The Shy-Away Top 40

26. Texans WR Kevin Walter - Walter is a quality real-life player. The return of Jacoby Jones and a healthy Owen Daniels will kill his consistency and make Walter an unappealing pick.

27. Seahawks WR Mike Williams - Traded out of the division, Williams won't be able to own Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's soul for 34 percent of his fantasy points. Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, and one of the league's worst QB situations reduce "BMW" from target monster to WR5/6.

28. Browns Wide Receivers - Colt McCoy provided hope in spots last season and the exhibition opener, but we still have doubts. It can't help McCoy's cause that slow-footed Brian Robiskie appears locked in as his starting split end (in theory, a big-play position) and flanker Mohamed Massaquoi has mysteriously missed all of camp. Rookie Greg Little has been quiet.

29. Patriots WR Deion Branch - With the arrival of Chad Ochocinco, Branch has been relegated to three-receiver sets in a two-tight end offense. If Taylor Price continues to light up the preseason, the Pats will have a tough decision at final cuts with Branch due a $2.2 million salary.

30. Broncos QB Kyle Orton - Orton's job is secure, but Denver's philosophical shift from a top-seven pass attempts team to 30 rushing attempts a game will torpedo his fantasy stock. This isn't a quarterback efficient or well-equipped enough to overcome a prehistoric offensive approach and maintain top-16 passing stats. And fans' clamoring for Tim Tebow won't stop anytime soon.

31. Bucs WR Arrelious Benn - The Bucs insist Benn's rep and preseason limitations were by design after his December ACL tear, but he should start feeling urgency. Recent reports out of Tampa indicate Dezmon Briscoe is making a serious push for the job opposite Mike Williams. There's reason to think Benn's recovery isn't going as smoothly as we were led to believe.

32. Chargers WR Malcom Floyd - Floyd was a top-16 fantasy receiver in points per game last season, but the return of Vincent Jackson and a supposedly healthy Antonio Gates move him down several notches. An improved running game won't help, either. Look for Floyd to resume his role as Philip Rivers' No. 3 receiving option, catching about 40 balls for 700 yards. He's a WR4/5.

33. Ravens Tight Ends - Neither Ed Dickson nor Dennis Pitta has separated himself in the race to replace Todd Heap. With Lee Evans clearing out the middle of the field for Anquan Boldin to operate, Dickson and Pitta are poised to cancel out each other's fantasy production.

34. Jaguars QB David Garrard - If you've read Rotoworld lately, you're aware Garrard's stint as the Jaguars' quarterback will end soon. Blaine Gabbert will make more starts this year.

35. Lions WR Titus Young - Falling behind special teamer Rashied Davis and former third-round bust Derrick Williams, Young hasn't practiced in full since camp opened due to a bum hamstring. He may begin the year as a Sunday scratch and can't be drafted in 12-team leagues.

36. Redskins RB Ryan Torain - Recovering well behind schedule from a fractured hand, Torain has been on the sideline with Tim Hightower taking over as the Skins' every-down back.

37. Chiefs WR Jonathan Baldwin - Baldwin couldn't beat press coverage early in camp, and also missed a significant amount of reps with a hamstring injury. On Thursday, Nick Wright of 610 Kansas City tweeted that he's "hearing bad things" about Baldwin's absence from the last two days of Chiefs practice. He'll begin the season as no better than Kansas City's fourth receiver.

38. Redskins WR Anthony Armstrong - Armstrong has been demoted to a No. 3 receiver behind Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney. Armstrong has no sleeper value after his career year.

39. Raiders WR Louis Murphy - The Raiders' top wide receiver in terms of catches and yards last season, Murphy is out indefinitely after surgery on an undisclosed body part. He'd fallen behind Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and possibly rookie Denarius Moore before the injury.

40. Vikings QB Donovan McNabb - McNabb is no longer mobile enough to handle the imminent pass-protection breakdowns that will result from Charlie Johnson's installation at left tackle. Be surprised if he lasts eight games. Christian Ponder is a lock to make starts in 2011.

