4:15PM ET Games
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 player in fantasy football, leading the NFL in completion rate (70.2%), passing scores (17), touchdown rate (TDs/pass attempts), yards per attempt (9.8), and adjusted YPA (factoring in interceptions). This is the league's best quarterback, and Minnesota's No. 24 pass defense won't slow his roll. ... Top Vikings CB Antoine Winfield is due back from his neck injury this week. Winfield guards the slot when opponents go three-wide, so he'll go to waste on Donald Driver and/or Randall Cobb. ... Greg Jennings has a ridiculous seven-catch, 105-yard average and five touchdowns in his last three meetings with the Vikings. Jennings plays most of his snaps outside and should mostly avoid Winfield's coverage. ... Looking for Jermichael Finley to get back on track? Minnesota's Cover 2 may be just what the doctor ordered. Finley lit up Chicago's similar scheme for 85 yards and three TDs on seven catches in Week 3, and in Finley's last meeting with Minnesota he had six catches for 128 yards and a score. ... Jordy Nelson is the No. 11 fantasy receiver, killing single teams en route to an 11-touchdown pace and 69 yards a game. Expect Nelson to face off with burnable Vikings CB Cedric Griffin for most of this one.
UPDATE: Winfield is listed as doubtful on the final injury report. The Vikings will be without two starters in the secondary, as SS Jamarca Sanford (concussion) is also expected to miss the game. They have little prayer of containing the Green Bay passing game.
James Jones reached pay dirt for a third straight game in Week 6, but saw just one target. Again, Rodgers will continue to throw to Jones if he's open, but he's always a dicey play as Green Bay's No. 4 passing-game option. ... James Starks led the backfield in touches for a fourth time in five games last week, but failed to capitalize on a mouth-watering matchup against St. Louis' last-ranked run defense. With no end in sight to Green Bay's hot-hand committee, it's a situation to avoid in Week 7. The Vikings have a top-five run defense, permitting 3.45 yards per carry. Starks remains the better bet if you're deciding between him and Ryan Grant. The possibility of a blowout win over a team letting a rookie QB make his first start is realistic and even probable, potentially increasing rushing chances. Starks just hasn't played well enough to truly justify using in such a difficult matchup. ... Grant is essentially waiver-wire material at this point. Not only is he getting the ball less than Starks, Grant has averaged 2.69 yards a carry in his last two games, and wouldn't even be assured the feature back role were Starks to get injured. In that scenario, the Packers would likely turn to Alex Green and/or John Kuhn to handle Starks' role. Grant doesn't have much left.
The Vikings will throw Christian Ponder to the wolves in his first start, facing off with the defending Super Bowl champs. The Packers lead the NFC in interceptions and have shut down the last two passing games they've faced. Minnesota's combo of dead-legged wideouts and porous O-Line was a disastrous recipe for a veteran quarterback, and it's difficult to envision a debuting rookie having any more success. While Ponder has athleticism Donovan McNabb no longer does, it's likely the only way this year's biggest draft reach could accumulate substantive fantasy production would come in throw-happy comeback mode. I can't imagine starting Ponder, Michael Jenkins, or even Percy Harvin, who played a neck-wringing 29-of-66 Week 6 snaps (43.9%). ... After Ponder replaced McNabb, he targeted Jenkins four times, Berrian twice, and Harvin twice. So as of yet, there is no evidence that suggests Ponder's insertion will save Minnesota's slot receiver. ... The Packers will surely gear up to stop Adrian Peterson, but that's gone on for years and Peterson hasn't finished outside the top-three fantasy backs in his career. Peterson leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns and carries, and is sure to remain the offensive focal point in Ponder's first start. All Day is averaging 121.5 total yards per game in eight career meetings with the Pack.
Score Prediction: Packers 38, Vikings 13
St. Louis @ Dallas
The Rams' defense ranks 32nd versus the run, but opportunistic offenses prefer attacking it with the pass. It makes sense with St. Louis' top three corners on I.R. A comedy of errors occurred in the injury-ruined secondary on Jordy Nelson's 93-yard Week 6 touchdown catch, as SS Darian Stewart blew a tackle before losing his footing to trip nearby CB Al Harris out of the play. Nelson ran untouched to pay dirt. The Cowboys are without Felix Jones (high ankle sprain), and their best talent was always in the passing game, so a throw-happy approach seems likely. Tony Romo has at least 300 yards in four of his first five games, and among NFC teams only New Orleans has allowed more passing scores than St. Louis. ... Dez Bryant has oddly gone reception-less in 3-of-5 second halves this season, but should have a field day against washed-up Harris in coverage. The former Packer turns 37 in two months. ... Miles Austin played 66-of-74 snaps (89.2%) in his Week 6 return from a hamstring injury. He has an even more favorable matchup than Bryant, squaring off with oft-burned CB Justin King. King plays left cornerback in St. Louis' base defense and moves to the slot on passing downs, so he'll essentially follow Austin around the formation. According to Pro Football Focus, King has allowed five touchdown passes in the last three games.
The above scenario would bode well for fill-in tailback DeMarco Murray, whose college strength was the passing game with 157 receptions at Oklahoma, more than any running back drafted in April. Murray saw extensive action with Dallas' first-team offense when Jones was healthy last week, and received six of the backfield's ensuing seven touches following Felix's injury. All told, Murray amassed 12 touches compared to Tashard Choice's six after Jones went down. While this is going to be a rotation, Murray is Dallas' clear favorite for carries and catches, making him a worthwhile flex against St. Louis' soft front seven. In addition to ranking last in the league in run defense, the Rams are serving up a healthy 4.85 yards per carry. ... Choice did receive three red-zone touches to Murray's two last week, although the former isn't a good bet for more than 7-10 carries and 3-5 receptions in this game. Dating back to Week 14 last year, Choice is averaging a lowly 2.92 yards per rushing attempt. ... Jason Witten ranks second in the NFL in targets per game among tight ends, behind only Jimmy Graham. He's the No. 4 tight end in fantasy football.
The start-ability of every Rams skill player will be heavily impacted by the status of Sam Bradford (high ankle sprain). ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Wednesday that the Rams expect Bradford to play, but multiple national insiders have since either speculated or reported otherwise. St. Louis would simply be unlikely to stay competitive with A.J. Feeley at quarterback. The 34-year-old journeyman has well below league-average talent and no experience in Josh McDaniels' offense aside from practice. Feeley would also be facing a top-five defense. ... The Cowboys rank first against the run, allowing 3.35 YPC and a single rushing score in five games. Steven Jackson needs to be benched if Feeley starts. St. Louis-Dallas is a 4:15ET game, so we may not have a good feel for Bradford's availability until late afternoon Sunday. ... Feeley doesn't have arm power to consistently deliver the football outside the numbers. It's why he's only had previous success in West Coast offenses. Brandon Lloyd goes from high-upside WR2 with Bradford to bottom-barrel WR3 with Feeley. ... The Rams' No. 2 receiver job is up for grabs, and it's a week to wait and see for that situation. Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson are in the mix. Greg Salas is expected to man the slot. ... Lance Kendricks has had an awful start to his rookie season. He's averaging just 35 yards a game and leads all NFL tight ends in drops despite ranking 22nd in targets.
UPDATE: Bradford missed a third straight day of practice, and ESPN's John Clayton is reporting that he's "doubtful" to play against the Cowboys. The Rams, officially, consider Bradford a game-time decision. The smart money still says he won't play.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Rams 16
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis @ New Orleans
Colts-Saints has Week 7's highest over/under. Start your studs. ... No defense in football fields a smaller cornerback trio than the Colts, with LCB Jacob Lacey (5'10/177), RCB Jerraud Powers (5'10/192), and slot CB Terrence Johnson (5'9/190) comprising the nickel lineup. It comes as little surprise that they've been exposed by big wideouts Jerome Simpson (6-101), Dwayne Bowe (7-128-2), and A.J. Green (5-51-1) over the past two weeks. All three are 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds or better. At full health and a full-time player again, Marques Colston goes 6'4/225 and is coming off his best game of 2011. ... On Sunday, Jimmy Graham will look to break Tony Gonzalez's NFL tight end record for most consecutive 100-yard receiving games. Graham has four in a row and leads his position in fantasy points by a margin that grows by the week. He may quietly be the league's most dominant pass catcher. ... Here are the target and snap counts for Saints wide receivers from Week 6: Colston 11 and 52, Lance Moore 3 and 40, Devery Henderson 2 and 29, and Robert Meachem 2 and 21. It's become a pick-your-poison kind of situation behind Colston.
