Roddy White
For the purposes of looking at Roddy White, we'll use two receivers from the recent past in our comparisons. Both Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne are reasonably close to White in terms of production at comparable ages and also in terms of size. White, Wayne and Holt are all medium sized receivers, closer to the 200 pound range.
Let's look at these three receivers in the same way that we looked at the Andre Johnson-similar receivers.
Roddy White, Age 25 -- Present
Age 25, 16 Games, 30 Receptions, 506 Yards, 16.9 Y/R, 0 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1202 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1382 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 85 Receptions, 1153 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 11 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1389 Yards, 12.1 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1296 Yards, 13 Y/R, 8 TD
Torry Holt, Age 25 -- End of Career
Age 25, 16 Games, 81 Receptions, 1363 Yards, 16.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 91 Receptions, 1302 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 117 Receptions, 1696 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 12 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 94 Receptions, 1372 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 29, 14 Games, 102 Receptions, 1331 Yards, 13 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1188 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1189 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 64 Receptions, 796 Yards, 12.4 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 33, 15 Games, 51 Receptions, 722 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 0 TD
Reggie Wayne, Age 25 -- Present
Age 25, 16 Games, 68 Receptions, 838 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 77 Receptions, 1210 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 12 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1055 Yards, 12.7 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 86 Receptions, 1310 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 104 Receptions, 1510 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1145 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1264 Yards, 12.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1355 Yards, 12.2 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 960 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 4 TD
These comparisons offer some interesting insights. Holt was an amazingly consistent receiver almost from the time he entered the league until the time he turned 30. After age 30, it's not that Holt wasn't a productive receiver, it's just that by the standard he set prior to that point, he wasn't nearly as good. The range that you could expect Holt to perform at went from 1300-1600 yards in his prime to being in the range of 800-1200 yards after he turned 30.
Reggie Wayne's career has been a little different than Holt's. Wayne took longer to become a number one receiver, likely due to Marvin Harrison's entrenched role with the Colts. But then Wayne has also stayed productive at a later age than Holt did. Wayne had a career high in receptions at age 32. But his dropoff last year looked dramatic. Some amount of Wayne's drop in production was no doubt due to the loss of Peyton Manning, but Wayne also didn't look like he had the ability to separate last year.
For purposes of evaluating White, one thing that I think is worth paying attention to is each receiver's yards per catch. When receivers pass 30 years old and then end up down in the 11-13 yards per catch range, I do think it is a sign that they are having increasing difficulty getting open downfield, and they also aren't able to do as much with the ball in terms of yards after the catch. White is slipping into that 12-13 yards per catch range.
Wes Welker
Welker is the most difficult player to find historical comparisons for. This is probably somewhat related to the same reason that Welker went undrafted after having a 3,000 receiving yard career at Texas Tech. Much of what NFL teams do is engage in pattern matching and Welker doesn't fit any particular pattern of success for NFL wide receivers. He is his own outlier.
Welker's 2011 season was a career year and finding comparables for it are almost impossible. Wide receivers who might be close statistically aren't close to Welker in size. Wide receivers who are close in size aren't close statistically. Marvin Harrison is somewhat close in size and statistics, but a quick glance at either receiver shows that they aren't very similar players. Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Brett Perriman had one season that was close to Welker's 2011, but the rest of Perriman's career wasn't close to Welker.
Welker may actually be a case where analysis of historical comparables leads us to say something that isn't really part of the conversation in fantasy football punditry. I don't know. We don't know any more after looking at a list of Welker comparable receivers because there really aren't any. Perhaps a reasonable method for forecasting Welker's 2012 season would be to look at the years that he's played in New England and then project a slight drop (not a dramatic drop) from the average of the production he usually compiles each year.
Summary
While the comparable players we've looked at haven't given us any concrete conclusions on when our subject players might see an age related drop in production, they have hopefully informed our sense that an age related drop becomes more likely each year that a player is in the league after 30. We have a range to expect a drop and that range is probably from 30 to 33, with a drop becoming increasingly likely each year. When you're drafting your fantasy team this year, perhaps a reasonable way to think about a potential age related decline for Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Wes Welker is this: "It probably won't happen this year, but it might."
I think there is another consideration that should also be added to this conversation. In many cases a top wide receiver is going to remain productive from a fantasy standpoint even as their value to their team might be declining. Older players can't get open as easily. They are hopefully accounting for loss of athleticism with better route running. But in many cases they are playing against defensive backs who are 10 years younger. Older players might require more targets to compile the same amount of production that they accounted for when they were younger. From a fantasy standpoint that is fine for us if we own that player. But from the standpoint of the team that they play on, it's less than ideal.
