Chris Wesseling

Slingbox's Waiver Wired

Deep League vs. Shallow League

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Even with starting running back falling by the wayside in Week 7, this week's waiver wire outlook is rather grim for owners in 12-, 14, or 16-team leagues. Potential starters such as Ryan Torain (88 percent), DeMarco Murray (82 percent), Knowshon Moreno (82 percent), Montario Hardesty (75 percent), Michael Bush (74 percent), and Maurice Morris(70 percent) are already owned in the vast majority of CBSSports.com leagues.

For shallow leagues in which those backs remain available I'd rank this week's choices as follows:

2. Ryan Torain

7. Roy Helu

10. Maurice Morris

Deep leaguers will have to settle for scraps to get through the bye-week blues.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 8. Full writeups of each player are below.

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Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford
Shaun Hill
Christian Ponder
John Beck
Andy Dalton

Running Backs
Pierre Thomas

Bernard Scott
Roy Helu

Alfonso Smith
Leon Washington
Delone Carter
Kregg Lumpkin
Lance Ball
Javon Ringer
Phillip Tanner

Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Jabar Gaffney
Michael Jenkins
Emmanuel Sanders

Braylon Edwards
Early Doucet
Roy Williams
Dezmon Briscoe

Tight Ends

Evan Moore

Jake Ballard
Visanthe Shiancoe
Brent Celek

Defense/Special Teams
Texans
Seahawks
Saints
Titans

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford, Rams - A slow start and a high-ankle sprain have Bradford unowned in half of all CBSSports.com leagues. Bradford’s status for Week 8 against the Saints is up in the air. The Brandon Lloyd trade and the return to health of Steven Jackson provide reasons for optimism over the next month with two games against a Cardinals defense that allows the fourth-most points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks. At the price of a waiver pickup, Bradford makes for a fine QB2 for the second half of the season.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Shaun Hill, Lions - Matthew Stafford is officially day to day, though PFT reports that he’s in a walking boot and seeking a second opinion on his ankle injury. Until we know with certainty that Stafford will play against a Broncos secondary allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, Hill needs to be added. He averaged 259.8 yards passing and with 16 touchdowns as a low-end QB1 in 10 starts a year ago.

Recommendation: Worth a look in all leagues.

Christian Ponder, Vikings - The numbers may not jump off the stat sheet, but Ponder provided plenty of reason for optimism in his first NFL start. The ball comes out of his hands better than expected, he hangs tough against pressure, seems to have a better handle on the offense than Donovan McNabb, makes aggressive throws down the field, and creates with his feet. If he can get Percy Harvin back healthy to pair with an explosive Adrian Peterson and a steady if unspectacular Michael Jenkins/Visanthe Shiancoe combo, Ponder could approad high-end QB2 status going forward.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

John Beck, Redskins - The Shanahans designed plenty of roll-outs to take advantage of Beck’s mobility, and the result was a respectable 22-of-37 for 279 yards with two total touchdowns -- good for a ninth-place fantasy finish in Week 7. The job gets tougher going forward, though, with No. 1 receiver Santana Moss out 5-7 weeks. Beck looks decent on the Rex Grossman scale, but he’s not going to be more than an inconsistent QB2 option in the coming weeks.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Andy Dalton, Bengals - While the second-rounder has exceed expectations, Dalton’s 15 fantasy points per week leave him in the same tier as Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, and Matt Cassel. He’s a low-end QB2 heading into matchups against Seattle (17th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs), Tennessee (19th-most) and Pittsburgh (28th-most).

Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.

Cut Bait: Charlie Whitehurst

For shallow leagues in which those backs remain available I'd rank this week's choices as follows:

2. Ryan Torain

7. Roy Helu

10. Maurice Morris

Deep leaguers will have to settle for scraps to get through the bye-week blues.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 8. Full writeups of each player are below.

