A decade ago, then ESPN analyst Sean Salisbury perfected the art of the 20-20 hindsight back track. To paraphrase Hunter S. Thompson, all sports analysts end up being wrong on a regular basis; it goes with the territory. But they rarely admit to it over the public airwaves. “Losing is bad for the image, dude. Nobody buys Hot Tips from Losers. Remember that.”
Salisbury’s back-track baton has been passed to Cris Carter, who suggested in August that an all too obviously unstoppable Calvin Johnson is “very, very good at ‘Madden’ and ‘Tecmo Bowl’ or whatever they’re playing now. But on film, when I watch film, and I break down the film, he’s not to the point of these guys yet. That doesn’t mean he can’t play. He's just not there yet.” Carter added at the time, “We’re trying to determine greatness and impact on the NFL game. Calvin Johnson, you don’t have to double-team him to take him out of the game.”
It was odd for Carter to cite game film and Johnson’s inability to beat double coverage when offensive coordinator Scott Linehan actually noted last season that opponents were using triple coverage to contain Megatron.
By last week, Carter was still refusing to puclicly acknowledge Johnson as an “elite” receiver, leading to retorts from Matthew Stafford and DC Gunther Cunningham. Much like Trent Dilfer brings an inherent bias toward intelligent and scrappy but physically limited quarterbacks, perhaps Carter simply places a higher value on boundary receivers with sticky hands and precision route running than vertical threats who can take the top off a defense.
Whatever the case, Carter finally changed his mind after Johnson tied his record with multiple scores in four straight games. The highlight was a 23-yard touchdown in triple coverage after Stafford pointed upward with his index finger at the line of scrimmage. "It was Shawn Kemp pointing to Gary Payton to throw it up for a dunk," explained Nate Burleson. That play was pivotal in overcoming a 24-point deficit against Dallas, tying the record for the largest road comeback in NFL history.
By Monday morning, Carter was finally singing a different tune. “Right now, Calvin Johnson — there’s a king in every crowd,” said Carter, “and he’s the king of the National Football League as far as wide receivers.” Carter’s colleague Merrill Hoge went on to call Johnson the NFL’s early-season MVP. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady may be the favorites, but Hoge is on solid footing. The 4-0 Lions average 5.6 yards per play and allow 5.2 while the 0-4 Vikings average 5.4 yards per play and allow 5.6. “Put Calvin Johnson in purple and white instead of silver and blue,” writes Jonathan Comey of ColdHardFootballFacts.com, “and you might be looking at 2-2 for both, or maybe even 3-1 for the Vikings and 1-3 for the Lions.”
Through four games, Megatron is on pace for 96 catches, 1,284 yards, and 32 touchdown catches. Not to be outdone, Stafford is on pace for a 44:12 TD-to-INT ratio to go with 4,868 passing yards as the undefeated Lions head into their first Monday Night Football game in a decade. Detroit is the center of the football universe this week.
Now that we’ve reached the season’s quarter pole, let’s take a look at some other “on pace” numbers.
Fun with On-Pace Numbers
Aaron Rodgers - The first quarterback in history with 400+ yards, four passing touchdowns, and two rushing scores, Rodgers produced 53 standard-scoring points to vault past Tom Brady as the No. 1 fantasy QB. The Packers’ 148 points through four weeks are a franchise record. Green Bay is on pace to break the Patriots’ 2007 record for most points (589) in a season while adding the most yards in the NFL since the Greatest Show on Turf Rams’ 7,075 in 2000. Rodgers is completing 73.1 percent of his passes, which would better Drew Brees’ record of 70.6. His passer rating of 124.6 is slightly higher than Peyton Manning’s record of 121.7 from 2004. Rodgers has now thrown for at least 297 yards in each of his first four games, setting a pace for 5,300 yards and 48 touchdowns. As crazy as it may sound, that’s a reasonable goal for 16 games.
