4:05PM ET Games
Detroit @ Denver
Tim Tebow finished his first start of 2011 with 23 standard-league fantasy points, 17 coming after the 5:23 mark in the fourth quarter. For the initial 54:37, the Broncos employed an extremely conservative run-oriented offense, generating scant ball movement with a 30:14 run-to-pass ratio. Shotgun-spread sets and an aggressive attack ensued in comeback mode, and Tebow capitalized to finish fifth among quarterbacks in Week 7 fantasy scoring. Just think how many points Tebow would have scored if the Broncos tailored the scheme to his talent for four quarters. Only time will tell whether old-school coach John Fox is philosophically capable of buying in, but the run-twice-and-pass-on-third-down approach is destined for failure because Tebow's elongated throwing motion makes him a sitting duck in a telegraphed game plan. It'd be an especially bad idea against Detroit's ferocious front four. Denver can be competitive and Tebow can flirt with top-five quarterback stats if the coaching staff lets it happen. ... The Broncos started Eric Decker and Eddie Royal in Week 7, but wound up using Demaryius Thomas on 45-of-77 snaps. Thomas was Tebow's favorite option, seeing a club-high 10 targets while Royal and TE Daniel Fells tied for second with four. If the Broncos do follow through with a spread-type offense (as they should), Thomas will be an every-down player. At this point, my money would be on Demaryius leading the Broncos in receiving the rest of the way.
Willis McGahee underwent surgery Tuesday to repair the fourth metacarpal in his right hand, a procedure the Denver Post expects to cost him at least two weeks. (Agent-driven reports insist the timetable is 1-2 weeks, but that is overly optimistic.) After McGahee went down, Moreno received five of the backfield's next seven touches compared to Lance Ball's two. Ball did close out the game with three straight overtime carries to set up Matt Prater's game-winning field goal, but Moreno projects as the Broncos' lead back. The Lions rank 28th in run defense and allow 5.03 yards per rushing attempt, so this is a favorable matchup to plug-and-play Moreno as an RB2. He won't struggle to flirt with 18 touches if the Broncos approach this game like they did last week's. ... Fox's staff seems to prefer Ball in short-yardage situations, suggesting he may get the goal-line carries if Tebow doesn't just punch it in himself. It's still hard to imagine considering Ball any more than a desperate flex option in this game. Moreno is the Broncos' fantasy running back to own.
The Lions started Maurice Morris against Atlanta last week, using him on 39-of-58 snaps (67.2%). Keiland Williams rotated in to start the second quarter, however, and the two finished with the same amount of carries (9). Williams played 18 snaps (31.0%). While Morris remains the lead back and favorite for all passing-down work, the backfield appears set up for a committee until Jahvid Best (concussion) returns. Denver's run defense has been better than given credit this year, allowing just 3.86 yards per rushing attempt. Neither Morris nor Williams can be considered better than a low-end flex play. ... Virtually all observers at Lions practice this week had positive things to say about Matthew Stafford, who moved around well on his supposedly injured ankle and will start Sunday. Based on all the information I've gathered, I'd feel good about considering Stafford close to or at 100 percent. I also feel very good about his matchup. RE Elvis Dumervil (ankle) is not expected to play Sunday, and Denver is brutal in pass coverage aside from Champ Bailey. Only the Colts are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a higher passer rating on the season. Always a safe bet for two touchdown passes, Stafford remains a locked-and-loaded QB1.
Brandon Pettigrew had a down week (4-31) as Detroit's passing game stalled against the Falcons, but he still finished second on the Lions in targets and has played well enough to stay in lineups as a proven fantasy starter. Denver is juggling its lineup at safety, and Pettigrew could take over as the Lions' featured passing-game option if Bailey shuts down Calvin Johnson. ... The odds of that happening aren't good, of course. While Bailey did well to prevent Brandon Marshall from getting behind him last week, Megatron is an entirely different beast. You can't sit the No. 1 fantasy receiver regardless of matchup. ... Nate Burleson is on pace for 51 receptions and 508 yards. At this point, Burleson would need a Megatron or Pettigrew injury to be start-able in any given week. ... Titus Young hasn't exceeded 14 yards since Week 4, and his weekly yardage totals have been on a downslope since Week 2, bottoming out with a catch-less game against Atlanta. Like Burleson, Young would need something drastic to occur to be a fantasy starter.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Broncos 21
Washington @ Buffalo
This game will be played in the friendly confines of Toronto's Rogers Centre, formerly known as SkyDome. Rogers Centre has a retractable roof, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will air it out in favorable conditions regardless of whether the stadium is domed. In last year's Toronto game, Fitzpatrick threw a season-high 51 times for 299 yards against a Bears defense that at the time was among the NFL's best. That doesn't make Fitzpatrick a desirable fantasy option, of course, but it's good to know his popgun arm won't be inhibited by weather. ... Deep threat Donald Jones (ankle) won't return this week, leaving David Nelson and Stevie Johnson as the best bets for targets on the Bills' side. DeAngelo Hall figures to be assigned to Johnson, which certainly isn't a prohibitive matchup for the Bills' No. 1 receiver. It's interesting to note that Nelson, when lined up out wide, will have an eight-inch, 23-pound size advantage on Redskins No. 2 CB Josh Wilson. Nelson has also continued to see action in the slot, where he'd face off with struggling slot CB Kevin Barnes.
When Nelson is outside, C.J. Spiller, Naaman Roosevelt, and Brad Smith will be candidates for inside receiver snaps. It's hard to imagine investing in the cluttered situation for fantasy purposes. Spiller is the best bet, but he's strictly a desperation option. ... The Redskins have a top-11 pass defense because OLBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan bring consistent pressure, and Hall and Wilson are effective outside corners. Run defense has been more of an issue for Washington, which is generously surrendering 4.61 yards per rushing attempt and an average of one rushing touchdown per game. The Panthers piled up 175 yards and two scores on 37 carries (4.73 YPC) against the Redskins last week. Fred Jackson is probably the favorite for fantasy MVP as we approach the season's halfway point and should continue to confidently be started as an RB1.
If a troublesome quarterback situation didn't already, top wide receiver Santana Moss' broken left hand needs to enlighten Redskins coaches that a run-heavy offense is their best, and perhaps only option going forward. Historically pass-happy playcaller Kyle Shanahan seemed to buy into that notion last week by running the ball on 16 of Washington's initial 24 offensive snaps. The game plan was scrapped when Carolina took an early third-quarter lead, and after Tim Hightower tore his ACL. Be it with "likely" starter Ryan Torain or Week 8 super sleeper Roy Helu, Shanahan must pick up where he left off in last week's first half, directly attacking a Bills defense that ranks 30th against the run and will be without Pro Bowl NT Kyle Williams (foot). Buffalo is serving up 5.12 yards per carry and has allowed eight rushing TDs in six games. Oh, who's going to get the carries? Your guess is as good as mine. I don't own Torain, so I'll be taking my chances with Helu in a flex spot. ... John Beck showed some moxie in his first start since 2007, with an ability to move the offense and pick up first downs. Without Moss, however, Beck's job just got much tougher. Even as bad as Buffalo's pass defense ranking may appear, Beck is only a low-end QB2.
Beck's target distribution through two appearances: Fred Davis 12, Jabar Gaffney 12, Terrence Austin 7, Anthony Armstrong 4, Niles Paul 2. ... Beck and Davis showed an excellent rapport with six connections for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 7, and Davis will remain the Redskins' top bet for receiving production the rest of the way. In the Bills' past four games, they've allowed three touchdowns to tight ends and a five-catch, 71.5-yard weekly average. It's another nice matchup for Davis. ... Gaffney is a 31-year-old possession receiver, but he'll see enough targets and play with enough efficiency to be worth WR3 consideration in PPR leagues. He's certainly not a terrible option, as may have been the case were Moss healthy. ... Paul, Armstrong, and Austin are now vying for snaps and looks from Beck in what may be a committee approach at No. 2 receiver. The Skins could also insert rookie Leonard Hankerson at any moment. Avoid the situation in fantasy.
