Matchups: The Divisional Round

New Orleans @ San Francisco
Saturday 4:30ET

Saints Must: Pick on San Francisco's outside corners. The 49ers don't match up well with New Orleans because San Francisco's defensive strength is versus the run, and its weakness is defending the pass. The Saints love to air it out, finishing the season second in the NFL in pass attempts and leading all teams in playoff passing yards. New Orleans' spread-like offense will force 49ers coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense into constant nickel sets, in which top cornerback Carlos Rogers covers the slot, with Tarell Brown and rookie Chris Culliver outside. Brown and Culliver are the defense's weak links. They'll have their hands full against deep threat Robert Meachem and versatile Marques Colston, while TE Jimmy Graham matches up with safeties.

49ers Must: Run early and often, and stick to it. This is where Detroit went wrong last week. Instead of attacking New Orleans' soft front seven with a ground-based approach, the Lions attempted to go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees in an aerial shootout. Eight of the Lions' initial ten offensive plays were called passes, and they finished with an incredibly lopsided 43:10 pass-to-run ratio. First-year coach Jim Harbaugh's offense has been run-based all year, so the opposite comes natural to the 49ers. San Francisco ended the regular season with the NFC's most rushing attempts, and no 16-game starter threw fewer passes than Alex Smith. If Matthew Stafford can't beat the Saints with his arm, Smith certainly won't. Harbaugh made it a point in 2011 to utilize Smith as a game manager. Facing a Saints defense that permits nearly five yards per rushing play, Niners tailbacks Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will give New Orleans far more problems.

X-Factor: Safety Roman Harper. Dropping Harper as an eighth defender into the box will be New Orleans' best way to minimize Gore's impact Saturday. A coverage liability but one of the NFL's premier run-support safeties, Harper is a physical tackler and playmaker near the line of scrimmage. He's forced eight fumbles over the past two seasons and leads the Saints in tackles during that span. When Harper stays in the back end, he'll be assigned to tight end Vernon Davis.

Why the Saints Will Win: It isn't a good matchup for the 49ers. San Francisco won't stop New Orleans' passing onslaught, and understandably Harbaugh hasn't shown enough confidence in his quarterback to reasonably expect Smith to win a high-scoring, throw-happy shootout. Just once all year has Smith exceeded 275 passing yards, and it hasn't happened at all in the season's past 14 weeks. Brees has gone over 275 yards in 14-of-17 tries. The Niners can stay competitive if they play their season-best game in pass defense, but Smith will be their ultimate downfall.

Prediction: Saints 28, 49ers 17

Denver @ New England
Saturday 8:00ET

Broncos Must: Let Champ Bailey shadow Aaron Hernandez. Denver's defensive staff wasted Bailey in its Week 15 matchup with New England. Employing a stubborn, old-school strategy, the Broncos kept Bailey at left corner for four quarters while Hernandez tormented rookie safety Quinton Carter and aging RCB Andre' Goodman en route to a season-high nine catches and 129 yards, including a second-quarter touchdown. The Broncos took Hernandez lightly, using loaded coverage to slow Rob Gronkowski (four receptions, 53 yards) and Wes Welker (41 yards, four catches) while Hernandez ran free. Defending New England's offense can be a pick-your-poison scenario, but allowing Bailey to be a roaming difference-maker would be a good first step.

Patriots Must: Take away Demaryius Thomas. Broncos regular-season receiving leader Eric Decker (knee) will not play. Recognizing Thomas as Denver's lone remaining passing-game threat, New England needs to treat him as if Thomas were Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. Last week, the Steelers made the mistake of selling out strictly to stop the run while cornerback Ike Taylor applied frequent off coverage against Thomas, giving up a sizable cushion. Thomas exploded for 204 yards and the game-winning score. With a 98-yard average over the last month and a half, Thomas has "earned" opponents' double teams. Patriots defensive backs need to get physical with Thomas at the line, and there should be a safety at the top of his route at all times.

X-Factor: Tailback Stevan Ridley. The Pats are a pass-heavy team by nature, but they'd be remiss to overlook Denver's recent run-defense woes. Over their last four games, the Broncos have allowed 581 yards and four touchdowns on 119 carries (4.88 average), including Steelers backup Isaac Redman's 121-yard Wild Card round game. Versatile, powerful, and decisive, Ridley emerged as New England's top rusher down the stretch, playing more snaps and out-producing the likes of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Among NFL backs with at least 85 regular-season rush attempts, Ridley 2.6 yards-after-contact average ranked fourth in the league.

Why the Patriots Will Win: If they take away Thomas -- and Bill Belichick has a knack for eliminating the opposition's top weapon -- the Broncos will struggle for big plays, yardage, and points. It's where Decker's loss hurts; Eddie Royal and Matt Willis represent significant drop-offs in talent. Denver's pass rush contain Tom Brady for short stretches, but New England's tight end and slot receiver-heavy, over-the-middle offense is an ideal counteraction for big-time edge rushers. I don't think Denver can score often enough to atone for how many points it will allow.

