Welcome to the sixth-annual Top-50 keepers spectacular. A few thoughts on the changing nature of NFL offenses before we get to the proceedings:
With three passers over 5,000 yards and another within 70 of reaching the mark, we realize 2011 was the year of the quarterback. Change happens quickly in the NFL, and last season brought a confluence from the lockout after-effects, illegal-contact rules inhibiting pass defenders, innovative play-callers, and a continuation of the trend away from workhorse running backs.
The league’s two most prolific passers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, were buoyed by the acumen of their front office and coaching staff in targeting athletic tight ends and almost immediately exploiting mismatches and loopholes created by the strict rules limiting contact by linebackers and defensive backs at the point of the catch.
While the tight-end position has been revolutionized, fantasy football continues to witness the decline of the running-back driven draft. The league’s most prescient coaches now institute plans to keep their most effective runners healthy for December and January through tandem attacks that play to a back’s specific back’s skill-set.
“I’m not interested in a 1,700-yard back,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said in November. “It takes a pounding. I want James [Starks] as fresh as he was last year at the most critical time of the year. Same with Ryan [Grant]. It’s important to play with multiple backs. I’m a big believer in that.”
Fantasy owners can rail against the committee attack, but it’s not going away. The four highest NFL seasons in rushing yards per carry are 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 -- in that order.
The result? There are only seven running backs in our top-20 keepers this year, down from 12 in 2011, 10 in 2010, and 13 in 2009. The average positional breakdown in five previous editions of this list is 7 QBs, 23.5 RBs, 17 WRs, and 2.5 TEs. This year’s list has produced 9 QBs, 15 RBs, 22 WRs, and 4 TEs.
A few more thoughts on keeper-league dynamics:
1. The key to fantasy football success will always be acquiring as many difference-makers as possible. As we’ve pointed out in previous editions of this article, roughly half of the Top-10 at any position will repeat their performance from the previous year. Any player can post a good or even great season, but it's the uniquely talented and driven studs that produce year-in and year-out. These players must be valued highly even if a flavor-of-the-month might post better stats in a best-case scenario (i.e. Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount last season).
2. These rankings are geared toward short-term keeper leagues where owners are generally keeping anywhere from two-to-five players from year-to-year. While keeper leagues value stability more than redraft leagues, they also value short-term production more than Dynasty formats. Rotoworld's Dynasty ranks (coming later this month) necessarily emphasize talent over situation while projecting value beyond the next season. Keeper rankings, on the other hand, must value talent and situation equally while focusing primarily on the upcoming season and secondarily on the long view.
3. The upcoming prospect Combine will serve as a handy reminder that player values are anything but static even in the offseason. Free agency, trades, the NFL draft, OTAs, and training camp will keep player values fluctuating right up to the start of the fantasy drafts in August.
Where will Peyton Manning land? Could his addition lead to career-years for Larry Fitzgerald or Brandon Marshall? Will Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, and DeSean Jackson be hit with the franchise tag or be granted their freedom? Will a Panthers coach provide clues that Jonathan Stewart could be headed for a much-deserved increased role? Is Ryan Mathews a top-five fantasy back if Mike Tolbert walks?
Keep up with Rotoworld’s always-fresh news page, and you will be prepared when it’s time to finalize keeper selections later this spring or summer.
These keeper rankings assume the scoring is for a standard non-PPR league. PPR leaguers should make the necessary adjustments on receivers and pass-catching backs.
On to the near misses!
Just Missed
Previous ranks in parentheses
DeSean Jackson, Eagles (31, 26) - While Jackson remains a unique talent, he’s now reached the “show me” stage of his NFL career. A one-trick pony who refuses to go over the middle, drops too many wide open downfield passes, and disappears for long stretches, Jackson is purely a wild card for the 2012 season.
Matt Ryan, Falcons - A strong second-half produced career-highs in yards and TDs, but Ryan’s playoff breakdown was another reminder that he doesn’t trust his offensive line or his own ability to make stick throws into tight windows. Unless he gains arm strength and confidence, Ryan will stall out as a low-end QB1.
Peyton Hillis (40) - Increasingly injury-prone with a fumbling problem and dwindling per-carry average, Hillis is a bit of chimera. He’s most valuable as a workhorse, three-down battering ram, but his body can’t withstand the pounding while staying healthy and effective. As a free agent, his Browns future is up in the air.
Beanie Wells (NR, 42) - I hate to drop Beanie out of the top 50 after a stellar season, but he doesn’t catch passes, can’t stay healthy, will lose touches to Ryan Williams, and relied too much on touchdowns for 2011 fantasy value.
