Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Cincinnati's No. 7 defensive ranking and St. Louis' No. 30 mark on offense suggest this will be a low-scoring game, at least for the Rams. The Bengals are sixth in the NFL in sacks, which is going to be problematic for replacement quarterback Kellen Clemens, who's exhibited incredibly shaky pocket presence throughout his six-year career. There's no question that the Rams will struggle to pick up first downs and sustain drives on Sunday. The Bengals' run defense held Arian Foster to 41 yards on 15 rushing attempts in Week 14 and presents a difficult matchup for Steven Jackson. Having managed just 187 yards on his last 62 carries (3.02 YPC), Jackson will be worth benching in favor of a higher-upside option such as Felix Jones or Kevin Smith this weekend.
While A.J. Green is the obvious must-start against St. Louis' talent-deprived secondary, Cedric Benson enters Week 15 as the Bengals' best bet for touchdowns. Essentially a non-factor when facing stout run defenses this season, Benson has instead preyed on the weak. In four matchups with bottom-eight units against the run, CedBen has rolled up three TDs and 388 yards on 81 carries (4.79 YPC). He has 495 yards on 141 attempts (3.51 average) and two scores in his other eight games. 32nd against the run and allowing opponents to average 4.96 yards per carry, the Rams have the poorest defense Benson has faced all year. Consider Benson a rock-solid RB2.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Rams 13
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Early-week indications were that Jake Locker would make his first NFL start, but Matt Hasselbeck quickly saw the writing on the wall. Appearing in four games so far, Locker has averaged a Tom Brady-esque 8.68 yards on 50 pass attempts with four all-purpose touchdowns and no turnovers. Hasselbeck rushed back from his calf injury in time to practice Thursday, and the Titans have promised to keep him in the starting lineup as long as he's healthy. Unfortunately, Hasselbeck has been a drag on Tennessee's offense since early in the season and takes the life out of Nate Washington, Damian Williams, and Jared Cook's fantasy appeal. Barring a pre-game reversal in the quarterback decision making, Chris Johnson is Tennessee's only strong fantasy play in Indy.
The Colts' offense showed its true colors at Baltimore in Week 14, as Dan Orlovsky went 17-for-37, absorbed four sacks, and fumbled three times. No Indianapolis receiver cleared 50 yards. Indy's passing game can't be relied upon against a stout Titans pass defense during fantasy semifinals week, but Donald Brown is worth a look in a flex position after leading Indianapolis' backfield in carries and overall touches for the fifth straight game. Tennessee's defense has struggled against the run recently, allowing Bills, Saints, Bucs, and Falcons backs to pile up 430 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 94 carries (4.57 YPC) over the past month. Brown offers limited upside because he has limited talent, but 14-17 touches are likely in a favorable matchup.
Score Prediction: Titans 24, Colts 14
Seattle @ Chicago
Finally in shape during the final year of his rookie contract, Marshawn Lynch will face his toughest test yet when the Seahawks head to Soldier Field for Sunday's matchup with Chicago's shutdown run defense. Over their last five games, the Bears have permitted just one touchdown and 365 rushing yards on 112 carries (3.26 YPC) to opposing tailbacks. Chicago hasn't done it against chump opponents, either, holding in check Michael Bush, Ryan Mathews, and Willis McGahee during the dominant stretch. Lynch is a top-five fantasy running back on the season, but he threatens to finish on a disappointing note against the Bears and 49ers in Weeks 15 and 16. I suspect Lynch will struggle to generate top-20 running back stats in the last two fantasy weeks.
No Week 15 game has a lower over/under than Seattle-Chicago, and Vegas' 35.5-point projection may even be optimistic. This is a matchup to avoid where possible because it won't produce many points or yards. While much was made of Marion Barber's late-game mental errors in last week's collapse at Denver, fantasy owners should be more concerned in Week 15 with the presence of Kahlil Bell and Seattle's stout front seven. Bell already plays in all passing sets and is an oft-used change-of-pace back on early downs. More often than not, Bell appeared to be the Bears' best tailback option in Week 14. The Seahawks rank 11th against the run. Chicago's backfield offers a limited statistical ceiling this week, and both Barber and Bell would ideally be left on benches.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Seahawks 13
Green Bay @ Kansas City
Greg Jennings' torn MCL will end his fantasy season and leave behind a powder keg of targets for Green Bay's healthy pass catchers. Jennings' 99 targets easily led the Packers through the first 14 weeks, with Jordy Nelson (69) and Jermichael Finley (68) ranking a distant second and third. James Jones and rookie Randall Cobb will see the largest bumps in playing time, as Jones joins the starting lineup and Cobb now plays in the majority of passing situations. Arguably Green Bay's best run-after-catch receiver already, Jones will be a strong WR3 play the rest of the way. The same can be said for Cobb in return-yardage leagues. Despite his Week 14 clunker, Finley will be a top-five Week 15 tight end play with more footballs likely to come his way and the potential to emerge as Green Bay's featured player in the passing game. As for Finley's matchup this week, it's notable that Kansas City has allowed the second most touchdowns in the league to tight ends.
Early deficits and cornerback cushions have something to do with it, but there's no question that Dwayne Bowe has earned an every-week start during the fantasy playoffs. Only four players in the league have been targeted more this season. Playing lights out in his contract year, Bowe's outlook is also improved by interim coach Romeo Crennel's installation of Kyle Orton after the Chiefs suffered through four dead-duck starts under Tyler Palko. Orton has now spent over three weeks in Kansas City's system and is a significantly sharper pocket passer than his predecessor. Bowe is the lone worthwhile fantasy option on the Chiefs, but should be played with confidence.
Score Prediction: Packers 34, Chiefs 20
You've qualified for the semifinals of your fantasy football league, proving yourself to be a cut above the rest of the field. You don't need me telling you to start Arian Foster against the Panthers, or Aaron Rodgers against the sorry Chiefs. You know Legedu Naanee and Jason Avant are weak options on whom you don't want to rely if you're serious about taking home a title.
In this and next week's Matchups columns, I will focus on the one most fantasy-relevant story for each team in the league. We won't waste words discussing whether to start Cam Newton or sit Thomas Jones. You know better.
Saturday Night Football
Dallas @ Tampa Bay
The collapsing Bucs defense has been trounced for an average of 35 points a game over the last five weeks, including last Sunday's 41-point embarrassment in Jacksonville. The Cowboys won't struggle to pour on points Saturday night. While Felix Jones was one of fantasy's biggest early-season disappointments, he couldn't have asked for a more favorable matchup in his return to Dallas' feature back job following DeMarco Murray's year-ending injury. Over their last seven games, the Bucs have been steamrolled for 1,219 yards and 14 TDs on 236 carries (5.17 YPC). Jones will be an every-down back against Tampa because his lone backup is 34-year-old Sammy Morris, who signed off the street Tuesday. Make room for Jones in your fantasy lineup this week.
The Bucs' offense has fallen off to the point that no player on the roster can be played confidently during fantasy semifinals week. LeGarrette Blount would be the best option, but he's squaring off with Dallas' top-eight run defense in a game Tampa Bay threatens to trail early. It's no secret that Blount is worthless when opponents force the Bucs into comeback mode, and it doesn't help that the 247-pound power back's production has gone in the gutter with 93 yards on his last 30 carries (3.1 YPC). Blount is never a terrible bet for a short touchdown, but he certainly has the look of an underwhelming RB2 Saturday night. The aforementioned Jones would be a more appealing bet.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 34, Bucs 16
1:00PM ET Games
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Mark Ingram is expected to miss one more game with a turf-toe injury. The Saints claim Chris Ivory immediately assumes the short-yardage/power-back role when Ingram sits out, but their usage of Ivory has been different from Ingram's in fantasy terms. Whereas Ingram routinely leads New Orleans in red-zone touches when healthy, Ivory is rarely used in scoring position. Here is the team's red-zone distribution in Ingram's three missed games so far: Darren Sproles 5, Pierre Thomas 4, Ivory 2. Thomas has been the Saints' goal-line back, scoring the club's only two red-zone touchdowns from three and nine yards out. Ivory's two red-zone touches have come outside the opposing ten-yard line. No member of the Saints' backfield is an especially desirable fantasy play against Minnesota's top-nine run defense, but based on precedent Thomas is the best bet for TDs, and Sproles for total yardage. Ivory is most likely to post an empty, 11-carry, 50-yard day.
Some Percy Harvin owners have expressed concern that Adrian Peterson's return might cut into their WR1/2's production. It's certainly true that the Vikings' staff pulled out all possible stops to feature Harvin during Peterson's three-game absence. It's also true that Michael Jenkins' year-ending knee injury moved Harvin into the clear-cut featured role in Minnesota's passing game, playing a greater percentage of snaps and operating as Christian Ponder's first read on the vast majority of pass plays. Beneath a dome in a potentially high-scoring affair, I think you can make a fair argument for Harvin as a legit top-five receiver play in Week 15. He's absolutely a must-start.
Score Prediction: Saints 34, Vikings 24
Washington @ NY Giants
While it's likely to be a long day for Washington's passing game as Rex Grossman plays behind an offensive line minus both starting tackles and its left guard, the Redskins' running game should have success in New York. The Giants' No. 22 run defense is fresh off serving up Felix Jones' best performance (16-106) of the season and will be playing with Justin Tuck (toe) at less than 100 percent. Roy Helu has amassed 390 yards on his last 82 carries (4.76 YPC), and last week became the first back in Redskins history to rush for 100 yards in three straight games. It's a good bet that a fourth is in the offing. Over the last three weeks, no NFC running back has touched the football more than Helu. This is a red-hot runner with tremendous volume in a favorable matchup.
The Giants' Week 14 box score is misleading in that Ahmad Bradshaw was benched for the entire first half after missing curfew. Brandon Jacobs operated as New York's feature back before the G-Men resumed their usual timeshare in the second half. Bradshaw is expected to return to the starting lineup this week and will be a superior fantasy option to Jacobs. When Bradshaw and Jacobs have both entered weeks healthy and avoided in-game injuries and suspensions this season (five-game sample), Bradshaw has averaged 22 touches per game compared to Jacobs' 12. While neither Giants back is an overwhelmingly attractive Week 15 fantasy option, the smart money is on Bradshaw getting more touches and yards versus Washington's No. 17 run defense.
Score Prediction: Giants 24, Redskins 20
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Cincinnati's No. 7 defensive ranking and St. Louis' No. 30 mark on offense suggest this will be a low-scoring game, at least for the Rams. The Bengals are sixth in the NFL in sacks, which is going to be problematic for replacement quarterback Kellen Clemens, who's exhibited incredibly shaky pocket presence throughout his six-year career. There's no question that the Rams will struggle to pick up first downs and sustain drives on Sunday. The Bengals' run defense held Arian Foster to 41 yards on 15 rushing attempts in Week 14 and presents a difficult matchup for Steven Jackson. Having managed just 187 yards on his last 62 carries (3.02 YPC), Jackson will be worth benching in favor of a higher-upside option such as Felix Jones or Kevin Smith this weekend.
While A.J. Green is the obvious must-start against St. Louis' talent-deprived secondary, Cedric Benson enters Week 15 as the Bengals' best bet for touchdowns. Essentially a non-factor when facing stout run defenses this season, Benson has instead preyed on the weak. In four matchups with bottom-eight units against the run, CedBen has rolled up three TDs and 388 yards on 81 carries (4.79 YPC). He has 495 yards on 141 attempts (3.51 average) and two scores in his other eight games. 32nd against the run and allowing opponents to average 4.96 yards per carry, the Rams have the poorest defense Benson has faced all year. Consider Benson a rock-solid RB2.
Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Rams 13
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Early-week indications were that Jake Locker would make his first NFL start, but Matt Hasselbeck quickly saw the writing on the wall. Appearing in four games so far, Locker has averaged a Tom Brady-esque 8.68 yards on 50 pass attempts with four all-purpose touchdowns and no turnovers. Hasselbeck rushed back from his calf injury in time to practice Thursday, and the Titans have promised to keep him in the starting lineup as long as he's healthy. Unfortunately, Hasselbeck has been a drag on Tennessee's offense since early in the season and takes the life out of Nate Washington, Damian Williams, and Jared Cook's fantasy appeal. Barring a pre-game reversal in the quarterback decision making, Chris Johnson is Tennessee's only strong fantasy play in Indy.
The Colts' offense showed its true colors at Baltimore in Week 14, as Dan Orlovsky went 17-for-37, absorbed four sacks, and fumbled three times. No Indianapolis receiver cleared 50 yards. Indy's passing game can't be relied upon against a stout Titans pass defense during fantasy semifinals week, but Donald Brown is worth a look in a flex position after leading Indianapolis' backfield in carries and overall touches for the fifth straight game. Tennessee's defense has struggled against the run recently, allowing Bills, Saints, Bucs, and Falcons backs to pile up 430 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 94 carries (4.57 YPC) over the past month. Brown offers limited upside because he has limited talent, but 14-17 touches are likely in a favorable matchup.
Score Prediction: Titans 24, Colts 14
Seattle @ Chicago
Finally in shape during the final year of his rookie contract, Marshawn Lynch will face his toughest test yet when the Seahawks head to Soldier Field for Sunday's matchup with Chicago's shutdown run defense. Over their last five games, the Bears have permitted just one touchdown and 365 rushing yards on 112 carries (3.26 YPC) to opposing tailbacks. Chicago hasn't done it against chump opponents, either, holding in check Michael Bush, Ryan Mathews, and Willis McGahee during the dominant stretch. Lynch is a top-five fantasy running back on the season, but he threatens to finish on a disappointing note against the Bears and 49ers in Weeks 15 and 16. I suspect Lynch will struggle to generate top-20 running back stats in the last two fantasy weeks.
No Week 15 game has a lower over/under than Seattle-Chicago, and Vegas' 35.5-point projection may even be optimistic. This is a matchup to avoid where possible because it won't produce many points or yards. While much was made of Marion Barber's late-game mental errors in last week's collapse at Denver, fantasy owners should be more concerned in Week 15 with the presence of Kahlil Bell and Seattle's stout front seven. Bell already plays in all passing sets and is an oft-used change-of-pace back on early downs. More often than not, Bell appeared to be the Bears' best tailback option in Week 14. The Seahawks rank 11th against the run. Chicago's backfield offers a limited statistical ceiling this week, and both Barber and Bell would ideally be left on benches.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Seahawks 13
Green Bay @ Kansas City
Greg Jennings' torn MCL will end his fantasy season and leave behind a powder keg of targets for Green Bay's healthy pass catchers. Jennings' 99 targets easily led the Packers through the first 14 weeks, with Jordy Nelson (69) and Jermichael Finley (68) ranking a distant second and third. James Jones and rookie Randall Cobb will see the largest bumps in playing time, as Jones joins the starting lineup and Cobb now plays in the majority of passing situations. Arguably Green Bay's best run-after-catch receiver already, Jones will be a strong WR3 play the rest of the way. The same can be said for Cobb in return-yardage leagues. Despite his Week 14 clunker, Finley will be a top-five Week 15 tight end play with more footballs likely to come his way and the potential to emerge as Green Bay's featured player in the passing game. As for Finley's matchup this week, it's notable that Kansas City has allowed the second most touchdowns in the league to tight ends.
Early deficits and cornerback cushions have something to do with it, but there's no question that Dwayne Bowe has earned an every-week start during the fantasy playoffs. Only four players in the league have been targeted more this season. Playing lights out in his contract year, Bowe's outlook is also improved by interim coach Romeo Crennel's installation of Kyle Orton after the Chiefs suffered through four dead-duck starts under Tyler Palko. Orton has now spent over three weeks in Kansas City's system and is a significantly sharper pocket passer than his predecessor. Bowe is the lone worthwhile fantasy option on the Chiefs, but should be played with confidence.