Updated Saints red-zone touches (season totals): Mark Ingram 20, Darren Sproles 12, Pierre Thomas 7. ... Thomas is averaging 2.07 yards per carry in his last two games. If that continues, he'll eventually be weeded out of the offense in favor of Ingram. Thomas lost a fumble and didn't touch the football in the red zone last week, while previous surprise goal-line vulture Jed Collins didn't carry the ball at all. ... With Thomas struggling and touchdowns in three of his past four games, the winds may be blowing toward Ingram's breakout week. Indy's defense ranks 30th against the run and has allowed seven rushing scores through six games. Over the past three weeks, Chiefs, Bucs, and Bengals backs have racked up 428 yards and two touchdowns on 89 carries (4.81 YPC) against the Colts. This is a favorable matchup for Ingram, and the sudden retirement of C Olin Kreutz helps his cause. Kreutz was getting manhandled on the interior; it looked like he retired last offseason. I’m guessing he was playing at 245 pounds. ... The sample size is admittedly small, but Drew Brees has six TD passes, a 320-yard average, and 70.4 completion rate in two home games this season. Brees is a top-four fantasy quarterback on the year.
Curtis Painter is a sneaky desperation bye-week QB1. He has a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio through three starts, and the Colts' pass protection has improved since Peyton Manning began chipping in with playcalls. Painter has taken one sack in the last two games. The Saints' defense is generating an embarrassing lack of pressure despite blitzing on over 70% of plays, and last week didn't sack Josh Freeman once while serving up his season-best game. In a projected shootout against a defense that's yielded the NFL's most passing TDs, I'd feel good about Painter as a two-QB league starter at worst. ... This is also a good week to use Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon as WR3s. Wayne has the superior matchup against struggling RCB Tracy Porter. Garcon leads Indy in targets by a healthy margin since Painter took over. Here's the distribution from Painter so far: Garcon 27, Wayne 21, Dallas Clark 16, Austin Collie 15. ... Clark finally had a productive game in Week 6 (6-53-1), but may be kept in to block against Saints DC Gregg Williams' blitz-happy defense. Clark just isn't trustworthy. ... The Saints allow the third highest yards-per-carry average against (5.12 YPC) in football, which perhaps is a factor that could help jumpstart sluggish-moving Delone Carter. Carter received 14 touches in Week 6, compared to Donald Brown's seven. Brown scored an 18-yard touchdown and remains the better runner, but isn't getting the rock enough.
UPDATE: Addai made a borderline-shocking return to practice Friday, participating in full. The Indianapolis Star now expects Addai to play against the Saints, killing the fantasy appeal of both Carter and Brown. Addai also isn't a recommended option, despite the game's high-scoring projection. There's no way to tell Addai's game-day role, or whether he'll be effective coming off what was supposed to be a multi-week injury. He's only missed one game.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 23
Monday Night Football
Baltimore @ Jacksonville
"They are the best defense I've seen in years," ESPN's Ron Jaworski said of the Ravens this week. "This year, they've taken it to another level." Jaws went so far as to suggest that the 2011 Ravens defense has approached the level of 2000, when Baltimore won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. The Ravens field a top-seven unit versus both the run and pass, presenting Week 7's biggest mismatch against Jacksonville's 32nd-ranked offense. Baltimore should control this game from start to finish, dominating time of possession and limiting the impact of all Jacksonville skill-position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the only Jaguar worth a serious look, and even he's risky. MJD's passing-game contributions are way down this year, and the Ravens have already kept Arian Foster (15-49-0), Chris Johnson (24-53-0), Rashard Mendenhall (12-45-0), and Shonn Greene (10-23-0) all out of the end zone. If you're keeping score at home, those backs have a combined 2.79 yards-per-carry average against Baltimore.
This game has Week 7's lowest over-under at a paltry 39 points. If Baltimore's shutdown defense wasn't reason enough to sit your Jaguars, the low-scoring projection should be. ... Mike Thomas is the No. 41 fantasy receiver, struggling in his conversion from slot to featured wideout. Thomas' yards-per-catch average has dropped from 2010, he has one touchdown in five games, and his yardage has slipped in three straight weeks. ... Contending with Dallas Clark to be this year's top tight end bust, Marcedes Lewis figures to spend this game on the line blocking Terrell Suggs. Lewis is averaging 23.2 yards per game, hasn't scored yet this season, and has no chemistry with Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert targeted Lewis a team-high eight times in Week 6, but the duo hooked up just twice for 29 yards. ... The Jags brought back Mike Sims-Walker this week after he was cut by the Rams. Over the past two years, Sims-Walker has been exposed as a JAG ("Just a Guy"). He may replace Jason Hill as a starter, but won't save this putrid passing offense. ... Gabbert has done well to avoid turnovers for the most part, but the coaching staff has shown little confidence in him. They were still calling run plays down by two touchdowns against the Steelers last week.
The Jaguars opened the year defending the run well, but this is hardly an imposing matchup for Ray Rice. Over the past three weeks, Jacksonville has surrendered 439 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 97 carries (4.53 YPC). Even if the per-play average were still low, the Jaguars are falling behind early in games, letting opponents take the air out of the ball, and watching them rack up rushing attempts. Rice is the No. 4 overall back in fantasy points per game and an elite RB1. ... Anquan Boldin racked up season bests in receptions (8) and yards (132) last week and figures to give the Jags fits because he works the middle of the field, where Jacksonville's Cover 2 is most vulnerable. Boldin has continued to see significant playing time in the slot this season. ... The Jaguars are allowing an average of over 80 yards per game to tight ends, the most in football. If I'm picking between tight ends in this game, I'm going with Ed Dickson over Marcedes Lewis.
The Jags have a top-eight pass defense, allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and the NFL's third fewest 20-plus yard completions among teams that have played six games. It's a scheme thing; the defense is designed to limit long passing plays. This all adds up to a poor matchup for one-trick pony deep threat Torrey Smith. While Smith is a full-time player and did earn himself some credibility with 84 yards in Week 6, keep in mind that he only saw five targets, catching three, and got 61% of the yardage on a 51-yard bomb against easily-beaten Texans CB Kareem Jackson. Smith isn't going to be a heavily targeted player in the Ravens' offense, so he'll require big plays to maintain respectable production. ... Joe Flacco has topped 225 passing yards in two games so far. While there are worse fantasy options out there, Flacco just doesn't offer a high ceiling on a weekly basis. Hopefully, you find a quarterback with more upside in Sunday's games.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 10
1:00PM ET Games
Denver @ Miami
In Tim Tebow's four career opportunities at meaningful playing time, the Broncos' rushing attack has 107 carries for 465 yards (4.35 YPC) and five touchdowns. Tebow has thrown 91 passes netting 730 yards (8.02 YPA) and five more scores. The yards-per-attempt average would rank eighth in the NFL today. These numbers compare favorably to Kyle Orton's last four appearances (4.21 YPC with just one touchdown for the running game, 6.19 YPA). Whereas Tom Brady has averaged 0.44 fantasy points per snap this year, Tebow averages 0.45 per play in his 12 career appearances. It won't always look pretty, but Tebow moves the chains, sets up his team to score, and absolutely lights up box scores. In this game, Tebow will have the entirety of Sun Life Stadium behind him in his return to Florida. There are only five QBs I'd play over Tebow in Week 7: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, and Tony Romo. ... The Broncos haven't exactly bent over backwards to position Tebow for success by trading away top receiver Brandon Lloyd, but Eric Decker owners ought to be thrilled. Decker was already averaging nine targets per start in an offense that ranked 26th in passing yards per game, and 25th in pass attempts. Decker is now Denver's No. 1 passing-game option. Expect every-week WR3 value the rest of the way.
