4:15PM ET Games
NY Giants @ New England
Of all the games on the Week 8 schedule, Giants-Pats has the best chance to be a shootout with both quarterbacks hitting on all cylinders and the defenses underperforming. Trot out your studs, and don't think twice. ... ESPN's Merril Hoge, a controversial but reputable analyst for his heavy reliance on game tape, ranked his top-five NFL quarterbacks in today's game on SportsCenter this week. They were 1) Aaron Rodgers 2) Ben Roethlisberger 3) Tom Brady 4) Drew Brees 5) Cam Newton. I don't quibble with Hoge's rankings, but Eli Manning has to be an awfully close No. 6. In his last six games, Eli has completed 138-of-209 passes (66.0%) for 1,773 yards (8.48 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Since Week 3, his per-game yardage average is 334. The Patriots lost two of their top three cornerbacks last week, releasing Leigh Bodden and placing rookie starter Ras-I Dowling on injured reserve. New England ranks 32nd in pass defense and is tied for 24th in sacks. Manning has the best quarterback matchup in the league this week. ... Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) is not expected to play Sunday, leaving Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz as must-start WR2/3 options in a red-hot passing game with a plus matchup. Mario is the slight favorite for targets, and Cruz will get to play more at his natural outside receiver spot. This one isn't hard. If I owned Cruz and Manningham, I'd start them both.
Ramses Barden is tentatively expected to be activated from PUP and see action in the slot at New England. Barden can be a red-zone presence at a Plaxian 6-foot-6, 227, but will probably play no more than 20 snaps. ... Jake Ballard has settled in as a consistent if low-upside TE2 with at least 55 yards in three straight games. Ballard runs about a 4.85 forty and lacks big-play ability. ... Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, Ahmad Bradshaw will try to play against the Pats despite a crack in his chronically injured foot. The Giants will likely decide Bradshaw's status during pre-game warmups Sunday. In a late game, Bradshaw's availability probably won't be known until the afternoon, making him tough to count on if you're not a Brandon Jacobs owner, too. Monitor the situation into Sunday morning before setting your lineup. The Patriots rank ninth against the run, so it's not an especially favorable matchup regardless. ... Should Bradshaw miss the game, Brandon Jacobs would be on the hook for 16-20 touches in what may be a high-scoring affair. Jacobs would get the goal-line carries. D.J. Ware and Da'Rel Scott are change-of-pace and passing-down options.
Owners of Patriots skill players need to block out last week's game and start their studs against the Giants. New York ranks 13th against the pass and 28th against the run, so despite talented personnel this is hardly a shutdown defense. ... Tom Brady is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback with an 18:8 TD-to-INT ratio and 337-yard average through seven starts. He has multiple touchdowns in all but one game. ... Pittsburgh held Wes Welker under 40 yards last week by shadowing him with Ike Taylor, who has rarely covered the slot in his career. It was out of character for the Steelers. The Giants also never use CB Corey Webster against inside receivers, so the guess remains that Webster will be on Deion Branch for the majority of this game. Welker will play despite a neck injury and ranks second in the league in fantasy receiver scoring. ... In terms of fantasy points per game, Rob Gronkowski is the No. 2 tight end and Aaron Hernandez is No. 9. There's every reason to believe they're both top-ten fantasy plays at their position in this game.
Branch has either a touchdown or at least 69 yards on 6-of-7 games. While he's seemed to lack consistency, Branch is still a top-25 fantasy receiver. I don't own Branch, but if I did I'd consider him an every-week WR3. ... The Pats' already muddled backfield became even less predictable when Kevin Faulk came off the PUP list to lead New England's running backs in Week 8 touches and snaps. There's no way to tell whether that was a product of Bill Belichick's game planning, or something to expect going forward. Clearly, though, it has made Danny Woodhead (0 touches), Stevan Ridley (0 snaps), and Shane Vereen (inactive) fantasy non-factors for the moment. If I'm going to use a Patriots running back in Week 9, it would still be BenJarvus Green-Ellis. More often than not, "Law Firm" will be the favorite for carries and goal-line work. Stopping the run has been the Giants' weakness to this point in the season. Faulk is a 35-year-old passing-down specialist.
Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Giants 28
St. Louis @ Arizona
Preseason observations led me to believe Steven Jackson's demise was near. I'd never seen him run so slowly and struggle so much to get the corner. Perhaps it was post-lockout overanalysis, because S-Jax has been an animal in real games. As powerful as ever with plenty of remaining open-field acceleration, Jackson is averaging a career-high 5.35 yards per carry and has held up on four straight workloads of 21 or more touches. During his Week 8 destruction of New Orleans, Jackson had 13 gains of six or more yards and seven for double digits. Both of his touchdowns came from three yards out. Arizona has allowed a league-high 11 rushing scores this season, so look for Jackson to stay hot as a high-end RB2 this week. ... Brandon Lloyd's Week 8 game would've been much bigger had he not suffered a rare drop on the initial play of the fourth quarter that could've gone 76 yards for a touchdown. The Rams are moving Lloyd around the offensive formation in an effort to make him more difficult to defend, so he'll see plenty of both RCB Patrick Peterson and LCB A.J. Jefferson. Peterson has been obliterated in coverage all season, and Jefferson was benched for Richard Marshall last week after getting destroyed by Anquan Boldin.
The Rams are leaving their Week 9 quarterback up to a game-time decision. Danario Alexander (hamstring) will not play, so behind Jackson and Lloyd there isn't much fantasy hope for Rams skill players anyway. Brandon Gibson has proven to lack separation skills, catching two passes for 27 yards last week while drawing the start. Rookie Greg Salas has settled in as the team's slot receiver, coming off a five-catch, 47-yard game. Gibson isn't an option, and Salas offers scant upside in a WR3 slot even if Sam Bradford (ankle) plays. If not, A.J. Feeley would make a third straight start. As this is being written, my money would indeed be on Feeley starting the game.
I liked John Skelton as a small-school prospect coming out of Fordham two Aprils ago. He's got plenty of arm strength and is built like Joe Flacco. Accuracy has been a big issue for Skelton in the pros, however, and the Cardinals' coaching staff played undrafted rookie Max Hall over him last season. Even for as much as Kevin Kolb struggled before his foot injury, Skelton probably won't help the cause of any Arizona skill player. Pass protection problems won't suddenly go away. Kolb has taken 24 sacks, second most in the league behind Ben Roethlisberger. ... Look for the Cardinals to lean heavily on Beanie Wells as he takes on St. Louis' last-ranked run defense. Despite a knee ailment, Wells received 22 carries in Week 8 -- his second most all year -- and if coach Ken Whisehunt can help it, he won't leave the outcome of this game in Skelton's hands. ... In Skelton's four 2010 starts, Larry Fitzgerald averaged seven catches for 87 yards with one TD. The numbers are quite good and Fitzgerald is playing the Rams, so start him confidently. ... Early Doucet still hasn't supplanted Andre Roberts as a starter, even though he's out-produced him all year. Since the Week 6 bye, Doucet has played 55 snaps to Roberts' 118. With passing-game efficiency likely to drop in Arizona, Doucet is just a WR4/5. ... Rob Housler has been thoroughly unproductive, is now battling a groin injury, and Todd Heap (hamstring) still isn't 100%. Avoid the Arizona tight ends in fantasy.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Cardinals 17
Green Bay @ San Diego
Pack-Bolts in sunny San Diego would normally have a shootout look, but not with the way the Chargers' offense is performing. San Diego's skill players can't even get on the practice field together, and tailback Ryan Mathews (groin) is not expected to play. I'd still want to see Philip Rivers play well in a game before trusting him as more than a QB2 in fantasy. Rivers leads the NFL in interceptions and has only seven touchdowns through seven games. He's the No. 19 quarterback after finishing in the top seven three straight years. After a half-season of struggles, I'd be skeptical that this is something he can "snap out of." ... Malcom Floyd missed two practices this week with a hip injury, and has under 60 yards in 5-of-7 games this year. He's found pay dirt once. In terms of cornerback-receiver matchups, expect to see Floyd square off with Packers RCB Tramon Williams for most of this one with a combo of Charles Woodson and Sam Shields on Vincent Jackson. Per Pro Football Focus, Williams has been targeted 38 times over the past five games, allowing 19 completions (50%). The catches have gone for 281 yards (7.4 YPA) without a single touchdown.
Antonio Gates played 75 snaps in Week 8. He doesn't appear to be 100 percent, but is healthy enough to be an every-down player. With nine catches for 127 yards and a score in two games since returning from the foot injury, Gates is an every-week fantasy starter. ... Mike Tolbert will handle a full workload against a Green Bay run defense that has flashed vulnerability since a hot start. The Packers are in good enough shape up front to hold Tolbert to 70-80 rushing yards, but he'll be a solid bet for a goal-line touchdown and 20-plus touches. The path to a huge role is cleared by Mathews' expected absence. Curtis Brinkley (concussion) won't play much, if he's active at all. ... Vincent Jackson has had three straight slow games, but dominant talent can't be left on fantasy benches. When he matches up with the aforementioned Shields, Jackson will boast a six-inch, 46-pound size advantage. The two will likely face each other often because Woodson is Green Bay's best option to cover Gates.
Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in completion rate (71.5%), touchdown passes (20), yards-per-pass attempt (11.0), and passer rating (125.7). No quarterback has scored more fantasy points. ... While the Chargers have struggled to stop the run, they rank fourth in the league in pass defense and don't figure to allow four Packers pass catchers to burn them as other defenses have. James Jones plays significantly fewer snaps and sees fewer targets than Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, and Greg Jennings, and will be difficult to trust because of this matchup. Jones only has one game over 63 yards this season. ... The Packers have used Quentin Jammer as a shadow corner for the last two games, so he'll likely track Jennings all around the formation. That would leave Jordy Nelson in rookie Marcus Gilchrist's coverage. Jennings is a WR1, Nelson a WR3.
It's scary to think that the Packers' passing game is hitting on all cylinders and Finley hasn't even hit his stride yet. The Chargers have allowed big games to Rob Gronkowski (4-86-2) and Aaron Hernandez (7-62-1) already this year, and in two other San Diego games Daniel Fells and Dustin Keller were the opposing team's top receiver. This isn't a prohibitive matchup, and the Packers may have tinkered with their offense during the Week 8 bye to emphasize getting Finley the ball more. He's a good trade target in fantasy leagues. Finley's ability has not diminished. ... John Kuhn only has 14 touches through seven games, but he's essentially made the Packers' backfield a three-way committee as the favorite for goal-line carries. James Starks hasn't scored since Week 1, and Ryan Grant hasn't reached the end zone all year. Starks still has the most value among Packers backs, but doesn’t get easy chances in scoring position, and there are no indications that Green Bay will get away from its rotational look. We may know more after this game because San Diego has been easy to run on all season.
Score Prediction: Packers 28, Chargers 20
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
In seven career matchups with the Ravens, Rashard Mendenhall has managed 376 yards on 126 carries (2.98 YPC). While Mendenhall has kept his fantasy scoring afloat with five touchdowns in the last five Ravens-Steelers games, it would be overly optimistic to expect lofty yardage against the league's No. 3 run defense. Mendenhall's carries are down over the past two weeks because Pittsburgh has relied on a throw-heavy spread offense, posting a combined 89:51 run-to-pass ratio in wins over Arizona and New England. The formula has been successful, so it would be unreasonable to expect change. Mendenhall may need goal-line scores to please fantasy owners in Week 9. On a brighter note, Mendenhall is playing awfully well since his early-season hamstring injury. He's averaging 5.06 YPC since sitting out Week 5. ... Heath Miller routinely stays on the line to block when the Steelers play Baltimore. In 13 career regular season meetings with the Ravens, Miller has never exceeded 42 yards. He hasn't found pay dirt against them since 2007.
Emmanuel Sanders' (knee) loss is a blow, but the Steelers don't figure to get away from their spread-heavy offensive trend. A healthy Hines Ward will take over Sanders' role in the slot, with Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace outside. "60 Minutes" Wallace burned these same Ravens for eight catches and 107 yards earlier this season, and will be tougher to double team with Brown adding credibility on the opposite side. Through eight weeks, Wallace is the No. 4 fantasy receiver behind only Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, and Carolina's Steve Smith. ... Despite Ward's return, Brown's role won't change. He played a season-high 55-of-81 snaps (67.9%) in Week 8 while setting a career high in receptions (9). Brown should be a stable fantasy WR3 for at least one more game. ... Here are Ward's last six stat lines against the Ravens: 5-67, 3-25-1, 2-14, 1-13, 4-37, 3-47, 3-55. (Hint: Aim higher.) ... Ben Roethlisberger is on a tear in the revised offense, piling up an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio across his last four starts with at least 360 yards in two straight. Even against Baltimore's top-three pass defense, Roethlisberger is a strong QB1 play in Week 9.
The Steelers are expected to be without three of their four starting linebackers Sunday night: LaMarr Woodley (hamstring), James Harrison (eye), and James Farrior (calf). Ray Rice would have been a top-five RB1 before the defensive depletion, and he's an even more confident fantasy start now. Remember, Rice torched Pittsburgh's defense at full strength for 149 total yards and two touchdowns in the opener. He'll have more lanes with special teamers Stevenson Sylvester and Chris Carter playing significant snaps on defense. ... Joe Flacco displayed some resilience by leading Baltimore back from a 24-3 first-half deficit in Week 8, throwing for 336 yards. Unfortunately, he now has to deal with the best pass defense in football. Flacco did have 224 yards and three touchdowns in the aforementioned Week 1 game, but he's consistently played poorly since. I wouldn't trust him as a fantasy starter. ... Ed Dickson hasn't reached pay dirt in his last six games and is averaging 35 yards over that span. He's a clear-cut TE2 in fantasy leagues.
Lee Evans (ankle) will miss yet another game. Rookie Torrey Smith leads the league in yards per reception, but it doesn't help much when he's catching three passes per week. Smith failed to capitalize on a prime matchup with Arizona's secondary in Week 8, dropping a pass that led to an interception and picking up 57 scoreless yards. He's a WR4 only, and at this point there's little doubt that Antonio Brown is a better bet in this particular game. ... The linebacker injuries on Pittsburgh's side could help Anquan Boldin's matchup because he runs so many routes over the middle. Looking fresh-legged since Baltimore's Week 5 bye, Boldin has racked up 19 catches for 317 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. The Ravens did an excellent job of keeping Boldin off Ike Taylor in the season opener, and he took advantage with 74 yards and a score.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 24
Monday Night Football
Chicago @ Philadelphia
With his offensive line and supporting cast healthy, Michael Vick returned from his Week 7 bye playing like the most confident football player in the league. Before taking the pedal off the gas in the final two quarters of Week 8, Vick doused the Cowboys for 187 first-half yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-17 passing, along with 45 rushing yards. For the season's final nine games, there isn't a quarterback I'd rather own in fantasy football. ... The Bears' Cover-2 defense is designed to hold deep threats like DeSean Jackson in check, although he's racked up more than 100 all-purpose yards in 2-of-3 career meetings with Chicago, to go with two touchdowns. While D-Jax is arguably the most boom-or-bust fantasy receiver in the NFL, his week-to-week ceiling makes him impossible to bench. ... Easily the most consistent wideout on the Eagles, Jeremy Maclin is the No. 11 overall receiver in fantasy points per game. Maclin also leads the team in targets on the season, suggesting he's quietly overtaken Jackson as Vick's No. 1 option in the passing game.
Fantasy owners should have trouble trusting Brent Celek as a fantasy starter despite back-to-back productive games (4-42-1, 7-94-1). It's an issue of middling talent with Celek, and he's only the fourth or fifth option in Philly's passing attack. If there is a team against whom Celek can stay hot for another week, however, it's probably the Bears. Chicago's zone defense has been burned for productive games by Jermichael Finley (7-85-3), Greg Olsen (5-50-1), Brandon Pettigrew (4-39-1), Jimmy Graham (6-79), and Tony Gonzalez (5-72) at the tight end position, giving up lots of cushion over the middle. ... The Eagles lead the NFC in time of possession, a stat that benefits LeSean McCoy more than any player on the roster. Usually pass-happy coach Andy Reid's offense is as balanced as it's ever been. Whereas Philadelphia ran the football on only 43.3% of its plays last year, the percentage has jumped to 47.1 this year, and the Eagles rank fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts. The No. 2-ranked running back in fantasy football, McCoy is on pace for career highs in carries (309), rushing yards (1,724), all-purpose touchdowns (23), and yards per rushing attempt (5.59). And barring injury, McCoy is simply playing too well for those numbers to sharply regress.
The Eagles' defense has flashed competitiveness against the run by stiffening its "Wide-9" scheme in the front four. It still got touched up for an 8.5 yards-per-carry average by Cowboys rushers last week, and Matt Forte has confirmed himself matchup proof with at least 120 yards in matchups with top-seven run defenses of Atlanta and Minnesota. In terms of YPC allowed, the Eagles still have the fifth-worst defense in football. Forte will continue to be his offense's centerpiece on Monday night. ... The Bears seemed to remedy their pass protection problems before the bye, but it's going to be put to a major test at The Linc. Philadelphia ranks sixth in the league in sacks, and Nnamdi Asomugha has picked it up since a slow start. The Eagles essentially took Dez Bryant (3-28) and Miles Austin (3-27) out of last week's game with physical press coverage and an attacking mentality up front. On paper at least, this is a mismatch for the Bears' passing offense. Jay Cutler is a QB2 against Philly's top-ten pass defense, and Roy Williams is unlikely to create separation with Asomugha in his face at the line. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett remain uninspiring options.
