Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Stick with Smith

Saturday, December 24, 2011

1:00PM ET Games

NY Giants @ NY Jets

Victor Cruz has produced at an elite enough level that it's at least worth pondering whether the Jets might give him the Darrelle Revis treatment in Saturday’s game. Precedent says probably not. All season long, defenses have assigned top corners to Hakeem Nicks' side, along with rolled coverage. Cruz also plays in the slot in three-receiver sets, and Revis rarely covers opposing inside receivers. No Giants wideout moves around as much or is as tough to follow defensively as Victor Cruz. For most of this game, my expectation is that Revis will cover Nicks while Antonio Cromartie plays strictly the outside corner spot opposite them, and Cruz deals with either slot corner Kyle Wilson or dime back Donald Strickland in obvious passing sets. From a matchup standpoint, Cruz will be the favorite to lead the Giants in receiving on Saturday.

Game flow got the best of Shonn Greene in Week 15 as the Eagles jumped out to a 28-0 second-quarter lead. Forced to play from behind, the Jets used the run game as a change of pace only during the final two quarters, while also losing the time-of-possession battle. It wasn't a good recipe for Greene's fantasy stats. He should rebound against the Giants. With a defense designed based on up-field pass rush as opposed to gap control, the G-Men rank 22nd in the NFL against the run and surrender 4.53 yards per rushing attempt. Barring in-game injury, it's almost inevitable that Greene will post solid, RB2-caliber numbers in this matchup. The volume is sure to be there, Greene has played at a high level since midseason, and the opponent struggles to stop the run.

Score Prediction: Jets 21, Giants 20

Cleveland @ Baltimore

The Ravens maintain a slim lead atop the AFC North, but they'll have to win out for things to stay that way. Top division foe Pittsburgh faces 2-12 St. Louis and this same 4-10 Browns squad in its final two games. Baltimore travels to Cincinnati in Week 17, so realistically the Steelers should be considered the slight favorites to win the division. Regardless, a blueprint for stomping Cleveland was established by Baltimore in Week 13. Particularly after losing Anquan Boldin to a multi-week knee injury, there is little reason to believe the Ravens would veer from the distinctly smash-mouth strategy. The Ravens rocked the Browns with a 55:24 run-to-pass ratio, as Ray Rice and Ricky Williams rushed for a season-high 280 combined yards. Some regression off those rushing numbers is inevitable in this game, but the bottom line is that Baltimore's plan of attack is likely to be run-heavy and of the low-percentage variety in the rare instances Joe Flacco drops back to pass. The Ravens can win this game in the trenches. Torrey Smith and Lee Evans are unappealing WR3s. (Smith actually matched up with Joe Haden for most of the aforementioned Week 13 game.) Ed Dickson is off the radar. Flacco is a two-QB league option. Rice is a top-three fantasy running back play.

The Ravens were beaten so soundly in Ray Lewis' Week 15 return that it's fair to wonder if they might be better off starting Dannell Ellerbe at middle linebacker instead. The Chargers gashed Baltimore with the run, piling up 145 rushing yards and three rushing TDs. And make no mistake: Ryan Mathews was the key to San Diego's win. I don't typically condone starting running backs against Baltimore, but Peyton Hillis may have the Ravens right where he wants them. Don't forget that his 2010 breakout game (22-144-1, 7-36) came against Lewis' defense in Week 3 last year, and Seneca Wallace just so happened to be quarterbacking the Browns at the time. Wallace simply creates more ball movement than Colt McCoy, making things happen with his legs and presenting no downgrade in terms of passing skills. Montario Hardesty did not receive a Week 15 touch and is no threat to Hillis' workload after falling behind Chris Ogbonnaya on the depth chart. Three weeks ago, I would've said there's no chance starting Hillis against Baltimore would be a good idea in fantasy title games. It's still not the most desirable move, but I’d feel better about it now.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Browns 17

Miami @ New England

With six straight victories, the red-hot Patriots have catapulted themselves into the driver's seat for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Houston are all one game back, however, so New England must win out to lock it up. They won't take Miami lightly. The Pats attacked the Fins with a pass-first approach in their Week 1 tilt, avoiding Miami's stout front seven and targeting a secondary vulnerable in coverage besides LCB Vontae Davis. New England's final pass-to-run ratio was 48:22, as Tom Brady threw for 517 yards and four touchdowns. Bill Belichick's game plans aren't typically predictable, but this is still the best formula to defeat the Dolphins. Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez should be locked into fantasy lineups. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the rest of New England's running game should be on the bench.

