17. QB Geno Smith (6'3/214), West Virginia- Possessing a quick release that shines in a fast moving offense, Smith drops back quickly and adds the necessary amount of velocity to fit throws into alleys between the numbers or on the sidelines on anticipation routes. He lacks real experience in a full field progression-read offense and does not have consistent downfield accuracy, but Smith took a giant leap before last season under Dana Holgerson and I expect an even bigger one this year.
18. LT Ricky Wagner (6'6/320), Wisconsin- At the snap, Wagner's hands take a bit too long to reach their target after dropping them to his waist, but he delivers a clinching punch while attempting to lift and redirect in the running game. In his pass set, Wagner stays low until contact while shuffling his feet to control and absorb the pass rusher. He will be the next Wisconsin lineman to be selected early in the draft.
19. DE Dion Jordan (6'6/246), Oregon- Blessed with an outstanding closing burst and valued length, Jordan is more of a project that flashes tremendous pass rusher potential than a finished product. He lacks the strength to work inside against stouter blockers, but Jordan holds the edge by penetrating the backfield and engulfing the ball carrier. He already shows hand control to separate on the outside and really lays the wood on contact.
20. LB Shayne Skov (6'3/244), Stanford- There are not many flashy qualities to Skov's game but he offers consistency and quick movements to get around blocks at the second level. Mostly due to getting caught in no man's land, Skov is only adequate in coverage but he has many veteran tendencies that should translate to production and growth.
21. FS Robert Lester (6'2/210), Alabama- Mark Barron's running mate last season, Lester chose the same path as the seventh overall selection in terms of returning to school for his final season rather than leaving early. If he had declared early, Lester had a real shot of being the second safety chosen just a few days ago. Instead he brings his downfield coverage and delayed blitz abilities back to Tuscaloosa for one more season.
22. CB Johnthan Banks (6'1/185), Mississippi State- Despite playing plenty of off coverage thus far in his career, Banks has the necessary quickness, burst, and reaction timing to close on short breaking routes confidently with success. However, he does lack that physical nature to his game which especially shows when asked to hold the edge on outside runs. From a coverage standpoint, Banks is one of the top cornerbacks in the class.
23. RB Knile Davis (6'0, 226), Arkansas- After missing all of last season due to a fractured ankle, I am banking on Davis returning to his previous form. Despite his larger size, Davis is shifty in the hole with multiple lateral steps and exaggerated movements to change his tackler's angle. He succeeds when there is a slight crease on runs between the tackles, but Davis could improve when finding cutback lanes inside on runs to the edge. Let's hope he returns to his mid 4.4 speed.
24. LB Nico Johnson (6'2/246), Alabama- Without first-round pick Dont'a Hightower by his side, Johnson will now command the spotlight at the second level. He plays too high at times, which causes hesitations and wasted movements, but Johnson has recovery quickness and a willingness to plug holes at the line of scrimmage. He does not offer the same pass rush versatility that Hightower has.
25. RB Kenjon Barner (5'11/195), Oregon- An absolute burner, Barner offers a larger build than many other Oregon ball carriers. He is perfectly content to cut in one step up the field between the tackles and slice the defense with long runs right up the middle. However, other than flashing balance, Barner does not often stay up after first contact. But, once defenders see Barner's name on the back of his jersey, he is gone.
26. G Chance Warmack (6'2/320), Alabama- A plump interior lineman, Warmack consistently fires off the snap with excellent pad level due to his short stature. He could extend his arms more when run blocking but Warmack plays under control with very good strength, especially when leaning against pass rushers to redirect. The Alabama product may project to center at the next level.
27. S Bacarri Rambo (6'0/218), Georgia- A 2011 All-American, Rambo is at his best when covering running backs or tight ends downfield and closing aggressively against runs on the edge. Too often Rambo fails to bring his arms to the party when tackling and his angles lack anticipation, but it is tough to argue with his eight interceptions last season; the ball always seemed to find Rambo.
28. DT Aaron Tipoti (6'2/295), California- Tipoti is a stouter nose tackle that really fires off the ball with force on first contact. He consistently holds and sheds double teams with leverage but lacks the backfield vision to diagnose the play that is happening in front of him. The run stuffing specialist has lost its value in the NFL, but Tipoti is active and relentlessly attempts to penetrate on passing downs.
29. CB Desmond Trufant (6'0/185), Washington- The younger brother of Marcus, Desmond is an aggressive corner that tends to duck his head when closing on his target. In coverage Trufant mirrors downfield well but gives up just enough separation at the catch point too often, mostly due to taking too many steps when reacting to cuts. I am expecting a jump in consistency from the thickly built corner.