Score Prediction: Eagles 34, Bears 13
1:00PM ET Games
NY Jets @ Buffalo
There's something inherently appealing about high-volume power backs coming off bye weeks, and it will be a recurring theme in this column with Shonn Greene, LeGarrette Blount, and Michael Turner all returning from Week 8 open dates. Greene was just beginning to heat up before the week off, largely because he's received at least 21 touches in three straight games. In his last meeting with Buffalo, Greene racked up 117 yards on 22 carries in one of the best performances of his career to date. Unlike the Redskins last week, the Jets will stick to the run even if they fall behind. The Bills rank 20th in run defense and give up 4.91 yards per carry, so this is a favorable matchup for a fresh-legged back who may finally be hitting his stride. ... In their last five games, the Bills have allowed 28 receptions for 380 yards and three touchdowns to tight ends, good for a 5.6-catch, 76-yard weekly average. From that perspective, Dustin Keller has a pretty encouraging matchup. Unfortunately, Keller hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 2 or exceeded 53 yards since Week 3. Keller would be a strong bye-week fallback option, but he isn't a top-10 player at his position.
Plaxico Burress created buzz with three Week 7 touchdowns, just before the bye. All three scores came inside the Chargers' five-yard line. Burress makes for an excellent red-zone target because he's 6-foot-5 and 232 pounds, but the story hasn't changed. Averaging under three catches for 35 yards a game, Plax will hurt you if he doesn't find the end zone. ... Santonio Holmes is New York's top playmaker and the No. 1 option in the passing game, so it's reasonable to speculate that Jets coaches emphasized finding ways to get him the football during the bye. Holmes disappointingly ranks 32nd in fantasy receiver scoring. “He’s getting open,” one AFC scout told the New York Daily News this week. “He’s a game changer. But they’re not feeding him.” The Jets must change that. ... Buffalo's numerical pass defense ranking (No. 24) makes it seem weak on paper, but the Bills lead the league in interceptions (14) and only four defenses have lower passer ratings against. Buffalo has been sparked by the insertion of rookie Marcell Dareus at nose tackle, and OLB Shawne Merriman's year-ending Achilles' injury has been addition by subtraction because Arthur Moats is playing more. Ultimately, this isn't a good matchup for Mark Sanchez. He's just a QB2.
This is a game likely to be dominated by running game and defense. I'm taking the under on the projected 44 points. … The best bet for a score on either side is No. 3 overall fantasy back Fred Jackson. Since Week 1, opposing tailbacks have touched up the Jets for six touchdowns and 783 yards on 172 carries (4.55 YPC), while Jackson is averaging 159.5 total yards per game with six scores over the same span. No running back in football has more gains of 20-plus yards this season. ... The Jets' pass defense is a near-impenetrable force, making all Bills passing-game members dicey Week 9 fantasy propositions. The Darrelle Revis-led unit is allowing NFL lows in passer rating (60.5) and touchdown passes (4). In his last three games against the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed just 41-of-83 throws (49.4%) for 378 yards (4.55 YPA). It's very hard to imagine starting Fitzpatrick in a standard fantasy league this week. He's more of a low-end QB2.
According to STATS INC., quarterbacks have a 2.9 rating when throwing at Darrelle Revis this season. Revis has allowed 10 catches and no touchdowns. Stevie Johnson posted serviceable lines of 5-72 and 3-31-1 in two 2010 matchups with the Jets, but Revis did not play in either game and Johnson, at the time, was not established as Buffalo's No. 1 receiver. Lee Evans (1-6, DNP) was widely held in higher regard, so the Jets assigned Antonio Cromartie to him. With deep threat Donald Jones returning from an ankle injury, David Nelson will likely man the slot again with Johnson as the top candidate for Revis' coverage. ... It is worth noting that Nelson caught a team-high four passes for 75 yards in his lone 2010 game against the Jets, despite playing under 20 snaps. He's a full-time player now. While Nelson has underwhelmed this season, he projects to have the most favorable matchup in the Bills' receiver corps. If Johnson draws Revis and Jones gets Antonio Cromartie, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Nelson will square off with a combo of slot CB Kyle Wilson (5'10/190), linebackers, and safeties. I like Nelson's chances of leading Buffalo in receiving in this game. ... As pointed out by Rotoworld targets maven Chet Gresham on Wednesday, 40% of Bills TE Scott Chandler's receptions are going for touchdowns this season. It's an unsustainable rate, but realistically there aren't a dozen better tight end plays in a TD-heavy fantasy league.
Score Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 17
Seattle @ Dallas
Back-to-back lopsided games, one in Dallas' favor and the other not, have adversely affected the Cowboys' passing-game production over the last two weeks. Jason Garrett's team shelled the Rams 34-7 in Week 7, finishing with a 34:24 run-to-pass ratio. In Week 8, the Cowboys were dismissed by the Eagles 34-7, losing the time-of-possession battle 42:09 to 17:51 -- the most decisive edge in Philly history since 1994. I'd be hard pressed to hold either game against Tony Romo when setting my Week 9 fantasy lineup. Seattle ranks last in time of possession and is the NFL's toughest team to run against on a per-play basis. It's a golden opportunity for Romo to attack with the pass. These are the only quarterbacks I'd play over Romo in Week 9: Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Eli Manning. With Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford on a bye, Romo is a top-six option at his position. ... Jason Witten is the No. 3 overall fantasy tight end, behind only Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. The Seahawks don't present a difficult matchup, allowing an average of 62 weekly yards to Bengals, Giants, and Browns tight ends over the past three games. Witten should be locked into lineups.
Seahawks CBs Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman played an impressively physical Week 8 game against Bengals receivers A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson, holding each under 65 yards. Both players still found pay dirt, and the step up to Miles Austin and Dez Bryant is considerable. This is a plus matchup for both Dallas wideouts. Pass attempts are sure to be up this week, and Garrett can't help but know his offense operates at peak performance only when Austin and Bryant are the featured players. ... Laurent Robinson is the Cowboys' flanker in three-receiver sets, moving Austin inside to the slot. While Robinson has earned fantasy consideration with 100 yards in two of his last four games, he's bound for inconsistency as the No. 4 option in the passing game. I wouldn't start him. ... We'll continue to learn more about rookie DeMarco Murray in Week 9. Another full workload is in store, but Seattle fields the stingiest run defense in football on a per-play basis. While Murray continues to excel when the Cowboys get him in space, he lacks wiggle and natural power inside the tackles. The Seahawks' defense penetrates backfields as consistently as any unit in the NFL.
Perhaps Marshawn Lynch is playing hurt? There wasn't a worse running back on an NFL football field last week, Chris Johnson included. On numerous occasions against the Bengals, Lynch stopped moving his feet, a fundamental no-no hammered into tailbacks in Pop Warner. Lynch averaged a season-low 1.5 YPC on 16 attempts. If the coaching staff takes the game tape seriously, Leon Washington will start this week. The Cowboys rank fourth in rush defense, so this was always going to be an impossible matchup for a talent-less runner. ... Another takeaway from watching Cincinnati-Seattle was Tarvaris Jackson's habitual locking onto Sidney Rice. It shows up in the target numbers, too. Jackson's pass target distribution after replacing Charlie Whitehurst in Week 8: Rice 10, Doug Baldwin 8, Zach Miller 4, Ben Obomanu 3. For this game, I'd feel good about Rice's matchup with Cowboys LCB Terence Newman. ... Big Mike Williams' return from a hamstring pull could render Obomanu a part-time player. Neither is start-able. ... Baldwin is an excellent young slot receiver and the second best fantasy bet on Seattle's roster, but he's been maddeningly inconsistent. Baldwin has 73-plus yards in 4-of-7 games. In the other three, he has 23, 4, and 0.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Seahawks 13
Cleveland @ Houston
Averaging 29 weekly touches since retaking Houston's backfield from Ben Tate, Arian Foster has scored five TDs and averaged 162 total yards in five games. The Browns' defense has been competitive against the run this season, but was shredded for 160 yards and a touchdown on 34 carries (4.71 YPC) by 49ers backs last week. Cleveland ranks second in against the pass, so it's pretty clear which part of the defense the Texans should game plan to attack, particularly with Andre Johnson (hamstring) still out. With Adrian Peterson on a bye, Foster is the best fantasy running back play in the league this week. ... Matt Schaub has a difficult matchup with Cleveland's No. 2 run defense. While Schaub has done well to post a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 289-yard average in Johnson's four missed games, he's still only a borderline fantasy starter. Look for the Texans to go run-heavy in this one, limiting Schaub's pass attempts. I'd consider Schaub's Week 9 ceiling to be around 250 yards with two scores. In fantasy points per game, he's the No. 11 quarterback and not playing nearly as well as the numbers suggest.
