Opportunity meets upside

Sleepers.

We all have them – those players everybody likes, but that we love. When your draft is closing in, you sit down, come up with a personal cheat sheet, and wrap it up by highlighting/circling/making a secondary list of the guys you absolutely can’t miss on in the last couple of rounds.

Some of those guys pan out. Many don’t. On top of that, there is always a short list of breakout players no one saw coming. When we look back, it makes sense. But on draft day, we overlooked Victor Cruz. We didn’t see Miles Austin coming. Stevie Johnson was stuck in a poor offense. Jamaal Charles was stuck behind Larry Johnson. Arian Foster started the year on the practice squad. Fred Davis was rotting behind Chris Cooley. Kurt Warner. Ryan Grant. Danny Woodhead. Brandon Lloyd.

You get the point (and I didn’t even include rookies).

Today, I’ll be focusing on non-rookies like Foster, Austin, and Cruz who we know have plenty of talent, but are still buried on their respective team’s depth chart. These players aren’t guaranteed regular playing time in 2012, but there are a few reasons they could skyrocket to fantasy success. One reason is the reality that the players projected to play ahead of the player in question aren’t overly productive. Another is that the player’s team has a void at the position because of a trade, free agency, injury, or retirement. Both give these guys increased odds of a 2012 breakout.

Jets RB Bilal Powell

Shonn Greene really hasn’t lived up to expectations. His career 4.3 yards-per-carry is slightly above league average, but the Jets ground-and-pound offense needs more production from those 20 carries-per-game. Powell, a fourth-round pick in 2011, fits the profile as a power back and provides more upside than Greene or Joe McKnight. If the Jets don’t add a back in this weekend’s draft, Powell will likely open the 2012 season third on the depth chart. If Greene doesn’t step up his game, however, it won’t be long before Powell moves past him.

Draft Board – Powell is not worth drafting, except in the deepest of leagues. Keep him on your watch list and snatch him up as soon as the ‘changing of the guard’ rumors begin.

Cardinals TE Rob Housler

Stuck behind veterans Todd Heap and Jeff King during his rookie campaign, Housler didn’t quite reach 200 snaps and was targeted just 24 times. Although he was considered to be one of the top receiving—and certainly one of the fastest—tight ends in last year’s draft, he dropped six balls, while catching 12 for 133 yards. Still, Housler was a third-round pick, and was the third tight end off the board, after only highly-regarded Kyle Rudolph and Lance Kendricks (who had drop issues of his own). He will again be stuck behind Heap and King, but Heap struggled with injuries throughout the 2011 season and is 32 years old. King is used primarily as a blocker. Improved all-around play will put Housler in position to take over as an every-down player at some point this season.

Draft Board – Absolutely not draftable in normal-sized leagues, but keep an eye on the Cardinals’ snap totals. If Housler begins to steal reps from Heap, grab him before he explodes onto the scene with one of those 7-95-1 games.

Broncos RB Mario Fannin

Although Willis McGahee enjoyed a resurgence in 2011, he’ll be turning 31 this season and – like most backs – can’t be expected to hold up for an entire season like he did in 2011. Knowshon Moreno is in the picture, but could end up traded, cut, or demoted to third string behind Lance Ball. Denver management doesn’t seem to have much affection for Moreno, but Ball, while not an overly impressive back, is a capable No. 2.

Enter Fannin, who offers the most upside of the group. Despite going undrafted, the 5’11, 235-pound Fannin was arguably the best back in Broncos’ camp a season ago, but ended up on injured reserve with an ankle injury. He’ll bring his 4.37 40-yard-dash speed back to camp this year and will push for touches as the season progresses.

Draft Board – Don’t bother with him on draft day except in the deepest of leagues. Monitor the Broncos’ rushing situation throughout the year. If McGahee gets hurt or is struggling, use that last roster spot on Fannin.

Giants WR Jerrel Jernigan

I spoke about Jernigan last week, but he’s a no-brainer for this list. New York’s third-round pick one season ago is one of my favorite breakout candidates of 2012. With Mario Manningham gone via free agency, Jernigan, Domenik Hixon, and Ramses Barden are expected to compete for reps as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

Last year, I was high on Manningham, who I expected to step up and replace Steve Smith’s production. A Giants’ wide receiver did break out, but it was Cruz, not Manningham. One of the key reasons for this was the fact that Cruz replaced Smith as Eli Manning’s go-to receiver out of the slot. It may seem hard to believe, but 77 of Victor Cruz’s 103 receptions in 2011 came while lined up in the slot. Jernigan, assuming he does step up and beat out Hixon/Barden, is a better fit on the inside, which would push Cruz outside to Manningham’s old position. Jernigan won’t steal all of Cruz’s targets, but there are plenty to go around, especially with Manning not relying on the running back or tight end much.