Quarterbacks
Sam Bradford
Shaun Hill
Christian Ponder
John Beck
Andy Dalton

Running Backs
Pierre Thomas

Bernard Scott
Roy Helu

Alfonso Smith
Leon Washington
Delone Carter
Kregg Lumpkin
Lance Ball
Javon Ringer
Phillip Tanner

Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Jabar Gaffney
Michael Jenkins
Emmanuel Sanders

Braylon Edwards
Early Doucet
Roy Williams
Dezmon Briscoe

Tight Ends

Evan Moore

Bernard Scott, Bengals - After a month straight of recommending Scott, he finally gets his shot at the Bengals' starting job for one week with Cedric Benson suspended. The coaching staff had been slowly increasing Scott's workload heading into the bye week to get him prepared for a heavier does of carries. Scott averaged 18.7 touches and 97.3 yards in three games Benson missed back in 2009. He'll have tougher sledding this time around against a Seattle defense allowing the 21st-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Roy Helu, Redskins - Ryan Torain is expected to ascend to the early-down role following Tim Hightower’s season-ending ACL injury, but this situation is as fluid as it gets. Mike Shanahan’s previously unwavering faith in Torain has shown cracks and fissures of late. More importantly, Torain’s checkered injury history suggest a heavy workload will lead to a big opportunity for the more explosive Helu sooner rather than later.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Alfonso Smith, Cardinals - The Cardinals have yet to confirm or deny a reported 1-2 week recovery timetable for Beanie Wells (knee). It’s problematic for fantasy owners because the Week 8 matchup against a revenge-minded Ravens defense is prohibitive while a Week 9 matchup against the Rams is a fantasy dream. For as long as Wells is out, Smith is expected to be the lead back in a committee withLaRod Stephens-Howling and Chester Taylor. Smith is worth picking up purely for the chance of a fantasy start in Week 9.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Leon Washington, Seahawks - Washington surprisingly drew the start in place of Marshawn Lynch (back) last week and outperformed Justin Forsett on 11 touches. If Lynch ends up sitting out again versus the Bengals, Washington could be a decent flex option in PPR formats. He’s not a great bet for more than 12-14 touches or a trip to paydirt in what should be a low-scoring game.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.

Delone Carter, Colts - The Colts have yet to update Joseph Addai’s (hamstring) status after he left last week’s game as a precaution. Carter finally showed a previously missing elusiveness against the Saints on his way to 89 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. He’s only a flex option at Tennessee if Addai ends up sitting out.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers - Lumpkin was brutal in relief of Earnest Graham last week, averaging 1.9 yards on eight carries and 6.2 yards on six receptions. LeGarrette Blount’s (knee) status is up in the air for Week 9 following the bye, and there’s a good chance the Bucs will bring in a street free agent regardless. In the meantime, Lumpkin is the only tailback on the roster. Hold off a week if possible.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.

Javon Ringer, Titans - For the second time in the past five games, the Titans could only move the ball on the ground once Ringer entered as a change-of-pace to a sluggish Chris Johnson. For now, Tennessee remains committed to its $55 million back. That’s subject to change if Ringer continues to function as the more explosive and effective back. He’s purely roster stash material in the mean time.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a roster stash.

Phillip Tanner, Cowboys - The undrafted training camp star out of Middle Tennessee State gained 5.7 yards per on six late-game carries in relief of DeMarco Murray. If he had drawn the start instead of Murray, it would have been Tanner gashing the Rams defense in a breakout game. With Tashard Choice nursing a shoulder injury, Tanner should ascend to No. 2 on the depth chart against the Eagles’ 23-rd ranked run defense.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Lance Ball, Broncos - Ball saw six touches to Knowshon Moreno’s nine after Willis McGahee (hand) went down last week. That split is a good guideline for Week 8 against the Lions, with Moreno getting the start and playing on passing downs. Ball’s primary issues are his mediocre talent level and Tim Tebow’s presence as the goal-line back. Ball is only an option in deeper leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Chris Ivory, Keiland Williams, Toby Gerhart, Justin Forsett, Taiwan Jones, Marion Barber, Chris Ogbonnaya, Joe McKnight, Chad Spann, Mossis Madu, Tiki Barber