The Pats have an edge in this game because they pose so many matchup problems offensively, but the Dolphins can stay competitive because New England's defense simply can't stop anyone. The secondary is as bad as advertised, and losing sack leader Andre Carter for the season will make life even tougher on an already overmatched back end. Brandon Marshall has at least 97 yards in each of his last two meetings with the Patriots. Reggie Bush is running like he was shot out of a cannon, ranking fifth among tailbacks in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks. Healthy again, Matt Moore is a solid two-quarterback league play. His receivers will be open on Saturday.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

The Titans' playoff hopes took a monster hit with last week's loss to the Colts, but they're still hanging by a thread, needing independent wins and Jets and Bengals losses to keep playing into January. Unfortunately for Tennessee fans, coach Mike Munchak is insistent upon starting Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. Hasselbeck has thrown one touchdown pass over his last five games and is averaging a pathetic 5.27 yards per attempt. We're left only to speculate that he'll be on a short leash, but the in-game installation of rookie Jake Locker isn't a bankable fantasy situation. Even against a bad Jacksonville team, Hasselbeck is playing so poorly that Titans skill players may struggle for production because ball movement threatens to be scarce. Owners of a scuffling, banged-up Chris Johnson (ankle) can consider benching him with Munchak hinting at an increased workload for Jamie Harper. Tennessee's receivers and tight ends have been incredibly inconsistent fantasy commodities. Barring an unexpected change in Munchak's quarterback plans before game day, it's fair to feel uncomfortable starting Titans during fantasy championship week.

Maurice Jones-Drew tweaked his ankle in last Thursday night's loss to Atlanta, but returned to the game and practiced this week. He will start against the Titans. Tennessee's run defense has been sieve-like of late, as Donald Brown's fantasy owners can attest. Over the last four weeks, the Titans have been roughed up for 452 yards on 71 carries (6.37 YPC) by a combination of Brown, Delone Carter, Chris Ivory, Darren Sproles, C.J. Spiller, and LeGarrette Blount. MJD will have fresh legs nine days removed from his last game and is a top-five running back play in Week 16.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 20, Titans 17

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

The Bucs' defense is getting shredded at an embarrassing clip. Five of their last six opponents have scored at least 30 points, and Tampa's top two defenders (Aqib Talib, Gerald McCoy) are on year-ending injured reserve. It's hard to imagine them having any answers for Cam Newton and Steve Smith. The Bucs' No. 30 run defense makes Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both appetizing flex plays. No defense in the league has allowed more rushing scores than Tampa's. Facing a team that seems to have already called it a season, the Panthers' offense shouldn't struggle to rack up yards and points on Saturday. This is a matchup to exploit where possible.

On the flip side, LeGarrette Blount's season has gone downhill in a hurry. He has one touchdown in his last four games and 102 yards on his last 39 rushing attempts (2.62 YPC). In theory, Blount should be a strong RB2 play against a Panthers defense that ranks 25th against the run. But his teammates are killing his fantasy value, and Blount has done nothing to instill confidence with his recent performance. Whereas Carolina is trending up late in the season, the arrow is pointing straight down on Tampa. Owners looking to use Blount in fantasy title week have to hope that the Bucs can keep this game close for at least two quarters. If not, Blount will be staring at another clunker.

Score Prediction: Panthers 30, Bucs 17

Arizona @ Cincinnati

A.J. Green and Patrick Peterson both entered college in 2008 as top-ten recruits. They squared off twice in the SEC, with Green (3-89-1, 5-99-1) getting the better of Peterson's LSU Tigers in both instances. Green's Week 15 shoulder injury won't threaten his status against the Cardinals, and I'd feel confident about his fantasy outlook despite Peterson's recently improved play. There's no doubt that Peterson will be assigned to shadow Green all over the field. Other than Green, the Bengals' passing game is likely to struggle on Saturday. Regressing sharply, Andy Dalton has a 4:6 TD-to-turnover ratio over his last six games and has not cleared 200 yards since November.

Beanie Wells' Week 15 effort was disappointing in that he received only 16 touches and managed 61 yards against a weak Browns defense. Also working against Wells was the fact that Arizona got down 10-0 early, and 17-7 by the third quarter. In my game reviews this week, I still thought Wells looked relatively spry and on the verge of breakout runs on several carries. The early deficit clearly took away from his playing time and workload. Wells isn't playing at 100 percent, but if the Cardinals' O-Line had given him an open-field opportunity, I believe he would have capitalized with a long gain. While the Bengals have defended the run well for the most part, it has not been tough matchups that have stopped Beanie Wells this season. I would want him in my lineup as an RB2.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 20, Bengals 17

