You know Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling and Mike Clay. I, sir, am no @evansilva, @ChrisWesseling or @MikeClayNFL. That doesn’t stop me from getting paid to try to be, however.
Come for the surprises (man this guy who isn’t Wess or Evan really loves receivers who get sued!), stay for the dated cultural references and delight in the fact that this list is evidence that, yes, fantasy football is finally right around the corner.
One more thing while I’ve got you — no list would be complete without some shameless self-promotion: follow me on Twitter @RotoPat. Now to the fun.
Quarterbacks
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers — It’s hard to put Rodgers’ 2011 into words, but consider: 39. That’s how many more touchdowns Rodgers threw than interceptions. That total would have been ninth all time had it simply been his raw touchdown total, and not his TD/INT differential. Alas, his actual total of 45 — compiled in 15 games, no less — was the fifth most in the 91-year history of the NFL. Like the Beatles in the late-60s, Rodgers should only get better in 2012.
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions — With Stafford, it’s simple. In his first full NFL season, he threw for the fifth most yards in league history. Think about that. If anyone is going to knock Rodgers off his pedestal, it’s Clayton Kershaw’s childhood friend.
3. Drew Brees, Saints — With Brees, don’t focus on the fact that he’s lost his coach and one of his top receivers (Robert Meachem). Focus on the fact that 40 percent of the 5,000-yard passing campaigns in NFL history have been posted by Brees in the past four seasons. He’ll get his contract, and he’ll get his numbers.
4. Tom Brady, Patriots — Occupy Tom Brady? We might as well, because Brady is a one-percenter who only got richer this offseason. With underrated deep threat Brandon Lloyd now in the fold alongside Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Brady should face little resistance on his way toward another monster campaign.
5. Cam Newton, Panthers — Let me take you back in time to a place called June 2011. It was then that some were mulling the question “Cam or Gabbert?” One year later, Newton is preparing to follow up the greatest rookie season in league history, while Blaine Gabbert is readying for a fight with Chad Henne. A weak(ish) receiver corps may be the only thing holding Newton back from No. 1 overall status.
6. Eli Manning, Giants — Don’t call it a breakout. Manning’s 2011 was the culmination of years of slow and steady progress. Now with the league’s top receiver duo and a late-game pedigree that would make Joe Montana blush, don’t be surprised if Manning doubles down on his monster ‘11 and ends up closer to 5,000 than 4,000 yards for the second straight season.
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers — We’ll never know if Rivers was playing hurt during his dismal first eight games last season. What we do know is that he was much closer to the Rivers of old in his final eight, posting a 96.8 QB rating to go along with a 2,155 yards and a 16:6 TD:INT ratio. The loss of Vincent Jackson will sting, but an infusion of youth at both receiver and tight end should leave Rivers better off in the long run.
8. Tony Romo, Cowboys — While you dog Romo, he just laughs and remembers two things: Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Throw in Jason Witten, climate-controlled Cowboys Stadium and a creative play-calling HC in Jason Garrett, and you have the recipe for yet another 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown campaign.
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers — Hampered by injuries, Big Ben never quite got in rhythm in 2011. His biggest blow came in the offseason, however, where he lost aggressive, pass happy OC Bruce Arians. Bad news. Flash forward four months, though, and in Arians’ place is Todd Haley, who may be even more aggressive. (Although it's true Haley likes to run more than Arians.) With a healthy Emmanuel Sanders set to rejoin Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and form the league’s most imposing trio of deep threats, Big Ben should have little problem posting 4,000 yards and an 8.0 YPA.
10. Michael Vick, Eagles — Evan and Wess? Two dudes who are vastly smarter than me. They have correctly pointed out that Vick has as much upside as any player in the game. I agree. But with fantasy football often ending up a game of injury roulette, why roll the dice on Vick at a position positively overflowing with elite talent? Vick will light it up when he’s on the field, but at age 32 behind an offensive line adjusting to the loss of All-Pro Jason Peters, will he always be there? I won’t take the chance.
