Quarterback Tiers of Heaven
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
These are the borderline, low-end QB1s. Schaub's fantasy ranking is likely to drop for a second straight season as Houston evolves into a running offense coordinated by former line coach Rick Dennison.
Arian Foster and
Ben Tate are a dynamic duo, and the Texans won't play from behind as much with improvement on defense. Don't draft Schaub thinking he's a top-ten quarterback.
To this point in his career, Flacco's big arm has gone to waste surrounded by possession receivers in a run-heavy offense. Baltimore has ranked 30th, 25th, and 24th in pass attempts during Flacco's three years as a starter. There is reason to believe Flacco could turn the corner with
Lee Evans lighting up the preseason, but it's a "prove-it" year for Flacco in fantasy terms.
Freeman will hit tough sledding with a far more difficult schedule than he faced last season. Until the Bucs remove the training wheels and open up the offense, Freeman will be a better real-life NFL than fantasy quarterback. He's the most commonly overdrafted QB.
Manning hasn't finished better than No. 9 among fantasy quarterbacks in six years, and struggled throughout camp and preseason. The Giants' offense would operate much more smoothly getting back to its run-heavy approach of 2007 and 2008. Like Freeman, Eli is often overdrafted.
Bradford may have the highest ceiling in this group. He'll be top five in pass attempts assuming good health, and the Josh McDaniels factor could help push Bradford into the top-ten QBs. We see the St. Louis supporting cast as limiting, but we could be wrong. He's our favorite QB2.
One of our favorite quarterback pairings is Stafford as a fantasy starter backed up by Bradford, drafting them consecutively in the middle rounds after loading up early on receivers and backs.
Mid-range to low-end QB2s. Sanchez and Cassel play in run-heavy offenses and lack QB1-caliber talent. Cutler has all the skill in the world, but a horrible situation from a fantasy perspective. Kolb has one proven playmaker in his pass-catching corps, and an offensive line that threatens to tank.
Tier Six: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Donovan McNabb, Cam Newton, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Colt McCoy, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, John Beck, Alex Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, Andy Dalton
Bottom-barrel QB2s and Week 1 starters. Fitzpatrick, McNabb, and Orton are draft-able, but still undesirable. McNabb does have more security than anticipated with
Christian Ponder struggling in August. The change from Josh McDaniels' pass-happy offense to John Fox's prehistoric approach is a death knell for Orton. Keep a close eye on Newton, McCoy, and Beck from this group.
Tier Seven: Tim Tebow, Vince Young, Charlie Whitehurst, Rex Grossman, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Bruce Gradkowski, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Moore, Shaun Hill, Matt Flynn, Tyler Thigpen, Seneca Wallace, Jon Kitna, Jake Locker, Matt Leinart, Caleb Hanie, Jimmy Clausen, Chase Daniel, Sage Rosenfels, Tyrod Taylor, Kerry Collins, Brian Hoyer
All of these players are expected to be backups in Week 1, though Tebow, Young, Daniel, Flynn, and Hoyer would all be intriguing if they fell into playing time. Leinart, Kitna, and Rosenfels could be buoyed by enough surrounding talent to qualify as QB2s in the event of a starter's injury.
Serious fantasy leaguers enter drafts with store-bought magazines, online printouts, and top-200 cheatsheets. Unprepared owners use pre-set rankings on Yahoo or ESPN. At Rotoworld, we are often asked our personal preference for pre-draft approach. Our answer is a system of tiers organized to maximize value with every pick in every round of a draft.
Entering your draft, think of yourself as a talent collector with a big-picture outlook. Magazines are outdated the instant they hit shelves. Cheatsheets don't keep value in proper perspective. Online printouts can be too cumbersome, especially in a fast-moving draft.
Our Tiers of Heaven are the way to go. Here's why:
Your late third-round pick is approaching.
Drew Brees is high in your Top 200, and you haven't drafted a quarterback. It looks like a no-brainer.
You already have two starting running backs, but a flex position open. Checking your tiers, you notice that
Felix Jones is the only player available from the third tier of backs. You don't necessarily need another one, but there is a huge drop-off after Jones. Taking a rare every-down running back maximizes value, and you should have a realistic shot at one of the remaining second-tier quarterbacks with your next selection.
Felix is the choice.
Don't enter your draft with some sort of positional strategy (e.g. RB-WR, RB-RB). Take the best player available and max out the value. Onto the quarterback tiers.
In a standard league (4 points for passing TDs), these are the two quarterbacks we'd seriously consider in round one. Vick has a cannon arm and is surrounded by playmakers in a pass-first offense. He could probably be one of the NFL's better running backs if he changed positions. The most dangerous offensive player in football, Vick is worth consideration in the top-five picks.
As good as Vick's is, there isn't a better supporting cast in the league than Rodgers'. Green Bay's offensive line is more trustworthy than Philadelphia's, and
Jermichael Finley's return puts him over the top. Rodgers will put up similar passing stats to Brady, Brees, Rivers, Manning, and Romo, although it's his running ability that gives Rodgers a big leg up. He's scrambled for 13 touchdowns across the past three seasons, and averaged more than 20 rushing yards per start over the past two.
One nice thing about drafting Vick or Rodgers is that you don't necessarily have to spend a mid-round pick on a QB2 to protect against injury.
Vince Young and
Matt Flynn would both be plug-and-play QB1s if the starter went down, and they go undrafted in standard leagues. For owners that pick first-round quarterbacks, it isn't at all crazy to use your last-round pick on V.Y. or Flynn.
