Week 17 Rankings Update

If you are still reading this column, you are either a masochist or your league plays in Week 17. Probably both.

I’ve never been a fan of playing this week, when rankings often look crazy because of teams resting starters. The good news is that this season contains fewer situations to worry about than usual. Let’s run through each conferences playoff teams quickly to see whether they are playing their starters.


AFC

1. Patriots: Going all out to win and clinch the No. 1 seed. Play everyone.

2. Ravens: Going all out to get a bye. The Steelers are playing at the same time.

3. Texans: They have nothing to play for, but coach Gary Kubiak says they will approach this game like any other. I believe him. This is a young, growing team looking for confidence. They need to get T.J. Yates snaps. Andre Johnson is expected to be limited because of his injury. Perhaps Arian Foster gets 15 carries instead of 20, but I’d still play him.

4. Broncos: They are playing at the same time as Oakland. Both need to win.

5. Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start, but isn’t expected to finish the game because he’s not healthy. The rest of the team is playing to win. I’d roll with your Steelers wideouts.

6. Insert wild card contender here: They are all going all out of course.


NFC

1. Packers: This is the biggest concern. I don’t expect Aaron Rodgers or a few select starters to play that long. Be wary of your Packers. 2. 49ers: Going all out to get a bye.

3. Saints: New Orleans plays at the same time as the 49ers. They have to try to win. Sean Payton was in the exact same spot last year and played Drew Brees into the fourth quarter. It’s possible they could scoreboard watch and remove Brees if the 49ers get a huge lead in St. Louis. I doubt that will happen.

Payton can’t risk sitting Brees and possibly passing on a bye. The matchup against Carolina makes it easy to play your usual Saints. They could score 30 in the first half. Perhaps sit guys like Pierre Thomas that are on the fence.

4. Cowboys-Giants: Obviously, they are going all out to win.

5. Lions: They will do their best to win the No. 5 seed by beating Green Bay, possibly against backups. Love your Lions.

6. Falcons: This one is interesting. If Detroit wins at 1 p.m. ET, the Falcons will be stuck in the No. 6 seed. If the Lions lose early, the Falcons will be motivated to play all out.

Considering the opponent (Tampa), I’d lean towards playing your Falcons. But a Lions win early in the day makes it a little risky.

On to the final rankings. Thanks to everyone for reading all year. And thanks to Chris Wesseling (@chriswesseling) for his massive contributions to the rankings every week.


Week 17 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Yes, the Falcons could sit Matt Ryan. Yes, he could put up a game’s worth of stats in one half of action against Tampa. … Aaron Rodgers’ relatively tough matchup and his shoddy offensive line contribute to his low ranking. It’s just a guess, but I doubt he plays past halftime. … I’d worry about Philip Rivers’ protection and Vincent Jackson’s health.

Carson Palmer played well against San Diego last time out. Deion Sanders would call this a “U-Haul” game for the Chargers. Last week took a lot out of that team. … Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably throw 50 times against arguably the worst secondary in the league. He’s a nice sneaky play. … Tim Tebow isn’t a risky pick. If anything, he’s turned into a safe but low ceiling type of fantasy quarterback. The Chiefs have the defensive talent at cornerback to play man coverage and slow Denver’s offense down.

Big Ben is ranked so low because of reports that he’ll only play 25-30 snaps. … Christian Ponder is back at practice, but you don’t want him in your lineup. … In two QB leagues, Josh McCown isn’t a bad option this week. … Denver’s secondary has holes. Kyle Orton is likely to throw a lot, especially with Jackie Battle hurt. … Last time Alex Smith faced the Rams, San Francisco came out throwing seemingly in an effort to give Smith some confidence. That could happen again.

If you are still reading this column, you are either a masochist or your league plays in Week 17. Probably both.

I’ve never been a fan of playing this week, when rankings often look crazy because of teams resting starters. The good news is that this season contains fewer situations to worry about than usual. Let’s run through each conferences playoff teams quickly to see whether they are playing their starters.


AFC

1. Patriots: Going all out to win and clinch the No. 1 seed. Play everyone.

2. Ravens: Going all out to get a bye. The Steelers are playing at the same time.

3. Texans: They have nothing to play for, but coach Gary Kubiak says they will approach this game like any other. I believe him. This is a young, growing team looking for confidence. They need to get T.J. Yates snaps. Andre Johnson is expected to be limited because of his injury. Perhaps Arian Foster gets 15 carries instead of 20, but I’d still play him.

4. Broncos: They are playing at the same time as Oakland. Both need to win.

5. Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger is expected to start, but isn’t expected to finish the game because he’s not healthy. The rest of the team is playing to win. I’d roll with your Steelers wideouts.

6. Insert wild card contender here: They are all going all out of course.


NFC

1. Packers: This is the biggest concern. I don’t expect Aaron Rodgers or a few select starters to play that long. Be wary of your Packers. 2. 49ers: Going all out to get a bye.

3. Saints: New Orleans plays at the same time as the 49ers. They have to try to win. Sean Payton was in the exact same spot last year and played Drew Brees into the fourth quarter. It’s possible they could scoreboard watch and remove Brees if the 49ers get a huge lead in St. Louis. I doubt that will happen.

Payton can’t risk sitting Brees and possibly passing on a bye. The matchup against Carolina makes it easy to play your usual Saints. They could score 30 in the first half. Perhaps sit guys like Pierre Thomas that are on the fence.