Just Missed: Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler.
Running Backs
1. Arian Foster, Texans — The game’s most dangerous runner is also its most complete back. And, oh yeah, he’s still only 25 with fewer than 1,000 career touches to his name. Fantasy’s top overall player.
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles — McCoy drew more than one comparison to Barry Sanders last season. Yes, they were loose, but far from insane. Shady isn’t just shady, he’s a one man thunder and lightning duo. He'll earn every penny of his new deal in the Eagles’ explosive offense, at least in 2012.
3. Ray Rice, Ravens — Durable and versatile: there isn’t a sweeter combination for fantasy running backs. Rice doesn’t have quite the flash of Foster or McCoy, but that won’t matter as he’s rolling toward another top-five fantasy campaign.
4. Ryan Mathews, Chargers — If we could turn off injuries Madden style, Mathews might be No. 1 overall. Alas, he’ll have to settle for being 2012’s most obvious candidate to make the leap from “on the verge” to “elite.”
5. Chris Johnson, Titans — CJwhateverK is trying something new this offseason: staying in shape. Gasp! With the Titans boasting an improved line and one of the game’s most dynamic stables of young passing-game talent, Johnson should have little trouble bouncing back from his dismal 2011 and reminding us why he was a consensus top-five pick each of the past two seasons.
6. Matt Forte, Bears — One of the safer bets at a position that’s more unpredictable than Jim Irsay’s Twitter feed, Forte will have to contend with the arrival of short-yardage sponge Michael Bush and passing-game plaything Brandon Marshall. Neither should stop him from racking up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage for the fifth straight season, however.
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders — You know the DMC story well, but you should also know this: new Raiders OC Greg Knapp is one of the run-happiest dudes in football. DMC is an injury risk, but heck, who isn’t these days? As much upside as anybody in the league.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars — We thought the mileage would finally catch up with MJD last season, but everyone’s favorite human-sized bowling ball proved even more resilient than previously thought. The needle is going to approach “E” at some point, however, and it could very easily be in 2012.
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs — As Charles completes his recovery from a torn ACL, it’s easy to forget that his 2010 was literally historic — his 6.4 yards per carry were second all-time only to Jim Brown’s 1963 campaign. Of course, ACL injuries are particularly scary for players who rely on speed. That being said, Charles is far enough removed from shredding his knee that, at the very least, he should be ready to do a pretty good impression of the player who rushed for 1,467 yards in 2010.
10. Trent Richardson, Browns — What we know: Richardson is a physical freak set to inherit an every-down role as a rookie. What we don’t: what the heck he’ll look like in the NFL. Richardson has the skills and situation to climb much higher on this list, but until we actually see it, why take him ahead of any of these fine nine?
Just Missed: Adrian Peterson, Beanie Wells, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch.
You know Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling and Mike Clay. I, sir, am no @evansilva, @ChrisWesseling or @MikeClayNFL. That doesn’t stop me from getting paid to try to be, however.
Come for the surprises (man this guy who isn’t Wess or Evan really loves receivers who get sued!), stay for the dated cultural references and delight in the fact that this list is evidence that, yes, fantasy football is finally right around the corner.
One more thing while I’ve got you — no list would be complete without some shameless self-promotion: follow me on Twitter @RotoPat. Now to the fun.
Quarterbacks
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers — It’s hard to put Rodgers’ 2011 into words, but consider: 39. That’s how many more touchdowns Rodgers threw than interceptions. That total would have been ninth all time had it simply been his raw touchdown total, and not his TD/INT differential. Alas, his actual total of 45 — compiled in 15 games, no less — was the fifth most in the 91-year history of the NFL. Like the Beatles in the late-60s, Rodgers should only get better in 2012.
2. Matthew Stafford, Lions — With Stafford, it’s simple. In his first full NFL season, he threw for the fifth most yards in league history. Think about that. If anyone is going to knock Rodgers off his pedestal, it’s Clayton Kershaw’s childhood friend.
