15. Ryan Mathews, Chargers (36) - Despite missing two games and sharing playing time with Mike Tolbert, Mathews finished as the No. 7 fantasy back in his second season. Although fumbling and minor injuries remain a slight concern, Mathews forced 30 missed tackles, averaged a stout 3.2 yards after contact, and topped 5.1 YPC in over half of his games. Tolbert is expected to hit the open market as a free agent, leaving Mathews as the top candidate to join the ranks of the NFL’s elite fantasy backs.
14. Chris Johnson, Titans (3, 1, 5) - As a long-time Johnson devotee, I had more than one fantasy team derailed by 2011’s most disappointing NFL player. I’m willing to overlook Johnson’s sabotaging effects due to several factors: The Titans boast an underrated collection of young playmaking offensive talents; coach Mike Munchak and GM Ruston Webster have resolved to fix the interior of the offensive line with the intention of boosting the ground attack; Johnson will have the entire offseason and training camp to prepare for a comeback season at age 26.
13. Jimmy Graham, Saints - One of the rare offseason “hype” players to actually exceed expectations, Graham broke Kellen Winslow Sr.’s tight-end yardage record only to see Rob Gronkowski sail by minutes later. Not bad for a first-time starter just three years into his football career. The prototypical athletic mismatch will have NFL think-tanks scratching their heads for a faster linebacker or bigger safety who can hang with the new breed of freakish tight ends.
12. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (20, 15, 11) - Only 19 receivers since the 1970 merger have more than two seasons of 10+ touchdowns. Fitzgerald is tops among active receivers with four such seasons. A top-five fantasy receiver in four of the past five seasons, Fitz somehow managed to finish fourth with 1,411 yards despite the worst QB situation of any top-20 receiver. If Peyton Manning finds a way to the desert, records will be shattered.
11. Matthew Stafford, Lions - Stafford just turned 24 this week after authoring the best age-23 season since Dan Marino’s magical 1984. “He’s got a Hall of Fame trajectory if he can stay healthy,” opines ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer. The NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year ranked third in the NFL in both passing yards (5,038) and TDs (41) while playing through a high-ankle sprain and fractured index finger on his throwing hand. As long as the Lions lock up Calvin Johnson, Stafford should be good for top-five production on an annual basis.
10. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - How dominant was Gronkowski’s record-breaking season? His 240 fantasy points were 26 more than the second-highest wide receiver. Not just a red-zone threat, Gronk’s 641 yards after the catch is over 100 more than any other tight end since Pro Football Focus began tracking four years ago. Only five tight ends in NFL history have managed two seasons of double-digit touchdowns. Gronkowski reached that rare air by age 22. For fantasy purposes, he’s essentially a rocked-up WR1 going forward.
9. Matt Forte, Bears (13, 17, 3) - Before the late-season knee sprain, Forte was battling Fred Jackson for most productive back in the NFL. Forte racked up 1,487 scrimmage yards in 12 games while boasting a career-best per-carry average of 4.91. The best non-Sproles receiving back in the league is only held back by a lack of red-zone success.
8. Drew Brees, Saints (16, 13, 20) - In addition to breaking Dan Marino’s single-season passing record, Brees also set new marks for completions (468) and completion percentage (71.2) with Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham entering the starting lineup. As a topper, Brees averaged an eye-popping 462 yards and 3.5 TDs in a pair of playoff games. He leads the NFL’s most unstoppable offense into the 2012 season.
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (17, 3, 2) - Much like Ray Rice, there’s a workload alert attached to Jones-Drew’s 2011 season. MJD led the league in rushing attempts with 343, adding another 43 receptions for easily the highest workload of his six-year career. The good news is Jones-Drew shook off knee surgery to lead the NFL not only in rushing yards (1,606), but also in yards after contact (952). One more 2012 concern is that Jones-Drew will struggle to find the end zone with Blaine Gabbert holding the offense hostage.
6. Ray Rice, Ravens (4, 6) - Workload alert! Fantasy’s No. 1 back also topped the charts in touches, finishing second in receptions and third in carries while piling on 47 more touches in the playoffs. Rice has talent, youth, and top-notch conditioning on his side, but the track record for backs coming off 400-touch seasons is cause for pause.
5. LeSean McCoy, Eagles (7) - If Philly had been eliminated by Week 17, Shady likely would have played the finale and finished as fantasy’s top back after leading the league with 20 TDs. That total will come down in 2012, but McCoy still finished fourth in rushing yards while adding 48 receptions. He’s essentially a slump-proof fantasy back entering his age-24 season in a highly explosive offense.
4. Cam Newton, Panthers - The sky is the limit for the owner of the best rookie season in NFL history. In one season, with limited preparation due to the lockout, Newton produced the only combined 4,000-yard passing, 500-yard rushing campaign the league has witnessed. Along the way, he broke Steve Grogan’s long-held record for rushing touchdowns while producing 35 total scores. Hold on tightly and enjoy the ride.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (8, 11, 31) - The landslide MVP winner is coming off a season that ranks with Tom Brady’s 2007, Peyton Manning’s 2004, Kurt Warner’s 1999, and Dan Marino’s 1984 as the most unstoppable of the modern era. For added perspective on Rodgers’ fast-break attack in Green Bay, his completion percentage jumps to a mind-blowing 80.5 percent once drops, QB hits, batted balls, throw-aways, and spikes are removed. With a loaded offensive core, Rodgers will be tough to dethrone atop the NFL over the next few seasons.
2. Calvin Johnson, Lions (10, 16, 12) - It’s the Randy Moss effect all over again. Johnson’s vertical and red-zone prowess will continue to grant historical seasons for his quarterback while opening space for the other Detroit weapons to make plays. Despite an Achilles flare-up, Megatron closed out the season with three 200-yard performances in his final four games. On the heels of that preposterous four-game run of 9/193/1.5, Johnson posted the most yards by any receiver since 2003. He’s the single most dominant skill-position player in the NFL.
1. Arian Foster, Texans (4) - Of the 12 playoff teams, only two (Steelers, Ravens) possessed a leading rusher acquired through the first two rounds of the draft. Even with the maximum restricted free agent tender lowered to first-round level, Foster is highly unlikely to be stolen away from Houston. Franchises simply don’t place that much value in running backs, especially one whose talents are ideally suited to a zone-blocking scheme run by only a handful of NFL teams. Foster’s playoff average of 168 yards against two top-seven defenses bodes well for his chances of picking up where he left off in 2012. He’s led all back in fantasy points per game for consecutive seasons.
In Part I of the Top-50 keepers, we covered the changing nature of NFL offenses, the dynamics of keeper leagues, the near misses, the fallers, and players 31-50. Let's move on to the top 30 keepers.
Rank from the previous two seasons (2010, 2009) in parentheses.
30. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (25, 21, 15) - The on-field antics and off-field baggage leave Marshall as a less desirable commodity than upside receivers such as Dez Bryant and Dwayne Bowe in pure Dynasty leagues, but he still has the edge in keeper formats. Marshall’s 609 targets over the past four seasons are more than any other player in the AFC. If he stops dropping touchdowns, Marshall could regain WR1 status under Matt Flynn or Peyton Manning.
29. Eli Manning, Giants - The Super Bowl MVP posted a 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio as the playoff’s premier QB, finally staking his claim as one of the top-five signal-callers in the league. How much has the NFL morphed into a pass-heavy operation? According to CBSSports.com’s stats, the average top-12 QB in 2011 scored more fantasy points (365) than the No. 1 fantasy QB in 2010 (Tom Brady, 359) and 2008 (Drew Brees, 362). With a pair of studs in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, Eli should keep rolling with the top-six fantasy finishes.
