Rotoworld college scouting correspondent Josh Norris and myself worked last week to formulate a mock draft we believed would be most like an NFL team's at this point in the draft process. Some clubs do write up their own mocks before the draft to give everyone in the room an idea of how selections might go.
With Josh doing a lot of fact finding in addition to his own evaluating on the all-star game tour over the past several weeks, we believe there are a number of prospects being overvalued and undervalued in pre-Combine, pre-free agency media mocks. We'll pinpoint those players in a future column, but you'll get a pretty good idea after reading this top-32 projection.
1. Colts -- Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck
New GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano aim to be competitive quickly in Indianapolis, even after remaking the roster on both sides of the football. At the most valuable position in pro sports, Luck is considered more NFL-ready than Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. The Colts will release Peyton Manning before his roster bonus due date, and Luck will be a Week 1 starter in new coordinator Bruce Arians' aggressive, pass-oriented offense.
2. Rams -- USC left tackle Matt Kalil
The Rams knew early that former No. 2 overall pick Jason Smith would bust. Rodger Saffold has not worked out on the blind side and will likely move to right tackle under new coach Jeff Fisher. While Kalil must add muscle to realize his run-blocking potential, he will be a huge plus in pass protection from day one. Early-career hits are becoming a major concern for young quarterback Sam Bradford. He's taken 70 sacks and been forced to fumble 17 times in his first 26 games.
3. Vikings -- Iowa left tackle Riley Reiff
Reiff has generated relatively scant pre-draft recognition as an underclassman ineligible for all-star games, but he's arguably the top all-around tackle available. NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock has Reiff ranked ahead even of Kalil. A more polished run blocker than Kalil and superior prospect to Stanford's Jonathan Martin and Ohio State's Mike Adams, Reiff's perceived stock will skyrocket around Combine time. Left tackle is the most glaring need on Minnesota's roster.
4. Browns -- Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III
Griffin is the most dynamic offensive talent in the 2012 draft, and Browns coach Pat Shurmur is well aware his fate would be sealed by another year of backup-caliber quarterback Colt McCoy under center. Griffin's ability to stand strong when the pocket collapses is his lone question mark. He has an outstanding combination of arm strength, accuracy, athleticism, and intelligence.
5. Buccaneers -- Alabama running back Trent Richardson
New Bucs coach Greg Schiano is an ardent believer in the run game, frequently using two-back committees (e.g. Ray Rice and Brian Leonard) to pound opponents into submission. In 11 years at Rutgers, Schiano's offenses finished with more rushing attempts than passes nine times. Running backs are rarely worth top-five draft picks, but Richardson is, and the Bucs need far more than LeGarrette Blount can give them in order to make good on Schiano's philosophy.
6. Redskins -- Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill
While public perception has Tannehill's stock freefalling after pre-draft foot surgery, the former Texas A&M wideout remains entrenched as this year's No. 3 quarterback. Tannehill is a big-armed athlete unafraid of an oncoming rush, and possesses tools ideally suited for the Shanahan offense. While the Redskins may hope to "ease in" Tannehill after only 19 college starts, he is more NFL-ready than the stats suggest after learning Mike Sherman's West Coast system.
7. Jaguars -- North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples
Though some observers deemed Coples' senior year disappointing from a production standpoint, the 6-foot-6, 281-pound athletic freak still paced the Tar Heels in sacks (7.5), tackles for loss (15), quarterback pressures, and forced fumbles (3). Coples is perhaps the most Julius Peppers-like prospect to be draft-eligible since Peppers himself was selected second overall in 2002. Following a dominant Senior Bowl performance, Coples has solidified himself as a top-eight 2012 draft pick.
8. Panthers -- LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne
A shutdown cover man and on-ball playmaker (11 INTs in two seasons as a starter), Claiborne is this year's top secondary prospect. More scheme diverse than LSU predecessor Patrick Peterson, Claiborne possesses fluid hips to eliminate receivers in off coverage as well as man. Panthers brass may prefer Coples fall to them at No. 8, but elite pass rushers are routinely drafted ahead of defensive backs. Paired with Chris Gamble, Claiborne would give Carolina the NFC South's most talented corner duo. And a better chance to halt pass-first attacks of New Orleans and Atlanta.
