NFL training camps open in 16 days. While plenty will change as practices and preseason games commence, I wanted to unveil a Fantasy Top 150 before the first 2012 full-contact work begins.
The following rankings are for standard leagues, although I make many references to PPR. They also pay close mind to Average Draft Position. This is essentially the way I believe a pre-training camp fantasy draft should go. I discuss strategy throughout the explanations. Make sure you read the first three rounds to understand my reasoning for various rankings, before deciding I'm crazy.
I believe strongly that fantasy drafts are all about value. You should take the best player at every opportunity. But I also believe you need to understand position strengths and weaknesses. Entering drafts, you need to know that quarterback and receiver are deep. Running back is as shallow as it's ever been. Tight end is extremely top heavy, and there are only nine tight ends with whom I'd feel remotely comfortable as my starter. Tight end is not deep this season.
Some of the ideas here are unconventional -- I'm well aware. There is a perception that you must draft a quarterback considered to be among the top four or five entering the season, and that you can wait on tight ends. I'd vehemently challenge both of those popular notions.
Bottom line: Form your own opinions. These are mine.
First Round
1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster is a premier, versatile tailback playing in the league's run-heaviest offense. He's a 25-year-old workhorse averaging 4.70 yards per career carry. Losses at right guard and tackle are not a concern because Houston's zone scheme has proven so reliable.
2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 2nd overall) -- While McCoy's carry (273) and touchdown (20) totals may fall a bit, a likely increase in receptions will help him compensate. Two years younger than Foster, McCoy is the only legitimate challenger for the top overall fantasy spot. Foster gets the ball more.
3. Ryan Mathews (ADP: 5th overall) -- If Chargers coach Norv Turner has his way, Mathews will lead the NFL in touches. Sheer talent is another feather in Mathews' cap, as he boasts elite run skills and passing-game value that has improved by leaps and bounds since his rookie season.
4. Ray Rice (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rice is a strong candidate for the third overall pick, but Mathews gets the edge because he offers superior upside in a better offense. The top-four selections here should be locked in for all drafts, regardless of format. Running backs are at a premium this year.
5. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Easily the biggest week-to-week difference maker among receivers, Johnson plays in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed quarterback. He's the only wideout who should be markered into the first round of fantasy drafts.
6. Trent Richardson (ADP: 12th overall) -- Maurice Jones-Drew led the league in rushing yards in the NFL's worst offense last year. Cleveland's "supporting cast" is a minor obstacle. Richardson offers elite talent and workload, and is every bit worth a mid to late first-round fantasy selection.
7. Darren McFadden (ADP: 10th overall) -- DMC is similar to Foster, McCoy, Mathews, Rice, and Richardson in that he projects as an every-down back and possesses every running trait we seek in RB1s. Durability has been a seemingly insurmountable obstacle with a career high of 13 games played.
8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 15th overall) -- I was not high on Murray coming out of Oklahoma, but a recent interview with NFL Films producer Greg Cosell sold me that he's worth a first-round fantasy pick. Murray projects as a high-volume back in a high-octane offense, and those are very hard to find.
9. Jimmy Graham (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Times are changing in fantasy football, and acquiring a difference-making tight end needs to be a priority on draft day. Receiver and quarterback are as deep as ever, but there are only two tight ends capable of tilting fantasy scoring on a weekly basis.
10. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- I gave Graham the edge because he's the clear No. 1 option in the Saints' passing game, and more likely to improve on last year's stats. Gronkowski is an unstoppable red-zone machine in his own right, and a good annual bet to lead the NFL in receiving TDs.
11. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Charles' ACL tear would be more of a concern if it occurred later last season. He'll be nearly 12 months removed by Week 1, and I like his chances of rediscovering past form at age 25. While Peyton Hillis may vulture a handful of goal-line scores, Charles' workload shouldn't be a huge problem because the Chiefs plan to run as much as anyone.
12. Chris Johnson (ADP: 7th overall) -- I have watched Chris Johnson's 2011 games over and over, and I can say with conviction that he struggled because he wasn't playing hard. Are you willing to draft a guy who quit after getting paid? I'd lean toward balking at C.J.'s current ADP.
Second Round
13. Matt Forte (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- Forte's possible camp holdout isn't as much of a fantasy concern as would be a timeshare with Michael Bush. Forte projects as the Bears' surefire lead back, but Bush will likely swipe all goal-line carries while also cutting into Forte's open-field looks.
14. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: 13th overall) -- Lynch should be red-flagged for a breakout season in a contract year and history of offseason conditioning problems, but he plays in a tried-and-true zone-blocking scheme and is set up for 300 carries. That's tough to pass up in the second round.
15. Andre Johnson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- There's no reason to believe Johnson's missed time the past two seasons is a long-term concern, and he returns as the heavy favorite for targets in an offense that commands eight defenders in the box. Johnson is my No. 2 overall fantasy receiver.
16. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 14th overall) -- Fitzgerald is right on Johnson's heels for No. 2 wideout ranking after a 1,411-yard season amid musical chairs at quarterback. The signal-caller quandary probably won't be rectified, but Fitz maximizes his targets with dominant hands and big-play skills.
17. Julio Jones (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Indications out of Atlanta are that new OC Dirk Koetter will feature Jones in one of the NFL's most pass-happy offenses. Jones is a better vertical and run-after-catch threat than Roddy White, and will surpass him as Matt Ryan's top target this year.
18. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: 9th overall) -- I don't think MJD can repeat his 2011 stats in the NFL's worst offense -- and I don't think he can come close. Jones-Drew's workloads are also piling up with three straight seasons of 299 carries, and last year's league-high 343 alongside declining big-play ability. I'd rather draft Rashad Jennings in the 12th round than MJD in the first.
19. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Defenses will game plan to take Green away in his second year, and I'm not sold on Andy Dalton as any more than a game manager after his second-half swoon. Green will face a ton of bracket coverage. Hopefully, target volume will compensate.
20. Doug Martin (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Many fantasy owners are sleeping on Martin, despite the fact that he was drafted to replace LeGarrette Blount as the lead back in a run-first offense. You may want to wait a round if his ADP holds, but Martin gets a second-round fantasy grade from me.
21. Mike Wallace (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Wallace will play the X receiver spot that contributed to monster seasons from Fitzgerald and Dwayne Bowe in Todd Haley's Arizona and K.C. offenses. Antonio Brown will be the Anquan Boldin/Steve Breaston. Wallace is a sneaky candidate for a career high in targets because Haley will quickly realize his strengths are in the passing game.
22. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Nicks' Average Draft Position may have been bogged down by the initial scare of his broken right foot. But the injury won't threaten his Week 1 availability, and the 24-year-old will reclaim clear-cut No. 1 status in Eli Manning's receiver corps this season.
23. Steven Jackson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Jackson gets a solid top-25 grade as the Rams plan to skew heavily toward the run while nursing a quarterback shaken by early-career hits back to form. S-Jax will open the year seeing 25 touches per game. Be sure to 'cuff him with Isaiah Pead.
24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- That's right. I couldn't bring myself to draft Peterson before the final pick of the second round. I'm sure he'll go earlier in most drafts. While I don't quite feel comfortable betting against Peterson, there's simply zero precedent for successful next-year returns from an injury of his severity. Adam Levitan did a great job of breaking it down.
Third Round
25. Cam Newton (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I analyzed every QB for the Rotoworld Draft Guide, writing each signal caller's profile, evaluating their 2011 seasons, and thoroughly examining the stats. And I wouldn't draft any of them before the third round. Fantasy drafts are about value, and there's no value in reaching for one of the deepest positions. I would take Cam at No. 25.
26. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 4th overall) -- Rodgers will probably be a first-round fantasy pick in the majority of drafts, but I think Newton will score more points than him with dominant arm talent and rushing ability. I love Aaron Rodgers, but he obviously won't be on any of my 2012 fantasy teams.
27. Tom Brady (ADP: 8th overall) -- Brady is my pick to lead the NFL in passing yards and TDs, but I could easily see Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Peyton Manning, and even Tony Romo or Matt Ryan doing that, too. Again: there's no value in a first- or second-round fantasy QB.
28. Michael Vick (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Based on my pre-camp Top 150 and current ADP data, Vick and Newton are the only two quarterbacks at whom I have a reasonable shot before the fifth round. And I'm fine with that. I like Newton to score more points than anyone in fantasy football this year, and Philly's passing game to rebound with a monster 2012 season.