Prediction: Patriots 32, Broncos 20

New Orleans @ San Francisco
Saturday 4:30ET

Saints Must: Pick on San Francisco's outside corners. The 49ers don't match up well with New Orleans because San Francisco's defensive strength is versus the run, and its weakness is defending the pass. The Saints love to air it out, finishing the season second in the NFL in pass attempts and leading all teams in playoff passing yards. New Orleans' spread-like offense will force 49ers coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense into constant nickel sets, in which top cornerback Carlos Rogers covers the slot, with Tarell Brown and rookie Chris Culliver outside. Brown and Culliver are the defense's weak links. They'll have their hands full against deep threat Robert Meachem and versatile Marques Colston, while TE Jimmy Graham matches up with safeties.

49ers Must: Run early and often, and stick to it. This is where Detroit went wrong last week. Instead of attacking New Orleans' soft front seven with a ground-based approach, the Lions attempted to go toe-to-toe with Drew Brees in an aerial shootout. Eight of the Lions' initial ten offensive plays were called passes, and they finished with an incredibly lopsided 43:10 pass-to-run ratio. First-year coach Jim Harbaugh's offense has been run-based all year, so the opposite comes natural to the 49ers. San Francisco ended the regular season with the NFC's most rushing attempts, and no 16-game starter threw fewer passes than Alex Smith. If Matthew Stafford can't beat the Saints with his arm, Smith certainly won't. Harbaugh made it a point in 2011 to utilize Smith as a game manager. Facing a Saints defense that permits nearly five yards per rushing play, Niners tailbacks Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will give New Orleans far more problems.

X-Factor: Safety Roman Harper. Dropping Harper as an eighth defender into the box will be New Orleans' best way to minimize Gore's impact Saturday. A coverage liability but one of the NFL's premier run-support safeties, Harper is a physical tackler and playmaker near the line of scrimmage. He's forced eight fumbles over the past two seasons and leads the Saints in tackles during that span. When Harper stays in the back end, he'll be assigned to tight end Vernon Davis.

Why the Saints Will Win: It isn't a good matchup for the 49ers. San Francisco won't stop New Orleans' passing onslaught, and understandably Harbaugh hasn't shown enough confidence in his quarterback to reasonably expect Smith to win a high-scoring, throw-happy shootout. Just once all year has Smith exceeded 275 passing yards, and it hasn't happened at all in the season's past 14 weeks. Brees has gone over 275 yards in 14-of-17 tries. The Niners can stay competitive if they play their season-best game in pass defense, but Smith will be their ultimate downfall.

Prediction: Saints 28, 49ers 17

Denver @ New England
Saturday 8:00ET

Broncos Must: Let Champ Bailey shadow Aaron Hernandez. Denver's defensive staff wasted Bailey in its Week 15 matchup with New England. Employing a stubborn, old-school strategy, the Broncos kept Bailey at left corner for four quarters while Hernandez tormented rookie safety Quinton Carter and aging RCB Andre' Goodman en route to a season-high nine catches and 129 yards, including a second-quarter touchdown. The Broncos took Hernandez lightly, using loaded coverage to slow Rob Gronkowski (four receptions, 53 yards) and Wes Welker (41 yards, four catches) while Hernandez ran free. Defending New England's offense can be a pick-your-poison scenario, but allowing Bailey to be a roaming difference-maker would be a good first step.

Patriots Must: Take away Demaryius Thomas. Broncos regular-season receiving leader Eric Decker (knee) will not play. Recognizing Thomas as Denver's lone remaining passing-game threat, New England needs to treat him as if Thomas were Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. Last week, the Steelers made the mistake of selling out strictly to stop the run while cornerback Ike Taylor applied frequent off coverage against Thomas, giving up a sizable cushion. Thomas exploded for 204 yards and the game-winning score. With a 98-yard average over the last month and a half, Thomas has "earned" opponents' double teams. Patriots defensive backs need to get physical with Thomas at the line, and there should be a safety at the top of his route at all times.

X-Factor: Tailback Stevan Ridley. The Pats are a pass-heavy team by nature, but they'd be remiss to overlook Denver's recent run-defense woes. Over their last four games, the Broncos have allowed 581 yards and four touchdowns on 119 carries (4.88 average), including Steelers backup Isaac Redman's 121-yard Wild Card round game. Versatile, powerful, and decisive, Ridley emerged as New England's top rusher down the stretch, playing more snaps and out-producing the likes of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Among NFL backs with at least 85 regular-season rush attempts, Ridley 2.6 yards-after-contact average ranked fourth in the league.

Why the Patriots Will Win: If they take away Thomas -- and Bill Belichick has a knack for eliminating the opposition's top weapon -- the Broncos will struggle for big plays, yardage, and points. It's where Decker's loss hurts; Eddie Royal and Matt Willis represent significant drop-offs in talent. Denver's pass rush contain Tom Brady for short stretches, but New England's tight end and slot receiver-heavy, over-the-middle offense is an ideal counteraction for big-time edge rushers. I don't think Denver can score often enough to atone for how many points it will allow.