Tom Brady / Wes Welker - Welker’s 158 yards on Sunday were responsible for 70 percent of Brady’s total one week after hogging 56.0 percent of the Patriots’ passing yards. With Aaron Hernandez sidelined, Deion Branch struggling to get open, and Chad Ochocinco an afterthought, Welker has 25 receptions compared to 21 for the rest of the team over the past two weeks. Just 21 months removed from a torn ACL and MCL, Welker is as quick and dangerous as ever -- perhaps more so than any receiver in the league. He’s on pace for an other-wordly 160 receptions, 2,464 yards, and 20 touchdowns. While that’s unsustainable, Welker should remain an elite fantasy receiver all season. … Despite an “off” week, Brady still managed two passing scores for the 13th consecutive game while the Patriots offense cleared 30 points for the 12th straight regular-season game. Brady is on pace to better his historical 2007 season with 6,212 yards and 52 touchdowns.
Cam Newton / Steve Smith - At this point, the only quarterbacks I’d start over Newton on a weekly basis are Brady, Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and perhaps Matthew Stafford. Coming off the best month in rookie history, Newton is on pace for 5,544 passing yards, 532 rushing yards and 36 total touchdowns. … Revitalized with a quality passer, Smith has topped 150 yards in three of his first four games, putting him on pace for 2,120 receiving yards. That’s obviously not sustainable, but Smith certainly has the talent as well as the situation to finish as fantasy’s top receiver this year. His yards will go down while his touchdowns elevate.
Michael Vick - Buoyed by a career-high 416 passing yards, Vick became the first player in NFL history to pass for 400 yards and rush for 75 yards in the same game. He’s now the second quarterback in NFL history with 4,800 rushing yards, needing only 71 to bypass Randall Cunningham’s 4928 for the most ever by a quarterback. Though he’s been labeled an early-season bust, Vick is still on pace for a career-high 4,084 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to go with 912 rushing yards. The ground scores will come.
Matt Forte - Former Rams coach Dick Vermeil used to stroll past pass-happy coordinator Mike Martz muttering “28” as a reminder to keep Marshall Faulk involved in the offense. It’s a good bet that Lovie Smith gave Martz the same mandate this week after Forte saw just a dozen rushes the past two weeks. Martz called seven straight running plays to start Sunday’s game, and an explosive Forte responded with a career-high 205 yards. His last six regular-season games have produced 954 yards -- an average of 159 per week. The NFL’s best receiving back is on pace for 2,536 total yards and eight touchdowns. The yards will come down from the Chris Johnson of 2009 pace, but Forte should remain a clear-cut RB1 all season.
Darren McFadden - Patriots coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away the other team’s top weapon, forcing offenses to go away from their strength. McFadden didn’t find the end zone against Belichick, but he did rack up 123 yards on 18 touches. Fantasy’s No. 1 back is on pace to essentially replicate Arian Foster’s 2010 season, with 300 carries, 1,872 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 528 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns.
Ryan Mathews - Norv Turner plans to keep repeating this line every week: Ryan Mathews is getting "better, better and better." Already one of the most effective per-touch backs in the NFL, Mathews is averaging 4.72 yards per carry and 13.36 yards per catch through four games. Heading into a dream matchup with the Broncos, Mathews is on pace for 244 carries, 1,152 rushing yards, 76 receptions, 1,016 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. Those receiving yards will go down, of course, but Mathews will counter that by increasing his rushing numbers at Mike Tolbert’s expense.
Jimmy Graham - Formerly a power forward, Graham is on the verge of passing Jermichael Finley as the most dangerous combination of size, power, and speed among NFL tight ends. Like Finley, he can threaten a defense vertically while also representing a mismatch in the red zone. "This is the greatest time I've ever had in the sport," Graham said after posting 132 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches and 14 targets at Jacksonville. After two straight 100-yard games, Graham is on pace for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. He won’t hit that yardage total, but the dozen scores are within reach.
Larry Fitzgerald - Perhaps the one player on this list with the best chance to hit his on-pace numbers, Fitz’s first-month production projects to 92 catches, 1,444 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s flying well under the radar while Welker, Megatron, and Steve Smith steal the show.
