Chris Wesseling

Waiver Wired

Quarterback Carnage

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Starting with Andy Reid's bombshell in a noon presser, the quarterback hits kept coming Monday afternoon. Michael Vick's Week 11 status is in doubt after breaking two ribs on the second play of the Cardinals game. Matt Schaub's season is in peril with what is believed to be a Lisfranc fracture. Matt Cassel's throwing hand injury will require surgery, leaving his season in question as well.

The quarterback carnage is the kick in the pants that fantasy owners often need as a reminder to break out the handcuffs with the bye-week blues coming to a close. Vince Young, Matt Flynn and Shaun Hill are must-owns for owners of Vick, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford. Drop low-upside QB2s such as Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Jay Cutler if necessary.

At running back, the top handcuffs include Michael Bush, Ben Tate, Kendall Hunter, Ricky Williams, Felix Jones, Bernard Scott, Lance Ball, Jason Snelling, Dion Lewis, Javon Ringer, Cadillac Williams, Toby Gerhart, C.J. Spiller, Isaac Redman, Deji Karim, and Marion Barber.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 11. Full writeups of each player are below.

Editor’s Note: Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass.

Quarterbacks
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
John Skelton
Matt Moore
Rex Grossman
Dan Orlovsky
Tyler Palko

Running Backs
Lance Ball

Kendall Hunter

Kevin Smith
Donald Brown
Joe McKnight
Kregg Lumpkin
Bernard Scott
Dion Lewis

Wide Receivers
Denarius Moore
Vincent Brown
Earl Bennett
Harry Douglas
Steve Smith (PHI)
Jerricho Cotchery
Nate Burleson
Mark Clayton
Damian Williams

Tight Ends
Ed Dickson
Brent Celek
Jacob Tamme

Defense/Special Teams
Cowboys
Patriots
Jaguars

Quarterbacks

Vince Young, Eagles - Eagles beat writers are skeptical that Michael Vick will start against the Giants after suffering two broken ribs in Week 10. As Adam Levitan points out in Tuesday’s Daily Dose, Young’s rushing ability gives him a high fantasy floor in this offense. In 47 career starts, he’s averaged 27.9 rushing yards per game and scored 12 rushing touchdowns while averaging between 14 and 17 fantasy points per season. His upside is higher in Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense, leaving him as a high-end QB2 option against the Giants.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Matt Leinart, Texans - Coach Gary Kubiak’s system is quarterback-friendly enough to survive as a playoff contender even with Leinart’s limited skill-set. The Texans have run the football 67 more times than any other team in the league, which means Leinart isn’t going to be asked to do more a series of play-action passes to Andre Johnson and dumpoffs to Arian Foster or Owen Daniels. There’s limited fantasy upside even in the NFL’s fifth-ranked scoring offense.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

John Skelton, Cardinals - In addition to the two consecutive wins, Skelton has one marked advantage over Kevin Kolb: He knows how to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald. Skelton isn’t going to repeat last week’s 315-yard, three-touchdown performance. He’s probably not going to complete more than 50 percent of his passes, either. But the Cardinals are going to take their sweet time ensuring that Kolb has absolutely no traces of injury before even thinking about turning back to their $60 million mistake.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Matt Moore, Dolphins - Signs of life. After going an embarrassing 1-8 in his previous nine NFL games, Moore has won two straight while completing an impressive 71.1 percent of his passes against the Chiefs and Redskins. He’s averaging 15 fantasy points per start, just good enough for solid QB2 value in two-quarterback leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Rex Grossman, Redskins - Mike Shanahan has made a mockery of a distinguished career, starting with a preseason declaration that he would stake his reputation on Grossman and John Beck. After calling five-yard dumpoffs to keep Beck from embarrassing himself against the Niners in Week 9, Shanny turned back to Grossman at last minute heading into Week 10. The results were predictable enough. Grossman tossed his 10th and 11th interceptions in his last five starts, leading to the first five-game losing streak of Shanahan’s career. This offense has managed just 20 total points the past three weeks, so keep expectations as low as possible.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Dan Orlovsky, Colts - Coach Jim Caldwell declined to commit to a starter heading into the Week 11 bye. Curtis Painter was pulled late in the Jaguars game after a fourth consecutive brutal start that has seen him toss six picks versus zero touchdowns while averaging just 127 yards per game. Orlovsky’s history suggests he’s not a major upgrade, but the Colts’ passing-game talent is just frisky enough to provide the opportunity for QB2 value.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Tyler Palko, Chiefs - A fringe NFL talent at best, this weak-armed scrambler went undrafted out of Pitt in 2007. In five NFL preseasons, Palko has completed 133-of-243 passes (54.7 percent) for 1,423 yards (5.86 YPA), five touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while fumbling 10 times. While Palko is certainly comfortable in Todd Haley’s offense, this entire offense gets a massive downgrade with the talent dropoff under center. Palko is more likely to implode than surprise.