Ivory could be active this week if Mark Ingram ends up sitting out with a heel injury. … Williams’ Week 8 role hinges on Jahvid Best’s (concussion). He’s not a great bet for more than 8-10 carries regardless. … Gerhart should be on the radar with Adrian Peterson nursing a minor ankle injury this week. … Forsett could see a few looks if Marshawn Lynch (back) sits out, but he’s averaging just 2.5 yards on 22 carries. … Barber is worth a look in TD-heavy leagues. … Spann and Madu are candidates to be promoted form the Bucs’ practice squad during the bye week. … Tiki is still a longshot to be signed in Tampa.

Cut Bait: Earnest Graham, Thomas Jones

Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - Antonio Brown, Jabar Gaffney, and Michael Jenkins are safer Week 8 plays, but Thomas boasts the most upside over the long haul of any receiver on this list. Making an incredible return from Achilles’ surgery, Thomas was Tim Tebow’s favorite receiver from snap one last week, finding the end zone on a team-high 10 targets. It should surprise no one if the ultra-talented but brittle Thomas leapfrogs Eric Decker as Denver’s most valuable fantasy receiver the rest of the way.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Antonio Brown, Steelers - Brown has yet to find the end zone, but he’s coming off 102 yards on a team-leading seven catches and 10 targets against the Cardinals. Much like the Packers with Donald Driver’s role dwindling, the Steelers offense is at its most explosive with Brown and Emmanuel Sanders in three-wide sets with Hines Ward on the bench. Now that Ward is battling an ankle sprain, Brown and Mike Wallace will be the best bets for targets in what has the look of a high-scoring game against the Patriots in Week 8.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Jabar Gaffney, Redskins - Gaffney and Fred Davis will be the primary beneficiaries of Santana Moss’ hand injury. Gaffney will see a substantial spike targets, but he’s not good enough to separate against top corners or make plays after the catch. He’s still more valuable in PPR formats, but now worth a look in standard-scoring leagues during the bye-week crunch. While the upside is low, Gaffney may be the safest Week 8 play on this list in a matchup with the Bills.

Recommendation: Worth a look as an injury replacement.

Michael Jenkins, Vikings - Bernard Berrian isn’t coming back, and Percy Harvin (ribs) could be held out this week with the bye on the horizon. Someone has to catch Christian Ponder’s passes against the Panthers, and Jenkins drew a team-leading eight targets in Week 7. That 71-yard play-action completion on the game’s first snap was a bit of fluke, but Jenkins has value as fantasy’s No. 25 receiver through seven weeks. Just be sure to note that he’s been held under 50 yards in 5-of-7 games. Consistency will remain elusive.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers - Sanders and Antonio Brown have played roughly the same number of snaps over the past month, but Sanders was getting the call mostly on rushing downs. That will change this week if Hines Ward’s ankle sprain keeps him out against the Patriots. Sanderson would be worth a look as a borderline WR3 in a potential shootout.

Recommendation: Worth a look as an injury replacement.

Braylon Edwards, 49ers - The Niners have been targeting Week 8 for Edwards’ return from knee surgery, and coach Jim Harbaugh expects him to practice on Tuesday. With Josh Morgan out for the season, Edwards should have little problem bypassing Ted Ginn for the starting job opposite Michael Crabtree. While he’s not a recommended fantasy play in his first week back, Edwards is worthy of a flier for receiver-needy owners.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in 12-team leagues.

Early Doucet, Cardinals - Andre Roberts is clinging to the starting job opposite Larry Fitzgerald while Doucet has racked up five or more receptions in three of the past four games against single coverage. The Week 8 matchup with the Ravens is foreboding, but Doucet gets the fantasy friendly Rams in Week 9.

Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.

Roy Williams, Bears - Williams finally found the end zone for the first time in 15 games after regaining his starting job the week before. His four catches and 57 yards were also season highs, though canceled out by an ugly drop and subpar athleticism. I’ve resolved never to carry Williams on a roster again, but he’s worth a desperation look in larger leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Dezmon Briscoe, Buccaneers - Who can figure out the Buccaneers’ receivers opposite Mike Williams? Arrelious Benn was held catchless in Week 7 after an 83-yard performance in Week 6. According to Pro Football Focus, the majority of Benn’s snaps come when the Bucs are playing with a lead and need a blocking receiver while Briscoe enters when the team is playing catchup. Briscoe’s 10 Week 7 targets doubled his season total, so this could easily be a one-game aberration.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Brandon Gibson, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Earl Bennett, Jeremy Kerley, Devin Aromashodu

Gibson could regain fantasy relevance with Danario Alexander battling a hamstring injury. … Owens and Moss are long shots for deep leagues. … Bennett will likely return to the slot job in Week 9. … Kerley is an upgrade on Derrick Mason, which isn’t saying much. … Aromashodu led the Vikings receivers in snaps in Week 7.

Cut Bait: Santana Moss, Robert Meachem, Mohamed Massaquoi, Dane Sanzenbacher, Arrelious Benn, Titus Young, Harry Douglas

Moss is out 5-7 weeks after surgery on his hand. There’s no guarantee that he’ll even return for the fantasy playoffs. … Meachem has fallen off the radar with Marques Colston’s return. … Already behind Greg Little, Massaquoi was concussed last week. … Sanzenbacher is entering the bye week with Earl Bennett set to return in Week 9. … Benn is losing snaps to Dez Briscoe. … Young’s role is actually decreasing of late. … Douglas will head back to the No. 3 role with Julio Jones set to return after the bye.

Tight Ends

Evan Moore, Browns - A highly athletic red-zone specialist at 6’6/250 with excellent hands, Moore has a shot at a substantial Week 8 role against the 49ers with Ben Watson coming off a concussion. If Watson ends up missing this week’s game, Moore is a sneaky borderline TE1 option as Colt McCoy’s top end-zone target.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week fill-in.

Jake Ballard, Giants - Ballard took a three-game average of 10.2 fantasy points into the bye week on the heels of 72- and 81-yard performances. The matchup is right this week, too. Ballard hosts a Dolphins defense allowing 11.0 fantasy points per game, the second-most in the league.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings - Christian Ponder breathed life into the Vikings offense, and Shiancoe shared the team lead in targets with eight on his way to 45 yards for the second straight game. Ponder is looking Shiancoe’s way at the goal-line, too.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Brent Celek, Eagles - This one is for desperate deep-league owners only. Coming off his best game of the season with 42 yards and a touchdown, Celek draws a Cowboys defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Next week, he faces a Bears defense surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation matchup play.

Defense/Special Teams

Texans - Houston is a top-10 fantasy and real-life defense playing at home against a Jaguars offense ranked 31st in the league and guided by the least effective passer in the NFL. Matchups don’t much better than this one.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Seahawks - Most owners will go for the Bengals in this matchup, but Seattle plays much better at home than on the road. In many formats the Seahawks D/ST has reached double figures in three of the past four weeks. It helps that the Bengals will be without workhorse Cedric Benson for this week’s game.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Saints - Dallas’ defense held the A.J. Feeley Rams to just seven points, 195 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards in Week 7. Coach Steve Spagnuola was noncommittal on Sam Bradford’s (ankle) status Monday, there’s still a chance Feeley will start a second straight game.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Titans - This Week 8 matchup features two teams looking to bounce back from embarrassing blowout defeats. The Titans are the home team playing against a Colts squad that laid down at New Orleans last week.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation matchup play.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.

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Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.
Email :Chris Wesseling

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