Julio Jones / A.J. Green - Jones has back-to-back 100-yard games heading into a Week 5 matchup against a Packers defense on pace to surrender 5,327 passing yards -- 831 more than the record-holding 1995 Falcons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the defenses ranked in the bottom-three in the NFL in yards per play allowed are the Patriots (Brady), Panthers (Newton), and Packers (Rodgers). Through the season's first quarter, No. 6 overall pick Jones is on pace for 1,368 yards on 96 receptions. … In the Bengals’ ball control offense, Green is on pace for 76 catches and 1,248 yards. Fantasy owners will be happy if either rookie clears 1,000 yards. Both have emerged as every-week fantasy plays through one month of action.
A decade ago, then ESPN analyst Sean Salisbury perfected the art of the 20-20 hindsight back track. To paraphrase Hunter S. Thompson, all sports analysts end up being wrong on a regular basis; it goes with the territory. But they rarely admit to it over the public airwaves. “Losing is bad for the image, dude. Nobody buys Hot Tips from Losers. Remember that.”
Salisbury’s back-track baton has been passed to Cris Carter, who suggested in August that an all too obviously unstoppable Calvin Johnson is “very, very good at ‘Madden’ and ‘Tecmo Bowl’ or whatever they’re playing now. But on film, when I watch film, and I break down the film, he’s not to the point of these guys yet. That doesn’t mean he can’t play. He's just not there yet.” Carter added at the time, “We’re trying to determine greatness and impact on the NFL game. Calvin Johnson, you don’t have to double-team him to take him out of the game.”
It was odd for Carter to cite game film and Johnson’s inability to beat double coverage when offensive coordinator Scott Linehan actually noted last season that opponents were using triple coverage to contain Megatron.
By last week, Carter was still refusing to puclicly acknowledge Johnson as an “elite” receiver, leading to retorts from Matthew Stafford and DC Gunther Cunningham. Much like Trent Dilfer brings an inherent bias toward intelligent and scrappy but physically limited quarterbacks, perhaps Carter simply places a higher value on boundary receivers with sticky hands and precision route running than vertical threats who can take the top off a defense.
Whatever the case, Carter finally changed his mind after Johnson tied his record with multiple scores in four straight games. The highlight was a 23-yard touchdown in triple coverage after Stafford pointed upward with his index finger at the line of scrimmage. "It was Shawn Kemp pointing to Gary Payton to throw it up for a dunk," explained Nate Burleson. That play was pivotal in overcoming a 24-point deficit against Dallas, tying the record for the largest road comeback in NFL history.
By Monday morning, Carter was finally singing a different tune. “Right now, Calvin Johnson — there’s a king in every crowd,” said Carter, “and he’s the king of the National Football League as far as wide receivers.” Carter’s colleague Merrill Hoge went on to call Johnson the NFL’s early-season MVP. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady may be the favorites, but Hoge is on solid footing. The 4-0 Lions average 5.6 yards per play and allow 5.2 while the 0-4 Vikings average 5.4 yards per play and allow 5.6. “Put Calvin Johnson in purple and white instead of silver and blue,” writes Jonathan Comey of ColdHardFootballFacts.com, “and you might be looking at 2-2 for both, or maybe even 3-1 for the Vikings and 1-3 for the Lions.”
Through four games, Megatron is on pace for 96 catches, 1,284 yards, and 32 touchdown catches. Not to be outdone, Stafford is on pace for a 44:12 TD-to-INT ratio to go with 4,868 passing yards as the undefeated Lions head into their first Monday Night Football game in a decade. Detroit is the center of the football universe this week.
Now that we’ve reached the season’s quarter pole, let’s take a look at some other “on pace” numbers.