Score Prediction: Redskins 20, Bills 17
4:15PM ET Games
New England @ Pittsburgh
Pats-Steelers has Week 8's highest over/under (52), which should comfort Tom Brady owners as he takes on Pittsburgh's No. 1 pass defense. Brady has historically pummeled the Steelers. In the sides' last two meetings, he's completed 62-of-89 throws (69.7%) for 749 yards (8.42 YPA), seven TDs, and no INTs. With Aaron Rodgers on bye, I'd consider only Drew Brees, Michael Vick, and Cam Newton better Week 8 QBs. ... The Pats typically attack Pittsburgh with a wide-open spread, picking apart the most favorable defensive back-pass catcher matchups Brady can find. Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are the two biggest matchup nightmares on New England's roster. Hernandez carries risk, though. He only played 11 snaps in last year's Steelers game, afterward revealing it was part of a game plan that went heavy on two-tight end sets with superior blockers Alge Crumpler and Rob Gronkowski playing the vast majority of downs. Crump and Gronk were utilized to block LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison on the edges. Hernandez didn't catch a pass, while Gronkowski had three touchdowns. Of course, Bill Belichick can't be counted on to repeat a game plan, and Harrison (eye) isn't playing this time around. Both Hernandez and Gronkowski are elite TE1s. While the Steelers have blanketed outside receivers, they've allowed some of the biggest games of the season for Ed Dickson (5-59-1), Owen Daniels (5-69-1), and Jared Cook (4-59).
Steelers RCB Ike Taylor has been terrific all year but doesn't cover the slot, so don't look for him to be on Welker much. Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco -- assuming the latter even plays -- are more realistic candidates for Taylor's coverage. ... Keep in mind that New England posted a 43:24 pass-to-run ratio in last year's meeting with Pittsburgh, but still saw fit to give BenJarvus Green-Ellis 22 touches, which he took for 123 total yards. You want to play goal-line backs in games with high-scoring projections, and Law Firm remains the Patriots' best bet for carries in scoring position. ... Danny Woodhead and rookies Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are off the fantasy radar this week. Ridley and Vereen don't get enough playing time, and Woodhead hasn't exceeded nine touches since the opener. He got the ball six times against Pittsburgh last season.
On paper, everything sets up well for Ben Roethlisberger in this game. New England is last in the league in pass defense, and Big Ben is red hot with a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio over the last three weeks. He's settling in an every-week QB1. ... Rashard Mendenhall took a backseat in the Week 7 game plan as the Steelers relied on a spread offense to attack Arizona's awful pass defense. It'd make sense for Pittsburgh to take a similar approach this week. Mendenhall owners need to be aware that playcaller Bruce Arians is a creative, forward-thinking offensive mind, and averse to running into a brick wall when an opponent is more vulnerable elsewhere. It won't always end well for Mendenhall. In last year's game against the Patriots, Mendenhall finished with 11 carries for 50 scoreless yards and two receptions. Mendenhall needs to be trotted out in fantasy leagues every single week, but his usage and production may be inconsistent because of game flow and plan.
You'd have to think Arians knows it because it's so evident on game tape: The Steelers' offense is exponentially more explosive when Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders make up the three-receiver set. With Hines Ward nursing an ankle sprain on the sideline last week, 60 Minutes (3-118-1), Brown (7-102), and Sanders (5-46-1) unloaded on Arizona in a fast-paced, up-tempo aerial assault. Ward promises to be available against the Pats, but he may not play much. Brown and Sanders should both be thought of as desirable bye-week WR3s, and I'd be hard pressed to not rank Wallace as this week's top fantasy receiver play. The Patriots are allowing an average of 6.2 completions of 20-plus yards per game. The Cards just so happen to be second in that statistic, but with a distant 5.0 average of 20-yard pass plays surrendered. ... Heath Miller was recommended in this space last week because of a favorable matchup, but this one doesn't stack up as well. New England is much stronger at safety than Arizona, and the Patriots have held Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Dustin Keller to an average of 18.3 yards this season.
UPDATE: NFL Network's Albert Breer was in Pittsburgh all week, covering the events leading up to this game. Breer reported Friday night that Ward is "highly unlikely" to play against the Patriots. Sanders and Wallace will be the starting receivers with Brown playing in all three-wide sets.
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Steelers 23
1:00PM ET Games
New Orleans @ St. Louis
The Saints are destined for rushing success against a St. Louis defense that ranks 32nd versus the run, permits a league-most 5.49 yards per carry, and was just gashed for what I'd wager goes down as DeMarco Murray's career-best game. The notion is reinforced by Brian De La Puente's stark upgrade at center. Whereas Saints backs managed 247 yards and one rushing touchdown on 67 carries (3.69 average) with now-retired Olin Kreutz on the field, the stats leap to 595 yards and six scores on 112 attempts (5.31 YPC) with De La Puente playing. ... As noted by Chris Wesseling this week, Murray gashed St. Louis for well over 50% of his Week 7 yardage on pitch plays and draws. The Rams are old and slow at outside linebacker and safety, and were always going to be vulnerable to runs that get backs in space. Darren Sproles is the Saints' preferred option on these playcalls. Sproles is averaging over 88 total yards a week with five touchdowns in seven games. In a matchup perfectly suited for Sproles, he's a top-15 running back play and legit RB1 in PPR. ... With Mark Ingram (heel) out for Week 8, both Sproles and Pierre Thomas project to receive boosts in touches and snaps played, because Chris Ivory isn't going to be ready for much work after just three days of practice coming off the PUP list. Sproles routinely gets the ball more in the red zone than Thomas, but the latter is still a must-start RB2 in this matchup.
Jimmy Graham has either a TD or 100 yards in 6-of-7 games. The hapless Rams won't stop him. ... Drew Brees is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback, leading the league in passing yards and attempts while completing a career-high 70.9% of his throws. With Aaron Rodgers on a bye and Tom Brady at Pittsburgh, there isn't a better Week 8 QB play than Brees. ... Breaking his collarbone in Week 1 may have been a veiled blessing for Marques Colston because it allowed his surgically repaired knee to heal completely. Colston struggled with the knee in camp. He's been unstoppable since being re-promoted to a full-time player, hauling in 14 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Colston is fearless in traffic. Let's not forget that this is his contract year. ... With Colston, Graham, and Sproles dominating targets, the Saints' other wideouts have become totally unreliable fantasy commodities. Colston, Graham, and Sproles have been the intended receivers on 53-of-80 (66.3%) Brees throws over the past two games. Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, and Devery Henderson have 15 combined targets (18.8%) over that span, none topping four in either week. Their playing time has also been incredibly inconsistent and unpredictable. It'd be a complete roll of the dice to use any of the three this week, even with the great matchup.
While it's not hard to imagine the Saints grabbing a big lead and forcing St. Louis into pass-heavy comeback mode, Steven Jackson is playing too well to sit. He showed impressive acceleration on a second-quarter 40-yard burst up the middle in Week 7, polishing off the drive with a six-yard touchdown on the next play. S-Jax has at least 21 touches in three straight games. The Saints' vulnerability is run defense, allowing the second most yards per rushing attempt (5.36) in the NFL. ... As expected, the Rams immediately featured Brandon Lloyd in his St. Louis debut last week. He saw a team-high 12 targets, hauling in six for 74 yards. It's impressive production considering A.J. Feeley was playing quarterback. ... Danario Alexander started at flanker and was targeted six times to rank second on the team, but only secured two for nine yards. Alexander may miss this game with a hamstring strain, leaving the Rams' No. 2 receiver job up for grabs. Brandon Gibson was a healthy scratch last week. Lloyd is the lone Rams receiver worth using in fantasy leagues, regardless of Sam Bradford's (ankle) status. And all signs point to Feeley making another start.