Willis McGahee has the Broncos' backfield all to himself with Knowshon Moreno yet to exceed three touches in any game since Week 1. Just be wary of inevitable statistical regression. While McGahee deserves credit for his 7.35 YPC average in two games prior to the Week 6 bye, Tebow will vulture short-yardage scores as well as open-field carries on designed quarterback runs. The Dolphins' rush defense showed it's back in business by holding Jets backs to a combined 99 scoreless yards on 28 carries (3.53 average) last Monday night. McGahee should get the ball 18-20 times, but his recent per-play production is unsustainable, his scoring chances are sure to decline, and defenses will crowd the line of scrimmage to guard against both his and Tebow's run threat, daring the offense to beat them with the pass. In fantasy, McGahee will come crashing back to earth. ... Moreno is a clear backup and McGahee handcuff only. ... With Decker inheriting the lead role in Denver's pass-catching corps, Eddie Royal is left to "compete" for targets and snaps with Demaryius Thomas and Matt Willis. Thomas easily has the most talent of the group and is the only secondary wideout worth a fantasy flier. Just don't expect an immediate starting job, and be skeptical about Thomas' effectiveness eight months removed from an Achilles' tear.
It makes you wonder what the Dolphins ever saw in Matt Moore. After an atrocious performance in last Monday's loss to the Jets, Moore is now 112-of-203 passing (55.2%) for 1,228 yards (6.05 YPA), five touchdowns, and 13 interceptions with 17 sacks taken in his last eight appearances. Sage Rosenfels will be playing soon. ... On the bright side in fantasy is the fact that Moore got the ball to Brandon Marshall six times for 109 yards. Moore is absolutely force feeding the Fins' No. 1 receiver. Since replacing Chad Henne in the first quarter of Week 4, Moore's target distribution: Marshall 22, Brian Hartline 10, Davone Bess 7, Anthony Fasano 5. I'd say to be wary of Marshall because of Champ Bailey's likely "shadow" coverage, but he repeatedly beat Darrelle Revis one-on-one last week. Marshall is playing at an extremely high level, and for better or worse Moore isn't afraid to throw to him. According to Pro Football Focus, Moore targeted Revis a season-high 14 times last week. ... The theory that Moore's alleged check-down tendencies would rejuvenate Bess hasn't come to fruition, and the slot receiver's fantasy value is officially in the gutter as a part-time player behind Hartline. Bess has only played 60-of-122 snaps (49.2%) in the last two games.
Daniel Thomas has 61 touches for 298 yards (4.89 average) in his last three games, while Reggie Bush has 38 for 168 (4.42). The averages are similar, but the touch distribution is obviously in Thomas' favor. Moore is playing so poorly that the Fins have no choice but to approach this game with a decidedly run-first mindset. While Thomas struggled in last week's loss to the Jets, he's likely to get the rock 20 or more times against Denver's No. 23 run defense. I'd want Thomas in my lineup this week. ... Bush broke off a 36-yard run in Week 6, but remains a change-of-pace back only. His receptions are in decline because the Fins haven't figured out how to use him correctly.
Score Prediction: Broncos 31, Dolphins 20
San Diego @ NY Jets
A suddenly run-soft Jets defense enters this game on a short week after Monday night's win, while San Diego's offense is fresh off a bye. Since Week 1, tailbacks have gutted New York for five touchdowns and 686 yards on 148 carries (4.64 YPC). They're going to have problems with Ryan Mathews. A top-seven back in fantasy points per game, Mathews is averaging 135 total yards a week while leapfrogging Mike Tolbert for the feature back role. Whereas Tolbert managed 20 combined touches in Weeks 3-5, Mathews piled up 71. Off the injury report after a full practice week, Mathews is easily a top-ten running back play. ... Tolbert has settled in as San Diego's change-of-pace and goal-line runner, though he's reached pay dirt just once since the opener. He's a weak flex. ... The Jets haven't faced dangerous tight ends aside from Rob Gronkowski and Jason Witten, but are still surrendering five catches for nearly 60 yards per game to the position. New York's defensive strength is its press-man outside cornerback play, and 5-foot-8, 188-pound free safety Jim Leonhard is an obvious matchup liability against big, physical pass catchers. Antonio Gates is expected to play in this game, even if it's primarily in red-zone packages. He'll remain the best bet for a receiving touchdown on San Diego's roster. Don't hesitate to start him.
The Chargers and Jets last squared off on January 17, 2010 in the second round of the playoffs. New York didn't assign Darrelle Revis to Vincent Jackson in the game, and V-Jax went off for 111 yards on seven receptions, avoiding Revis' coverage for each and every catch. Brandon Marshall had success against Revis on Monday night, and the buzz in New York is that Revis will move around the formation again, seeing a balanced amount of action on Jackson, Gates, and Malcom Floyd. Lock in V-Jax as a rock-solid WR2. In terms of targets, he's sure to benefit in the open field if Gates only plays when the Chargers move inside the 20. ... In the aforementioned playoff game, Gates successfully complemented Jackson with eight catches for 93 yards, but Malcom Floyd was left with 30 scoreless yards on three grabs. With Gates and Jackson back, Floyd's fantasy appeal returns to the toilet. He'll be the No. 3 or 4 passing-game option (if you include running backs) as San Diego takes on a top-five pass defense. It's not a good situation. ... Philip Rivers has started slow because his entire receiver corps has been affected by injuries. Two weeks ago, Rivers would've been a recommended "sit" in this matchup. He's now more of a low-end QB1.
Including the 2009 playoffs, Shonn Greene averaged 5.21 yards per carry during his rookie year. He's at 3.88 in 21 regular season games since, and 3.38 this year. (Maybe Greene finds a second gear in postseasons? He averages 5.07 yards per rush in six career playoff games.) Regardless, Greene essentially hit rock bottom last week with a scoreless, 21-carry, 74-yard game against Miami that confirmed he's capable of only getting what's blocked, and sometimes not even that. Greene needs heavy volume for worthwhile production. At least this is a fairly favorable matchup on paper. The Jets' defense should limit San Diego's scoring to keep the game close and the rushing game alive, and the Chargers' defense is surrendering 4.62 yards per carry. ... Passing-game efficiency has picked up since the Jets reverted to a Ground & Pound offense two weeks ago, although Mark Sanchez has averaged just 25.5 attempts and 184 yards versus the Dolphins and Patriots' bottom-four pass defenses. San Diego ranks second in the league against the pass.
The philosophical shift on offense has affected Dustin Keller more than any Jets pass catcher. Whereas Keller averaged eight targets and 66 yards per game in Weeks 1-4, he's down to 3 1/2 targets for 29 yards in the last two. Keller has maintained a sturdy 83.8% snap rate, but he's now "competing" for possession route targets with Plaxico Burress, new slot man Jeremy Kerley, and passing-down specialist LaDainian Tomlinson in a decidedly run-heavy offense. It's a situation to avoid. ... Plax hasn't scored in the past three weeks and is averaging 29.2 yards in the last five. Ranked 49th among fantasy receivers, he's a WR5. ... Santonio Holmes, on the other hand, has capitalized on Ground & Pound as a big-play artist who benefits from more defenders in the box, distracting loaded pass coverage. Lined up in the slot, Holmes whipped the Patriots' secondary for a 21-yard touchdown on an out route in Week 5. Last Monday night, Holmes made four Dolphins defenders miss en route to a 38-yard score. Holmes is an every-week WR3 in fantasy football.
Score Prediction: Chargers 24, Jets 17
Washington @ Carolina
With a quarterback making his first start in four years and his left tackle out indefinitely due to a high ankle sprain, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan has no choice but to enlist an extremely run-oriented Week 7 game plan. It can't hurt, of course, that Carolina ranks 31st against the run while allowing league highs in rushing scores (8), 20-yard runs (10), and 40-yard runs (3). While fantasy owners have every right to be disappointed in Ryan Torain's Week 6 effort (10-22), they have only Rex Grossman to blame for forcing Shanahan to abandon the run after an early two-TD deficit. The Skins finished with just 13 designed run plays. Torain remains the favorite for carries in D.C., and John Beck will be much more game manager to Grossman's pseudo-gunslinger. In what will be a closer game from the outset, Torain should flirt with 20-22 touches as a high-upside RB2. ... Tim Hightower didn't play a Week 6 snap and is expected to remain on the backburner until further notice. He didn't get it done with a 3.48 YPC average in the first month. ... The Redskins' back to watch in terms of long-range potential is rookie Roy Helu. Initially, Helu didn't receive feature back consideration because he struggled in training camp passing-game drills, but he played on all third downs against Philadelphia. Even if the touches aren't quite there yet, it's a sign that Helu's development as an NFL running back is going smoothly. His time is likely coming.