29. Brandon Lloyd (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Remember the steady stream of glowing reports on Rob Gronkowski coming out of Foxboro last spring and summer? Lloyd is this year's version. While his Average Draft Position may allow patient fantasy leaguers to wait a round before pulling the trigger, Lloyd warrants a third-round fantasy grade with 2007 mini-Moss potential. He's going to feast on single coverage downfield while defenses key up to stop Gronk and Wes Welker.
30. Percy Harvin (ADP: Early 5th round) -- The favorite to lead all receivers in 2012 "touches," Harvin's stats soared after Christian Ponder's 2011 insertion. Harvin racked up 723 yards and seven TDs in the final seven weeks, and Ponder will be the Vikings' full-time starter this year.
31. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Thomas was playing streetball with Tim Tebow down the stretch last year, but his stats were video gamey. Prorated over 16 games, Thomas' 35/745/4 line in the final seven weeks would have led the NFL in receiving yards and finished second to Calvin Johnson in fantasy receiver scoring. Peyton Manning is now his quarterback.
32. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Dez dominated in first halves last year, then went in the tank in the final two quarters due to poor conditioning. In much better shape this season, Bryant is the best candidate in the NFL to unseat Calvin Johnson for the touchdown lead among receivers.
33. Steve Smith (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Receiver is fantasy's deepest position this season, but there are only 10-15 surefire every-week difference makers. Smith is among them, and he could improve on last year's numbers with 23-year-old Newton likely to take a step forward as a passer.
34. Fred Jackson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- F-Jax has enough juice left in his legs at 31 to stay ahead of C.J. Spiller, but the Bills will inevitably want their 2010 first-rounder more involved after the light flipped on down last season's stretch. Look for more of a timeshare in the Bills' backfield.
35. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Folks forget Maclin finished as the No. 13 fantasy receiver as a 22-year-old two seasons ago. Possessing a superior all-around game to DeSean Jackson, look for Maclin to emerge as Philadelphia's No. 1 receiver in a true breakout campaign.
36. Brandon Marshall (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Marshall led the league in targets in both of his full seasons with Jay Cutler in Denver (2007, 2008). He should resume flirting with 100 receptions, although Marshall's red-zone chops have always left a lot to be desired. I like him better in PPR.
Fourth Round
37. Greg Jennings (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I'm confident Jennings will reclaim No. 1 status from Jordy Nelson in Green Bay's receiver corps this year, but his top-25 ADP is quite high. Jennings is going ahead of A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Mike Wallace, and I like all three better than him.
38. Antonio Brown (ADP: Early 6th round) -- While Brown's 2011 second-half numbers are likely to prove his absolute ceiling, he has some potential to emerge as Pittsburgh's No. 1 receiver in the new offense. Brown offers better versatility than Wallace, making him more difficult to cover.
39. Matthew Stafford (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Stafford was last year's obvious QB steal, and I wouldn't count on him regressing much off his 2011 stats. I don't think the answer is to come back and draft Stafford, though. From a value perspective, you're better off finding this year's version.
40. Drew Brees (ADP: 11th overall) -- Brees is capable of putting up production as lofty as Brady and Rodgers and everyone else, but I think Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and even Ben Roethlisberger can put up those numbers, too. If you disagree with me, draft a quarterback in the first two rounds.
41. Miles Austin (ADP: Late 4th round) -- There is a consensus at Rotoworld that Dez Bryant will raise his game to WR1 levels as a third-year pro. Austin has always been a quality red-zone threat in his own right, though, and as a crisper route runner is a better bet for receptions than his more talented teammate. Bryant is the superior standard-league pick; Austin may still outdo him in PPR.
42. Antonio Gates (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- I admittedly opened the offseason down on Gates after remembering him labor through two seasons at less than 100 percent. I then went back and watched him late in the year, and Gates moved as well as he has in years. Finally healthy, he'll return as Philip Rivers' No. 1 option. I like him as the No. 3 tight end, behind Graham and Gronk.
43. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- We'd love to see what he could do with a legitimate quarterback. Bowe has finished as a top-20 fantasy receiver in each of his last three full seasons, despite dealing with Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Damon Huard, Tyler Thigpen, and in-season waiver claim Kyle Orton under center. An improved running game in K.C. could help him get open more.
