This week’s title comes courtesy of loyal Rotoworld reader Jim Sloan, who noted that Jones has risen from the ranks of the football dead just in time to cure what ails a short-handed fantasy owner in the two most crucial weeks of the season. The Cowboys placed DeMarco Murray (fractured ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, ensuring that Jones will function as a three-down back the rest of the way.
Pro Football Focus made the case last week that the difference in perception between Murray and Jones this season is “almost entirely the result of a scheduling fluke which has artificially enhanced the yards before contact numbers of Murray and suppressed those of Jones.” In fact, Murray actually averaged slightly fewer fantasy points per touch from Weeks 7-13 of 2011 than Jones did from Weeks 10-17 of 2010.
While Jones was unquestionably one of the first-half’s biggest fantasy disappointments, he was facing a tougher schedule, playing through a separated shoulder, and running behind an inexperienced offensive line still learning the NFL ropes. We saw a more aggressive Jones Sunday night, lowering his pads and blowing through Giants tackles.
If Jones faceplants this time around, he will have only himself to blame. Matchups don’t get any dreamier than a Buccaneers defense going through the motions in a seven-game losing streak while allowing the most fantasy points to opposing backs. After turning Chris Johnson’s season around with 190 yards, the Bucs rolled over for a career-high four touchdowns to Maurice Jones-Drew in Week 14. Tampa's defense “jammed up close to the line of scrimmage” against an offense that hadn’t topped 20 points all year, and still couldn’t close off running lanes. Jones is going to be a top-10 fantasy play in his first start since mid-October.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 15. Full writeups of each player are below.
Editor’s Note: Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass.
Running Backs
Felix Jones
Ryan Grant
Chris Ivory
Montario Hardesty
John Kuhn
Kahlil Bell
Danny Woodhead
Quarterbacks
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Rex Grossman
T.J. Yates
Dan Orlovsky
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas
Jabar Gaffney
James Jones
Randall Cobb
Golden Tate
Titus Young
Jerome Simpson
Donald Driver
Devin Aromashodu
Tight Ends
Dallas Clark
Anthony Fasano
Evan Moore
Marcedes Lewis
Defense/Special Teams
Cardinals
Falcons
Seahawks
Running Backs
Felix Jones, Cowboys - Coming off the bench 14 weeks into the season, Jones finally made good on that preseason hype (guilty as charged) once DeMarco Murray went down with a broken ankle. While Jones’ early-season disappointment was the result of a tough schedule, a separated shoulder, and a young offensive line still learning the ropes, it seemed evident that he was lowering his pads and running with more authority against the Giants Sunday night. With Murray on injured reserve, Jones is an every-down back heading into a matchup against the league’s most generous run defense. He’s a legit top-10 RB1 for Week 15.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Ryan Grant, Packers - Grant’s 47-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage was the longest Green Bay run of the season, and his first over 10 yards in 67 carries and nine weeks. Although Grant was able to get downhill between the tackles, he still doesn’t stand a prayer to get to the edge. I wouldn’t expect a repeat at Kansas City even if James Starks (ankle) sits out again, but starting running backs are hard to come by at this stage of the season. Grant has to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Chris Ivory, Saints - As expected, Ivory led the backfield in carries against the Titans while filling in for Mark Ingram. There’s little falloff -- if any -- with Ivory in the lineup, so the Saints can afford to wait until Ingram is 100 percent recovered from his turf toe injury as opposed to rushing him back. If Ingram misses practices again this week, Ivory is worthy of flex consideration versus the Vikings in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Montario Hardesty, Browns - Peyton Hillis (hip) started last week’s game against the Steelers, but Hardesty functioned as the lead back for the final three quarters. Hillis’ post-game comments hinted that the Browns intend to go with a timeshare in the backfield as long as he’s playing through injuries. Hardesty isn’t a good bet for more than 10-12 touches unless Hillis aggravates one of his injuries during the Cardinals game.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
John Kuhn, Packers - With James Starks (ankle) out of the lineup, Kuhn tied for the team lead with 10 carries against the Raiders in Week 14. The majority of his touches came in garbage time with the Packers in clock-killing mode. If Starks sits out again this week, Kuhn could be called upon to salt away a big lead again at Kansas City. He’s purely a desperation flex option for the fantasy playoffs.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Kahlil Bell, Bears - Bell played just 19 snaps to Marion Barber’s 42 against the Broncos, but it’s worth noting that the Bears wanted the ball in his hands when he was on the field. Bell touched the ball on 14 of those 19 snaps in a decidedly run-heavy attack. That will almost certainly stand as his season-high in touches, so keep expectations low against the Seahawks. Bell isn’t flex-worthy just yet.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Danny Woodhead, Patriots - The good news is that Woodhead led the backfield in snaps and touches against the Redskins in Week 14. The bad news, as we’ve all come to learn over the years, is that the division of snaps in New England is driven by matchups and game momentum. Woodhead could take a backseat to BenJarvus Green-Ellis against the Broncos in Week 15.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.
