Along with Bob Knight and Pete Rose, Tim Tebow has already been one of the most polarizing figures in professional sports over the past half-century. Visceral love and hate are his constant companions. This Twitter exchange sums up the national attitude on Tebow in a nutshell: SI.com's Jim Trotter is pulling for Tebow because the negative reaction toward him "borders on irrational." Responds Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post, "So does the praise and adulation."
Detractors love to paint Tebow Nation as unreasonable acolytes, yet the former have been just as close-minded. Scouts, national and local writers, and plenty of NFL execs have written off a talented player, painting his devout followers as a fervent cult with simplistic notions on the making of a successful NFL quarterback. As Cecil Lammey of Footballguys.com puts it, “The human mind has difficulty processing something it's never seen before. Just because we've never seen a QB like Tebow doesn’t mean he sucks.”
The data at both the college and the pro level suggest that Tebow is indeed a “gamer,” that he’ll rarely impress teammates and coaches in scripted practice sessions. Even more than Ben Roethlisberger, Tebow is a free lancer and an improviser in the pocket. With an ugly throwing motion and a skill-set that is half-fullback, half-quarterback, he calls to mind former Vikings quarterbacks Joe Kapp and Fran Tarkenton a/k/a The Mad Scrambler, Frantic Fran, and Scramblin’ Fran.
The similarities to Hall of Famer Tarkenton don’t end there. Broncos coach John Fox and personnel czar John Elway have made it clear that they would prefer “a dropback quarterback with good accuracy” just as ex-Vikings head coach Norm Van Brocklin disdained the idea of a mobile quarterback.
As I’ve stated several times before, I have no idea if Tebow will develop into a successful NFL quarterback. Considering his immense fantasy potential, though, I still think it’s a sensible policy to keep an open mind. In three late-season 2010 starts, Tebow was the No. 1 fantasy player at any position. In each of four games with at least 10 pass attempts, he’s scored a touchdown via the pass as well as the run. He accomplished that feat in a fifth game with just one pass attempt and two rushes. Tebow may not be the passer that Cam Newton is, but he could very well be 80-90 percent of Newton as a fantasy option.
Similar to last year’s Michael Vick vs. Brandon Jackson waiver debate, I’m siding with the difference-making quarterback over the fleeting running back. Unless you have a stacked roster at quarterback and dregs at running back, Tebow is the No. 1 fantasy option this week. Just beware he’s heading into the bye week before returning to Florida for Gator reunion week against the Dolphins.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 6. Full writeups of each player are below.
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Quarterbacks
Tim Tebow
Matt Cassel
Alex Smith
Matt Moore
Charlie Whitehurst
Andy Dalton
Running Backs
Jackie Battle
Earnest Graham
Delone Carter
Donald Brown
Roy Helu
Jonathan Dwyer
Bernard Scott
Kregg Lumpkin
Wide Receivers
Greg Little
James Jones
Early Doucet
Damian Williams
Steve Breaston
Doug Baldwin
Mark Clayton
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Naaman Roosevelt
Tight Ends
Jared Cook
Ben Watson
Visanthe Shiancoe
Heath Miller
Defense/Special Teams
Bengals
Saints
Redskins
Quarterbacks
Tim Tebow, Broncos - Coach John Fox announced to his team Tuesday morning that Tebow would be the new starting quarterback. In three late-season 2010 starts, Tebow produced more fantasy points than any player in the NFL. In all four career games in which he’s received significant playing time, Tebow has scored via the run as well as the pass. He also did it in a fifth game with just one pass attempt and two rushes. Tebow and Cam Newton may already be the best goal-line quarterbacks in fantasy history. Consider Tebow 80-90 percent of Newton going forward. There will be bumps in the road, but this is a low-end QB1 right now. Just beware that the Broncos don’t play again until Week 7 at Miami.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Matt Cassel, Chiefs - After a dismal start, Cassel has now put together back-to-back games over 250 yards -- the most recent of which produced four touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe was the best player on the field last week, and Steve Breaston is emerging as a dangerous second option. Cassel has an attractive matchup in Week 7 against a Raiders team that allows the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks, but he’s off in Week 6.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Alex Smith, 49ers - Rotoworld’s Aaron Bruski, a Bay Area resident and lifelong 49ers fan, has led chants against Smith as recently as last season. As of Sunday night, though, Jim Harbaugh had him convinced that Smith has turned the corner and may actually go beyond the game manager label this season. He has a passer rating over 90 in four of five games this year while finishing with the highest single-game Total QBR score of the season in Week 5. For the record, I remain highly skeptical that Smith will be a fantasy asset in 12-team leagues this season. His track record suggests a faceplant is just around the corner.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Matt Moore, Dolphins - A favorite of former front-office exec and NFL scout Russ Lande, Moore takes over an offense with some interesting pieces in Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush. While he’s capable of matching Chad Henne’s production, Moore will have to played judiciously in deeper leagues against weaker secondaries. He gets fantasy’s stingiest pass defense in Week 6 (Jets) before a Week 7 matchup against fantasy’s most generous pass defense (Broncos).
