Clay: Fantasy Top Tens

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson - DET – Johnson was targeted fewer than eight times in just six of 17 games during the 2011 season. “Megatron” has been responsible for 22-plus percent of the Lion’s targets each of the last four years and 41-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns three of the last four seasons.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ – In 16 games last season, Fitzgerald was targeted fewer than seven times only twice and reached double digits on seven occasions. He’s seen 26-plus percent of the Cardinals’ targets each of the last four years and hasn’t scored fewer than 38 percent of the receiving touchdowns during the same span. Fitzgerald has averaged seven touchdowns over the last two seasons after racking up 15 in 2009 and 19 in 2008.

3. Andre Johnson - HST – Johnson had scored either eight or nine touchdowns each of the past three seasons before an injury-shortened 2011 season in which he was on pace for, you guessed it, eight touchdowns (extrapolated using complete games played). In the six full games Johnson played in 2011, he averaged 9.5 targets-per-game, which was just behind his 10.1 average from 2010.

4. Greg Jennings - GB – Unlike the first three players on this list, who see a majority of their snaps out wide, Jennings saw just under half his snaps in the slot a year ago. That wasn’t typical for Jennings, but it resulted in an impressive catch rate just under 70 percent. He saw no less than 21 percent of the Packers’ targets during the 2008-10 seasons and would’ve been right around 22 percent in 2011 if not for an injury that cost him three games.

5. A.J. Green - CIN – As a rookie during the 2011 season, Green was one of the league’s most-utilized wide receivers, handling just under a quarter of Cincinnati’s targets. He saw 7.7 targets-per-game and was thrown at seven-plus times in 10 of his 16 games.

6. Hakeem Nicks - NYG – On a per-game basis, Nicks saw just under 30 percent of the Giants’ targets in 2010, but that figure fell to 25 percent in 2011 thank to the emergence of Victor Cruz. Still, Nicks saw seven-plus targets in 14 of the 19 games he appeared in during the 2011 season. He’s still an elite option despite the foot injury.

7. Roddy White - ATL – Over Atlanta’s final eight games of the 2011 season, White enjoyed double-digit targets seven times. Overall, he was targeted on 30 percent of Matt Ryan’s throws and has been over 30 percent four years in a row. Julio Jones’ emergence led to a smaller cut of the team’s receiving touchdowns (28 percent, compared to no lower than 38 percent each of the previous three seasons), but he still scored eight times in 17 games.

8. Julio Jones - ATL – Jones was a poster boy for regression in 2011, failing to score his first NFL touchdown until Week 9 before going on to finding pay dirt eight times in his last nine games. In the 14 games Jones appeared in, he saw 20 percent of Atlanta’s targets and reached double-digits three times. He plays almost exclusively on the outside, but three of his seven targets from the slot resulted in a touchdown.

9. Mike Wallace - PIT – Wallace was the target on 22 percent of the Steelers’ throws and has scored, at least, 36 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Despite the emergence of Antonio Brown, Wallace saw 8.3 targets-per-game during the last four games of 2011.

10. Victor Cruz - NYG – Cruz’s breakout 2011 season saw him appear in the max 20 games an NFL player can participate in during one season. Despite not playing much the first two weeks, he saw 22 percent of Eli Manning’s targets on the year – an average of 7.6 per game. Cruz plays from the slot quite often, as shown by the fact that 115 of his 151 targets (76 percent) and eight of his 10 touchdowns (80 percent) last season came while lined up inside.

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham - NO – Graham lined up as a wide receiver on over half his snaps in 2011. Although most of his targets came while lined up in the slot, only one of his 14 touchdowns came from that location. In 18 games last season, Graham was never targeted fewer than seven times and saw double-digit targets on seven occasions. His consistency keeps him ahead of Gronkowski.

