Bengals RB Bernard Scott
I’ll admit it – I liked Scott going into both the 2010 and 2011 seasons. I didn’t think Cincinnati could continue to run an ineffective Cedric Benson into the ground, all the while letting a potential playmaker like Scott rot on the bench. I was wrong. Combining the two seasons, Benson racked up 602 carries to Scott’s 179 and was even targeted 25 more times (58-to-33). It has become clear that Bengals’ management views Scott as strictly a complimentary back, but OC Jay Gruden has suggested that he’ll see a larger role going forward. That said, not only could that be coachspeak, we’ve also heard rumors that the team hopes to get newly-signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis involved more heavily on passing downs. That doesn’t bode well for Scott, who still seems to be in line for only 10 or so touches per game. Still, he’ll remain on sleeper lists considering Green-Ellis’ underwhelming skills.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
The Bengals might not view Scott as a workhorse, but it’d be a little bit of a surprise if they take a running back early after talking up Scott and signing Green-Ellis. Even if they do, Green-Ellis isn’t very good and all rookie running backs need to be on injury watch after what happened last season. Scott could be forced into regular playing time in 2012 and, although he won’t be worth a draft pick in most formats, he belongs on your radar.
Bengals WR Armon Binns
Binns is gaining a lot of steam recently as a potential replacement for Jerome Simpson as the Bengals’ No. 2 wide receiver. A standout at the University of Cincinnati, Binns was an undrafted free agent signing by the Jaguars following the 2011 draft. He was later waived and eventually signed to the Bengals’ practice squad. The Bengals’ coaches were impressed with his contributions on the practice field, and he’s a favorite to be in the mix for snaps in 2012. Interestingly, much like Simpson, he projects as a field-stretcher despite not having 4.4 speed thanks to his ability to go up and get the ball.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
Bengals’ coaches might like Binns, but that doesn’t mean they’re prepared to turn an undrafted free agent with zero experience into a starter on a playoff team. First of all, Binns will get competition from players currently on the roster, including slot men Jordan Shipley and Andrew Hawkins, as well as, the team’s sixth-round pick in 2011, Ryan Whalen. Additionally, the Bengals are very likely to grab a wideout with one of their three picks in the first two rounds of the draft. Binns best case scenario for Week 1 is the No. 4 job.
Colts WR Donnie Avery
A second-round pick by the Rams back in 2008, Donnie Avery has disappointed thanks to a long injury resume. After catching exactly 100 passes over his first two seasons, Avery missed all of 2010 and managed just three receptions on 11 targets in limited action with the Titans in 2011. Still, if the 27-year-old can recapture anything close to the 4.2 40-yard dash speed he had a few years ago, he could be in for a resurgence. Currently, Avery projects as the Colts’ flanker in three-wide sets, but would likely yield to Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne when only two wideouts are on the field. Still, Collie is a possession receiver with health issues of his own and Wayne will turn 33-years-old during the season. If Avery had a chance at turning his career around, this is a prime – and perhaps his last – opportunity.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
Okay, I know I just talked him up, but that doesn’t mean I think it will all work out as planned. First off, the Colts have to target a wide receiver, or at least a pass-catcher, early on the in draft. Not only are Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Blair White gone, tight ends Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are also out. Avery will need to hope the Colts target a pass-catching tight end prospect like Coby Fleener, which would mean less competition on the outside. Additionally, the Indianapolis offense has an excellent chance of being anemic in Year 1 of the Andrew Luck (fine, or Robert Griffin III) era, which means fewer opportunities for touchdowns.
Packers RB Alex Green
Ryan Grant remains an unsigned free agent, which has opened up an opportunity for Alex Green, the team’s third-round draft pick in 2011, to take over as the No. 2 tailback behind James Starks. Green is a speedy, downhill runner who ran a 4.45 40-yard dash despite standing at 6’0, 225 pounds. Green’s main roadblock to playing time may be himself after he tore his ACL after just seven snaps last season.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
Despite relying on the pass more than all but just one team in 2011, the Packers won’t feel comfortable with just Green and Brandon Saine as insurance for James Starks. They’re extremely likely to draft a tailback in the first round or two and, if they miss out on a top back, would sign one of a long list of veteran free agents. Even if Packers’ management decided to defy logic and stick with what they have, note that 82-percent of Green Bay’s touchdowns in 2011 were of the passing variety, which ranked second in the NFL to only Dallas. Green could work his way into a complimentary role, but he’s not in line for the large workload he’d see if today was Week 1.