Prediction: Patriots 32, Broncos 20

Houston @ Baltimore
Sunday 1:00ET

Texans Must: Throw successfully on first down. Houston finished the regular season tied for the league lead in rushing attempts, and posted a 35:20 run-to-pass ratio in the Wild Card round. The Ravens will expect the run. The Texans can gain a step on Baltimore by using play-action fakes to set up early-down passing plays, be it of the deep variety to Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones, or higher-percentage crossers to possession receiver Kevin Walter. It will be important for T.J. Yates to establish rhythm and confidence early on. This projects as perhaps the closest of this weekend's Divisional round affairs, and the Texans won't topple teams tougher than the Bengals without an extended period of strong performance from their rookie quarterback.

Ravens Must: Delete Houston's running game. This is where Baltimore's first-round bye will come in particularly handy. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis got a week off to rest his ailing toe, an injury that has affected both his performance and availability since Week 10. Run-stopping LE Cory Redding (ankle), ILB Dannell Ellerbe (head), and DT Arthur Jones (illness) are all recovered from late-year injuries. The Ravens fielded the AFC's toughest regular-season run defense and are now at full strength. It's an intimidating development for Wild Card round star Arian Foster, who was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries and held out of the end zone in Houston's Week 6 regular-season meeting with these same Ravens. Despite Foster's mammoth statistical line against the Bengals, he also appeared to be a step slower than usual in terms of acceleration.

X-Factor: Anquan Boldin. Boldin played the first 14 games with a torn meniscus, missing the final two after December 22 surgery. This week, Boldin declared himself the healthiest he's been all year. During the aforementioned Week 6 meeting with Houston, Boldin abused Texans top corner Johnathan Joseph for 132 yards on a season-high eight catches as Joseph shadowed him throughout the game. Boldin's return makes the Ravens' passing attack considerably more dangerous because his physicality creates mismatches in the slot while deep threats Torrey Smith and Lee Evans man the outside. The Texans will likely focus their defensive efforts on stopping Ray Rice and Baltimore's ground game, so the wideouts should all see plenty of single coverage.

Why the Ravens Will Win: Beating the Bengals in Week 17 was crucial for Baltimore because it bought them much-needed time. Team leader Lewis will have his legs back after the playoff bye, and a healthy Boldin appears to have Joseph's number. The Texans' offensive staff will likely do what it can to relieve any and all pressure from Yates, but I'm betting against a rookie quarterback visiting the Ravens far more often than not. If the Texans do pull the upset -- they're 7.5-point dogs -- it will be because Yates had easily the best game of his young pro career.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 21

NY Giants @ Green Bay
Sunday 4:30ET

Giants Must: Attack Chad Clifton. After tearing his left hamstring in October, the Packers' 35-year-old left tackle recovered slower than expected, not returning until Week 17. Clifton has played just 25 snaps since Week 5, and Sunday will mark the first time the Packers have started Clifton and RT Bryan Bulaga together since Week 2. Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jason Pierre-Paul most often lines up against left tackles and is key to the Giants' chances of containing Aaron Rodgers. Sub-package DEs Osi Umenyiora and Dave Tollefson also play Pierre-Paul's spot in certain sets, so New York can send a wave of defenders in Clifton's direction.

Packers Must: Not waste opportunities. In their Week 13 regular-season meeting with New York, Packers would-be receivers combined to drop six passes, "led" by Jermichael Finley's three. With Umenyiora and left defensive end Justin Tuck healthier, the Giants' pass rush has been souped up since. Green Bay's margin for error is likely to be slimmer against a red-hot New York team that has decisively beaten three straight tough opponents. Amid the Michael Philbin tragedy, this may come down to a matter of game preparation for Packers coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy rested many starters in Week 17, followed by a playoff bye. When they take the field Sunday afternoon, Green Bay first-teamers will be playing together for the first time in 21 days.

X-Factor: B.J. Raji. After emerging as one of the league's most dominant nose tackles last season, Raji took a step back this year as his playing time increased. Used as an every-down player for most of the season's first half, the 337-pounder has worn down while opponents have averaged 4.67 yards per rushing attempt against Green Bay, the seventh highest average in the NFL. Surprisingly, Raji was among the Packers starters who did see a full complement of Week 17 snaps as many first-teamers rested. An impact performance will be needed from Raji if Green Bay plans to halt a Giants ground game that rushed for 172 yards in the Wild Card round.

Why the Packers Will Win: Because I picked them before the season to repeat. Just kidding. Sorta. The Giants are the NFL's hottest team north of Louisiana and pose a stiff test for the defending champs. To me, it's a talent issue. Green Bay is the most skilled and deepest team in football, and I'm going to bet on them every single chance I get -- especially at home. I think Finley will have a monster game, making up for his embarrassing Week 13 effort. Defensively, Raji will benefit from the week off. I do like the Giants to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 24