After Beck replaced Grossman in Week 6, he targeted Fred Davis a team-high four times. It's a small sample, of course, but Davis spent much of camp working with Beck, who rotated with the first- and second-team offenses throughout August. Beck and Davis were often on the field together in preseason games. The two should have a formidable rapport, and Chris Cooley's indefinite absence due to a shattered finger and possible further knee surgery will keep Davis in the mix as a TE1. ... Washington's likely run-heavy approach is a concern for Santana Moss, but shouldn't push him off the WR3 ledge. He's been steady with at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in 4-of-5 games. Moss is still the QB's first read on the majority of passing plays. ... Jabar Gaffney ranks just 44th among receivers in fantasy scoring, and is droppable in 12-team leagues with the move to Beck. He's the clear-cut No. 3 option in a passing game that doesn't project to throw as often.
Cam Newton is the No. 3 fantasy quarterback through six starts, posting 17.5 points last week in his worst statistical game of the year. As has been said before in this space, Newton is consistent with an exceptionally high "floor." Though Newton threw three Week 6 interceptions, only the last was really his fault -- on a last-second Hail Mary attempt. The first pick was tipped by a leaping Falcons linebacker into CB Brent Grimes' hands, and the second came on a great play by Falcons DT Corey Peters to snuff out a screen-pass attempt. Newton is an every-week fantasy starter, and matchups don't matter. ... It is worth noting for the fantasy matchups of Newton's receivers, however, that the Redskins have a top-nine pass defense and have allowed the fewest passing TDs in the NFC. While Steve Smith figures to have his way with gambling CB DeAngelo Hall, Legedu Naanee and Brandon LaFell should be left on fantasy benches and/or waiver wires.
Washington is weaker in run than pass defense, surrendering 4.57 YPC and flashing susceptibility to long runs. The Panthers' backfield just doesn't provide enough volume for fantasy comfort, and last week's game reinforced that notion. While DeAngelo Williams started and equaled his season high with 13 touches, he managed 46 total yards without a score. Jonathan Stewart racked up 72 yards and a touchdown, but only got the ball ten times. J-Stew is clearly the more productive per-play back, averaging 6.46 yards per touch. Williams' average is 5.30, a clip that falls to 4.19 if you leave out his 69-yard Week 5 touchdown. It's Williams' lone score on the season. ... Over the past four weeks, the Skins have given up 17 catches for 155 yards and one touchdown to tight ends. Those aren't particularly favorable numbers for Greg Olsen, who is trying to play through turf toe. I don't like Olsen as much as usual this week, but he's scored plenty to stick with as a low-end TE1.
Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Redskins 24
Seattle @ Cleveland
The Seahawks run defense is pounding opponents into submission, forcing offenses to resort to the pass to move the ball. Despite a 2-3 record and consistently playing from behind, Seattle is in the top ten in passing yards allowed per game. They're permitting just 3.13 yards per carry, and 330-pound big uglies Red Bryant and Alan Branch are fresh off a bye. While Montario Hardesty projects as Cleveland's feature back in this game with Peyton Hillis nursing a hamstring pull, Hardesty offers limited upside as a flex option only. On the year, Hardesty has proven a mediocre talent with 143 yards on 40 rushing attempts (3.57 YPC) and countless drops in the passing game. ... The Browns are hopeful that Hillis will be available for blitz-pickup situations against Seattle. Hillis didn't practice this week and should safely be on fantasy benches. Owners will just have to sit tight and hope Hillis gets healthy, because he doesn't have much trade value right now.
As expected, Greg Little took over as the Browns' featured pass catcher following his post-bye promotion into the starting lineup. Comfortably leading Cleveland with 12 targets in Week 6, Little secured a game-high six for 72 yards and narrowly missed a touchdown when he slipped at the Raiders' one after a first-quarter red-zone reception of 15 yards. Little played a season-high snap percentage (69-of-71), moving to the slot on every passing down. The Browns, of course, have a ton of passing downs because they 1) rank second in the NFL in pass attempts per game and 2) frequently play from behind. It's an excellent fantasy situation. In Week 7, Little will square off with oft-burned Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner on early downs and rookie Richard Sherman when Little kicks to the slot. Per Pro Football Focus, Browner has allowed 28 of the last 35 throws against him to be complete (80%) for 389 yards (11.1 YPA) and two touchdowns. Sherman is a fifth-round pick many NFL teams projected to safety coming out of Stanford. ... Colt McCoy and the rest of the Browns' receivers are simply hands off with Little dominating targets on offense. Mohamed Massaquoi is averaging 45 yards per game, Ben Watson 42, and Evan Moore 20.
A Browns pass defense that ranks in the NFL's top four to this point is suddenly incredibly banged up. Shutdown CB Joe Haden (knee) won't be 100 percent in the questionable-to-doubtful event he does face Seattle, and nickel back Buster Skrine suffered a hip injury in practice this week, jeopardizing his availability. The Haden factor shouldn't deter owners from using Sidney Rice as a WR3. ... The Seahawks are expected to start Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback with Tarvaris Jackson nursing a pectoral strain in his throwing arm. After replacing Jackson in Week 5 -- before Seattle's Week 6 bye -- Whitehurst looked to slot receiver Doug Baldwin early and often. The two hooked up on all six Whitehurst-to-Baldwin targets for 90 yards, including a 27-yard TD. Baldwin's matchup is also improved due to the state of Cleveland's secondary. ... Target distribution after Whitehurst replaced Jackson against the Giants: Baldwin 6, Rice 4, Ben Obomanu 3 (all incomplete), and Golden Tate 2. ... Obomanu played significant snaps recently only because Big Mike Williams was out with a concussion. "BMW" returns this week, eliminating both from fantasy consideration.
Before the bye week, Marshawn Lynch turned it on a bit against the Justin Tuck-less Giants, who've struggled mightily in run defense without their star end. In Lynch's other four games, he's failed to hit four yards a carry while adding next to nothing in the pass game. Lynch averaged a pathetic 35.2 rushing yards per week in the first month. Cleveland's No. 27 run defense ranking makes it look vulnerable on the surface, but it's permitting just 3.91 YPC with two rushing scores allowed through five games. The reason the Browns rank so low is because opponents grab early leads against them and take the air out of the football. Do you believe the Seahawks will put Cleveland in a first-half hole and run away with this game? If so, start Marshawn Lynch. I wouldn't.
Score Prediction: Browns 21, Seahawks 17
Houston @ Tennessee
Arian Foster has scuffled on the ground in his last two games, but elite every-down backs keep fantasy owners happy with receiving-saved stat lines. While Foster is averaging 3.16 yards per carry during that span, he's also come through with 285 total yards. The Titans boast a top-ten run defense, but Foster's "floor" is very high. He's an every-week starter. ... Andre Johnson (hamstring) will miss a third game, leaving Matt Schaub to fend for himself with weak weaponry and a likely run-first approach in a poor matchup. Only the defenses of Pittsburgh and Detroit have allowed fewer yards per pass attempt than the Titans, who are fresh coming off a bye. Having topped 230 yards in just 2-of-6 games so far, Schaub is no more than a high-end QB2. ... Jacoby Jones flashed his playmaking ability with 76 yards and a touchdown on four Week 6 catches, but history says Jones will follow up a big game with a clunker. Because Jones typically lines up on the left side of the offensive formation, he's likely to spend most of this game in Titans RCB Cortland Finnegan's coverage. A feisty, physical corner, Finnegan has been dynamite in pass defense all year. According to Pro Football Focus, he's allowing a stingy 9.6 yards per attempt against.
The Ravens' Week 6 double teaming of Owen Daniels opened up the field for Jones, but it's hard to bank on that continuing. Tennessee will have to be more concerned with Jones after watching the tape, and the Titans' shaky safety play routinely makes them vulnerable to tight ends. In their last three games, the Titans have allowed three touchdowns and 176 yards on 16 catches combined to tight ends of Denver, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland, none of which fields a particularly dangerous player at the position. If I'm a betting man, my money is still on Daniels leading the Texans in targets, catches, and receiving yardage in Week 7. ... Kevin Walter is never going to be more than a run-of-the-mill possession receiver, but he's put up quality numbers with Johnson out. On 14 targets in two games, Walter has 11 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. Walter also had seven receptions for 79 yards and a score in his last game against Tennessee.
