Week 13 Rankings Update

Matt Forte’s problems started before Jay Cutler got hurt. Forte was one of the fantasy MVPs of the first half, but he’s headed for a rough stretch run for a number of reasons.

1. Hanie: The Bears offense won’t sustain drives with Hanie at quarterback. Cutler’s backup was ridiculously frantic in the pocket last week, scrambling at the slightest hint of pressure.

Defenses are already starting to adjust how they face Forte. He faced 8 or 9 in the box on almost half his runs last week. The Raiders didn’t respect Hanie. The Bears also got more predictable with playcalling. Seven of Forte’s 12 runs came on first down.

2. Usage: Marion Barber is officially a problem for Forte. Barber played quite a bit in the first half against Oakland and during crunch time. Barber is playing well and the offense has moved the ball with Barber in. That’s only going to lead to more touches for Barber, including on the goal line.

3. Offensive line: The Bears have generally done a decent job run-blocking, but injuries have caught up to them. Forte averaged 155 total yards per game on 23 touches in the first eight games. He’s averaged 78 yards-per-game on 20 touches in the last three games.

I hope I’m wrong – Forte is a fellow Tulane guy after all – but the best of Forte’s season is likely behind him.


Week 13 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: All of the receiver injuries in Oakland have become a big problem for Carson Palmer. Chaz Schilens, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy all drop passes and run imprecise routes. Palmer’s exasperation with DHB and Murphy was obvious on a few plays last week. Denarius Moore returning would help, but Palmer is a borderline play in a tough matchup. … It’s hard to watch Josh Freeman right now. His timing is so off. He doesn’t feel pressure. His head just seems scrambled. He has the best matchup possible this week, but even that doesn’t make him a great play.

Tony Romo’s play on Thanksgiving was a great sign. The numbers weren’t huge, but he put together some amazing drives and moments against Miami. He’s looking like the old Romo. A huge finish wouldn’t surprise me at all. … Eli Manning made some incredible throws against the Saints. The collapse of the Giants defense actually may help Manning rack up fantasy points down the stretch as he tries to keep up. … Matthew Stafford could rack up yards in New Orleans trying to catch up to the Saints this week, just like Eli. Stafford’s accuracy isn’t great, but it wasn’t great before the thumb injury. … The Bengals secondary isn’t as strong as the beginning of the season. That’s good news for Ben Roethlisberger. Expect a bounce-back game.

The Panthers had a slightly more conservative gameplan last week because that’s all they needed. Look for a run-heavy approach again, but that’s not a terrible thing for Cam Newton. The Bucs defense is soft and over pursues. Newton should have a big day on the ground. … Tim Tebow made a few more quality throws last week. If that can get more regular, he can be a top-five guy down the stretch. The consistency isn’t there yet. … Yes, we’ve reached the point Philip Rivers can be benched. The offensive line is in tatters and Rivers can’t compensate.

Caleb Hanie looked decent on a few short timing passes last week. He also delivered a beautiful pass to Johnny Knox that traveled 56 yards in the air once the game was decided. It was one of the best throws of the year. Add in Hanie’s rushing ability and he almost looks tempting in fantasy leagues. Almost. The Bears have to see how poor Hanie was staying in the pocket. Conservative gameplans should follow. … Every time I watch the Titans, I’m amazed they are 6-5. Everything is hard for Matt Hasselbeck. He’s done a commendable job, but he isn’t a great option even in an easy matchup.

Matt Forte’s problems started before Jay Cutler got hurt. Forte was one of the fantasy MVPs of the first half, but he’s headed for a rough stretch run for a number of reasons.

1. Hanie: The Bears offense won’t sustain drives with Hanie at quarterback. Cutler’s backup was ridiculously frantic in the pocket last week, scrambling at the slightest hint of pressure.

Defenses are already starting to adjust how they face Forte. He faced 8 or 9 in the box on almost half his runs last week. The Raiders didn’t respect Hanie. The Bears also got more predictable with playcalling. Seven of Forte’s 12 runs came on first down.

2. Usage: Marion Barber is officially a problem for Forte. Barber played quite a bit in the first half against Oakland and during crunch time. Barber is playing well and the offense has moved the ball with Barber in. That’s only going to lead to more touches for Barber, including on the goal line.