2. Rob Gronkowski - NE – Gronkowski was responsible for 42 percent of the Patriots’ receiving touchdowns in 2011. He enjoyed double-digit targets five times in 19 games, but also fewer than six targets six times. Gronkowski has scored 31 times in 36 career games.

3. Antonio Gates - SD – Despite missing three games, Gates saw 16 percent of the Chargers’ targets last season, averaging 20 percent when he was active. He has accounted for no less than 27 percent of San Diego’s receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons. Six of Gates’ seven touchdowns last season came while lined up in the slot.

4. Aaron Hernandez - NE – Hernandez saw 10-plus targets in four of New England’s final six games last season. He lined up as an in-line tight end only 29 percent of the time and spent another eight percent in the backfield. Seven of his nine touchdowns came while lined up with his hand in the dirt, however.

5. Jason Witten - DAL – Witten was targeted 40 times over Dallas’ first four games of 2011 before averaging 6.2 the rest of the way. He was targeted in the double-digits three times on the year and all three came before Week 9. After seeing exactly 23 percent of the team’s targets three years in a row, Witten handled 21 percent in 2011.

6. Vernon Davis - SF – Davis averaged 4.5 targets-per-game during Weeks 1-10 last season, but saw 7.1 the rest of the way. Over the last three seasons, he’s been responsible for no less than 37 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns in a given season. That includes 45 percent in 2011.

7. Jermichael Finley - GB – Finley averaged exactly five targets-per-game during the first 11 games of 2011 before seeing 7.3 per-game in the final six affairs. His only two double-digit target games came after Week 12. Finley saw 17 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ targets last season. His extrapolated numbers in 2010 and 2009 showed him on pace for 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Six of Finley’s eight touchdowns came while lined up as a wide receiver.

8. Fred Davis - WAS – Prior to a four-game suspension, Davis had seen 21 percent of the Redskins’ targets, which worked out to exactly seven per game. He averaged an impressive 7.8 yards after the catch on 38 receptions while lined up with his hand in the dirt.

9. Tony Gonzalez - ATL – Gonzalez lines up with his hand in the dirt about two-thirds of the time, but was only targeted on seven percent of those snaps in 2011. That’s compared to seeing a Matt Ryan target on 21 percent of his slot snaps. In each of his three seasons with the Falcons, Gonzalez has seen, at least, 19 percent of the targets and has scored 21-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns.

10. Jacob Tamme - DEN – Tamme played, at least, half the snaps with Peyton Manning in 10 games back in 2010. In those games, he averaged 9.4 targets-per-game, which worked out to 24 percent of Manning’s throws. With the Colts, Tamme played with his hand in the dirt about three-quarters of the time.

Following the lead of colleagues Evan Silva and Chris Wesseling, today I’m releasing a list of my top-10 players at the four most important fantasy football positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end.

Like Evan and Chris, I added in a little bit of analysis, but instead of a “quick” explanation for the ranking, I offered some statistical tidbits for you to chew on.

Note that the statistics shown include the playoffs. Snap distribution data provided by Pro Football Focus.

Quarterbacks

1. Aaron Rodgers - GB – Rodgers had a 21:2 TD:INT ratio last season…on the road. His 26:5 home mark was pretty good, too. He’s on his own tier at the top.

2. Cam Newton - CAR – 14 rushing touchdowns overshadowed a disturbing 8:10 TD:INT ratio on the road. The rushing scores will regress, but the yardage will remain and he should only continue to improve as a passer.

3. Drew Brees - NO – At Rodgers’ level at home, but his yardage (7.5 YPA) and touchdown (4.6% TD/Att) rate stats are barely above league average on the road.

4. Tom Brady - NE – Turns 35 this season, but the offense around him is even better than a year ago when he put up a 47:16 TD:INT ratio.

5. Matthew Stafford - DET – Don’t be surprised if Stafford takes a step back with his team calling more run plays and so many other top quarterbacks racking up fantasy points with their legs. He only scrambled 13 times last season.