This projects as a low-scoring, defense-dominated game. Both the Titans and Texans have top-ten defenses in yards and points allowed, and each team has lost its best receiver to injury. A Kenny Britt-less Matt Hasselbeck will settle in as a mid-range QB2 the rest of the way, deferring to a balanced to run-heavy offense with a far less explosive supporting cast. Damian Williams is averaging just 10.4 yards per reception, while Nate Washington has commanded considerably more defensive attention since Britt went down. Williams is a low-end, low-upside WR3, while Washington is likely to draw plenty of Johnathan Joseph in coverage. ... Optimists can point to Jared Cook's three-game target increase as reason to believe his role may be growing, but it was discouraging to hear OC Chris Palmer say this week that Cook would continue to play only in passing sets. “I think when you say he is a tight end people think he is an every-down tight end. But he’s not," acknowledged Palmer. Cook defers to blockers Craig Stevens and Daniel Graham on the majority of snaps. His targets and playing time spiked in Week 5 -- before the bye -- only because the Titans were in pass-heavy comeback mode after falling behind the Steelers early. Cook's playmaking ability makes him a viable bye-week crunch option, but he's not a true fantasy starter.
The Titans undoubtedly spent their open date working to fix the running game. The unit currently ranks dead last in rushing yards per game, as well as yards per carry. Whether a remedy is even possible only time will tell, but glass-half-full fantasy owners can view Chris Johnson's first five games and subsequent bye as a substitute for his training camp and preseason. Johnson missed all of August due to a holdout. He's also got a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Here's a look: vs. HOU, vs. IND, vs. CIN, @ CAR, @ ATL, vs. TB, @ BUF, vs. NO, @ IND, vs. JAX. Johnson did average 4.11 YPC with a touchdown in his last two games preceding the bye. It's a healthy step up from Johnson's 2.13 average in Weeks 1-3, and perhaps a sign of things to come.
Score Prediction: Texans 20, Titans 17
Atlanta @ Detroit
Despite GM Thomas Dimitroff's best efforts, the Falcons' coaching staff is insistent on fielding a balanced to run-based offense. While it may not be in the team's best long-term interests to lean so heavily on a declining back like Michael Turner, the coaches' success in doing so during last week's division victory will give Mike Smith's staff even more incentive to stay with the approach. Facing the Panthers' pathetic, 31st-ranked run defense, the Falcons finished with a 1960s-style 35:22 run-to-pass ratio in the convincing 31-17 win. Detroit's vulnerability is run defense, ranking 26th against it and surrendering 5.21 yards per carry. The Lions struggle to hold the point of attack because coach Jim Schwartz's Wide-9 scheme spurns gap control in favor of up-field pass rush. Turner should receive 22-28 carries and have success in this matchup. ... On the flip side, Matt Ryan's fantasy value has taken a hit. We entered this season with high hopes for Ryan in large part because all of Atlanta's offseason personnel moves pointed toward a pass-first, no-huddle heavy offense. The Falcons' no-huddle has been highly productive in spots, but Smith refuses to make it a staple in weekly game plans. The Lions have a top-six pass defense, and their aggressive front four will get plenty of penetration against Atlanta's suspect offensive line. While a potential shootout could buoy Ryan in Week 7, he's just a low-end QB1 in this matchup.
Falcons LT Sam Baker's potential absence due to a bad back should give the coaches even more reservations about letting Ryan drop back. Former NFL Europe journeyman Will Svitek is Baker's backup. ... Roddy White ranks 18th in fantasy wideout scoring, a steep drop from last year's top-three finish. It's plenty to keep trotting out White on a weekly basis, though. Detroit's aggressive defense isn't likely to drape him in double teams, and White's Week 6 stat line was adversely affected by 53 yards and two would-be touchdowns worth of pass interference penalties. Both flags set up one-yard scores for Turner. It goes without saying that those touchdowns would have helped Ryan, too. ... The Lions have allowed four TDs to tight ends in their last four games, which should bode well for Tony Gonzalez. Gonzo leads Atlanta in touchdown catches this year. ... Julio Jones (hamstring) is likely to miss another game, setting up Harry Douglas for a second straight start. The Falcons' rekindled run-happy mentality just doesn't help the outlook for Atlanta's No. 3 receiving option. With Jones inactive for Week 6, Douglas was targeted only four times, securing two for 57 yards. Per Pro Football Focus, Douglas played 40-of-62 snaps, blocking on 17 of them.
Matthew Stafford's on-field performance has slipped since the start of the season, but he's still lighting up the box score. On pace for 40 TDs and 4,610 yards, Stafford is a top-five fantasy quarterback heading into a matchup with Atlanta's 27th-ranked pass defense. The Falcons are stifling the run and allowing 66.7% of the passes thrown against them to be complete, for an average of 7.97 yards per pass play. A throw-oriented game plan would be wise for Lions OC Scott Linehan considering both the matchup and absence of Jahvid Best (concussion). ... Calvin Johnson's touchdown roll has slowed, but he's remained dominant with back-to-back 100-plus yard games. Megatron will give Atlanta matchup fits because he has seven inches and 55 pounds on Falcons top corner Brent Grimes (5'10/181), and the rest of the secondary is a nightmare in coverage. ... Updated Lions targets over the past month: Brandon Pettigrew 41, Megatron 39, Titus Young 21, Nate Burleson 20. As the target leader for a Lions offense that ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts, there's no question that Pettigrew is an every-week fantasy starter.
Burleson showed signs of life with 10 targets in Week 6, scoring his first touchdown of the year. Unfortunately, he's averaging just over two catches for 17 yards in his last four games. While the matchup is right, Burleson simply hasn't been productive enough to be considered a worthwhile WR3. ... With Burleson getting more balls in Week 6, Young took a backseat with one catch for 14 yards. Young is a nice young player, but he's not a fantasy option yet. ... The Lions' running game is a situation to avoid in Week 7 because there's little clarity about who's going to get the football, and Atlanta is stymieing ground attacks. The Falcons rank eighth against the run and are allowing just 3.74 yards per carry to opposing tailbacks. With Best out, candidates for carries in the Detroit backfield are Maurice Morris, Keiland Williams, and newly acquired Eldra Buckley, probably in that order. None of the above will be a confident bet to exceed 15 touches on Sunday. While Morris is expected to start the game, keep in mind that he has only nine carries on the season. Williams has 19.
Score Prediction: Lions 27, Falcons 21
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
This game will be played in London, where weather has previously impacted scoring. As this is being written, however, the Wembley Stadium forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the 60s. The over-under is 43.5 points. ... Matt Forte is on pace for career bests in total yards (2,422), YPC (5.32), and receptions (96), which is saying something for a player who's finished as a top-ten fantasy back in two of the past three years. While a healthy Marion Barber poses a threat for goal-line work, last week's season-high 11 carries don't forecast a committee. Eight of Barber's attempts came late in the fourth quarter with Chicago up 39-10, including five with the backup offense when Caleb Hanie came in for garbage time. Ranked 18th against the run, the Bucs may or may not have top DT Gerald McCoy, who was limited in practice this week with a high ankle sprain. Playing like he wants more money, Forte is a shoo-in top-ten running back. He's the Bears' offensive centerpiece. ... Rookie Dane Sanzenbacher will get one more week to play the slot with Earl Bennett (chest) set to miss this game. Sanzenbacher remains a dicey WR3, playing only 50-55% of the Bears' offensive snaps and averaging just over three catches for 30 yards per game since Bennett went down.
Sparked by hard-hitting, playmaking FS Tanard Jackson's return, the Tampa pass defense came to play in Week 6 against the Saints, intercepting Drew Brees three times in the All-Pro's worst game of the season. It's reason for pause when thinking Jay Cutler might find a groove after his year-best game. The Bears enlisted frequent seven-man protections last Sunday night, holding the Vikings to one sack as Cutler passed for 267 yards, two scores, and no picks. Perhaps the best news for Cutler is that the Bucs rank 25th in sacks and have struggled to apply pressure all year. Cutler is a risky bye-week QB1, but should be used confidently in two-QB formats. ... The Bears re-promoted Roy Williams to the starting lineup versus Minnesota, but used a rotation at split end with Johnny Knox playing 27 snaps and Williams seeing 33. Knox finished with two receptions for 41 yards, while Williams had three grabs for 50. That'd be pretty good production if Knox and Williams were one player. In fantasy football, it's referred to as canceling each other out. ... Devin Hester caught five passes for 91 yards in Week 6, the majority of the production coming on a 48-yard first-quarter scoring bomb. The touchdown was Hester's first on offense this year, and he entered the game averaging just 34.2 receiving yards per week.