3. Offensive line: The Bears have generally done a decent job run-blocking, but injuries have caught up to them. Forte averaged 155 total yards per game on 23 touches in the first eight games. He’s averaged 78 yards-per-game on 20 touches in the last three games.

I hope I’m wrong – Forte is a fellow Tulane guy after all – but the best of Forte’s season is likely behind him.


Week 13 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: All of the receiver injuries in Oakland have become a big problem for Carson Palmer. Chaz Schilens, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy all drop passes and run imprecise routes. Palmer’s exasperation with DHB and Murphy was obvious on a few plays last week. Denarius Moore returning would help, but Palmer is a borderline play in a tough matchup. … It’s hard to watch Josh Freeman right now. His timing is so off. He doesn’t feel pressure. His head just seems scrambled. He has the best matchup possible this week, but even that doesn’t make him a great play.

Tony Romo’s play on Thanksgiving was a great sign. The numbers weren’t huge, but he put together some amazing drives and moments against Miami. He’s looking like the old Romo. A huge finish wouldn’t surprise me at all. … Eli Manning made some incredible throws against the Saints. The collapse of the Giants defense actually may help Manning rack up fantasy points down the stretch as he tries to keep up. … Matthew Stafford could rack up yards in New Orleans trying to catch up to the Saints this week, just like Eli. Stafford’s accuracy isn’t great, but it wasn’t great before the thumb injury. … The Bengals secondary isn’t as strong as the beginning of the season. That’s good news for Ben Roethlisberger. Expect a bounce-back game.

The Panthers had a slightly more conservative gameplan last week because that’s all they needed. Look for a run-heavy approach again, but that’s not a terrible thing for Cam Newton. The Bucs defense is soft and over pursues. Newton should have a big day on the ground. … Tim Tebow made a few more quality throws last week. If that can get more regular, he can be a top-five guy down the stretch. The consistency isn’t there yet. … Yes, we’ve reached the point Philip Rivers can be benched. The offensive line is in tatters and Rivers can’t compensate.

Caleb Hanie looked decent on a few short timing passes last week. He also delivered a beautiful pass to Johnny Knox that traveled 56 yards in the air once the game was decided. It was one of the best throws of the year. Add in Hanie’s rushing ability and he almost looks tempting in fantasy leagues. Almost. The Bears have to see how poor Hanie was staying in the pocket. Conservative gameplans should follow. … Every time I watch the Titans, I’m amazed they are 6-5. Everything is hard for Matt Hasselbeck. He’s done a commendable job, but he isn’t a great option even in an easy matchup.

Week 13 Running Backs

RB Notes: The last time Chris Johnson topped 100 yards, I watched the game and wasn’t impressed. This time he looked a lot better. There were some big holes, but Johnson also made the first defender miss repeatedly for the first time all year. He was able to run on the Bucs when they knew the run was coming. He (gasp) even fought through some tackles. There was a change of direction and suddenness back in his step. Johnson still seems to be missing some of the long speed he once had, but the matchups are insanely favorable down the stretch. If your team survived his first ten games, you are in good shape now. I’d certainly rather have him than Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden at the moment. Availability is everything.

LeGarrette Blount made a lot of defenders miss in the same game. The Bucs are starting to use him more as a receiver. They even called a few plays for him in the passing game. Blount’s shiftiness for his size is silly. His matchup this week is ideal. The Panthers rush defense is so bad, it couldn’t contain Donald Brown. … At this point, Marshawn Lynch is about as reliable as any RB2 out there. This is a plus matchup and he should be in almost all lineups. … LeSean McCoy’s injury is a concern. So is the matchup. But it’s not like you are going to sit him if he plays. Don’t get too cute. … Brandon Jacobs has bounced 257 runs to the outside this year. They have gained a total of two yards. (Note: I may have made that stat up. But man it’s painful to watch Jacobs play.) … It’s hard to trust Mark Ingram. He’s smoother than expected in the passing game, but just doesn’t get on the field enough.