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Charlie Whitehurst, Seahawks - At 11-of-19 for 149 yards and a touchdown, Whitehurst played well enough in relief of Tarvaris Jackson to lead Seattle to victory in the second half. The Seahawks won’t know “for a while” the severity of Jackson’s pectoral strain, and surgery hasn’t been completely dismissed. Jackson won’t even throw the ball during the bye week, which would seem to leave Whitehurst as the favorite to start at Cleveland in Week 7. The Seahawks offense is coming alive of late, too, with more yards the past two weeks 796 than the first three weeks combined (644).
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Andy Dalton, Bengals - Dalton may have a winning record, but he’s averaging just over 200 yards and one touchdown per week. He’s proven capable of solid numbers when the Bengals are playing from behind. Unfortunately, the winless Colts are on the docket for Week 6 before a Week 7 bye. Dalton is still limited to two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.
Hold Off: Blaine Gabbert
Gabbert would have had been held under 150 yards with zero scores had the Bengals not blown coverage on Jason Hill’s long touchdown. His footwork and pocket presence will continue to hold him back.
Watch List: Christian Ponder, John Beck, Richard Bartel
Donovan McNabb got another vote of confidence Monday, but the Vikings won in spite of their quarterback. One or two more losses, and it will be time to join the Broncos in moving on to the future. … Similarly, Beck is just a couple of Rex Grossman meltdowns away from the starting job. … Bartel is purely a stash for deeper leagues. Kevin Kolb is struggling, and the former has shown that he can move the Cardinals offense.
Running Backs
Jackie Battle, Chiefs - A 28-year-old special teamer who narrowly made the final roster in September, Battle entered Week 5 with an underwhelming career per-carry average of 3.0. The scouting report suggested an intriguing size/speed package with a fumbling problem and little natural feel for the position. If LeSean McCoy is at a 10 on the lateral agility scale, Battle is in the 1.5 range. He’s a pure straight-ahead runner, who enjoyed extra wide lanes against a 31st-ranked Colts defense surrendering 145 rushing yards per game. While I suspect Week 5 will stand as a career game, opportunity is half the battle for NFL running backs. If Samkon Gado and Earnest Graham can emerge as fantasy factors in a lost season, Battle can follow suit for the Chiefs as a potential RB2 the rest of the way. Just don't count on Battle as a starter this week. The Chiefs have a bye.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Earnest Graham, Buccaneers - Speaking of Graham, he’s set to take over as the “lead ball carrier” with LeGarrette Blount (knee) possibly (likely?) out for Week 6 against the Saints. Graham is a pedestrian runner, but he’s already on pace for 70+ receptions as a part-time player. If Blount does miss this week’s game, consider Graham a solid RB2 in PPR formats and a borderline option in standard-scoring leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Donald Brown, Colts - Let’s not mince words here. The 2009 first-rounder has been an injury-prone bust to date, showing no power, questionable pass protection skills, and only rare traces of playmaking ability. That said, Brown outplayed Delone Carter in Week 5 once Joseph Addai went down with a hamstring injury. Addai is likely to miss this week’s game at Cincinnati, leaving Brown and Carter to split the workload. Behind a cobbled-together offensive line, neither player will be more than desperation flex option in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Delone Carter, Colts - I couldn’t believe that Donald Brown looked better Carter last week, so I went back and watched the game via NFL.com’s Rewind. Carter flashed decent power against the Chiefs, but he offers no playmaking ability and won’t make tacklers miss. If you’re forced to play him against the Bengals in Week 6, it’s with the idea that he could sneak into the end zone again as the goal-line back.
Recommendation: Worth a look in touchdown-heavy leagues.
Roy Helu, Redskins - Helu has averaged just nine touches over his past three games. If that workload remains static in the revamped Redskins backfield, he has a shot for deep-league flex value against the Eagles (most fantasy points allowed), Panthers (third-most), and Bills (ninth-most) the next three weeks. If Cadillac Williams, Kendall Hunter, and Brandon Jacobs can explode against Philly’s overmatched defense, Helu has a shot as well.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper leagues.
Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers - Rashard Mendenhall’s (hamstring) status for Week 6 against the Jaguars is unclear after he missed the entirety of last week’s game. Aided by a 76-yard jailbreak run, Dwyer outplayed Isaac Redman on his way to 107 yards via 11 carries against the Titans. Dwyer is only an option if Mendenhall sits out -- and even then merely a deep-league flex in a timeshare with Redman.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Bernard Scott, Bengals - Once again, the decision on Cedric Benson’s three-game suspension is not expected to be announced this week. Scott remains a stash for insurance purposes, but keep in mind that the Bengals have their bye in Week 7. He’s not going to be in fantasy lineups until Week 8 at the earliest.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers - After talking up an increased role for Lumpkin, the coaching staff has a chance to put that plan into action with LeGarrette Blount (knee) in doubt for Week 6 against the Saints. While Earnest Graham is expected to be the early-down back, Lumpkin is slated for third-down duty. He’s worth tracking in deeper league in case Blount’s injury is of the multi-week variety.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.
Cut Bait: Thomas Jones, Danny Woodhead
Jones is worthless now that Jackie Battle has taken over as the primary runner in Kansas City.
Hold Off: Jacob Hester
The San Diego Union-Tribune confirmed Monday that Ryan Mathews (calf, wrist) and Mike Tolbert (concussion) are both expected back after the Week 6 bye.
Watch List: Javon Ringer, Allen Bradford, Joe McKnight
Coach Mike Munchack fully anticipates Chris Johnson (hamstring) starting after the bye in Week 7, but Ringer is worth tracking in the event of a setback. … Bradford could get a carry or three against the Saints if Blount sits out as expected. … McKnight remains ahead of Bilal Powell, who has yet to be active this season.
Wide Receivers
Greg Little, Browns - Little was elevated to the starting lineup Monday, and it sounds like the coaching staff worked on increasing his role during the off week. Already playing more snaps than any Browns receiver, Little is now an every-down player, moving to the slot in three-wide sets. Boasting early-career Anquan Boldin skills after the catch, the rookie is now the obvious receiver to own in Cleveland.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
James Jones, Packers - Jones is coming off a season-high 140 yards at Atlanta, and it may not be a fluke. Jones has been on the field for the majority of Aaron Rodgers’ pass attempts the past two weeks after riding the pine in the first three games. At the same time, an ineffective Donald Driver has played just one-third of the offensive snaps the past two weeks. It looks like we have a well-deserved changing of the guard at the third receiver spot. Jones could be a sneaky WR3 play in Week 6 against a Rams team without its top three cornerbacks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Early Doucet, Cardinals - Doucet drew a whopping 16 targets against the Vikings with Larry Fitzgerald continuing to draw double coverage. Starter Andre Roberts has played 118 more snaps than Doucet this season, but the latter has a 21/309/1 line compared to 12/125/0 for the former. With the passing game struggling, the coaching staff will have to think about making a change during the bye week. Doucet could feast on single coverage the rest of the way, though tough matchups against the Steelers and Ravens loom in Weeks 7 and 8.
Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.
Damian Williams, Titans - The 2010 third-rounder found the end zone for the second straight game while leading the Titans with 11 targets at Pittsburgh. He’s locked in as the starter opposite Nate Washington with a chance to maintain value as long as Matt Hasselbeck continues to air it out in Nashville.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Mark Clayton, Rams - Danny Amendola is out for the season, Mike Sims-Walker is coming off a drop-filled nightmare performance, and Brandon Gibson was targeted just once in the last game. Sam Bradford is in desperate need of a reliable go-to receiver. Clayton filled that role early last season, and he’s eligible to come off the PUP list in Week 7 at Dallas. Updates have been scarce, but as of mid-September Clayton’s surgically knee was expected to be ready for action. He makes for a decent WR5 stash heading into Week 6.
Recommendation: Worth a stash in 12-team leagues.
Steve Breaston, Chiefs - I’ve been hesitant to recommend Breaston only because the Chiefs’ passing offense failed to hit 180 yards in each of the first three games. Now that Breaston has emerged as a viable second fiddle to Dwayne Bowe with eight catches, 141 yards, and two scores the past two weeks, he’s worth a look as a bench option heading into the Week 6 bye.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Doug Baldwin, Seahawks - The Seahawks have found their long-term slot receiver. The undrafted rookie has decent size, above-average speed, and run-after-catch skills. After watching the Giants game on NFL Rewind, I’d feel much better about Baldwin as a fantasy pickup if Charlie Whitehurst remains the quarterback for a stretch of games. The two showed a nice rapport in the fourth quarter, where Baldwin did the majority of his damage. He’s going to be unreliable on a weekly basis if Tarvaris Jackson returns after the bye.
Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - DHB has flirted with the century mark in back-to-back games for the first time in his career, but I need to see it again. His 115 yards in Week 4 were boosted by a long circus catch. His seven receptions for 99 yards in Week 5 were thanks in large part to Jason Allen’s huge cushion at the line of scrimmage. Feel free to add Heyward-Bey, but I’m not cutting Denarius Moore to pick him up.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Naaman Roosevelt, Bills - A hometown favorite from the University of Buffalo, Roosevelt stepped in with five second-half catches against the Eagles after Donald Jones went down with a high-ankle sprain in Week 5. Roosevelt will move into three-wide sets with Stevie Johnson and David Nelson, who was shifted outside after Jones’ injury. As we’ve noted in the past with Nelson, the slot receiver in Chan Gailey’s offense offers PPR potential.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.