4. Cowboys-Giants: Obviously, they are going all out to win.

5. Lions: They will do their best to win the No. 5 seed by beating Green Bay, possibly against backups. Love your Lions.

6. Falcons: This one is interesting. If Detroit wins at 1 p.m. ET, the Falcons will be stuck in the No. 6 seed. If the Lions lose early, the Falcons will be motivated to play all out.

Considering the opponent (Tampa), I’d lean towards playing your Falcons. But a Lions win early in the day makes it a little risky.

On to the final rankings. Thanks to everyone for reading all year. And thanks to Chris Wesseling (@chriswesseling) for his massive contributions to the rankings every week.


Week 17 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Yes, the Falcons could sit Matt Ryan. Yes, he could put up a game’s worth of stats in one half of action against Tampa. … Aaron Rodgers’ relatively tough matchup and his shoddy offensive line contribute to his low ranking. It’s just a guess, but I doubt he plays past halftime. … I’d worry about Philip Rivers’ protection and Vincent Jackson’s health.

Carson Palmer played well against San Diego last time out. Deion Sanders would call this a “U-Haul” game for the Chargers. Last week took a lot out of that team. … Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably throw 50 times against arguably the worst secondary in the league. He’s a nice sneaky play. … Tim Tebow isn’t a risky pick. If anything, he’s turned into a safe but low ceiling type of fantasy quarterback. The Chiefs have the defensive talent at cornerback to play man coverage and slow Denver’s offense down.

Big Ben is ranked so low because of reports that he’ll only play 25-30 snaps. … Christian Ponder is back at practice, but you don’t want him in your lineup. … In two QB leagues, Josh McCown isn’t a bad option this week. … Denver’s secondary has holes. Kyle Orton is likely to throw a lot, especially with Jackie Battle hurt. … Last time Alex Smith faced the Rams, San Francisco came out throwing seemingly in an effort to give Smith some confidence. That could happen again.

Week 17 Running Backs

RB Notes: Kalhil Bell really showed something against the Packers. He could have a nice future as a primary backup at the very worst. He ran with great patience and surprising burst through the hole. I’d be very confident using him this week. … LeSean McCoy isn’t 100%. This ranking is based on him starting. It could change, so check back over the weekend for an update. … The Chargers struggle against physical opponents. Oakland’s offensive line should manhandle San Diego. Michael Bush is a must start.

Will Arian Foster get 20 carries against the Titans? Probably not. But I’d still have a very tough time sitting him when the Texans plan to play their starters. I’d still expect Foster and Ben Tate to get 15 carries apiece. … Felix Jones ran well in limited work last week. Expect a big workload this time around. The Cowboys say they were just resting him. I’d expect a run-heavy gameplan against the Giants. … Reggie Bush is just about matchup proof these days. And the Jets rush defense isn’t quite as tough a matchup as it used to be.

Chris Johnson would worry me, but he should still be in most lineups. … Evan Royster didn’t blow me away when I re-watched Vikings-Redskins, but he’s capable enough if he gets the ball 20 times. I expect that to happen again this week. … Peyton Hillis is running very well. Well enough to use him as a RB2 if you need help. … It’s tough to trust Stevan Ridley. It’s easy to imagine the Patriots completely going away from him some weeks. … Toby Gerhart was a little better than expected as a starter last time around. You could do worse this week.

Week 17 Wide Receivers

WR Notes: The Lions have a lot to gain by winning in Green Bay. Don’t worry about starting Calvin Johnson. … Roddy White would be No. 1 if not for the slight chance the Falcons rest their players. I’d still play him in a perfect matchup. … Hakeem Nicks isn’t 100%, but he’s expected to start. … A.J. Green has proven enough times that he can excel in tough matchups to play him this week.

Brandon Marshall had a fine game against Darrelle Revis last time out. The Dolphins aren’t shy about going after Revis. … Malcom Floyd is a great play this week if Vincent Jackson is out, as expected. We’ll add V-Jax to the list if he returns to practice. … Crack NBCSports.com researcher Clifton Pugh points out Eric Decker has only 10 catches in his last seven games. Demaryius Thomas has 22 catches in his last four games. (That kind of exclusive info is why Pugh makes the big bucks.) The Chiefs present a tough matchup for Thomas, but he’s still a decent WR2/3.

Don’t assume the Packers offense will just collapse with Matt Flynn. They have to play someone at wide receiver and James Jones figures to get plenty of snaps. … Jacoby Ford is healthy again, but I can’t imagine using him this week. Denarius Moore is our highest ranked Raiders wideout. … Nate Burleson is a better option than usual, especially if Charles Woodson is out early for the Packers. … DeSean Jackson has earned enough trust back to safely play him. The Redskins have quietly become an easy matchup.

Week 17 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Jared Cook nearly won my office league final for me on his own. It almost made me happy Fred Davis got caught smoking weed 37 times in the offseason. Cook is being featured in a Titans offense desperate for playmakers. He’s a solid start again, even in a tough matchup. … I would like to apologize again to Tony Gonzalez for doubting him at the beginning of the season. I’ll never doubt you again. At least until next year. … Vernon Davis will wrap up one of the more quietly disappointing fantasy seasons of the year in St. Louis. It’s not exactly Davis’ fault, but that doesn’t put any points on the board for his teams most weeks. … Jermichael Finley’s problems with drops have become epic. Look for Aaron Rodgers to get something positive going early for Finley before the playoffs. It’s all in Finley’s head.


Week 17 Team Defense

Week 17 Kickers