What can happen then is that the team can start looking at their other options. Consider that when New England cut Randy Moss loose in 2010, they did it amid a chorus of taunts from other teams that Moss had lost a step. While New England had largely stood up for Moss during that chorus of taunts, they were actually throwing the ball elsewhere. When Chad Ochocinco had what was, for him, a terrible season in 2008, Cincinnati had another option in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. When Marvin Harrison experienced his sharp decline, the Colts had another option in Reggie Wayne.
Perhaps a good question to ask regarding this year's older wide receivers is whether they might continue to get the ball even if they've lost a step. Basically, do their teams have any other options? On this count, Andre Johnson certainly seems to be in the best situation. Of the wide receivers we've looked at, he is the one who seems to be his team's only option. Roddy White is in the unfortunate situation of entering the later stages in his career while his team also has one of the NFL's freakish physical specimens in Julio Jones. It's not difficult at all to imagine that if White is not an efficient option for the Falcons, they could increasingly turn to Julio Jones. Wes Welker is in a situation that is not as clear as Andre Johnson, and not as muddy as Roddy White. While the Patriots now have a host of other options, their willingness to use the franchise tag on him speaks to their desire to utilize him this year. Also, while New England has the league's best tight end duo along with the newly added Brandon Lloyd, none fill the same role that Welker does. You could also probably convince me that Welker, who ran a 4.65 40 yard dash coming out of college, never required elite athleticism for his production and he might be the best suited to continue to be productive as his athleticism diminishes.
The last point that I might make here is that being drafted in the top 10 at a position in fantasy football is often a vote of confidence in a player's safety as an option. It's a sign we think they're low risk. But as players pass the age of 30, they are increasingly a higher risk. From 2007 to 2011, there were 34 wide receivers who were less than 30 years old and were also drafted in the top 10 at the position. Of those receivers, only five of them averaged less than nine standard fantasy points during the season they were drafted in the top 10 at wide receiver. But of the 16 wide receivers who were 30 or older, six of them scored less than nine fantasy points per game. You can think of nine fantasy points as being the "over/under" on whether you're going to be legitimately disappointed in your fantasy WR1.
Scoring Less Than Nine Fantasy Points Per Game (Top 10 ADP Among WRs)
30 or Older: 37.5%
Under 30: 14.7%
While we don't have any concrete evidence that any of the receivers we're looking at will fall off this year, it does look like the over 30 group of wide receivers lacks a basic property that we look for when drafting the top 10 at a fantasy position. They lack safety.
If I had to bet what kind of season each of these receivers are going to have, I would probably bet that they will have seasons close to their career averages, but slightly worse. But then there is also the risk that they might run into a wall that some players run into when they pass 30 years old. If that does happen, you'll be sick that you drafted them.
This article is a guest post by Frank DuPont. You can follow him on Twitter here. You can also check out his new book at this link.
Are This Year's Top Wide Receivers Risky Because They're Old?
A quick check of wide receiver ADP reveals that several of the top wide receivers this year are getting up there in age. Consider that Andre Johnson, Roddy White, and Wes Welker will all be 31 at some point during the upcoming season and they're all being drafted in the top 10 among wide receivers. The age of 31 may not seem that old, but in the past five years only 11 times have WRs been 31 or older while also being drafted among the top 10 players at that position. Of those 11 times, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens account for about 5 of those instances.
The relationship that age has to your fantasy draft isn’t especially clear cut. We know that wide receivers probably peak in their abilities when they're in their mid-20s. But from that point until the receiver hits 33 or 34, the dropoff isn't dramatic. A wide receiver might lose 20% of his per game production in that time. Consider that a wide receiver that experienced a peak season of 15 standard fantasy points per game could reasonably still be expected to score perhaps 12 fantasy points per game in their 30s. Also, being over 30 didn’t prevent Moss or Owens from having career years in 2007 and 2005 respectively.
Things become a little messier when you consider that the 20% that I mention above is just an average. Each player is probably going to age a little bit differently and their decline might not be a straight line.
For instance, Marvin Harrison was 35 when he was the third wide receiver off the board in 2007. He was coming off a 1300 yard, 12 touchdown season. Harrison only appeared in 5 games in 2007 and over the entire rest of his career he only had 700 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Despite being the second wide receiver to come off draft boards in 2010, Moss seemed to hit something of a wall at 33 years old. He played on three NFL teams that year and probably hit your waiver wire at some point in the season.