Fun with On-Pace Numbers
Aaron Rodgers - The first quarterback in history with 400+ yards, four passing touchdowns, and two rushing scores, Rodgers produced 53 standard-scoring points to vault past Tom Brady as the No. 1 fantasy QB. The Packers’ 148 points through four weeks are a franchise record. Green Bay is on pace to break the Patriots’ 2007 record for most points (589) in a season while adding the most yards in the NFL since the Greatest Show on Turf Rams’ 7,075 in 2000. Rodgers is completing 73.1 percent of his passes, which would better Drew Brees’ record of 70.6. His passer rating of 124.6 is slightly higher than Peyton Manning’s record of 121.7 from 2004. Rodgers has now thrown for at least 297 yards in each of his first four games, setting a pace for 5,300 yards and 48 touchdowns. As crazy as it may sound, that’s a reasonable goal for 16 games.
Tom Brady / Wes Welker - Welker’s 158 yards on Sunday were responsible for 70 percent of Brady’s total one week after hogging 56.0 percent of the Patriots’ passing yards. With Aaron Hernandez sidelined, Deion Branch struggling to get open, and Chad Ochocinco an afterthought, Welker has 25 receptions compared to 21 for the rest of the team over the past two weeks. Just 21 months removed from a torn ACL and MCL, Welker is as quick and dangerous as ever -- perhaps more so than any receiver in the league. He’s on pace for an other-wordly 160 receptions, 2,464 yards, and 20 touchdowns. While that’s unsustainable, Welker should remain an elite fantasy receiver all season. … Despite an “off” week, Brady still managed two passing scores for the 13th consecutive game while the Patriots offense cleared 30 points for the 12th straight regular-season game. Brady is on pace to better his historical 2007 season with 6,212 yards and 52 touchdowns.
Cam Newton / Steve Smith - At this point, the only quarterbacks I’d start over Newton on a weekly basis are Brady, Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and perhaps Matthew Stafford. Coming off the best month in rookie history, Newton is on pace for 5,544 passing yards, 532 rushing yards and 36 total touchdowns. … Revitalized with a quality passer, Smith has topped 150 yards in three of his first four games, putting him on pace for 2,120 receiving yards. That’s obviously not sustainable, but Smith certainly has the talent as well as the situation to finish as fantasy’s top receiver this year. His yards will go down while his touchdowns elevate.
Michael Vick - Buoyed by a career-high 416 passing yards, Vick became the first player in NFL history to pass for 400 yards and rush for 75 yards in the same game. He’s now the second quarterback in NFL history with 4,800 rushing yards, needing only 71 to bypass Randall Cunningham’s 4928 for the most ever by a quarterback. Though he’s been labeled an early-season bust, Vick is still on pace for a career-high 4,084 passing yards and 24 touchdowns to go with 912 rushing yards. The ground scores will come.
Matt Forte - Former Rams coach Dick Vermeil used to stroll past pass-happy coordinator Mike Martz muttering “28” as a reminder to keep Marshall Faulk involved in the offense. It’s a good bet that Lovie Smith gave Martz the same mandate this week after Forte saw just a dozen rushes the past two weeks. Martz called seven straight running plays to start Sunday’s game, and an explosive Forte responded with a career-high 205 yards. His last six regular-season games have produced 954 yards -- an average of 159 per week. The NFL’s best receiving back is on pace for 2,536 total yards and eight touchdowns. The yards will come down from the Chris Johnson of 2009 pace, but Forte should remain a clear-cut RB1 all season.
Darren McFadden - Patriots coach Bill Belichick is known for taking away the other team’s top weapon, forcing offenses to go away from their strength. McFadden didn’t find the end zone against Belichick, but he did rack up 123 yards on 18 touches. Fantasy’s No. 1 back is on pace to essentially replicate Arian Foster’s 2010 season, with 300 carries, 1,872 rushing yards, 60 receptions, 528 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns.
Ryan Mathews - Norv Turner plans to keep repeating this line every week: Ryan Mathews is getting "better, better and better." Already one of the most effective per-touch backs in the NFL, Mathews is averaging 4.72 yards per carry and 13.36 yards per catch through four games. Heading into a dream matchup with the Broncos, Mathews is on pace for 244 carries, 1,152 rushing yards, 76 receptions, 1,016 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. Those receiving yards will go down, of course, but Mathews will counter that by increasing his rushing numbers at Mike Tolbert’s expense.