3. Drew Brees, Saints — With Brees, don’t focus on the fact that he’s lost his coach and one of his top receivers (Robert Meachem). Focus on the fact that 40 percent of the 5,000-yard passing campaigns in NFL history have been posted by Brees in the past four seasons. He’ll get his contract, and he’ll get his numbers.
4. Tom Brady, Patriots — Occupy Tom Brady? We might as well, because Brady is a one-percenter who only got richer this offseason. With underrated deep threat Brandon Lloyd now in the fold alongside Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Brady should face little resistance on his way toward another monster campaign.
5. Cam Newton, Panthers — Let me take you back in time to a place called June 2011. It was then that some were mulling the question “Cam or Gabbert?” One year later, Newton is preparing to follow up the greatest rookie season in league history, while Blaine Gabbert is readying for a fight with Chad Henne. A weak(ish) receiver corps may be the only thing holding Newton back from No. 1 overall status.
6. Eli Manning, Giants — Don’t call it a breakout. Manning’s 2011 was the culmination of years of slow and steady progress. Now with the league’s top receiver duo and a late-game pedigree that would make Joe Montana blush, don’t be surprised if Manning doubles down on his monster ‘11 and ends up closer to 5,000 than 4,000 yards for the second straight season.
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers — We’ll never know if Rivers was playing hurt during his dismal first eight games last season. What we do know is that he was much closer to the Rivers of old in his final eight, posting a 96.8 QB rating to go along with a 2,155 yards and a 16:6 TD:INT ratio. The loss of Vincent Jackson will sting, but an infusion of youth at both receiver and tight end should leave Rivers better off in the long run.
8. Tony Romo, Cowboys — While you dog Romo, he just laughs and remembers two things: Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Throw in Jason Witten, climate-controlled Cowboys Stadium and a creative play-calling HC in Jason Garrett, and you have the recipe for yet another 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown campaign.
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers — Hampered by injuries, Big Ben never quite got in rhythm in 2011. His biggest blow came in the offseason, however, where he lost aggressive, pass happy OC Bruce Arians. Bad news. Flash forward four months, though, and in Arians’ place is Todd Haley, who may be even more aggressive. (Although it's true Haley likes to run more than Arians.) With a healthy Emmanuel Sanders set to rejoin Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and form the league’s most imposing trio of deep threats, Big Ben should have little problem posting 4,000 yards and an 8.0 YPA.
10. Michael Vick, Eagles — Evan and Wess? Two dudes who are vastly smarter than me. They have correctly pointed out that Vick has as much upside as any player in the game. I agree. But with fantasy football often ending up a game of injury roulette, why roll the dice on Vick at a position positively overflowing with elite talent? Vick will light it up when he’s on the field, but at age 32 behind an offensive line adjusting to the loss of All-Pro Jason Peters, will he always be there? I won’t take the chance.
Just Missed: Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler.
Running Backs
1. Arian Foster, Texans — The game’s most dangerous runner is also its most complete back. And, oh yeah, he’s still only 25 with fewer than 1,000 career touches to his name. Fantasy’s top overall player.
2. LeSean McCoy, Eagles — McCoy drew more than one comparison to Barry Sanders last season. Yes, they were loose, but far from insane. Shady isn’t just shady, he’s a one man thunder and lightning duo. He'll earn every penny of his new deal in the Eagles’ explosive offense, at least in 2012.
3. Ray Rice, Ravens — Durable and versatile: there isn’t a sweeter combination for fantasy running backs. Rice doesn’t have quite the flash of Foster or McCoy, but that won’t matter as he’s rolling toward another top-five fantasy campaign.
4. Ryan Mathews, Chargers — If we could turn off injuries Madden style, Mathews might be No. 1 overall. Alas, he’ll have to settle for being 2012’s most obvious candidate to make the leap from “on the verge” to “elite.”
5. Chris Johnson, Titans — CJwhateverK is trying something new this offseason: staying in shape. Gasp! With the Titans boasting an improved line and one of the game’s most dynamic stables of young passing-game talent, Johnson should have little trouble bouncing back from his dismal 2011 and reminding us why he was a consensus top-five pick each of the past two seasons.