Antonio Brown, Steelers - Brown is a more refined route runner than Mike Wallace, seeing more targets with just 88 fewer yards in a breakout season. While he may continue to feast on the single coverage afforded by Wallace’s presence, he’s never going to match the deep threat in touchdowns. I need to see a repeat before anointing Brown as a bonafide top-15 WR.
Steven Jackson (22, 6, 4) - An underappreciated warrior on a string of embarrassing teams, S-Jax is one of my favorite players of the past decade. It’s not his fault that running back is a young man’s bailiwick. Turning 29 in July while embarking on another rebuilding season, Jackson is better left for redraft leagues.
Frank Gore (19, 5, 6) - A series of nagging injuries slowed Gore’s production to a crawl in the second half, and Jim Harbaugh’s offense rendered him a fantasy non-factor as a receiver. Like Jackson, Gore is looking down the barrel of age 30. The Niners would do well to work Kendall Hunter in next season, saving wear and tear on Gore for the season’s stretch run.
Jermichael Finley, Packers (46) - There’s reason to believe Finley’s 13 drops were a one-year aberration, but the bigger problem is that he’s been passed by Jordy Nelson in Aaron Rodgers’ pecking order. As a free agent, Finley’s Green Bay future is cloudy.
Antonio Gates (39, 41, 46) - Once a no-brainer keeper due to his edge over the rest of the NFL’s tight ends, Gates can no longer keep up with the new guard while battling chronic foot injuries. The 32-year-old (in June) remains a top-five redraft tight end, but the risk is no longer worth the reward in keeper formats.
Ben Roethlisberger (NR, 35) - Big Ben flirted with QB1 status under pass-heavy coordinator Bruce Arians, but there was never much separating his fantasy production from the ranks of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Mark Sanchez. While still an elite NFL QB, Roethlisberger isn’t worthy of keeper status until he emerges as a weekly advantage.
The Next 10: C.J. Spiller, Demaryius Thomas, Roy Helu, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Stevie Johnson, Mark Ingram, Fred Davis, Michael Bush, Brandon Lloyd
Editor's Note: For offseason NFL news and analysis, follow @ChrisWesseling,@EvanSilva,@AdamLevitan,@RotoPat and @Rotoworld_FB on Twitter.
Falling off the List
Ranking from last three seasons in parentheses
Peyton Manning, Colts? (18, 9, 21) - The 36-year-old (in March) is impossible to rank not only due to the uncertainty of his 2012 team, but also the numbness, atrophy, and loss of arm strength in his upper throwing arm. Gun to my head, I’d bet against Manning placing in the top-10 among fantasy QBs more than once from here on out.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (23, 18, 14) - Don’t cry for D-Will’s removal from the top-50 keepers. He’s going to sleep soundly on top of the $21 million the Panthers foolishly guaranteed last July.
Reggie Wayne, Colts (29, 12, 13) - Wayne was a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver in his own right, but a substantial percentage of his WR1 value was tied up in his quarterback. The odds are stacked against that reunion in 2012, and Wayne’s skills are clearly slipping at age 33.
Michael Turner (30, 8, 8) - Rotoworld has developed a reputation as Turner detractors, and we can’t apologize for it. While “Burner” was a strong fantasy bet early in his Falcons career, he’s now an aging back worn down by heavy workloads and a nagging groin injury with no role in the passing game. An offensive millstone down the stretch, Turner will have his role reduced in 2012 if the Falcons opt to pay his $5 million salary.
Ahmad Bradshaw (33) - Obviously the better of the two Giants backs, Bradshaw continues to lack stability in keeper formats due to chronic foot/ankle woes and an inconsistent workload. He’s a committee back.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (35) - The No. 12 overall pick in the 2009 has fallen from the prospect ranks after losing his job to Willis McGahee, tearing his ACL, and capping it off with a drunk-driving arrest.
Jahvid Best, Lions (37) - Best’s six games produced top-10 fantasy output, but his football future is bleak after three known concussions in the past three seasons. While the talent may be undeniable, Best is no longer in control of his football career. A best-case scenario would be a return to a limited role as the Lions’ answer to Darren Sproles.
Shonn Greene (41, 48) - Greene’s role should be scaled back after finishing 30th in yards-after-contact among running backs and losing goal-line duties to Mark Sanchez. A third of his fantasy output came in just two December games.
