Down with ADP: QBs & RBs

Running Backs

First Round ADP

Arian Foster, 1.02
Adrian Peterson, 1.02
Jamaal Charles, 1.04
Ray Rice, 1.04
Chris Johnson, 1.05
LeSean McCoy, 1.08
Rashard Mendenhall, 1.09

Foster looked great in his first preseason game. All things considered, it's hard to argue against him at No. 1 overall. … The Rotoworld brain trust is split on Adrian Peterson. Evan Silva is worried about the offensive line crumbling while Gregg Rosenthal points out Peterson's unbelievably consistently run of four straight top-three fantasy finishes. I'm with Rosey on this one. I'd also like to point out that two of Peterson's top-three finishes came in 2009 and 2010, running behind Pro Football Focus' 28th- and 32nd-ranked run-blocking line in the NFL. This is nothing new for All Day.

I don't have any sage advice on Chris Johnson other than to emphasize that disputes generally don't get solved in the NFL until the last minute. If he's dropping to the fifth or sixth pick, I'm jumping all over him and handcuffing Javon Ringer in the 13th round or so. The missed training camp doesn't concern me in the least. He's a running back -- just give him the ball and tell him to run like Forrest Gump. Each owner will have to decide on their own risk tolerance regarding the contract squabble. … There's a substantial gap between the first five backs and the next group, but you already knew that.

Second Round ADP

Maurice Jones-Drew, 2.01
Darren McFadden, 2.02
Michael Turner, 2.03
Frank Gore, 2.06
Steven Jackson, 2.08
Matt Forte, 2.11

Rotoworld lumps McFadden in with McCoy and Mendenhall, so we certainly believe he's a bargain at this price. Despite an early-camp performance that was labeled "spectacular," McFadden has actually seen his ADP drop from late-first to early-second over the past three weeks. DMC is already practicing again, so the fractured orbital bone is no concern whatsoever. … The primary concerns with Turner, Gore, and S-Jax are age and workload. … So far so good for Jones-Drew's knee, though questions about his workload remain. … Forte is a safe pick, but Marion Barber looks like the goal-line back.

Third-Fourth Round ADP

Peyton Hillis, 3.02
LeGarrette Blount, 3.02
Ahmad Bradshaw, 3.08
Shonn Greene, 3.09
Jahvid Best, 4.02
Knowshon Moreno, 4.07
DeAngelo Williams, 4.08
Felix Jones, 4.08
Ryan Mathews, 4.08

With the exception of one back, this is another group with very little separation. Jones' injury history may be cause for pause, but he's the one with the best odds of joining the first tier of fantasy backs if health cooperates. A change-of-pace and Mr. Outside to Marion Barber's Mr. Inside early in his career, Jones has emerged as a complete back since camp started. In addition to his trademark homerun-hitting ability, Jones is now lowering his pads and finishing off runs in preseason action. Throw in an explosive offense and the league's best run-blocking line, and Jones has all the ingredients for a top-10 fantasy season.

Greene and Blount don't contribute on passing downs. I'm letting someone else deal with the possibility of a weekly kidney-punch if there's no trip to the end zone. … Mathews and Bradshaw are being drafted as full-fledged feature backs even though they're clearly in committee attacks. The ADP is a round too high on both. … Best is another injury risk but a potential goldmine in PPR leagues.

Fifth-Sixth Round ADP

Ryan Grant, 5.03
Mark Ingram, 5.04
Cedric Benson, 6.02
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 6.02
Beanie Wells, 6.06
Daniel Thomas, 6.06
Marshawn Lynch, 6.08
Fred Jackson, 6.12

Ingram should be going at least a round -- if not two -- higher. As Footballguys.com's Jason Wood argues, the myths working against Ingram are easily debunked. The Saints aren't too pass-heavy to support a top fantasy back, coach Sean Payton hasn't always enforced a committee backfield, and rookie running backs have enjoyed plenty of fantasy success over the past half-decade. Even if he begins the season splitting touches with Pierre Thomas, Ingram is locked in as the red-zone back with the potential for 12-15 touchdowns in a high-scoring offense. The first-rounder has turned enough heads in camp that the New Orleans Times-Picayune is predicting a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. Go Bold with Ingram; this horse will pay off.