9. Dolphins -- Alabama defensive end Courtney Upshaw
The Dolphins are transitioning from a 3-4 to 4-3 defense under new coordinator Kevin Coyle. They have ingredients to fill five of the adjusted front-seven positions, but are short one thumping inside 'backer and a bookend pass rusher for Cameron Wake. While No. 9 overall is too soon for Boston College's Luke Kuechly, Upshaw provides marquee value at the back end of the top ten. He'd be a powerful complement to Wake's speed, bull rushing off the strong side with a relentless motor.
10. Bills -- South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram
The Bills are implementing a base 4-3 up front, but plan to be "multiple" on defense in an effort to keep offenses off balance. With versatility as his calling card, Ingram is what the doctor ordered. Ingram was productive as a 4-3 defensive tackle, 4-3 end, and 3-4 outside 'backer in the SEC, wreaking havoc with power, explosiveness, and closing speed that jumps off the page. Buffalo finished 30th in the league in sacks in 2011, and Ingram has a knack for quarterback disruption.
Rotoworld college scouting correspondent Josh Norris and myself worked last week to formulate a mock draft we believed would be most like an NFL team's at this point in the draft process. Some clubs do write up their own mocks before the draft to give everyone in the room an idea of how selections might go.
With Josh doing a lot of fact finding in addition to his own evaluating on the all-star game tour over the past several weeks, we believe there are a number of prospects being overvalued and undervalued in pre-Combine, pre-free agency media mocks. We'll pinpoint those players in a future column, but you'll get a pretty good idea after reading this top-32 projection.
1. Colts -- Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck
New GM Ryan Grigson and coach Chuck Pagano aim to be competitive quickly in Indianapolis, even after remaking the roster on both sides of the football. At the most valuable position in pro sports, Luck is considered more NFL-ready than Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. The Colts will release Peyton Manning before his roster bonus due date, and Luck will be a Week 1 starter in new coordinator Bruce Arians' aggressive, pass-oriented offense.
2. Rams -- USC left tackle Matt Kalil
The Rams knew early that former No. 2 overall pick Jason Smith would bust. Rodger Saffold has not worked out on the blind side and will likely move to right tackle under new coach Jeff Fisher. While Kalil must add muscle to realize his run-blocking potential, he will be a huge plus in pass protection from day one. Early-career hits are becoming a major concern for young quarterback Sam Bradford. He's taken 70 sacks and been forced to fumble 17 times in his first 26 games.
3. Vikings -- Iowa left tackle Riley Reiff
Reiff has generated relatively scant pre-draft recognition as an underclassman ineligible for all-star games, but he's arguably the top all-around tackle available. NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock has Reiff ranked ahead even of Kalil. A more polished run blocker than Kalil and superior prospect to Stanford's Jonathan Martin and Ohio State's Mike Adams, Reiff's perceived stock will skyrocket around Combine time. Left tackle is the most glaring need on Minnesota's roster.
4. Browns -- Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III
Griffin is the most dynamic offensive talent in the 2012 draft, and Browns coach Pat Shurmur is well aware his fate would be sealed by another year of backup-caliber quarterback Colt McCoy under center. Griffin's ability to stand strong when the pocket collapses is his lone question mark. He has an outstanding combination of arm strength, accuracy, athleticism, and intelligence.
5. Buccaneers -- Alabama running back Trent Richardson
New Bucs coach Greg Schiano is an ardent believer in the run game, frequently using two-back committees (e.g. Ray Rice and Brian Leonard) to pound opponents into submission. In 11 years at Rutgers, Schiano's offenses finished with more rushing attempts than passes nine times. Running backs are rarely worth top-five draft picks, but Richardson is, and the Bucs need far more than LeGarrette Blount can give them in order to make good on Schiano's philosophy.
6. Redskins -- Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill
While public perception has Tannehill's stock freefalling after pre-draft foot surgery, the former Texas A&M wideout remains entrenched as this year's No. 3 quarterback. Tannehill is a big-armed athlete unafraid of an oncoming rush, and possesses tools ideally suited for the Shanahan offense. While the Redskins may hope to "ease in" Tannehill after only 19 college starts, he is more NFL-ready than the stats suggest after learning Mike Sherman's West Coast system.
