Chris Wesseling
Slingbox's Waiver Wired
Carson Gets His Wish
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Tight EndsFred Davis, Redskins - Davis led Redskins skill position players in snaps last week, which is no surprise considering he’s led all season. For the third time in five games, Davis was also the best offensive player on the field for the Redskins while pouring six catches and 95 yards on the Eagles. With Chris Cooley out of the picture for the next month and a half, Davis is once again a rock-solid TE1. He should be owned in all leagues, not the 60 percent on CBSSports.com.Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Ed Dickson, Ravens - Dickson is coming off a disappointing 20-yard performance against the Texans, but he’s worth a look this week for matchup purposes. The Jaguars allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including monster games by Jimmy Graham, Dustin Keller, and Greg Olsen. Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.Jake Ballard, Giants - Eli Manning is averaging 322 yards per game ever since Victor Cruz emerged as a dangerous third receiver. A byproduct has been an open seam allowing Ballard to gut defenses down the middle. Ballard’s five Week 6 targets are a season-high, so don’t expect that two-week average of 77 yards to carry over coming out of the Week 7 bye. He’s purely a TE2 option.Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.Lance Kendricks, Rams - A stud in August, Kendricks finally showed up in a real game with 71 yards on four receptions. A 45-yard gain courtesy of a vicious stiff-arm nearly made up for another key drop. If Kendricks ever starts playing with confidence, he has high-end TE2 potential. Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues. Watch List: Rob HouslerTodd Heap’s (hamstring) status is up in the air after sitting out Monday’s practice. It’s worth noting that rookie Housler saw eight targets in his absence two weeks ago. Keep him in mind for a late-week add in deeper leagues.Hold Off: Jeremy ShockeyShockey has been good for 25-50 yards per week, but he’s yet to find the end zone.Cut Bait: Chris Cooley, Scott ChandlerCooley is out six weeks with shattered index finger. … Chandler hasn’t topped 10 yards in a game in a month.Defense/Special TeamsCowboys - Rob Ryan’s Browns defense stifled the Patriots for a mere 14 points in Week 9 of last season. His Cowboys defense held the Pats to 20 points last week. In between, Tom Brady topped 30 points against every other team on the schedule. Now healthy, Ryan’s crew is leading the NFL in run defense while also getting to the quarterback. The Cowboys could be welcoming A.J. Feeley to town this week, as Sam Bradford is battling a high-ankle sprain.Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.Chargers - The Chargers allow just the 25th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the 28th-most points to opposing running backs. That’s bad news for a Jets offense that struggled to move the ball through the air or on the ground against a winless Dolphins team Monday night. Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.Chiefs - Even with the Palmer trade, beat writer Steve Corkran expects Kyle Boller to start this week’s game against the Chiefs. Palmer will get up to speed in Hue Jackson’s offense during the Week 8 bye. In 66 games and 46 starts, Boller has racked up 51 interceptions and 41 fumbles. He’s like an unholy amalgam of Rex Grossman and Dave Kreig. Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation matchup play.
Evaluate the player, not the name. I tackled Carson Palmer’s obvious decline before last season, noting that his once golden arm was trending toward Chad Pennington territory. Ever since he rejected Tommy John surgery in favor of rest and rehab, Palmer has struggled with accuracy, sailed passes, and lost zip on his throws. Raiders faithful will soon find out that mobility is an issue as well.
To desperately surrender a 2012 first-round pick for Palmer is a foolish risk. To throw in a conditional 2013 first-rounder is laughable, man. As CBSSports.com’s Gregg Doyel points out, Bengals owner Mike Brown “hasn't won like this since he was born, silver-spoon style, into one of the first families of football 74 years ago.”
Coach Hue Jackson was with the Bengals in Palmer’s salad days of 2004-2006. It’s hard to blame him for remembering a top-three NFL quarterback. On the other hand, he owes it to the organization to take a critical look at the 2009-2010 game film. A pie-in-the-sky optimist will see a precision passer who picked apart the Chargers’ top-rated defense late last season once the Bengals banished Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco to the bench. A realist will put more stock in the rest of the season that saw Palmer pad his numbers against prevent defenses in garbage time.
In pure fantasy terms, Palmer is an upgrade on Jason Campbell as a passer. The Raiders can surround him with enough explosive talent in Darren McFadden, Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, and Darrius Heyward-Bey to be worthy of the top waiver claim at quarterback this week. In a run-oriented offense, though, fantasy owners should expect just a top 15-20 quarterback going forward. Palmer isn’t going to be a reliable weekly starter.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 7. Full writeups of each player are below.