Score Prediction: Saints 38, Rams 17
Minnesota @ Carolina
Adrian Peterson owners concerned a rookie quarterback might make life even tougher on their top-three fantasy pick couldn't have been more pleased with Christian Ponder's debut, in what appeared an impossible matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs. The Vikings tailored their offense around Ponder's athleticism, getting him outside the pocket on rollouts and boots. What Peterson owners should hope for is improved ball movement in the post-Donovan McNabb era, and Ponder delivered by converting 22 first downs, the Vikings' second highest total of the season, as well as a year-best 56.3% third-down conversion rate (9-of-16). Green Bay entered Week 7 ranked fifth in run defense. After Peterson was through with them (24-175-1), the Packers dropped to ninth. The over/under on Peterson's Week 8 rushing yardage should probably approach 200. Peterson is already benefiting from improved quarterback play, and the Panthers rank 29th against the run. No NFL defense has allowed more rushing scores or 20-yard runs.
Ponder's updated target distribution this season: Michael Jenkins 12, Visanthe Shiancoe 9, Devin Aromashodu 7, Percy Harvin 5. ... Harvin's (ribs) targets have been affected by his inability to stay on the field. He's played 47-of-132 snaps (35.6%) in the past two games. While a better passing attack can only help his long-range production, I'd want to see Harvin play four quarters effectively before inserting him into my own lineup. ... Jenkins set a career high with 111 yards in Week 7, gaining 65% of them on the game's first play when he caught Tramon Williams off guard for a 72-yard bomb. In Week 8, Molasses Mike can expect to see plenty of Panthers shadow CB Chris Gamble. Per Pro Football Focus, Gamble has allowed just 8-of-25 passes (32%) to be completed against him this year for 84 yards (3.4 YPA) and one touchdown. ... Aromashodu has a better matchup than Jenkins, squaring off with Captain Munnerlyn. A starter now with Wide Deceiver Bernard Berrian sent packing, it'd still be nice to see Aromashodu put something substantial in a box score before using him in fantasy. ... Carolina has allowed an average of seven catches for 100 yards to tight ends over the past three weeks, including two touchdowns. Shiancoe is coming off his best effort of the year (4-45-1), but keep an eye on his foot injury leading up to game time. He’s certainly got an attractive matchup.
This is a sneaky shootout game with neither defense playing particularly well. Such a scenario would benefit Cam Newton, whose matchup improved when the Vikings suspended LCB Chris Cook for felony domestic assault. Cook was emerging as Minnesota's top corner, and slot CB Antoine Winfield's (neck) status is still shaky. The Panthers probably won't have rushing success against the NFL's No. 4 run defense, instead being forced to lean on Newton to generate ball movement. Newton, of course, can already wing it with the best of them, and Minnesota ranked 29th in pass defense even before Cook's loss. Save perhaps Drew Brees, there isn't a stronger Week 8 fantasy quarterback than 2011's surefire NFL Rookie of the Year. ... Opposing No. 1 receivers have dusted the Vikings for five touchdowns in the past five games, to go with a six-catch, 104-yard average. Steve Smith will end up seeing quite a bit of Cedric Griffin and Asher Allen in this game, and both have been burned throughout the season. Smith leads the league in receiving yards and 20-yard receptions, so you already knew to start him as a top-three WR1.
It's been mentioned repeatedly in this space, and the Panthers' coaching staff may have finally realized it: Jonathan Stewart is the Carolina's best running back, and it's not close. Stewart has quietly played more snaps than Williams in every game since Week 1, and in Week 7 J-Stew received more carries for the first time since Week 2. While Stewart and Williams are no better than flex options in this difficult matchup, the former has far and away emerged as the Panthers' fantasy back to own. Averaging 6.18 yards per touch to Williams' 5.07, Stewart will be the primary runner the rest of the way if the coaches are serious about fielding their best possible lineup. A changing of the guard may have already occurred in scoring position. Stewart has eight red-zone touches over the past two games, compared to Williams' three. Stewart's edges in playing time and usage inside opposing 20-yard lines suggest the Panthers have determined he's their best option in critical situations. ... Brandon LaFell scored a Week 7 touchdown, but hasn't cleared 50 yards since the opener and can't break free from his rotation with Legedu Naanee. While Cook and Winfield’s likely absences increase LaFell’s appeal this week, it will be an unreliable situation until something changes. ... The Vikings are permitting an average of over six catches for 57 yards to tight ends this season. Against Minnesota's Cover-2 defense, Greg Olsen should be in for a bounce-back game. He's off this week's injury report after being limited last week with a mild case of turf toe.
Score Prediction: Panthers 30, Vikings 20
Arizona @ Baltimore
Arizona has faced enough bad QBs to keep its pass defense ranking above 32nd, but I'd take the lower-rated units of Minnesota, Buffalo, Green Bay, and New England over the Cards' pass rush-secondary combo in a heartbeat. While the Cardinals have seen only the 19th most pass attempts against, they've managed to allow the third most completions of 20-plus yards in football. The Steelers recognized Arizona's pitiful back-end play and attacked in Week 7, using frequent spread sets to finish with a 39:27 run-to-pass ratio despite grabbing an early 14-0 lead. Even for as poorly as Joe Flacco has played, this is a matchup that should get him back on track. The Ravens face Pittsburgh's top-rated pass defense in Week 9, so they should feel pressure to reenergize their passing attack in an easy matchup before the key division game. ... As alluded to above, Arizona is extremely vulnerable to long passing plays. Their oversized corners struggle to turn and run with wideouts, and FS Kerry Rhodes' (broken foot) loss is devastating in deep coverage. If you're looking for a WR3 with upside, Torrey Smith is your man. He butters his bread with the long ball, and has exhibited improved short-to-intermediate route running skills since the Week 6 bye.
Anquan Boldin has struggled to create separation since the Ravens traded for him a year and a half ago, but he's put 12 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown in the box score over his last two games. This is the first time Boldin has faced his old team since the trade, so motivation won't be a problem. ... Ray Rice's 13 touches and 63 scoreless yards were disappointing at Jacksonville in Week 7, but the Ravens are sure to get him the ball more this Sunday. Arizona has allowed eight rushing touchdowns in six games. Rice is still a top-six back in fantasy points per game and an every-week starter. ... Ed Dickson hasn't scored since the season opener and is averaging under 38 yards per week. He's not a recommended bye-week option despite a favorable matchup.
The Cardinals will struggle to score in this game, and not just because Baltimore's defense allows both the fewest points and yards in the league. Beanie Wells' (knee) absence will render Arizona's offense one-dimensional, and the Kevin Kolb-led passing game has done nothing that suggests it can move the ball against mediocre opponents, much less a top-four pass defense. I'd avoid Kolb, Early Doucet, and Arizona's tight ends. ... In spite of Kolb's struggles, Larry Fitzgerald ranks 16th in per-game fantasy points among wideouts and needs to continue to be played with confidence. The Ravens don't usually put brackets on receivers because FS Ed Reed roams freely in center field and SS Bernard Pollard either covers tight ends or plays in the box. Fitz is the lone Arizona skill player worth serious Week 8 fantasy consideration. ... The Cardinals will use "a little bit of back-by-committee" approach to replace Wells, coach Ken Whisenhunt has confirmed. Chester Taylor will come off the game-day inactives list to split early-down work with Alfonso Smith, while LaRod Stephens-Howling plays the Darren Sproles role on passing downs. None of the above is likely to exceed 15 touches, making it a situation to avoid against the AFC's premier run defense.