Score Prediction: Packers 34, Chiefs 20
Carolina @ Houston
Ben Tate is always a dicey flex option because he needs big leads for worthwhile workloads and satisfactory yardage. While the Panthers have shown the ability to score consistently and stay competitive even when they lose (six of Carolina's nine losses are by eight points or fewer), they are also 23rd against the run, allow over 4.5 yards a carry, and have permitted an average of more than one rushing score per game. The matchup is obviously inviting. The game's outcome is among this week's least predictable. While Tate offers 12-15 carry, 90-110 yard potential, he also presents significant risk. I'd consider him over someone appearing to be short on Week 15 upside like C.J. Spiller or Marion Barber. Fantasy owners just need to be aware that Tate is a gamble.
Appearing on Yahoo's Shutdown Corner podcast this week, NFL Films guru Greg Cosell deemed Houston's Johnathan Joseph the second best press-man cornerback in the league, behind only Darrelle Revis. Joseph has flashed the ability to take No. 1 receivers out of games without safety help over the top. The relatively bad news for Carolina's Steve Smith is that he has a difficult one-on-one Week 15 matchup. The good news is that this might be Smith's best opportunity all year to avoid double teams because of the Texans' confidence in Joseph's man-coverage skills. During the fantasy semifinals, I'd find it awfully difficult to bench the NFC's leader in receiving yardage.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Panthers 21
Miami @ Buffalo
Reggie Bush is the Dolphins' feature back and rookie Daniel Thomas is his change of pace, and those notions couldn't have been reinforced to a greater degree than they were during last week's loss to Philadelphia. Sprinkled in intermittently on early-game possessions, Thomas became an almost complete non-factor as Miami's deficit grew in the 26-10 loss. The touch distribution was 10:2 in Bush's favor from the middle of the third quarter on. Bush piled up 130 yards on 14 carries and five catches, while Thomas managed 13 yards on his nine opportunities to get the football. Thomas is off the radar as a potential Week 15 fantasy play. As Bush squares off with Buffalo's 25th-ranked run defense, he'll be a top-15 running back option with a slight boost in PPR formats.
I've touched on the topic enough in this space that you already know if you read these Matchups columns, but Miami's defense is incredibly difficult to run against. LeSean McCoy has consistently been the best running back in football this season, yet the Dolphins still held him to 38 yards on 27 attempts in Week 14. Now ranked third versus the run, the Fins have allowed 592 yards on 192 carries (3.08 YPC) to opposing tailbacks over their past nine games. McCoy is the only back who's scored against them during that span. Regressing since a respectable start as Buffalo's top back, C.J. Spiller will struggle to find running room and is best left on fantasy benches this week.
Score Prediction: Bills 17, Dolphins 13
4:05PM ET Game
Detroit @ Oakland
The Raiders' run defense has been bad for most of the year, but it's hit rock bottom over the past six games. Dating back to its Week 9 bye, Oakland has silver-plattered 738 yards on 133 carries (5.55 YPC) to opposing tailbacks, along with five rushing touchdowns. While it's reasonable to be somewhat concerned with Kevin Smith's ankle, the facts that he has impressed in practice and is now 14 days removed from his last game appearance should instill some confidence. The cake-walk matchup makes Smith a prime RB2 for fantasy owners in pursuit of Week 15 upside. Smith has been the Lions' every-down back when healthy, so even in the unlikely event he struggles on the ground, Smith can compensate with receiving production. I'd be excited about playing him. The Lions’ offense won’t struggle for ball movement Sunday, setting up scoring opportunities for Smith.
While Oakland's offense is still scuffling to get healthy at the skill positions, the Lions' defense is almost all the way back to full strength. Difference-making inside rusher Ndamukong Suh has returned from suspension and makes everyone around him more effective. LCB Chris Houston (knee) practiced all week and should play in Oakland. Denarius Moore's return from an ankle/foot injury can't hurt, but Carson Palmer is going to be under heavy duress Sunday and is playing too poorly to be trusted in standard fantasy leagues. Here are Palmer's stats from his last three games: 65-of-120 (54.2%) for 821 yards (6.84 YPA), three touchdowns, and six interceptions. All three games were against defenses ranked 25th or worse against the pass. The Lions rank ninth.