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh

The Rams will be severely overmatched Saturday at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh will have its pedal on the gas after last Monday's loss to San Francisco, as the AFC North title hangs in the balance. Held out of practice early this week due to illness, Brandon Lloyd will have his hands full with borderline shutdown CB Ike Taylor. Per Pro Football Focus, Taylor has been targeted 84 times this season. He's allowed 36 completions (42.9%) for 416 yards (4.95 YPA) and two touchdowns. Assuming he's at full tilt physically, Lloyd is good enough to make a few acrobatic receptions and post a respectable stat line against the Steelers. Lloyd offers little fantasy upside, however, especially after Kellen Clemens spent most of last week's game throwing dump-off passes to Steven Jackson and slot receivers. Feel free to bench Lloyd if you are stacked at wideout.

Despite several national reports to the contrary, Rotoworld's expectation all last week was that Ben Roethlisberger would play on Monday Night Football. He did. But the feeling has changed this week. Badly inhibited by his high ankle sprain, Roethlisberger's accuracy was brutal in the 20-3 loss at San Francisco. Pittsburgh will turn to Charlie Batch in a game-manager role on Saturday, leaning on Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman to carry the offense. While the Steelers should rack up enough points and all-purpose yardage to keep Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace well fed, Mendenhall projects as the premier Week 16 fantasy start on Pittsburgh's side. St. Louis allows a league-high 153.4 rushing yards per game, and third-down back Mewelde Moore's (MCL sprain) absence will likely lead to more passing-game usage for Mendenhall. Just don't outthink yourself when it comes to Brown and Wallace. They will be open throughout Saturday's game.

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Rams 7

Minnesota @ Washington

Chris Wesseling thoroughly broke down Washington's Week 16 matchup from a passing-game standpoint in this week's edition of Waiver Wired. The Vikings' secondary has been so wrecked by injuries that opposing receivers have no trouble getting open to all areas of the field. More concerning is the start-ability of Roy Helu, who is battling an array of late-season injuries after four weeks of averaging 28 touches per game. With his workload likely to decrease in a matchup against Minnesota's top-ten run defense, Helu should be thought of as more of a flex option than must-start RB2. Evan Royster, who has 16 carries over the past two games, figures to play a more prominent role than usual. This isn't to recommend benching Helu, but there are reasons for concern. Working in Helu's favor is the fact that the Redskins' offense should move the ball consistently against the Vikings, even if it's mostly through the air. He projects to have scoring chances.

The Vikings' Week 15 offensive performance was anemic against the Saints. Minnesota lost the time-of-possession battle 39 to 21, and fell behind 35-13 on the scoreboard by the third quarter. Some fluky box-score numbers resulted, as Toby Gerhart led the Vikings in receiving and scored twice on short grabs. Fantasy owners of Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin need to overlook last week's game and start their studs as they normally would. Now off the injury report, Peterson's workload should be restored in what projects as a closer, more competitive game. Gerhart won't be a fantasy option. Harvin is also 100% healthy and remains Christian Ponder's first read on the vast majority of passing plays. Peterson is a top-five running back and Harvin a top-15 receiver.

Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Vikings 20

Denver @ Buffalo

Coming off what seemed like a boom-or-bust Week 15 throughout fantasy land, several proven studs are in shake-off-last-week mode heading into Week 16. Willis McGahee is among them. A full participant in practice all this week, McGahee's reduced workload in last Sunday's loss to New England was largely attributable to a three-score deficit in the second half. Lance Ball plays more in passing situations, and the Broncos were in shotgun-spread formations for the majority of the final two quarters. McGahee is primed for a breakout week in a game the Broncos should be able to control on the ground. The Bills rank 29th against the run, permit 4.85 yards a carry, and are allowing an average of more than one rushing touchdown per game. There aren't many teams in the league that set up better on paper for a run-oriented Broncos club to pound into submission.

On Buffalo's side, Stevie Johnson is likely to spend the vast majority of Saturday's game in Broncos shutdown cornerback Champ Bailey's coverage. While Johnson's precise route running makes him a difficult cover for even the game’s best corners, Bailey has held several more gifted wide receivers than Johnson to subpar stat lines. Vincent Jackson (2-25, 3-34), Dwayne Bowe (2-17), Santonio Holmes (4-39), and Brandon Marshall (6-61) have all been held scoreless by Bailey this season. Whereas C.J. Spiller has played well enough lately to be a recommended fantasy start against Denver's suspect run defense, Johnson has a matchup to avoid if possible.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Bills 19

Oakland @ Kansas City

Michael Bush's per-play production has slowed in recent games, likely due at least in some part to massive workloads taking a toll on his 245-pound frame. His usage hasn't decreased, though. Bush has at least 25 touches in two straight games and gets one of the most favorable matchups he's seen all year when the Raiders visit Arrowhead. In six career games against the Chiefs, Bush has poured out 497 yards on 86 carries (5.78 YPC), complemented by nine catches for 73 yards. Kansas City has been as susceptible to the run as ever this season, ranking 24th in the league in rush defense. Fantasy owners of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore should be concerned with the Chiefs' press-man coverage that stifled Green Bay's Week 15 passing attack, but Bush is a safe play with plenty of upside. I like Bush as a top-seven running back in fantasy title week.