In a battle of quarterbacks coming off their best games of the year, Josh Freeman has the tougher matchup. The Bears have a better pass defense ranking than the Bucs, allow a full yard less per pass attempt, have yielded fewer touchdown passes, and generate noticeably more pass rush. Freeman's Week 6 success was largely attributable to New Orleans' inability to bring pressure, as the Saints didn't sack him once, and Freeman had all day to throw on both of his scoring tosses. On the year, Freeman has a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio and ranks 18th in passing yards per game, just ahead of the likes of Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford, and behind Kevin Kolb and Joe Flacco. He's clearly a QB2. ... Owners can point to Mike Williams South's 9.5 target-per-game average over the past month as reason to believe he can turn it around. The opportunities certainly are there; Williams just needs to play better. He's got a league-high six drops over that span. As the Bucs' split end, Williams will spend the heavy majority of this game in LCB Charles Tillman's coverage.
Arrelious Benn continues to lose playing time to Dezmon Briscoe, with the former seeing 54.6% of the snaps and the latter 38.7%. While Benn caught a 65-yard TD pass on a badly blown coverage in Week 6, he's averaging a pedestrian 40.5 yards per game and ranks 39th in fantasy receiver points. He's a WR4/5. ... Freeman needs to show sustained production for his pass catchers to be confident fantasy plays. Kellen Winslow is scoreless on the season with a career-low 9.5 yards-per-catch average. ... Slot receiver Preston Parker only plays 41.6% of the snaps and therefore will never be a recommended fantasy start in this space. For Parker believers, it's worth noting that he's had his best games against zone defenses, and the Bears play a Cover-2 shell. In this system, inside receivers are often allowed to run free over the middle, virtually unguarded. Parker posted 6-98 and 5-70-1 lines against the similar schemes of Minnesota and Indianapolis earlier this year. He remains a low-end WR3 option. ... Earnest Graham will pick up another start with LeGarrette Blount (knee) out, and the 31 1/2-year-old earned an RB2 start by showing lively legs with 131 yards on 19 touches in Week 6. Graham looked very good, frequently pushing the pile and dominating the workload over Kregg Lumpkin. Opposing tailbacks are averaging 5.34 YPC on their last 104 rushing attempts against the Bears, so it's far from a prohibitive matchup.
Score Prediction: Bucs 20, Bears 17
4:05PM ET Games
Pittsburgh @ Arizona
The Steelers' offensive line is finally coming together. LT Max Starks has more than held his own after signing off the street two weeks ago, and LG Chris Kemoeatu (knee) is off the injury report after a three-game absence. It's a big plus for Rashard Mendenhall, who earned AFC Offensive Player of Week 6 honors with a slump-busting 146 yards and a touchdown versus Jacksonville. Mendenhall showed his old explosiveness on a 68-yard first-half run. The Jags entered the game with a top-ten run defense and left ranked 19th. The Cardinals are 20th against the run and tied for the NFL high in rushing scores allowed. ... Isaac Redman returned to a third-down role against the Jaguars, getting only five touches. Jonathan Dwyer was even less of a factor, playing three snaps and rushing twice for eight yards. ... We've previously discussed Arizona's vulnerability to tight ends in this space, a weakness sure to be exacerbated by FS Kerry Rhodes' foot surgery. The Cards have a weak pass rush, which could free up Heath Miller to run more pass routes. On a personal note, I'll be starting Miller in my own league in place of Vernon Davis, who is on a bye.
Fully expected to play through a "slight" hamstring pull, Mike Wallace will give Cards RCB Patrick Peterson fits in the intermediate and deep passing games. While it's too early to call Peterson a bust, early signs aren't promising for the rookie's chances of avoiding a position switch to safety. Per Pro Football Focus, Peterson has allowed 21-of-28 passes to be completed against him (75%) for 287 yards (10.25 YPA), and a pair of touchdowns. Wallace is the No. 3 overall receiver in fantasy, and this might be his most favorable matchup all season. ... Hines Ward confirmed his two-score Week 5 was a mirage with 47 scoreless yards on three catches last Sunday. He's averaging an explosion-less 10.3 yards per catch and isn't a fantasy option. ... Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders continue to rotate in the third receiver role. They'll need either a Wallace or Ward injury to matter. There's little to no separation between the two. ... After a slow start, Ben Roethlisberger has a 6:1 TD-to-INT in his last two games. I'd still use Tim Tebow over Big Ben this week (in case you're deciding between them), but Roethlisberger has a very favorable matchup against a Cardinals pass defense that ranked in the league's bottom dozen even before losing Rhodes.
Arizona's bust of a passing game couldn't have picked a tougher post-bye opponent. The Steelers' shutdown pass defense is allowing a league-low 157.7 yards per game, unthinkable 4.88 yards per attempt, and 56.7 completion rate against. Kevin Kolb is off both the standard- and two-QB league radars this week. ... The lone start-able member of the Cardinals' passing attack is Larry Fitzgerald. In two career matchups with Pittsburgh, Fitz has accumulated 17 catches for 247 yards and two touchdowns. ... Kolb revealed this week that the Cardinals "changed two to three different things that are going to help us" during the bye, one that may involve promoting Early Doucet into the starting lineup, over Andre Roberts. Doucet could be a WR3 candidate if that takes place, but it's not a bankable fantasy situation until we see it on the field. ... Run defense remains an issue for Pittsburgh, and probably will until NT Casey Hampton (shoulder) returns at full strength. With both Hampton and backup Chris Hoke (stinger) out this week, the Steelers are forced to turn to practice squad-type Steve McLendon. At 6-foot-4, 280, McLendon looks more like a tight end than a nose tackle. Over the past three weeks, the Steelers have allowed 359 yards and two TDs on 77 carries (4.66 YPC) to opposing tailbacks. His legs fresh off a bye, Beanie Wells has scored in every game he's played this season and "earned" at least an RB2 start, regardless of matchup.
Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Cardinals 16
Kansas City @ Oakland
Raiders coach Hue Jackson tried to keep us guessing about his Week 7 quarterback, but ESPN's Adam Schefter broke the news on Wednesday: It will be Carson Palmer. With just three practices under Palmer's belt, it's a safe bet that Jackson devised an exceptionally run-dominated game plan. In a potentially momentum-grabbing division game leading into a bye, Jackson can't put his team's fate in the hands of a rushed, untried passer, much as he couldn't trust Kyle Boller to start a game. It would be unfair to expect Palmer to throw more than 18-24 times. ... Oakland wideouts should eventually capitalize on the quarterback upgrade, but need to be on fantasy benches this week. Palmer missed the offseason, camp, and first six games, and hasn't so much as performed a "football activity" in 9 1/2 months. I'd be surprised if any one of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore, or Jacoby Ford exceeded six targets. ... Darren McFadden rediscovered the end zone in Week 6 and ranks third in fantasy scoring among tailbacks. He should anticipate 30 touches against the Chiefs, with Michael Bush quite possibly being saddled up for 8-10 more. There is little doubt that the Raiders will try to run it down the throat of Kansas City's 21st-ranked rush defense.
UPDATE: Schefter and NFL.com are now both reporting that Palmer is NOT expected to start, although "no final decision has been made." The Raiders are certain to go extremely run-heavy against the Chiefs regardless of the quarterback, severely curtailing the appeal of Heyward-Bey, Moore, and Ford in fantasy leagues. Boller is 2-11 in his last 13 NFL starts.
Predicting the Chiefs' Week 7 game plan isn't quite as simple because coach Todd Haley fancies his offense as a potentially successful passing unit. Haley and GM Scott Pioli duped themselves into believing Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin could cover up for OC Charlie Weis' loss, when in actuality it was Weis' schemes -- and not any matter of supporting cast -- that papered over their quarterback's flaws. Matt Cassel's pre-bye success may refuel Haley's unrealistic line of thought. In his last three games, Cassel has completed 56-of-82 throws (68.3%) for 693 yards (8.45 YPA), seven touchdowns, and one interception, although those numbers have come in matchups with the bottom-15 pass defenses of Minnesota and Indianapolis, and a San Diego team that lost top CB Quentin Jammer to early-game injury. The Raiders do rank 28th against the pass, but have a top-ten defense in terms of sacks, yards-per-attempt against, and completion rate allowed (53.4). A pass-first approach would certainly bode well for Dwayne Bowe and Breaston, but it could easily backfire on Cassel and Haley. Cassel isn't a good fantasy option this week, or ever.