Cut Bait: Donald Jones, Austin Collie, Jacoby Jones, Chad Ochocinco, Big Mike Williams, Devery Henderson, Preston Parker, Donald Driver, Derrick Mason
Jones is out 4-6 weeks. … Collie is a great receiver going to waste in the Colts’ two-wideout sets. … Jacoby Jones fell flat on his face in Week 5. … Ochocinco isn’t playing well or often enough to matter. … Henderson has become an afterthought in NOLA. … Parker is unreliable. … Driver and Mason are done.
Hold Off: Jason Avant, Jason Hill, Ben Obomanu, Legedu Naanee
Avant is worth a look in deeper PPR leagues, but he’s never a great bet to follow one big game with another. … Hill’s 118 yards against the Bengals were courtesy of blown coverage on a 73-yard touchdown. … Obomanu isn’t certain to keep the starting job opposite Sidney Rice. … Naanee is still missing more than he’s catching.
Watch List: Harry Douglas, Ted Ginn, Devin Aromashodu, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, Jeremy Kerley
I wouldn’t go crazy over Douglas just because Julio Jones is nursing a hamstring injury. Douglas has never proven that he can be effective on the outside. … Ginn should see increased snaps with Josh Morgan out. … Aromashodu has a chance to take Bernard Berrian’s job. … Pettis comes out of the bye as the Rams’ slot receiver. … Young continues to eat into Nate Burleson’s snaps. … Kerley could take over for Derrick Mason as the Jets’ third receiver.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook, Titans - We suspected that Cook’s role would increase with the loss of Kenny Britt, and that has been the case the past two weeks. Cook has been targeted 15 times for six receptions, 152 yards, and a touchdown. The Titans have a bye in Week 6, so Cook would have to be rostered as a TE2 stash with a waiver pickup.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Ben Watson, Browns - Coach Pat Shurmer calls Watson a “three-down tight end” who is playing at a “very high level” this season. Watson has been a low upside TE2 option thus far, but he has cleared 45 yards in three of four games as the most consistent option in Cleveland’s passing game. He’s set to face a Raiders defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings - The waiver outlook is grim for plug ‘n’ play tight ends, but Shiancoe and Heath Miller at least have attractive matchups. Coming off six targets last week, Shiancoe takes on a Bears defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation spot start.
Heath Miller, Steelers - Miller finally found the end zone in Week 5, producing 40+ yards for the third time in five games. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues against a Jaguars defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation spot start.
Cut Bait: Marcedes Lewis, Scott Chandler, Randy McMichael, Brent Celek, James Casey
Lewis has averaged less than 20 yards per game since Blaine Gabbert took over. … Chandler is no longer finding the end zone. … McMichael is without value now that Antonio Gates is due back after the bye.
Hold Off: Joel Dreessen, Jeff King
Much like James Casey, Dreessen has never produced two consecutive big games as long as Owen Daniels has been healthy. I wouldn’t bet on Dreessen blowing up again in Week 6. … King saw an increased role only because Todd Heap was out with a hamstring injury.
Watch List: Evan Moore, Jake Ballard, Delanie Walker, Rob Housler
Coach Pat Shurmur promises to get Moore extra playing time going forward. He should be monitored closely in deeper leagues. … Travis Beckum won’t be overtaking Ballard anytime soon. Ballard is in the mold of Kevin Boss and Mark Bavara as a blocking tight end who can also catch, and Eli Manning looks for him in the middle of the field. … Walker’s role could expand with Josh Morgan out, but he’s never been able string together a streak of fantasy-worthy starts. … Speedy rookie Housler saw eight targets last week with Heap out.
Defense/Special Teams
Bengals - Cincinnati still boasts the NFL’s No. 1 defense, just ahead of AFC North foes Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They have an excellent matchup for the second straight week, this time against Curtis Painter and the league’s 27th-ranked offense.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Saints - New Orleans has been a middle of the road fantasy defense through five weeks, but this is an attractive matchup against the NFL’s 28th-ranked offense. The Bucs will likely be playing without power back LeGarrette Blount, leaving them a one-dimensional offense in the hands of a slumping passer.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a spot start.
Redskins - It’s a high-risk move to spot start the ‘Skins in leagues that subtract for points and yards allowed, but many leagues do not. Michael Vick already has more turnovers than all of last season, and his patchwork offensive line will have trouble keeping Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan out of the backfield.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a spot start.
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