6. Michael Vick - PHI – 26 of his 40 passing touchdowns have come on the road over the last two seasons. Additionally, he scored on just 1.3 percent of his carries in 2011 after putting up a 9.3 percent mark in 2010. That will regress in 2012. Expect top-five production when he’s healthy.

7. Tony Romo - DAL – Touchdown, yardage, and interception rate stats were all better in 2011, which led to a strong bounce back from an injury-plagued 2010 campaign. Romo tends to throw a lot more touchdowns at home than on the road, but also suffers a few extra interceptions on home turf.

8. Eli Manning - NYG – It might surprise you that his touchdown rate and completion percentage dropped from 2010 to 2011, but his overall production was better thanks to deeper throws combined with a substantial decrease in interceptions and a sizeable increase in YAC from his receivers.

9. Peyton Manning - DEN – A product of the dome in Indianapolis? Not exactly. Manning has a 32:18 TD:INT ratio at home, compared to 40:16 on the road over his last two seasons.

10. Philip Rivers - SD – Rivers took a lot of criticism last year, but he wasn’t as bad as you think. When you take out the impact of drops, his completion percentage has been either 75 or 76 percent each of the last four seasons. Recovery from a poor 13:12 TD:INT ratio on the road (was a combined 47:19 the previous three seasons) will lead to better fantasy production in 2012.

Running Backs

1. Arian Foster - HST – He’s scored 33 total touchdowns in 31 games over the last two seasons. In 15 games last year, Foster saw 22-plus carries nine times and was targeted five or more times on nine occasions. His career 4.8 yards-per-carry mark is even more impressive when you consider that he only has a pair of 45-plus yard runs.

2. LeSean McCoy - PHI – The 2011 breakout season for McCoy came despite a drop in both yards-per-carry (5.1 to 4.8) and YAC/Att (3.0 to 2.5). He saw 12 percent of the Eagles’ targets, which is a drop from 17 percent in 2010. He did, however, see a boost in carries and scored a ridiculous 85 percent of the team’s rushing touchdowns (up from 37 percent in 2010).

3. Ray Rice - BLT – Rice doubled his rushing touchdown total from 2010 with 12 in 2011. He racked up five 50-yard runs after combining for seven the previous three seasons. Rice has handled 17-plus percent of Baltimore’s targets and 56-plus percent of the carries each of the last three seasons. He was targeted, at least, seven times in eight of Baltimore’s first 10 games last season, but saw more than six only once in the team’s final eight affairs.

4. Ryan Mathews - SD – A whopping 29 percent of Philip Rivers’ throws were directed at Chargers’ running backs last season (13 percent of which were directed at gone-and-not-replaced Mike Tolbert). Mathews was targeted, at least, four times in nine of his 14 games in 2011. He improved his YAC/Att from 2.8 to 3.2, which helped his YPC jump to a dominant 4.9.

5. Chris Johnson - TEN – Johnson scored on 1.5 percent of his carries in 2011 after not falling under 3.4 percent each of the previous three seasons. His 4.0 YPC and 2.1 YAC/Att were also lows over the same time span. Johnson failed to pull off a 50-yard run after managing nine over the previous three seasons. He’s seen, at least, 13 percent of Tennessee’s targets each of the last four years.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX – Jones-Drew carried the ball fewer than 17 times only once during the 2011 season. After averaging 2.7 targets-per-game during the first 10 weeks of 2011, Jones-Drew averaged 4.8 the rest of the way. He was responsible for an unsustainable 89 percent of the team’s rushing scores. The 4.7 YPC mark he put up was his highest over the last four seasons and that came despite a slight drop in YAC/Att.

7. Jamaal Charles - KC – Charles’ 6.1 career YPC is the best of all time for a back with 500-plus carries. He saw no fewer than nine carries in every game of the 2010 season. From Week 5 on during that same season, he averaged 4.3 targets-per-game.

