It's the Matchup, Stupid

Jabar Gaffney
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Randall Cobb
Golden Tate
Greg Little
David Nelson
Andre Roberts

Tight Ends
Jared Cook
Todd Heap
Kyle Rudolph
Jacob Tamme

Defense/Special Teams
Titans
Seahawks
Eagles

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Chiefs - It’s no coincidence that Kansas City racked up a season-high 438 yards of offense in Orton’s first start. He’s not only a far sight better than Tyler Palko and a superior passer to Matt Cassel, but also boosted by an above-average wide receiver corps. Orton has excellent matchups the final two weeks against the Raiders and Broncos, allowing the third- and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Rex Grossman, Redskins - Matchups don’t get any better than Grossman’s for Week 16. A Vikings secondary playing without five of its six best players gave up the first ever game of 400 yards, five TDs, zero interceptions, and an 80 percent completion rate two weeks after Tim Tebow exploded for 35 points. Since the Week 9 bye, Minnesota’s defense has surrendered an average of 28 fantasy points, 253 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs to opposing quarterbacks. Grossman is a borderline QB1 option this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Jake Locker, Titans - Matt Hasselbeck will start this week as long as his calf injury doesn’t flare up in practices. It’s no longer because Hasselbeck gives the Titans a better chance to win, but merely deference to his position as team leader while a playoff berth remains a slim possibility. If Tennessee gets officially knocked out, Locker could start the season finale at Houston. The impressive rookie sports a 99.4 passer rating, 8.2 YPA, and 4:0 TD-to-INT ratio on 66 attempts in three relief appearances.

Recommendation: Should be owned in two-quarterback leagues.

Matt Flynn, Packers - The upset loss at Kansas City means the Packers have a good reason to rest starters in the season finale versus the Lions provided they secure homefield advantage by beating the Hanie-McCown Bears this week. We won’t have a good read on Flynn’s playing time for another week, but it’s certainly conceivable that he could be playing 3+ quarters against a Lions team that may have already locked up its wild card spot.

Recommendation: Worth a look as insurance.

Seneca Wallace, Browns - Wallace is expected to draw the start over Colt McCoy this week, but it’s a brutal matchup against a Ravens defense sure to be motivated in a home game after being torched in Week 15. It doesn’t get any better for Wallace in the season finale versus a Steelers team likely to be playing for the best possible playoff matchup.

Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.

Watch List: John Skelton, Chase Daniel, Chris Redman

Skelton’s Week 16 status hinges on Kevin Kolb’s concussion symptoms. … Daniel isn’t likely to get a long look as the Saints must win out and hope for a 49ers loss to land a bye. … Redman could end up with significant playing time in Week 17.

Hold Off: Kellen Clemens, Josh McCown

Always in danger of a faceplant, Clemens squares off against the hard-hitting Steelers and 49ers in the final two weeks. … McCown may be even worse than Caleb Hanie.

Cut Bait: T.J. Yates, Christian Ponder, Caleb Hanie

Yates and Ponder can no longer be trusted as QB2 options after their Week 15 performances. … Hanie is a good bet to get yanked even if manages to hold onto the starting job this week.

Running Backs

Kahlil Bell, Bears - Week 15 looked like an official changing of the guard in the Bears backfield. Marion Barber only touched the ball twice in the second half while Bell racked up 108 total yards on 20 touches against the Seahawks. Bell ended up playing 43 snaps to Barber’s 17, and the Chicago Tribune suggests Bell will draw the start against the Packers this week. He’s worthy of low-end RB2/flex status in PPR formats.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Lance Ball, Broncos - Coach John Fox downplayed Willis McGahee’s hamstring tweak, but the veteran back reached behind his leg when the injury happened. We won’t have a good read on his status for Saturday’s game until later in the week. Those owners counting on McGahee as a RB2 should have Ball rostered as insurance against a Bills defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

Recommendation: Worth a look as injury insurance.

Donald Brown, Colts - Averaging 5.1 yards per carry on the season while coming off a career-high 161 yards, Brown remains unowned in more than half of CBSSports.com leagues. Fantasy’s No. 18 back over the past five weeks, Brown is merely a flex option against a Texans defense allowing the 31st-most points to opposing tail backs.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.