Patriots RB Shane Vereen
Although Stevan Ridley emerged as the more productive of the two rookie backs in 2011, it was Vereen who New England picked first in the draft. Vereen, who is the smaller of the two and projects as more of a change-of-pace back, went in round two, while Ridley, an early-down, power back with less to offer in the receiving game, went one round later. Both backs are expected to take on bigger roles in 2012, but Danny Woodhead and a potential free agent or rookie will be in the mix, as well. Both Vereen and Ridley could break out this season, but Ridley is certainly the more well-known of the two right now.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
The Patriots could very easily throw a curve ball and trade for Matt Forte or draft a tailback like Chris Polk in the second round, but I don’t think they’ll be going out of their way to replace BenJarvus Green-Ellis. They spent a pair of early-round picks on tailbacks a year ago, have Danny Woodhead to work upwards of half the snaps on passing downs, and even have Aaron Hernandez (eight carries in the playoffs) available to handle some snaps out of the backfield. A mid-to-late round draft pick could be added to the mix, but I expect the two sophomore backs to get a chance to emerge.
Other “sleepers” to watch: Ravens RB Anthony Allen, Dolphins WR Clyde Gates, Jets WR Chaz Schilens, Jets RB Bilal Powell, Giants RB Da’Rel Scott, Saints WR Adrian Arrington, Bills WR Donald Jones, Ravens WR Tandon Doss, Dolphins TE Charles Clay, Cowboys WR Andre Holmes, Eagles RB Dion Lewis, Steelers RB Baron Batch
When the first round of the 2012 NFL draft kicks off in 10 days, there will be quite a few current players sitting on the edge of their seat. Of course there are those players who will get bumped down to the roster bubble, but there are also players currently sitting in a position that would bring them a healthy dose of snaps if the 2012 season began this weekend. Players in such a position are what we might call “fantasy relevant”. Those considered to have upside or who were recently signed or promoted into a bigger role inevitably end up on sleeper lists.
Today, I’ll take a look at ten of these currently-relevant sleepers on the offensive side of the ball and let you know if they’ll still be on your fantasy radar when the draft concludes on April 28.
Browns RB Montario Hardesty
Peyton Hillis signing with Kansas City was good news for Hardesty, as it promoted him to No. 1 tailback on the Browns’ depth chart. How long he’ll stay there is another question. Cleveland’s second-round pick back in 2010 struggled to a 3.0 yards-per-carry mark on 88 carries this past season, but it’s worth noting that he was unlikely to be running at 100-percent after a torn ACL cost him the entire 2010 season. His only current competition for snaps is Brandon Jackson, who missed the entire 2011 season with a toe injury, and Chris Ogbonnaya.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
The Browns are extremely likely to take a tailback with one of their first three picks, which would put Hardesty, at least, in a committee. If Cleveland takes Trent Richardson with pick 1.4, you can forget about seeing Hardesty more than a dozen snaps per game. Hardesty still has a ton of potential, but he won’t be reprising the bellcow role Hillis had the past few seasons.
Panthers WR Brandon LaFell
A third-round pick back in 2010, LaFell has yet to emerge as a force across the field from Steve Smith that Carolina was hoping for. Last season, LaFell was relegated to second-string behind Smith and underwhelming Legedu Naanee. Panthers’ management does seem to still like LaFell’s potential, which means his fantasy football upside hasn’t dried up quite yet. Still, he’ll have his hands full with David Gettis and any additions the team makes in the draft.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
There’s still some promise here, but it will be more ugly than pretty. Carolina is going to want to do everything they can to get Cam Newton another toy and that toy will be an early-to-middle round wide receiver. LaFell hasn’t stood out enough to convince us he can beat out a day-two pick, so the odds favor him entering a rotation with both Gettis and, at least, one rookie. Can he emerge in year three and become an every-down player? It’s possible, but he’s not worth picking in standard-sized leagues.