UPDATE: Wells increased his practice participation Friday and now has a chance to play against the Ravens. On Friday evening, reliable beat reporter Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic suggested Wells will be on a carry count in the toughest matchup he'll face all year. If I were a Wells owner, I'd have him on my bench hoping he's declared inactive, uses the time off to get healthier, and resumes a full workload next week against the Rams.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Cardinals 13
Jacksonville @ Houston
Arian Foster busted his two-game slump for a whopping 234 total yards and three touchdowns in Week 7, obliterating a previously stout Titans run defense. The Texans have smartly expanded Foster's passing-game role, and he's capitalized with a 96-yard receiving average alone over the past three weeks. In two career meetings with Jacksonville, Foster has poured on three scores and 250 all-purpose yards. He's the most valuable fantasy player in football today. ... Ben Tate racked up 104 yards on 15 carries in Week 7, but keep in mind that the vast majority of his production came in garbage time of Houston's 41-7, blowout win. Specifically, 11 of Tate's runs and 88 of his yards occurred after the Texans built a 27-0 lead. Tate is an excellent young player and might be the NFL's best No. 2 back, but he's a handcuff. ... Andre Johnson (hamstring) will be a game-time decision. His availability would greatly affect the start-ability of Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter, rendering Jones a backup and Walter a low-end WR3. As this is being written, my best guess is that the Texans will give Johnson one more week. But if he's active Sunday, start him.
UPDATE: Kubiak ruled out Johnson on Friday. Jones and Walter will be the Texans' starting receivers Sunday.
It's a notion difficult to grasp because we've seen so many years of pitiful Jaguars secondary play, but it's become a recurring theme in this space: Jacksonville fields a legitimately strong pass defense. Now ranked sixth against the pass, the Jags shut down Joe Flacco last Monday, keyed by a dynamite performance from RE Jeremy Mincey and aggressive press coverage. So far this year, Jacksonville has held Flacco, Cam Newton, and Ben Roethlisberger to a combined 51-of-95 (53.7%) passing for 495 yards (5.21 YPA), and three touchdowns in three games. Neither Flacco, Newton, nor Big Ben has topped 200 yards. Jacksonville's lone hiccup was a 351-yard passing day surrendered to Drew Brees in Week 4, but the Jags picked off Brees twice and held the Saints to 23 points. This is a concern for Matt Schaub, who remains more of a borderline fantasy starter than top-ten signal caller. ... Owen Daniels has skyrocketed to No. 7 in the fantasy tight end rankings with at least 71 yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games, the lone outlier being a double team-heavy effort in Baltimore two weeks ago. His burst all the way back from debilitating 2009-2010 knee injuries, Daniels is averaging a career-high 13.1 yards per catch.
Blaine Gabbert looks the part at 6-foot-4 with terrific arm strength and athleticism, but he is deathly afraid of contact. It shows up whenever Gabbert has a defender closing in on him, be it inside or outside of the pocket. This isn't just a long-term concern for Jacksonville; it's a terrible combination with their current crop of wide receivers, who struggle to create separation. Gabbert's accuracy tanks when he's constantly making throws off his back foot, and the Jaguars’ wideouts are prone to drops because they can't find a rhythm. (And aren't any good.) The Texans' defense is banged up, but there won't be a member of Jacksonville's passing game worth using in fantasy leagues until proven otherwise. ... The Jaguars' offensive woes will likely prevent Maurice Jones-Drew from finishing as a top-12 fantasy back, but he's having a marvelous season all things considered. Still a top-14 runner in fantasy points per game, Jones-Drew is averaging 4.57 yards a carry and last week topped 100 rushing yards against a Ravens defense that hadn't allowed an opposing back to reach the century mark since Week 14 last season. MJD is an every-week RB2.
Score Prediction: Texans 21, Jaguars 10
Miami @ NY Giants
The Giants return from a bye with restored health on offense, particularly in the front five. RG Chris Snee has been medically cleared from a concussion, and C David Baas is past his lingering "burner." This is great news for New York's interior run blocking, which has been inconsistent all year. Brandon Jacobs is also due back after a two-game knee injury, but let's not get carried away calling the Giants' backfield a true "committee." When Ahmad Bradshaw and Jacobs have both been active for games -- a four-week sample size -- Bradshaw is averaging 17.5 touches for 87 yards. Jacobs may be the slight favorite for goal-line work, but averages just 44 yards on 10 touches a game. Both have scored three touchdowns. While Jacobs' week-to-week fantasy value will depend on short-yardage scores, Bradshaw remains the Giants' clear-cut lead running back. The Dolphins rank 18th against the run, so think of Bradshaw as a rock-solid RB2 in Week 8. Jacobs is a flex consideration only in non-PPR leagues. He'll hurt you if he doesn't find pay dirt.
Since a rough opener, Eli Manning has turned it on with an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 302-yard average in his last five games. There's always a chance that Bad Eli might show, but working in his favor is a 21st-ranked Dolphins pass defense that has played well in just 1-of-6 games -- last week's loss to Tim Tebow. Miami has permitted a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio against. Eli is a quality, if low-end QB1 this week. ... Hakeem Nicks plays most of his snaps on the offensive left, leaving him likely to see RCB Sean Smith for the majority of the day. Nicks has at least 96 yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his last nine games. ... During the Week 7 bye, playcaller Kevin Gilbride indicated that slot man Victor Cruz will remain behind Mario Manningham in the pecking order for the foreseeable future, pointing to poor routes and a back-breaking Week 5 fumble that foreshadowed his reduced Week 6 role. Mario stands to benefit as an every-week WR3 moving forward with breakout potential for the stretch run. This week, top Dolphins CB Vontae Davis’ expected absence due to an aggravated hamstring injury could easily result in Manningham’s slump-buster. Seventh-round rookie Jimmy Wilson will start. ... Jake Ballard caught only 34 passes during his college career and went undrafted out of Ohio State two Aprils ago. While he's performed better than anyone could've imagined this season, ultimately Ballard offers very low upside and can get caught on the line blocking for long stretches.
Struggling recently, I'd feel better about using Daniel Thomas if Giants LE Justin Tuck (neck) is out of this week's lineup. In Tuck's two games played this year, the G-Men have allowed opposing tailbacks to rush for 187 yards and one score on 48 carries (3.89 YPC). In four games without Tuck, running backs have 94 attempts for 472 yards (5.02 YPC) and six rushing touchdowns. ... Despite handing the feature back job to Thomas, the Dolphins have tried to keep Reggie Bush involved with at least 10 carries in four straight games. Bush just isn't getting enough yardage to be more than a desperation flex play. He hasn't scored a touchdown since the opener, and his PPR value is way down with a measly eight receptions in his last five games. ... Piggybacking on last week's stat, Matt Moore is now 134-of-236 passing (56.8%) for 1,425 yards (6.04 YPA), six touchdowns, and 13 interceptions with 21 sacks taken in his last nine appearances. His teams are 1-8. ... Moore's target distribution on the season: Brandon Marshall 31, Davone Bess, Brian Hartline 12, Anthony Fasano 7. ... Marshall has settled in as more of a WR2 than top-ten fantasy receiver, but has what should be a favorable matchup with CB Corey Webster. The Giants assign Webster to shadow opposing No. 1 receivers, but his coverage has always been hit or miss. ... Bess is coming off his best game of the season, leading the Dolphins in targets (12) and catches (7). He still hasn't topped 52 receiving yards since Week 1 or scored a touchdown all year.
UPDATE: Thomas was ruled out for Week 8 after aggravating his hamstring injury. Bush will likely lead the Dolphins in touches this week, but is a low-end flex option in fantasy leagues. Lex Hilliard may vulture a goal-line score, if the Fins generate any ball movement Sunday. I wouldn't bet on it.