Stevan Ridley, Patriots - The rookie led New England’s backfield in carries and yards while outplaying BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Week 15. The last time that happened, Green-Ellis went right back to the lead-back role. Ridley can’t be counted on for more than a handful of carries in a given week.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Sammy Morris, Cowboys - In an interesting scheduling twist, the Cowboys’ 4:00 ET game versus the Eagles could be meaningless to their playoff chances if the Giants beat the Jets in the 1:00 ET game. Under that scenario, Dallas would take the division with a win at New York in Week 17 and surrender the division with a loss. Felix Jones will surely start against Philly, but there’s a chance that Morris could be carrying the load from the second quarter on. He can obviously be counted on as no more than a desperation fantasy play.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Jason Snelling, Falcons - Regardless of the Week 16 outcome at New Orleans, the Falcons could be locked into a wild-card road game by the season finale. That being the case, Michael Turner (groin) could be rested for most or all of Week 17 against a Bucs defense that can’t stop the run.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Chris Ivory, Saints - Unless the Saints fall to the Falcons at home this week, they will be playing to win against the Panthers in Week 17. In which case, Ivory won’t be a good bet for 20+ carries in the finale. Barring a chance in Mark Ingram’s (turf toe) status, Ivory remains a low-upside flex option.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

John Kuhn, Packers - Green Bay’s upset loss to the Chiefs significantly increases the odds that coach Mike McCarthy will sit starters in the finale versus Detroit. Kuhn is a prime candidate for carries in Week 17, as James Starks (ankle) and Ryan Grant (age) will need the rest.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Evan Royster, Jamie Harper, Kendall Hunter, Jacquizz Rodgers, Isaac Redman

There’s talk out of Washington that Roy Helu’s workload could be limited over the final two games now that he’s slowed by toe and knee injuries. Royster isn’t a fantasy option unless Helu sits out altogether. … Chris Johnson’s ankle sprain isn’t serious; don’t rush out to grab Harper. … If the Saints and 49ers both win this week, the Niners will still have to play to win versus the Rams in the finale. Hunter can’t count on a heavy workload. … Rodgers and Redman are unlikely to see a major increase in touches.

Hold Off: Toby Gerhart, Thomas Jones

Gerhart’s two touchdowns in Week 15 were a fluke. Now that Adrian Peterson is back, he has no value beyond handcuff. … Jones’ 3.2 YPC last week was his highest total in a month. He’s still running on fumes.

Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas, Broncos - The NFL’s leader with 338 yards in December, Thomas is still owned in less than 50 percent of CBSSports.com leagues. As the go-to receiver for a primary-read QB, Thomas has 33 targets to Eric Decker’s 13 over the past three weeks. In fact, he’s accounted for nearly 45 percent of Tim Tebow’s pass attempts over that span. "I've been real impressed with him," coach John Fox said Monday. Locked in as a starter, Thomas played 57-of-60 snaps in Week 15 compared to just 28 for Eddie Royal. Run him out there as a top-20 option at Buffalo for fantasy’s Championship Week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

 

Jabar Gaffney, Redskins - “Ever since Florida, he’s been my guy,” Rex Grossman said Sunday of his tight connection with Gaffney. The Redskins’ leading receiver is tied for 23rd in fantasy points, having topped 70 yards in all but the Darrelle Revis game over the past five weeks. Squaring off against an injury-depleted Vikings secondary that has surrendered monster games to Lance Moore, Titus Young, and Demaryius Thomas the past three weeks, Gaffney is a top-25 option for Championship Week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. 

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders - I’ve covered several of DHB’s big games for Rotoworld this season. Week 15 versus the Lions was the first time in three years that I saw reason to believe the former No. 7 overall pick can be an impact player in this league. Detroit’s secondary is porous at this point, but Heyward-Bey was a tackle-breaking monster after the catch while racking up career-highs in receptions (8) and yards (155). Locked in as Carson Palmer’s No. 1 receiver, Heyward-Bey played 63 snaps last week compared to 35 for Denarius Moore. He’s a legit WR3 option for the final two weeks.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.