Bowe's numbers have taken off with Cassel picking it up. The No. 7 receiver in fantasy points per game, Bowe has four TDs and a six-catch, 101-yard average since Week 1. ... Breaston has put up good-looking box-score stats with 91 yards in Week 4 and two Week 5 scores. Unfortunately, he hasn't exceeded six targets in any game so far. Breaston can make up for it somewhat with efficiency, but simply doesn't project as a heavily targeted receiver. He's a dicey WR3, and not a recommended fantasy start. ... Jackie Battle owners should feel good about playing him against a Raiders run defense serving up 4.92 yards per carry, but they need to be aware of Battle's skill-set limitations. While he runs with power and purpose, the 28-year-old career special teamer has no wiggle to his game and won't catch defenses by surprise going forward. He'll also be removed on the majority of passing downs. Battle is a poor man's LeGarrette Blount. ... His role in decline with no touchdowns on the season, 33-year-old Thomas Jones isn't worth a roster spot in 12-team fantasy leagues. ... Dexter McCluster's amount of touches has dropped in three straight games, and he bottomed out with 18 total yards just before the open date. Like Jones, McCluster hasn't found the end zone all year. He's an RB5 in PPR leagues and off the radar in standard settings.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Chiefs 17
4:15PM ET Games
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 player in fantasy football, leading the NFL in completion rate (70.2%), passing scores (17), touchdown rate (TDs/pass attempts), yards per attempt (9.8), and adjusted YPA (factoring in interceptions). This is the league's best quarterback, and Minnesota's No. 24 pass defense won't slow his roll. ... Top Vikings CB Antoine Winfield is due back from his neck injury this week. Winfield guards the slot when opponents go three-wide, so he'll go to waste on Donald Driver and/or Randall Cobb. ... Greg Jennings has a ridiculous seven-catch, 105-yard average and five touchdowns in his last three meetings with the Vikings. Jennings plays most of his snaps outside and should mostly avoid Winfield's coverage. ... Looking for Jermichael Finley to get back on track? Minnesota's Cover 2 may be just what the doctor ordered. Finley lit up Chicago's similar scheme for 85 yards and three TDs on seven catches in Week 3, and in Finley's last meeting with Minnesota he had six catches for 128 yards and a score. ... Jordy Nelson is the No. 11 fantasy receiver, killing single teams en route to an 11-touchdown pace and 69 yards a game. Expect Nelson to face off with burnable Vikings CB Cedric Griffin for most of this one.
UPDATE: Winfield is listed as doubtful on the final injury report. The Vikings will be without two starters in the secondary, as SS Jamarca Sanford (concussion) is also expected to miss the game. They have little prayer of containing the Green Bay passing game.
James Jones reached pay dirt for a third straight game in Week 6, but saw just one target. Again, Rodgers will continue to throw to Jones if he's open, but he's always a dicey play as Green Bay's No. 4 passing-game option. ... James Starks led the backfield in touches for a fourth time in five games last week, but failed to capitalize on a mouth-watering matchup against St. Louis' last-ranked run defense. With no end in sight to Green Bay's hot-hand committee, it's a situation to avoid in Week 7. The Vikings have a top-five run defense, permitting 3.45 yards per carry. Starks remains the better bet if you're deciding between him and Ryan Grant. The possibility of a blowout win over a team letting a rookie QB make his first start is realistic and even probable, potentially increasing rushing chances. Starks just hasn't played well enough to truly justify using in such a difficult matchup. ... Grant is essentially waiver-wire material at this point. Not only is he getting the ball less than Starks, Grant has averaged 2.69 yards a carry in his last two games, and wouldn't even be assured the feature back role were Starks to get injured. In that scenario, the Packers would likely turn to Alex Green and/or John Kuhn to handle Starks' role. Grant doesn't have much left.
The Vikings will throw Christian Ponder to the wolves in his first start, facing off with the defending Super Bowl champs. The Packers lead the NFC in interceptions and have shut down the last two passing games they've faced. Minnesota's combo of dead-legged wideouts and porous O-Line was a disastrous recipe for a veteran quarterback, and it's difficult to envision a debuting rookie having any more success. While Ponder has athleticism Donovan McNabb no longer does, it's likely the only way this year's biggest draft reach could accumulate substantive fantasy production would come in throw-happy comeback mode. I can't imagine starting Ponder, Michael Jenkins, or even Percy Harvin, who played a neck-wringing 29-of-66 Week 6 snaps (43.9%). ... After Ponder replaced McNabb, he targeted Jenkins four times, Berrian twice, and Harvin twice. So as of yet, there is no evidence that suggests Ponder's insertion will save Minnesota's slot receiver. ... The Packers will surely gear up to stop Adrian Peterson, but that's gone on for years and Peterson hasn't finished outside the top-three fantasy backs in his career. Peterson leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns and carries, and is sure to remain the offensive focal point in Ponder's first start. All Day is averaging 121.5 total yards per game in eight career meetings with the Pack.
Score Prediction: Packers 38, Vikings 13
St. Louis @ Dallas
The Rams' defense ranks 32nd versus the run, but opportunistic offenses prefer attacking it with the pass. It makes sense with St. Louis' top three corners on I.R. A comedy of errors occurred in the injury-ruined secondary on Jordy Nelson's 93-yard Week 6 touchdown catch, as SS Darian Stewart blew a tackle before losing his footing to trip nearby CB Al Harris out of the play. Nelson ran untouched to pay dirt. The Cowboys are without Felix Jones (high ankle sprain), and their best talent was always in the passing game, so a throw-happy approach seems likely. Tony Romo has at least 300 yards in four of his first five games, and among NFC teams only New Orleans has allowed more passing scores than St. Louis. ... Dez Bryant has oddly gone reception-less in 3-of-5 second halves this season, but should have a field day against washed-up Harris in coverage. The former Packer turns 37 in two months. ... Miles Austin played 66-of-74 snaps (89.2%) in his Week 6 return from a hamstring injury. He has an even more favorable matchup than Bryant, squaring off with oft-burned CB Justin King. King plays left cornerback in St. Louis' base defense and moves to the slot on passing downs, so he'll essentially follow Austin around the formation. According to Pro Football Focus, King has allowed five touchdown passes in the last three games.
The above scenario would bode well for fill-in tailback DeMarco Murray, whose college strength was the passing game with 157 receptions at Oklahoma, more than any running back drafted in April. Murray saw extensive action with Dallas' first-team offense when Jones was healthy last week, and received six of the backfield's ensuing seven touches following Felix's injury. All told, Murray amassed 12 touches compared to Tashard Choice's six after Jones went down. While this is going to be a rotation, Murray is Dallas' clear favorite for carries and catches, making him a worthwhile flex against St. Louis' soft front seven. In addition to ranking last in the league in run defense, the Rams are serving up a healthy 4.85 yards per carry. ... Choice did receive three red-zone touches to Murray's two last week, although the former isn't a good bet for more than 7-10 carries and 3-5 receptions in this game. Dating back to Week 14 last year, Choice is averaging a lowly 2.92 yards per rushing attempt. ... Jason Witten ranks second in the NFL in targets per game among tight ends, behind only Jimmy Graham. He's the No. 4 tight end in fantasy football.
The start-ability of every Rams skill player will be heavily impacted by the status of Sam Bradford (high ankle sprain). ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Wednesday that the Rams expect Bradford to play, but multiple national insiders have since either speculated or reported otherwise. St. Louis would simply be unlikely to stay competitive with A.J. Feeley at quarterback. The 34-year-old journeyman has well below league-average talent and no experience in Josh McDaniels' offense aside from practice. Feeley would also be facing a top-five defense. ... The Cowboys rank first against the run, allowing 3.35 YPC and a single rushing score in five games. Steven Jackson needs to be benched if Feeley starts. St. Louis-Dallas is a 4:15ET game, so we may not have a good feel for Bradford's availability until late afternoon Sunday. ... Feeley doesn't have arm power to consistently deliver the football outside the numbers. It's why he's only had previous success in West Coast offenses. Brandon Lloyd goes from high-upside WR2 with Bradford to bottom-barrel WR3 with Feeley. ... The Rams' No. 2 receiver job is up for grabs, and it's a week to wait and see for that situation. Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson are in the mix. Greg Salas is expected to man the slot. ... Lance Kendricks has had an awful start to his rookie season. He's averaging just 35 yards a game and leads all NFL tight ends in drops despite ranking 22nd in targets.