The other back to target in this group is Wells, who has the look of a 275-touch workhorse with Ryan Williams out for the season. … I'd make Grant someone else's concern. He's going to have to hold off James Starks all season long. … Benson is Bengalized. … Thomas is behind Reggie Bush and has shown no ability to get more than what's blocked. … Lynch, Green-Ellis, and F-Jax are pure RB3/flex options. Lynch is an ordinary talent stuck in a bad offense, BJGE will have to hold off better talents, and Jackson is now locked in a battle with C.J. Spiller.

Seventh-Ninth Round ADP

Joseph Addai, 7.03
Mike Tolbert, 7.06
Tim Hightower, 7.11
Jonathan Stewart, 7.12
Reggie Bush, 7.12
Pierre Thomas, 8.05
LaDainian Tomlinson, 8.12
Brandon Jacobs, 8.12
Michael Bush, 9.07
James Starks, 9.08
C.J. Spiller, 9.12

Locked in as the Redskins' starter, Hightower is the back to target as a RB3 if he falls this far. … The Dolphins are intent on making Reggie Bush a feature back, and the early returns are surprisingly promising. The injury-prone dancer is entering uncharted waters in year six, though. Let someone else reach in standard-scoring leagues. … Jacobs could end up leading the Giants' backfield in yards and scores. … Spiller's ADP should rise now that he's pushing Fred Jackson, though all Bills are hands-off behind an embarrassing collection of talent on the O-Line. … Addai is an injury risk and "just a guy" as an NFL talent. … Tomlinson is showing no leg drive. … Stewart, Thomas, Michael Bush, and James Starks are high-end handcuffs.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.

With training camps wrapping up and two exhibition games in the books, depth charts are solidifying and clear drafts trends are starting to emerge. Using Fantasy Football Calculator's Average Draft Position tool, I've focused in on players to target and others to avoid in this year's drafts. Below is a breakdown of the quarterbacks and runningbacks. I'll deconstruct the wide receivers and tight ends in the next ADP analysis.

Editor's Note: Get Rotoworld's updated rankings, projections, and fantasy analysis in the 2011 Fantasy Football Draft Guide.

Quarterbacks

First Round ADP

Michael Vick, 1.07
Aaron Rodgers, 1.11

Weekly fantasy points by team QB in 2010:

1. Eagles - 25.06
2. Packers - 23.00
3. Patriots - 22.94
4. Colts - 21.31
5. Broncos - 20.63
6. Chargers - 20.56
7. Saints - 20.50
8. Cowboys - 18.75

Vick's per week average is the outlier at 28.08 -- more than one passing score per week better than any other QB. I was asked on Twitter over the weekend, "What's the biggest key to winning fantasy football championships?" My answer has always been: Swing for the fences. Collect the players who give your team a weekly advantage over the rest of the owners in the league. As all of the 2010 Vick owners with championship banners can attest, he was the preeminent difference-maker last season.

Fast-forward eight months and all those without Vick on their team last season forget that he put more trophies on the mantle than any other player. Detractors cry "injury-prone" and wring their hands over his alleged late-season slide. That's fine. Just note that Vick has played 15+ games in all but one season that he entered as the starter. It's hard to believe Rodgers is widely viewed as a "safer" pick after last year's concussion issues. For all of the talk of Vick's trouble reading blitzes in December, he closed out the season as the top fantasy QB over the final month -- averaging more than 30 points per week. He's a no-brainer as the top fantasy QB and a first-round pick.

