Chris Wesseling

Slingbox's Waiver Wired

Heeere's Johnny!

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Running Backs

Donald Brown, Colts - Formerly a first-round bust, Brown earned praise from team president Bill Polian as one of the Colts’ strengths after thoroughly outplaying Joseph Addai in Week 12. Brown is not only averaging a career-best 4.7 yards per carry, he’s also matched his career-high with three touchdowns in the past six games. Averaging 16.7 touches and 77.7 yards over the past three games, Brown has earned weekly flex status at the very least.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Toby Gerhart, Vikings - Gerhart racked up a respectable 12 fantasy points against the Falcons’ stingy run defense, which was about as much as Adrian Peterson could have reasonably expected. The latest report from NFL Network’s Jason LaCanfora is that Peterson is unlikely to return as the starter in Week 13 against the Broncos. Gerhart would maintain low-end RB2 value under that scenario.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Maurice Morris, Lions - After initial reports to the contrary, it now appears that Kevin Smith’s ankle sprain was of the mild variety. There’s even a chance that Smith will suit up this week against the Saints, which would leave Morris without even flex value. Pick up Morris if you’re desperate, but don’t expect more than flex value at New Orleans.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers - The fourth-round rookie has shown plenty of play-making ability in small doses this year. In a run-heavy offense with an aging starter and a shot to wrap up a first-round bye in the NFL playoffs, Hunter is perhaps the most important handcuff in the league not named Ben Tate.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Montario Hardesty, Browns - Hardesty down-played the pre-game aggravation of his calf injury, suggesting he’ll be available for Week 13. Coach Pat Shurmur has indicated that he doesn’t want Peyton Hillis carrying the load in the backfield going forward. The Browns will reportedly move on from impeding free agent Hillis after the season, so it makes sense to see what they have in Hardesty in the final few weeks.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Johnny White, Bills - Still worthless between the tackles, C.J. Spiller managed just 2.9 yards per carry in his first start as Fred Jackson’s replacement. White, a fifth-round rookie out of North Carolina, is a better inside runner than Spiller. Barely averaging 2.0 YPC with three different teams this year, Tashard Choice should be a non-factor down the stretch. White has a chance to siphon early-down work by Weeks 15-17.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Marcel Reece, Raiders - The most athletic fullback I’ve seen in the past 20 years, Reece was a jack-of-all-trades against the Bears, leading the team with five catches and 92 yards on seven targets. He’s only an option in PPR formats if Darren McFadden, Denarius Moore, and Jacoby Ford all sit out again in Week 13. Even then, Reece is more of a dice roll than a reliable flex play at Miami.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.

Shane Vereen, Patriots - The second-round rookie has emerged as New England’s garbage man, totaling 15 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter of back-to-back blowouts. There should be more where that came from in this week’s matchup against the winless Colts, though Vereen is no more than a desperation fantasy play.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Hold Off: Tashard Choice, Evan Royster

Choice is a negative run waiting to happen. … Royster may have passed Ryan Torain on the depth chart, but he’ll need a Roy Helu injury to hit the fantasy radar.

Cut Bait: Jahvid Best, Fred Jackson, Delone Carter, Chris Ogbonnaya, D.J. Ware

Best and Jackson are out for the season. … Carter didn’t even see the field in Joseph Addai’s return. … Ogbonnaya is going to be unceremoniously dumped to No. 3 on the depth chart. … Ware hasn’t produced with Ahmad Bradshaw out.

Watch out for tumbleweeds rolling through the waiver wire this week. It's ghost-town bleak out there. Lost in the rubble, though, is a receiver averaging 121 yards the past two weeks with a touchdown in each game.

After languishing behind Roy Williams, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett all season, Johnny Knox emerged as the Bears' No. 1 receiver in Caleb Hanie's first career start. Since he's worked on the second team going back to training camp, Knox has built up an obvious rapport with the backup QB. A poor man's DeSean Jackson, Knox led the team with 10 targets while playing starter's snaps opposite Williams in Week 12.

Knox remains a WR3 gamble for Week 13 against the Chiefs, but there's potential for a jackpot against the Seahawks, Packers (second-most fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers), and Vikings (fourth-most) in Weeks 15-17.

On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 13. Full writeups of each player are below.

Editor’s Note: Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass.

Quarterbacks
Vince Young
Kyle Orton
Rex Grossman
Caleb Hanie
Matt Moore
Kevin Kolb

Running Backs
Donald Brown
Toby Gerhart
Maurice Morris
Kendall Hunter
Montario Hardesty
Marcel Reece
Johnny White
Shane Vereen

*Roy Helu (74 percent) and Peyton Hillis (89 percent) are already owned in the vast majority of CBSSports.com leagues. They would be Nos. 1 and 2 on this list if available.