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (42) - A poor man’s Michael Turner, Blount lacks lateral agility, isn’t trusted in the passing game, fails too often in short-yardage, and can’t hold onto the football. This is a role player, not a foundation back.
Felix Jones, Cowboys (48, 50) - Lacking the power and the durability to succeed between the tackles, Jones is headed back to his ideal change-of-pace role behind DeMarco Murray.
Welcome to the sixth-annual Top-50 keepers spectacular. A few thoughts on the changing nature of NFL offenses before we get to the proceedings:
With three passers over 5,000 yards and another within 70 of reaching the mark, we realize 2011 was the year of the quarterback. Change happens quickly in the NFL, and last season brought a confluence from the lockout after-effects, illegal-contact rules inhibiting pass defenders, innovative play-callers, and a continuation of the trend away from workhorse running backs.
The league’s two most prolific passers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady, were buoyed by the acumen of their front office and coaching staff in targeting athletic tight ends and almost immediately exploiting mismatches and loopholes created by the strict rules limiting contact by linebackers and defensive backs at the point of the catch.
While the tight-end position has been revolutionized, fantasy football continues to witness the decline of the running-back driven draft. The league’s most prescient coaches now institute plans to keep their most effective runners healthy for December and January through tandem attacks that play to a back’s specific back’s skill-set.
“I’m not interested in a 1,700-yard back,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said in November. “It takes a pounding. I want James [Starks] as fresh as he was last year at the most critical time of the year. Same with Ryan [Grant]. It’s important to play with multiple backs. I’m a big believer in that.”
Fantasy owners can rail against the committee attack, but it’s not going away. The four highest NFL seasons in rushing yards per carry are 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 -- in that order.
The result? There are only seven running backs in our top-20 keepers this year, down from 12 in 2011, 10 in 2010, and 13 in 2009. The average positional breakdown in five previous editions of this list is 7 QBs, 23.5 RBs, 17 WRs, and 2.5 TEs. This year’s list has produced 9 QBs, 15 RBs, 22 WRs, and 4 TEs.
A few more thoughts on keeper-league dynamics:
1. The key to fantasy football success will always be acquiring as many difference-makers as possible. As we’ve pointed out in previous editions of this article, roughly half of the Top-10 at any position will repeat their performance from the previous year. Any player can post a good or even great season, but it's the uniquely talented and driven studs that produce year-in and year-out. These players must be valued highly even if a flavor-of-the-month might post better stats in a best-case scenario (i.e. Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount last season).
2. These rankings are geared toward short-term keeper leagues where owners are generally keeping anywhere from two-to-five players from year-to-year. While keeper leagues value stability more than redraft leagues, they also value short-term production more than Dynasty formats. Rotoworld's Dynasty ranks (coming later this month) necessarily emphasize talent over situation while projecting value beyond the next season. Keeper rankings, on the other hand, must value talent and situation equally while focusing primarily on the upcoming season and secondarily on the long view.
3. The upcoming prospect Combine will serve as a handy reminder that player values are anything but static even in the offseason. Free agency, trades, the NFL draft, OTAs, and training camp will keep player values fluctuating right up to the start of the fantasy drafts in August.
Where will Peyton Manning land? Could his addition lead to career-years for Larry Fitzgerald or Brandon Marshall? Will Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, and DeSean Jackson be hit with the franchise tag or be granted their freedom? Will a Panthers coach provide clues that Jonathan Stewart could be headed for a much-deserved increased role? Is Ryan Mathews a top-five fantasy back if Mike Tolbert walks?
Keep up with Rotoworld’s always-fresh news page, and you will be prepared when it’s time to finalize keeper selections later this spring or summer.
These keeper rankings assume the scoring is for a standard non-PPR league. PPR leaguers should make the necessary adjustments on receivers and pass-catching backs.
On to the near misses!
Just Missed
Previous ranks in parentheses
DeSean Jackson, Eagles (31, 26) - While Jackson remains a unique talent, he’s now reached the “show me” stage of his NFL career. A one-trick pony who refuses to go over the middle, drops too many wide open downfield passes, and disappears for long stretches, Jackson is purely a wild card for the 2012 season.
Matt Ryan, Falcons - A strong second-half produced career-highs in yards and TDs, but Ryan’s playoff breakdown was another reminder that he doesn’t trust his offensive line or his own ability to make stick throws into tight windows. Unless he gains arm strength and confidence, Ryan will stall out as a low-end QB1.