Chad Ochocinco was chosen as the ninth wide receiver in fantasy drafts in 2008 when he was 30 years old. Ochocinco compiled just over 500 yards that year, breaking his run of 6 consecutive seasons where he had at least 1100 yards. He would have something of a bounce back season in 2010, although his production that year occurred mostly in just a few big games.
The point in mentioning these seasons where perceived top 10 players at their position fell off is to illustrate that sometimes the previous season doesn’t give us any clue that the drop is coming. It’s also true that age can catch up to even the best players. Perhaps the best way to assess the risk of whether this year’s crop of older receivers might have some downside risk is by looking at players that they might be similar to and see if those similar players stayed productive into their 30s.
Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson is similar on a number of levels to three wide receivers from the recent past. Keyshawn Johnson, Jimmy Smith (JAX), and Michael Irvin are all similar to Johnson on various measures. They are all big receivers. Irvin is the smallest of the group and he was regarded as a big receiver for his era. Also, as we'll see in the following tables, they are also all comparable in terms of their production. First let’s look at Andre Johnson from age 25 to present:
Andre Johnson, Age 25 -- Present
Age 25, 16 Games, 103 Receptions, 1147 Yards, 11.1 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 26, 9 Games, 60 Receptions, 851 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1575 Yards, 13.7 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 101 Receptions, 1569 Yards, 15.5 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 29, 13 Games, 86 Receptions, 1216 Yards, 14.1 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 30, 7 Games, 33 Receptions, 492 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 2 TD
Then, here are the stats for Michael Irvin, Keyshawn Johnson, and Jimmy Smith.
Michael Irvin, Age 25 -- End of Career
Age 25, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1523 Yards, 16.4 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 78 Receptions, 1396 Yards, 17.9 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1330 Yards, 15.1 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 79 Receptions, 1241 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1603 Yards, 14.4 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 11 Games, 64 Receptions, 962 Yards, 15 Y/R, 2 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 1180 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 74 Receptions, 1057 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 1 TD
Age 33, 4 Games, 10 Receptions, 167 Yards, 16.7 Y/R, 3 TD
Keyshawn Johnson, Age 25 -- End of Career
Age 25, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 963 Yards, 13.8 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1131 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 89 Receptions, 1170 Yards, 13.1 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 71 Receptions, 874 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 29, 15 Games, 106 Receptions, 1266 Yards, 11.9 Y/R, 1 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 76 Receptions, 1088 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 31, 10 Games, 45 Receptions, 600 Yards, 13.3 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 981 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 71 Receptions, 839 Yards, 11.8 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 34, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 815 Yards, 11.6 Y/R, 4 TD
Jimmy Smith, Age 25 -- End of Career
Age 26, 16 Games, 22 Receptions, 288 Yards, 13.1 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1244 Yards, 15 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1324 Yards, 16.1 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 78 Receptions, 1182 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 116 Receptions, 1636 Yards, 14.1 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 31, 15 Games, 91 Receptions, 1213 Yards, 13.3 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 112 Receptions, 1373 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 8 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 80 Receptions, 1027 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 34, 12 Games, 54 Receptions, 805 Yards, 14.9 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 35, 16 Games, 74 Receptions, 1172 Yards, 15.8 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 36, 16 Games, 70 Receptions, 1023 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 6 TD
Does a review of the careers of these comparable players offer any insight into what we might expect from Andre Johnson?
First, Jimmy Smith remained productive until he left the NFL. While you can see that Smith had his last season of better than 1200 yards at age 32, he still had three more 1,000 yard seasons before he retired. But it's worth noting that Smith's 2001 (age 32) season was the last one that he could be reasonably described as being the equivalent of a fantasy WR1.
Keyshawn Johnson is similar to Andre Johnson, but of the comparison group, Keyshawn's career is easily the worst. However, before we dismiss the comparison between Keyshawn and Andre Johnson, it's useful to remember that Keyshawn really was regarded as a top talent. He was the number one overall pick in his draft class. When he was traded from the Jets to the Buccaneers he garnered two first round picks in the trade. He no doubt suffered at least in part from being on Tampa Bay teams that weren't very good at throwing the ball. During the 2000 season Keyshawn caught just under 900 yards receiving, although his yardage was about 31% of the Tampa Bay total that year. However, for our purposes we are primarily interested in the point where Keyshawn dropped off in the level of production that he had established earlier in his career.