Jacoby Jones has a better matchup than Kevin Walter, who is likely to see more of Joe Haden in coverage. Jones, though, is far from a trustworthy WR3. His four lines starting in place of Johnson this year: 1-9, 4-76-1, 2-27, 3-59. Jones isn't a terrible fantasy start, but it would probably be an upset if he exceeded four catches. ... Walter most often lines up at RWR, so he projects to face off with LCB Haden on the majority of plays. According to Pro Football Focus, Haden has allowed just 15-of-37 pass attempts (40.5%) against him to be complete this season for 212 yards (5.73 YPA) and one touchdown. The lone score occurred in Week 1, when Bengals fill-in QB Bruce Gradkowski called a quick snap with Cleveland's defense still in its huddle. Rookie A.J. Green was unguarded for the 41-yard TD. ... Schaub's target distribution over the last month (with no Andre Johnson): Walter 27, Jones 27, Owen Daniels 25, Derrick Mason 8. ... The Browns have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends with a weekly average of four catches for 49 yards, despite having faced a weak slate of players at the position. I like Daniels' chances of scoring in this one.
With Montario Hardesty out indefinitely, the Browns need Peyton Hillis back desperately. Chris Ogbonnaya was brutal in relief last week, managing 37 yards on 11 carries (3.36 YPC) with a fumble and was consistently stopped dead in his tracks. Ogbonnaya also dropped a pass and contributed to two Colt McCoy sacks with blown blitz pickups. Hillis may have a tough matchup with Houston's top-six run defense, but he should get large amounts of touches and snaps because players like Ogbonnaya lose games for their teams. ... McCoy's weak arm is killing Greg Little's fantasy value. Little makes virtually all of his catches on obvious passing downs in the slot, a high-traffic area where his after-catch skills go to waste with more defenders in the vicinity. McCoy can't connect outside the numbers, where Little sees one-on-one coverage and could go the distance after a broken tackle. Little is being force-fed with 30 targets over the past three weeks, so he's worthy of a WR3 start in 12-team leagues. But teammates are curbing his upside.
UPDATE: Hillis appeared to aggravate his hamstring injury in Friday’s practice, heaving away his helmet in frustration after a running drill. He’s unlikely to play in Week 9. Ogbonnaya should be grabbed in all leagues because he projects to receive 14-17 touches in Houston, and probably has a realistic chance to start against the Rams in Week 10.
Evan Moore's playing time went back in the gutter with Ben Watson playing a full game in Week 8. Jordan Norwood got more action in four-receiver sets, and it's now clear that Moore's usage depends heavily on Watson's availability. Moore was targeted twice, gaining 17 yards. ... Watson is scoreless since Week 4 and hasn't topped 64 yards all year. He's 18th in weekly fantasy points among tight ends. ... Here is McCoy's target distribution since the Browns' Week 5 bye: Little 30, Watson 15, Joshua Cribbs 14, Moore 11, Mohamed Massaquoi 9, Norwood 6. Massaquoi and Watson's targets have been affected by concussions, but I'd still have rouble trusting any Cleveland pass catcher behind Little in a fantasy league. ... The Texans rank fifth in the league against the pass. McCoy is the No. 15 fantasy quarterback and a clear-cut QB2. Long term, it's not a good sign for McCoy that he ranks second in the league in attempts per game, but 19th in passing yards. Cleveland will be in the hunt for a true franchise passer this offseason.
Score Prediction: Texans 23, Browns 16
San Francisco @ Washington
It shouldn't come as much of a surprise, but the Vegas oddsmakers have no confidence in either of these teams' offenses. The Niners-Skins' 37-point over/under is easily the lowest of Week 9. Here are some telling Redskins stats from John Keim of the Washington Examiner: In Mike Shanahan's 23 games as coach, the Skins have scored 20 or more points a pathetic eight times. They've reached 30 once. Through seven games this year, no Redskins wideout has topped 76 yards. The 49ers' defense is easily the best Washington has faced all season, so more tough sledding is likely. ... John Beck's target distribution since replacing Rex Grossman: Fred Davis 21, Jabar Gaffney 17, Terrence Austin 10, Anthony Armstrong 8. ... Davis remains an every-week starter, but there isn't a confident fantasy play beyond him. Gaffney offers no big-play ability and has a difficult matchup. Playing like a deer in headlights when blitzed last week, Beck was sacked an otherworldly 10 times by a Buffalo defense that entered Week 8 with four sacks, total, in six games. The Niners rank seventh in sacks (21). ... Waiver acquisition Tashard Choice (hamstring, shoulder) won't play this week. Ryan Torain presumably projects as the Redskins' lead back, but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if he lost his job after averaging 1.55 YPC in the last three games. Rookie Roy Helu hasn't topped four touches in a game since Week 4. Against San Francisco's No. 1 run defense, it's an obvious situation to avoid.
During Tuesday's chat, a Rotoworld reader asked me if I thought Frank Gore's turnaround was legit. Remember, Gore averaged 2.51 yards per carry in Weeks 1-3, a number that has ballooned to 6.51 since, with at least 125 rushing yards and a touchdown in each of the last four games. The answer is a confident Yes. Not taking away anything from Gore, but San Francisco's offense is incredibly running back-friendly. Just as he did at Stanford when Toby Gerhart led the NCAA in rushing -- Gerhart was the featured player in the Cardinal offense, not Andrew Luck -- Harbaugh combines a moving wall of seven linemen in constant two-tight end sets with dynamic rookie lead blocker Bruce Miller clearing aside oncoming linebackers and safeties. From right to left tackle, four of the Niners' five starting offensive linemen are former top-40 draft picks, and center Jonathan Goodwin was a Pro Bowler in 2009. The offense ferociously mauls opponents in the trenches. I don't see Gore slowing down much barring injury, and this certainly isn't an imposing matchup. Washington ranks 21st against the run and allows 4.53 yards a carry. In Week 8, Fred Jackson racked up 194 total yards against the Redskins while averaging 6.69 yards per touch.
The Skins are far more effective in pass than run defense, allowing an NFC-low seven passing scores and racking up 23 sacks to rank fifth in the league. The 49ers' weakness is the passing game, and Harbaugh has conceded as much by engineering an offense producing the NFL's fewest pass attempts. Just once this season has Alex Smith exceeded 201 yards. He doesn't at all resemble a fantasy starter. ... Michael Crabtree has been San Francisco's most productive receiver in the last two games, but it's hard to envision how he'd maintain reliable numbers with all of the 49ers' pass catchers healthy. Vernon Davis is just as good a bet for weekly touchdowns and receptions, and Braylon Edwards has the most big-play ability in the wideout corps. Ride Crabtree while he's hot, but inconsistency seems inevitable. ... The Redskins have held enemy tight ends to an average of 37.7 yards per week over the last month and a half. I still couldn't bring myself to bench Davis after Bills tight end Scott Chandler scored twice against Washington in Week 8.
Score Prediction: 49ers 19, Redskins 13
Miami @ Kansas City
If 0-7 Miami has one thing going right this year, it's an ability to inhibit ground attacks. In their last three games, the Dolphins have allowed 278 yards on 78 carries (3.56 YPC) to enemy tailbacks, none of whom has scored. This is far from a pushover matchup for Jackie Battle, but his workload consistency (16-plus carries in three straight games) and newfound handle on goal-line duties (he scored from a yard out in Week 8, while Week 7 vulture Le'Ron McClain didn't carry the ball once) makes Battle a respectable RB2/flex option regardless of opponent. ... Over the past two games, Battle has played 81 snaps and received 35 touches. Dexter McCluster has 53 snaps and 20 touches, although he's generated a measly 63 yards (3.15 per-play average). Thomas Jones has 29 snaps and 14 touches. McCluster is an RB4 in PPR and off the radar in standard scoring. Jones remains a total non-factor. ... Matt Cassel has done well to "game manage" back-to-back Chiefs wins, but his 1:4 TD-to-INT ratio isn't going to cut it as a fantasy starter, even in the most favorable of matchups. Do use Cassel in a two-QB league. The Dolphins rank 27th against the pass, surrendering 14 passing scores compared to just two interceptions through seven games.
A matchup nightmare in the slot, first-round pick Jonathan Baldwin exploded for 82 yards and a touchdown on five Week 8 catches while Steve Breaston (3-42) took a backseat. Baldwin's playing time did not noticeably increase from Week 7, and it's hard to imagine the rookie emerging as a consistent scorer as a No. 3 receiver in the NFL's No. 28 passing offense. All that said, it's quite possible that Baldwin will unseat Steve Breaston as Cassel's No. 2 option, even if he's not a "starter." There's no question that Baldwin possesses superior physical tools. ... Working against both Breaston and Baldwin are the facts that the Chiefs rank 30th in throws per game and produce a weekly average of just 184.1 passing yards. The shortage of volume could easily lead to a situation where Breaston and Baldwin swap productive weeks back and forth. Neither is a threat to overtake Dwayne Bowe as Kansas City's most targeted receiver. ... Dolphins LCB Vontae Davis (hamstring) will likely miss another week, improving Bowe's Week 9 matchup. Bowe plays the majority of snaps at flanker, the position Davis almost always covers.
Matt Moore has settled in as a bad quarterback, and there's really little else to say. His updated stats in his last ten games: 147-of-258 (57.0%) for 1,563 yards (6.06 YPA), six touchdowns, and 14 interceptions with 26 sacks taken. His teams are 1-9. ... The Dolphins move Brandon Marshall all around the formation, so he will see action against LCB Brandon Flowers, RCB Brandon Carr, and slot CB Javier Arenas. While Marshall has struggled to get behind defenses in recent games, he's maintained a weekly average of 77 yards on 5.4 catches for the season. ... Davone Bess is on pace to catch 62 passes for 739 yards this year, both lows since 2008. He hasn't scored a touchdown. You'd have to be in a deep league to consider him. ... Daniel Thomas (hamstring) will be a game-time decision for Week 9 after practicing on a limited basis all week. The Dolphins have made a consistent effort to get Thomas 20 or more touches when he's on the field. With Thomas out in Week 8, Reggie Bush stepped up for 120 total yards on 19 touches. Lex Hilliard only got the ball twice, and Steve Slaton was oddly the goal-line back. The Chiefs present a mediocre running back matchup, ranking 22nd versus the run but yielding only 4.07 yards a carry.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Dolphins 10
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
The Rams assembled a Week 8 blueprint for opponents to take down the mighty Saints, and it doesn't involve letting a quarterback go toe to toe with Drew Brees in a shootout. Steven Jackson either ran the football or was targeted in the passing game on 17 of St. Louis' initial 35 offensive snaps in the 31-21 upset of the year. While LeGarrette Blount doesn't offer nearly the receiving prowess of S-Jax, a healthy Blount is the key to victory for Tampa, and there's no doubt that the Bucs' coaching staff knows it. The Saints' defense is allowing a league-high 5.46 yards per carry. His legs fresh after a 28-day layoff, Blount needs to be the centerpiece of the Week 9 game plan, and there are indications that will be the case with Tampa Bay pledging to use Blount as a true every-down back. Blount has not played in passing situations to this point in his two-year career. ... Kellen Winslow hasn't scored or exceeded 43 receiving yards in any of his last three games against the Saints, and ranks a lowly 20th in fantasy tight end scoring, behind the likes of Ben Watson and Jared Cook. Winslow is little more than a desperation bye-week replacement option.
Josh Freeman hasn't played well enough for QB1 consideration, but two-QB leaguers should note his history against New Orleans. In their last three meetings, Freeman has gone 63-of-110 for 777 yards (7.06 YPA), five TDs, and no picks. It's quality QB2 production. ... Mike Williams had his year-best game just before the Week 8 bye, avoiding a drop for the first time since Week 2 and posting a season-high 75 yards on six receptions. During the open date, it's conceivable that the Bucs emphasized scheming to get their best playmaker the ball more. Williams primarily plays split end and in the slot, so he'll match up with RCB Patrick Robinson and slot CB Tracy Porter for most of this game. Porter has been New Orleans' weak link in coverage. ... In Week 7, Dezmon Briscoe played 52-of-72 snaps (72.2%) compared to Arrelious Benn's 21 (29.2%). Benn claims Briscoe played more based on in-game formations, but neither is a reliable fantasy contributor. ... With Sammie Stroughter returning, slot man Preston Parker's playing time may suffer. Stroughter is Tampa's top slot receiver, but has been out since Week 1 with a foot injury.
The Saints will be out for blood after last week's embarrassing loss to St. Louis. A major factor in the defeat was LE Chris Long's manhandling of RT Charles Brown, who suffered a season-ending hip injury in the game, and journeyman fill-in Pat McQuistan. Long bum rushed the duo for three sacks, causing melee whenever Drew Brees dropped back to pass. It's terrific news, then, that Saints starting RT Zach Strief is back from his sprained MCL this week. Brees has been lethal at home, compiling an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 75.9 completion rate, and 322-yard average in three games at Superdome this season. The Saints have won all three. ... The Rams used a zone defense to keep Marques Colston and the Saints' deep threat receivers at bay last week, and Tampa typically employs a similar strategy. It just hasn't worked against Colston in the past. In his last five games against the Bucs, Colston has an 86-yard average and at least five receptions in all five. His best performance against Tampa came earlier this year, when Colston busted up the secondary for seven catches, 118 yards, and a touchdown. It's hard not to like Colston's chances at a bounce-back game.
Lance Moore is plenty capable of games like last week's (7-74-1), but the performance was very much affected by the Rams' coverage strategy discussed above. Brees peppered Moore with 10 targets, virtually all of them over the middle and near the line of scrimmage. While I'd take my chances with Moore long before Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson, Moore is hardly an "emerging" player. He played the fewest snaps in the Saints' receiver corps last week. Moore is inconsistent in fantasy because his usage is inconsistent in his team's offense, and there are many mouths to feed. ... Jimmy Graham is the No. 1 overall tight end in fantasy football and had 124 yards in his last matchup with the Bucs. Start 'em. ... Tampa Bay ranks 23rd against the run, serving up 4.55 yards per carry. This is a favorable matchup for the Saints' rushing attack. I'd want to start Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, shaking off last week's performances against the Rams. Thomas scored on a three-yard carry in the second quarter at St. Louis while Sproles led the backfield in yards. Though Mark Ingram (heel) will be out again, Chris Ivory needs to show he's a bigger part of the offense to be trusted in fantasy leagues. He played six Week 8 snaps.
Score Prediction: Saints 37, Bucs 23
Atlanta @ Indianapolis
The Falcons rank seventh in run defense with a front seven fresh coming off a bye, creating a prohibitive situation for fantasy owners of Colts tailbacks. Joseph Addai (hamstring) is healthier after sitting out Week 8, and Indianapolis employed a two-way timeshare in Addai's absence against the Titans. Delone Carter started and operated as the Colts' feature runner for two-plus quarters. Indy fell behind by two touchdowns, and third-down back Donald Brown promptly took over in pass-heavy comeback mode. Carter finished with 11 touches in 50 snaps. Brown played only 32 snaps, but similarly got the ball 11 times and scored a fourth-quarter touchdown from four yards out. While Carter has emerged as the Colts' top week-to-week backfield fantasy bet, he's not a realistic candidate for more than 10-14 touches in an unfavorable matchup. The situation, ideally, would be avoided in fantasy leagues. Addai remains Indianapolis' starter when healthy, and is coming off a full week of practice. He’s going to play against the Falcons.
I broke down Colts-Titans play by play this week in order to get a clearer grasp of Curtis Painter's passing-game tendencies. The target numbers have screamed that Pierre Garcon is far and away the team's No. 1 receiver, and the game tape reinforces the notion. Painter dropped back 58 times in Nashville, and on a whopping 25 of them Garcon appeared to be Painter's first read. Reggie Wayne was first on 14 occasions, with 10 for Austin Collie and 7 for Dallas Clark. Donald Brown and Delone Carter had one apiece. This has roughly been the case throughout Painter's six appearances (five starts). Going forward, look for WR2/3 value from Garcon. Wayne is no more than a low-end WR3. ... Collie (5-44) and Clark (6-77) both set season-highs for receiving yards against the Titans in large part because Painter threw a year-most 49 times in the blowout loss. Falling behind early is a possibility against Atlanta, but it's not a bankable fantasy situation.
Game watchers noticed Michael Turner slowing down before Atlanta's Week 8 bye, even if it isn't apparent in his stats or usage. Turner would theoretically be an advised sell high, but not this week. The 29 1/2-year-old's legs will be fresh after an open date, and Turner has totaled 204 yards and an incredible five touchdowns on 46 carries (4.43 YPC) in his last two post-bye games. Turner has also led the NFL in carries in two of the past three seasons and ranks in the top five in rushing attempts per game this year, so he's probably more likely to benefit from in-season rest than most backs in the league. Since Indianapolis ranks 31st against the run, this was always going to be an enticing matchup. ... Tony Gonzalez has "earned" an every-week start by ranking sixth among tight ends in fantasy points per game, but the Colts' defense has posed a forbidding matchup for players at Gonzo's position. Through eight games, Indy has allowed a grand total of 326 yards and three touchdowns on 36 catches to tight ends. It's a 4.5-catch, 41-yard average.
In their last four games, the Colts' defense has been shredded for an 11:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 1,070 yards on 129 throws (8.29 YPA), and a 77.5 completion rate by Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Andy Dalton, and Drew Brees. Atlanta may employ a run-first approach Sunday, but it shouldn't deter fantasy owners from using Roddy White or a now-healthy Julio Jones. The Falcons' offense projects to be highly efficient because the Indianapolis defense just can't stop anyone. (Except, oddly, tight ends.) ... Jones has a particularly good-looking matchup because he’s Atlanta’s biggest receiver and the Colts’ smallish secondary routinely struggles against large, physical wideouts. … Matt Ryan ranks 14th in fantasy quarterback points, confirming himself as a QB2 only. And the schedule only stiffens from here. After squaring off with the Colts' No. 22 pass defense, Ryan gets just one more matchup with a pass defense ranked lower than 17th. He faces the Saints (No. 11 pass defense) twice, Jaguars (No. 8), and Texans (5) with the Titans (17) and Vikings (29) mixed in. At the season's midway point, the takeaway for Ryan is that he may purely lack the talent to be an elite fantasy quarterback. Ryan has never possessed top-end arm strength or athleticism, and the latter deficiency has been exposed by a descending offensive line.
