Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Target Watch: Week 8

Wednesday, October 26, 2011


Seattle Seahawks

Ben Obomanu: 6-6-2-4-10-BYE-2 (30), Doug Baldwin: 6-2-4-6-9-BYE-3 (30), Sidney Rice: dnp-dnp-10-6-5-BYE-5 (26), Mike Williams: 5-3-1-5-dnp-BYE-4 (18), Justin Forsett: 5-3-3-4-1-BYE-1 (17), Marshawn Lynch: 2-2-3-4-6-BYE-dnp (17), Anthony McCoy: 3-3-0-0-6-BYE-4 (16), Zach Miller: 4-2-3-6-0-BYE-dnp (15), Golden Tate: 5-2-3-0-3-BYE-1 (14), Leon Washington: 2-1-1-1-1-BYE-4 (10)

The Seahawks target numbers are a hot mediocre mess. Whenever we think a player is going to step up or at least show some consistency they don't. The Seahawks are only averaging 182 yards passing and one receiving touchdown a game and that doesn't lend itself to many fantasy points for anyone. And now that Marshawn Lynch is hurting that clouds that backfield as well. Run for Mt. Rainier and find a log cabin to hole up in to ride this offense out.


San Francisco 49ers

Michael Crabtree: 2-dnp-6-9-5-15-BYE (37), Vernon Davis: 6-2-9-6-3-2-BYE (28), Josh Morgan: 2-5-4-3-6-dnp-BYE (20), Frank Gore: 4-3-2-2-2-5-BYE (18), Delanie Walker: 1-4-2-3-3-3-BYE (16), Ted Ginn: 0-7-0-1-0-5-BYE (13), Braylon Edwards: 5-2-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-BYE (7), Kendall Hunter: 0-0-2-5-0-0-BYE (7)

I mentioned that Crabtree was crab walking his way up the target tree and then he gets a whole slew of targets against the Lions. Of course the running game is what moves the 49er offense, but 15 targets would get my aunt Betty on PPR radars.

Vernon Davis only had two targets while he was helping fight off the Lions pass rush. He is susceptible to these types of games this season and looking at the effectiveness of the opponent's pass rush may be worthwhile in analyzing his weekly matchup.


St. Louis Rams

Brandon Lloyd: 11-dnp-7-11-BYE-dnp-12 (45), Danario Alexander: dnp-7-8-8-BYE-10-6 (39), Brandon Gibson: 5-8-7-1-BYE-10-dnp (31), Lance Kendricks: 5-4-3 -9-BYE-6-dnp (27), Greg Salas: 3-8-dnp-dnp-BYE-10-2 (23), Cadillac Williams: 10-5-2-dnp-BYE-3-1 (21), Steven Jackson: 0-dnp-1-8-BYE-5-5 (19), Michael Hoomanawanui: dnp-2-3-1-BYE-0-3 (9)

Of course Lloyd’s numbers above here are from the Denver doldrums, but that 12 is a great number of targets to start his career as a Ram. A.J. Feeley was the one throwing him the ball, but in reality it was Josh McDaniels, well, not reality, but you know. McDaniels knows Lloyd and knows he is better than any receiver they have and no matter who is at quarterback, Lloyd will be the go to guy. I don't completely trust this Rams offense to click enough to give Lloyd WR1 numbers out of the gate, but his ceiling got a lot higher in St. Louis.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Williams: 10-4-9-8-9-13-11 (64), Kellen Winslow: 8-8-4-6-9-10-12 (57), Preston Parker: 6-7-1-7-3-5-6 (35), Earnest Graham: 9-5-8-6-0-2-1 (31), Arrelious Benn: 7-2-4-1-4-6-1 (25), Dezmon Briscoe: 2-4-0-0-2-2-10 (20), Kregg Lumpkin: 1-0-1-3-1-0-8 (14), Luke Stocker: 1-1-2-4-dnp-dnp-3 (11)

Mike Williams is the fifth most targeted player in all of the NFL and leads his team in red zone targets. So why is he 52nd in fantasy points and tied for second in fantasy points for Tampa Bay wide receivers? That is a good question. All I can tell you is they haven't given up on him in the slightest. And he did have a decent game with 6 receptions for 75 yards in London. The touchdowns will come.