28. Mike Wallace, Steelers (34) - Supremely talented, Wallace would be ranked 10-15 spots higher had his per-game average not dropped from 100 yards in the first half of the season to 46.6 yards in the second half following the emergence of Antonio Brown. The 25-year-old still finished 8th in receiver fantasy points after a top-five season in 2010. I’m buying low this offseason; he’s a lock for 1,200 yards and 10 TDs with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger.
27. Wes Welker, Patriots - Similar to Wallace, Welker averaged an unsustainable 8.25/120/0.75 line in the first eight games compared to 6.8/71/0.36 the rest of the way -- including 7-of-11 games in which he failed to crack 60 yards. On a side note, Welker has the three highest yards-after-catch totals in the NFL over the last four years. He’ll be back in New England via the franchise tag or a long-term deal.
26. Roddy White, Falcons (14, 24, 23) - Having turned 30 in November while splitting per-game fantasy production with Julio Jones, White is entering the decline phase of his career. Similar talents Reggie Wayne and Chad Ochocinco offer two different career paths. Wayne’s seasonal numbers dropped slightly from 88/1,271/9 at ages 26-29 to 92/1,181/6.5 at ages 30-33. Ochocinco’s plummeted from 93/1,379/8 at ages 26-29 to 52/674/5 at ages 30-33. White does have one advantage: No NFL player has seen more than his 636 targets over the past four years, and his 175 targets in 2011 is the highest total in the last three years.
25. Darren McFadden, Raiders (11, NR, 48) - McFadden was the No. 1 fantasy back through six weeks last season. So why is he ranked just 25th among keepers? The late-season foot sprain isn’t as much of a red flag as the 19 missed games over four seasons in the NFL. Health isn’t the only concern, however. McFadden struggled under Tom Cable’s zone-blocking scheme, only to break out once Hue Jackson molded the offense to fit McFadden’s considerable talents. New coordinator Greg Knapp is expected to bring back a zone-blocking attack, perhaps leaving McFadden as a trade chip. If the Raiders franchise Michael Bush, McFadden’s ranking slips to the 30s.
24. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (5, 10) - Charles will be 11 months removed from reconstructive knee surgery by the start of the season. For a back so reliant on speed and sharp cuts, it’s reasonable to suspect that Charles won’t regain pre-injury form until mid-season or later. At peak health, he’s an elite back who won’t have Thomas Jones around to steal carries. According to Pro Football Reference, Charles is the only back in NFL history with a career per-carry average of 6.0+ on at least 150 carries.
23. Michael Vick, Eagles (1) - Outside of interception rate, Vick’s passing numbers from 2011 are almost identical to his 2010 stats. The problem for fantasy owners was that his rushing touchdowns dropped from nine to one, thanks to randomness and the emergence of LeSean McCoy as a goal-line horse. That total figures to meet in the middle in 2012, leaving Vick as a top-five fantasy QB -- when he’s in the lineup.
22. Greg Jennings, Packers (28, 30, 25) - Jordy Nelson’s 216-143 fantasy-points edge over Jennings is misleading. Jennings outscored Nelson in the season’s first 12 games before a knee injury forced him to miss the first three games of his NFL career. Although his per-game average dropped from 96.7 the first seven weeks to 44.6 the rest of the way, Jennings has been a consistent WR1 over the past five years.
21. Hakeem Nicks, Giants (21) - Victor Cruz may have outscored Nicks by roughly four fantasy points per game after earning a starting role in Week 3, but Nicks’ talent edge shone through with 148 more receiving yards than any other receiver in the postseason. The only factor keeping Nicks out of the top-20 is a predisposition toward nagging injuries.
20. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (2, 2, 1) - There's no denying the risk associated with Peterson after a knee shredded by ACL, MCL, and meniscus damage. His commitment to excellence, though, is unquestioned, and Wes Welker’s career-year two seasons removed from a similar injury bodes well for Peterson’s chances of regaining pre-injury form by 2013. Owners will have to suffer through a down season for the chance to roll with Peterson once he regains elite status.