Draft Board – In early mocks, Jernigan isn’t even getting drafted. Grab him in the last couple of rounds, just before your defense and kicker.

Sleepers.

We all have them – those players everybody likes, but that we love. When your draft is closing in, you sit down, come up with a personal cheat sheet, and wrap it up by highlighting/circling/making a secondary list of the guys you absolutely can’t miss on in the last couple of rounds.

Some of those guys pan out. Many don’t. On top of that, there is always a short list of breakout players no one saw coming. When we look back, it makes sense. But on draft day, we overlooked Victor Cruz. We didn’t see Miles Austin coming. Stevie Johnson was stuck in a poor offense. Jamaal Charles was stuck behind Larry Johnson. Arian Foster started the year on the practice squad. Fred Davis was rotting behind Chris Cooley. Kurt Warner. Ryan Grant. Danny Woodhead. Brandon Lloyd.

You get the point (and I didn’t even include rookies).

Today, I’ll be focusing on non-rookies like Foster, Austin, and Cruz who we know have plenty of talent, but are still buried on their respective team’s depth chart. These players aren’t guaranteed regular playing time in 2012, but there are a few reasons they could skyrocket to fantasy success. One reason is the reality that the players projected to play ahead of the player in question aren’t overly productive. Another is that the player’s team has a void at the position because of a trade, free agency, injury, or retirement. Both give these guys increased odds of a 2012 breakout.

Jets RB Bilal Powell

Shonn Greene really hasn’t lived up to expectations. His career 4.3 yards-per-carry is slightly above league average, but the Jets ground-and-pound offense needs more production from those 20 carries-per-game. Powell, a fourth-round pick in 2011, fits the profile as a power back and provides more upside than Greene or Joe McKnight. If the Jets don’t add a back in this weekend’s draft, Powell will likely open the 2012 season third on the depth chart. If Greene doesn’t step up his game, however, it won’t be long before Powell moves past him.

Draft Board – Powell is not worth drafting, except in the deepest of leagues. Keep him on your watch list and snatch him up as soon as the ‘changing of the guard’ rumors begin.

Cardinals TE Rob Housler

Stuck behind veterans Todd Heap and Jeff King during his rookie campaign, Housler didn’t quite reach 200 snaps and was targeted just 24 times. Although he was considered to be one of the top receiving—and certainly one of the fastest—tight ends in last year’s draft, he dropped six balls, while catching 12 for 133 yards. Still, Housler was a third-round pick, and was the third tight end off the board, after only highly-regarded Kyle Rudolph and Lance Kendricks (who had drop issues of his own). He will again be stuck behind Heap and King, but Heap struggled with injuries throughout the 2011 season and is 32 years old. King is used primarily as a blocker. Improved all-around play will put Housler in position to take over as an every-down player at some point this season.

Draft Board – Absolutely not draftable in normal-sized leagues, but keep an eye on the Cardinals’ snap totals. If Housler begins to steal reps from Heap, grab him before he explodes onto the scene with one of those 7-95-1 games.

Broncos RB Mario Fannin

Although Willis McGahee enjoyed a resurgence in 2011, he’ll be turning 31 this season and – like most backs – can’t be expected to hold up for an entire season like he did in 2011. Knowshon Moreno is in the picture, but could end up traded, cut, or demoted to third string behind Lance Ball. Denver management doesn’t seem to have much affection for Moreno, but Ball, while not an overly impressive back, is a capable No. 2.

Enter Fannin, who offers the most upside of the group. Despite going undrafted, the 5’11, 235-pound Fannin was arguably the best back in Broncos’ camp a season ago, but ended up on injured reserve with an ankle injury. He’ll bring his 4.37 40-yard-dash speed back to camp this year and will push for touches as the season progresses.

Draft Board – Don’t bother with him on draft day except in the deepest of leagues. Monitor the Broncos’ rushing situation throughout the year. If McGahee gets hurt or is struggling, use that last roster spot on Fannin.

Giants WR Jerrel Jernigan

I spoke about Jernigan last week, but he’s a no-brainer for this list. New York’s third-round pick one season ago is one of my favorite breakout candidates of 2012. With Mario Manningham gone via free agency, Jernigan, Domenik Hixon, and Ramses Barden are expected to compete for reps as the No. 3 wide receiver behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

Last year, I was high on Manningham, who I expected to step up and replace Steve Smith’s production. A Giants’ wide receiver did break out, but it was Cruz, not Manningham. One of the key reasons for this was the fact that Cruz replaced Smith as Eli Manning’s go-to receiver out of the slot. It may seem hard to believe, but 77 of Victor Cruz’s 103 receptions in 2011 came while lined up in the slot. Jernigan, assuming he does step up and beat out Hixon/Barden, is a better fit on the inside, which would push Cruz outside to Manningham’s old position. Jernigan won’t steal all of Cruz’s targets, but there are plenty to go around, especially with Manning not relying on the running back or tight end much.