Second-Fourth Round ADP

Tom Brady, 2.07
Philip Rivers, 3.03
Drew Brees, 3.06
Peyton Manning, 4.02
Tony Romo, 4.09

The Rotoworld Draft Guide confidently ranks Brady as the No. 3 QB. As Gregg Rosenthal points out, though, there's very little separation among the QBs in this tier. Unless you're convinced Brady is a lock for 40+ scores with a red-zone juggernaut, there's no reason to reach for any one of these QBs in the second or early-third round. … Romo may well be the best value here.

Fifth-Seventh Round ADP

Matt Schaub, 5.09
Matt Ryan, 6.04
Ben Roethlisberger, 6.11
Josh Freeman, 7.12

Two QBs stand out from the crowd here -- Ryan and Big Ben. Both are elite NFL signal-callers entering the season with the deepest collection of receivers they've ever enjoyed. Roethlisberger is in the best physical shape of his career, and Ryan is primed for an MVP-level season with explosive rookie Julio Jones and revitalized slot receiver Harry Douglas emerging as dangerous down-field weapons. I can't emphasize this enough: target Ryan late in the fifth or early in the sixth if you opt to bypass the top seven QBs. … Schaub and Freeman are both overrated at their current ADPs.

Eighth-Tenth Round ADP

Matthew Stafford, 8.06
Eli Manning, 9.01
Sam Bradford, 9.07
Kevin Kolb, 10.03
Joe Flacco, 10.05
Jay Cutler, 10.12

Breakout candidates Stafford and Bradford are the cream of this crop and could very well finish Nos. 1-2 in pass attempts this season. Don't play it safe if you've waited this long to address the position. Go for a QB who at least has the potential to keep up with the rest of the owners in the league if things break right. … Manning is commonly cited as a bargain. I wouldn't be so certain after losing safety blankets Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. … Flacco is a better pick with perfect match Lee Evans finally lending a deep speed element. … Kolb's ADP is too high behind a brutal pass-blocking offensive line.



Running Backs

First Round ADP

Arian Foster, 1.02
Adrian Peterson, 1.02
Jamaal Charles, 1.04
Ray Rice, 1.04
Chris Johnson, 1.05
LeSean McCoy, 1.08
Rashard Mendenhall, 1.09

Foster looked great in his first preseason game. All things considered, it's hard to argue against him at No. 1 overall. … The Rotoworld brain trust is split on Adrian Peterson. Evan Silva is worried about the offensive line crumbling while Gregg Rosenthal points out Peterson's unbelievably consistently run of four straight top-three fantasy finishes. I'm with Rosey on this one. I'd also like to point out that two of Peterson's top-three finishes came in 2009 and 2010, running behind Pro Football Focus' 28th- and 32nd-ranked run-blocking line in the NFL. This is nothing new for All Day.

I don't have any sage advice on Chris Johnson other than to emphasize that disputes generally don't get solved in the NFL until the last minute. If he's dropping to the fifth or sixth pick, I'm jumping all over him and handcuffing Javon Ringer in the 13th round or so. The missed training camp doesn't concern me in the least. He's a running back -- just give him the ball and tell him to run like Forrest Gump. Each owner will have to decide on their own risk tolerance regarding the contract squabble. … There's a substantial gap between the first five backs and the next group, but you already knew that.

Second Round ADP

Maurice Jones-Drew, 2.01
Darren McFadden, 2.02
Michael Turner, 2.03
Frank Gore, 2.06
Steven Jackson, 2.08
Matt Forte, 2.11

Rotoworld lumps McFadden in with McCoy and Mendenhall, so we certainly believe he's a bargain at this price. Despite an early-camp performance that was labeled "spectacular," McFadden has actually seen his ADP drop from late-first to early-second over the past three weeks. DMC is already practicing again, so the fractured orbital bone is no concern whatsoever. … The primary concerns with Turner, Gore, and S-Jax are age and workload. … So far so good for Jones-Drew's knee, though questions about his workload remain. … Forte is a safe pick, but Marion Barber looks like the goal-line back.