Score Prediction: Giants 24, Dolphins 13
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
The Titans' passing game has slowed considerably since a fast start, but a date with Indy's easy-to-burn defense may be what the doctor ordered for Matt Hasselbeck. In their past three games, the Colts have been pummeled by Matt Cassel, Andy Dalton, and Drew Brees for a combined 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 846 yards on 96 throws (8.8 YPA), and a 80.2 completion rate. Hasselbeck isn't a QB1 and won't be the rest of the way, but he's certainly worth a two-QB league play. ... Nate Washington's numbers have slumped with Hasselbeck's, and last week the Titans' nominal No. 1 receiver was nearly zeroed out of the box score by Texans CB Johnathan Joseph, finishing with one reception for 10 yards. While Washington has flopped since Kenny Britt blew out his knee (47.3-yard average), he's a respectable WR3 in this matchup. Tennessee is likely to have passing success, and Washington is the best bet on the roster for a steady heaping of targets.
Jared Cook doesn't get the ball or play enough for consistent fantasy usage, but he's one of the stronger TE2s going because he possesses playmaking talent. Cook caught another touchdown in Week 7 and has scored in two of his last three games. He's averaging 17.7 yards per reception, a clip that leads all AFC tight ends with more than 10 catches. You could do worse in a bye-week crunch. ... Possession receiver Damian Williams is the Titans' least desirable fantasy player. He's cleared 20 yards in 1-of-6 games and is averaging just 9.9 yards per ball caught. ... The Titans' Week 6 bye did nothing to kick start Chris Johnson, so owners just have to hope running back-friendly matchups turn him around. The Colts rank 31st against the run and are surrendering 5.28 yards per carry to tailbacks over the last month. Johnson's numbers are much more ordinary than his name and contract suggest when extrapolated over the last 16 games. During that span, Johnson's rushing line is 270-1,036-5. And he's obviously reached an entirely new low this year.
After playing passably in his first three starts, Curtis Painter took four steps back in Week 7 at New Orleans. Painter went 9-of-17 for 68 yards and a pick six before being mercifully benched for Dan Orlovsky in the fourth quarter of the historic, 62-7 loss. Painter will keep his job, but can't be trusted in fantasy leagues until he strings together at least two reasonably well-played games. ... Even with Tennessee's defense tanking lately, it's going to take serious cajones to bet on Colts pass catchers this week. Here's an update on Painter's target distribution for the year, in case you're willing to take that leap: Pierre Garcon 33, Reggie Wayne 25, Austin Collie 18, Dallas Clark 16. ... It's clear by now that Garcon is Painter's favorite receiver, ahead of the declining Wayne, little-used Collie, and fantasy non-factor Clark. NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe called out Wayne on Playbook this week for rounding off his routes. Sharpe suggested Wayne has already called it a season. ... The winless Colts inexplicably rushed Joseph Addai back from a hamstring strain in Week 7, and he aggravated the injury in the game's first quarter. I don't think Addai will play in Nashville, though I would've said the same last week. Regardless of Addai's status, Delone Carter will be the best fantasy option in Indianapolis' backfield after finally running with some confidence and purpose against the Saints. Carter now has a touchdown in 2-of-3 games and is coming off a 10-carry, 89-yard performance that figures to earn him a bigger role going forward.
UPDATE: Just like last week, Addai returned to a full practice Friday and is now expected to play against the Titans. It's hard to imagine trusting any member of the Colts' backfield, but my lean would still be toward Carter if forced to pick one.
Score Prediction: Titans 20, Colts 17
4:05PM ET Games
Detroit @ Denver
Tim Tebow finished his first start of 2011 with 23 standard-league fantasy points, 17 coming after the 5:23 mark in the fourth quarter. For the initial 54:37, the Broncos employed an extremely conservative run-oriented offense, generating scant ball movement with a 30:14 run-to-pass ratio. Shotgun-spread sets and an aggressive attack ensued in comeback mode, and Tebow capitalized to finish fifth among quarterbacks in Week 7 fantasy scoring. Just think how many points Tebow would have scored if the Broncos tailored the scheme to his talent for four quarters. Only time will tell whether old-school coach John Fox is philosophically capable of buying in, but the run-twice-and-pass-on-third-down approach is destined for failure because Tebow's elongated throwing motion makes him a sitting duck in a telegraphed game plan. It'd be an especially bad idea against Detroit's ferocious front four. Denver can be competitive and Tebow can flirt with top-five quarterback stats if the coaching staff lets it happen. ... The Broncos started Eric Decker and Eddie Royal in Week 7, but wound up using Demaryius Thomas on 45-of-77 snaps. Thomas was Tebow's favorite option, seeing a club-high 10 targets while Royal and TE Daniel Fells tied for second with four. If the Broncos do follow through with a spread-type offense (as they should), Thomas will be an every-down player. At this point, my money would be on Demaryius leading the Broncos in receiving the rest of the way.
Willis McGahee underwent surgery Tuesday to repair the fourth metacarpal in his right hand, a procedure the Denver Post expects to cost him at least two weeks. (Agent-driven reports insist the timetable is 1-2 weeks, but that is overly optimistic.) After McGahee went down, Moreno received five of the backfield's next seven touches compared to Lance Ball's two. Ball did close out the game with three straight overtime carries to set up Matt Prater's game-winning field goal, but Moreno projects as the Broncos' lead back. The Lions rank 28th in run defense and allow 5.03 yards per rushing attempt, so this is a favorable matchup to plug-and-play Moreno as an RB2. He won't struggle to flirt with 18 touches if the Broncos approach this game like they did last week's. ... Fox's staff seems to prefer Ball in short-yardage situations, suggesting he may get the goal-line carries if Tebow doesn't just punch it in himself. It's still hard to imagine considering Ball any more than a desperate flex option in this game. Moreno is the Broncos' fantasy running back to own.
The Lions started Maurice Morris against Atlanta last week, using him on 39-of-58 snaps (67.2%). Keiland Williams rotated in to start the second quarter, however, and the two finished with the same amount of carries (9). Williams played 18 snaps (31.0%). While Morris remains the lead back and favorite for all passing-down work, the backfield appears set up for a committee until Jahvid Best (concussion) returns. Denver's run defense has been better than given credit this year, allowing just 3.86 yards per rushing attempt. Neither Morris nor Williams can be considered better than a low-end flex play. ... Virtually all observers at Lions practice this week had positive things to say about Matthew Stafford, who moved around well on his supposedly injured ankle and will start Sunday. Based on all the information I've gathered, I'd feel good about considering Stafford close to or at 100 percent. I also feel very good about his matchup. RE Elvis Dumervil (ankle) is not expected to play Sunday, and Denver is brutal in pass coverage aside from Champ Bailey. Only the Colts are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a higher passer rating on the season. Always a safe bet for two touchdown passes, Stafford remains a locked-and-loaded QB1.