Watch List: Lance Ball, Isaac Redman, Chauncey Washington
Ball’s 38 snaps led Denver backs in Week 14. He could start seeing more touches if Willis McGahee wears down under his heaviest workload in years. … Redman is a handcuff. … Washington has yet to be promoted from the Cowboys’ practice squad.
Hold Off: Keiland Williams, Evan Royster, Sammy Morris
Kevin Smith (ankle) expects to return this week, sending Williams back to the bench. … Royster is a bench-warmer. … Morris is a 34-year-old with fullback speed. He’s not going to threaten Felix Jones.
This week’s title comes courtesy of loyal Rotoworld reader Jim Sloan, who noted that Jones has risen from the ranks of the football dead just in time to cure what ails a short-handed fantasy owner in the two most crucial weeks of the season. The Cowboys placed DeMarco Murray (fractured ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, ensuring that Jones will function as a three-down back the rest of the way.
Pro Football Focus made the case last week that the difference in perception between Murray and Jones this season is “almost entirely the result of a scheduling fluke which has artificially enhanced the yards before contact numbers of Murray and suppressed those of Jones.” In fact, Murray actually averaged slightly fewer fantasy points per touch from Weeks 7-13 of 2011 than Jones did from Weeks 10-17 of 2010.
While Jones was unquestionably one of the first-half’s biggest fantasy disappointments, he was facing a tougher schedule, playing through a separated shoulder, and running behind an inexperienced offensive line still learning the NFL ropes. We saw a more aggressive Jones Sunday night, lowering his pads and blowing through Giants tackles.
If Jones faceplants this time around, he will have only himself to blame. Matchups don’t get any dreamier than a Buccaneers defense going through the motions in a seven-game losing streak while allowing the most fantasy points to opposing backs. After turning Chris Johnson’s season around with 190 yards, the Bucs rolled over for a career-high four touchdowns to Maurice Jones-Drew in Week 14. Tampa's defense “jammed up close to the line of scrimmage” against an offense that hadn’t topped 20 points all year, and still couldn’t close off running lanes. Jones is going to be a top-10 fantasy play in his first start since mid-October.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 15. Full writeups of each player are below.
Editor’s Note: Join subscriber only chats, get weekly rankings before anyone else, plus exclusive weekly projections, stat tools, dynasty ranks, columns, and much more including the Rotoworld Oracle in our Season Pass.
Running Backs
Felix Jones
Ryan Grant
Chris Ivory
Montario Hardesty
John Kuhn
Kahlil Bell
Danny Woodhead
Quarterbacks
Jake Locker
Christian Ponder
Rex Grossman
T.J. Yates
Dan Orlovsky
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas
Jabar Gaffney
James Jones
Randall Cobb
Golden Tate
Titus Young
Jerome Simpson
Donald Driver
Devin Aromashodu
Tight Ends
Dallas Clark
Anthony Fasano
Evan Moore
Marcedes Lewis
Defense/Special Teams
Cardinals
Falcons
Seahawks
Running Backs
Felix Jones, Cowboys - Coming off the bench 14 weeks into the season, Jones finally made good on that preseason hype (guilty as charged) once DeMarco Murray went down with a broken ankle. While Jones’ early-season disappointment was the result of a tough schedule, a separated shoulder, and a young offensive line still learning the ropes, it seemed evident that he was lowering his pads and running with more authority against the Giants Sunday night. With Murray on injured reserve, Jones is an every-down back heading into a matchup against the league’s most generous run defense. He’s a legit top-10 RB1 for Week 15.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Ryan Grant, Packers - Grant’s 47-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage was the longest Green Bay run of the season, and his first over 10 yards in 67 carries and nine weeks. Although Grant was able to get downhill between the tackles, he still doesn’t stand a prayer to get to the edge. I wouldn’t expect a repeat at Kansas City even if James Starks (ankle) sits out again, but starting running backs are hard to come by at this stage of the season. Grant has to be owned in all leagues.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Chris Ivory, Saints - As expected, Ivory led the backfield in carries against the Titans while filling in for Mark Ingram. There’s little falloff -- if any -- with Ivory in the lineup, so the Saints can afford to wait until Ingram is 100 percent recovered from his turf toe injury as opposed to rushing him back. If Ingram misses practices again this week, Ivory is worthy of flex consideration versus the Vikings in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Montario Hardesty, Browns - Peyton Hillis (hip) started last week’s game against the Steelers, but Hardesty functioned as the lead back for the final three quarters. Hillis’ post-game comments hinted that the Browns intend to go with a timeshare in the backfield as long as he’s playing through injuries. Hardesty isn’t a good bet for more than 10-12 touches unless Hillis aggravates one of his injuries during the Cardinals game.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
John Kuhn, Packers - With James Starks (ankle) out of the lineup, Kuhn tied for the team lead with 10 carries against the Raiders in Week 14. The majority of his touches came in garbage time with the Packers in clock-killing mode. If Starks sits out again this week, Kuhn could be called upon to salt away a big lead again at Kansas City. He’s purely a desperation flex option for the fantasy playoffs.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Kahlil Bell, Bears - Bell played just 19 snaps to Marion Barber’s 42 against the Broncos, but it’s worth noting that the Bears wanted the ball in his hands when he was on the field. Bell touched the ball on 14 of those 19 snaps in a decidedly run-heavy attack. That will almost certainly stand as his season-high in touches, so keep expectations low against the Seahawks. Bell isn’t flex-worthy just yet.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Danny Woodhead, Patriots - The good news is that Woodhead led the backfield in snaps and touches against the Redskins in Week 14. The bad news, as we’ve all come to learn over the years, is that the division of snaps in New England is driven by matchups and game momentum. Woodhead could take a backseat to BenJarvus Green-Ellis against the Broncos in Week 15.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.
Watch List: Lance Ball, Isaac Redman, Chauncey Washington
Ball’s 38 snaps led Denver backs in Week 14. He could start seeing more touches if Willis McGahee wears down under his heaviest workload in years. … Redman is a handcuff. … Washington has yet to be promoted from the Cowboys’ practice squad.
Hold Off: Keiland Williams, Evan Royster, Sammy Morris
Kevin Smith (ankle) expects to return this week, sending Williams back to the bench. … Royster is a bench-warmer. … Morris is a 34-year-old with fullback speed. He’s not going to threaten Felix Jones.
Quarterbacks
Jake Locker, Titans - Matt Williamson of ESPN Scouts, Inc. compares Locker to a young Donovan McNabb as an accuracy-challenged passer with a cannon arm and elite athleticism. For the second time in four weeks, Locker came off the bench to infuse life into the Titans passing game, attacking with big plays down the field. Titan Insider’s Terry McCormick believes signs are pointing to Locker starting at Indy against a defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Christian Ponder, Vikings - Ponder was officially pulled for performance reasons against the Lions, but there’s no question that his injured hip affected that performance. As long as Ponder is practicing on Wednesday, there should be little concern that he will last four quarters in a potential shootout versus a Saints defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. With Percy Harvin playing at an elite level, Ponder is a high-upside QB2 option for Week 15.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Rex Grossman, Redskins - As he is wont to do, Grossman bounced back from a disastrous Week 13 performance to post a respectable 18 fantasy points against the Patriots. He’s now cleared 250 yards with two TDs in three of the past four games. While Grossman has attractive matchups against the Giants (third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs) and Vikings (second-most), one can hardly blame fantasy owners for visions of Jason Pierre-Paul and Jason Allen harassing him into a series of pick-sixes and patented sack-fumbles.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a high-risk matchup play.
T.J. Yates, Texans - The most promising sign in Yates’ back-to-back victories over the Falcons and Bengals is that Gary Kubiak hasn’t changed the offense. Yates is running the same plays Matt Schaub did earlier in the season, showing pocket poise, a willingness to scramble, and downfield confidence. He’s not going to repeat those comeback-aided 44 pass attempts, though, so expect a ground-heavy attack against the Panthers’ soft defense in Week 15.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Dan Orlovsky, Colts - Orlovsky’s 350-yard game against the Patriots was clearly a garbage-time aberration, but he’s not quite as bad as he looked against Baltimore’s dominant defense, either. The Colts’ passing game is still in better hands with Orlovsky than Curtis Painter. Back home in Lucas Oil Stadium for Week 15, Orlovsky draws a middle-of-the-road Titans defense that allows the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Watch List: Seneca Wallace, John Skelton
Colt McCoy and Kevin Kolb are both nursing concussions this week. It’s not clear yet if they will be cleared to play in Week 15. Wallace and Skelton are desperation options at best even if they end up starting.
Hold Off: Blaine Gabbert, Joe Webb, J.P. Losman
Gabbert’s improved production came against a Bucs defense that called it quits before halftime. … Webb is headed back to the bench after an impressive relief stint. … Losman is a fantasy non-factor even if Matt Moore (concussion) missed time.
Wide Receivers
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - Bouncing back from a series of early-game drops, Thomas came up big down the stretch for the second straight game. His 13 targets were five more than the next closest receiver, and he’s now led the team in receiving for two straight games while averaging a 5.5/111/1.5 line. While Thomas isn’t the most reliable receiver, the matchup is right in Week 15 against New England’s burnable secondary. No defense has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers or quarterbacks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Jabar Gaffney, Redskins - With Fred Davis out for the season, Redskins tight ends failed to see a single target against the Patriots in Week 14. It was Gaffney who filled Davis’ role, fielding eight targets on his way to a 6/92/1 line. A top-30 fantasy receiver on pace for 64 receptions and 930 yards, Gaffney has juicy matchups against the Giants (second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers) and Vikings (fourth-most) the next two weeks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
James Jones, Packers - Green Bay will go with a committee attack to replace Greg Jennings, but Rotoworld has always believed Jones would be the primary beneficiary of any injury to a starter. Jones led the Packers receivers in Week 14 snaps and should see action in some two-receiver sets and most three-wide formations against the Chiefs. He’s a viable WR3 option against the Chiefs this week.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Randall Cobb, Packers - The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recommends the rookie as “perhaps the one who stands to gain the most” from Greg Jennings’ MCL injury in Green Bay. A poor man’s Percy Harvin, Cobb figures to pick up snaps in the slot where he can use his playmaking ability after the catch. While Cobb is a high-risk WR3 option at Kansas City in Week 15, he’s at least worth rostering to gauge his place in the pecking order.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a roster stash.
Golden Tate, Seahawks - Doug Baldwin is a promising slot receiver, but Tate is the No. 1 option in Seattle despite the Monday night boxcore. Leading the receivers in snaps and targets since Sidney Rice went down for the season, Tate’s playmaking ability has been evident even if he was underutilized in the second of the win over the Rams. Going forward, I’m still playing Tate over Baldwin due the edge in upside.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Titus Young, Lions - The rookie’s 4/87/1 line against the Vikings moved him past Nate Burleson and into the top-50 fantasy receivers for 2011. With defenses going to crazy measures in an effort to stop Calvin Johnson, Young tied for the team lead with seven targets in Week 14. He offers more playmaking ability and fantasy upside than Burleson.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a boom-or-bust matchup play.
Jerome Simpson, Bengals - I’ve recommended steering clear of Simpson all season because Cincinnati’s second receiver is simply not reliable on a week-to-week basis. I wouldn’t be confident starting Simpson even against an injury-ravaged Rams secondary allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, but he’s worth a look for the overmatched fantasy owner looking to land a haymaker against a more talented roster. Whereas a low-upside option like Donald Driver hasn’t topped 100 yards in two and a half years, Simpson has accomplished the feat five times in his past 15 games.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a boom-or-bust play.
Donald Driver, Packers - Even before Greg Jennings’ MCL sprain, Driver had picked up his play over the past month, with three four-catch games. While Driver’s role should remain stable in Week 15 at Kansas City, his fantasy upside is limited by the presence of James Jones and Randall Cobb. Driver hasn’t topped 90 yards since Week 12 of the 2009 season.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a low-upside matchup play.
Devin Aromashodu, Vikings - With Adrian Peterson out of the lineup and Michael Jenkins done for the season, Aromashodu has racked up a whopping 25 targets the past two weeks on his way to 10 catches for 137 yards. The matchup is right this week in a potential shootout with the Saints, but Peterson’s return should mean a run-oriented game plan. This offense won’t support two fantasy receivers most weeks, and Percy Harvin is the clear No. 1.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation matchup play.
Watch List: Riley Cooper, Brandon LaFell, Austin Collie, Jarett Dillard, Kyle Williams
Jeremy Maclin’s hamstring “tightened up” at Miami. If he misses practice time, Cooper could be worth a look in deeper leagues against the Jets elite secondary. … LaFell is starting and blocking well, but he’s not yet producing. … Collie’s production is ticking up with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback. … Dillard led the Jags receivers in Week 14 with Mike Thomas concussed. … Williams and Ted Ginn are splitting production opposite Michael Crabtree.
Hold Off: Kevin Walter, Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy, Donte Stallworth
Walter is coming off a fine game against the Bengals, but T.J. Yates isn’t going to throw 44 times versus the Panthers. … Schilens is nursing a foot injury again while Murphy figures to lose snaps with Denarious Moore (ankle) and/or Jacoby Ford (foot) returning this week. … Stallworth has to prove those 96 yards weren’t due primarily to New England’s overmatched secondary.
Cut Bait: Robert Meachem, Brad Smith, Earl Bennett, Vincent Brown
Dump Meachem if you chased his 100-yard game from Week 13. … Smith was shut out after consecutive games over 70 yards. … Bennett has been an afterthought since Caleb Hanie took over. … Brown has played fewer snaps than Patrick Crayton since Malcom Floyd’s return.
Tight Ends
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - While this stat says as much about the Cowboys as Fasano, it’s worth noting that the Dolphins’ tight end has matched Jason Witten in fantasy points over the past five weeks and exceeded his total over the past six. Coming off a season-high eight targets, Fasano draws a Bills defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. He’s a legit TE1 option.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Dallas Clark, Colts - Clark was rusty in his return from a three-week hiatus, catching just one pass for 12 yards against a Ravens defense that shuts down tight ends. On the bright side, he saw six targets to just one for Jacob Tamme. The matchup is right this week versus a Titans defense that allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Clark isn’t a bad bet for 50+ yards with Dan Orlovsky under center.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Evan Moore, Browns - The ultra-athletic former hoopster led the Browns with 55 yards on four receptions against the Steelers, picking up extra snaps with Ben Watson (concussion) knocked out early. The concussion was Watson’s second in two months, so there’s a decent chance he’ll sit out against the Cardinals. In that scenario, Moore is worth a look as a boom-or-bust option for Week 15.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation play.
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - Lewis is coming off a season-high 77 yards, and he’s been targeted a healthy 8.5 times per game over the past month. The downside is that he’s yet to find the end zone and his quarterback isn’t reliable. The Falcons allow the 19th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Lewis is only an option for the truly desperate.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a desperation play.
Hold Off: Kevin Boss
Chalk Boss’ Week 14 production up to garbage time in a blowout. He’s not a fantasy option against the Lions.
Cut Bait: Jared Cook, Jacob Tamme, Heath Miller
Cook has been held without a catch in consecutive weeks. He’s closer to Ben Troupe than Jermichael Finley. … Tamme saw just one target with Clark back in action. … Miller will have to concentrate on blocking to protect an immobile Ben Roethlisberger.
Defense/Special Teams
Cardinals - New defensive boss Ray Horton is finally starting to receive well-deserved kudos for the impressive performance of his young defense during the current 5-1 stretch. Arizona has held four of the past six opponents under 20 points with a concussed Colt McCoy on the docket for Week 15.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Falcons - Blaine Gabbert’s 217 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14 aren’t a sign of progress. The increased production is purely the result of a Bucs defense that folded up its tent and called it a day before halftime. The Falcons aren’t a turnover generating defense, but there’s a good chance the Jaguars will be held under 10 points and 250 total yards in the Georgia Dome.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Seahawks - Seattle’s D/ST has found the end zone in consecutive weeks heading into an attractive matchup against an offense that has managed just 13 total points in Caleb Hanie’s two starts. The game is too fast for Hanie right now, causing him to panic in the pocket.