Third-Fourth Round ADP

Peyton Hillis, 3.02
LeGarrette Blount, 3.02
Ahmad Bradshaw, 3.08
Shonn Greene, 3.09
Jahvid Best, 4.02
Knowshon Moreno, 4.07
DeAngelo Williams, 4.08
Felix Jones, 4.08
Ryan Mathews, 4.08

With the exception of one back, this is another group with very little separation. Jones' injury history may be cause for pause, but he's the one with the best odds of joining the first tier of fantasy backs if health cooperates. A change-of-pace and Mr. Outside to Marion Barber's Mr. Inside early in his career, Jones has emerged as a complete back since camp started. In addition to his trademark homerun-hitting ability, Jones is now lowering his pads and finishing off runs in preseason action. Throw in an explosive offense and the league's best run-blocking line, and Jones has all the ingredients for a top-10 fantasy season.

Greene and Blount don't contribute on passing downs. I'm letting someone else deal with the possibility of a weekly kidney-punch if there's no trip to the end zone. … Mathews and Bradshaw are being drafted as full-fledged feature backs even though they're clearly in committee attacks. The ADP is a round too high on both. … Best is another injury risk but a potential goldmine in PPR leagues.

Fifth-Sixth Round ADP

Ryan Grant, 5.03
Mark Ingram, 5.04
Cedric Benson, 6.02
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 6.02
Beanie Wells, 6.06
Daniel Thomas, 6.06
Marshawn Lynch, 6.08
Fred Jackson, 6.12

Ingram should be going at least a round -- if not two -- higher. As Footballguys.com's Jason Wood argues, the myths working against Ingram are easily debunked. The Saints aren't too pass-heavy to support a top fantasy back, coach Sean Payton hasn't always enforced a committee backfield, and rookie running backs have enjoyed plenty of fantasy success over the past half-decade. Even if he begins the season splitting touches with Pierre Thomas, Ingram is locked in as the red-zone back with the potential for 12-15 touchdowns in a high-scoring offense. The first-rounder has turned enough heads in camp that the New Orleans Times-Picayune is predicting a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. Go Bold with Ingram; this horse will pay off.

The other back to target in this group is Wells, who has the look of a 275-touch workhorse with Ryan Williams out for the season. … I'd make Grant someone else's concern. He's going to have to hold off James Starks all season long. … Benson is Bengalized. … Thomas is behind Reggie Bush and has shown no ability to get more than what's blocked. … Lynch, Green-Ellis, and F-Jax are pure RB3/flex options. Lynch is an ordinary talent stuck in a bad offense, BJGE will have to hold off better talents, and Jackson is now locked in a battle with C.J. Spiller.

Seventh-Ninth Round ADP

Joseph Addai, 7.03
Mike Tolbert, 7.06
Tim Hightower, 7.11
Jonathan Stewart, 7.12
Reggie Bush, 7.12
Pierre Thomas, 8.05
LaDainian Tomlinson, 8.12
Brandon Jacobs, 8.12
Michael Bush, 9.07
James Starks, 9.08
C.J. Spiller, 9.12

Locked in as the Redskins' starter, Hightower is the back to target as a RB3 if he falls this far. … The Dolphins are intent on making Reggie Bush a feature back, and the early returns are surprisingly promising. The injury-prone dancer is entering uncharted waters in year six, though. Let someone else reach in standard-scoring leagues. … Jacobs could end up leading the Giants' backfield in yards and scores. … Spiller's ADP should rise now that he's pushing Fred Jackson, though all Bills are hands-off behind an embarrassing collection of talent on the O-Line. … Addai is an injury risk and "just a guy" as an NFL talent. … Tomlinson is showing no leg drive. … Stewart, Thomas, Michael Bush, and James Starks are high-end handcuffs.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.