Brandon Pettigrew had a down week (4-31) as Detroit's passing game stalled against the Falcons, but he still finished second on the Lions in targets and has played well enough to stay in lineups as a proven fantasy starter. Denver is juggling its lineup at safety, and Pettigrew could take over as the Lions' featured passing-game option if Bailey shuts down Calvin Johnson. ... The odds of that happening aren't good, of course. While Bailey did well to prevent Brandon Marshall from getting behind him last week, Megatron is an entirely different beast. You can't sit the No. 1 fantasy receiver regardless of matchup. ... Nate Burleson is on pace for 51 receptions and 508 yards. At this point, Burleson would need a Megatron or Pettigrew injury to be start-able in any given week. ... Titus Young hasn't exceeded 14 yards since Week 4, and his weekly yardage totals have been on a downslope since Week 2, bottoming out with a catch-less game against Atlanta. Like Burleson, Young would need something drastic to occur to be a fantasy starter.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Broncos 21
Washington @ Buffalo
This game will be played in the friendly confines of Toronto's Rogers Centre, formerly known as SkyDome. Rogers Centre has a retractable roof, so Ryan Fitzpatrick will air it out in favorable conditions regardless of whether the stadium is domed. In last year's Toronto game, Fitzpatrick threw a season-high 51 times for 299 yards against a Bears defense that at the time was among the NFL's best. That doesn't make Fitzpatrick a desirable fantasy option, of course, but it's good to know his popgun arm won't be inhibited by weather. ... Deep threat Donald Jones (ankle) won't return this week, leaving David Nelson and Stevie Johnson as the best bets for targets on the Bills' side. DeAngelo Hall figures to be assigned to Johnson, which certainly isn't a prohibitive matchup for the Bills' No. 1 receiver. It's interesting to note that Nelson, when lined up out wide, will have an eight-inch, 23-pound size advantage on Redskins No. 2 CB Josh Wilson. Nelson has also continued to see action in the slot, where he'd face off with struggling slot CB Kevin Barnes.
When Nelson is outside, C.J. Spiller, Naaman Roosevelt, and Brad Smith will be candidates for inside receiver snaps. It's hard to imagine investing in the cluttered situation for fantasy purposes. Spiller is the best bet, but he's strictly a desperation option. ... The Redskins have a top-11 pass defense because OLBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan bring consistent pressure, and Hall and Wilson are effective outside corners. Run defense has been more of an issue for Washington, which is generously surrendering 4.61 yards per rushing attempt and an average of one rushing touchdown per game. The Panthers piled up 175 yards and two scores on 37 carries (4.73 YPC) against the Redskins last week. Fred Jackson is probably the favorite for fantasy MVP as we approach the season's halfway point and should continue to confidently be started as an RB1.
If a troublesome quarterback situation didn't already, top wide receiver Santana Moss' broken left hand needs to enlighten Redskins coaches that a run-heavy offense is their best, and perhaps only option going forward. Historically pass-happy playcaller Kyle Shanahan seemed to buy into that notion last week by running the ball on 16 of Washington's initial 24 offensive snaps. The game plan was scrapped when Carolina took an early third-quarter lead, and after Tim Hightower tore his ACL. Be it with "likely" starter Ryan Torain or Week 8 super sleeper Roy Helu, Shanahan must pick up where he left off in last week's first half, directly attacking a Bills defense that ranks 30th against the run and will be without Pro Bowl NT Kyle Williams (foot). Buffalo is serving up 5.12 yards per carry and has allowed eight rushing TDs in six games. Oh, who's going to get the carries? Your guess is as good as mine. I don't own Torain, so I'll be taking my chances with Helu in a flex spot. ... John Beck showed some moxie in his first start since 2007, with an ability to move the offense and pick up first downs. Without Moss, however, Beck's job just got much tougher. Even as bad as Buffalo's pass defense ranking may appear, Beck is only a low-end QB2.
Beck's target distribution through two appearances: Fred Davis 12, Jabar Gaffney 12, Terrence Austin 7, Anthony Armstrong 4, Niles Paul 2. ... Beck and Davis showed an excellent rapport with six connections for 80 yards and a touchdown in Week 7, and Davis will remain the Redskins' top bet for receiving production the rest of the way. In the Bills' past four games, they've allowed three touchdowns to tight ends and a five-catch, 71.5-yard weekly average. It's another nice matchup for Davis. ... Gaffney is a 31-year-old possession receiver, but he'll see enough targets and play with enough efficiency to be worth WR3 consideration in PPR leagues. He's certainly not a terrible option, as may have been the case were Moss healthy. ... Paul, Armstrong, and Austin are now vying for snaps and looks from Beck in what may be a committee approach at No. 2 receiver. The Skins could also insert rookie Leonard Hankerson at any moment. Avoid the situation in fantasy.
Score Prediction: Redskins 20, Bills 17
4:15PM ET Games
New England @ Pittsburgh
Pats-Steelers has Week 8's highest over/under (52), which should comfort Tom Brady owners as he takes on Pittsburgh's No. 1 pass defense. Brady has historically pummeled the Steelers. In the sides' last two meetings, he's completed 62-of-89 throws (69.7%) for 749 yards (8.42 YPA), seven TDs, and no INTs. With Aaron Rodgers on bye, I'd consider only Drew Brees, Michael Vick, and Cam Newton better Week 8 QBs. ... The Pats typically attack Pittsburgh with a wide-open spread, picking apart the most favorable defensive back-pass catcher matchups Brady can find. Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker are the two biggest matchup nightmares on New England's roster. Hernandez carries risk, though. He only played 11 snaps in last year's Steelers game, afterward revealing it was part of a game plan that went heavy on two-tight end sets with superior blockers Alge Crumpler and Rob Gronkowski playing the vast majority of downs. Crump and Gronk were utilized to block LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison on the edges. Hernandez didn't catch a pass, while Gronkowski had three touchdowns. Of course, Bill Belichick can't be counted on to repeat a game plan, and Harrison (eye) isn't playing this time around. Both Hernandez and Gronkowski are elite TE1s. While the Steelers have blanketed outside receivers, they've allowed some of the biggest games of the season for Ed Dickson (5-59-1), Owen Daniels (5-69-1), and Jared Cook (4-59).
Steelers RCB Ike Taylor has been terrific all year but doesn't cover the slot, so don't look for him to be on Welker much. Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco -- assuming the latter even plays -- are more realistic candidates for Taylor's coverage. ... Keep in mind that New England posted a 43:24 pass-to-run ratio in last year's meeting with Pittsburgh, but still saw fit to give BenJarvus Green-Ellis 22 touches, which he took for 123 total yards. You want to play goal-line backs in games with high-scoring projections, and Law Firm remains the Patriots' best bet for carries in scoring position. ... Danny Woodhead and rookies Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are off the fantasy radar this week. Ridley and Vereen don't get enough playing time, and Woodhead hasn't exceeded nine touches since the opener. He got the ball six times against Pittsburgh last season.
On paper, everything sets up well for Ben Roethlisberger in this game. New England is last in the league in pass defense, and Big Ben is red hot with a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio over the last three weeks. He's settling in an every-week QB1. ... Rashard Mendenhall took a backseat in the Week 7 game plan as the Steelers relied on a spread offense to attack Arizona's awful pass defense. It'd make sense for Pittsburgh to take a similar approach this week. Mendenhall owners need to be aware that playcaller Bruce Arians is a creative, forward-thinking offensive mind, and averse to running into a brick wall when an opponent is more vulnerable elsewhere. It won't always end well for Mendenhall. In last year's game against the Patriots, Mendenhall finished with 11 carries for 50 scoreless yards and two receptions. Mendenhall needs to be trotted out in fantasy leagues every single week, but his usage and production may be inconsistent because of game flow and plan.
You'd have to think Arians knows it because it's so evident on game tape: The Steelers' offense is exponentially more explosive when Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders make up the three-receiver set. With Hines Ward nursing an ankle sprain on the sideline last week, 60 Minutes (3-118-1), Brown (7-102), and Sanders (5-46-1) unloaded on Arizona in a fast-paced, up-tempo aerial assault. Ward promises to be available against the Pats, but he may not play much. Brown and Sanders should both be thought of as desirable bye-week WR3s, and I'd be hard pressed to not rank Wallace as this week's top fantasy receiver play. The Patriots are allowing an average of 6.2 completions of 20-plus yards per game. The Cards just so happen to be second in that statistic, but with a distant 5.0 average of 20-yard pass plays surrendered. ... Heath Miller was recommended in this space last week because of a favorable matchup, but this one doesn't stack up as well. New England is much stronger at safety than Arizona, and the Patriots have held Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Dustin Keller to an average of 18.3 yards this season.