Raiders RB Mike Goodson
Goodson immediately hit most people’s sleeper list as soon as Oakland snagged him from Carolina for lineman Bruce Campbell. He immediately steps into the No. 2 job behind the fragile Darren McFadden – a role that allowed incumbent Michael Bush to rack up 256 carries in 2011. Goodson’s only current competition for snaps behind a back who has eclipsed 113 carries only once in his career is the inexperienced Taiwan Jones. We’ve already seen Goodson successfully handle an every-down role (three games in 2010) and a full-time passing down role (the entire 2010 season), but all eyes will on the hamstring that cost him most of the 2011 season.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
I might not feel as strongly if Oakland had a pick before the fourth round, but they don’t, which means they aren’t going to be adding serious competition for Goodson on draft day. They could still bring a veteran free agent like Joseph Addai or Ryan Grant into camp, which would chip away at Goodson’s upside should McFadden get injured, but, for now, he’s still looking like one of this upcoming season’s top handcuffs.
Broncos WR Andre Caldwell
When Peyton Manning was with the Colts, his top-four pass catchers were always fantasy relevant: the starting X, Y, and Z receivers and, of course, the top tight end. Right now, Caldwell sits as Denver’s No. 3 wideout, and most Broncos’ analysts feel he or Brandon Stokley would work the slot in between Demaryius Thomas and the team’s 2011 slot man Eric Decker if the season started today. That information in itself is enough to put Caldwell on your radar. However, although the Manning-led Colts went heavy with three-wide receiver sets, it’s up for debate if Denver will do the same after they signed both Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme at tight end. If the coaches try to keep both on the field, it would mean more snaps for Tamme in the slot, and a lesser workload for Caldwell.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
The Broncos will certainly draft a wide receiver or two and just signed Manning’s good buddy Stokley, but unless they grab an impact player at the position, Caldwell has to remain on your radar. If he’s the clear-cut No. 3 receiver, draft him late and stash. If not, just keep an eye on his targets.
Giants WR Jerrel Jernigan
With Mario Manningham off to San Francisco, Jernigan is the favorite to land the No. 3 job in New York. This is a role that allowed Manningham to accrue 52 receptions and seven touchdowns on 94 targets in 16 games a season ago. Jernigan is raw, having seen only two targets in his rookie season, but he was a third-round pick just one year ago. That being the case, he should have an edge for the job over Ramses Barden and Domenik Hixon.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
There is an outside chance the Giants could pounce on a wide receiver with pick No. 32, but it’s unlikely. Management has already suggested that they’d like to replace Manningham in-house and Jernigan is a top the list. The speedster figures to see quite a bit of work in the slot, which would push Victor Cruz out wide in three-wide receiver sets. Note that 77 of Victor Cruz’s 103 receptions in 2011 came while lined up in the slot, making Jernigan a major sleeper this year.
Bengals RB Bernard Scott
I’ll admit it – I liked Scott going into both the 2010 and 2011 seasons. I didn’t think Cincinnati could continue to run an ineffective Cedric Benson into the ground, all the while letting a potential playmaker like Scott rot on the bench. I was wrong. Combining the two seasons, Benson racked up 602 carries to Scott’s 179 and was even targeted 25 more times (58-to-33). It has become clear that Bengals’ management views Scott as strictly a complimentary back, but OC Jay Gruden has suggested that he’ll see a larger role going forward. That said, not only could that be coachspeak, we’ve also heard rumors that the team hopes to get newly-signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis involved more heavily on passing downs. That doesn’t bode well for Scott, who still seems to be in line for only 10 or so touches per game. Still, he’ll remain on sleeper lists considering Green-Ellis’ underwhelming skills.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
The Bengals might not view Scott as a workhorse, but it’d be a little bit of a surprise if they take a running back early after talking up Scott and signing Green-Ellis. Even if they do, Green-Ellis isn’t very good and all rookie running backs need to be on injury watch after what happened last season. Scott could be forced into regular playing time in 2012 and, although he won’t be worth a draft pick in most formats, he belongs on your radar.
Bengals WR Armon Binns
Binns is gaining a lot of steam recently as a potential replacement for Jerome Simpson as the Bengals’ No. 2 wide receiver. A standout at the University of Cincinnati, Binns was an undrafted free agent signing by the Jaguars following the 2011 draft. He was later waived and eventually signed to the Bengals’ practice squad. The Bengals’ coaches were impressed with his contributions on the practice field, and he’s a favorite to be in the mix for snaps in 2012. Interestingly, much like Simpson, he projects as a field-stretcher despite not having 4.4 speed thanks to his ability to go up and get the ball.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
Bengals’ coaches might like Binns, but that doesn’t mean they’re prepared to turn an undrafted free agent with zero experience into a starter on a playoff team. First of all, Binns will get competition from players currently on the roster, including slot men Jordan Shipley and Andrew Hawkins, as well as, the team’s sixth-round pick in 2011, Ryan Whalen. Additionally, the Bengals are very likely to grab a wideout with one of their three picks in the first two rounds of the draft. Binns best case scenario for Week 1 is the No. 4 job.