Wide Receivers
Johnny Knox
Riley Cooper
Greg Little
Doug Baldwin
Malcom Floyd
Damian Williams
Chaz Schilens
Brad Smith

Tight Ends
Scott Chandler
Marcedes Lewis
Lance Kendricks
Kevin Boss

Defense/Special Teams
Falcons
Patriots
Broncos

Quarterbacks

Vince Young, Eagles - Michael Vick has missed two weeks, yet Young is still owned in just a third of CBSSports.com leagues. That’s even more of a head-scratcher after VY threw up a career-high 400 passing yards on top of 40 rushing yards in Week 12. Vick has yet to practice this week with a Thursday game at Seattle, leaving Young as the likely starter for one more week. As he has been the past two games, Young will be a borderline QB1 again in this pass-heavy offense.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Kyle Orton, Chiefs - Tyler Palko is sporting a 0:6 TD-to-INT ratio in back-to-back losses. Coach Todd Haley refuses to anoint Orton the starter, but it’s coming. Once he takes over, Orton will have an above average wide receiver corps with Pro-Bowl caliber Dwayne Bowe flanked by Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin. Even better, there’s a fantasy-friendly schedule from Weeks 15-17 against the Packers, Raiders, and Broncos -- all of whom rank in the top-five in most points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Rex Grossman, Redskins - The Redskins’ passing offense has been downright frisky the past three weeks since Grossman regained his starting job from John Beck. He’s the No. 10 fantasy QB over that span while averaging close to 20 points per week. While a forbidding matchup against the Jets looms in Week 13, Grossman hits easy street the rest of the way with games against the Patriots, Giants, Vikings, and Eagles.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Matt Moore, Dolphins - Auditioning for the 2012 starting job, Moore is 12th in fantasy points over the past five weeks. His true value lies closer to his ranking of No. 18 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. With plus matchups against the Raiders, Eagles, Bills, and Patriots the next four weeks, Moore is a rock-solid QB2 for the fantasy playoffs.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Caleb Hanie, Bears - The results weren’t pretty for the Bears, but Hanie racked up 21 fantasy points (25 in leagues that don’t penalize for turnovers) in his first career start. With 50 yards on five rushes, Hanie also proved to be more of a scrambling threat than Jay Cutler while becoming the first QB since Rich Gannon in 1990 to throw for 250 yards and rush for 50 in his first start. Don’t expect more than QB2 value, but keep in mind that Hanie faces the Broncos, Packers, and Vikings -- all among the most generous to fantasy QBs -- in three of the final five games.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Kevin Kolb, Cardinals - Coach Ken Whisenhunt is optimistic that Kolb will return to start this week after John Skelton fell on his face in back-to-back starts. The Cardinals don’t have a single matchup against defenses in the top-half of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so keep expectations low for December.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Jake Locker, Jeff Garcia, Jake Delhomme, Kellen Clemens

Even though he’s struggling of late, Matt Hasselbeck will continue to start as long as the Titans are in the AFC South hunt. … Garcia and Delhomme are trying out for the Texans on Tuesday. Don’t expect even QB2 production if one of the veterans is signed.

Hold Off: Sam Bradford, T.J. Yates, Curtis Painter, Luke McCown

Bradford is averaging less than 220 yards and a touchdown per week. … Yates will spend Sunday’s game handing off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate. … McCown is expected to return to the bench for Week 13.

Cut Bait: Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart, John Skelton, Blaine Gabbert, Tyler Palko, Ricky Stanzi