The good news: Peyton Hillis is back and he played a lot better than his numbers indicated last week. The bad news: He faces the Ravens and Steelers four more times the rest of the year. Yikes. Hillis broke a number of tackles against Cincinnati and was very effective in short-yardage. He looked more energized than early in the season. Some horribly blocked negative plays late in the game hurt him in the box score. With all that said, it’s hard to imagine him making much noise in these tough matchups. Chris Ogbonnya is taking third down duties and is more explosive than Hillis, which doesn’t help Hillis’ chances. … Michael Bush may be wearing down, but there just weren’t holes against the Bears. Bush isn’t going to create his own yardage, which means he could have another quiet week against Miami.

T.J. Yates is going to be a drag on Arian Foster. Ben Tate is no longer a good flex option, especially against a good rush defense like the Falcons. … The Rams are a perfect bounce-back team for Frank Gore to face. … It was great to see Beanie Wells break out. We wrote a few times he’s run better than the numbers show. He’s still a RB2, despite the tough matchup. … Jonathan Stewart keeps getting the easiest matchups possible. The Bucs defense is a disaster right now. … I’m buying that Roy Helu is The Man in Washington. I’m not buying he’ll run that well against the Jets, but he’ll catch enough passes to make him worthwhile. … Steven Jackson hasn’t scored a touchdown in more than a month. That’s not going to change this week.

Week 13 Wide Receivers

WR Notes: I wrote in the quarterback section how unreliable the Raiders wide receivers are. It’s clear Carson Palmer doesn’t trust Darrius Heyward-Bey. If Denarius Moore returns, expect him to get a lot of targets. Stay away from the Raiders otherwise. I would drop DHB. … Reggie Wayne was touted here last week. He’s not a bad WR3 again because of the matchup again. Dan Orlovsky can’t hurt him. … Plaxico’s third down Inspector Gadget catch against Buffalo was one of the plays of the season. That is all. … Deion Branch is great against zone coverage and terrible against man. That makes this week a nice one to play him.

Matt Moore has been good for Brandon Marshall. He’s willing to just throw the ball up to him, like Jay Cutler did in Denver. Moore has an aggressive style in general, which is good for (fantasy) business. … Andre Johnson is just another receiver now. The Texans won’t be as conservative with T.J. Yates once they have a week to gameplan, but they will still be plenty conservative. It’s a good thing that Brent Grimes will miss this week’s game, but A.J. is just as likely to get 40 yards as he is to break out. The focus for Houston will be on short timing passes.

A quick note on Jason Hill, who was taken too early in fantasy drafts. Guys that flame out on their first team almost never make a huge impact after that. Devin Aromashodu was another guy who tricked fantasy owners last year. There’s usually a good reason why a receiver doesn’t make an impact early in his career. … Damian Williams has some ability after the catch. He just missed making a nice play on a possible score last week as well. At this point, he’s the best option in Tennessee. … Look for a bounce-back game from Mike Wallace against a slow Bengals secondary.

The Rams have scored three offensive touchdowns in the last four weeks. Brandon Lloyd has all three. … Julio Jones’ o-fer last week was apparently not injury related. Matt Ryan will want to get him involved early. … DeSean Jackson wouldn’t have been benched if that game was close last week. It’s not a major concern. … Doug Baldwin has more value with Sidney Rice out for the season. … Johnny Knox could be a factor with Caleb Hanie in the lineup. There are more two wideout sets with Knox and Roy Williams. Knox was clearly the preferred target last week. If nothing else, Hanie can throw it deep.

Week 13 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Jared Cook has been one of the quiet busts of the year. He is a great leaper, but not as explosive as you think and not terribly good catching the ball. … Rex Grossman should help Fred Davis finish the year off well. This is a tough matchup, but Grossman definitely adds a level of aggression to the Redskins offense that wasn’t there with John Beck. … Jermichael Finley has lost some of Aaron Rodgers’ trust. He’s killed too many drives with drops and isn’t always where Rodgers expects.

Vernon Davis gets stuck blocking too much, but that shouldn’t be necessary this week. It’s a week to play him. … Kellen Winslow has morphed into Josh Freeman’s most reliable option. He’s not going to make any big plays, but this is a week to use him. … This isn’t a bad week to play Brandon Pettigrew because he can win against Roman Harper or the Saints linebackers. … I’d bench Owen Daniels if possible until T.J. Yates proves he can be competent. … Aaron Hernandez quietly played very well against the Eagles. Don’t be surprised if he has a big game against the Colts.


Week 13 Team Defense

Week 13 Kickers