30. LT Oday Aboushi (6'6/310), UVA- The ceiling is high for Aboushi but he needs a lot of refinement. First, his upper body is a bit soft and it shows when he is forced to overextend himself when attempting to jolt the opposition on first contact when pass protecting. Aboushi also lets defensive linemen into his chest too much but there are times where he mirrors perfectly. Development is needed.
31. TE Joseph Fauria (6'7/252), UCLA- After transferring from Notre Dame. Fauria saw limited targets but flashed exceptional inline ability. His frame is thin and it shows in his blocking strength on the edge, but Fauria fights through trash to get downfield and tracks the ball over his shoulder very well. There are plenty of underclassmen tight ends, but Fauria is the best of the senior crop.
32. DT John Jenkins (6'3/351), Georgia- Another boom or bust prospect, Jenkins is dominant for stretches when at his best but a flop when his motor is turned off. For such a massive player, Jenkins must get off the line with a low pad level, jolt on first contact and continue his momentum into the backfield in order to be successful. Sadly, he frequently stops after that initial engagement and chooses to kill grass instead of blockers. Jenkins makes this list just because of the glimpses he gives of crumbling the interior of the pocket.
So with the 2012 NFL Draft firmly in our 48 hour rear view mirror, it is absolutely time to set our sights on next year's crop of college football prospects.
Here I have listed my top 32 senior prospects heading into their final seasons. You will notice the group is dense on the defensive side of the ball, with many underclassmen expected to dominate the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. It happens every year. However, the non-senior pass rushing group is loaded with edge talent. At least for the summer, I try to stick with only senior talent so keep that in mind when you do not see many of the impact names you expected.
Warning, the following contents are expected to drastically change over the next 360 days:
1. QB Matt Barkley (6'2/220), USC- Many already question Barkley's arm strength and admittedly I have plenty of games to watch before coming to a final conclusion, but it is tough to argue with his ball placement and experienced footwork. Sure, Barkley throws plenty of screen or swing passes in an offense that focuses getting the ball into their playmaker's hands, but he is already asked to make checkdowns at the line based on defensive positioning. I see him zip throws to the sideline after working through progressions frequently. Although he may not ultimately end the process as the top quarterback prospect, Barkley is the safest bet as of right now.
2. QB Tyler Wilson (6'3/220), Arkansas- We will see how Wilson performs under adverse circumstances next season after offensive minded head coach Bobby Petrino was fired only weeks ago. As for his on-field skills, Wilson has a little experience under center and frequently tests downfield coverage on vertical routes. Although his release is elongated, Wilson really whips throws all over the field but tends to overthrow his receivers occasionally. For the most part he is willing to stand in the pocket while working the progressions but Wilson lost many targets to this year's draft and may need to adapt to a new system quickly.
3. DT Star Lotulelei (6'3/325), Utah- There is a soft spot in my heart for beefy interior defensive linemen with high motors and penetration ability. Lotulelei fits that bill and he is the best prospect you have yet to hear about. A likely nose tackle at the next level, Lotulelei could be even more dominant if he bows his elbows less when extending and locates the ball sooner.
4. OLB Sean Porter (6'1/230), Texas A&M- An outside linebacker in the Aggies three man front, Porter crashes the edge under control and looks very comfortable in space. He is not quite the rare parallel bender on the outside that Von Miller was in college, but Porter's number "10" jersey sure does look like Miller's "40" on some plays. Porter's long frame, flexibility, tenacity, and active hands make him one of this year's top pass rushers.
5. DE Alex Okafor (6'4/260), Texas- I am expecting a big jump from Okafor who has a ton of natural ability but has yet to harness it into consistent success. In order to reach that potential, he needs to add strength to his length when engaging and take a more aggressive angle to the quarterback. Okafor should get double digit sacks since he posted 11 pressures as a junior.
6. WR Tavon Austin (5'8/176), West Virginia- Austin is an absolute burner that carries his speed throughout his routes while breaking into soft zones or when taking a short slant to the house with outstanding vertical ability. Sure he lacks desirable size, but Austin is a tremendous returner and his connection with quarterback Geno Smith could remind some of Robert Griffin and Kendall Wright's next year.
7. DT Kawann Short (6'3/310), Purdue- Short thrives on pushing the pocket from the interior, using an active upper body and driving his legs to constantly keep his opposition from anchoring. The interior force does not carry his weight extremely well and does struggle when he cannot instantly jolt an offensive lineman back on first contact, but Short does more than most space eaters.