Colts WR Donnie Avery
A second-round pick by the Rams back in 2008, Donnie Avery has disappointed thanks to a long injury resume. After catching exactly 100 passes over his first two seasons, Avery missed all of 2010 and managed just three receptions on 11 targets in limited action with the Titans in 2011. Still, if the 27-year-old can recapture anything close to the 4.2 40-yard dash speed he had a few years ago, he could be in for a resurgence. Currently, Avery projects as the Colts’ flanker in three-wide sets, but would likely yield to Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne when only two wideouts are on the field. Still, Collie is a possession receiver with health issues of his own and Wayne will turn 33-years-old during the season. If Avery had a chance at turning his career around, this is a prime – and perhaps his last – opportunity.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
Okay, I know I just talked him up, but that doesn’t mean I think it will all work out as planned. First off, the Colts have to target a wide receiver, or at least a pass-catcher, early on the in draft. Not only are Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Blair White gone, tight ends Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme are also out. Avery will need to hope the Colts target a pass-catching tight end prospect like Coby Fleener, which would mean less competition on the outside. Additionally, the Indianapolis offense has an excellent chance of being anemic in Year 1 of the Andrew Luck (fine, or Robert Griffin III) era, which means fewer opportunities for touchdowns.
Packers RB Alex Green
Ryan Grant remains an unsigned free agent, which has opened up an opportunity for Alex Green, the team’s third-round draft pick in 2011, to take over as the No. 2 tailback behind James Starks. Green is a speedy, downhill runner who ran a 4.45 40-yard dash despite standing at 6’0, 225 pounds. Green’s main roadblock to playing time may be himself after he tore his ACL after just seven snaps last season.
Post-draft outlook: Ugly
Despite relying on the pass more than all but just one team in 2011, the Packers won’t feel comfortable with just Green and Brandon Saine as insurance for James Starks. They’re extremely likely to draft a tailback in the first round or two and, if they miss out on a top back, would sign one of a long list of veteran free agents. Even if Packers’ management decided to defy logic and stick with what they have, note that 82-percent of Green Bay’s touchdowns in 2011 were of the passing variety, which ranked second in the NFL to only Dallas. Green could work his way into a complimentary role, but he’s not in line for the large workload he’d see if today was Week 1.
Patriots RB Shane Vereen
Although Stevan Ridley emerged as the more productive of the two rookie backs in 2011, it was Vereen who New England picked first in the draft. Vereen, who is the smaller of the two and projects as more of a change-of-pace back, went in round two, while Ridley, an early-down, power back with less to offer in the receiving game, went one round later. Both backs are expected to take on bigger roles in 2012, but Danny Woodhead and a potential free agent or rookie will be in the mix, as well. Both Vereen and Ridley could break out this season, but Ridley is certainly the more well-known of the two right now.
Post-draft outlook: Pretty
The Patriots could very easily throw a curve ball and trade for Matt Forte or draft a tailback like Chris Polk in the second round, but I don’t think they’ll be going out of their way to replace BenJarvus Green-Ellis. They spent a pair of early-round picks on tailbacks a year ago, have Danny Woodhead to work upwards of half the snaps on passing downs, and even have Aaron Hernandez (eight carries in the playoffs) available to handle some snaps out of the backfield. A mid-to-late round draft pick could be added to the mix, but I expect the two sophomore backs to get a chance to emerge.
Other “sleepers” to watch: Ravens RB Anthony Allen, Dolphins WR Clyde Gates, Jets WR Chaz Schilens, Jets RB Bilal Powell, Giants RB Da’Rel Scott, Saints WR Adrian Arrington, Bills WR Donald Jones, Ravens WR Tandon Doss, Dolphins TE Charles Clay, Cowboys WR Andre Holmes, Eagles RB Dion Lewis, Steelers RB Baron Batch