11. Kansas City Chiefs -- Alabama LB Dont'a Hightower
Luke Kuechly always goes before Hightower in mock drafts. They're both inside 'backers, and Kuechly is regarded as the best in this class. But it's not that simple. Chiefs top ILB Derrick Johnson is an athletic, sideline-to-sideline run-and-hit defender. In Romeo Crennel's 3-4, Johnson is ideally suited to play adjacent a thumping, lead block-busting "Ted" who performs unselfishly. Hightower is far more physical than Kuechly, and ultimately a better scheme fit for Kansas City.
12. Seattle Seahawks -- Boston College LB Luke Kuechly
Pete Carroll and John Schneider's first two drafts have been heavy on productive college players from BCS conferences. 18 prospects have been selected in the two drafts, and the only small-schooler (Appalachian State S Mark LeGree) is no longer with the team. Carroll and Schneider have hit the SEC, Pac 12, and ACC particularly hard. Like most of Seattle's picks over the past two seasons, Kuechly is extremely productive, fills a need, and is squeaky clean off the field.
13. Arizona Cardinals -- Iowa OT Riley Reiff
Reiff-to-Arizona is a perfect match of positional need, draft value, and system fit. Reiff is an old-school, fundamentally-sound blocker who plays a position the Cardinals have unsuccessfully attempted to solve for several years. Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd should be considered, but Arizona's priority must be to keep happy-footed quarterback Kevin Kolb's pocket clean.
14. Dallas Cowboys -- LSU DT Michael Brockers
One of the few things we know with near-certainty entering Thursday's first round is that Dallas will draft Mark Barron if he's available with the No. 14 overall pick. ESPN's Adam Schefter was adamant Wednesday that Barron won't make it to 14, however, and it would be unreasonable to doubt the league's most plugged-in reporter. Brockers is believed to be the Cowboys' fallback option. He is a long-armed "five-technique" who's drawn some Richard Seymour comparisons.
15. Philadelphia Eagles -- Syracuse DE Chandler Jones
The media was way late on this guy, though it's forgivable. Jones didn't put up jaw-dropping stats in the Big East, and he was injured for a spell last season before declaring early for the draft. But NFL teams love long-bodied pass rushers who play through the whistle and are only going to get better. Aldon Smith didn't have great production and wasn't healthy for his final college season, either, and he went seventh overall last offseason. And that worked out pretty well for the Niners.
16. New York Jets -- South Carolina LB Melvin Ingram
It may sound silly, but teams are genuinely concerned about Ingram's sub-6'2" stature and short arms (31 1'2"). They have a prototype in mind for pass rushers, and Ingram doesn't fit. But Ingram is a havoc-wreaking athlete with off-the-charts versatility, and Rex Ryan will know how to use him in the Jets' hybrid scheme. I think Ingram is a lock to the Jets if he's there. And I think he will be.
17. Cincinnati Bengals -- Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick
Profootballtalk reported late Wednesday that Kirkpatrick's stock was never as lofty as we were led to believe. Kirkpatrick is short-armed for a corner considered to be blessed with ideal size, limiting his reach and offsetting his height to a degree. He also made too few plays in college, finishing with three career interceptions. The Bengals are still high on Kirkpatrick, and they'll take him at 17.
18. San Diego Chargers -- Stanford OG David DeCastro
DeCastro has lost some luster in recent weeks. Once considered a shoo-in for the top-13 picks, DeCastro has been the subject of decreased buzz after showing mediocre athleticism in pre-draft workouts. In San Diego, he could push underwhelming RT Jeromey Clary and RG Louis Vasquez.
19. Chicago Bears -- Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus
Chicago used the trade market to address its receiver need, and is looking to the draft for pass-rush help. The Bears hosted at least seven defensive end prospects for pre-draft visits, and among them was Mercilus, who has been knocked as a "one-year wonder" but operates with a relentless motor and finishes plays. He's already a favorite of defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli.
20. Tennessee Titans -- Georgia OG Cordy Glenn
The Titans entered the offseason emphasizing improved interior line play. They signed Steve Hutchinson to play left guard, and can move incumbent right guard Leroy Harris to center, where he is best suited. Glenn is an athletic road grader capable of clearing lanes for Chris Johnson.
Not long after 8PM ET tonight, Andrew Luck will be named the No. 1 overall pick as so many folks expected. Robert Griffin III, who defeated Luck for 2011 first-team All-America honors as well as the Heisman Trophy, will be selected next by Washington. And then, things will get interesting.
The NFL draft is one of the most unpredictable events in pro sports. Longtime Dallas Morning News reporter and columnist Rick Gosselin annually produces the nation's most accurate mock drafts. He got 12-of-32 picks correct last year, beating everyone. That's a 37.5 percent success rate. Gosselin isn't doing a mock this year, but his low-yet-still-untouchable scores are a testament to the unpredictability of the NFL draft. It's also what makes draft season so much fun. We seemingly learn more about prospects every day, and how teams view them.