Jimmy Graham - Formerly a power forward, Graham is on the verge of passing Jermichael Finley as the most dangerous combination of size, power, and speed among NFL tight ends. Like Finley, he can threaten a defense vertically while also representing a mismatch in the red zone. "This is the greatest time I've ever had in the sport," Graham said after posting 132 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches and 14 targets at Jacksonville. After two straight 100-yard games, Graham is on pace for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. He won’t hit that yardage total, but the dozen scores are within reach.
Larry Fitzgerald - Perhaps the one player on this list with the best chance to hit his on-pace numbers, Fitz’s first-month production projects to 92 catches, 1,444 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s flying well under the radar while Welker, Megatron, and Steve Smith steal the show.
Julio Jones / A.J. Green - Jones has back-to-back 100-yard games heading into a Week 5 matchup against a Packers defense on pace to surrender 5,327 passing yards -- 831 more than the record-holding 1995 Falcons. Perhaps not coincidentally, the defenses ranked in the bottom-three in the NFL in yards per play allowed are the Patriots (Brady), Panthers (Newton), and Packers (Rodgers). Through the season's first quarter, No. 6 overall pick Jones is on pace for 1,368 yards on 96 receptions. … In the Bengals’ ball control offense, Green is on pace for 76 catches and 1,248 yards. Fantasy owners will be happy if either rookie clears 1,000 yards. Both have emerged as every-week fantasy plays through one month of action.
Committee Time
Redskins - Coach Mike Shanahan waited until after Sunday’s game to reveal that he decided mid-week that Ryan Torain's role would grow Sunday against the Rams. The Washington Times suggests that the Redskins could now use a three-way rotation in the backfield with Torain (19 carries, 135 yards, TD) as the first- and second-down back, Tim Hightower (9 touches, 28 yards) as the blitz pick-up specialist on passing downs, and rookie Roy Helu (8 rushes, 35 yards) as the explosive change-of-pace option. Torain is a must-add on the waiver wire this week.
Saints - It’s become clear that Sproles (12 touches, 131 yards) is more than a passing down back -- quite a few of his carries came on early downs and between the tackles on Sunday. Sproles is now on pace for 1,432 total yards and eight touchdowns, a sign that he’s more than just a PPR flex option in New Orleans. Ingram (19 touches, 58 yards) led the backfield in touches for a fourth consecutive game, but he needs to find the end zone for reliable fantasy value. Thomas (10 touches, 79 yards) remains one of the most effective per-play backs in the NFL, but it’s hard to maintain fantasy value on less than a dozen touches.
Panthers - Jonathan Stewart (12 touches, 85 yards) remains the primary passing-down back, but DeAngelo Williams gained momentum with 82 yards on 10 rushes against a quality defense. This should remain a virtual 50-50 split going forward.
Patriots - BenJarvus Green-Ellis (17 touches, 84 yards, TD) remains the leader of the committee as well as the goal-line horse, but Stevan Ridley (11 touches, 100, TD) is coming like a freight train. Ridley was a tackle-breaking machine at Oakland, showing more explosiveness than BJGE for the second straight game. Danny Woodhead (two carries, 13 yards) saw just six snaps before going down with an ankle injury.
Browns - Peyton Hillis (15 touches, 69 yards) split time fairly evenly with Montario Hardesty (12 touches, 71 yards). Browns coaches clearly trust Hardesty in the passing game despite four drops against the Titans. Hillis was miffed after the game, answering "Ask the coach" to every question asked. His value is trending toward low-end RB2 territory with Hardesty’s role expanding.
Giants - More of the same. Ahmad Bradshaw led the way with 50 yards and a score on 16 touches while Brandon Jacobs managed just 18 yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. The two backs alternated drives with Jacobs scoring on a goal-line plunge. Jacobs is only an option in touchdown-heavy leagues right now.
Packers - Expected to take on a larger role going forward, Ryan Grant plans to play against the Falcons in Week 5. It was good to see James Starks (18 touches, 101 yards) ditch his hesitant Week 3 style, but he didn’t exactly put his stamp on the backfield against the Broncos. Alex Green saw just three carries and will head back to the bench while Grant and Starks split time in Week 5.