7. Jaguars -- North Carolina defensive end Quinton Coples
Though some observers deemed Coples' senior year disappointing from a production standpoint, the 6-foot-6, 281-pound athletic freak still paced the Tar Heels in sacks (7.5), tackles for loss (15), quarterback pressures, and forced fumbles (3). Coples is perhaps the most Julius Peppers-like prospect to be draft-eligible since Peppers himself was selected second overall in 2002. Following a dominant Senior Bowl performance, Coples has solidified himself as a top-eight 2012 draft pick.
8. Panthers -- LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne
A shutdown cover man and on-ball playmaker (11 INTs in two seasons as a starter), Claiborne is this year's top secondary prospect. More scheme diverse than LSU predecessor Patrick Peterson, Claiborne possesses fluid hips to eliminate receivers in off coverage as well as man. Panthers brass may prefer Coples fall to them at No. 8, but elite pass rushers are routinely drafted ahead of defensive backs. Paired with Chris Gamble, Claiborne would give Carolina the NFC South's most talented corner duo. And a better chance to halt pass-first attacks of New Orleans and Atlanta.
9. Dolphins -- Alabama defensive end Courtney Upshaw
The Dolphins are transitioning from a 3-4 to 4-3 defense under new coordinator Kevin Coyle. They have ingredients to fill five of the adjusted front-seven positions, but are short one thumping inside 'backer and a bookend pass rusher for Cameron Wake. While No. 9 overall is too soon for Boston College's Luke Kuechly, Upshaw provides marquee value at the back end of the top ten. He'd be a powerful complement to Wake's speed, bull rushing off the strong side with a relentless motor.
10. Bills -- South Carolina defensive end Melvin Ingram
The Bills are implementing a base 4-3 up front, but plan to be "multiple" on defense in an effort to keep offenses off balance. With versatility as his calling card, Ingram is what the doctor ordered. Ingram was productive as a 4-3 defensive tackle, 4-3 end, and 3-4 outside 'backer in the SEC, wreaking havoc with power, explosiveness, and closing speed that jumps off the page. Buffalo finished 30th in the league in sacks in 2011, and Ingram has a knack for quarterback disruption.
11. Chiefs -- Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin
Coming from Stanford's run-first, pro-style offense, Martin made 37 starts on Luck's blind side. He is an athletic tackle with quick feet, and capable of playing either side. In K.C., left tackle Branden Albert is entering a contract year. Free agent right tackle Barry Richardson must be replaced. G.M. Scott Pioli remains committed to Matt Cassel, but the Chiefs will need to keep him upright and healthy if Cassel is to have any chance of fulfilling the potential the front office envisions.
12. Seahawks -- Penn State defensive tackle Devon Still
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll's scheme stresses run stoppage at left defensive end, employing a "five technique" on the strong side of his 4-3 alignment. Seattle may lose incumbent Red Bryant to free agency, and is likely looking to upgrade after his disappointing contract season. While Still is a bit lighter in the pants (6'5/307) than Bryant (6'4/323), the upgrade in terms of pass-rush ability would be significant and welcomed for a defense that finished the season ranked 22nd in sacks.
13. Cardinals -- Stanford guard David DeCastro
The Cardinals may hope Martin falls to No. 13, but they need just as much help on the interior as Deuce Lutui enters free agency and incumbent right guard Rex Hadnot returns from a poor year. A first-team All-American, DeCastro projects as an instant difference maker at Hadnot's position.
14. Cowboys -- North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins
During Senior Bowl interviews, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones pinpointed the secondary as Dallas' greatest area of offseason need. Jenkins is feisty and physical, fluid in the hips with ball skills and a willingness to hit. Assuming his background checks out after three marijuana-related arrests at Florida, Jenkins won't struggle to be a top-20 choice. He'd be a day-one starter for the Cowboys.
15. Eagles -- Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright
The Eagles figure to look elsewhere if they re-sign free agent DeSean Jackson, but there are no guarantees after D-Jax's petulance caused in-season turmoil and his production sagged. Wright is a more versatile wideout than Jackson, having excelled both from the slot and out wide. With a 42-inch vertical and 4.3 speed, Wright is also the premier deep threat in this year's receiver class.
16. Jets -- Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon
Blackmon is a media darling after twice winning college football's Biletnikoff Award and scoring three touchdowns in the Fiesta Bowl, two on busted coverages and the third on a badly blown tackle. NFL teams will not grade Blackmon as a top-ten prospect after he runs a 4.55-4.60 at the Combine. Blackmon would fit in New York, however, as a physical, possession-type No. 2 receiver to book end Santonio Holmes. Free agent Plaxico Burress is certain to move on.