I'm not mistaking Kyle Orton for Joe Montana, but during last week's Upset of the Year, Orton was as sharp as a quarterback possibly can be less than a month removed from a waiver claim. He spread the ball around generously in his first start with the Chiefs, but history hints that Orton will gradually become smitten with Dwayne Bowe just as he did Brandon Marshall and Brandon Lloyd in Denver. I'd like this matchup for Bowe even if Tyler Palko was still quarterbacking Kansas City. In nine career meetings with the Raiders, Bowe has racked up 60-plus yards and/or scored a touchdown eight times. He's averaging 75 yards in the last four. Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin remain fantasy non-factors for title week, but Bowe comes in as a borderline WR1.

Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Chiefs 20

4:05PM ET Game

San Diego @ Detroit

There aren't five NFL running backs playing at a higher level than Ryan Mathews entering fantasy championship week. Mathews has amassed 595 yards on his last 116 carries (5.13 YPC) and over 100 total yards in four straight games. Running with exceptional balance and acceleration on the edges, Mathews was the key to San Diego's Week 15 win over Baltimore, also finishing with four red-zone touches and executing twice on carries around the goal line. While Mike Tolbert still excels in the change-of-pace back role, Mathews has clearly taken over as the Chargers' feature runner. Detroit ranks 27th versus the run and allows a league-high 5.15 yards per rushing attempt, so this is a favorable matchup for Mathews. He's an easy top-ten running back play in Week 16.

None of Saturday's games has more projected scoring than Bolts-Lions, with Vegas setting the over/under at 52 points. Fire up your San Diego and Detroit skill players. ... Many owners were burned by Kevin Smith in Week 15, but the Lions' coaching staff stuck with him. Smith dominated the workload, receiving 15 carries while no other Detroit back exceeded one. Maurice Morris was a non-factor, playing one solitary offensive snap. Smith was in for 71. Game flow cost Smith some touches and his ankle wasn't 100 percent, but he's six more days removed from the original injury and again has a favorable matchup in a projected high-scoring affair. Fantasy owners still alive need to stick with Smith against San Diego's No. 21 run defense. He's a true every-down back, will be healthier after a full practice week, and offers multi-touchdown upside versus the Bolts.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Chargers 28

4:15PM ET Games

Philadelphia @ Dallas

In a late game, at less than 100%, and perhaps even facing the possibility of being held out altogether, Felix Jones isn't worth the risk in fantasy leagues this week. Eagles-Cowboys will be worthless from Dallas' perspective if the Giants beat the Jets at 1ET. Should the Jets win, on the other hand, the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a defeat of Philly. "We're all interested in how (Giants-Jets) comes out, and that's natural," Jerry Jones said this week. "I'm certainly looking with interest at that ball game." Felix barely practiced this week due to a tight hamstring and is the most likely Cowboy to either be benched or rested early should they enter the game with nothing on the line. If Jones does not play, Sammy Morris would carry the load against the Eagles' No. 17 run defense. We won't know the Cowboys' starting tailback until around 3ET Saturday, but Morris would emerge as a quality flex play if Jones is scratched. My bet is that we will see heavy doses of Morris regardless of Felix's availability. It seems a bit complicated, but if the Giants win and Felix Jones is active against the Eagles, your best fantasy approach would be to simply look elsewhere.

Asante Samuel's (hamstring) is big news for Tony Romo and the Cowboys' passing game because Samuel has been Philadelphia's top defensive back all season. Eagles coach Andy Reid revealed that Samuel suffered a setback with the hamstring on Tuesday, and the team was forced to rule him out on a league-wide short week. "We're trying to rehab it and see how it goes from there," Reid said. Samuel is strictly a left corner, the position opposite which Miles Austin lines up in base formations and Dez Bryant faces in most three-wide sets. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would be a significant downgrade as Samuel's replacement. I like Austin's chances of leading Dallas in Week 16 receiving, and Bryant was already an every-week fantasy starter. Laurent Robinson remains a high-risk WR3. I expect him to see quite a bit of Nnamdi Asomugha in coverage.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Eagles 24