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Colts 17
4:05PM ET Games
Denver @ Oakland
Darren McFadden is still on crutches recovering from his mid-foot sprain, so the Raiders will hold him out of Week 9 in hopes of DMC returning for next Thursday night's clash with San Diego. The starter against Denver will be Michael Bush, with rookie Taiwan Jones in line for 5-8 touches as Bush's change of pace. In Bush's three starts last season, he averaged 27 touches for 122 total yards per game, with a pair of touchdowns. Bush can pick up oncoming blitzers and is an adept receiver, so he projects as an every-down back against Denver's No. 17 run defense. Volume is the key for Bush. Across the league, there won't be many safer bets for at least 20 carries week. ... Including the preseason, Jones has touched the ball 24 times for 161 yards (6.71 average) in nine appearances as a pro. While Jones probably won't exceed 4-5 carries or 2-3 catches against the Broncos, the big-play ability makes him worth a look for fantasy owners desperate at a flex position. A skinny, linear runner, Jones drew Jamaal Charles comparisons coming out of Eastern Washington but plays more like Jerious Norwood. He will be tough to handle in open space.
The Raiders' Week 9 game plan will likely be geared to "protect" Carson Palmer with a run-heavy approach until he begins to feel comfortable on the field and making high-velocity throws in critical situations. The run will be used to set up the pass. We don't know whom Champ Bailey will "shadow" in this game, but opponents have typically assigned top cover men to Denarius Moore despite Darrius Heyward-Bey's four-game streak of 82-plus yards. Moore lines up most often on the right side of the formation, squaring off with left cornerbacks. Bailey, by nature, is a left corner. I'd struggle to use Moore in a fantasy league based both on his recent lack of productivity and Bailey's potential coverage. ... Heyward-Bey is averaging 5.5 catches for 96 yards during his hot run. While it's smart to be wary of considering DHB a reliable week-to-week fantasy starter, this matchup is right and he'll be the Raiders' best bet for catches and receiving yards in Week 9. ... 34-year-old T.J. Houshmandzadeh's tank is on E, but Hue Jackson still saw fit to add him to a receiver corps that otherwise lacked true possession threats. Houshmandzadeh's addition sucks the life out of Jacoby Ford's fantasy appeal. Ford has been Oakland's slot receiver all year, and that's the position Housh now projects to play. ... TE Kevin Boss' greatest strength is run blocking, and he figures to do quite a bit of that Sunday. He's not worth a roster spot in 12-team leagues.
There are two ways to view Tim Tebow's Week 9 start. The glass-half empty, if more realistic approach says Tebow is at risk of an in-game benching after going 31-of-66 (47.0%) for 333 yards (5.05 YPA) in his last two games. The glass-half full take looks to Tebow's Week 15 start in The Black Hole last year. Tebow racked up 138 yards passing and 78 rushing, scoring once in the air and once on the ground to finish with 23.3 standard league fantasy points. Tebow is an extremely risky, if high-upside fantasy play and will remain so as the coaching staff evaluates him on a start-by-start basis. In Tebow's case, matchups don't matter. He must show an improved ability to pick up first downs and move the chains in order to keep his position. ... The Broncos' receiver corps is shaping up as a total tossup with Tebow struggling. Demaryius Thomas was Tebow's preferred option in Week 7, seeing 10 targets and securing three for 27 yards and a touchdown. Last week, Thomas dropped to 10 yards on one catch and three targets while Eddie Royal emerged as the Broncos' target leader (13). Tebow threw Eric Decker's way 12 times, and the two connected on six occasions for a team-high 72 yards and a touchdown. Your guess is as good as mine.
Denver writers anticipate Willis McGahee returning ahead of schedule from hand surgery. Coach John Fox described the situation as a pain-tolerance issue while praising McGahee's toughness Thursday. We'll have more updates on McGahee by Friday evening and into Sunday morning, but for now he should be considered a risky, low-end RB2. The broken hand is likely enough to keep McGahee off the field on all passing downs, and the Broncos may ease him back in a rotation with Knowshon Moreno and Lance Ball. The Raiders' defense is fresh coming off a bye, and in their Week 1 matchup held Broncos rushers to 38 scoreless yards on 13 carries. If you buy into the notion that Denver will be playing from behind in this game, McGahee won't be a good fantasy start. The Broncos' offense changed while McGahee was out to cater to Tebow, and it isn't necessarily a given that he'll play more snaps than Moreno if Denver continues to go shotgun on 70% of plays.
Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Broncos 20
Cincinnati @ Tennessee
The Titans have held up the rear in the NFL's rushing offense ranks for several weeks, and their passing offense is beginning to circle the drain as well. With Kenny Britt on I.R. and Chris Johnson already calling it a season, Tennessee has no playmakers left on offense. Not helping matters is a matchup with a Bengals team that ranks fourth in total defense, ninth against the pass, and second versus the run. It's hard to envision much Titans scoring. ... Try watching Johnson's Week 8 runs with Bloopers Music in the background. It's sickeningly hilarious. He's the only member of the offense simply not trying. The Titans had no choice but to turn the backfield over to Javon Ringer against the Colts, and he easily out-produced Johnson (102 total yards compared to C.J.'s 51) while dominating playing time with Tennessee protecting a lead. Ringer played 17 fourth-quarter snaps, and the "starter" Johnson played two. While Ringer offers limited talent, he can play on all three downs and gives the Titans their best chance to win. Unless Johnson turns it around -- and I have lost hope -- Ringer should lead the backfield in touches the rest of the way.
Matt Hasselbeck is averaging an Alex Smith-like 202.5 passing yards per game since losing Britt for the year. In such a difficult matchup, he can't be more than a QB2. ... Damian Williams can get it done as a possession receiver, but struggles to separate downfield. He's a low-upside WR3. ... The Titans are at least making an effort to get the ball in Nate Washington's hands. He scored on a three-yard carry in Week 8 and also caught a 14-yard touchdown pass. Washington has proven a highly inconsistent player even when given an opportunity at a featured role, but the Titans view Washington as their No. 1 receiver and will continue to try to feed him. ... Playcaller Chris Palmer does have a potential playmaker in tight end Jared Cook, but Cook continues to be extremely under-utilized. He played enough to be targeted just twice in Week 8, catching both for 40 yards.
The Titans' defense has taken a nosedive since its fast start, getting pummeled for 79 combined points by the Steelers and Texans before last week's relief effort from the Colts. It's certainly not a fearsome unit as Tennessee may have appeared during the season's first month. After ranking sixth in per-game rushing attempts during the first month and a half, Cedric Benson's legs are fresh coming off a two-week layoff due to a bye and one-game suspension. He'll resume his usual role as a 20-carry runner against Tennessee's 27th-ranked run defense, making for a nice RB2 situation. ... Bernard Scott held his own against Seattle last week, but the Bengals have never made him a serious part of weekly game plans. He's just a handcuff going forward. ... In my game review of Bengals-Seahawks, I noted that Andy Dalton's arm is probably stronger than given credit. It's obviously not Matthew Stafford-caliber, but heads-and-shoulders better than someone like Colt McCoy's. While I'm skeptical that Dalton will ever be more than a fantasy QB2, he's done well to keep all of the Bengals' pass catchers afloat. Dalton has five touchdowns in his last three games and now takes on Tennessee's middling, 17th-ranked pass defense.
In other words, owners should no longer hold A.J. Green's rookie quarterback against him. Green has either a touchdown or over 100 yards in 6-of-7 games. He's the No. 6 overall fantasy receiver. In this game, Green has the best matchup of any Bengals wideout. He'll go against Titans LCB Jason McCourty for the majority of the day. ... Jermaine Gresham (hamstring) is not expected to play Sunday and may be limited if he does. Gresham has encountered setbacks and is not on the Week 9 fantasy radar. Look for journeyman Donald Lee to see more time at tight end. ... Jerome Simpson's consistency remains an issue with two games over 100 yards and the rest all under 45. He'll face off with RCB Cortland Finnegan on early downs against Tennessee, and nickel back Alterraun Verner in passing sets. Both have played exceptionally well in coverage this season.