Keyshawn actually never experienced a dramatic fall off. He did have one season that was shortened due to his feud with Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden. But otherwise Keyshawn's falloff was gradual. He went from being an 1100 yard, 8 touchdown type receiver to gradually providing maybe 80 or 90% of that production. Probably the only real line of demarcation that exists in Keyshawn's stat line is that after age 32 he went from averaging 13 yards per reception to about 11 yards per reception.
Finally, Irvin is also a good comparison for Johnson. Like Johnson, Irvin was the undisputed number one receiving option on his team for most of his career. In terms of Irvin's decline as a player, the 1997 season is probably the last time that Irvin was in the top 10 in the NFL at the position. He ranked in the top 10 in both yards and touchdowns that year. During the 1998 season, when Irvin was 32 years old, he caught just one touchdown.
Roddy White
For the purposes of looking at Roddy White, we'll use two receivers from the recent past in our comparisons. Both Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne are reasonably close to White in terms of production at comparable ages and also in terms of size. White, Wayne and Holt are all medium sized receivers, closer to the 200 pound range.
Let's look at these three receivers in the same way that we looked at the Andre Johnson-similar receivers.
Roddy White, Age 25 -- Present
Age 25, 16 Games, 30 Receptions, 506 Yards, 16.9 Y/R, 0 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1202 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 88 Receptions, 1382 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 85 Receptions, 1153 Yards, 13.6 Y/R, 11 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 115 Receptions, 1389 Yards, 12.1 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1296 Yards, 13 Y/R, 8 TD
Torry Holt, Age 25 -- End of Career
Age 25, 16 Games, 81 Receptions, 1363 Yards, 16.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 91 Receptions, 1302 Yards, 14.3 Y/R, 4 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 117 Receptions, 1696 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 12 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 94 Receptions, 1372 Yards, 14.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 29, 14 Games, 102 Receptions, 1331 Yards, 13 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1188 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 93 Receptions, 1189 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 64 Receptions, 796 Yards, 12.4 Y/R, 3 TD
Age 33, 15 Games, 51 Receptions, 722 Yards, 14.2 Y/R, 0 TD
Reggie Wayne, Age 25 -- Present
Age 25, 16 Games, 68 Receptions, 838 Yards, 12.3 Y/R, 7 TD
Age 26, 16 Games, 77 Receptions, 1210 Yards, 15.7 Y/R, 12 TD
Age 27, 16 Games, 83 Receptions, 1055 Yards, 12.7 Y/R, 5 TD
Age 28, 16 Games, 86 Receptions, 1310 Yards, 15.2 Y/R, 9 TD
Age 29, 16 Games, 104 Receptions, 1510 Yards, 14.5 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 30, 16 Games, 82 Receptions, 1145 Yards, 14 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 31, 16 Games, 100 Receptions, 1264 Yards, 12.6 Y/R, 10 TD
Age 32, 16 Games, 111 Receptions, 1355 Yards, 12.2 Y/R, 6 TD
Age 33, 16 Games, 75 Receptions, 960 Yards, 12.8 Y/R, 4 TD
These comparisons offer some interesting insights. Holt was an amazingly consistent receiver almost from the time he entered the league until the time he turned 30. After age 30, it's not that Holt wasn't a productive receiver, it's just that by the standard he set prior to that point, he wasn't nearly as good. The range that you could expect Holt to perform at went from 1300-1600 yards in his prime to being in the range of 800-1200 yards after he turned 30.
Reggie Wayne's career has been a little different than Holt's. Wayne took longer to become a number one receiver, likely due to Marvin Harrison's entrenched role with the Colts. But then Wayne has also stayed productive at a later age than Holt did. Wayne had a career high in receptions at age 32. But his dropoff last year looked dramatic. Some amount of Wayne's drop in production was no doubt due to the loss of Peyton Manning, but Wayne also didn't look like he had the ability to separate last year.
For purposes of evaluating White, one thing that I think is worth paying attention to is each receiver's yards per catch. When receivers pass 30 years old and then end up down in the 11-13 yards per catch range, I do think it is a sign that they are having increasing difficulty getting open downfield, and they also aren't able to do as much with the ball in terms of yards after the catch. White is slipping into that 12-13 yards per catch range.
Wes Welker
Welker is the most difficult player to find historical comparisons for. This is probably somewhat related to the same reason that Welker went undrafted after having a 3,000 receiving yard career at Texas Tech. Much of what NFL teams do is engage in pattern matching and Welker doesn't fit any particular pattern of success for NFL wide receivers. He is his own outlier.