Draft Board – In early mocks, Jernigan isn’t even getting drafted. Grab him in the last couple of rounds, just before your defense and kicker.

Browns TE Jordan Cameron

Much like Housler, Cameron is stuck third on his team’s depth chart at the tight end position. He’ll likely head into Week 1 behind 31-year-old Ben Watson, but has a shot to pass out Evan Moore, who is more of a receiver than an all-around tight end. A fourth-round pick in 2011, Cameron appeared in only six games and saw most of his snaps when Watson was injured over the last three weeks of the season. Overall, he hauled in just six of 13 targets, but dropped only one.

Cameron has drawn comparisons to Jimmy Graham, as he’s a basketball player-turned-tight end. He does need some tuning in the blocking game, but a strong camp could mean a changing of the guard from Watson to Cameron at some point this season. It’s worth noting that Watson is entering a contract year, so the Browns would be wise to give Cameron a long look, especially if they fall out of the playoff hunt.

Draft Board – I generally don’t even recommend carrying two tight ends, so stay away from Cameron in all but very deep leagues. Monitor his reps and give him a shot if he starts to see six-plus targets per week.

Ravens WR Tandon Doss

Fellow 2011 rookie Torrey Smith stole the show last season, but don’t forget about fourth-round pick Tandon Doss, who is expected to step into the No. 3 role this season. The good news is that the team is still high on Doss – high enough to not replace departed free agent Lee Evans anyways. Additionally, Anquan Boldin will turn 32 this season, so the team is looking towards the future at the position. The bad news is that Doss was unable to beat out Evans or undrafted free agent LaQuan Williams for reps a season ago. On top of that, the Ravens could always target a wide receiver early in this weekend’s draft.

Talent-wise, Doss is not my favorite name on this list, but the opportunity is there. If an impact rookie is not added to the mix, all it would take is an injury to Boldin or Smith and Doss would find himself as an every-down player.

Draft Board – Keep Doss on your late-round sleeper list, but he’s one you can probably let go undrafted. Monitor his snaps and pounce if Boldin or Smith goes down with an injury.

Rams WR Greg Salas / Austin Pettis

Because I can’t yet get much of a hold on which of these two sophomore wideouts Jeff Fisher and Co. likes more, I’m including them both. The Rams are sure to add wide receiver help in the first two rounds of this weekend’s draft, but that won’t erase all of the question marks facing this unit. Danario Alexander is in place as a situational deep threat, but has a scary injury history and can’t be relied on for 55-plus snaps each week. Danny Amendola is a reliable threat out of the slot, but missed all but 37 snaps in 2011 due to a triceps injury. Steve Smith was added to the mix and can be a terrific possession receiver, but he missed a chunk of 2010 with a knee injury and wasn’t the same player with the Eagles in 2011.

Enter 2011 third and fourth round draft picks Austin Pettis and Greg Salas, respectively. Pettis isn’t very fast, but has good hands and can make it as a slot receiver. Salas has excellent hands and has drawn comparisons to possession receivers along the lines of Wes Welker. Pettis is suspended for the first two games of 2012, which definitely gives Salas an edge here. The key will be playing time. As of now, it looks like three-wide sets will feature Amendola in the slot with Alexander or Smith outside across from Justin Blackmon or another early-round rookie selection. Both Salas and Pettis have the skills to work their way up the depth chart, but only one of them is likely to make an impact in 2012.

Draft Board – Considering Pettis’ suspension, he’s absolutely not worth drafting this year. I also don’t recommend touching Salas unless he finds his way into the starting lineup during the preseason and the Rams’ offense is showing signs of life. No surprise here – monitor Pettis and Salas early in the year and snatch up the one who emerges.

Dolphins WR Clyde Gates

With Brandon Marshall out of the picture, the Dolphins will need to replace close to 30-percent of their targets from last season. Davone Bess is an obvious choice to step up as the team’s go-to possession receiver, but 2011 fourth-round pick Clyde Gates has a chance to emerge, especially with underwhelming Brian Hartline as his only current competition for regular reps. Even if Miami adds an early-round draft pick at the position, the speedy Gates could still find himself playing 50-plus snaps-per-game. The production won’t be consistent, but, if he can find five or six targets every week, he’ll make for a fine WR5 and bye week lottery ticket.

Draft Board – Keep an eye on his training camp progress here. If Gates emerges into a starter, take a late-round stab. If not, keep him on your watch list, as an in-season rise up the depth chart is likely.

Others to monitor

Falcons RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Saints WR Joseph Morgan, Bucs TE Luke Stocker, Colts RB Delone Carter, Packers RB Alex Green, Panthers WR Brandon LaFell, Bills WR Marcus Easley