8. Darren McFadden - OAK – McFadden has eclipsed 113 carries only once over the last four seasons, but is averaging 4.8 YPC on those runs. A poor 3.4 YPC in 2009 was offset by 5.2 and 5.4 marks over the last two seasons. McFadden carried the ball more than 14 times and averaged 3.5 targets in six full games last season. Extrapolated over 16 games, his 2011 season would’ve ended with 293 carries for 1,584 yards, 56 receptions for 454 yards, and 13 total touchdowns.

9. Trent Richardson - CLV – In eight games where he was healthy enough to play more than half the snaps last season, Peyton Hillis – an inferior talent to Richardson – averaged 18 carries and 3.5 targets-per-game. Under the same parameters in 2010, Hillis averaged 18 carries and 4.5 targets-per-game. Richardson will step into a very similar role and should be even more efficient.

10. Steven Jackson - SL – Jackson has seen, at least, 65 percent of the carries and 11 percent of the targets for the Rams over the last four years. Additionally, he’s been responsible for 67-plus percent of the team’s rushing scores in each of those seasons. Jackson averaged 19.4 carries and 4.3 targets-per-game in the 13 complete games he played in 2011. His 4.4 YPC was his highest mark over the last four years.

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson - DET – Johnson was targeted fewer than eight times in just six of 17 games during the 2011 season. “Megatron” has been responsible for 22-plus percent of the Lion’s targets each of the last four years and 41-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns three of the last four seasons.

2. Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ – In 16 games last season, Fitzgerald was targeted fewer than seven times only twice and reached double digits on seven occasions. He’s seen 26-plus percent of the Cardinals’ targets each of the last four years and hasn’t scored fewer than 38 percent of the receiving touchdowns during the same span. Fitzgerald has averaged seven touchdowns over the last two seasons after racking up 15 in 2009 and 19 in 2008.

3. Andre Johnson - HST – Johnson had scored either eight or nine touchdowns each of the past three seasons before an injury-shortened 2011 season in which he was on pace for, you guessed it, eight touchdowns (extrapolated using complete games played). In the six full games Johnson played in 2011, he averaged 9.5 targets-per-game, which was just behind his 10.1 average from 2010.

4. Greg Jennings - GB – Unlike the first three players on this list, who see a majority of their snaps out wide, Jennings saw just under half his snaps in the slot a year ago. That wasn’t typical for Jennings, but it resulted in an impressive catch rate just under 70 percent. He saw no less than 21 percent of the Packers’ targets during the 2008-10 seasons and would’ve been right around 22 percent in 2011 if not for an injury that cost him three games.

5. A.J. Green - CIN – As a rookie during the 2011 season, Green was one of the league’s most-utilized wide receivers, handling just under a quarter of Cincinnati’s targets. He saw 7.7 targets-per-game and was thrown at seven-plus times in 10 of his 16 games.

6. Hakeem Nicks - NYG – On a per-game basis, Nicks saw just under 30 percent of the Giants’ targets in 2010, but that figure fell to 25 percent in 2011 thank to the emergence of Victor Cruz. Still, Nicks saw seven-plus targets in 14 of the 19 games he appeared in during the 2011 season. He’s still an elite option despite the foot injury.

7. Roddy White - ATL – Over Atlanta’s final eight games of the 2011 season, White enjoyed double-digit targets seven times. Overall, he was targeted on 30 percent of Matt Ryan’s throws and has been over 30 percent four years in a row. Julio Jones’ emergence led to a smaller cut of the team’s receiving touchdowns (28 percent, compared to no lower than 38 percent each of the previous three seasons), but he still scored eight times in 17 games.

8. Julio Jones - ATL – Jones was a poster boy for regression in 2011, failing to score his first NFL touchdown until Week 9 before going on to finding pay dirt eight times in his last nine games. In the 14 games Jones appeared in, he saw 20 percent of Atlanta’s targets and reached double-digits three times. He plays almost exclusively on the outside, but three of his seven targets from the slot resulted in a touchdown.