6. Matt Forte, Bears — One of the safer bets at a position that’s more unpredictable than Jim Irsay’s Twitter feed, Forte will have to contend with the arrival of short-yardage sponge Michael Bush and passing-game plaything Brandon Marshall. Neither should stop him from racking up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage for the fifth straight season, however.
7. Darren McFadden, Raiders — You know the DMC story well, but you should also know this: new Raiders OC Greg Knapp is one of the run-happiest dudes in football. DMC is an injury risk, but heck, who isn’t these days? As much upside as anybody in the league.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars — We thought the mileage would finally catch up with MJD last season, but everyone’s favorite human-sized bowling ball proved even more resilient than previously thought. The needle is going to approach “E” at some point, however, and it could very easily be in 2012.
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs — As Charles completes his recovery from a torn ACL, it’s easy to forget that his 2010 was literally historic — his 6.4 yards per carry were second all-time only to Jim Brown’s 1963 campaign. Of course, ACL injuries are particularly scary for players who rely on speed. That being said, Charles is far enough removed from shredding his knee that, at the very least, he should be ready to do a pretty good impression of the player who rushed for 1,467 yards in 2010.
10. Trent Richardson, Browns — What we know: Richardson is a physical freak set to inherit an every-down role as a rookie. What we don’t: what the heck he’ll look like in the NFL. Richardson has the skills and situation to climb much higher on this list, but until we actually see it, why take him ahead of any of these fine nine?
Just Missed: Adrian Peterson, Beanie Wells, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch.
Wide Receiver
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions — Is “he’s nicknamed after a ‘sentient robotic lifeform from the planet Cybertron’” enough for you? If not, how about the fact that he’s in his prime, has the game’s top young quarterback slinging him the ball and posted the most receiving yards of any wideout since 2003 last season? The only choice at No. 1.
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals — Lost in the hand-wringing over the lousy quarterbacks who were throwing Fitz the ball last season was the fact that he posted his third 1,400-yard season in five years. Yes, Fitz is starting to get up in years and still has to deal with Dumb and Dumber under center, but he remains as dominant of a talent as there is in football. An infinitely safe pick.
3. Dez Bryant, Cowboys — You could look at Dez Bryant’s 2011 one of two ways: 1) He completely took over at least one half every week. 2) He completely disappeared for at least one half every week. Dez’s consistency left much to be desired last season, but let’s not forget this was a 22-year-old wideout who’d never had an offseason dominating 50 percent of every game he played in. And, oh, yeah, he posted a 63/928/9 line. Fantasy sports is all about spotting bold leaps before they happen, and Bryant’s will come this fall.
4. Andre Johnson, Texans — A pertinent fact? Johnson has as many surgeries as (regular season) touchdowns since Week 1 last season. He was as dominant as ever when on the field in 2011, however, and that should remain the case in 2012. But Johnson’s suddenly murky injury history is the reason he’s No. 4 and not No. 2.
5. Hakeem Nicks, Giants — Speaking of murk, how about Nicks’ injury situation? The only thing Nicks, the Giants and the media seem to agree on is that he will be ready for Week 1. As Nicks is one of the game’s most explosive young talents playing for one of its best quarterbacks in one of its best offenses, that’s good enough for me.
6. A.J. Green, Bengals — Question: what do you call a 6-foot-4, 207 pound receiver who caught 65 passes for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns five months after being the No. 4 overall pick of the draft? Oh, he also became the first rookie receiver to make the Pro Bowl since 2003. Answer: the next big thing. Forget Andy Dalton’s arm strength limitations or the Bengals’ brutal schedule. Green is the real deal.
7. Mike Wallace, Steelers — After exploding out of the gate last season, Wallace caught just 29 passes for 393 yards in Pittsburgh’s final eight games. It’s worth noting, but pass up on “60 Minutes” at your own peril. Wallace was dealing with an injured QB for much of that stretch, and new OC Todd Haley has a history of getting his No. 1 receivers huge numbers. Wallace will be elite in 2012.