Here's my final attempt at a 2012 mock draft. I'll feel good if I nail six or seven of these picks. Rip where necessary.
1. Indianapolis Colts -- Stanford QB Andrew Luck
The debate about whether Luck or Griffin would be the No. 1 pick was manufactured. (Admittedly, I contributed.) As former club president Bill Polian has explained on ESPN, Colts owner Jim Irsay essentially made his mind up on Luck early in the 2011 college season, perhaps even before. I'd venture to guess that Irsay never watched a full game of RG3's. It doesn't matter, though. Luck is every bit a franchise quarterback, and his addition adds immediate credibility to Indy's offense.
2. Washington Redskins -- Baylor QB Robert Griffin III
NFL Films' Greg Cosell watches more tape than anyone on the planet, and his endorsement of RG3 as the draft's top quarterback prospect should instill confidence in Redskins fans. Cosell released a mock draft a few days ago, basing it strictly on film study and what Cosell believes teams should do in the draft. He had Indianapolis taking RG3. "Griffin is a superior arm talent and better natural passer than Luck," Cosell wrote. "That's my story, and I'm sticking to it."
3. Minnesota Vikings -- LSU CB Morris Claiborne
ESPN's Adam Schefter didn't quite "report" it on Wednesday, but he strongly hinted that USC LT Matt Kalil has moved to the back of the line in Minnesota's draft-day decision making. "The feeling around the league is that the Vikings will look at Morris Claiborne or Justin Blackmon (if they can't trade out)," Schefter said. I think the Vikings are underrating the offensive line in a division of Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, and a Lions defense that has finished sixth and tenth in the league in sacks over the past two seasons. Minnesota's quarterback, Christian Ponder, has also been injury prone dating back deep into his college career. But the Vikes seem to want the cornerback more.
4. Cleveland Browns -- Alabama RB Trent Richardson
The Browns were late to the RG3 dance, and never deemed Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill worthy of the No. 4 pick in the draft. Colt McCoy isn't the long-term answer at quarterback, but Cleveland can at least give itself a fighting chance by selecting a playmaking, first-down creator in the draft's top running back. The Browns are going to give Richardson the football over 300 times this year.
5. Tampa Bay Bucs -- South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore
The Vikings' Claiborne leanings threw a bit of a wrench into the Bucs' plans, though new coach Greg Schiano's club can counter with a cornerback many folks around the NFL feel projects just as well -- if not better -- into the pros. Gilmore is 6-foot-1, 190 pounds with fluid hip turn and a 4.40 forty time. Alabama safety Mark Barron is a deep sleeper to go here, as the Buccaneers seek a means to slow Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, and Greg Olsen in the tight end-rich NFC South.
6. St. Louis Rams -- USC LT Matt Kalil
Look for the Rams to take Blackmon if Kalil works his way into the top five, either via a trade up from Buffalo or best-player-available strategy by Tampa Bay. If Kalil and Blackmon are both on the board at No. 6, St. Louis must select the higher-graded player. O-Line is just as much a need for the Rams as receiver. While they will have a shot at Baylor's Kendall Wright, LSU's Rueben Randle, or Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill at the top of round two, there won't be anyone like Kalil there.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars -- Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon
Blackmon isn't as strong a prospect as much of the media claims, and I'm skeptical that he'd be GM Gene Smith's top-rated player at No. 7. But Smith isn't exactly long on job security, and his fate rests on the timid shoulders of Blaine Gabbert. The Jags believe that improving Gabbert's supporting cast can turn him around, so they can't afford to go passing if the alleged-best receiver in the draft falls into their lap. If Gabbert can't produce when surrounded by Maurice Jones-Drew, Marcedes Lewis, Laurent Robinson, and Blackmon, we'll know it's probably never happening.
8. Miami Dolphins -- Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill
Profootballtalk's Mike Florio, SI's Peter King, and ESPN's Adam Schefter have all reported that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross wants the team to draft Tannehill. While few owners of pro sports franchises have poorer track records of getting their guy than Ross, he should execute in this instance. NFL Network's Mike Lombardi astutely noted that the Tannehill pick could buy much-maligned GM Jeff Ireland some time, too. "Ireland can make a case to his owner that, hey, if I take Ryan Tannehill, I can get a contract extension," Lombardi opined Wednesday. Makes sense.
9. Carolina Panthers -- Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox
Cox earned first-team All-SEC accolades as a 20-year-old second-year starter. I don't pretend that all-conference honors are a predictor of NFL success, but this is a dynamic pass rusher with dominant tools and upside. In a recent interview with Sirius XM Radio's Adam Caplan, one NFL general manager called Cox the best defensive player in the draft. He is athletic enough to fill Carolina's left defensive end void on early downs, and kick inside to tackle in the nickel package.