Peyton Hillis (40) - Increasingly injury-prone with a fumbling problem and dwindling per-carry average, Hillis is a bit of chimera. He’s most valuable as a workhorse, three-down battering ram, but his body can’t withstand the pounding while staying healthy and effective. As a free agent, his Browns future is up in the air.
Beanie Wells (NR, 42) - I hate to drop Beanie out of the top 50 after a stellar season, but he doesn’t catch passes, can’t stay healthy, will lose touches to Ryan Williams, and relied too much on touchdowns for 2011 fantasy value.
Antonio Brown, Steelers - Brown is a more refined route runner than Mike Wallace, seeing more targets with just 88 fewer yards in a breakout season. While he may continue to feast on the single coverage afforded by Wallace’s presence, he’s never going to match the deep threat in touchdowns. I need to see a repeat before anointing Brown as a bonafide top-15 WR.
Steven Jackson (22, 6, 4) - An underappreciated warrior on a string of embarrassing teams, S-Jax is one of my favorite players of the past decade. It’s not his fault that running back is a young man’s bailiwick. Turning 29 in July while embarking on another rebuilding season, Jackson is better left for redraft leagues.
Frank Gore (19, 5, 6) - A series of nagging injuries slowed Gore’s production to a crawl in the second half, and Jim Harbaugh’s offense rendered him a fantasy non-factor as a receiver. Like Jackson, Gore is looking down the barrel of age 30. The Niners would do well to work Kendall Hunter in next season, saving wear and tear on Gore for the season’s stretch run.
Jermichael Finley, Packers (46) - There’s reason to believe Finley’s 13 drops were a one-year aberration, but the bigger problem is that he’s been passed by Jordy Nelson in Aaron Rodgers’ pecking order. As a free agent, Finley’s Green Bay future is cloudy.
Antonio Gates (39, 41, 46) - Once a no-brainer keeper due to his edge over the rest of the NFL’s tight ends, Gates can no longer keep up with the new guard while battling chronic foot injuries. The 32-year-old (in June) remains a top-five redraft tight end, but the risk is no longer worth the reward in keeper formats.
Ben Roethlisberger (NR, 35) - Big Ben flirted with QB1 status under pass-heavy coordinator Bruce Arians, but there was never much separating his fantasy production from the ranks of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Mark Sanchez. While still an elite NFL QB, Roethlisberger isn’t worthy of keeper status until he emerges as a weekly advantage.
The Next 10: C.J. Spiller, Demaryius Thomas, Roy Helu, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Stevie Johnson, Mark Ingram, Fred Davis, Michael Bush, Brandon Lloyd
Editor's Note: For offseason NFL news and analysis, follow @ChrisWesseling,@EvanSilva,@AdamLevitan,@RotoPat and @Rotoworld_FB on Twitter.
Falling off the List
Ranking from last three seasons in parentheses
Peyton Manning, Colts? (18, 9, 21) - The 36-year-old (in March) is impossible to rank not only due to the uncertainty of his 2012 team, but also the numbness, atrophy, and loss of arm strength in his upper throwing arm. Gun to my head, I’d bet against Manning placing in the top-10 among fantasy QBs more than once from here on out.
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (23, 18, 14) - Don’t cry for D-Will’s removal from the top-50 keepers. He’s going to sleep soundly on top of the $21 million the Panthers foolishly guaranteed last July.
Reggie Wayne, Colts (29, 12, 13) - Wayne was a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver in his own right, but a substantial percentage of his WR1 value was tied up in his quarterback. The odds are stacked against that reunion in 2012, and Wayne’s skills are clearly slipping at age 33.
Michael Turner (30, 8, 8) - Rotoworld has developed a reputation as Turner detractors, and we can’t apologize for it. While “Burner” was a strong fantasy bet early in his Falcons career, he’s now an aging back worn down by heavy workloads and a nagging groin injury with no role in the passing game. An offensive millstone down the stretch, Turner will have his role reduced in 2012 if the Falcons opt to pay his $5 million salary.
Ahmad Bradshaw (33) - Obviously the better of the two Giants backs, Bradshaw continues to lack stability in keeper formats due to chronic foot/ankle woes and an inconsistent workload. He’s a committee back.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (35) - The No. 12 overall pick in the 2009 has fallen from the prospect ranks after losing his job to Willis McGahee, tearing his ACL, and capping it off with a drunk-driving arrest.
Jahvid Best, Lions (37) - Best’s six games produced top-10 fantasy output, but his football future is bleak after three known concussions in the past three seasons. While the talent may be undeniable, Best is no longer in control of his football career. A best-case scenario would be a return to a limited role as the Lions’ answer to Darren Sproles.