Randall Cobb, Packers - The loss at Kansas City should have coach Mike McCarthy thinking twice about playing his starters in the season finale versus the Lions. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver are obvious candidates for rest, which would leave the rookie as Matt Flynn’s top receiver for part -- or perhaps even all -- of Week 17. Cobb is worth stashing in leagues that utilize the final week.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Golden Tate, Seahawks - Tate has led Seattle receivers in snaps for all three games and fantasy production in two-of-three since Sidney Rice was placed on injured reserve. Doug Baldwin’s impressive rookie season notwithstanding, Tate is the No. 1 receiver in this offense going forward. His next two opponents, the 49ers and Cardinals, have allowed the 12th-most and 10th-most points respectively to opposing fantasy receivers.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Greg Little, Browns - Perhaps it was no coincidence that Seneca Wallace was under center, but the drop-prone rookie finally broke out with a 5/131/1 line at Arizona. Promising as that performance may be, Little draws the Ravens and Steelers in prohibitive matchups over the final two weeks. He’s only an option for the desperate fantasy owner.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

David Nelson, Bills - Nelson’s six receptions and 60 yards against the Dolphins were his most in two months. He’s only a WR3 option -- and an iffy one at that -- if Stevie Johnson experiences a setback with his groin in practices this week. Johnson is optimistic that he’ll play versus the Broncos, but coach Chan Gailey is taking more of a wait-and-see approach.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Andre Roberts, Cardinals - Finally outproducing Early Doucet, Roberts has posted 28 receptions for 354 yards and six catches of 20+ yards over his last seven games compared to 13 receptions for 133 yards and zero catches of 20+ yards over his first seven. He remains a low-upside fantasy option for Week 16 at Cincinnati.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Watch List: Jerricho Cotchery, Harry Douglas, Danario Alexander

Cotchery played 58 snaps Monday night compared to just nine for Hines Ward. … The Falcons could be resting Roddy White and/or Julio Jones for the majority of Week 17 if the pieces fall into place. … Alexander has regained his starting job from Brandon Gibson.

Hold Off: Lavelle Hawkins, Roy Williams, Earl Bennett, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Louis Murphy

The Titans passed the ball on a ridiculous 51 of Hawkins 54 snaps while playing from behind at Indy. That won’t happen again. Hawkins is clearly behind Nate Washington and Damian Williams in the pecking order. … Williams and Bennett are locked in as the starters with Johnny Knox out and Devin Hester banged up. Neither is trustworthy with poor QB play in Chicago. … Heyward-Bey is the only Raiders receiver worthy of a fantasy start right now.

Cut Bait: Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu

Tight Ends

Jared Cook, Titans - Those who have been following along for weeks realize there’s very little predictability here. Coming off back-to-back catchless games, Cook exploded for season-highs across the board with 11 targets, nine receptions, and 103 yards against the Colts in Week 15. The Titans are once again looking to get Cook more involved in the offense, but he remains a hit-or-miss fantasy option versus the Jags.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Todd Heap, Cardinals - Finally healthy after battling a hamstring injury for two months, Heap broke out for season-highs in receptions (7) and yards (69) against the Browns in Week 15. The Cardinals were playing from behind and defensive attention was focused on Larry Fitzgerald, so there is plenty of reason to doubt Heap can repeat that performance at Cincinnati. Desperate owners can hang on their hat on the fact that the Bengals have twice given up 100-yard games to tight ends this year.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - This one is a shot in the dark for a player who hasn’t topped 50 yards in a game all year. The sure-handed athletic rookie is a primary red-zone read for Christian Ponder, though, and he played more snaps than Visanthe Shiancoe last week for the first time all season. Those snaps should increase again this week versus the Redskins as the Vikes look to the 2012 season. The Redskins and Bears allow the third- and fifth-most points to opposing tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Jacob Tamme, Colts - Dallas Clark (neck) was listed as a non-participation in Monday’s walkthrough, leaving his status in doubt for Thursday’s game versus the Texans. Tamme is on track to start, though it’s a tough matchup against a defense that allows the 29th-most points to opposing fantasy tight ends.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.

Cut Bait: Jake Ballard

Ballard sustained an injury to his PCL, leaving his status for Week 16 in doubt.

Defense/Special Teams

Titans - Tennessee is hosting a quarterback who had more lost fumbles than net passing yards, first downs, or drives across midfield by early in the third quarter of last week’s game. Blaine Gabbert’s skittish pocket presence and lack of awareness make him a dream matchup for opposing defenses.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Seahawks - This screams “let-down game” for the 49ers on a short week at a Seattle, coming off a big nationally televised win over the Steelers. The Seahawks now boast a Top-10 fantasy defense with 12 interceptions, 15 sacks, and three defensive scores in the past five games.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.

Eagles - Dropped in many leagues after a disappointing first half of the season, Philly has rejoined the top-five fantasy defenses thanks to a whopping 24 sacks over the past six weeks. It’s a risky play at Dallas with Tony Romo playing at a peak level, but this is now one of the hottest teams in the NFL.

Recommendation: Worth a look as a roll of the dice.

 

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter.