Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Target Watch: Week 15

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The numbers by each name are targets for Weeks’ 8 through 14. And the target totals reflect the last 7 weeks as well. I hope you enjoy!

All snap count data comes from our friends over at Pro Football Focus.

Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald: 5-12-13-9-9-7-8 (63), Andre Roberts: 3-7-7-9-5-6-5 (42), Early Doucet: 6-6-4-10-1-6-4 (37), Jeff King: 3-2-5-0-3-0-4 (17), Chester Taylor: 1-1-3-3-2-0-2 (12), LaRod Stephens-Howling: 1-1-2-0-1-2-2 (9), Rob Housler: 2-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-3-1 (6), Beanie Wells: 0-2-0-1-0-1-1 (5), Demarco Sampson: dnp-0-0-2-0-0-1 (3)

John Skelton needs to be sat every other week so he can start fresh and play well. I really don’t believe that (maybe) but he is extremely inconsistent from week to week. On the average he’s been much better for Larry Fitzgerald’s production as was shown with Fitz’s 8 targets, 7 receptions, 149 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win over a strong 49ers team.

Skelton is more apt to challenge teams vertically which helps out all the wide receivers as their 3 touchdown catches attest. Early Doucet continues to beat out Andre Roberts in fantasy points due to his touchdown prowess. Roberts finally caught his first touchdown of the season but it came on a 2 reception 8 yard performance.

Atlanta Falcons

Roddy White: BYE-9-7-14-13-15-11 (69), Tony Gonzalez: BYE-6-10-6-9-10-11 (52), Harry Douglas: BYE-0-14-4-5-5-3 (31), Julio Jones: BYE-4-5-dnp-0-11-8 (28), Eric Weems: BYE-0-5-3-0-0-0 (8), Michael Palmer: BYE-2-0-1-3-1-1 (8), Michael Turner: BYE-2-2-2-1-0-1 (8), Jacquizz Rodgers: BYE-1-2-0-2-1-2 (8), Jason Snelling: BYE-0-2-2-1-1-1 (7), Mike Cox: BYE-0-3-0-0-0-0 (3)

Matt Ryan had a much better game against the Panthers’ defense than he had against the Texans in Week 13. He was 22 for 38 with 320 yards and 4 touchdowns as he spread the ball around to his big three pass catchers.

Roddy White continues his resurgence with his fourth game in a row over 10 fantasy points compared to his 3 games over 10 points in his first 9 games. Julio Jones broke out for the second time this season with a huge 2 touchdown game. His hamstring has made him seem more boom or bust than he is. He gets plenty of targets when healthy.

Baltimore Ravens

Anquan Boldin: 12-10-9-2-9-4-6 (52), Torrey Smith: 9-9-8-7-3-4-9 (49), Ray Rice: 9-7-10-10-3-3-6 (48), Ed Dickson: 9-5-14-3-2-4-2 (39), Dennis Pitta: 8-8-7-0-2-2-4 (31), Vonta Leach: 1-1-1-2-1-3-1 (10), Ricky Williams: 2-1-3-2-2-0-0 (10), Lee Evans: dnp-dnp-dnp-1-1-3-3 (8)

The Colts defense is just plain awful. They’ve given up the third most rushing yards and easily the worst completion percentage at 72 percent. That’s historically bad. So really the Ravens could do whatever they wanted and they did. But even against the Colts their passing game isn’t potent enough to hold two startable receivers week to week. Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are the only receivers worth risking in good matchups but you can’t count on both getting enough work with the running game being the focus and it is difficult to choose which of the two receivers will get theirs that week. Boldin hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points since week 8 and Smith’s numbers are better but inconsistent.

Buffalo Bills

Stevie Johnson: 9-6-5-8-13-8-10 (59), David Nelson: 5-7-5-4-8-8-6 (43), Brad Smith: 3-0-0-4-7-10-5 (29), Scott Chandler: 2-3-3-6-7-4-dnp (25), C.J. Spiller: 3-0-0-4-3-6-4 (20), Naaman Roosevelt: 1-3-1-2-dnp-2-0 (9), Tashard Choice: dnp-dnp-dnp-1-0-1-4 (6), Derek Hagan: dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp-4 (4), Johnny White: dnp-dnp-dnp-4-0-0-0 (4), Lee Smith: 0-0-0-dnp-0-3-1 (4), Ruvell Martin: 0-0-0-2-1-0-0 (3)

The Bills are in a spiral. The loss of Fred Jackson has really hurt their offensive balance and Ryan Fitzpatrick just isn’t good enough to put the team on his back. But there is one clear winner here and that is Stevie Johnson. After a strong first three weeks of the season where he averaged 14 fantasy points, Johnson went ice cold. In the next 7 games he averaged 6.5 fantasy points but now in the last 3 games (without Jackson) he is averaging 11.6. Fitzpatrick is throwing more and even though it’s not doing his team much good, it is giving Johnson more points.

Carolina Panthers

Steve Smith: 9-BYE-8-10-7-6-8 (48), Greg Olsen: 7-BYE-11-9-3-4-6 (40), Legedu Naanee: 7-BYE-9-5-4-3-5 (33), Jonathan Stewart: 3-BYE-7-6-4-2-9 (31), Brandon LaFell: 2-BYE-2-5-6-4-5 (24), Jeremy Shockey: 3-BYE-1-dnp-3-1-4 (12), DeAngelo Williams: 2-BYE-1-1-0-0-2 (6)

If it wasn’t for Jeremy Shockey I think Greg Olsen could have had a breakout season, but alas Shockey was and is still around so it’s impossible to know if Olsen will get enough looks from week to week. He will most likely finish the season as a top 12 tight end which is a little surprising in itself.

With Cam Newton breaking the single season quarterback rushing touchdown mark I thought I’d take a look at the Panthers’ rushing attempts inside the 5 yard line so far this season. Newton has 14 attempts for 8 touchdowns, Jonathan Stewart has 10 attempts for 1 touchdown and DeAngelo Williams has 2 attempts for 1 touchdown. Unfortunately my data doesn’t differentiate the 1 yard line or closer from the 5 but as long as Newton keeps up this percentage of success he’s going to keep running.

Chicago Bears

Johnny Knox: BYE-1-2-5-10-8-5 (31), Earl Bennett: BYE-5-6-9-4-4-1 (29), Roy Williams: BYE-6-2-8-5-1-2 (24), Kellen Davis: BYE-3-2-1-2-2-1 (11), Devin Hester: BYE-5-0-0-0-4-1 (10), Kahlil Bell: BYE-dnp-dnp-0-0-1-5 (6), Marion Barber: BYE-1-0-0-0-1-4 (6)

Caleb Hanie threw the ball 19 times and only 10 to wide receivers or tight ends. They didn’t even have a shot at stretching the defense. Aaron Rodgers threw 23 times to WR/TEs in his 30 attempts. That is how a passing offense should work I would think. And no, I agree that Hanie is not Rodgers but it’s a good goal to have.

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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham

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