Re-Watching Julio, Cam, Locker

Finishing touches are currently being put on the 2012 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide. One of the more arduous tasks that goes into the guide's creation is writing the Player Profiles. We've already written up 60 quarterbacks, 75 running backs, 100 receivers, and 50 tight ends.

Here's an example of a Player Profile from our 2011 Draft Guide:

Matthew Stafford

2010: Star-crossed Stafford's luck ran out again in his second NFL season with twin throwing shoulder injuries, the first suffered on a Week 1 Julius Peppers sack and the second in Week 9. Both were Grade 3 separations that led to year-ending surgery. Stafford was terrific in between, lighting up Washington for four TDs in Week 8 and Darrelle Revis' Jets for 240 yards, two scores, and no picks. Stafford has the strongest arm in football and is highly aggressive, sometimes to a fault. Lions coordinator Scott Linehan's offense is shotgun- and pass-heavy, and a fantasy owner's dream. Only the Colts and Saints threw more often in 2010. Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton's passing statistics combined to rank as the would-be No. 7 fantasy QB.

What's Changed: Stafford had surgery on January 21 and was letting bombs rip by May player-only workouts. He's still just 23 years old, younger than rookies Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton. The Lions used two second-round picks on skill position players, Titus Young to stretch defenses vertically and Mikel Leshoure to kill the clock in fourth quarters. The "risk" with Stafford, of course, is that he's missed 19 games through two NFL seasons. Teammate Zack Follett even described Stafford as a "China Doll" in the winter, though Follett later retracted the statement.

Outlook: It's simple. If you think Stafford is going to get injured again, don't draft him. As a fantasy pick, he's for owners looking to hit 500-foot homeruns. Stafford has the talent, weapons, and offensive system to be this year's No. 1 fantasy QB. He'll bust if he goes back on the shelf.

Some background

This year, I wrote up all of the quarterbacks and most of the wide receivers. Chris Wesseling did the running backs. Mike Clay handled tight ends. In order to better prepare for my assignments, I went back and watched two games on three particular players who possess lofty fantasy football ceilings and will surely be the subject of frequent pre-draft debate.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones

For game review, I chose Jones' two most heavily-targeted appearances. They were Week 4 at Seattle (15 targets) and Week 16 at New Orleans (14). This worked out nicely because it gave me a chance to examine one early-season and one late-season game. Jones was a rookie in 2011, so it forced me to keep an eye out for improvements over the course of the year.

The first play that really stuck out was a 45-yard bomb down the left sideline, with Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner in tight coverage. Matt Ryan's underthrown deep ball died a bit at the end of its trajectory. Yet Jones contorted his body back to the quarterback to secure Ryan's pass in a two-handed basket while maintaining full stride throughout his route. Body control along the sideline can be a difference-making trait for a deep threat. And that play suggests Jones has it in spades.

After watching the two games, my mind wandered back to Jones' days at Alabama. He wasn't a deep threat for the Crimson Tide. Jones was primarily a possession receiver, doing his damage in the short to intermediate and relying on run-after-catch physicality to rack up yards. The Falcons used Jones as a vertical, split end receiver, and he's playing much faster than he did in college. He's already a complete NFL player. I think he compares favorably to early-career Terrell Owens.

Other quick takeaways from the Falcons game reviews:

** Michael Turner had more short-area burst early in the season than he did against New Orleans in Week 16. Statistics support the notion that Turner faded in the second half of the year.

** Roddy White was largely a possession receiver in both games, exploiting defensive backs' "off" coverage and reeling in short catches. Jones was the Falcons' deep threat, although he made more plays at the intermediate level in the late-season game than he did in the early-year contest.

** I don't think Matt Ryan's arm strength will prove a major deterrent for his long-term outlook, but it's about league average -- and no better -- among entrenched NFL starters. His velocity on 17- to 22-yard digs can be inconsistent, and Ryan's intermediate passes have a tendency to float.

** Jacquizz Rodgers is 5-foot-6, 196, so he's probably going to need some special qualities in order to make it as more than a change-of-pace back in the NFL. Rodgers ran a pretty wheel route before hauling in a 31-yard touchdown against Carolina, but his run skills looked ordinary to me.

Finishing touches are currently being put on the 2012 Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide. One of the more arduous tasks that goes into the guide's creation is writing the Player Profiles. We've already written up 60 quarterbacks, 75 running backs, 100 receivers, and 50 tight ends.