UPDATE: NFL Network's Albert Breer was in Pittsburgh all week, covering the events leading up to this game. Breer reported Friday night that Ward is "highly unlikely" to play against the Patriots. Sanders and Wallace will be the starting receivers with Brown playing in all three-wide sets.
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Steelers 23
Cleveland @ San Francisco
The Browns planned to give Peyton Hillis his starting job and 20-25 touch-per-game role back this week, but the contract-year runner suffered a setback with his now-lingering hamstring strain and won't play against the 49ers. Hillis' 2012 free agent market value is tanking, and not just because he's been bitten by the Madden Curse. Hillis hasn't been the same player since midway through last season. Dating back to December of 2010 -- a six-game sample size -- he's averaging 3.32 yards per carry. Since Week 11 of 2010 -- an 11-game span -- the average is a more respectable, if still unimpressive 3.72. Hillis had his day in the sun, and I'd bet heavily that last season goes down as the best of his career. The Browns were smart to not pay him. ... The 49ers rank second in run defense and remain the only team yet to allow a rushing score. Montario Hardesty has shown capable of grinding out three yards a carry, but that's it. He doesn't play on passing downs anymore because he can't catch, and the 49ers are a near-lock to keep his rushing stats low. I wouldn't start him. ... San Francisco's defense hasn't been quite as tough against the pass as the run, but is still far from a pushover unit in the air, surrendering the NFL's fifth-lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Colt McCoy is a fantasy option only in two-QB leagues.
Ben Watson suffered his second concussion of the season in Week 7, the first occurring in training camp. Evan Moore's playing time was already on the rise -- he played a season-high 41 snaps in Week 7 -- and could be in for another bump if Cleveland's starter sits this game out. No. 2 receiver Mohamed Massaquoi is also coming off a concussion, so Moore is a realistic candidate to lead the Browns in targets Sunday. Perhaps only Greg Little would be a better bet for catches and receiving yards. ... Little will square off with 49ers RCB Tarell Brown on early downs and slot CB Carlos Rogers when he moves inside in passing situations. I'm usually high on Little, but not this week. Rogers is playing at a shutdown level, and McCoy struggles to connect on passes outside the numbers. Little will have better matchups ahead. ... Special teamer Joshua Cribbs will supposedly start if Massaquoi can't go. Cribbs could command 5-6 targets in that scenario, making him a solid option in return-yardage leagues. He's off the fantasy football radar otherwise.
To put it mildly, Frank Gore has turned it around after a slow start. Whereas Gore managed a 2.51 YPC average in the 49ers' first three games, he's leaped to 7.86 in his last three with TDs in all of them. Gore's 28-year-old legs are extra fresh coming off a Week 7 bye, and he's playing far too well to be concerned with matchups. ... Kendall Hunter's playing time is slightly down with Gore lighting it up, but he's still one of my favorite lottery-ticket backup running backs to hold for the stretch run, even if you don't own Gore. With bye weeks soon ending, I like to use the strategy of packaging borderline starters sitting on my bench in trades that upgrade my starting lineup. I stack the open bench spots with NFL backups like Hunter, betting that the starter might go down. All it takes is one reserve to "hit," and you may have this year's late-season fantasy star.
Alex Smith predictably crashed back to earth before the open date, following up a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio in Weeks 4-5 with a 125-yard, one-score game at Detroit in Week 6. Smith lacks talent to sustain effective play, and this is another uninviting matchup. Back to full strength, the Browns' defense is surrendering a league-low 171.5 passing yards per game and paltry 53.3 completion rate to quarterbacks. Smith is a poor bet to hit 200 yards in Week 8. ... Vernon Davis probably won't finish like the top-three fantasy tight end he's been two years running, but he's maintained TE1 value as a top-nine player at the position in fantasy points per game. Look for Davis to face off with Browns SS T.J. Ward often in this one. ... Michael Crabtree appeared to be busting out of his slump before the bye week, but a matchup with shutdown CB Joe Haden and the potential return of Braylon Edwards (knee) to steal targets will take the wind out of Crabtree's sails. Davis is the only member of San Francisco's pass-catching corps I'd be willing to trust against Cleveland.
Score Prediction: 49ers 17, Browns 13
Cincinnati @ Seattle
No Week 8 game is projected to produce less scoring than Bengals-Seahawks with a pathetic 38-point over/under. Avoid players in this game where possible. ... Bernard Scott is the Flavor of the Week because he's starting for suspended Cedric Benson. While expectations should be limited against a stout Seahawks defense permitting a league-low 3.15 yards per carry, Scott may in fact be the Bengals' best option for this matchup. Scott is elusive with short-area quicks, which could give Seattle's heavyweight interior more trouble than Benson's downhill style. The Bengals are a top-nine team in rushing attempts per game, so Scott should offer plenty of volume. Scott started twice in 2009 and racked up 238 yards on 42 touches. Averaging 4.59 YPC entering this season, Scott has a reputable history of per-play effectiveness and offers one-week RB2 appeal. Just don't expect an expanded role going forward. The Bengals are smitten with Benson as their clear feature back. ... Jermaine Gresham has a touchdown in two of his past three games, but he is averaging 38.5 yards per week. Through six games, the Seahawks have allowed two touchdowns to tight ends and a five-catch, 54-yard weekly average. It's a mediocre matchup for Gresham.
Where the Bengals can exploit Seattle is on the perimeter, targeting heavy-legged cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. A fifth-round rookie, Sherman has entered the starting lineup after recent year-ending injuries to Marcus Trufant and Walter Thurmond III. Assuming the Seahawks don't shadow him with RCB Browner, A.J. Green will draw LCB Sherman for most of this game. Green rarely moves around the formation, almost always squaring off with left corners. You can't beat his Week 8 matchup. ... Jerome Simpson gets the tougher draw and has been wildly inconsistent. He's yet to find pay dirt this season, clearing 45 receiving yards in just 2-of-6 games. ... Andy Dalton makes for a fine two-QB league start against Seattle's 20th-ranked pass defense. Just don't get too cute. He's 20th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, this projects as a low-scoring affair, and road games in Seattle don't typically end well for rookie signal callers.
Coach Pete Carroll claims the Seahawks are leaving their Week 8 quarterback to a "game-day decision," but Charlie Whitehurst will likely make another start. Whitehurst was indescribably bad in last week's embarrassing, 6-3 loss to the Browns. No Seahawks pass catcher exceeded 38 yards, and no wideout topped two receptions. If you are starting a Seahawks receiver this week, you're essentially betting on a bounce-back game from Whitehurst. I can't imagine making that bet against a Bengals team that ranks No. 1 in total defense and No. 5 against the pass. Look past Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin for your Week 8 WR3. ... Realistically, there isn't a single start-able Seahawks fantasy player this week because of the matchup, low-scoring game projection, and Seattle's utter shortage of skill-position talent. Marshawn Lynch has a recurring back injury that left him inactive for Week 7 despite being listed as active on the game-day roster. While Lynch is supposed to play this week, he presents too much risk and not nearly enough possible reward to "wait for" in a late game. Lynch ranks 31st in fantasy scoring among tailbacks.
UPDATE: Tarvaris Jackson took a big step in his recovery from a strained pectoral in his right (throwing) arm Friday, participating in a full practice. Multiple reports suggest Jackson is now likely to start. I'm not confident that Jackson will be 100 percent on game day, and would continue to avoid the entire Seattle offense when it comes to lineup decisions.
