Cold Sheet
Peyton Problem: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai
Manning is almost certainly done for the season. For the first time in his career, he's now an injury risk coming off three neck surgies. He will be 36 years old entering the 2012 season. ... Forget Wayne's 100-yard game in the opener. It won't happen on a regular basis with Kerry Collins under center. Sell now if possible. Wayne will be a WR3 this year only to enter 2012 as a 33-year-old free agent facing an uncertain future. ... Collie isn't playing in two-receiver sets, making him useless for 2011. ... Garcon is overrated and unlikely to produce without Manning. ... Clark always derived a good portion of his value from his QB. Now that he's blocking more, he's a poor bet for sustained TE1 productioin in 2011. Clark will turn 33 years old next June, and tight ends don't age as well as receivers. ... Addai is a passing-down specialist playing in an offense that now wants to run more with Manning out.
Production Problem: Shonn Greene, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Cassel
Evan Silva covered Greene's issues succinctly Sunday night: 1. He's not that good. 2. The Jets O-Line isn't as good as it was two years ago. 3. Greene won't touch the ball when the Jets fall behind. I'd add that it's been a concern that he couldn't beat out Thomas Jones and LaDainian Tomlinson, two backs clearly on the decline, in 2009-2010. ... More from Silva: Marshawn Lynch is the worst starting RB in the NFL. I can't take issue with that based on Lynch's career to date or his recent production. ... Cassel's numbers since Charlie Weis announced his decision to leave the Chiefs late last season: 42-of-87 (48.3%), 101.3 yds/game, 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio, 3.49 YPA.
Past Prime: Donovan McNabb, Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, Chad Ochocinco, Chris Cooley
The increasingly accuracy-challenged McNabb is devoid of value after his 39-yard performance in the opener. ... S-Jax looked plodding in preseason action only to go down with an injury to the same quad that limited him to 12 games back in 2008. He's on the downslope. ... Grant has been a step slow since training camp opened while James Starks looks bigger and explosive. ... Ochocinco is now an overpaid sixth option in the Pats passing game. ... Cooley may battle a knee injury all season as Fred Davis leaves him in the dust.
Dysfunctional Offense: Eli Manning, Dwayne Bowe, Marcedes Lewis
Eli "did not have the best of training camps" and has been "out of sync" with his receivers. There's now talk of the Giants trying to "manufacture" wins this season behind a strong running game and an opportunistic defense. Eli clearly misses Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. ... Re: Bowe. See Cassel's numbers above. ... Lewis is battling a calf strain while the Jaguars move to a run-dominant offense under Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert.
Injury Concerns: Marques Colston, Michael Crabtree, Knowshon Moreno
Colston has a plate in his shoulder after fracturing his collarbone. It's at least his sixth surgical procedure as a pro. Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson noted that Colston didn't look quite as dynamic in the opener coming off his second microfracture knee surgery (one to each knee). ... Will Crabtree's twice surgically repaired left foot be a problem for the rest of his career? He's already conceded it will be an issue all season. ... For all of the talk about Moreno being in the best shape of his career during training camp, he's once again sidelined by a hamstring injury. He just can't stay healthy.
Snap Count: Arian Foster, James Jones, LeGarrette Blount, DeAngelo Williams
Foster remains a valuable Dynasty asset, one of the most skilled backs in the league, and a fantasy stud, but the Kenton Keith corollary made an appearance in Week 1. If the offense can function without missing a beat with its star running back on the sidelines, the player may not be so uniquely talented after all. If Ben Tate can make a run at the rushing title under a starter's workload, it's hardly ideal for Foster's long-term stability. ... Jones is at best the fifth option in Green Bay's aerial attack -- and possibly as low as the sixth or seventh. He never should have re-signed with the Packers. ... Blount is more talented than Shonn Greene, but shares many of the same issues from a fantasy perspective. ... Williams is making "the big sweet dollars, the kwan," but he was outplayed by Jonathan Stewart in the opener.
Hot Sheet
Editor's Note: This is a free one-week preview of Chris Wesseling's Dynasty column that appears every Friday in Rotoworld's Season Pass. Chris may not go into as much depth with his comments on a regular basis, but the general concept is the same. There will be analysis of 15 players rising and a section devoted to players falling as well.
I'm switching gears this year, transitioning from the Dynasty Stock Report to the Dynasty Hot Sheet. The change was inspired by Baseball America's Baseball Hot Sheet, which is billed as a " snapshot of which top prospects are excelling and which ones are struggling" as opposed to a straight ranking of players. On to the list:
1. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: We covered Newton's historic NFL debut in full detail in Monday's Morning After column. It may not be long before he's the second-most exciting player in the league behind Michael Vick.
2. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: Ex-scout and current NFL.com analyst Bucky Brooks breaks down Hernandez's offensive role, forcing opponents to declare coverage to Tom Brady. I said Monday night that Hernandez and Gronkowski are both top-six NFL tight ends right now. Throw out the positions if it's a mental block. As PFT's Gregg Rosenthal explains, Hernandez and Gronkowski are "essentially the No. 2 and No. 3 receivers for New England behind Wes Welker." Hernandez hasn't even reached his 22nd birthday yet.
3. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: Did you pay attention early in training camp when the Boston Herald's Ian Rapoport advised "betting the farm" that Gronk would earn not only Pro Bowl honors but All-Pro status this season? When terms like man among boys, absolute beast, and uncoverable start to make appearances, the antennae should be going crazy. Pro Football Focus' @Bryan_Fontaine explains why Hernandez and Gronkowski can co-exist as top-10 Dynasty tight ends.
4. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: After a 154.7 preseason passer rating, Stafford strolled out to 265 yards and two touchdowns by halftime of the season opener. The Lions have no interest in running a balanced offense this season, leaving Stafford as a guaranteed top-five fantasy QB in an age-23 breakout season -- with the obvious health caveat.
5. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: Rice had fantasy owners kicking themselves for not trusting their gut at No. 1 overall when he flashed 2009 form against the Steelers in Week 1. Showing exceptional burst, balance, and body control, Rice notched his second 100-yard game against Pittsburgh -- the only two century-mark performances against the NFC North bosses in their last 51 games. He's a top-five Dynasty asset.
6. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers: The NFL opener proved once again that Nelson is well ahead of James Jones on the depth chart and gliding past Donald Driver in the pecking order. In fact, since the start of last year's playoffs, Nelson has caught more passes from Aaron Rodgers than any other receiver on the team. With an embarrassment of riches, Rodgers simply throws to the open receiver. As Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley draw defenders away, Nelson is constantly burning single coverage.
7. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: From the Bold Predictions section of Rotoworld's Draft Guide: "A revitalized still has the ability to lead all wide receivers in fantasy points if he gets out of Carolina. With an improved QB, he's good for a top-5 fantasy finish in 2011." Smith didn't get out of Carolina, but Cam Newton's Week 1 performance bodes well for his chances of revisiting WR1 territory at age 32. The difference-making talent is still there.
8. Chad Henne, QB, Dolphins: With scat-back Reggie Bush and power-challenged Daniel Thomas in the backfield, the Dolphins have morphed into a pass-first offense under newly aggressive play-caller Brian Daboll. No longer gun-shy, Henne played his best game as a pro in a losing effort, combining with Tom Brady for most single-game net passing yards in NFL history. Along with Matt Cassel and Hall of Famers Steve Young and Bobby Layne, Henne became just the fourth player in NFL history with 400+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards in the same game. If the light has finally clicked, Henne is in line for a breakout season in an offense that can't run the ball. I'm not convinced the light has clicked, but the lack of check-downs is a promising start.
9. James Starks, RB, Packers: It's not often that a running back bulks up and gains explosiveness, but Starts showed more decisiveness, power, and patience in the NFL opener. Even a casual observer could see the wide chasm in talent between Starks and Ryan Grant against the Saints. Starks played 45 snaps compared to just 16 for Grant, and coach Mike McCarthy plans to continue in that direction. Starks has a chance to grab hold of the feature-back reins in the NFL's best offense for the next 2-3 seasons.
10. Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: In the tight end version of Starks vs. Grant, Davis vaulted past a declining Chris Cooley in the season opener. Davis consistently found holes in the Giants secondary and racked up huge yardage after the catch on his way to a career-high 105 yards. The primary tight end on third downs and in the red zone, Davis played 58 snaps compared to 38 for Cooley. While the changing of the guard isn't an absolute this season, it would benefit the Redskins to go with the younger, more explosive player before making a decision on Davis' future as an impending free agent in 2012.
11. Ben Tate, RB, Texans: If you listened to the Houston Chronicle's @McClain_on_NFL comparing Ben Tate's preseason debut to Arian Foster's 2010 regular-season debut against the Colts, you may have seen the breakout game coming. Tate's Week 1 performance had coach Gary Kubiak gushing: "He's got a chance to be a fine player. To step on the field and have a 116-yard day. ... He has explosion. He's got big-play capability. He needs to learn how from a pro standpoint to play week-to-week, go recover this week and be ready to go in Miami on Sunday. But he's got a lot of ability."
12. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans: Rotoworld's @AdamLevitan summed up Britt's value in a nutshell: "Kenny Britt has 11 touchdowns in his last 10 games. All this guy does is make plays and break the law. Love him."
13. Randall Cobb, WR/KR, Packers: Cobb not only tied Ellis Hobb's 108-yard record for the longest kickoff return in history, he also joined the Lions' Bill Bowman (1954) as the only players in history with a touchdown reception and a kickoff return touchdown in his first NFL game. A Percy Harvin-like talent with eye-opening RAC skills, Cobb is the long-term slot receiver in the NFL's most dynamic passing attack.
14. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: Jones-Drew insisted his knee was fine in training camp. GM Gene Smith promised that MJD was entering the season "in as good a shape as he's ever been as a Jaguar." Perhaps we should have listened. Jones-Drew rushed out to 38 yards, including a 21-yard score, on the Jaguars' first drive in the opener, finishing with 97 yards on 24 carries. After a few days of rest Jones-Drew described his knee as "out of the womb" fresh. His arrow is pointing up again after a sketchy offseason.
15. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: Brady's Week 1 grade of +15.2 is the highest Pro Football Focus has ever assigned any player for a single game. How impressive is Bill Belichick? On NFL Network's Belichick: A Football Life, we saw the epiphany that led to evolution of the Patriots offense away from Randy Moss and toward the drafting of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski: "You just take Moss away in the deep part of the field and get down on Welker: We're done. We're done. We can't run the ball. We can't throw it to anybody else. We're done." The first unanimous MVP and a 517-yard performance later: Advantage Brady.
Also Considered: Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Rex Grossman, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells, Matt Forte, Wes Welker, Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Eric Decker, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Greg Salas, Greg Olsen, Ed Dickson, Scott Chandler, Evan Moore
Cold Sheet
Peyton Problem: Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai
Manning is almost certainly done for the season. For the first time in his career, he's now an injury risk coming off three neck surgies. He will be 36 years old entering the 2012 season. ... Forget Wayne's 100-yard game in the opener. It won't happen on a regular basis with Kerry Collins under center. Sell now if possible. Wayne will be a WR3 this year only to enter 2012 as a 33-year-old free agent facing an uncertain future. ... Collie isn't playing in two-receiver sets, making him useless for 2011. ... Garcon is overrated and unlikely to produce without Manning. ... Clark always derived a good portion of his value from his QB. Now that he's blocking more, he's a poor bet for sustained TE1 productioin in 2011. Clark will turn 33 years old next June, and tight ends don't age as well as receivers. ... Addai is a passing-down specialist playing in an offense that now wants to run more with Manning out.
Production Problem: Shonn Greene, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Cassel
Evan Silva covered Greene's issues succinctly Sunday night: 1. He's not that good. 2. The Jets O-Line isn't as good as it was two years ago. 3. Greene won't touch the ball when the Jets fall behind. I'd add that it's been a concern that he couldn't beat out Thomas Jones and LaDainian Tomlinson, two backs clearly on the decline, in 2009-2010. ... More from Silva: Marshawn Lynch is the worst starting RB in the NFL. I can't take issue with that based on Lynch's career to date or his recent production. ... Cassel's numbers since Charlie Weis announced his decision to leave the Chiefs late last season: 42-of-87 (48.3%), 101.3 yds/game, 1:6 TD-to-INT ratio, 3.49 YPA.
Past Prime: Donovan McNabb, Steven Jackson, Ryan Grant, Chad Ochocinco, Chris Cooley
The increasingly accuracy-challenged McNabb is devoid of value after his 39-yard performance in the opener. ... S-Jax looked plodding in preseason action only to go down with an injury to the same quad that limited him to 12 games back in 2008. He's on the downslope. ... Grant has been a step slow since training camp opened while James Starks looks bigger and explosive. ... Ochocinco is now an overpaid sixth option in the Pats passing game. ... Cooley may battle a knee injury all season as Fred Davis leaves him in the dust.
Dysfunctional Offense: Eli Manning, Dwayne Bowe, Marcedes Lewis
Eli "did not have the best of training camps" and has been "out of sync" with his receivers. There's now talk of the Giants trying to "manufacture" wins this season behind a strong running game and an opportunistic defense. Eli clearly misses Steve Smith and Kevin Boss. ... Re: Bowe. See Cassel's numbers above. ... Lewis is battling a calf strain while the Jaguars move to a run-dominant offense under Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert.
Injury Concerns: Marques Colston, Michael Crabtree, Knowshon Moreno
Colston has a plate in his shoulder after fracturing his collarbone. It's at least his sixth surgical procedure as a pro. Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson noted that Colston didn't look quite as dynamic in the opener coming off his second microfracture knee surgery (one to each knee). ... Will Crabtree's twice surgically repaired left foot be a problem for the rest of his career? He's already conceded it will be an issue all season. ... For all of the talk about Moreno being in the best shape of his career during training camp, he's once again sidelined by a hamstring injury. He just can't stay healthy.
Snap Count: Arian Foster, James Jones, LeGarrette Blount, DeAngelo Williams
Foster remains a valuable Dynasty asset, one of the most skilled backs in the league, and a fantasy stud, but the Kenton Keith corollary made an appearance in Week 1. If the offense can function without missing a beat with its star running back on the sidelines, the player may not be so uniquely talented after all. If Ben Tate can make a run at the rushing title under a starter's workload, it's hardly ideal for Foster's long-term stability. ... Jones is at best the fifth option in Green Bay's aerial attack -- and possibly as low as the sixth or seventh. He never should have re-signed with the Packers. ... Blount is more talented than Shonn Greene, but shares many of the same issues from a fantasy perspective. ... Williams is making "the big sweet dollars, the kwan," but he was outplayed by Jonathan Stewart in the opener.