The rest of the surefire every-week starters. You draft these QBs in the second to fifth rounds and start them regardless of opponent. They're all weekly threats for 300 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Romo is our favorite value of the group. He has two No. 1-caliber wide receivers, the best all-around tight end in the game, and an offense rearing to feature the pass. Romo can often be found available in the early portion of round five.
Brady's Average Draft Position is the late second round. He has perhaps the league's best pass-protecting line to keep him upright, and an intriguing mix of youthful and veteran pass catchers to throw to. Brady gets a bump in leagues that penalize more heavily for turnovers. His touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past three seasons is 114:25. Reduced, that's 4.56-to-1.
Brees is going in the middle of round three. His pass attempts will drop with a better defense and running game, but he'll be more efficient. We'd probably still hope he dropped to round four before drafting him.
Manning's neck injury has pushed his ADP all the way to the end of round four. Our money is on Manning starting the season opener. If he does, that value is ripe for the picking.
These quarterbacks all have upside to jump into the top two tiers, particularly Ryan and Stafford. If the third preseason game was any indication (42 first-half pass attempts), the Falcons will run a no-huddle, shotgun attack with an extremely aggressive mentality.
Michael Turner is slowing down and Atlanta's best talent is now in the pass game, so the new approach makes too much sense.
Fantasy leaguers are wary of Stafford's durability, but there's nothing to suggest he's injury prone. He's been a victim of bad luck. The Lions will be forced to rely heavily on Stafford's arm after losing power back
Mikel Leshoure, and they were already a top-three team in pass attempts. We'll go ahead and guarantee 30 passing scores and 4,000 yards if Stafford stays healthy. Last year, Lions quarterbacks (also
Shaun Hill and
Drew Stanton) combined for 3,810 yards and 26 TDs. Stafford only played three games.
Roethlisberger is a wildcard. He was the No. 4 fantasy QB in 2007, No. 18 in 2008, No. 9 in 2009, and No. 7 in points per game last season after returning from suspension. But he's still frequently overlooked in fantasy circles. The 2010 emergence of
Mike Wallace and
Antonio Brown's 2011 preseason stardom give Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians plenty of reason to air it out. Yet Roethlisberger is often available as a seventh- to eighth-round QB2.
We have a lot of faith in all three of the above, though Stafford and Roethlisberger may require quality QB2 protection due to injury and/or offensive line concerns.
These are the borderline, low-end QB1s. Schaub's fantasy ranking is likely to drop for a second straight season as Houston evolves into a running offense coordinated by former line coach Rick Dennison.
Arian Foster and
Ben Tate are a dynamic duo, and the Texans won't play from behind as much with improvement on defense. Don't draft Schaub thinking he's a top-ten quarterback.
To this point in his career, Flacco's big arm has gone to waste surrounded by possession receivers in a run-heavy offense. Baltimore has ranked 30th, 25th, and 24th in pass attempts during Flacco's three years as a starter. There is reason to believe Flacco could turn the corner with
Lee Evans lighting up the preseason, but it's a "prove-it" year for Flacco in fantasy terms.
Freeman will hit tough sledding with a far more difficult schedule than he faced last season. Until the Bucs remove the training wheels and open up the offense, Freeman will be a better real-life NFL than fantasy quarterback. He's the most commonly overdrafted QB.
Manning hasn't finished better than No. 9 among fantasy quarterbacks in six years, and struggled throughout camp and preseason. The Giants' offense would operate much more smoothly getting back to its run-heavy approach of 2007 and 2008. Like Freeman, Eli is often overdrafted.
Bradford may have the highest ceiling in this group. He'll be top five in pass attempts assuming good health, and the Josh McDaniels factor could help push Bradford into the top-ten QBs. We see the St. Louis supporting cast as limiting, but we could be wrong. He's our favorite QB2.
One of our favorite quarterback pairings is Stafford as a fantasy starter backed up by Bradford, drafting them consecutively in the middle rounds after loading up early on receivers and backs.
Mid-range to low-end QB2s. Sanchez and Cassel play in run-heavy offenses and lack QB1-caliber talent. Cutler has all the skill in the world, but a horrible situation from a fantasy perspective. Kolb has one proven playmaker in his pass-catching corps, and an offensive line that threatens to tank.
Tier Six: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Donovan McNabb, Cam Newton, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Colt McCoy, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, John Beck, Alex Smith, Tarvaris Jackson, Andy Dalton
Bottom-barrel QB2s and Week 1 starters. Fitzpatrick, McNabb, and Orton are draft-able, but still undesirable. McNabb does have more security than anticipated with
Christian Ponder struggling in August. The change from Josh McDaniels' pass-happy offense to John Fox's prehistoric approach is a death knell for Orton. Keep a close eye on Newton, McCoy, and Beck from this group.
Tier Seven: Tim Tebow, Vince Young, Charlie Whitehurst, Rex Grossman, Colin Kaepernick, Christian Ponder, Bruce Gradkowski, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Moore, Shaun Hill, Matt Flynn, Tyler Thigpen, Seneca Wallace, Jon Kitna, Jake Locker, Matt Leinart, Caleb Hanie, Jimmy Clausen, Chase Daniel, Sage Rosenfels, Tyrod Taylor, Kerry Collins, Brian Hoyer
All of these players are expected to be backups in Week 1, though Tebow, Young, Daniel, Flynn, and Hoyer would all be intriguing if they fell into playing time. Leinart, Kitna, and Rosenfels could be buoyed by enough surrounding talent to qualify as QB2s in the event of a starter's injury.