Recommendation: Only add if desperate.

Watch List: Matt Flynn, Shaun Hill

This week’s injuries to Vick, Schaub, Cassel are handy reminders for Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford owners to add Matt Flynn and Shaun Hill. Both are better options than carrying a Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez or Josh Freeman type as a No. 2 QB.

Cut Bait: Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Curtis Painter, John Beck

Quarterbacks
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
John Skelton
Matt Moore
Rex Grossman
Dan Orlovsky
Tyler Palko

Running Backs
Lance Ball

Kendall Hunter

Lance Ball, Broncos - After Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno both went down, Ball carried the rock a career-high 30 times in Denver’s option offense. McGahee has been medically cleared to practice on Tuesday and is tentatively expected to start against the Jets Thursday night. We’ve seen all season, though, that any hamstring injury no matter the severity typically sidelines a player for at least one week. If McGahee rushes back too quickly, Ball is in line for a heavy workload.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Update: McGahee "remains iffy" and "isn't a sure thing" to play against the Jets Thursday night, according to the Denver Post. McGahee stretched before practice, but did not go through individual drills with teammates on Tuesday. Along with Denarius Moore and Vince Young, Ball is a top waiver pickup this week.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers - Coach Jim Harbaugh suggested that Gore’s workload could be limited against the Cardinals after leaving last week’s game with ankle and knee pain. With the Niners at 8-1 and a Thursday game against the Ravens looming in Week 12, Hunter should see an increase in carries to keep Gore fresh. Should the starter go down for an extended period, Hunter could find himself with borderline RB1 value.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Kevin Smith, Lions - In a weak waiver batch, Smith is interesting in that he passed Keiland Williams on the depth chart just days after being signed off the street. He could begin pushing Maurice Morris for carries against a Panthers defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Donald Brown, Colts - Brown drew his first start of the year in Week 10, functioning as the feature back against Jacksonville’s top-five defense. With two weeks forJoseph Addai to rest his knee and hamstring, it’s anybody’s guess who will start coming out of the bye in Week 12. Brown is worth stashing with the fantasy friendly Panthers on the docket.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Joe McKnight, Jets - LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable for Thursday night’s game after suffering a sprained MCL late in the Patriots game. Should Tomlinson sit out, McKnight would take over as the third-down back. The coaching staff has been talking up McKnight all season, but he’s not going to be more than a flex option in PPR formats against the Broncos.

Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.

Kregg Lumpkin, Buccaneers - It’s hard to recommend a back who actually made a spin-move into a tackle last week, but Lumpkin’s workload is enough to gain notice in deeper leagues. Replacing LeGarrette Blount on passing downs, Lumpkin led the team with seven targets while totaling 61 yards on nine touches against the Texans. He’s a low upside flex option in PPR formats.

Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.