Welker's 2011 season was a career year and finding comparables for it are almost impossible. Wide receivers who might be close statistically aren't close to Welker in size. Wide receivers who are close in size aren't close statistically. Marvin Harrison is somewhat close in size and statistics, but a quick glance at either receiver shows that they aren't very similar players. Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Brett Perriman had one season that was close to Welker's 2011, but the rest of Perriman's career wasn't close to Welker.
Welker may actually be a case where analysis of historical comparables leads us to say something that isn't really part of the conversation in fantasy football punditry. I don't know. We don't know any more after looking at a list of Welker comparable receivers because there really aren't any. Perhaps a reasonable method for forecasting Welker's 2012 season would be to look at the years that he's played in New England and then project a slight drop (not a dramatic drop) from the average of the production he usually compiles each year.
Summary
While the comparable players we've looked at haven't given us any concrete conclusions on when our subject players might see an age related drop in production, they have hopefully informed our sense that an age related drop becomes more likely each year that a player is in the league after 30. We have a range to expect a drop and that range is probably from 30 to 33, with a drop becoming increasingly likely each year. When you're drafting your fantasy team this year, perhaps a reasonable way to think about a potential age related decline for Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Wes Welker is this: "It probably won't happen this year, but it might."
I think there is another consideration that should also be added to this conversation. In many cases a top wide receiver is going to remain productive from a fantasy standpoint even as their value to their team might be declining. Older players can't get open as easily. They are hopefully accounting for loss of athleticism with better route running. But in many cases they are playing against defensive backs who are 10 years younger. Older players might require more targets to compile the same amount of production that they accounted for when they were younger. From a fantasy standpoint that is fine for us if we own that player. But from the standpoint of the team that they play on, it's less than ideal.
What can happen then is that the team can start looking at their other options. Consider that when New England cut Randy Moss loose in 2010, they did it amid a chorus of taunts from other teams that Moss had lost a step. While New England had largely stood up for Moss during that chorus of taunts, they were actually throwing the ball elsewhere. When Chad Ochocinco had what was, for him, a terrible season in 2008, Cincinnati had another option in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. When Marvin Harrison experienced his sharp decline, the Colts had another option in Reggie Wayne.
Perhaps a good question to ask regarding this year's older wide receivers is whether they might continue to get the ball even if they've lost a step. Basically, do their teams have any other options? On this count, Andre Johnson certainly seems to be in the best situation. Of the wide receivers we've looked at, he is the one who seems to be his team's only option. Roddy White is in the unfortunate situation of entering the later stages in his career while his team also has one of the NFL's freakish physical specimens in Julio Jones. It's not difficult at all to imagine that if White is not an efficient option for the Falcons, they could increasingly turn to Julio Jones. Wes Welker is in a situation that is not as clear as Andre Johnson, and not as muddy as Roddy White. While the Patriots now have a host of other options, their willingness to use the franchise tag on him speaks to their desire to utilize him this year. Also, while New England has the league's best tight end duo along with the newly added Brandon Lloyd, none fill the same role that Welker does. You could also probably convince me that Welker, who ran a 4.65 40 yard dash coming out of college, never required elite athleticism for his production and he might be the best suited to continue to be productive as his athleticism diminishes.
The last point that I might make here is that being drafted in the top 10 at a position in fantasy football is often a vote of confidence in a player's safety as an option. It's a sign we think they're low risk. But as players pass the age of 30, they are increasingly a higher risk. From 2007 to 2011, there were 34 wide receivers who were less than 30 years old and were also drafted in the top 10 at the position. Of those receivers, only five of them averaged less than nine standard fantasy points during the season they were drafted in the top 10 at wide receiver. But of the 16 wide receivers who were 30 or older, six of them scored less than nine fantasy points per game. You can think of nine fantasy points as being the "over/under" on whether you're going to be legitimately disappointed in your fantasy WR1.
Scoring Less Than Nine Fantasy Points Per Game (Top 10 ADP Among WRs)
30 or Older: 37.5%
Under 30: 14.7%
While we don't have any concrete evidence that any of the receivers we're looking at will fall off this year, it does look like the over 30 group of wide receivers lacks a basic property that we look for when drafting the top 10 at a fantasy position. They lack safety.
If I had to bet what kind of season each of these receivers are going to have, I would probably bet that they will have seasons close to their career averages, but slightly worse. But then there is also the risk that they might run into a wall that some players run into when they pass 30 years old. If that does happen, you'll be sick that you drafted them.