44. Marques Colston (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Colston isn't a "sexy" pick anymore, but consider this: He finished as the No. 11 overall fantasy receiver last year despite 1) Being overtaken by Jimmy Graham as the Saints' top passing-game option, and 2) Missing two games. Colston also enjoyed his first surgery-free offseason since 2007. He's a solid fourth-rounder in all formats.
45. Roddy White (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- Frank DuPont put it well in his PPR Winning Strategy column for the 2012 Draft Guide: White is more appealing in points-per-reception than standard leagues this season. Look for Julio Jones to take over as Atlanta's top wideout in yards and TDs.
46. Jahvid Best (ADP: Late 6th round) -- I have a round-four fantasy "grade" on Best, but wouldn't take him before the fifth because of his current Average Draft Position. While the concussions are an obvious red flag, it's worth noting that Austin Collie and even Aaron Rodgers entered last season with similar concerns. Neither Collie nor Rodgers missed a single game due to injury.
47. Jordy Nelson (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Skilled enough to maintain WR2 production in Green Bay's offense, Nelson has little chance of repeating his off-the-charts 2011 efficiency. Nelson is a poster boy for owners who chase last year's numbers. He won't finish as the No. 2 wideout again.
48. Tony Romo (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Romo plays in an offense built to throw the football (elite tackles, poor interior offensive line) and is surrounded by top-shelf weaponry. He's been a starter for three full seasons, and in them never finished worse than No. 7 in quarterback scoring. A la Eli Manning in 2011, I think this will be the season Romo's game reaches new heights. Romo isn't considered an "elite" fantasy quarterback, but he's a serious candidate to outscore the entire field.
Fifth Round
49. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Continue to keep in mind Average Draft Position, but Finley is every bit as talented as the Grahams and Gronkowskis. And whereas Nelson can't possibly redo his outrageously error-free 2011 campaign, Finley enters 2012 from the opposite end of the spectrum. He's going to make people very happy as a fifth- or sixth-round fantasy pick.
50. Victor Cruz (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Cruz's 2011 season was similar to Nelson's in that he outscored a superior teammate, defying the odds because defenses were more concerned with New York's true "No. 1" receiver. These things tend to regress back to normal. Cruz returns as a strong fantasy WR2, but you're chasing uncatchable stats if you take him in the top three rounds.
51. Darren Sproles (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- I can see drafting Sproles in the first four rounds in a points-per-reception league or format that awards for return yardage. But he is unlikely to exceed 100 rushing attempts, and probably won't repeat his career-best 2011 touchdown efficiency.
52. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Entering the 2012 season, there are only 14 -- and no more than 16 -- tailbacks I'd characterize as surefire every-week starters. Plenty of owners will enter the fifth and sixth rounds of drafts with gaping running back holes even if they've picked for value. While Stewart plays in a timeshare, he can be counted on for 12-15 touches per game in an explosive offense. And he's dripping with talent. He's the cream of the "back-end RB2" crop.
53. Frank Gore (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Gore is overpriced at his current Average Draft Position because he's wearing down physically and San Francisco's backfield is headed directly for a committee. Kendall Hunter deserves a bigger role, LaMichael James has Sprolesian talents, and Brandon Jacobs should vulture goal-line scores. While Gore may open the season getting the ball 14-18 times a week, the 49ers' running game will likely evolve into a fantasy quagmire by midyear.
54. Aaron Hernandez (ADP: Early 6th round) -- He should be the Patriots' second most efficient receiver in 2012, behind Wes Welker. Defensive coordinators will spend practice weeks devising ways to take Gronk and Welker away from Brady. Hernandez may not see quite as many targets as last season (No. 8 among TEs) with Lloyd in Foxboro, but his final stats could still be similar.
55. Vernon Davis (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Finally grasping Jim Harbaugh's offense late last year, Davis exploded for 28 catches, 536 yards, and five touchdowns in the 49ers' final five games. The Niners' offseason receiver additions may cost Davis a target or two per week, but Randy Moss commands coverage. Expect Davis to be open more often and to live up to his ADP this season.
56. Kenny Britt (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Britt's recovery from two right knee surgeries needs to be monitored in camp, but he'll be every bit worth a fifth-round fantasy pick if he gets to September setback free. With background in the run-and-shoot, Titans playcaller Chris Palmer is a pass-first mind. And Tennessee's offense has explosive potential with Jake Locker likely to take over soon.