8. ILB Manti Te'o (6'2/255), Notre Dame- A mainstay on the Irish defense since his freshman year, Te'o headlines the excellent group of 2013 linebackers. He stacks and sheds blocks from the inside linebacker position better than anyone in the 2012 and 2013 classes and even added some pass rush skills to his arsenal. A truly physical hammer from the second level, Te'o has enough speed, fluidity, and reaction quicks to make sideline tackle.
9. OLB Chase Thomas (6'4/240), Stanford- A powerful 3-4 outside linebacker, Thomas compares favorably to Connor Barwin and is the Cardinal's best pass rusher. He starts from a two or three point stance on and keeps a very low pad level to leverage well on the edge against the run or releasing towards the quarterback. It is difficult to not love how strong Thomas plays when engaging bigger offensive linemen.
10. C Barrett Jones (6'4/312), Alabama- Jones transitioned smoothly from left tackle to center, showing quick hands to gain positioning and a consistent grasp to control. He sits back in his stance well but Jones should improve his balance versus quick inside speed rushers and anticipation to hit targets at the second level.
11. FS TJ McDonald (6'2/205), USC- A rangy safety that brings the hammer at the tackle point, McDonald is one of this year's top prospects at any position. While others around him are standing flat footed, McDonald is clicking and closing on under routes or baiting the quarterback to test him vertically. McDonald tends to overrun ball carriers at times when his angles are too aggressive but he has the traits of becoming a reliable defender at multiple levels of the field.
12. CB Johnny Adams (5'11/175), Michigan State- The leggy corner is featured in press-bail coverage where he succeeds in mirroring receivers downfield. Adams does struggle against larger targets who use their strength and frame to shield him from the ball. But Adams does possess quality ball skills, feeling when to time contact at the catch point or undercutting routes for an interception.
13. OLB Brandon Jenkins (6'3/265), FSU- With 21.5 sacks and nine quarterback hurries in his last two seasons, Jenkins offers pass rushing size and skills NFL teams look for. He has experience from two point and three point stances, but Jenkins does not maximize his excellent burst off the line since he struggles to disengage once in the offensive lineman's grasp.
14. RB Montee Ball (5'9/212), Wisconsin- There is a lot to like about the ultra-productive runner from Madison. Ball keeps his shoulders low while breaking many arm tackles because of it. He stays between the tackles with patience better than most college backs and can grind out the tough yards for a team or make a tackle miss in the open field with a slight wiggle. His 568 career rushes worry me the most.
15. DE Devin Taylor (6'6/260), South Carolina- A menacing blend of size and speed, Taylor is the next draft eligible member of the talented Gamecock defensive line. Playing mostly left defensive end, Taylor does not maximize his length yet to leverage and separate on the edge, but his natural quickness cannot be taught. Melvin Ingram took a giant leap during his senior season and Taylor may end up doing the same.
16. LB Kevin Reddick (6'2/240), UNC- On plays between the tackle, Reddick fills the hole quickly and with strength. However, he was frequently asked to cover the linebacker out of the backfield and struggled to stay out of no man's land. With Zach Brown departing, Reddick's role should grow and hopefully his wasted movements will diminish.
17. QB Geno Smith (6'3/214), West Virginia- Possessing a quick release that shines in a fast moving offense, Smith drops back quickly and adds the necessary amount of velocity to fit throws into alleys between the numbers or on the sidelines on anticipation routes. He lacks real experience in a full field progression-read offense and does not have consistent downfield accuracy, but Smith took a giant leap before last season under Dana Holgerson and I expect an even bigger one this year.
18. LT Ricky Wagner (6'6/320), Wisconsin- At the snap, Wagner's hands take a bit too long to reach their target after dropping them to his waist, but he delivers a clinching punch while attempting to lift and redirect in the running game. In his pass set, Wagner stays low until contact while shuffling his feet to control and absorb the pass rusher. He will be the next Wisconsin lineman to be selected early in the draft.
19. DE Dion Jordan (6'6/246), Oregon- Blessed with an outstanding closing burst and valued length, Jordan is more of a project that flashes tremendous pass rusher potential than a finished product. He lacks the strength to work inside against stouter blockers, but Jordan holds the edge by penetrating the backfield and engulfing the ball carrier. He already shows hand control to separate on the outside and really lays the wood on contact.