17. Bengals -- Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick
Cornerback has gone from Cincinnati's defensive strength to a weakness in the span of one year. Top corner Leon Hall is coming off a torn Achilles', and the Bengals were unable to replace 2011 free agent loss Johnathan Joseph. Kirkpatrick's January 17 arrest for marijuana possession may remove him from some teams' draft boards, but not Cincinnati's. A physical cornerback with rare length, Kirkpatrick would be a consummate fit for coordinator Mike Zimmer's press-man scheme.
18. Chargers -- Illinois outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus
Chargers GM A.J. Smith's pursuit of pass rush seems never-ending, but he's on the prowl once again this offseason. No pass rusher in the nation accomplished more than Mercilus in 2011. The Ted Hendricks Award winner led the NCAA in sacks (16) and forced fumbles (9), also pacing the Big Ten in tackles for loss (22.5). Mercilus is rough around the edges and must transition from college end to pro 3-4 outside linebacker, but his production will be difficult for Smith to overlook.
19. Bears -- Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd
While his run-after-catch skills aren't quite on par, Floyd's game resembles old Jay Cutler pal Brandon Marshall's more so than any draft-eligible wideout. At 6-foot-3, 229, Floyd is a physical specimen with experience at all three receiver positions, respectable 4.5 speed, and a work ethic that has resulted in annual improvement. Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice has prioritized finding a playmaking receiver this offseason. If Chicago emerges from free agency without one and Floyd is available at No. 19, the Bears' first-round draft card couldn't be turned in too quickly.
20. Titans -- Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe
Poe's collegiate resume doesn't jump off the page, but the athletic, 6-foot-5, 350-pound behemoth will be coveted on draft day. Titans defensive line coach Tracy Rocker is still in search of wide bodies to execute his scheme. While returning rookies Karl Klug and Jurell Casey flashed promise as first-year pass rushers at 300 pounds or less, Poe would add a new dimension as an immovable nose tackle capable of attracting double teams and swallowing up enemy ball carriers.
21. Bengals -- Boise State running back Doug Martin
The Bengals are moving on from free agent Cedric Benson, whose lack of versatility had limiting effects on coordinator Jay Gruden's West Coast offense. Martin is the anti-Benson as a skilled pass protector and smooth receiver with surprising power for a 5-foot-9, 219-pound runner. Also unlike Benson, Martin has speed to go the distance. He'll run in the 4.4s at the Scouting Combine.
22. Browns -- USC defensive end Nick Perry
The Browns determined quickly that 2011 No. 37 overall pick Jabaal Sheard's best position is left end, and Sheard held down the fort effectively with 8.5 rookie-year sacks and a team-high five forced fumbles. Right end remains a glaring need in Cleveland, however, and Perry could fit the bill as a 250-pound rusher with quick-twitch athleticism and speed to give left tackles fits.
23. Lions -- Ohio State left tackle Mike Adams
Incumbent Lions left tackle Jeff Backus is entering his age-35 season without a contract, and coming off surgery to repair a torn biceps muscle. Right tackle Gosder Cherilus is in the last year of his rookie deal. It's past time G.M. Martin Mayhew began taking offensive line upgrades seriously. While Adams' consistency has come under fire, the 6-foot-7, 323-pound prospect has as high a ceiling as any pass protector in this year's draft. In a best-case scenario, the Lions could get one more season out of Backus and turn to Adams on Matthew Stafford's blind side by 2013.
24. Steelers -- Georgia guard/tackle Cordy Glenn
Glenn needs technical work and many teams will project him to guard, but the Steelers value effectiveness over mechanics with a preference for big bodies. At 6-foot-6, 346 with 35-inch arms, Glenn is a ready-made Steelers lineman. He'd be a Week 1 starter in Pittsburgh, at guard if Willie Colon stays outside or tackle if Colon moves to the interior. Another option would be to keep RT Marcus Gilbert in place, kick Colon to guard, and start Glenn on Ben Roethlisberger's left side.