Here's an example of a Player Profile from our 2011 Draft Guide:

Matthew Stafford

2010: Star-crossed Stafford's luck ran out again in his second NFL season with twin throwing shoulder injuries, the first suffered on a Week 1 Julius Peppers sack and the second in Week 9. Both were Grade 3 separations that led to year-ending surgery. Stafford was terrific in between, lighting up Washington for four TDs in Week 8 and Darrelle Revis' Jets for 240 yards, two scores, and no picks. Stafford has the strongest arm in football and is highly aggressive, sometimes to a fault. Lions coordinator Scott Linehan's offense is shotgun- and pass-heavy, and a fantasy owner's dream. Only the Colts and Saints threw more often in 2010. Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton's passing statistics combined to rank as the would-be No. 7 fantasy QB.

What's Changed: Stafford had surgery on January 21 and was letting bombs rip by May player-only workouts. He's still just 23 years old, younger than rookies Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton. The Lions used two second-round picks on skill position players, Titus Young to stretch defenses vertically and Mikel Leshoure to kill the clock in fourth quarters. The "risk" with Stafford, of course, is that he's missed 19 games through two NFL seasons. Teammate Zack Follett even described Stafford as a "China Doll" in the winter, though Follett later retracted the statement.

Outlook: It's simple. If you think Stafford is going to get injured again, don't draft him. As a fantasy pick, he's for owners looking to hit 500-foot homeruns. Stafford has the talent, weapons, and offensive system to be this year's No. 1 fantasy QB. He'll bust if he goes back on the shelf.

Some background

This year, I wrote up all of the quarterbacks and most of the wide receivers. Chris Wesseling did the running backs. Mike Clay handled tight ends. In order to better prepare for my assignments, I went back and watched two games on three particular players who possess lofty fantasy football ceilings and will surely be the subject of frequent pre-draft debate.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones

For game review, I chose Jones' two most heavily-targeted appearances. They were Week 4 at Seattle (15 targets) and Week 16 at New Orleans (14). This worked out nicely because it gave me a chance to examine one early-season and one late-season game. Jones was a rookie in 2011, so it forced me to keep an eye out for improvements over the course of the year.

The first play that really stuck out was a 45-yard bomb down the left sideline, with Seahawks RCB Brandon Browner in tight coverage. Matt Ryan's underthrown deep ball died a bit at the end of its trajectory. Yet Jones contorted his body back to the quarterback to secure Ryan's pass in a two-handed basket while maintaining full stride throughout his route. Body control along the sideline can be a difference-making trait for a deep threat. And that play suggests Jones has it in spades.

After watching the two games, my mind wandered back to Jones' days at Alabama. He wasn't a deep threat for the Crimson Tide. Jones was primarily a possession receiver, doing his damage in the short to intermediate and relying on run-after-catch physicality to rack up yards. The Falcons used Jones as a vertical, split end receiver, and he's playing much faster than he did in college. He's already a complete NFL player. I think he compares favorably to early-career Terrell Owens.

Other quick takeaways from the Falcons game reviews:

** Michael Turner had more short-area burst early in the season than he did against New Orleans in Week 16. Statistics support the notion that Turner faded in the second half of the year.

** Roddy White was largely a possession receiver in both games, exploiting defensive backs' "off" coverage and reeling in short catches. Jones was the Falcons' deep threat, although he made more plays at the intermediate level in the late-season game than he did in the early-year contest.

** I don't think Matt Ryan's arm strength will prove a major deterrent for his long-term outlook, but it's about league average -- and no better -- among entrenched NFL starters. His velocity on 17- to 22-yard digs can be inconsistent, and Ryan's intermediate passes have a tendency to float.

** Jacquizz Rodgers is 5-foot-6, 196, so he's probably going to need some special qualities in order to make it as more than a change-of-pace back in the NFL. Rodgers ran a pretty wheel route before hauling in a 31-yard touchdown against Carolina, but his run skills looked ordinary to me.

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton

Newton shredded secondaries early in the season, passing for 290 or more yards four times in the first eight games. He didn't hit 290 in any of the final eight. So I picked two late-season games -- Week 14 versus Atlanta and Week 16 versus Tampa Bay -- to see what happened.

The first thing that stood out was Carolina's easy-to-watch offense. OC Rob Chudzinski ran a ton of read-option, with Cam in the shotgun making a split-second decision to either give the football to DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart, or run it himself. On the vast majority of read-option plays, Newton let his back do the dirty work. Whether it was Williams, Stewart, or Newton taking the carry, the Panthers broke off many chunk-yardage plays. This wasn't a boring running offense.