Shonn Greene (41, 48) - Greene’s role should be scaled back after finishing 30th in yards-after-contact among running backs and losing goal-line duties to Mark Sanchez. A third of his fantasy output came in just two December games.
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (42) - A poor man’s Michael Turner, Blount lacks lateral agility, isn’t trusted in the passing game, fails too often in short-yardage, and can’t hold onto the football. This is a role player, not a foundation back.
Felix Jones, Cowboys (48, 50) - Lacking the power and the durability to succeed between the tackles, Jones is headed back to his ideal change-of-pace role behind DeMarco Murray.
50. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (12, 14) - Mendenhall turns 25 in April while recovering from ACL surgery on the heels of a disappointing fantasy season. There’s buy-low potential here with the Steelers ostensibly recommitting to the run under a new coordinator, but the payoff may be a year away due to the timetable on Mendenhall’s full recovery.
49. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles (45) - Maclin’s year-three numbers would have been more impressive if not for Week 1 rustiness due to a mysterious illness followed by second-half hamstring and shoulder injuries that caused him to miss three games and parts of two others. A healthy Maclin is a good bet for WR2 numbers going forward, and the upside is higher if DeSean Jackson departs via trade or free agency.
48. Vernon Davis, 49ers (49) - Reliable beat writer Matt Maiocco noted that Davis finally “clicked” late in the season after “struggling mightily” to pick up Jim Harbaugh’s offense. The statistical evidence supports that claim. Arguably the best player on the field in all three games, Davis averaged 136.7 yards with four total TDs from Week 17 through the NFC Championship loss compared to under 45 yards per from Weeks 1-16. Look out for double-digit scores and a first career 1,000-yard season in 2012.
47. Dez Bryant, Cowboys (50) - While the off-field news continues to be overblown, it’s true that Bryant’s nagging injuries, sub-optimal conditioning, and spotty route running prevented a true breakout season. The good news is that Bryant was credited with improving the latter as the season progressed, and he still finished as a top-15 fantasy receiver at age 23. Only Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald can match Bryant’s red-zone prowess. If the light finally flips on, Bryant could vie with those two for best receiver in the NFL honors.
46. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots - According to Pro Football Focus, Hernandez forced 23 missed tackles in 2011, which is six more than any other wide receiver or tight end. Despite losing two games to a knee sprain, Hernandez finished behind only Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham in fantasy points among tight ends. Still one of NFL’s youngest players at age 22, Hernandez’s arrow is pointing up with the increased backfield snaps in the playoffs.
45. Marques Colston, Saints (43, 32, 32) - “Catch-Radius” Colston finished seventh in total fantasy points despite missing two games with a fractured collarbone. Averaging well over a surgery per season, Colston continues to produce borderline WR1 numbers as Drew Brees’ indestructible go-to receiver. The only kryptonite is an exit from the Big Easy, a possibility if Colston hits the open market in March. Move him up 5-7 spots if he re-signs with the Saints.
44. Kenny Britt, Titans (47) - The 23-year-old was emerging as one of the top five receivers in the NFL before his season-ending ACL injury in September. Britt was not only getting open with ease at the second level, he was also producing as a reliable possession receiver for Matt Hasselbeck. While there’s some risk due to the injury and Britt’s off-field track record, the upside is enormous in a Titans offense that could feature legit playmakers at quarterback (Jake Locker - 8.2 yards per on 66 attempts), running back (Chris Johnson), and tight end (Jared Cook - over 100 yards per over the final three games).
43. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (38) - Though his output was highly inconsistent in 2011, V-Jax has still finished as a top-12 fantasy receiver in each of his past three full seasons. One of the NFL’s most effective beyond 20 yards, in the red zone, and in percentage of receptions producing first downs, Jackson will draw plenty of interest if the Chargers allow him to hit the open market in March. His skill-set should translate to any offense in the league.
42. Miles Austin, Cowboys (24, 19) - Austin’s output was ravaged by a pair of hamstring injuries (one to each leg), though he still finished in the top-15 in fantasy points per game thanks to a career-high touchdown percentage. While his talent -- particularly after the catch -- is among the league’s best, keeper owners have to be concerned with so many mouths to feed in the Cowboys’ offense.