10. Buffalo Bills -- Alabama S Mark Barron
Buffalo has solid starting safeties in Jairus Byrd and George Wilson, but they're going to have to play three-safety sets in order to combat Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and knock off the Pats. Gronk posted lines of 7-109-2 and 8-108-2 in New England's two matchups with Buffalo last season. Hernandez missed the first with a knee injury, but had 7-138-1 in the second. The Bills must arm themselves with the necessary defense mechanisms to take the AFC East division.
11. Kansas City Chiefs -- Alabama LB Dont'a Hightower
Luke Kuechly always goes before Hightower in mock drafts. They're both inside 'backers, and Kuechly is regarded as the best in this class. But it's not that simple. Chiefs top ILB Derrick Johnson is an athletic, sideline-to-sideline run-and-hit defender. In Romeo Crennel's 3-4, Johnson is ideally suited to play adjacent a thumping, lead block-busting "Ted" who performs unselfishly. Hightower is far more physical than Kuechly, and ultimately a better scheme fit for Kansas City.
12. Seattle Seahawks -- Boston College LB Luke Kuechly
Pete Carroll and John Schneider's first two drafts have been heavy on productive college players from BCS conferences. 18 prospects have been selected in the two drafts, and the only small-schooler (Appalachian State S Mark LeGree) is no longer with the team. Carroll and Schneider have hit the SEC, Pac 12, and ACC particularly hard. Like most of Seattle's picks over the past two seasons, Kuechly is extremely productive, fills a need, and is squeaky clean off the field.
13. Arizona Cardinals -- Iowa OT Riley Reiff
Reiff-to-Arizona is a perfect match of positional need, draft value, and system fit. Reiff is an old-school, fundamentally-sound blocker who plays a position the Cardinals have unsuccessfully attempted to solve for several years. Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd should be considered, but Arizona's priority must be to keep happy-footed quarterback Kevin Kolb's pocket clean.
14. Dallas Cowboys -- LSU DT Michael Brockers
One of the few things we know with near-certainty entering Thursday's first round is that Dallas will draft Mark Barron if he's available with the No. 14 overall pick. ESPN's Adam Schefter was adamant Wednesday that Barron won't make it to 14, however, and it would be unreasonable to doubt the league's most plugged-in reporter. Brockers is believed to be the Cowboys' fallback option. He is a long-armed "five-technique" who's drawn some Richard Seymour comparisons.
15. Philadelphia Eagles -- Syracuse DE Chandler Jones
The media was way late on this guy, though it's forgivable. Jones didn't put up jaw-dropping stats in the Big East, and he was injured for a spell last season before declaring early for the draft. But NFL teams love long-bodied pass rushers who play through the whistle and are only going to get better. Aldon Smith didn't have great production and wasn't healthy for his final college season, either, and he went seventh overall last offseason. And that worked out pretty well for the Niners.
16. New York Jets -- South Carolina LB Melvin Ingram
It may sound silly, but teams are genuinely concerned about Ingram's sub-6'2" stature and short arms (31 1'2"). They have a prototype in mind for pass rushers, and Ingram doesn't fit. But Ingram is a havoc-wreaking athlete with off-the-charts versatility, and Rex Ryan will know how to use him in the Jets' hybrid scheme. I think Ingram is a lock to the Jets if he's there. And I think he will be.
17. Cincinnati Bengals -- Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick
Profootballtalk reported late Wednesday that Kirkpatrick's stock was never as lofty as we were led to believe. Kirkpatrick is short-armed for a corner considered to be blessed with ideal size, limiting his reach and offsetting his height to a degree. He also made too few plays in college, finishing with three career interceptions. The Bengals are still high on Kirkpatrick, and they'll take him at 17.
18. San Diego Chargers -- Stanford OG David DeCastro
DeCastro has lost some luster in recent weeks. Once considered a shoo-in for the top-13 picks, DeCastro has been the subject of decreased buzz after showing mediocre athleticism in pre-draft workouts. In San Diego, he could push underwhelming RT Jeromey Clary and RG Louis Vasquez.
19. Chicago Bears -- Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus
Chicago used the trade market to address its receiver need, and is looking to the draft for pass-rush help. The Bears hosted at least seven defensive end prospects for pre-draft visits, and among them was Mercilus, who has been knocked as a "one-year wonder" but operates with a relentless motor and finishes plays. He's already a favorite of defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli.
20. Tennessee Titans -- Georgia OG Cordy Glenn
The Titans entered the offseason emphasizing improved interior line play. They signed Steve Hutchinson to play left guard, and can move incumbent right guard Leroy Harris to center, where he is best suited. Glenn is an athletic road grader capable of clearing lanes for Chris Johnson.