Running Backs

Donald Brown, Colts - Formerly a first-round bust, Brown earned praise from team president Bill Polian as one of the Colts’ strengths after thoroughly outplaying Joseph Addai in Week 12. Brown is not only averaging a career-best 4.7 yards per carry, he’s also matched his career-high with three touchdowns in the past six games. Averaging 16.7 touches and 77.7 yards over the past three games, Brown has earned weekly flex status at the very least.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Toby Gerhart, Vikings - Gerhart racked up a respectable 12 fantasy points against the Falcons’ stingy run defense, which was about as much as Adrian Peterson could have reasonably expected. The latest report from NFL Network’s Jason LaCanfora is that Peterson is unlikely to return as the starter in Week 13 against the Broncos. Gerhart would maintain low-end RB2 value under that scenario.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Maurice Morris, Lions - After initial reports to the contrary, it now appears that Kevin Smith’s ankle sprain was of the mild variety. There’s even a chance that Smith will suit up this week against the Saints, which would leave Morris without even flex value. Pick up Morris if you’re desperate, but don’t expect more than flex value at New Orleans.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers - The fourth-round rookie has shown plenty of play-making ability in small doses this year. In a run-heavy offense with an aging starter and a shot to wrap up a first-round bye in the NFL playoffs, Hunter is perhaps the most important handcuff in the league not named Ben Tate.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Montario Hardesty, Browns - Hardesty down-played the pre-game aggravation of his calf injury, suggesting he’ll be available for Week 13. Coach Pat Shurmur has indicated that he doesn’t want Peyton Hillis carrying the load in the backfield going forward. The Browns will reportedly move on from impeding free agent Hillis after the season, so it makes sense to see what they have in Hardesty in the final few weeks.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Johnny White, Bills - Still worthless between the tackles, C.J. Spiller managed just 2.9 yards per carry in his first start as Fred Jackson’s replacement. White, a fifth-round rookie out of North Carolina, is a better inside runner than Spiller. Barely averaging 2.0 YPC with three different teams this year, Tashard Choice should be a non-factor down the stretch. White has a chance to siphon early-down work by Weeks 15-17.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Marcel Reece, Raiders - The most athletic fullback I’ve seen in the past 20 years, Reece was a jack-of-all-trades against the Bears, leading the team with five catches and 92 yards on seven targets. He’s only an option in PPR formats if Darren McFadden, Denarius Moore, and Jacoby Ford all sit out again in Week 13. Even then, Reece is more of a dice roll than a reliable flex play at Miami.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.

Shane Vereen, Patriots - The second-round rookie has emerged as New England’s garbage man, totaling 15 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter of back-to-back blowouts. There should be more where that came from in this week’s matchup against the winless Colts, though Vereen is no more than a desperation fantasy play.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Hold Off: Tashard Choice, Evan Royster

Choice is a negative run waiting to happen. … Royster may have passed Ryan Torain on the depth chart, but he’ll need a Roy Helu injury to hit the fantasy radar.

Cut Bait: Jahvid Best, Fred Jackson, Delone Carter, Chris Ogbonnaya, D.J. Ware

Best and Jackson are out for the season. … Carter didn’t even see the field in Joseph Addai’s return. … Ogbonnaya is going to be unceremoniously dumped to No. 3 on the depth chart. … Ware hasn’t produced with Ahmad Bradshaw out.

Wide Receivers

Johnny Knox, Bears - After a quiet start, Knox is averaging a 3.5/121/1 over the past two weeks. According to Pro Football Focus, Knox played 56 of 70 snaps opposite Roy Williams (64) while Earl Bennett played 47 in Week 12. Devin Hester was limited to return duties. Knox’s 10 targets were a season-high while also leading all Bears receivers. He spent time with Caleb Hanie on the second-team offense in training camp and preseason action, and there was an obvious rapport there against the Raiders. Knox is the one Bears receiver I’d want to own going forward.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Riley Cooper, Eagles - While Jason Avant is worth a look in PPR formats, Cooper is the preferred Eagles pickup in standard-scoring leagues. Jeremy Maclin (hamstring, shoulder) was absent from Tuesday’s practice, which bodes poorly for his chances of playing on a short week with a Thursday night game. Averaging 73 yards the past two weeks, Cooper is line for one more start against Seattle this week.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Doug Baldwin, Seahawks - Nursing his second concussion in three weeks, Sidney Rice is a long shot to play against the Eagles in Week 13. Since Big Williams hasn’t even been a top-100 fantasy receiver this season, it falls on Baldwin to pick up the slack in the receiving game. The impressive rookie led the team with 10 targets and 60 yards against the Redskins. Fantasy’s No. 39 receiver through 12 weeks, Baldwin should be Tarvaris Jackson’s No. 1 read versus Philly.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Greg Little, Browns - We figured it was coming. Little finally found the end zone in Week 12 after entering the game with 42 catches -- tops among rookie receivers. Colt McCoy’s go-to receiver has seen at least eight targets in four of the past five games while topping 50 yards in three straight. He’s a low-upside WR3 in 12- and 14-team leagues going forward.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Damian Williams, Titans - Williams’ yardage totals have been all over the map, but he’s emerged as Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite red-zone target with touchdowns in three of the past four games. He’s averaging 7.25 targets over the past month, as well, so there could be staying power here as a WR4/5 option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Malcom Floyd, Chargers - If only he could stay healthy. Floyd cleared 100 yards in two of three games before going down with a hip injury in Week 8. Reportedly looking “limber and fast” in pre-game drills last week, Floyd is expected to resume practicing this week. His return should push Vincent Brown back into the No. 3 role. Floyd has plus matchups on the horizon against a Jaguars team minus its two top corners in Week 13 and the Bills in Week 14.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Chaz Schilens, Raiders - In a bit of irony from the football gods, Schilens and Louis Murphy were the two young, athletic Raiders receivers to enter Week 12 fully healthy. Schilens drew eight targets while leading the wideouts in receiving. Should Jacoby Ford (foot) and Denarius Moore (ankle) miss another week, Schilens could be worth a roll of the dice at Miami in deeper leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Brad Smith, Bills - Coach Chan Gailey confirmed that Smith will remain the starter opposite Stevie Johnson after a 4/77/1 line in his first substantial action at wide receiver last week. Smith falls into the category of a Joshua Cribbs or Devin Hester, though, and we’ve learned not to trust returner/gadget players on a weekly basis. Week 12 will likely go down as his best game of the season.