We've seen each team play at least one preseason game and closely monitored camp reports on every skill player in the NFL. The recommendations in this column are inherently negative (look at the title), but based on the facts we've gleaned, represent an informed and reasoned projection.

Editor's Note: Get Rotoworld's updated rankings, projections, and fantasy analysis in the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

These are 40 players to shy away from in fantasy drafts, to varying degrees. We don't pretend to know the future, and would advise to use this as more of a tiebreaker than guideline of who not to pick. Fantasy owners need to be aware of risk factors as they pursue the best possible roster on draft day.

1. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson - Peterson remains a top-five fantasy player, but you have to use a top-two pick to get him according to the latest ADP data. That's awfully rich for a running back set to play behind the worst O-Line of his career. If you're taking him in the top three, you're betting Peterson's talent will consistently overcome a shortage of running lanes all season long.

2. Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew - You already know about his knee. Blaine Gabbert has now closed the gap on David Garrard, meaning a rookie may be under center in Jacksonville early in the season. The Jags had to cut top run-blocking guard Vince Manuwai for reporting out of shape, and right tackle Eben Britton is coming off back surgery. Red flags are piling up on MJD.

3. Colts WR Reggie Wayne - Wayne rode the in-season losses of Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzalez, and Joseph Addai to a career-high 111 receptions last year, but he struggled to beat man coverage in the final month while missing large chunks of practice time with a knee injury and resetting a career low in yards per catch. Wayne's big-play ability is declining, and his targets will too with all the above back.

4. Falcons RB Michael Turner - Turner has averaged a league-high 21 carries per game over the past three seasons and is 29 1/2 years old. With Atlanta deemphasizing the run in favor of a wide-open attack, Turner will have to score at the goal line to be start-worthy in a given week.

5. Saints WR Marques Colston - Colston has struggled to stay on the field in camp after the fifth knee surgery of his career, the latest of a microfracture variety. The Saints protected themselves by revamping the running game, re-signing slot receiver Lance Moore to a five-year, $20M deal (Colston often plays the slot), and planning to increase tight end Jimmy Graham's role.

6. Chargers TE Antonio Gates - Gates typically goes in the first few picks of round four, which is extremely early for a player who reported to training camp admitting that last year's foot woes will be an ongoing problem. Tight end is such a deep fantasy position that Gates isn't worth the risk. Vincent Jackson and a healthy Malcom Floyd also return to cut into Gates' pass targets.

7. Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin - Maclin's situation is scary because not even the Eagles know what ailed him all offseason. A prime start-slow candidate after losing a significant amount of weight, Maclin's early sixth-round ADP is alarmingly high. We'd take Mario Manningham, Percy Harvin, Austin Collie, and Kenny Britt before Maclin, and they're all available in the same vicinity.

8. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews - Mathews was the subject of uncontrollable offseason hype, but reality set in when Norv Turner declared the Chargers' backfield a two-man committee. While we like Mathews' talent, Mike Tolbert will steal goal-line TDs and receptions in big chunks.

9. Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas - The Fins plan to give Reggie Bush a legit chance at a feature-back role, and Thomas didn't help himself with a quiet training camp. Perhaps he'll be start-able when Bush gets hurt, but Thomas hasn't shown enough to go in the first six rounds.

10. Redskins TE Chris Cooley - Surgeries are supposed to fix the problematic area, but Cooley's January knee operation clearly didn't. He's been shut down indefinitely, with coach Mike Shanahan conceding Cooley's Week 1 status is in doubt. It's time to take Fred Davis seriously.



11. Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - BGE and Danny Woodhead were the first backs in for Thursday night's preseason game, but Stevan Ridley's 222 total yards and three scores are still fresh on the mind. Ridley has more talent and a more complete game than the incumbent. The Pats don't dole out snaps based on experience, so this could quickly become a competition.

12. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart - Stewart deserved better, but he was relegated to a clear backup role when the Panthers made DeAngelo Williams the highest-paid veteran running back in NFL history. Williams' five-year, $43 million contract with $21 million guaranteed indicates Stewart won't be more than a 6-8 carry-per-game back to open the season. He's not a flex starter.