Bernard Scott, Bengals - A defense and ball-control team, the Bengals aren’t going to turn the backfield over to the less physical Scott. He’s clearly a more explosive runner than Cedric Benson, though, and outplayed the starter in Week 10. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Scott’s workload increase to 10-12 touches per week by the time the fantasy playoffs come around.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Dion Lewis, Eagles - Last week saw quarterbacks dropping like flies. It could be running backs or receivers this week. Should LeSean McCoy go down, rookie Lewis would likely split touches with Ronnie Brown. Lewis is the more explosive of the two backs at this stage with a skill-set suited to Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Watch List: Tashard Choice, Jeremiah Johnson, Taiwan Jones, Jacquizz Rodgers, Derrick Ward, Phillip Tanner, Anthony Dixon, D.J. Ware, Bilal Powell

Choice guarantees that he’ll be active this week against his former team. Anything can happen in a Mike Shanahan backfield, but Choice has lost my confidence with his lackluster play the past two years. … Johnson is more talented than Lance Ball. He’s worth monitoring in deep leagues. … Jones and Rodgers are merely change-of-pace options. … Ward is only worth adding if Arian Foster or Ben Tate go down.

Cut Bait: Chris Ivory, Keiland Williams, Knowshon Moreno, LaDainian Tomlinson

Wide Receivers

Denarius Moore, Raiders - Despite the consistent Rotoworld hype, Moore is still unowned in nearly two-thirds of CBSSports.com leagues. In addition to nine receptions, 184 yards, and two touchdowns in two Carson Palmer starts, Moore has also drawn 19 targets compared to nine for Jacoby Ford (foot) and one for Darrius Heyward-Bey. He’s emerged as the clear-cut No. 1 option in a passing offense featuring Palmer’s accurate downfield strikes built off a strong ground attack. Calling to mind Brandon Lloyd as an acrobatic vertical threat, Moore has WR2 upside down the stretch.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Vincent Brown, Chargers - It won’t be the case every week, but Brown was the best player on the team against the Raiders in the NFL Network Thursday night opener. The rookie third-rounder isn’t a burner, but he’s better than advertised in traffic, showing an impressive “my ball” mentality on a pair of leaping end-zone catches in traffic. Malcom Floyd (hip) missed practice on Monday, leaving Brown as the likely starter opposite Vincent Jackson at Chicago in Week 11.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Earl Bennett, Bears - A hot waiver pickup last week, Bennett is still unowned in more than 50 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. He’s been Chicago’s leading receiver in each of the two games since returning from injury, averaging 5.5 receptions and 88 yards. Note that he’s caught every pass in his direction, so he’s still not drawing huge target numbers in Chicago’s conservative offense.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Harry Douglas, Falcons - Seven of Douglas’ eight receptions last week came after Julio Jones left with a hamstring injury. The majority of those came in pass-heavy comeback mode late in the fourth quarter. Douglas is worth a look for desperate PPR-league owners, but just remember that he failed to top 62 yards in a game even when Jones was out with the first hamstring injury.

Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.

Steve Smith, Eagles - According to Pro Football Focus, Smith played 60-of-67 offensive snaps against the Cardinals while Riley Cooper played just 23. There was in-game sentiment on Twitter that Smith had his pre-surgery speed back, but he still looked pedestrian to me. Pick him up in PPR formats with Jeremy Maclin out; just don’t expect to see much play-making ability.

Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.

Jerricho Cotchery, Steelers - Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay tells us that Cotchery played 34 snaps against the Bengals compared to 10 for Hines Ward. Cotchery immediately surfaced as Ben Roethlisberger’s primary red-zone target, hauling in one touchdown, having another nullified by penalty, and just missing a third. The Steelers have a bye in Week 11, so don’t pick him up as a plug ‘n’ play.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Damian Williams, Titans - Nate Washington is struggling through a hip injury, leaving Williams as the No. 1 option in Tennessee’s aerial attack. With just three games over 60 yards this season, Williams is a risky fantasy play. On a positive note, he’s found the end zone in four of the past six games.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Mark Clayton, Rams - Clayton was eased in with just 10 snaps in his first game of the season. Brandon Gibson was held without a catch on 51 snaps, so it shouldn’t be long before Clayton is starting opposite Brandon Lloyd. Clayton will be only the second or third target regardless, so keep expectations reasonable.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Nate Burleson, Lions - Calvin Johnson has passed his concussion tests and insists he will play against Carolina, leaving Burleson as a low-upside WR3 option coming off a season-high eight receptions for 83 yards against the Bears.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Titus Young, Emmanuel Sanders, Jabar Gaffney, Chad Ochocinco, Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, Donald Jones, Andre Roberts, Golden Tate, Big Mike Williams