Donald BrownC.J. Spiller Marion Barber Wide ReceiversMichael Crabtree Greg LittleDanario AlexanderDemaryius ThomasArrelious Benn Greg Salas Doug Baldwin Steve Breaston Damian WilliamsTight EndsFred Davis Ed DicksonJake BallardLance KendricksDefense/Special TeamsCowboys ChargersChiefs QuarterbacksCarson Palmer, Raiders - The current version of Palmer isn’t a major upgrade on Jason Campbell, but he remains a better pure passer even with declining arm strength. While Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford, and Darrius Heyward-Bey represent intriguing weapons in the passing game, this offense runs through Darren McFadden. I would expect low-end QB2 production the rest of the way, which means Palmer is more valuable than Mark Sanchez but not quite worth dumping a Jay Cutler or Sam Bradford. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.John Beck, Redskins - Coach Mike Shanahan refuses to announce a Week 7 starter until Wednesday, but the game film is going to lead him away from Rex Grossman. Even in Shanahan’s quarterback-friendly offense, I wouldn’t run out to grab Beck in 12-team leagues just yet. There’s certainly top-20 upside, but history suggests Beck’s leash won’t be any longer than Grossman’s was. Consistency will be an issue.Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues. Christian Ponder, Vikings - Ponder did little to impress in August, but he showed positive signs in Sunday night’s relief effort. His arm is stronger than advertised, he moved the offense and has a clear mobility edge on Donovan McNabb. Ponder won’t be confused with Michael Vick any time soon, but he could easily be among the top-five running quarterbacks going forward. His preseason stats include eight rushes for 61 yards in one half of action in the finale. Expect a decision from coach Leslie Frazier by Wednesday. Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.Matt Cassel, Chiefs - Cassel is trending back toward legit QB2 territory with a two-week average of 259 yards and 2.5 touchdowns heading into the Week 6 bye. He’s not a bad emergency start this week against a Raiders defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.Curtis Painter, Colts - He continues to make incremental improvements by the week. Painter is now adjusting at the line of scrimmage and running the no-huddle formation when the situation calls for it. Considering the Colts’ weapons, Painter could easily graduate to top-20 status by late in the season.Recommendation: Should be owned in two-quarterback leagues.Matt Moore, Dolphins - Moore refused to budge from his primary read Monday night, and it killed him. If you’re feeling brave, it’s worth noting that he goes from the defense allowing the 32nd-most fantasy points to opposing QBs in Week 6 to the one allowing the most (Broncos) in Week 7.Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues. Watch List: Charlie Whitehurst, A.J. Feeley, Kyle Orton, Vince YoungThe Seahawks are preparing as if Whitehurst will start against the Browns, but it’s still possible that Tarvaris Jackson will rally late in the week. … Feeley is on red alert with Sam Bradford nursing a high-ankle sprain. … The Raiders are out of the picture for Orton following the Carson Palmer trade. Perhaps the Dolphins will give him a long look in the few hours remaining before the deadline. Cut Bait: Rex Grossman, Donovan McNabb, Jason Campbell, Andy Dalton (bye), Alex Smith (bye)Dalton and Smith aren’t worthy carrying through the bye week in 12-team leagues. … Campbell is done in Oakland following the Palmer trade. … The Vikings may end up cutting McNabb if Ponder takes over. He’s not a “mentor.”Running BacksDeMarco Murray, Cowboys - Entering primarily on running downs, Murray played 26 snaps in relief of Felix Jones compared to 25 primarily on passing downs for Tashard Choice. Jones is expected to miss 2-4 weeks, leaving the two backs to split snaps in his absence. Choice isn’t the player he was two years ago, so Murray figures to garner the majority of the carries in prime matchups against the Rams (fourth-most points to opposing fantasy backs) and Eagles (second-most) the next two weeks. Both backs are worthy of a roster spot during the bye-week crunch.Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Montario Hardesty, Browns - Peyton Hillis is in jeopardy of missing this week’s game against the Seahawks after exiting last week with a hamstring injury. Hardesty would be higher on this list if the matchup was better, but Seattle’s stout front four shuts down opposing running games. If Hillis ends up sitting out, Hardesty’s 15-20 touches will at least grant him flex consideration. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.Maurice Morris, Lions - Starter Jahvid Best is almost certain to sit out this week’s game after sustaining his second concussion of the season. Against the 49ers, Morris played 25 snaps to just two for Keiland Williams while Jerome Harrison was a healthy scratch. Beat writer Dave Birkett confirms that Morris will be “first in line” for carries this week after averaging 55 yards per game alongside a gimpy Best in the second half of last season. Morris should be a low-end RB2/flex option against the Falcons this week.Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.Roy Helu, Redskins - Helu played as the passing-down back behind Ryan Torain last week. Coach Mike Shanahan indicated that Tim Hightower will continue to be an "emergency" third-string back until his shoulder is completely recovered. Check the practice reports this week, but Helu is certainly worthy of a roster stash with attractive matchups against the Panthers and Bills on the horizon. He’s still the most explosive talent in the backfield.Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues. Bernard Scott, Bengals - Scott may no longer be a roster millstone. Per NFL Network’s Jason LaCanfora, Cedric Benson’s suspension has been reduced to one game. The Bengals have a Week 7 bye before a matchup with Seattle’s shut-down run defense. The assumption is that Benson will sit out that Week 8 game, leaving Scott as a less attractive RB2 option.Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues. Donald Brown, Colts - The Colts are beginning to show renewed faith in the 2009 first-round bust after he outplayed Delone Carter for a second straight game. If Joseph Addai (hamstring) sits out against the Saints, Brown will play on passing downs. It’s not unrealistic to believe his touches will increase after averaging 7.3 per last week. He’s more worthy of a roster spot than Carter at this point.Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.C.J. Spiller, Bills - The No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 draft is now a wide receiver. Spiller played outside at the X and Z spots on 32 of his 35 snaps last week, leaving David Nelson in the slot for 39 snaps. Naaman Roosevelt, expected to man the slot, played just 23 snaps. Coach Chan Gailey suggested Spiller will stay outside, leaving him in the No. 3 receiver role. Especially if he’s granted dual eligibility in fantasy leagues, Spiller has flex potential in PPR formats. Recommendation: Should be owned in PPR leagues.Marion Barber, Bears - Barber managed just 2.9 yards per on 11 carries in a blowout victory over the Vikings. He’s not going to eat into Matt Forte’s workload, but it does look like he’s taking over as the designated goal-line back. MBIII is only worthy of a roster spot in touchdown-heavy formats. Recommendation: Worth a look in touchdown-heavy leagues. Watch List: Tashard Choice, Keiland Williams, Jerome Harrison, Danny WoodheadChoice isn't as attractive as Murray, but he's worth a look as a flex play in PPR leagues. ... Williams may be handling goal-line duties, but he has less than 50 yards and just one score through six weeks. … Harrison will likely be active in Week 7, but his workload is a question mark. … Woodhead is worth a look in deeper PPR leagues. Cut Bait: Jonathan Dwyer, Jacquizz Rodgers, Cadillac Williams Dwyer will rot on the bench with Rashard Mendenhall back to full health. … Ditto for an injured Caddy. … Quizz played just four snaps last week compared to 15 for Jason Snelling.Wide ReceiversMichael Crabtree, 49ers - We recommended Crabtree as a top waiver addition two weeks ago, but he still remains unowned in nearly half of all CBSSports.com leagues. While seeing three times as many targets (15) as the next closest receiver last week, Crabtree also doubled his snap count to 52 on his way to a season-high nine receptions. He should be good for reliable WR3 production as Alex Smith’s No. 1 target coming out of the Week 7 bye. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.Greg Little, Browns - Still owned in just a third of CBSSports.com leagues after being elevated to the starting lineup last week, Little came through with six receptions, 72 yards, and a near-touchdown on 12 targets against Raiders. Colt McCoy is on pace for a record 694 pass attempts, and Little is locked in as his No. 1 receiver the rest of the way. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Danario Alexander, Rams - Newly acquired Brandon Lloyd figures to lead the receivers in snaps going forward, leaving Alexander to battle Brandon Gibson and Mark Clayton on the other side with Greg Salas in the slot. Alexander had already moved past Gibson and should hold off Clayton, fresh from the PUP list. DX saw 10 targets on a season-high 66 snaps against the Packers, clearing 90 yards for the second time in four games. Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - Eric Decker is the top receiver in Denver following the Brandon Lloyd trade, but he’s already owned in roughly 90 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. As Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay points out, Tim Tebow is a high risk/high reward passer with a low completion percentage but plenty of yards and touchdowns. Thomas is a major health risk coming off Achilles’ tendon surgery, but his ceiling is even higher than Decker’s if he can get close to recapturing pre-injury form. He’s a classic boom-or-bust roster stash.Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers - It looks like he’s finally back to 100 percent after rehabbing a torn ACL in the offseason. Benn will be hit-or-miss all season, but he’s the lone big-play threat in Tampa right now. He caught a 65-yard touchdown against the Saints and had another long score overturned against the Colts two weeks ago. Stash him in deeper leagues.Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.Greg Salas, Rams - After a nightmare performance on Monday Night Football early in the season, Salas took advantage of a second chance in the slot with eight receptions for 77 yards on 10 targets against the Packers. Touchdowns will be scarce in this offense and Salas will lose a few targets to Brandon Lloyd, but he’s certainly worth a look in PPR formats. Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks - As we pointed out last week, the Seahawks have found their long-term slot receiver. One of the most highly sought after undrafted free agents, Baldwin has been called “Bobby Engram with speed.” He carries more value with Charlie Whitehurst under center, and the Seahawks are preparing Whitehurst to start against a Browns defense missing Joe Haden this week. Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week solution.Steve Breaston, Chiefs - Breaston racked up eight catches, 141 yards, and two scores in the two games heading into the Chiefs’ bye. If he remains available, he’s worth a look as a top-40 option this week against the Raiders. Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week solution. Damian Williams, Titans - Williams scored in each of the two games heading into the Titans’ Week 6 bye, and he led the team in targets in Week 5. He’s worth stashing as a WR5 for matchup purposes during the bye-week crunch.Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues. Watch List: Braylon Edwards, Mark Clayton, Eddie Royal, Dane SanzenbacherEdwards is due back from knee surgery after this week’s bye. … Clayton’s path to fantasy value just got blocked by Brandon Lloyd. … Royal is the third most attractive Denver receiver in a run-oriented offense. … Sanzenbacher’s snaps are still too inconsistent.Hold Off: Jerome Simpson, Naaman Roosevelt, Jason Hill, Devin HesterSimpson was merely the latest receiver to exploit Colts CB Jacob Lacey. His own head coach was unsatisfied with his performance in a 100-yard game. Don’t chase those points. … Roosevelt saw just two targets while playing fewer wide-receiver snaps than C.J. Spiller. … Hester is dealing with a chest injury while coming off his best game in two years. … Hill is a mirage.Cut Bait: Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, Harry Douglas, Antonio Brown, Jason Avant, Austin Collie, Ted GinnThree Saints receivers played more snaps than Meachem in Week 6 after he led the group in snaps the week prior. He and Moore have been remaindered while Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and Darren Sproles hog the targets. … Douglas did little to impress with Julio Jones out. … Brown’s targets are on the wane. … If you chased Avant’s Week 5 points, it’s time to cut the fish loose. … Collie may well be a better receiver than Pierre Garcon, but Curtis Painter doesn’t see it that way. Tight EndsFred Davis, Redskins - Davis led Redskins skill position players in snaps last week, which is no surprise considering he’s led all season. For the third time in five games, Davis was also the best offensive player on the field for the Redskins while pouring six catches and 95 yards on the Eagles. With Chris Cooley out of the picture for the next month and a half, Davis is once again a rock-solid TE1. He should be owned in all leagues, not the 60 percent on CBSSports.com.Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Ed Dickson, Ravens - Dickson is coming off a disappointing 20-yard performance against the Texans, but he’s worth a look this week for matchup purposes. The Jaguars allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including monster games by Jimmy Graham, Dustin Keller, and Greg Olsen. Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.Jake Ballard, Giants - Eli Manning is averaging 322 yards per game ever since Victor Cruz emerged as a dangerous third receiver. A byproduct has been an open seam allowing Ballard to gut defenses down the middle. Ballard’s five Week 6 targets are a season-high, so don’t expect that two-week average of 77 yards to carry over coming out of the Week 7 bye. He’s purely a TE2 option.Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.Lance Kendricks, Rams - A stud in August, Kendricks finally showed up in a real game with 71 yards on four receptions. A 45-yard gain courtesy of a vicious stiff-arm nearly made up for another key drop. If Kendricks ever starts playing with confidence, he has high-end TE2 potential. Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues. Watch List: Rob HouslerTodd Heap’s (hamstring) status is up in the air after sitting out Monday’s practice. It’s worth noting that rookie Housler saw eight targets in his absence two weeks ago. Keep him in mind for a late-week add in deeper leagues.Hold Off: Jeremy ShockeyShockey has been good for 25-50 yards per week, but he’s yet to find the end zone.Cut Bait: Chris Cooley, Scott ChandlerCooley is out six weeks with shattered index finger. … Chandler hasn’t topped 10 yards in a game in a month.Defense/Special TeamsCowboys - Rob Ryan’s Browns defense stifled the Patriots for a mere 14 points in Week 9 of last season. His Cowboys defense held the Pats to 20 points last week. In between, Tom Brady topped 30 points against every other team on the schedule. Now healthy, Ryan’s crew is leading the NFL in run defense while also getting to the quarterback. The Cowboys could be welcoming A.J. Feeley to town this week, as Sam Bradford is battling a high-ankle sprain.Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.Chargers - The Chargers allow just the 25th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the 28th-most points to opposing running backs. That’s bad news for a Jets offense that struggled to move the ball through the air or on the ground against a winless Dolphins team Monday night. Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.Chiefs - Even with the Palmer trade, beat writer Steve Corkran expects Kyle Boller to start this week’s game against the Chiefs. Palmer will get up to speed in Hue Jackson’s offense during the Week 8 bye. In 66 games and 46 starts, Boller has racked up 51 interceptions and 41 fumbles. He’s like an unholy amalgam of Rex Grossman and Dave Kreig. Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation matchup play.
Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with
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Chris Wesseling