21. Cincinnati Bengals -- Alabama DE Courtney Upshaw
It's been known since early in the draft process that Bengals coach Marvin Lewis and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer are big fans of Upshaw. While he isn't the top-10 pick some initially billed him to be, Upshaw is a try-hard defensive end with outstanding production and work ethic.
22. Cleveland Browns -- Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd
Most mocks ticket Floyd for the first half of round one, but recurring character woes could cost him in a wideout-rich draft. Floyd is still a big-time prospect with No. 1-receiver tools. A natural hands catcher with "YAC" ability, Floyd would be a terrific fit in Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense.
23. Detroit Lions -- Stanford OT Jonathan Martin
Initially considered a potential top-15 pick, Martin has settled in as a "late one, early two" after a pedestrian spring. Martin doesn't have ideal athleticism for left tackle, or requisite power for the right side. In Detroit, he could be brought along slowly behind Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers -- Memphis NT Dontari Poe
A media pinata since his freakish Combine performance, Poe has been so picked apart that he's gotten to the point of underrated. Strong coaching can fix his deficiencies, and there are no work ethic or character concerns about this moldable piece of clay. Poe is going to be a top-25 pick.
25. Denver Broncos -- Boise State RB Doug Martin
The Broncos are in win-now mode. They're paying Peyton Manning almost $20 million a year after four neck surgeries at age 36, and need a tailback capable of functioning in the "Peyton offense." What does that require? Blitz pickup and receiving skills, and knowledge of assignments in the hurry-up. Martin learned all of that in Boise State's up-tempo system, and he can be a workhorse.
26. Houston Texans -- Baylor WR Kendall Wright
NFL execs believe Wright has the best film of any receiver in the draft. Yes, better than Justin Blackmon's, and Michael Floyd's, and all the others. Wright is a game-breaking deep threat who can work in the slot and outside. More Victor Cruz than Percy Harvin, Wright can be a dangerous weapon on Houston's play-action fakes while exploiting single coverage opposite Andre Johnson.
27. New England Patriots -- Boise State LB Shea McClellin
McClellin can play four positions on defense, which fits nicely in New England because the Pats are one of the league's most hybrid teams. McClellin would be a classic edge rusher in 3-4 looks, dabbling inside on early downs and playing Sam 'backer in the 4-3. He's a Belichickian player.
28. Green Bay Packers -- Wisconsin C Peter Konz
Konz has some question marks. He enters the league with medical concerns after a 2011 ankle dislocation, and exhibited below-average strength in Combine drills. As an interior offensive lineman, Konz can't have too many blemishes if he expects to be a first-round draft pick. Still polished, versatile, and athletic, it's no secret that Konz has a fan in Packers GM Ted Thompson.
29. Baltimore Ravens -- LSU WR Rueben Randle
Randle was used as primarily a vertical threat in LSU's run-first offense, running the majority of his routes downfield and stretching defenses off play-action. He has sure hands, prototype size, and game-breaking run-after-catch ability, though, and no one catches him in the open field. Anquan Boldin could show Randle the ropes as a rookie, before he replaces the 32-year-old in 2013.
30. San Francisco 49ers -- West Virginia LB Bruce Irvin
Irvin has character flags, but the Niners haven't been shy about calculated risks. They scored on troubled CB Chris Culliver in last year's third round, and signed Randy Moss this March. Irvin will probably never be a full-time outside linebacker, but he projects as a sub-package sack master.
31. New England Patriots -- Georgia CB Brandon Boykin
Boykin was arguably the most versatile defender in the nation as a senior, covering both the slot and outside at Georgia while returning punts for touchdowns and even putting points on the board on offense. Bill Belichick loves those qualities in young players. Boykin will be a very good pro.
32. New York Giants -- North Carolina DE Quinton Coples
Based on inconsistent and ultimately underwhelming 2011 tape, teams have soured on Coples to the point that he might fall out of round one. There's also a good chance he won't because Giants GM Jerry Reese knows a value pick when he sees one. Reese collects pass rushers, and Coples could play inside as a gap shooter while being groomed as LE Justin Tuck's long-term successor.
Left Out: Midwestern State OG Amini Silatolu, Penn State DT Devon Still, Stanford TE Coby Fleener, Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill, Wisconsin G Kevin Zeitler, USC DE Nick Perry, Clemson DE Andre Branch, North Alabama CB Janoris Jenkins, Virginia Tech RB David Wilson, UConn DT Kendall Reyes, Ohio State OT Mike Adams, Virginia Tech CB Jayron Hosley, Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden, Marshall DE Vinny Curry, Appalachian State WR Brian Quick, Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy, South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery, Notre Dame S Harrison Smith, Washington DT Alameda Ta'amu.