9. Mike Wallace - PIT – Wallace was the target on 22 percent of the Steelers’ throws and has scored, at least, 36 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns each of the last two seasons. Despite the emergence of Antonio Brown, Wallace saw 8.3 targets-per-game during the last four games of 2011.

10. Victor Cruz - NYG – Cruz’s breakout 2011 season saw him appear in the max 20 games an NFL player can participate in during one season. Despite not playing much the first two weeks, he saw 22 percent of Eli Manning’s targets on the year – an average of 7.6 per game. Cruz plays from the slot quite often, as shown by the fact that 115 of his 151 targets (76 percent) and eight of his 10 touchdowns (80 percent) last season came while lined up inside.

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham - NO – Graham lined up as a wide receiver on over half his snaps in 2011. Although most of his targets came while lined up in the slot, only one of his 14 touchdowns came from that location. In 18 games last season, Graham was never targeted fewer than seven times and saw double-digit targets on seven occasions. His consistency keeps him ahead of Gronkowski.

2. Rob Gronkowski - NE – Gronkowski was responsible for 42 percent of the Patriots’ receiving touchdowns in 2011. He enjoyed double-digit targets five times in 19 games, but also fewer than six targets six times. Gronkowski has scored 31 times in 36 career games.

3. Antonio Gates - SD – Despite missing three games, Gates saw 16 percent of the Chargers’ targets last season, averaging 20 percent when he was active. He has accounted for no less than 27 percent of San Diego’s receiving touchdowns over the last three seasons. Six of Gates’ seven touchdowns last season came while lined up in the slot.

4. Aaron Hernandez - NE – Hernandez saw 10-plus targets in four of New England’s final six games last season. He lined up as an in-line tight end only 29 percent of the time and spent another eight percent in the backfield. Seven of his nine touchdowns came while lined up with his hand in the dirt, however.

5. Jason Witten - DAL – Witten was targeted 40 times over Dallas’ first four games of 2011 before averaging 6.2 the rest of the way. He was targeted in the double-digits three times on the year and all three came before Week 9. After seeing exactly 23 percent of the team’s targets three years in a row, Witten handled 21 percent in 2011.

6. Vernon Davis - SF – Davis averaged 4.5 targets-per-game during Weeks 1-10 last season, but saw 7.1 the rest of the way. Over the last three seasons, he’s been responsible for no less than 37 percent of the team’s receiving touchdowns in a given season. That includes 45 percent in 2011.

7. Jermichael Finley - GB – Finley averaged exactly five targets-per-game during the first 11 games of 2011 before seeing 7.3 per-game in the final six affairs. His only two double-digit target games came after Week 12. Finley saw 17 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ targets last season. His extrapolated numbers in 2010 and 2009 showed him on pace for 18 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Six of Finley’s eight touchdowns came while lined up as a wide receiver.

8. Fred Davis - WAS – Prior to a four-game suspension, Davis had seen 21 percent of the Redskins’ targets, which worked out to exactly seven per game. He averaged an impressive 7.8 yards after the catch on 38 receptions while lined up with his hand in the dirt.

9. Tony Gonzalez - ATL – Gonzalez lines up with his hand in the dirt about two-thirds of the time, but was only targeted on seven percent of those snaps in 2011. That’s compared to seeing a Matt Ryan target on 21 percent of his slot snaps. In each of his three seasons with the Falcons, Gonzalez has seen, at least, 19 percent of the targets and has scored 21-plus percent of the receiving touchdowns.

10. Jacob Tamme - DEN – Tamme played, at least, half the snaps with Peyton Manning in 10 games back in 2010. In those games, he averaged 9.4 targets-per-game, which worked out to 24 percent of Manning’s throws. With the Colts, Tamme played with his hand in the dirt about three-quarters of the time.