13. Lions TE Brandon Pettigrew - Unlike Shaun Hill, Matthew Stafford's approach to the game is too aggressive for an oversized, plodding tight end to be a featured part of the passing attack. Tony Scheffler, a more athletic alternative at the position, is just as good a bet for targets.

14. Bills RB Fred Jackson - We've already broken down the NFL's offensive lines from 1-32, and Buffalo was lucky to not rank dead last. Now experimenting with former Redskins bust Chad Rinehart as a starting guard, the Bills will struggle to open holes this season. That's bad news for a 30-year-old running back whose touches are likely to diminish in favor of C.J. Spiller.

15. Bears QB Jay Cutler - The Bears' line has struggled to protect Cutler all camp, forcing OL coach Mike Tice to return to the drawing board this week with a new-look cast of starters. We liked the Mike Martz hire for Cutler's fantasy potential last offseason, but it became obvious quickly that Chicago lacked pass blockers to execute Martz's scheme. They might be worse year.

16. Bengals Wide Receivers - Jerome Simpson and rookie A.J. Green are down-the-field vertical threats now held hostage by a weak-armed rookie quarterback in an extremely run-heavy offense. Simpson and Green should both contribute a handful of big plays throughout the season, but consistency will be virtually impossible to come by. Green is a dicey WR3 in fantasy leagues.

17. Jets WR Plaxico Burress - Plax will have a hard time staying healthy after 18 months in prison at age 34, and the most telling sign was his inability to get on the practice field for the first two weeks of camp. The Jets would be smart to limit Burress' open-field snaps. He should still be able to make plays deep in the red zone, but 50 receptions is probably an unrealistic goal.

18. Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb - Larry Fitzgerald's enormous catch radius is a very big plus, but awful offensive tackle play, a far more balanced offense than he played in for the Eagles, and limited secondary receiver options are working against Kolb. There are at least five better QB2s.

19. Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez - Gonzo hit the skids last year, but he's still being drafted as a top-eight tight end over guys like Marcedes Lewis, Rob Gronkowski, and Kellen Winslow. Julio Jones and slot man Harry Douglas throw a large wrench into Gonzalez's fantasy potential.

20. Bears WR Roy Williams - Handed what may be his last chance at a significant NFL role, Williams reported to camp in less-than-peak condition and has performed poorly in practice. Bourbonnais observers have documented Williams' dropped passes, lackadaisical effort, and struggles in press coverage. Johnny Knox is the Bears' best option at X receiver, and has turned up the heat with several deep catches on the second team. The Bears need Knox to win this job.

21. Steelers WR Hines Ward - Ward was the No. 40 fantasy receiver last season, so he's past the point of lofty expectations. With Antonio Brown coming on extremely strong and talented 24-year-old Emmanuel Sanders due back from a foot injury in short order, however, Ward's ninth-round Average Draft Position is still a bit early. In all likelihood, he won't replicate last year's stats.

22. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson - Tomlinson received 219 carries last season, his legs petering out ominously down the stretch. L.T. may not see half that many this year with Shonn Greene enlisted as the Jets' "bell cow." Folks who've paid attention are aware of this, we realize.

23. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel - Cassel and Dwayne Bowe enjoyed career years in 2010 by preying on the league's softest pass defense schedule. Camp reports indicate Bowe dominated in St. Joseph, but Cassel isn't good enough to overcome tougher opponents in a passing game sure to regress. Drafters are smartly staying away, letting Cassel fall to the 11th round as the QB18.

24. Packers WR Donald Driver - He's in the same boat as Hines Ward. Everyone around him is young and getting better, while Driver is old and losing steam. After watching the preseason opener, it didn't take long to realize Randall Cobb can give Green Bay a much more explosive slot option. Driver's snaps and stats will continue to nosedive this season. He's barely worth a pick.

25. 49ers Wide Receivers - The 49ers' QB situation is headed for musical chairs and their wideouts will be end-of-the-bench fodder. Braylon Edwards is a WR4. Michael Crabtree is a WR5.