49ers - Juan Castillo’s Philadelphia defense had surrendered 100-yard performances to Cadillac Williams, Michael Turner, and Ahmad Bradshaw before Frank Gore (15 carries, 127 yards, TD) and Kendall Hunter (11 touches, 100 yards) both hit the mark on Sunday. Gore’s 8.5 yards per carry were enough to stave off a running back controversy in San Fran, but Hunter showed enough play-making ability to believe his role will grow.
Chiefs - Dexter McCluster (10 touches, 38 yards) is leading the backfield in touches and production, but he’s averaging a staggeringly low 3.05 yards on 17 receptions. Thomas Jones (11 carries, 37 yards) is averaging just 2.82 yards per touch and is on pace for an irrelevant 452 total yards. Jackie Battle (five carries, 22 yards) took over for Jones in clock-killing mode. Our game charter noted that Kansas City’s backfield has “simply became a wasteland for fantasy value.”
Injury Ward
Ben Roethlisberger - Foot
Chad Henne - Shoulder
Rashard Mendenhall - Hamstring
Ben Tate - Groin
Andre Johnson - Hamstring
Danny Woodhead - Ankle
Michael Bush - Ankle
Vincent Jackson - Leg
Danny Amendola - Triceps
Big Mike Williams - Concussion
Jerod Mayo - Knee
Joe Haden - Knee
Chris Hope - Arm
Aaron Smith - Foot
James Harrison - Head
Check out MattStroup’s “Andre’s Hammy, Big Ben’s Foot” for in-depth analysis of Sunday’s M*A*S*H unit fallout.
Awards Section
Stat of the Week: The comebacks by the 49ers and Lions mark the first time in NFL history that two teams apiece in consecutive weeks overcame 20-point deficits to win. The Lions are the only team in NFL history to perform the feat in consecutive weeks.
Runner-Up: The Eagles are the first team with 1,700 offensive yards and a losing record through four games since the 1983 Chargers.
Quote of the Week: From @colonelcomey of ColdHardFootballFacts.com on Aaron Rodgers’ dominance: “If Rodgers can top Brady for MVP, it’ll cap the greatest 12-month run for a human being since Alexander the Great made Persia his bitch in 334 B.C.”
Runner-Up: Clark Judge of CBSSports.com on Texans Pro Bowl pass rusher Mario Williams versus Steelers rookie RT Marcus Gilbert: “The worst mismatch since the Red Sox took on September.”
Tweet of the Week: From @greggrosenthal of Rotoworld and Profootballtalk.com on Sunday night’s offensive debacle: “SNF score: Ravens D 21, Ravens offense 13, Jets ST 7, Jets D 7, Jets offense 3.”
Runner-Up: From Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times: “Buffalo at Cincinnati pits the Amish Rifle and Red Rifle.”
Fantasy MVP of Week 4: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 4: Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Fantasy Rookie of Week 4: Cam Newton, Panthers / Julio Jones, Falcons
Fantasy Disappointment of Week 4: Mario Manningham, Giants
Fantasy Fraud of Week 4: Tim Hightower, Redskins
Fantasy Fluke of Week 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
Fine Fifteen Fantasy Offenses
1. Patriots
2. Lions
3. Packers
4. Eagles
5. Saints
6. Texans
7. Falcons
8. Cowboys
9. Chargers
10. Panthers
11. Bills
12. Cardinals
13. Giants
14. Steelers
15. Ravens
Early Waiver Look
QB: Tim Tebow, Christian Ponder, Jason Campbell, Tarvaris Jackson, John Beck, Matt Moore
RB: Ryan Torain, Stevan Ridley, Isaac Redman, Lex Hilliard, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Danario Alexander, Titus Young, Antonio Brown, Jacoby Jones, Doug Baldwin, Laurent Robinson, Greg Little
TE: Ed Dickson, Jared Cook, Kevin Boss
Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.