Final Target Watch
Thursday, January 05, 2012
To wrap up the 2011 NFL season I thought I’d take a look at some of the final usage numbers for the 2011 season. And also look at the top totals from the 2010. Join me?
2011/2010 Target Leaders
Eleven of the top 21 target mongers repeated their top 21 finish this season so that means there were 10 newcomers to the list and 10 that fell off the list. The newcomers are what we are most interested in. Out with the old, in with the new I always say. Hey, did I just make that up? Someone call the patent office.
Jimmy Graham led all the new guys with 147 targets, catching 99 of those for the third most receptions for a tight end in NFL history and woo hoo! He also broke Kellen Winslow's record for most yards for a tight end in a season with 1,310. Oh wait, he done got Gronk’d. Yes, Rob Gronkowski beat Graham to the punch and finished the season 17 yards richer.
The two most successful surprises on the list are Victor Cruz and Antonio Brown. Both were on sleeper lists to start the season but not many would have bet on them finishing 3rd and 13th in wide receiver receiving yards.
Target Effeciency
One name you won’t see on the above list is Jordy Nelson and that is due to the efficiency of Aaron Rodgers. That takes us into the next stat, yards per target. Here are the top receivers in yds/tgt with 50 or more targets.
1. Jordy Nelson -- 13.3
2. Malcom Floyd --12.2
3. James Jones -- 11.8
4. Victor Cruz -- 11.6
5. Brandon LaFell -- 10.9
6. Steve Smith -- 10.8
7. Laurent Robinson -- 10.7
8. Rob Gronkowski -- 10.7
9. Mike Wallace -- 10.6
10. Johnny Knox -- 10.5
11. Calvin Johnson -- 10.5
12. Marques Colston -- 10.5
13. Julio Jones -- 10.2
14. Robert Meachem -- 10.2
15. Devery Henderson -- 10.1
16. Jake Ballard -- 9.9
17. Vincent Jackson -- 9.7
18. Andre Johnson -- 9.6
19. Greg Jennings -- 9.6
20. DeSean Jackson -- 9.4
21. Jared Cook -- 9.4
As you can see Nelson is the clear leader and his teammate James Jones is not far behind with Greg Jennings slacking down at 19th. These guys are good no doubt, but Aaron Rodgers elevates their game. You’ll also see another trio of receivers on this list from another team, the New Orleans Saints. Mr. Drew Brees does a pretty good job of making the most out of his attempts. If you look at these top receivers in this category you’ll notice Rodgers, Rivers, Manning and Newton are the men behind the receivers. That Cam Newton was efficient enough with his attempts toward LaFell and Smith to give them 10 yards a target says a lot for the rookie. Not one of these other receivers’ quarterbacks was a rookie or even considered a sub-par quarterback.
And here I’ll return to the recording duo of Rodgers and Nelson. Of Nelson's 68 receptions 22 percent of them went for touchdowns. That led the league of course unless you count Ricardo Lockette’s 100 percent, but you really shouldn’t.
On the other end of this efficiency spectrum we can see some sad numbers, especially if these guys were on your fake team.
1. Mike Thomas – 4.6
2. Andre Caldwell – 4.7
3. Jonathan Baldwin – 5.0
4. Dane Sanzenbacher – 5.1
5. Mohamed Massaquoi – 5.2
6. Austin Collie – 5.4
7. Marcedes Lewis – 5.4
8. Dallas Clark – 5.4
9. Devin Aromashodu – 5.6
10. Ben Watson – 5.8
11. Jarett Dillard – 5.8
12. Visanthe Shiancoe – 5.8
13. Greg Little – 5.9
14. Ed Dickson – 5.9
15. Andre Roberts – 6.0
16. Hines Ward – 6.0
17. Greg Olsen – 6.1
18. Brandon Gibson -- 6.1
19. Santana Moss – 6.1
20. Mike Williams (TB) – 6.2
21. Lance Kendricks – 6.2
I’ll raise you 3 Blaine Gabbert’s and 3 Colt McCoy’s in this QB inefficiency card game from hell. Now I’m not saying these wide receivers are all the greatest things since sliced bread, but as a whole if you look at the quarterbacks that get their receivers to 10 yards per target compared to the guys that get their receivers to 5 yards per target, well, there’s a difference. Think of The Godfather (Aaron Rodgers) and White Chicks (Blaine Gabbert) . You don’t really need an Academy Award (MVP) to tell you which one is better.
To wrap up the 2011 NFL season I thought I’d take a look at some of the final usage numbers for the 2011 season. And also look at the top totals from the 2010. Join me?
2011/2010 Target Leaders
Eleven of the top 21 target mongers repeated their top 21 finish this season so that means there were 10 newcomers to the list and 10 that fell off the list. The newcomers are what we are most interested in. Out with the old, in with the new I always say. Hey, did I just make that up? Someone call the patent office.
Jimmy Graham led all the new guys with 147 targets, catching 99 of those for the third most receptions for a tight end in NFL history and woo hoo! He also broke Kellen Winslow's record for most yards for a tight end in a season with 1,310. Oh wait, he done got Gronk’d. Yes, Rob Gronkowski beat Graham to the punch and finished the season 17 yards richer.
The two most successful surprises on the list are Victor Cruz and Antonio Brown. Both were on sleeper lists to start the season but not many would have bet on them finishing 3rd and 13th in wide receiver receiving yards.
Target Effeciency
One name you won’t see on the above list is Jordy Nelson and that is due to the efficiency of Aaron Rodgers. That takes us into the next stat, yards per target. Here are the top receivers in yds/tgt with 50 or more targets.
1. Jordy Nelson -- 13.3
2. Malcom Floyd --12.2
3. James Jones -- 11.8
4. Victor Cruz -- 11.6
5. Brandon LaFell -- 10.9
6. Steve Smith -- 10.8
7. Laurent Robinson -- 10.7
8. Rob Gronkowski -- 10.7
9. Mike Wallace -- 10.6
10. Johnny Knox -- 10.5
11. Calvin Johnson -- 10.5
12. Marques Colston -- 10.5
13. Julio Jones -- 10.2
14. Robert Meachem -- 10.2
15. Devery Henderson -- 10.1
16. Jake Ballard -- 9.9
17. Vincent Jackson -- 9.7
18. Andre Johnson -- 9.6
19. Greg Jennings -- 9.6
20. DeSean Jackson -- 9.4
21. Jared Cook -- 9.4
As you can see Nelson is the clear leader and his teammate James Jones is not far behind with Greg Jennings slacking down at 19th. These guys are good no doubt, but Aaron Rodgers elevates their game. You’ll also see another trio of receivers on this list from another team, the New Orleans Saints. Mr. Drew Brees does a pretty good job of making the most out of his attempts. If you look at these top receivers in this category you’ll notice Rodgers, Rivers, Manning and Newton are the men behind the receivers. That Cam Newton was efficient enough with his attempts toward LaFell and Smith to give them 10 yards a target says a lot for the rookie. Not one of these other receivers’ quarterbacks was a rookie or even considered a sub-par quarterback.
And here I’ll return to the recording duo of Rodgers and Nelson. Of Nelson's 68 receptions 22 percent of them went for touchdowns. That led the league of course unless you count Ricardo Lockette’s 100 percent, but you really shouldn’t.
On the other end of this efficiency spectrum we can see some sad numbers, especially if these guys were on your fake team.
1. Mike Thomas – 4.6
2. Andre Caldwell – 4.7
3. Jonathan Baldwin – 5.0
4. Dane Sanzenbacher – 5.1
5. Mohamed Massaquoi – 5.2
6. Austin Collie – 5.4
7. Marcedes Lewis – 5.4
8. Dallas Clark – 5.4
9. Devin Aromashodu – 5.6
10. Ben Watson – 5.8
11. Jarett Dillard – 5.8
12. Visanthe Shiancoe – 5.8
13. Greg Little – 5.9
14. Ed Dickson – 5.9
15. Andre Roberts – 6.0
16. Hines Ward – 6.0
17. Greg Olsen – 6.1
18. Brandon Gibson -- 6.1
19. Santana Moss – 6.1
20. Mike Williams (TB) – 6.2
21. Lance Kendricks – 6.2
I’ll raise you 3 Blaine Gabbert’s and 3 Colt McCoy’s in this QB inefficiency card game from hell. Now I’m not saying these wide receivers are all the greatest things since sliced bread, but as a whole if you look at the quarterbacks that get their receivers to 10 yards per target compared to the guys that get their receivers to 5 yards per target, well, there’s a difference. Think of The Godfather (Aaron Rodgers) and White Chicks (Blaine Gabbert) . You don’t really need an Academy Award (MVP) to tell you which one is better.
Running Back Targets
I took a stroll down receiving running back memory lane and found a couple facts that interested me. One is that there are only three running backs with over 1,000 yards receiving since the merger and secondly that two of those came in the same season, 1985. That year there were also only 11 players overall that had over 1,000 yards receiving! Anyway, Roger Craig and Lionel “Little Train” James were the two running backs that topped 1k that year. And not until The Greatest Show on Turf and Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk came on the scene was the 1k barrier breeched again. This season we saw two running backs perform well in the passing game with both Darren Sproles and Ray Rice topping 700 yards. Let’s take a look at how they stacked up in the targets and yards per target department.