Newton has an absolute rocket arm, and it's his greatest attribute. It's the trait that instills the fear of god into defenses -- not his running ability. Cam isn't the most accurate thrower in the short to intermediate, but he tosses a powerful, picturesque deep ball. And Newton isn't the least bit afraid to challenge deep. He'll rip it long whenever receivers get open. His eyes are constantly downfield.

I think Newton's passing stats tailed off down the stretch because Steve Smith, Legedu Naanee, and Brandon LaFell simply weren't creating enough separation down the football field. Opponents were deathly afraid of Smith, using bracket coverage to keep him contained. Naanee was the weakest skill-position player on the field in both games I reviewed. A stiff, straight-line guy with little post-catch wiggle and zero vertical tools, Naanee was the only difficult-to-watch Panther.

What is clear: Newton is a dominant, game-breaking talent. Even when his wide receivers failed to create bomb opportunities, Newton's playmaking ability shined through. He accounted for six all-purpose touchdowns and 548 total yards in the two games, and Carolina scored 71 points. Newton is Roethlisberger-like with his ability to break free from two-arm tackles and fire off rocket balls after quickly setting his feet. There isn't a more exciting young player in football right now.

More Panthers takeaways:

** Even late in the season at age 32, Smith was playing on springs. He torched (mostly) Dunta Robinson for 125 yards on six catches in the Falcons game and ripped off 23 yards on a reverse against Tampa. There's plenty of liveliness left in Smith's legs.

** DeAngelo Williams looked better than I expected. Stewart has developed into a superior back, but Williams is still a high-quality runner, particularly when he reaches the perimeter.

** Losing Naanee should be addition by subtraction in Carolina. LaFell enters the starting lineup, and the Panthers will insert 6-foot-3, 216-pound speedster David Gettis as the No. 3 receiver.

** I don't think LaFell is quite gifted enough to emerge as a top-25 NFL wideout, but he can haul in passes Naanee couldn't and appears to be mastering Chudzinski's scheme. LaFell played the slot and outside against Atlanta and Tampa. His large catch radius was evident on an errant pass by Newton in the Bucs game. LaFell extended himself high above his head to secure the throw, then beat everyone to the house for a 91-yard score. He's also comfortable making plays in traffic.

Titans quarterback Jake Locker

Locker didn't start any games as a rookie, but he played extensively off the bench in three. I watched two (Week 11 at Atlanta, Week 14 vs. New Orleans) and saw an exciting young QB with a rare combination of tools. I also saw a passer who struggled with accuracy outside the numbers.

The scouting report might give you déjà vu, because it's awfully similar to the "book" on Locker coming out of Washington. He possesses a power arm and can make any throw with ideal velocity. Locker loses nothing off his fastball when he's outside the pocket. He rips it on the run.

He's also a threat for big gains on the ground. Locker has legitimately dangerous speed and some elusiveness as a scrambler. He isn't easy to tackle. Inside the pocket, I thought Locker stood tall and was cool for the most part. He loved to challenge deep, and wasn't out there taking checkdowns in the Falcons game, even with the defense playing prevent sitting on a lead.

Overall, Locker's ball placement was erratic, and that led to stalled drives in the Saints game. His down-to-down accuracy was head-scratchingly shaky. Locker would look like an elite passer on one play, and Kyle Boller on the next.

My comparison to Locker is a young Donovan McNabb. His accuracy is an issue, but he has natural playmaking ability. The Titans' coaching staff seems to believe Locker's ball placement can improve with technical changes. But if it doesn't, can Locker's god-given skill level compensate?

More Titans takeaways:

** Matt Hasselbeck started both games I watched. (I didn't fast forward to Locker in relief.) The difference between the two was stark. While Hasselbeck still stands comfortably in the pocket amid oncoming pass rushers, his throws lacked any hint of zip. In the Falcons game, Atlanta defenders got their hands on seemingly every other Hasselbeck pass because they floated through the air and were easy to jump. Late in the season at least, Hasselbeck was a short-ball thrower only.

** I remember writing late last season that I thought Chris Johnson's struggles were on him. He didn't seem to be playing hard. After re-watching the Saints and Falcons games, I'll stand by that evaluation. Johnson ran soft and accelerated only when he saw clear lanes. He was tackled too easily. He was also clearly frustrated by the inability of Tennessee's offensive line to open holes. Johnson wasn’t out there giving full effort snap by snap.

** A few things to remember on Locker: He played without a running game in his three relief appearances. He also didn't have Kenny Britt. Nate Washington was Locker's best receiver.

Feedback

I hope these game reviews provided some insight as to the skill sets and talent levels of these three rising second-year players. Each of them possesses an immense amount of fantasy potential. If you are interested in more write-ups like this, let me know on Twitter.