19. Tom Brady, Patriots (32, 34, 36) - His last four healthy seasons have produced two first-place fantasy finishes, a third place, and a sixth place. Age is becoming an issue as he turns 35 in August, but Brady should enter the 2012 season with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, and a newly acquired vertical threat -- his best collection of receiving talent since the record-setting 2007 season.
18. A.J. Green, Bengals -“I love A.J. Green. He looks like a big Marvin Harrison to me,” former Colts coach Tony Dungy said recently. “He’s got the same wiry frame, he’s got the same deceptive speed, and he’s got all the hand-eye coordination and the skill Marvin had. But he’s big.” Brandon Marshall wanted no part of Green comparisons at the Pro Bowl, insisting the Bengals budding star is “in a league of his own. He’s totally different.”
17. Julio Jones, Falcons - How explosive was Jones as a rookie? After leading all receivers in points during the fantasy playoffs, Jones finished tied with Roddy White for 9th place at 11.1 per game on the season. In fact, if you extrapolate Jones’ 11 full games to 16, he would have ranked fifth among all receivers and tight ends in fantasy points. His career arc is going to resemble Terrell Owens -- without the melodrama.
16. Andre Johnson, Texans (9, 7, 9) - Johnson is leaking Dynasty-league value entering his age-31 season while coming off a pair of serious hamstring injuries. In keeper formats, though, Johnson remains a safe bet for WR1 production over the next 2-3 years after shaking off a near season-long rustiness to average 100 yards with raw rookie T.J. Yates at QB in his first two playoff games.
15. Ryan Mathews, Chargers (36) - Despite missing two games and sharing playing time with Mike Tolbert, Mathews finished as the No. 7 fantasy back in his second season. Although fumbling and minor injuries remain a slight concern, Mathews forced 30 missed tackles, averaged a stout 3.2 yards after contact, and topped 5.1 YPC in over half of his games. Tolbert is expected to hit the open market as a free agent, leaving Mathews as the top candidate to join the ranks of the NFL’s elite fantasy backs.
14. Chris Johnson, Titans (3, 1, 5) - As a long-time Johnson devotee, I had more than one fantasy team derailed by 2011’s most disappointing NFL player. I’m willing to overlook Johnson’s sabotaging effects due to several factors: The Titans boast an underrated collection of young playmaking offensive talents; coach Mike Munchak and GM Ruston Webster have resolved to fix the interior of the offensive line with the intention of boosting the ground attack; Johnson will have the entire offseason and training camp to prepare for a comeback season at age 26.
13. Jimmy Graham, Saints - One of the rare offseason “hype” players to actually exceed expectations, Graham broke Kellen Winslow Sr.’s tight-end yardage record only to see Rob Gronkowski sail by minutes later. Not bad for a first-time starter just three years into his football career. The prototypical athletic mismatch will have NFL think-tanks scratching their heads for a faster linebacker or bigger safety who can hang with the new breed of freakish tight ends.
12. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (20, 15, 11) - Only 19 receivers since the 1970 merger have more than two seasons of 10+ touchdowns. Fitzgerald is tops among active receivers with four such seasons. A top-five fantasy receiver in four of the past five seasons, Fitz somehow managed to finish fourth with 1,411 yards despite the worst QB situation of any top-20 receiver. If Peyton Manning finds a way to the desert, records will be shattered.
11. Matthew Stafford, Lions - Stafford just turned 24 this week after authoring the best age-23 season since Dan Marino’s magical 1984. “He’s got a Hall of Fame trajectory if he can stay healthy,” opines ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer. The NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year ranked third in the NFL in both passing yards (5,038) and TDs (41) while playing through a high-ankle sprain and fractured index finger on his throwing hand. As long as the Lions lock up Calvin Johnson, Stafford should be good for top-five production on an annual basis.
10. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - How dominant was Gronkowski’s record-breaking season? His 240 fantasy points were 26 more than the second-highest wide receiver. Not just a red-zone threat, Gronk’s 641 yards after the catch is over 100 more than any other tight end since Pro Football Focus began tracking four years ago. Only five tight ends in NFL history have managed two seasons of double-digit touchdowns. Gronkowski reached that rare air by age 22. For fantasy purposes, he’s essentially a rocked-up WR1 going forward.