Score Prediction: Bengals 17, Seahawks 10
Sunday Night Football
Dallas @ Philadelphia
This game has the second highest over/under of Week 8 at 51 points, so get your Cowboys and Eagles going. ... Philly returns from its bye with an O-Line at full strength. LT Jason Peters is back from his hamstring injury, and the interior of LG Evan Mathis, C Jason Kelce, and RG Danny Watkins was hitting its stride prior to the off week. Michael Vick is poised for a monster second half. ... Dallas' pass defense has overachieved relative to its middling secondary talent, but this game's high-scoring projection, the offensive line's improved health, and DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin's recent performance should lock the Eagles' receivers into fantasy lineups. While D-Jax has been inconsistent as usual, he's averaging 76 receiving yards per game and turned in an insane 4-210-1 line in his last meeting with Dallas. ... Maclin has been even more productive, averaging over seven catches for 98 yards per game since Week 1, to go with three touchdowns.
Slot receiver Jason Avant no longer has to worry about Steve Smith vulturing snaps, but remains an underwhelming WR3 option whenever D-Jax and Maclin are at full health. Avant hasn't scored a touchdown on the season while topping 40 yards in just 2-of-6 games. ... The Cowboys rank No. 1 in the league in run defense, but LeSean McCoy has proven matchup-proof in his true breakout season, already dusting the Falcons' top-six unit for 116 yards and two scores. Only Fred Jackson is averaging more fantasy points per game among NFL running backs, and McCoy's 5.42 YPC ranks third among players with at least 50 rushing attempts. ... Brent Celek had his best game of the season before the bye (4-42-1), but the touchdown was his first all year and he's yet to clear 45 yards entering Week 8. Even in a potential shootout, it's difficult to get excited about Celek when he's blocking on a big majority of his snaps and averaging under nine yards a catch.
In terms of corner-receiver matchups, Dez Bryant plays split end in the Cowboys' base offense, aligning to the left side of the formation. He'll primarily see RCB Nnamdi Asomugha in coverage. Miles Austin is a flanker-slot receiver. His usual position is RWR, meaning Austin will draw a mix of LCB Asante Samuel and slot CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in what projects as a more favorable matchup than Bryant's on paper. Both Austin (No. 6) and Bryant (No. 10) are top-ten fantasy receivers in points per game. So they're every-week starters. ... The best bet for targets and receptions on Dallas' side, however, may be Jason Witten. In matchups with Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis, and Vernon Davis, the Eagles have been gashed for three touchdowns by tight ends and a per-game average of 7.3 catches for 85.7 yards. Philly has simply never been effective in coverage of tight ends. In his last four meetings with the Eagles, Witten has piled up 24 catches for 234 yards and four touchdowns. In terms of a statistical line average, that's 6-59-1. I'd take it.
Tony Romo will take his final painkilling injection for a previously cracked rib and should be as healthy as he's been all year. With six touchdowns and two 300-plus yard efforts in his last three games, Romo is a shoo-in QB1 this week. Philadelphia has a top-ten pass defense, but has allowed nearly two passing scores per game despite having faced one of the NFL's weakest slates of signal callers. The Eagles' quarterback opponents so far (in order of goodness): Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman. ... DeMarco Murray's breakout Week 7 game should be taken with a grain of salt considering the matchup with St. Louis' league-worst run defense and Dallas' out-of-nowhere ability to open running lanes. The Cowboys haven't been able to run block all season, but suddenly could against a Rams team that played the entire game on its heels. The good news is Murray has another favorable matchup with a Philly defense that ranks 23rd against the run and surrenders 4.82 YPC. I would immediately look to sell Murray after this week. Felix Jones (ankle) will eventually return, and at least based on what I saw from Murray as a junior and senior at Oklahoma, last week's game will prove a mirage in the long run.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 23
Monday Night Football
San Diego @ Kansas City
The Chiefs' defense has padded its stats in consecutive matchups with Donovan McNabb, Curtis Painter, and the disastrous Raiders duo of Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer, aided by an early-game injury to Darren McFadden. K.C. now ranks what appears to be a somewhat respectable 18th in total defense, 17th against the pass, and 25th versus the run. We just don't know how good this Chiefs defense is because of the pathetic schedule. On San Diego's side, what we do know is that coach Norv Turner divvies up tailback playing time based heavily on practice reps. Mike Tolbert (hamstring, hand) missed two practices this week, and the last time that happened Ryan Mathews exploded for season highs in touches (25), total yards (149) and touchdowns (2) against these same Chiefs in Week 3. While Tolbert only got the ball seven times in that game, Mathews handled goal-line duties and a comfortable majority of passing-down snaps. Games don't always (rarely?) play out as we expect them to, but it'd be reasonable to anticipate a healthy dose of Mathews at Arrowhead Stadium. It's hard to imagine using Tolbert in a fantasy league.
UPDATE: Tolbert missed a third straight practice Friday. Afterwards, Turner acknowledged that he's "not hopeful" Tolbert will be available against the Chiefs. Mathews should be in line for no fewer than 24 touches on Monday Night Football.
Speculation via Wesseling, ESPN's Matt Williamson, and NFL Network's Jason La Canfora this week that Philip Rivers is playing hurt was vehemently disputed by Rivers and the Chargers' coaching staff. If Rivers and Turner are to be believed, the three-time Pro Bowl quarterback should finish fast against one of the league's softest pass-defense schedules, and it will start on Monday night. Rivers has historically lit it up at Arrowhead, in his last three games there completing 74-of-117 passes (63.2%) for 912 yards (7.79 YPA), seven touchdowns, and one interception. Amid the rumors, I personally would consider Rivers a QB2 until he actually plays well in a game. But the matchup isn't prohibitive, and Rivers' track record suggests he'll pick it up. ... Antonio Gates will play Monday night, and his availability alone makes him a top-five fantasy tight end play. It's icing on the cake that Gates has 194 yards and three touchdowns on 12 catches in his last two meetings with the Chiefs. ... Vincent Jackson owners need to shake off last week's 1-15 clunker against Darrelle Revis and use him against Kansas City. Jackson is as healthy as he's been since the season started and might be the best "buy low" in fantasy football right now.
Matt Cassel's three-game hot streak crashed to an end against Oakland in Week 7, completing 50% of his 30 attempts for 161 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Chargers rank third in pass defense, so this is a forbidding matchup for a quarterback who isn't any good. ... If San Diego continues the coverage strategy it employed against the Jets last week, Quentin Jammer will be assigned to Dwayne Bowe with rookie Marcus Gilchrist on Steve Breaston. Jammer held Santonio Holmes to 24 yards on two Week 7 catches, while Gilchrist was promoted onto the first-team defense this week after ex-starter Antoine Cason allowed a trio of red-zone touchdowns to Plaxico Burress. I'll never recommend Breaston because I don't believe in him as a player or his offense, but he's got a good-looking matchup. Playing out of his mind in a contract year, Bowe is the No. 6 fantasy receiver and has earned a start every week. Just keep in mind that the Chargers have held Bowe under 14 yards in three of their last four meetings with him.
Last week's snap and touch distribution in the Chiefs' backfield (snaps are first, touches second): Jackie Battle 41, 16; Dexter McCluster 23, 11; Thomas Jones 14, 9. ... 7 of Jones' 9 carries against the Raiders occurred after Kansas City built a 28-0 lead. Jones is a non-factor unless the Chiefs are blowing out a team, and that won't happen on Monday night. ... Battle has clearly taken over as the team's lead back, and has a favorable Week 8 matchup. Simply unable to field an effective rush defense this season, the Bolts are serving up 4.74 yards per carry and rank 21st versus the run. Last week, they allowed Shonn Greene's best game since Week 4 of 2010, when he had a cupcake matchup with the Bills. Battle is a low-end RB2 but high-end flex option.
Score Prediction: Chargers 20, Chiefs 17