25. Broncos -- Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox
It's a credit to outgoing defensive coordinator Dennis Allen's staff that Denver applied consistent pressure in 2011 with no pass-rush threat from the interior. Broncos defensive tackles combined for four sacks, and they all came from rotational lineman Ryan McBean. Starter Brodrick Bunkley is a free agent, and the Broncos should consider anything they get from injury-prone Ty Warren a bonus in 2012. While Cox is an angular inside presence at 6-foot-4, 295, he could at least be an upgrade on McBean while working to fill out his frame. Cox has a ways to go as a run defender.
26. Texans -- South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore
Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips likes his cornerbacks physical, aggressive, and to play press-man. Drawing Quentin Jammer comparisons for his size (6'1/193) and fondness for disrupting routes at the line, Gilmore would be a more than adequate replacement for free agent CB Jason Allen. This pick could also make up for 2010 first-round bust Kareem Jackson.
27. Patriots -- LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers
The Pats primarily ran a 4-3 defense in 2011, but coach Bill Belichick likely would have preferred to be more "multiple." While Brockers has not yet developed a pass-rushing repertoire, he is a power player at 6-foot-6, 306 and just turned 21 years old. Brockers would play five-technique defensive end in 3-4 looks, providing a considerable talent upgrade on Brandon Deaderick.
28. Packers -- Miami running back Lamar Miller
Green Bay waddled through the 2011 season with a pedestrian backfield, averaging under 4.0 yards per rushing attempt. Missing was a homerun-hitter at tailback capable of exploiting lanes created by a lethal passing attack. With Ryan Grant entering free agency and 2011 third-round pick Alex Green failing to earn playing time before a torn left ACL, running back is a need area for the Green and Yellow. Miller has 4.3 jets and run skills to diversify one of the NFL's top offenses.
29. Ravens -- Wake Forest wide receiver Chris Givens
It's no secret that Baltimore's offense sputtered in 2011 due to the receivers' continued struggles to create separation. Torrey Smith flashed improved route running down the stretch, but remains a project entering his second season. Anquan Boldin's game is eroding going on age 32, and Lee Evans will be a roster bonus casualty. A surefire Combine riser, Givens has drawn Antonio Brown comparisons as a dangerous downfield threat who beat out higher-profile wideouts like North Carolina's Dwight Jones and N.C. State's T.J. Graham for first-team All-ACC honors in 2011.
30. 49ers -- Alabama safety Mark Barron
Barron is a methodical, intelligent safety with experience at both free and strong. A playmaker on the ball, Barron recorded 12 interceptions at Alabama, learning pro-style concepts in the back end of Nick Saban's 3-4. He was a two-time first-team All American. Two of San Francisco's top three safeties are free agents (Dashon Goldson, Reggie Smith), and Barron is a value pick at No. 30.
31. Patriots -- Appalachian State wide receiver Brian Quick
Quick generated mixed Senior Bowl reviews, but his regular season tape was indicative of a top-50 prospect, and his long-term upside is as high as any wideout who will be drafted. A vicious crack-back blocker with vertical tools, Quick is an unselfish player in the Patriots' mold. New England's offense forces defenses to leave outside receivers in single coverage, but they currently lack the personnel to exploit potential mismatches. This was especially evident in Sunday's Super Bowl loss, as Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco were non-factors at a time they needed to step up with Rob Gronkowski hobbled. Quick could be the answer.
32. Giants -- Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly
New York essentially played the 2011 campaign without a middle linebacker. Ex-starter Jonathan Goff missed the season with a torn ACL, the Greg Jones experiment predictably failed, and street free agent signee Chase Blackburn closed out the year "starting," but was removed from as many packages as possible. In oft-used nickel sets, the Giants employed three safeties with rookie Jacquian Williams and Michael Boley as the lone two linebackers. Kuechly could turn a weakness into a strength. He is an incredibly efficient tackler and athletic enough to play on all three downs.
Just Missed: South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery, Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden, Arizona State LB Vontaze Burfict, North Carolina LB Zach Brown, LSU WR Rueben Randle, Boise State S George Iloka, Virginia Tech RB David Wilson, Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard, Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy, Clemson DT Brandon Thompson, Notre Dame S Harrison Smith, Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler, Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu, Washington RB Chris Polk, Nebraska DT Jared Crick, Alabama LB Dont'a Hightower, Georgia TE Orson Charles, Clemson TE Dwayne Allen, Washington DT Alameda Ta'amu, Wisconsin C Peter Konz, Iowa State T/G Kelechi Osemele.