UPDATE: Bradford missed a third straight day of practice, and ESPN's John Clayton is reporting that he's "doubtful" to play against the Cowboys. The Rams, officially, consider Bradford a game-time decision. The smart money still says he won't play.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Rams 16
Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis @ New Orleans
Colts-Saints has Week 7's highest over/under. Start your studs. ... No defense in football fields a smaller cornerback trio than the Colts, with LCB Jacob Lacey (5'10/177), RCB Jerraud Powers (5'10/192), and slot CB Terrence Johnson (5'9/190) comprising the nickel lineup. It comes as little surprise that they've been exposed by big wideouts Jerome Simpson (6-101), Dwayne Bowe (7-128-2), and A.J. Green (5-51-1) over the past two weeks. All three are 6-foot-2 and 190 pounds or better. At full health and a full-time player again, Marques Colston goes 6'4/225 and is coming off his best game of 2011. ... On Sunday, Jimmy Graham will look to break Tony Gonzalez's NFL tight end record for most consecutive 100-yard receiving games. Graham has four in a row and leads his position in fantasy points by a margin that grows by the week. He may quietly be the league's most dominant pass catcher. ... Here are the target and snap counts for Saints wide receivers from Week 6: Colston 11 and 52, Lance Moore 3 and 40, Devery Henderson 2 and 29, and Robert Meachem 2 and 21. It's become a pick-your-poison kind of situation behind Colston.
Updated Saints red-zone touches (season totals): Mark Ingram 20, Darren Sproles 12, Pierre Thomas 7. ... Thomas is averaging 2.07 yards per carry in his last two games. If that continues, he'll eventually be weeded out of the offense in favor of Ingram. Thomas lost a fumble and didn't touch the football in the red zone last week, while previous surprise goal-line vulture Jed Collins didn't carry the ball at all. ... With Thomas struggling and touchdowns in three of his past four games, the winds may be blowing toward Ingram's breakout week. Indy's defense ranks 30th against the run and has allowed seven rushing scores through six games. Over the past three weeks, Chiefs, Bucs, and Bengals backs have racked up 428 yards and two touchdowns on 89 carries (4.81 YPC) against the Colts. This is a favorable matchup for Ingram, and the sudden retirement of C Olin Kreutz helps his cause. Kreutz was getting manhandled on the interior; it looked like he retired last offseason. I’m guessing he was playing at 245 pounds. ... The sample size is admittedly small, but Drew Brees has six TD passes, a 320-yard average, and 70.4 completion rate in two home games this season. Brees is a top-four fantasy quarterback on the year.
Curtis Painter is a sneaky desperation bye-week QB1. He has a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio through three starts, and the Colts' pass protection has improved since Peyton Manning began chipping in with playcalls. Painter has taken one sack in the last two games. The Saints' defense is generating an embarrassing lack of pressure despite blitzing on over 70% of plays, and last week didn't sack Josh Freeman once while serving up his season-best game. In a projected shootout against a defense that's yielded the NFL's most passing TDs, I'd feel good about Painter as a two-QB league starter at worst. ... This is also a good week to use Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon as WR3s. Wayne has the superior matchup against struggling RCB Tracy Porter. Garcon leads Indy in targets by a healthy margin since Painter took over. Here's the distribution from Painter so far: Garcon 27, Wayne 21, Dallas Clark 16, Austin Collie 15. ... Clark finally had a productive game in Week 6 (6-53-1), but may be kept in to block against Saints DC Gregg Williams' blitz-happy defense. Clark just isn't trustworthy. ... The Saints allow the third highest yards-per-carry average against (5.12 YPC) in football, which perhaps is a factor that could help jumpstart sluggish-moving Delone Carter. Carter received 14 touches in Week 6, compared to Donald Brown's seven. Brown scored an 18-yard touchdown and remains the better runner, but isn't getting the rock enough.
UPDATE: Addai made a borderline-shocking return to practice Friday, participating in full. The Indianapolis Star now expects Addai to play against the Saints, killing the fantasy appeal of both Carter and Brown. Addai also isn't a recommended option, despite the game's high-scoring projection. There's no way to tell Addai's game-day role, or whether he'll be effective coming off what was supposed to be a multi-week injury. He's only missed one game.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 23
Monday Night Football
Baltimore @ Jacksonville
"They are the best defense I've seen in years," ESPN's Ron Jaworski said of the Ravens this week. "This year, they've taken it to another level." Jaws went so far as to suggest that the 2011 Ravens defense has approached the level of 2000, when Baltimore won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. The Ravens field a top-seven unit versus both the run and pass, presenting Week 7's biggest mismatch against Jacksonville's 32nd-ranked offense. Baltimore should control this game from start to finish, dominating time of possession and limiting the impact of all Jacksonville skill-position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the only Jaguar worth a serious look, and even he's risky. MJD's passing-game contributions are way down this year, and the Ravens have already kept Arian Foster (15-49-0), Chris Johnson (24-53-0), Rashard Mendenhall (12-45-0), and Shonn Greene (10-23-0) all out of the end zone. If you're keeping score at home, those backs have a combined 2.79 yards-per-carry average against Baltimore.
This game has Week 7's lowest over-under at a paltry 39 points. If Baltimore's shutdown defense wasn't reason enough to sit your Jaguars, the low-scoring projection should be. ... Mike Thomas is the No. 41 fantasy receiver, struggling in his conversion from slot to featured wideout. Thomas' yards-per-catch average has dropped from 2010, he has one touchdown in five games, and his yardage has slipped in three straight weeks. ... Contending with Dallas Clark to be this year's top tight end bust, Marcedes Lewis figures to spend this game on the line blocking Terrell Suggs. Lewis is averaging 23.2 yards per game, hasn't scored yet this season, and has no chemistry with Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert targeted Lewis a team-high eight times in Week 6, but the duo hooked up just twice for 29 yards. ... The Jags brought back Mike Sims-Walker this week after he was cut by the Rams. Over the past two years, Sims-Walker has been exposed as a JAG ("Just a Guy"). He may replace Jason Hill as a starter, but won't save this putrid passing offense. ... Gabbert has done well to avoid turnovers for the most part, but the coaching staff has shown little confidence in him. They were still calling run plays down by two touchdowns against the Steelers last week.
The Jaguars opened the year defending the run well, but this is hardly an imposing matchup for Ray Rice. Over the past three weeks, Jacksonville has surrendered 439 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 97 carries (4.53 YPC). Even if the per-play average were still low, the Jaguars are falling behind early in games, letting opponents take the air out of the ball, and watching them rack up rushing attempts. Rice is the No. 4 overall back in fantasy points per game and an elite RB1. ... Anquan Boldin racked up season bests in receptions (8) and yards (132) last week and figures to give the Jags fits because he works the middle of the field, where Jacksonville's Cover 2 is most vulnerable. Boldin has continued to see significant playing time in the slot this season. ... The Jaguars are allowing an average of over 80 yards per game to tight ends, the most in football. If I'm picking between tight ends in this game, I'm going with Ed Dickson over Marcedes Lewis.
The Jags have a top-eight pass defense, allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and the NFL's third fewest 20-plus yard completions among teams that have played six games. It's a scheme thing; the defense is designed to limit long passing plays. This all adds up to a poor matchup for one-trick pony deep threat Torrey Smith. While Smith is a full-time player and did earn himself some credibility with 84 yards in Week 6, keep in mind that he only saw five targets, catching three, and got 61% of the yardage on a 51-yard bomb against easily-beaten Texans CB Kareem Jackson. Smith isn't going to be a heavily targeted player in the Ravens' offense, so he'll require big plays to maintain respectable production. ... Joe Flacco has topped 225 passing yards in two games so far. While there are worse fantasy options out there, Flacco just doesn't offer a high ceiling on a weekly basis. Hopefully, you find a quarterback with more upside in Sunday's games.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 10