26. Texans WR Kevin Walter - Walter is a quality real-life player. The return of Jacoby Jones and a healthy Owen Daniels will kill his consistency and make Walter an unappealing pick.

27. Seahawks WR Mike Williams - Traded out of the division, Williams won't be able to own Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's soul for 34 percent of his fantasy points. Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, and one of the league's worst QB situations reduce "BMW" from target monster to WR5/6.

28. Browns Wide Receivers - Colt McCoy provided hope in spots last season and the exhibition opener, but we still have doubts. It can't help McCoy's cause that slow-footed Brian Robiskie appears locked in as his starting split end (in theory, a big-play position) and flanker Mohamed Massaquoi has mysteriously missed all of camp. Rookie Greg Little has been quiet.

29. Patriots WR Deion Branch - With the arrival of Chad Ochocinco, Branch has been relegated to three-receiver sets in a two-tight end offense. If Taylor Price continues to light up the preseason, the Pats will have a tough decision at final cuts with Branch due a $2.2 million salary.

30. Broncos QB Kyle Orton - Orton's job is secure, but Denver's philosophical shift from a top-seven pass attempts team to 30 rushing attempts a game will torpedo his fantasy stock. This isn't a quarterback efficient or well-equipped enough to overcome a prehistoric offensive approach and maintain top-16 passing stats. And fans' clamoring for Tim Tebow won't stop anytime soon.

31. Bucs WR Arrelious Benn - The Bucs insist Benn's rep and preseason limitations were by design after his December ACL tear, but he should start feeling urgency. Recent reports out of Tampa indicate Dezmon Briscoe is making a serious push for the job opposite Mike Williams. There's reason to think Benn's recovery isn't going as smoothly as we were led to believe.

32. Chargers WR Malcom Floyd - Floyd was a top-16 fantasy receiver in points per game last season, but the return of Vincent Jackson and a supposedly healthy Antonio Gates move him down several notches. An improved running game won't help, either. Look for Floyd to resume his role as Philip Rivers' No. 3 receiving option, catching about 40 balls for 700 yards. He's a WR4/5.

33. Ravens Tight Ends - Neither Ed Dickson nor Dennis Pitta has separated himself in the race to replace Todd Heap. With Lee Evans clearing out the middle of the field for Anquan Boldin to operate, Dickson and Pitta are poised to cancel out each other's fantasy production.

34. Jaguars QB David Garrard - If you've read Rotoworld lately, you're aware Garrard's stint as the Jaguars' quarterback will end soon. Blaine Gabbert will make more starts this year.

35. Lions WR Titus Young - Falling behind special teamer Rashied Davis and former third-round bust Derrick Williams, Young hasn't practiced in full since camp opened due to a bum hamstring. He may begin the year as a Sunday scratch and can't be drafted in 12-team leagues.

36. Redskins RB Ryan Torain - Recovering well behind schedule from a fractured hand, Torain has been on the sideline with Tim Hightower taking over as the Skins' every-down back.

37. Chiefs WR Jonathan Baldwin - Baldwin couldn't beat press coverage early in camp, and also missed a significant amount of reps with a hamstring injury. On Thursday, Nick Wright of 610 Kansas City tweeted that he's "hearing bad things" about Baldwin's absence from the last two days of Chiefs practice. He'll begin the season as no better than Kansas City's fourth receiver.

38. Redskins WR Anthony Armstrong - Armstrong has been demoted to a No. 3 receiver behind Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney. Armstrong has no sleeper value after his career year.

39. Raiders WR Louis Murphy - The Raiders' top wide receiver in terms of catches and yards last season, Murphy is out indefinitely after surgery on an undisclosed body part. He'd fallen behind Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and possibly rookie Denarius Moore before the injury.

40. Vikings QB Donovan McNabb - McNabb is no longer mobile enough to handle the imminent pass-protection breakdowns that will result from Charlie Johnson's installation at left tackle. Be surprised if he lasts eight games. Christian Ponder is a lock to make starts in 2011.