Young’s role is growing incrementally. He’s worth a look only if Calvin Johnson suffers a late-week setback. … Sanders is worth stashing in deeper leagues with Hines Ward demoted out of three-wide sets. … Gaffney returns to the No. 1 role with Leonard Hankerson out. … The Patriots desperately want Ochocinco’s role to grow. I’m monitoring in deeper leagues. … The Bengals’ second and third wideouts are unattractive even if A.J. Green’s knee injury ends up being a tick more serious than expected. Cincy gets the Ravens this week. … Roberts is drawing more targets under John Skelton. … Tate and Williams are only worth a look in deep leagues with Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin coming off concussions.

Hold Off: Legedu Naanee, Chastin West, Jeremy Kerley, Josh Cribbs

Naanee’s eight receptions and 75 yards are season-highs thanks to the Titans’ game-plan to stop Steve Smith. That won’t happen again. … I had a dream that my brother called to ask if he should pick up Cribbs. Needless to say, I need more exciting dreams.

Cut Bait: Leonard Hankerson, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Hines Ward, Arrelious Benn, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, Johnny Knox, Brandon Gibson, Demaryius Thomas, Mike Thomas, Doug Baldwin

Hankerson showed plenty of promise for Dynasty league owners before going down with a torn labrum in his hip. … DHB has just one target in two Carson Palmer starts. … Ward is being weeded out of three-wide sets. … Walter and Jones are worthless with Matt Schaub out and Andre Johnson returning. … The Bears continue to ignore Knox, their biggest playmaker in the passing game. … Baldwin is nursing a concussion this week.

Tight Ends

Ed Dickson, Ravens - It’s hard to ignore the 14 targets, 10 receptions, and two touchdowns against Seattle. Only five tight ends have drawn more than Dickson’s 68 targets this season, and his 40 receptions are seventh at the position. Against the Bengals’ stingy defense, Dickson remains a better option in PPR formats.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Brent Celek, Eagles - Celek has been a top-three fantasy tight end over the past three weeks and top-six over the past five weeks. Vince Young had a habit of using Bo Scaife as a security blanket in Tennessee, so Celek figures to keep drawing targets even if Michael Vick (ribs) sits out versus the Giants.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Jacob Tamme, Colts - Tamme would be the primary beneficiary if coach Jim Caldwell decides to replace an abysmal Curtis Painter with Dan Orlovsky during the bye week. Tamme was targeted on four of Orlovsky’s 10 fourth-quarter passes, including three consecutively, against the Jaguars on his way to a team-leading six receptions and 75 yards.

Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.

Watch List: Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph

Pitta and Rudolph are young, talented pass catchers, but they’re just not playing enough snaps yet.

Hold Off: Tony Scheffler, Delanie Walker

As their team's second tight end, Scheffler and Walker are far too unpredictable from week to week.

Defense/Special Teams

Cowboys - Coach Mike Shanahan claims to be sticking with Rex Grossman, who has authored 11 interceptions in his last five starts. The Redskins have a total of 20 points with just one garbage-time touchdown over the past three games while Dallas’ defense has emerged as a top-10 unit.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Patriots - Week 11 opponent Tyler Palko is a talent-deficient fringe NFL type whose 5:12 TD-to-INT ratio, 5.86 yards per attempt, and 10 fumbles in five preseasons should have the Patriots defenders licking their chops. This could be a nightmare for the Chiefs.

Recommendation: Should be owned as a matchup play.

Jaguars - Detractors can point to an easy schedule through 10 weeks, but the Jags still boast a top-five defense thus far. They draw a Browns team that has managed just two total touchdowns without topping 12 points in any game over the past month.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.

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Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.
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