1. Darren Sproles – 107/6.6
2. Ray Rice – 104/6.8
3. Mike Tolbert – 79/5.5
4. Chris Johnson -- 79/5.3
5. Matt Forte – 75/6.5
6. Arian Foster – 72/8.6
7. LeSean McCoy – 69/4.6
8. Dexter McCluster – 65/5.1
9. Maurice Jones-Drew – 64/5.8
10. LaDainian Tomlinson – 60/7.5
11. Jonathan Stewart – 60/6.9
12. Roy Helu – 60/6.3
13. Ryan Mathews – 59/7.7
14. Pierre Thomas – 59/7.2
15. Steven Jackson – 58/5.7
16. C.J. Spiller – 54/5
17. Kregg Lumpkin – 53/5.5
18. Reggie Bush – 52/5.7
19. Fred Jackson – 49/9.0
20. Michael Bush – 47/8.9
21. Ahmad Bradshaw – 44/6.1
22. Felix Jones – 44/5
Fred Jackson, Arian Foster and Michael Bush made the most out of their targets but Darren Sproles was the clear aerial king with his 7 receiving touchdowns. Ryan Mathews and Chris Johnson combined for a healthy 138 targets, 107 receptions and zero receiving touchdowns. Dexter McCluster finished higher than I expected and with a lower yards per target than I expected. All in all it is hard to assign much meaning to running back receiving yards since the sample sizes are usually pretty low, but Sproles and Rice were the cream of the receiving-back crop this year and there’s no reason, other than the many obstacles that football throws at them, that they can’t repeat similar numbers next season.
Running Back Workload
There is always much debate on how an excessive workload will affect running backs in subsequent years. Personally I don’t believe there is any formula you can insert here to help you predict the future but getting hit over and over probably isn’t the best thing for the human body. Here are the running backs and how heavily they were relied upon by their team. The numbers are number of touches/percentage of the team’s plays the running back was targeted.
1. Maurice Jones-Drew -- 386/0.43
2. Ray Rice -- 367/0.39
3. Arian Foster -- 331/0.35
4. LeSean McCoy -- 321/0.34
5. Chris Johnson -- 319/0.36
6. Michael Turner -- 318/0.31
7. Marshawn Lynch -- 313/0.34
8. Steven Jackson -- 302/0.33
9. Frank Gore -- 299/0.33
10. Michael Bush -- 293/0.31
11. Cedric Benson -- 288/0.30
12. Shonn Greene -- 283/0.30
13. Ryan Mathews -- 272/0.28
14. Willis McGahee -- 261/0.33
15. Reggie Bush -- 259/0.28
16. Matt Forte -- 255/0.30
17. Beanie Wells -- 255/0.28
18. Rashard Mendenhall – 246/0.26
19. Adrian Peterson -- 227/0.24
20. Fred Jackson -- 209/0.22
As you can see the top guys miraculously are the guys that didn’t suffer injuries. Maurice Jones-Drew was easily the most used running back and also one of the biggest preseason risks due to his knee problems. With a rookie quarterback who played like a rookie and not much in the way of help from backup running backs, tight ends or receivers MJD had to carry the load game in and game out.
In 2010, the top 10 work horses were:
1. Arian Foster 393/.41
2. Steven Jackson 376/.38
3. Ray Rice 370/.4
4. Chris Johnson 360/.42
5. Cedric Benson 349/.35
6. Rashard Mendenhall 347/.38
7. Michael Turner 346/.33
8. Maurice Jones-Drew 333/.33
9. Peyton Hillis 331/.4
10. Ahmad Bradshaw 323/.33
You can see there is some major overlap here with 7 running backs repeating their top 10 workload numbers. Yes, it’s okay to look at workload and wear and tear on a running back when assessing their season outlook but don’t make it your sole criteria in downgrading a player.
Tight Ends
1. Jimmy Graham -- 148
2. Brandon Pettigrew -- 125
3. Rob Gronkowski -- 124
4. Kellen Winslow -- 119
5. Jason Witten -- 117
6. Tony Gonzalez -- 116
7. Dustin Keller -- 115
8. Aaron Hernandez -- 113
9. Brent Celek -- 98
10. Vernon Davis -- 95
11. Jermaine Gresham -- 92
12. Jermichael Finley -- 92
13. Greg Olsen -- 89
14. Ed Dickson -- 89
15. Antonio Gates -- 88
16. Fred Davis -- 87
17. Marcedes Lewis -- 85
18. Owen Daniels -- 84
19. Jared Cook -- 81
20. Heath Miller -- 73
21. Ben Watson -- 71
This was the year of the tight end with both Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski going all old-school Chargers tight ends on us but on the whole there wasn’t a huge jump in targets to tight ends. Graham and Gronk are both special players and showed why this season. On the whole though it is apparent the trend toward showcasing elite tight ends in the offensive game plan is becoming a more than viable option.
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