Recommendation: Worth a look only in the deepest of leagues.

Watch List: Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Jordan Norwood, Danario Alexander, Jarett Dillard

Keep an eye on LaFell. According to Pro Football Focus, he played 62 snaps last week compared to 34 for a banged-up Legedu Naanee. If that change becomes official, LaFell is worthy of a pick in 14-team leagues. … Sanders has to separate from Hines Ward before he hits the radar again. … Norwood is worth a look in PPR leagues, but I’d make him show it again. … Alexander should regain his starting job from Brandon Gibson now that he’s healthy. … Dillard is quietly keeping up with Mike Thomas and Jason Hill the past three weeks, gaining a modicum of attention in deep Dynasty leagues.

Hold Off: Jason Avant, Harry Douglas, Brian Hartline, Lavelle Hawkins

Avant can be added in PPR formats, but we’ve seen this routine under four different Eagles QBs now. He blows up for one game in comeback mode, then totals 25 yards the next week. … Julio Jones was still on the field on the fourth quarter, a sign that he’ll be active again in Week 13. … Hartline is never a good bet to top 50 yards. … Hawkins is the Titans’ No. 3 receiver.

Cut Bait: Braylon Edwards, Jerome Simpson, Brandon Gibson, Michael Jenkins, Jerricho Cotchery

Edwards is moving in slow motion while playing through a shoulder injury. … Simpson is a tease. … Gibson is about to lose snaps to Danario Alexander. … Already slow, Jenkins is now banged up. … Cotchery tumbled back to fifth on the depth chart last week.

Tight Ends

Scott Chandler, Bills - The first-year starter's role has grown of late with the Bills receivers falling by the wayside. Fantasy's No. 13 tight end on the season, Chandler has seen back-to-back season-highs in targets and receptions while averaging over 60 yards per over the past two weeks. He's always a decent bet to find the end zone, which leaves him as an attractive TE2 versus a Titans defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a spot start.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - The Jacksonville QBs must be under orders to find Lewis of late. He’s drawn back-to-back season highs in targets, averaging a whopping 11.5 the past two weeks for 5.5 receptions and 55.5 yards. If the Jags had a competent passer on the roster, I’d feel better about Lewis as a starting option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Lance Kendricks, Rams - Finally over concussion and foot injuries, Kendricks posted his second-highest yardage total of the season in Week 12. It’s not necessarily a sign of things to come, but we know the rookie is more talented than he’s shown through the first three months of the season. He’s worth a look in deep leagues with the Rams wide receiver corps depleted.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Kevin Boss, Raiders - The pickings are getting slim at tight end. Boss can’t be counted on just yet, but he has plus matchups against the Dolphins, Packers, and Chiefs in three of the next four weeks. If Carson Palmer starts to look his way, there could be TE2 value for the fantasy playoffs.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Defense/Special Teams

Falcons - Over the past three weeks, Atlanta’s matchup has gone from Matt Schaub to Matt Leinart to fifth-round rookie T.J. Yates’ first career start. The Falcons haven’t allowed 100 yards rushing in over a month, and they’ve only given up 20 points once in the past six games. This is a defense on a roll facing an offense that will struggle to the move the ball.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Patriots - New England is already favored by 21 points against a Colts team well on its way to a winless season. Coach Jim Caldwell made the QB change to Dan Orlovsky Tuesday, but he's not a significant upgrade on Curtis Painter. Orlovsky has a winless season of his own under his belt with an 0-7 career record and a combined 13 fumbles and interceptions versus eight touchdowns.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Broncos - With Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil bringing the heat, Denver’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 13 points for three straight games. Week 13 brings a matchup against a Vikings offense that could be without Adrian Peterson for a second straight game.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.

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Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.
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