Score Prediction: Bengals 17, Titans 16
4:15PM ET Games
NY Giants @ New England
Of all the games on the Week 8 schedule, Giants-Pats has the best chance to be a shootout with both quarterbacks hitting on all cylinders and the defenses underperforming. Trot out your studs, and don't think twice. ... ESPN's Merril Hoge, a controversial but reputable analyst for his heavy reliance on game tape, ranked his top-five NFL quarterbacks in today's game on SportsCenter this week. They were 1) Aaron Rodgers 2) Ben Roethlisberger 3) Tom Brady 4) Drew Brees 5) Cam Newton. I don't quibble with Hoge's rankings, but Eli Manning has to be an awfully close No. 6. In his last six games, Eli has completed 138-of-209 passes (66.0%) for 1,773 yards (8.48 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Since Week 3, his per-game yardage average is 334. The Patriots lost two of their top three cornerbacks last week, releasing Leigh Bodden and placing rookie starter Ras-I Dowling on injured reserve. New England ranks 32nd in pass defense and is tied for 24th in sacks. Manning has the best quarterback matchup in the league this week. ... Hakeem Nicks (hamstring) is not expected to play Sunday, leaving Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz as must-start WR2/3 options in a red-hot passing game with a plus matchup. Mario is the slight favorite for targets, and Cruz will get to play more at his natural outside receiver spot. This one isn't hard. If I owned Cruz and Manningham, I'd start them both.
Ramses Barden is tentatively expected to be activated from PUP and see action in the slot at New England. Barden can be a red-zone presence at a Plaxian 6-foot-6, 227, but will probably play no more than 20 snaps. ... Jake Ballard has settled in as a consistent if low-upside TE2 with at least 55 yards in three straight games. Ballard runs about a 4.85 forty and lacks big-play ability. ... Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, Ahmad Bradshaw will try to play against the Pats despite a crack in his chronically injured foot. The Giants will likely decide Bradshaw's status during pre-game warmups Sunday. In a late game, Bradshaw's availability probably won't be known until the afternoon, making him tough to count on if you're not a Brandon Jacobs owner, too. Monitor the situation into Sunday morning before setting your lineup. The Patriots rank ninth against the run, so it's not an especially favorable matchup regardless. ... Should Bradshaw miss the game, Brandon Jacobs would be on the hook for 16-20 touches in what may be a high-scoring affair. Jacobs would get the goal-line carries. D.J. Ware and Da'Rel Scott are change-of-pace and passing-down options.
Owners of Patriots skill players need to block out last week's game and start their studs against the Giants. New York ranks 13th against the pass and 28th against the run, so despite talented personnel this is hardly a shutdown defense. ... Tom Brady is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback with an 18:8 TD-to-INT ratio and 337-yard average through seven starts. He has multiple touchdowns in all but one game. ... Pittsburgh held Wes Welker under 40 yards last week by shadowing him with Ike Taylor, who has rarely covered the slot in his career. It was out of character for the Steelers. The Giants also never use CB Corey Webster against inside receivers, so the guess remains that Webster will be on Deion Branch for the majority of this game. Welker will play despite a neck injury and ranks second in the league in fantasy receiver scoring. ... In terms of fantasy points per game, Rob Gronkowski is the No. 2 tight end and Aaron Hernandez is No. 9. There's every reason to believe they're both top-ten fantasy plays at their position in this game.
Branch has either a touchdown or at least 69 yards on 6-of-7 games. While he's seemed to lack consistency, Branch is still a top-25 fantasy receiver. I don't own Branch, but if I did I'd consider him an every-week WR3. ... The Pats' already muddled backfield became even less predictable when Kevin Faulk came off the PUP list to lead New England's running backs in Week 8 touches and snaps. There's no way to tell whether that was a product of Bill Belichick's game planning, or something to expect going forward. Clearly, though, it has made Danny Woodhead (0 touches), Stevan Ridley (0 snaps), and Shane Vereen (inactive) fantasy non-factors for the moment. If I'm going to use a Patriots running back in Week 9, it would still be BenJarvus Green-Ellis. More often than not, "Law Firm" will be the favorite for carries and goal-line work. Stopping the run has been the Giants' weakness to this point in the season. Faulk is a 35-year-old passing-down specialist.
Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Giants 28
St. Louis @ Arizona
Preseason observations led me to believe Steven Jackson's demise was near. I'd never seen him run so slowly and struggle so much to get the corner. Perhaps it was post-lockout overanalysis, because S-Jax has been an animal in real games. As powerful as ever with plenty of remaining open-field acceleration, Jackson is averaging a career-high 5.35 yards per carry and has held up on four straight workloads of 21 or more touches. During his Week 8 destruction of New Orleans, Jackson had 13 gains of six or more yards and seven for double digits. Both of his touchdowns came from three yards out. Arizona has allowed a league-high 11 rushing scores this season, so look for Jackson to stay hot as a high-end RB2 this week. ... Brandon Lloyd's Week 8 game would've been much bigger had he not suffered a rare drop on the initial play of the fourth quarter that could've gone 76 yards for a touchdown. The Rams are moving Lloyd around the offensive formation in an effort to make him more difficult to defend, so he'll see plenty of both RCB Patrick Peterson and LCB A.J. Jefferson. Peterson has been obliterated in coverage all season, and Jefferson was benched for Richard Marshall last week after getting destroyed by Anquan Boldin.
The Rams are leaving their Week 9 quarterback up to a game-time decision. Danario Alexander (hamstring) will not play, so behind Jackson and Lloyd there isn't much fantasy hope for Rams skill players anyway. Brandon Gibson has proven to lack separation skills, catching two passes for 27 yards last week while drawing the start. Rookie Greg Salas has settled in as the team's slot receiver, coming off a five-catch, 47-yard game. Gibson isn't an option, and Salas offers scant upside in a WR3 slot even if Sam Bradford (ankle) plays. If not, A.J. Feeley would make a third straight start. As this is being written, my money would indeed be on Feeley starting the game.
I liked John Skelton as a small-school prospect coming out of Fordham two Aprils ago. He's got plenty of arm strength and is built like Joe Flacco. Accuracy has been a big issue for Skelton in the pros, however, and the Cardinals' coaching staff played undrafted rookie Max Hall over him last season. Even for as much as Kevin Kolb struggled before his foot injury, Skelton probably won't help the cause of any Arizona skill player. Pass protection problems won't suddenly go away. Kolb has taken 24 sacks, second most in the league behind Ben Roethlisberger. ... Look for the Cardinals to lean heavily on Beanie Wells as he takes on St. Louis' last-ranked run defense. Despite a knee ailment, Wells received 22 carries in Week 8 -- his second most all year -- and if coach Ken Whisehunt can help it, he won't leave the outcome of this game in Skelton's hands. ... In Skelton's four 2010 starts, Larry Fitzgerald averaged seven catches for 87 yards with one TD. The numbers are quite good and Fitzgerald is playing the Rams, so start him confidently. ... Early Doucet still hasn't supplanted Andre Roberts as a starter, even though he's out-produced him all year. Since the Week 6 bye, Doucet has played 55 snaps to Roberts' 118. With passing-game efficiency likely to drop in Arizona, Doucet is just a WR4/5. ... Rob Housler has been thoroughly unproductive, is now battling a groin injury, and Todd Heap (hamstring) still isn't 100%. Avoid the Arizona tight ends in fantasy.
Score Prediction: Rams 20, Cardinals 17
Green Bay @ San Diego
Pack-Bolts in sunny San Diego would normally have a shootout look, but not with the way the Chargers' offense is performing. San Diego's skill players can't even get on the practice field together, and tailback Ryan Mathews (groin) is not expected to play. I'd still want to see Philip Rivers play well in a game before trusting him as more than a QB2 in fantasy. Rivers leads the NFL in interceptions and has only seven touchdowns through seven games. He's the No. 19 quarterback after finishing in the top seven three straight years. After a half-season of struggles, I'd be skeptical that this is something he can "snap out of." ... Malcom Floyd missed two practices this week with a hip injury, and has under 60 yards in 5-of-7 games this year. He's found pay dirt once. In terms of cornerback-receiver matchups, expect to see Floyd square off with Packers RCB Tramon Williams for most of this one with a combo of Charles Woodson and Sam Shields on Vincent Jackson. Per Pro Football Focus, Williams has been targeted 38 times over the past five games, allowing 19 completions (50%). The catches have gone for 281 yards (7.4 YPA) without a single touchdown.
Antonio Gates played 75 snaps in Week 8. He doesn't appear to be 100 percent, but is healthy enough to be an every-down player. With nine catches for 127 yards and a score in two games since returning from the foot injury, Gates is an every-week fantasy starter. ... Mike Tolbert will handle a full workload against a Green Bay run defense that has flashed vulnerability since a hot start. The Packers are in good enough shape up front to hold Tolbert to 70-80 rushing yards, but he'll be a solid bet for a goal-line touchdown and 20-plus touches. The path to a huge role is cleared by Mathews' expected absence. Curtis Brinkley (concussion) won't play much, if he's active at all. ... Vincent Jackson has had three straight slow games, but dominant talent can't be left on fantasy benches. When he matches up with the aforementioned Shields, Jackson will boast a six-inch, 46-pound size advantage. The two will likely face each other often because Woodson is Green Bay's best option to cover Gates.
Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL in completion rate (71.5%), touchdown passes (20), yards-per-pass attempt (11.0), and passer rating (125.7). No quarterback has scored more fantasy points. ... While the Chargers have struggled to stop the run, they rank fourth in the league in pass defense and don't figure to allow four Packers pass catchers to burn them as other defenses have. James Jones plays significantly fewer snaps and sees fewer targets than Jermichael Finley, Jordy Nelson, and Greg Jennings, and will be difficult to trust because of this matchup. Jones only has one game over 63 yards this season. ... The Packers have used Quentin Jammer as a shadow corner for the last two games, so he'll likely track Jennings all around the formation. That would leave Jordy Nelson in rookie Marcus Gilchrist's coverage. Jennings is a WR1, Nelson a WR3.
It's scary to think that the Packers' passing game is hitting on all cylinders and Finley hasn't even hit his stride yet. The Chargers have allowed big games to Rob Gronkowski (4-86-2) and Aaron Hernandez (7-62-1) already this year, and in two other San Diego games Daniel Fells and Dustin Keller were the opposing team's top receiver. This isn't a prohibitive matchup, and the Packers may have tinkered with their offense during the Week 8 bye to emphasize getting Finley the ball more. He's a good trade target in fantasy leagues. Finley's ability has not diminished. ... John Kuhn only has 14 touches through seven games, but he's essentially made the Packers' backfield a three-way committee as the favorite for goal-line carries. James Starks hasn't scored since Week 1, and Ryan Grant hasn't reached the end zone all year. Starks still has the most value among Packers backs, but doesn’t get easy chances in scoring position, and there are no indications that Green Bay will get away from its rotational look. We may know more after this game because San Diego has been easy to run on all season.
Score Prediction: Packers 28, Chargers 20
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
In seven career matchups with the Ravens, Rashard Mendenhall has managed 376 yards on 126 carries (2.98 YPC). While Mendenhall has kept his fantasy scoring afloat with five touchdowns in the last five Ravens-Steelers games, it would be overly optimistic to expect lofty yardage against the league's No. 3 run defense. Mendenhall's carries are down over the past two weeks because Pittsburgh has relied on a throw-heavy spread offense, posting a combined 89:51 run-to-pass ratio in wins over Arizona and New England. The formula has been successful, so it would be unreasonable to expect change. Mendenhall may need goal-line scores to please fantasy owners in Week 9. On a brighter note, Mendenhall is playing awfully well since his early-season hamstring injury. He's averaging 5.06 YPC since sitting out Week 5. ... Heath Miller routinely stays on the line to block when the Steelers play Baltimore. In 13 career regular season meetings with the Ravens, Miller has never exceeded 42 yards. He hasn't found pay dirt against them since 2007.
Emmanuel Sanders' (knee) loss is a blow, but the Steelers don't figure to get away from their spread-heavy offensive trend. A healthy Hines Ward will take over Sanders' role in the slot, with Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace outside. "60 Minutes" Wallace burned these same Ravens for eight catches and 107 yards earlier this season, and will be tougher to double team with Brown adding credibility on the opposite side. Through eight weeks, Wallace is the No. 4 fantasy receiver behind only Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, and Carolina's Steve Smith. ... Despite Ward's return, Brown's role won't change. He played a season-high 55-of-81 snaps (67.9%) in Week 8 while setting a career high in receptions (9). Brown should be a stable fantasy WR3 for at least one more game. ... Here are Ward's last six stat lines against the Ravens: 5-67, 3-25-1, 2-14, 1-13, 4-37, 3-47, 3-55. (Hint: Aim higher.) ... Ben Roethlisberger is on a tear in the revised offense, piling up an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio across his last four starts with at least 360 yards in two straight. Even against Baltimore's top-three pass defense, Roethlisberger is a strong QB1 play in Week 9.
The Steelers are expected to be without three of their four starting linebackers Sunday night: LaMarr Woodley (hamstring), James Harrison (eye), and James Farrior (calf). Ray Rice would have been a top-five RB1 before the defensive depletion, and he's an even more confident fantasy start now. Remember, Rice torched Pittsburgh's defense at full strength for 149 total yards and two touchdowns in the opener. He'll have more lanes with special teamers Stevenson Sylvester and Chris Carter playing significant snaps on defense. ... Joe Flacco displayed some resilience by leading Baltimore back from a 24-3 first-half deficit in Week 8, throwing for 336 yards. Unfortunately, he now has to deal with the best pass defense in football. Flacco did have 224 yards and three touchdowns in the aforementioned Week 1 game, but he's consistently played poorly since. I wouldn't trust him as a fantasy starter. ... Ed Dickson hasn't reached pay dirt in his last six games and is averaging 35 yards over that span. He's a clear-cut TE2 in fantasy leagues.
Lee Evans (ankle) will miss yet another game. Rookie Torrey Smith leads the league in yards per reception, but it doesn't help much when he's catching three passes per week. Smith failed to capitalize on a prime matchup with Arizona's secondary in Week 8, dropping a pass that led to an interception and picking up 57 scoreless yards. He's a WR4 only, and at this point there's little doubt that Antonio Brown is a better bet in this particular game. ... The linebacker injuries on Pittsburgh's side could help Anquan Boldin's matchup because he runs so many routes over the middle. Looking fresh-legged since Baltimore's Week 5 bye, Boldin has racked up 19 catches for 317 yards and a touchdown in his last three games. The Ravens did an excellent job of keeping Boldin off Ike Taylor in the season opener, and he took advantage with 74 yards and a score.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 24
Monday Night Football
Chicago @ Philadelphia
With his offensive line and supporting cast healthy, Michael Vick returned from his Week 7 bye playing like the most confident football player in the league. Before taking the pedal off the gas in the final two quarters of Week 8, Vick doused the Cowboys for 187 first-half yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-17 passing, along with 45 rushing yards. For the season's final nine games, there isn't a quarterback I'd rather own in fantasy football. ... The Bears' Cover-2 defense is designed to hold deep threats like DeSean Jackson in check, although he's racked up more than 100 all-purpose yards in 2-of-3 career meetings with Chicago, to go with two touchdowns. While D-Jax is arguably the most boom-or-bust fantasy receiver in the NFL, his week-to-week ceiling makes him impossible to bench. ... Easily the most consistent wideout on the Eagles, Jeremy Maclin is the No. 11 overall receiver in fantasy points per game. Maclin also leads the team in targets on the season, suggesting he's quietly overtaken Jackson as Vick's No. 1 option in the passing game.
Fantasy owners should have trouble trusting Brent Celek as a fantasy starter despite back-to-back productive games (4-42-1, 7-94-1). It's an issue of middling talent with Celek, and he's only the fourth or fifth option in Philly's passing attack. If there is a team against whom Celek can stay hot for another week, however, it's probably the Bears. Chicago's zone defense has been burned for productive games by Jermichael Finley (7-85-3), Greg Olsen (5-50-1), Brandon Pettigrew (4-39-1), Jimmy Graham (6-79), and Tony Gonzalez (5-72) at the tight end position, giving up lots of cushion over the middle. ... The Eagles lead the NFC in time of possession, a stat that benefits LeSean McCoy more than any player on the roster. Usually pass-happy coach Andy Reid's offense is as balanced as it's ever been. Whereas Philadelphia ran the football on only 43.3% of its plays last year, the percentage has jumped to 47.1 this year, and the Eagles rank fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts. The No. 2-ranked running back in fantasy football, McCoy is on pace for career highs in carries (309), rushing yards (1,724), all-purpose touchdowns (23), and yards per rushing attempt (5.59). And barring injury, McCoy is simply playing too well for those numbers to sharply regress.
The Eagles' defense has flashed competitiveness against the run by stiffening its "Wide-9" scheme in the front four. It still got touched up for an 8.5 yards-per-carry average by Cowboys rushers last week, and Matt Forte has confirmed himself matchup proof with at least 120 yards in matchups with top-seven run defenses of Atlanta and Minnesota. In terms of YPC allowed, the Eagles still have the fifth-worst defense in football. Forte will continue to be his offense's centerpiece on Monday night. ... The Bears seemed to remedy their pass protection problems before the bye, but it's going to be put to a major test at The Linc. Philadelphia ranks sixth in the league in sacks, and Nnamdi Asomugha has picked it up since a slow start. The Eagles essentially took Dez Bryant (3-28) and Miles Austin (3-27) out of last week's game with physical press coverage and an attacking mentality up front. On paper at least, this is a mismatch for the Bears' passing offense. Jay Cutler is a QB2 against Philly's top-ten pass defense, and Roy Williams is unlikely to create separation with Asomugha in his face at the line. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett remain uninspiring options.
Score Prediction: Eagles 34, Bears 13