20. LB Shayne Skov (6'3/244), Stanford- There are not many flashy qualities to Skov's game but he offers consistency and quick movements to get around blocks at the second level. Mostly due to getting caught in no man's land, Skov is only adequate in coverage but he has many veteran tendencies that should translate to production and growth.
21. FS Robert Lester (6'2/210), Alabama- Mark Barron's running mate last season, Lester chose the same path as the seventh overall selection in terms of returning to school for his final season rather than leaving early. If he had declared early, Lester had a real shot of being the second safety chosen just a few days ago. Instead he brings his downfield coverage and delayed blitz abilities back to Tuscaloosa for one more season.
22. CB Johnthan Banks (6'1/185), Mississippi State- Despite playing plenty of off coverage thus far in his career, Banks has the necessary quickness, burst, and reaction timing to close on short breaking routes confidently with success. However, he does lack that physical nature to his game which especially shows when asked to hold the edge on outside runs. From a coverage standpoint, Banks is one of the top cornerbacks in the class.
23. RB Knile Davis (6'0, 226), Arkansas- After missing all of last season due to a fractured ankle, I am banking on Davis returning to his previous form. Despite his larger size, Davis is shifty in the hole with multiple lateral steps and exaggerated movements to change his tackler's angle. He succeeds when there is a slight crease on runs between the tackles, but Davis could improve when finding cutback lanes inside on runs to the edge. Let's hope he returns to his mid 4.4 speed.
24. LB Nico Johnson (6'2/246), Alabama- Without first-round pick Dont'a Hightower by his side, Johnson will now command the spotlight at the second level. He plays too high at times, which causes hesitations and wasted movements, but Johnson has recovery quickness and a willingness to plug holes at the line of scrimmage. He does not offer the same pass rush versatility that Hightower has.
25. RB Kenjon Barner (5'11/195), Oregon- An absolute burner, Barner offers a larger build than many other Oregon ball carriers. He is perfectly content to cut in one step up the field between the tackles and slice the defense with long runs right up the middle. However, other than flashing balance, Barner does not often stay up after first contact. But, once defenders see Barner's name on the back of his jersey, he is gone.
26. G Chance Warmack (6'2/320), Alabama- A plump interior lineman, Warmack consistently fires off the snap with excellent pad level due to his short stature. He could extend his arms more when run blocking but Warmack plays under control with very good strength, especially when leaning against pass rushers to redirect. The Alabama product may project to center at the next level.
27. S Bacarri Rambo (6'0/218), Georgia- A 2011 All-American, Rambo is at his best when covering running backs or tight ends downfield and closing aggressively against runs on the edge. Too often Rambo fails to bring his arms to the party when tackling and his angles lack anticipation, but it is tough to argue with his eight interceptions last season; the ball always seemed to find Rambo.
28. DT Aaron Tipoti (6'2/295), California- Tipoti is a stouter nose tackle that really fires off the ball with force on first contact. He consistently holds and sheds double teams with leverage but lacks the backfield vision to diagnose the play that is happening in front of him. The run stuffing specialist has lost its value in the NFL, but Tipoti is active and relentlessly attempts to penetrate on passing downs.
29. CB Desmond Trufant (6'0/185), Washington- The younger brother of Marcus, Desmond is an aggressive corner that tends to duck his head when closing on his target. In coverage Trufant mirrors downfield well but gives up just enough separation at the catch point too often, mostly due to taking too many steps when reacting to cuts. I am expecting a jump in consistency from the thickly built corner.
30. LT Oday Aboushi (6'6/310), UVA- The ceiling is high for Aboushi but he needs a lot of refinement. First, his upper body is a bit soft and it shows when he is forced to overextend himself when attempting to jolt the opposition on first contact when pass protecting. Aboushi also lets defensive linemen into his chest too much but there are times where he mirrors perfectly. Development is needed.
31. TE Joseph Fauria (6'7/252), UCLA- After transferring from Notre Dame. Fauria saw limited targets but flashed exceptional inline ability. His frame is thin and it shows in his blocking strength on the edge, but Fauria fights through trash to get downfield and tracks the ball over his shoulder very well. There are plenty of underclassmen tight ends, but Fauria is the best of the senior crop.
32. DT John Jenkins (6'3/351), Georgia- Another boom or bust prospect, Jenkins is dominant for stretches when at his best but a flop when his motor is turned off. For such a massive player, Jenkins must get off the line with a low pad level, jolt on first contact and continue his momentum into the backfield in order to be successful. Sadly, he frequently stops after that initial engagement and chooses to kill grass instead of blockers. Jenkins makes this list just because of the glimpses he gives of crumbling the interior of the pocket.