41. Jordy Nelson, Packers - Nelson closed out the season as a top-three fantasy WR due to single coverage, refined route running, explosive run-after-catch ability, increased trust from his QB, Greg Jennings’ late-season knee injury, and -- last but not least -- unsustainable good luck with the deep ball. Pro Football Focus notes that Nelson accrued half of his yards and scores on passes thrown 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. The talent and high-powered offense may be legit, but the elite WR1 production is fleeting.
40. Steve Smith, Panthers (NR, 31, 16) - As expected, it took only a QB upgrade to prove that Smith remains one of the NFL’s few true No. 1 receivers capable of producing WR1 numbers while drawing double coverage. Only Calvin Johnson boasted more 20-yard receptions than Smith’s 29, evidence that the soon-to-be 33-year-old still has plenty left in the tank. As long as he and Cam Newton both stay healthy in 2012, another top-eight fantasy finish is not only possible but likely.
39. Philip Rivers, Chargers (27, 33, 43) - A tattered offensive line, depleted receiver corps, and his own errant passing killed Rivers’ fantasy output over the season’s first two months, but he did respond with 270+ yards or three TDs in each of his final five games -- finishing in the top-10 among QBs for the fourth consecutive season. His value drops to the low 40s if Vincent Jackson doesn’t re-sign with the Bolts.
38. Percy Harvin, Vikings - Despite the early-season hand-wringing over Harvin’s playing time, new OC Bill Musgrave still put the ball in his hands once every 2.3 snaps. From late November on, Harvin was utilized as a double-threat on the ground and through the air, turning back the clock to his Gator days as the most explosive player on the field. Still just 23 years old, Harvin averaged 103.3 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 11.3 touches per game from Week 10 on while easily establishing career-highs in receptions (87), receiving yards (967), and rushing yards (345). Only Wes Welker finished with more yards than Harvin’s 616 after the catch.
37. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks - Was Lynch’s career-year merely a contract push or an epiphany for a player who recommitted after falling out of playing shape in 2010? Even first-round talents can’t get away with minimal effort at this level. The good news is three-fold: Lynch is still in his mid-20s, a prime candidate for the franchise tag, and -- with the exception of Adrian Peterson -- no back ran harder in 2011. The bad news is that Lynch’s fantasy value was inflated by a high touchdown total not likely to be repeated.
36. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (44, NR, 44) - It seems counterintuitive, but Bowe is ranked higher this year than he was after last year’s career-season of 15 TDs. Whereas Bowe feasted on the league’s friendliest pass defense schedule in 2010, he was often the best player on the field against stiffer competition in 2011. The 27-year-old could find greener pastures this offseason if the Chiefs eschew the franchise tag.
35. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys - Citing Murray’s vision, “dimension of power,” and finishing ability, owner/GM Jerry Jones confirmed that the 24-year-old will remain Dallas’ primary early-down back in 2012. Murray’s immense fantasy potential in a high-powered offense is somewhat offset by a checkered injury history and the presence of Felix Jones as a potential receptions vulture.
34. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (15, 36, 39) - Boasting three superstar-level talents among their offensive skill-position players, the Panthers did themselves no favors in limiting one of them to the supporting cast. Only LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew earned a higher running grade from Pro Football Focus, and Stewart forced 20 missed tackles on 47 catches (more than any other back on receptions) compared to DeAngelo Williams’ three on 16 catches. Cam Newton won’t hog 14 TDs again in 2012, but the threat of the run will continue to open wide lanes for Stewart to flirt with 5.5 - 6.0 YPC.
33. Darren Sproles, Saints - Thanks to league-highs among RBs in receptions (86), receiving yards (710), and receiving scores (7), Sproles finished 10th in standard-scoring fantasy points and 5th in PPR formats in his New Orleans debut. Drew Brees’ offense now runs at peak efficiency when exploiting mismatches created by the uncoverable Sproles and Jimmy Graham. With Marques Colston due to hit free agency, Sproles’ role could even be expanded in 2012.
32. Victor Cruz, Giants - Hakeem Nicks is the superior talent, but Cruz’s knack for finding open spaces and creating after the catch is legit. The breakout star finished the 2011 with more yards per route run (3.08) than any other receiver in the league.
31. Tony Romo, Cowboys (26, 29, 29) - Romo produced his highest career passer rating and second-highest touchdown total despite two painful fractured ribs that hindered his ability to throw downfield for over a month. Among all QBs in NFL history, Romo sits second in passer rating and fifth in yards per attempt (behind only Aaron Rodgers among active players in both categories in addition to Passing TD %). I’m buying at every opportunity this offseason.
Keepers 1-30 coming Thursday.