9. Matt Forte, Bears (13, 17, 3) - Before the late-season knee sprain, Forte was battling Fred Jackson for most productive back in the NFL. Forte racked up 1,487 scrimmage yards in 12 games while boasting a career-best per-carry average of 4.91. The best non-Sproles receiving back in the league is only held back by a lack of red-zone success.
8. Drew Brees, Saints (16, 13, 20) - In addition to breaking Dan Marino’s single-season passing record, Brees also set new marks for completions (468) and completion percentage (71.2) with Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham entering the starting lineup. As a topper, Brees averaged an eye-popping 462 yards and 3.5 TDs in a pair of playoff games. He leads the NFL’s most unstoppable offense into the 2012 season.
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (17, 3, 2) - Much like Ray Rice, there’s a workload alert attached to Jones-Drew’s 2011 season. MJD led the league in rushing attempts with 343, adding another 43 receptions for easily the highest workload of his six-year career. The good news is Jones-Drew shook off knee surgery to lead the NFL not only in rushing yards (1,606), but also in yards after contact (952). One more 2012 concern is that Jones-Drew will struggle to find the end zone with Blaine Gabbert holding the offense hostage.
6. Ray Rice, Ravens (4, 6) - Workload alert! Fantasy’s No. 1 back also topped the charts in touches, finishing second in receptions and third in carries while piling on 47 more touches in the playoffs. Rice has talent, youth, and top-notch conditioning on his side, but the track record for backs coming off 400-touch seasons is cause for pause.
5. LeSean McCoy, Eagles (7) - If Philly had been eliminated by Week 17, Shady likely would have played the finale and finished as fantasy’s top back after leading the league with 20 TDs. That total will come down in 2012, but McCoy still finished fourth in rushing yards while adding 48 receptions. He’s essentially a slump-proof fantasy back entering his age-24 season in a highly explosive offense.
4. Cam Newton, Panthers - The sky is the limit for the owner of the best rookie season in NFL history. In one season, with limited preparation due to the lockout, Newton produced the only combined 4,000-yard passing, 500-yard rushing campaign the league has witnessed. Along the way, he broke Steve Grogan’s long-held record for rushing touchdowns while producing 35 total scores. Hold on tightly and enjoy the ride.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (8, 11, 31) - The landslide MVP winner is coming off a season that ranks with Tom Brady’s 2007, Peyton Manning’s 2004, Kurt Warner’s 1999, and Dan Marino’s 1984 as the most unstoppable of the modern era. For added perspective on Rodgers’ fast-break attack in Green Bay, his completion percentage jumps to a mind-blowing 80.5 percent once drops, QB hits, batted balls, throw-aways, and spikes are removed. With a loaded offensive core, Rodgers will be tough to dethrone atop the NFL over the next few seasons.
2. Calvin Johnson, Lions (10, 16, 12) - It’s the Randy Moss effect all over again. Johnson’s vertical and red-zone prowess will continue to grant historical seasons for his quarterback while opening space for the other Detroit weapons to make plays. Despite an Achilles flare-up, Megatron closed out the season with three 200-yard performances in his final four games. On the heels of that preposterous four-game run of 9/193/1.5, Johnson posted the most yards by any receiver since 2003. He’s the single most dominant skill-position player in the NFL.
1. Arian Foster, Texans (4) - Of the 12 playoff teams, only two (Steelers, Ravens) possessed a leading rusher acquired through the first two rounds of the draft. Even with the maximum restricted free agent tender lowered to first-round level, Foster is highly unlikely to be stolen away from Houston. Franchises simply don’t place that much value in running backs, especially one whose talents are ideally suited to a zone-blocking scheme run by only a handful of NFL teams. Foster’s playoff average of 168 yards against two top-seven defenses bodes well for his chances of picking up where he left off in 2012. He’s led all back in fantasy points per game for consecutive seasons.