Score Prediction: Lions 30, Raiders 20
4:15PM ET Games
Cleveland @ Arizona
When NT Dan Williams went out for the season with two fractures in his left arm in Week 11, I expected Arizona's run defense to experience a drop-off. It hasn't happened. The Cardinals have inserted 6-foot-3, 305-pound former Steelers reserve Nick Eason at nose tackle and suddenly have one of the league's most improved defenses. Since Williams' injury, Arizona has held the previously hot running games of Dallas, San Francisco, and St. Louis to a combined 258 yards on 63 carries (4.09 YPC) over the last three weeks. The Cards have allowed just one rushing score during that span. Peyton Hillis is off the Week 15 injury report and expected to start, but I worry about Cleveland generating ball movement against an underrated defense with Seneca Wallace at quarterback. Hillis may also lose touches to Montario Hardesty and Chris Ogbonnaya. Hillis isn't a terrible flex option, but he's also probably not a great bet to steer you toward a fantasy title.
Beanie Wells has predictably struggled in terms of yards per carry during back-to-back matchups with the Cowboys and 49ers' stout run defenses. This week should get Wells' per-play stats back on track. In their last seven games, the Browns have been roughed up for 1,170 yards and seven touchdowns on 222 rushing attempts (5.27 YPC) by opposing tailbacks. It's an average of over 167 rushing yards and one rushing score per game. Wells' fantasy owners need to shake off his recent sluggish performances and get Beanie into Week 15 lineups. This should be an easy one.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 23, Browns 13
NY Jets @ Philadelphia
We've touched on it in this space the past two weeks, and coach Rex Ryan discussed it in his Wednesday presser: Shonn Greene has turned his season around. While Greene is never going to be a dynamic NFL runner, he's certainly capable of swallowing up every blocked yard and possesses enough leg drive to carry linebackers and defensive backs after contact. Greene has done that since midseason, amassing 583 yards and four scores on his last 118 carries (4.94 YPC). Perhaps most promising for Greene's value has been his expanded role in the passing game, hauling in three receptions in each of the past three games even with usual passing-down specialists LaDainian Tomlinson and/or Joe McKnight in the lineup. Greene will give a smallish Eagles front seven matchup fits because it's been built to get up field and rush the passer, not plug the run. Over the past two weeks, Philadelphia has allowed 269 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 51 carries (5.27 YPC) to enemy tailbacks. Greene is a rock-solid RB2 and rising.
The Eagles' offensive line was shredded by the Dolphins in Week 14, serving up four sacks and six hits on Michael Vick. Vick conceded this week that his previously cracked ribs still aren't 100 percent, and top receiver Jeremy Maclin's hamstring obviously isn't after it tightened up during last week's second-half break in action, rendering Maclin a non-factor for the final two quarters (0 targets). DeSean Jackson plays when he wants to play. Now facing the league's sixth-ranked pass defense, a unit that has allowed the second fewest passing touchdowns in football, Vick is difficult to support as a QB1. Here are some borderline quarterbacks I'd play over Vick in Week 15: Tim Tebow, Ben Roethlisberger (if he starts), Jake Locker (if he starts), and Christian Ponder.
Score Prediction: Jets 20, Eagles 17
New England @ Denver
The Broncos left 120 passing yards and a 55-yard scoring bomb on the field last week due to five blatant drops. Two more of Tim Tebow's throws should have been caught by Matt Willis and Eric Decker. Had Denver converted the most glaring receiver miscues, we would have spent the past week discussing Tebow's first career 350-yard, two-touchdown day and whether to consider him a top-five fantasy quarterback in Week 15. Against the Bears, Denver's coaching staff openly acknowledged that the shotgun-spread is the best way for the offense to create ball movement. 31 of the Broncos' final 33 offensive plays came in the 'gun with three or more wideouts, and they stuck with the wide-open, aggressive formations into and through overtime rather than resuming the usual arch-conservative, ball-control mentality. Be it due to an early deficit or more cognizant game plan from John Fox & Co., I expect Tebow's shackles to be removed in Denver's biggest game to date. The receivers are sure to be open against New England's incompetent defensive backs, and I'd feel very good about Tebow as a standard-league fantasy starter in this matchup. The Broncos are going to need to score points to be competitive in this game.
Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Wes Welker are obvious every-week starters, but this game sets up particularly well for Aaron Hernandez to break out. One of Welker and Gronk is likely to get the Champ Bailey treatment -- we won't know which until kickoff -- and Deion Branch (groin) is in danger of missing Sunday's game. Hernandez will be the heavy favorite for targets outside the numbers. And make no mistake: Hernandez is a wideout, not a tight end, in that he rarely lines up on the line of scrimmage. Offenses have routinely picked on Broncos RCB Andre' Goodman this season, and Hernandez figures to be in his and rookie FS Quinton Carter's coverage for most of the day. Hitting his stride since a midseason knee injury, Hernandez has five-plus receptions in three straight weeks. I like his chances of leading New England in catches and yards in Week 15.
Score Prediction: Patriots 35, Broncos 30
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore @ San Diego
Philip Rivers is playing better football late in the season, as Gregg Rosenthal noted in this week's Rankings column. I just wouldn't bet he'll do well against the Ravens. Be aware that Rivers' back-to-back season-best games came against Jacksonville and Buffalo defenses that rank 23rd and 32nd in sacks, essentially giving San Diego's injury-depleted offensive line a free pass. Both the Jags and Bills played without at least two starters in the secondary. San Diego's front five and its quarterback will be in for a much longer day against a Ravens unit that leads the league in sacks and fields a top-five pass defense. Whereas I was excited about Rivers and his receivers in Week 14, the opposite can be said this Sunday. The Chargers are unlikely to score many points.
Anquan Boldin is slowing down late in the season for a second straight year, managing a 42-yard average in his last five games after averaging over 78 yards in the initial eight. The Chargers are well equipped to keep Boldin in check after the catch with big, physical cornerbacks (Antoine Cason 6'1/195, Quentin Jammer 6'0/204). Per Pro Football Focus, Jammer and Cason have combined to miss just 12 tackles all season. They've made 85 collectively. Ranked 26th among receivers in fantasy scoring, Boldin is just a low-end WR3 in this matchup. San Diego's secondary does struggle with smaller, quicker outside receivers (see Denarius Moore 5-123-2, Deion Branch 8-129, Johnny Knox 3-97-1), so perhaps rookie Torrey Smith is worth a look for deep leaguers.
Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Chargers 17
Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
This game pits the NFL's No. 2 defense (Steelers) against No. 4 (49ers), and both offenses are dealing with key skill-position injuries. Ben Roethlisberger (high ankle sprain) is a game-time decision. Whether the Niners admit it or not, Frank Gore (knee, shoulder, ankle) isn't at full health. I think it's safe to expect a low-scoring game ala San Francisco's 16-6 loss to Baltimore in Week 12, and Gore's limited recent workloads are working against him in addition to Pittsburgh's shutdown run defense. "He's got some things," explained coach Jim Harbaugh, referring to Gore's injuries this week. "He's not 100%. And we have other backs." Over its last six games, the Steelers' defense has permitted one score and 481 yards on 151 rushing attempts (3.18 YPC). Due to matchup, health, and workload concerns, I’d feel comfortable benching Gore in favor of higher-upside options on Saturday and Sunday.
I think the smart money is still on Big Ben starting Monday night, but several plugged-in national reporters are on the record predicting that he won't play. Hopefully, we'll have more updates and a better read on his status prior to the weekend. While both Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace would have favorable fantasy outlooks in the event Roethlisberger starts, they'll be much less desirable should 37-year-old Charlie Batch get the nod. The 49ers' weakness is in the secondary, but Batch would be considerably less likely to keep the sticks moving and hit big plays than Big Ben. The best advice I can give is to keep a close eye on this situation. Rotoworld will be monitoring closely.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, 49ers 10