Earnest Graham is done for the year and Kregg Lumpkin is clearly a third down back at best. They are hoping LeGarrette Blount will be back after the bye. I would be too.


Tennessee Titans

Nate Washington: 7-11-9-4-8-BYE-3 (42), Chris Johnson: 7-5-7-2-3-BYE-6 (30), Lavelle Hawkins: 0-4-5-4-8-BYE-7 (28), Damian Williams: 2-dnp-3-4-11-BYE-4 (24), Jared Cook: 2-3-2-6-9-BYE-2 (24), Javon Ringer: dnp-2-2-0-6-BYE-1 (11), Craig Stevens: 3-1-1-1-0-BYE-1 (7)

The Titans are going to be an erratic team at best until they get Chris Johnson going and it's starting to get worrisome that he ever will get it going. "It" being any semblance of speed, power, lateral moves, etc...

The passing game misses Kenny Britt, but they trudge on. Nate Washington is still the No. 1 receiver with 49 snaps, but he only had three targets! Donnie Avery, Lavelle Hawkins and Jared Cook split time after Damian Williams left the game with a possible concussion. Cook isn't able to block effectively so Craig Stevens and Daniel Graham see a lot of time on run and play action which hurts Cook's upside which is evident in his two targets. He got into the end zone, but he needs more targets to be fantasy relevant week to week.


Washington Redskins

Jabar Gaffney: 7-8-6-4-BYE-10-8 (43), Santana Moss: 8-9-8-10-BYE-6-2 (43), Fred Davis: 6-7-3-6-BYE-11-8 (41), Anthony Armstrong: 6-4-0-dnp-BYE-dnp-4 (14), Roy Helu: 0-4-2-0-BYE-4-2 (12), Terrence Austin: 0-dnp-4-0-BYE-1-6 (11)

The Redskins lost Santana Moss and Tim Hightower, but their replacements aren't exactly clear cut. Jabar Gaffney and Fred Davis had eight targets a piece, but Davis did more with those targets and now with Chris Cooley on IR he should benefit the most. Gaffney will see an uptick in looks, but Anthony Armstrong, Terrence Austin (who had 6 targets) and Leonard Hankerson will all see enough work to hurt each other’s value to a degree.

With Hightower gone the workload will be split between Ryan Torain and Roy Helu. Like many committee backfields their value will be dependent on the game situation. Torain will most likely be the early down/goal line back while Helu will be the third down back. Of course that can change at any second with Shanahan at the helm, but that's the way it sorted out after Hightower went down.


Target Leaders

Before we move on let's take a quick look at the league leaders for average targets per start at each position for the last 4 weeks shall we? I'll present these sans analysis and let you bask in their statistical glow.


WIDE RECEIVERS
Wes Welker (10.7), Julio Jones (10.5), Mike Williams (10.2), Brandon Marshall (10), Dwayne Bowe (10), Demaryius Thomas (10 - 1 game), Calvin Johnson (9.8), Darrius Heyward-Bey (9.8), Larry Fitzgerald (9.7), Michael Crabtree (9.7)

TIGHT ENDS
Aaron Hernandez (11.5), Jimmy Graham (11), Kellen Winslow (9.2), Brandon Pettigrew (8.5), Fred Davis (8.3), Visanthe Shiancoe (7.2), Tony Gonzalez (7), Ben Watson (7), Antonio Gates (7), Jermaine Gresham (6.7), Jason Witten (6.7), Ed Dickson (6.7)

RUNNING BACKS
Darren Sproles (7.8), Arian Foster (7), Ray Rice (6.7), LeSean McCoy (6.7), Fred Jackson (6.7), Jahvid Best (6.7), Steven Jackson (6), Matt Forte (5.8), Felix Jones (5.5), Marshawn Lynch (5)



Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham



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