8. Wes Welker, Patriots — Just the facts, ma’am: Welker has caught at least 110 passes for 1,165 yards four of the past five seasons, with the exception being 2010, where he was rounding back to full health following a torn ACL. Yes, Welker now has to worry about Brandon Lloyd in addition to Gronk and Hernandez, but in a game of chance, Welker posting huge numbers — particularly in PPR leagues — is a veritable certainty.
9. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs — “Underrated” is an overrated concept in professional sports, but how Bowe — who’s averaged 76.5 catches for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns the past two seasons — doesn’t get more love is beyond me. Tyler Palko was the man throwing him the ball for four of those games for crying out loud. Still only 27, Bowe is just getting warmed up.
10. Julio Jones, Falcons — What does breathtaking physicality get you? 54 catches for 959 yards as a rookie despite the fact that you played in just 13 games and had the league’s most targeted receiver as a teammate. Jones’ potential is nearly unlimited, and he should tap considerably more of it as a sophomore.
Just Missed: Jordy Nelson, Steve Smith, Victor Cruz and Roddy White.
Tight Ends
1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots — Redskins CB Josh Wilson said it best: Gronk is a gargoyle. He’s also the most dominant player at his position, and despite the pass-catching exploits of Jimmy Graham, it isn’t even all that close. An unstoppable force who’s rarely seen an immovable object he couldn’t destroy.
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints — Aside from “Warren Buffet’s grandson,” there might not be a more enviable title in America than “Drew Brees’ teacher’s pet.” Deservedly so, that’s what Graham became in 2011, which, by the way, was only his third season playing football at the NCAA or above level. 2012 should be beautiful.
3. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots — A receiver (and sometimes running back) stuck in a tight end’s body, Hernandez was 31st in the league in receiving yards last season despite appearing in only 14 games and being the second-string tight end on his own team. We know Hernandez’s actual role is more complicated that, but the numbers shouldn’t be this season: they’ll be elite.
4. Jermichael Finley, Packers — Although Finley had 33 percent more drops (12) than touchdowns (8) last season, he was still fantasy’s No. 5 overall tight end. Eager to prove himself after a disappointing campaign, Finley will be elite in Green Bay’s Greatest Show on Tundra.
5. Fred Davis, Redskins — For 12 games last season, Davis dominated on grass. The problem is, he’d smoke it afterward. With his drug issues in the past and Robert Griffin III in his present, however, Davis’ future — including 2012 — is incredibly bright.
6. Vernon Davis, 49ers — A match made in heaven with Jim Harbaugh’s offense, Davis’ furious 2011 finish (including the playoffs, 28 catches for 536 yards and five touchdowns in his final five games) wasn’t an outlier, but a harbinger of things to come.
7. Antonio Gates, Chargers — Gates is getting old, yes, but he’s also as wise as any player in the league. He’s no longer the physical specimen he once was, but certain to be featured with Vincent Jackson now residing on the Gulf Coast, Gates should have at least one more year of high-end TE1 productivity left inside his increasingly creaky body.
8. Jason Witten, Cowboys — Like Gates, Witten is getting old. It tends to happen in a hurry in the NFL, but with Laurent Robinson out of the picture in Big D, Witten should get enough looks in the end zone and red zone to hold TE1 value for at least one more year.
9. Jacob Tamme, Broncos — One of the biggest wildcards in all of fantasy, don’t be surprised if Tamme runs wild as Peyton Manning’s slot man in Denver. He has the hands and situation to surpass 90 catches and 1,000 yards if things break right.
10. Dustin Keller, Jets — Keller won’t be a sexy choice this summer, but as a safety valve in one of the league’s most plodding offenses, he’ll be one of the Jets’ top pass catchers, whether they want him to be or not. A safe, late-round choice at a position many view as an afterthought.
Just Missed: Brandon Pettigrew, Greg Olsen, Jared Cook and Martellus Bennett.