57. Roy Helu (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Helu carries "risk" as a projected committee back in a Shanahan offense, but he's the favorite to lead Washington's backfield in snaps and touches. With top-notch burst and passing-game skills, Helu will make himself difficult to keep off the field.
58. Wes Welker (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Much more of a PPR asset, the 31-year-old slot receiver wrapped up last season averaging 70.6 yards per game and 10.4 yards per reception in New England's final 11 contests -- numbers in line with Welker's true skill level. The Patriots' offense will be more vertical in 2012, leaning on Josh McDaniels favorite Lloyd downfield and less on an underneath checkdown target.
59. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Maclin shouldn't have trouble outscoring Jackson in fantasy points this season, but there's certainly potential for the margin to be small. Philly's pass game has major post-hype year upside. D-Jax's value is heavily slanted toward non-PPR leagues.
60. Eric Decker (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Demaryius Thomas offers a higher ceiling in yards and TDs, but Decker has been more of a "pro-style" receiver with route-running chops and plenty of natural tools in his own right. He's shaping up as a value pick, with Thomas going 25 spots earlier.
Sixth Round
61. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 8th round) -- You'll find many different opinions on Garcon, but one thing I can say with certainty: The Redskins will want to get him the rock early and often. Playing the "X" receiver position occupied by Andre Johnson in Kyle Shanahan's last offense and Brandon Marshall in Mike's, Garcon will be Robert Griffin III's featured, go-to receiver in a pass-first attack.
62. Peyton Manning (ADP: Early 6th round) -- My 2012 mindset on Manning is that his addition in Denver bodes well for Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Jacob Tamme, but perhaps less so for himself. I don't think he'll rack up pass attempts like he did for so many years in Indianapolis, and his health after four neck surgeries remains a question mark. I probably wouldn't draft him.
63. Beanie Wells (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- If you're drafting Wells around his current ADP, you're basically betting that Ryan Williams won't rediscover pre-patellar tear form and Wells' own knee will recover smoothly. I tend to like those odds. Williams hasn't been productive or healthy since 2009 -- his freshman year in college. In standard settings, Wells is an attractive mid-round RB2.
64. Matt Ryan (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- Ryan doesn't possess the god-given ability of Matthew Stafford, but his situation entering the season is somewhat similar to Stafford's at this time last year. Folks are down on Ryan after a relatively disappointing season, but post-hype appeal is strong with a new OC intent on opening up Atlanta's offense. Ryan has a 35-TD campaign in him.
65. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Johnson is taken relatively early by risk-averse drafters because he's viewed as a safe pick. While his role as a clear No. 1 offensive option is enticing, the receiver depth this year makes Johnson a value at no earlier than round six.
66. Denarius Moore (ADP: Late 7th round) -- In a standard league, Moore offers just as much production potential as the aforementioned Stevie Johnson, who finished last season with just over 1,000 yards and seven TDs. Moore is capable of that, and he can be had two rounds later.
67. Torrey Smith (ADP: Early 7th round) -- Smith is in the ballpark of Johnson and Moore, with a ceiling of around 1,100 yards and 6-8 TDs -- assuming everyone stays healthy. It's more evidence that you can wait until the late sixth or seventh round to grab a WR3 with a WR2 stat projection.
68. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Gerhart soaks up blocked yards and excels in the passing game. The Vikings have also hinted that he'll start over Adrian Peterson to open the year. Peterson will be prone to setbacks after rushing his recovery from two knee ligament tears, in addition to meniscus damage. Gerhart is a safe bet to outscore his ADP -- perhaps significantly.
69. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Williams has lost some burst since his 2008 career year, but he's still playing at a high enough level with a consistent enough role to provide low-end RB2/flex scoring. He'd also become a borderline RB1 if Jonathan Stewart went down.
70. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Many fantasy owners were discouraged by V-Jax's lack of week-to-week consistency in San Diego. He's now entering a run-first offense with worse quarterback play and fewer supporting cast weapons to distract defensive attention. I would avoid.
71. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I did a late-June Re-Watching piece on Ridley and came away smitten with his violent inside running. He's going to be a big upgrade on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Foxboro. The Law Firm leaves behind 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and Ridley is the Patriots' best option to replace him. He's an RB3 who will score like an RB2.
72. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- There was a clear-cut first-tier of QBs last season, with Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, and Stafford comprising the elite group at the top. In Manning's career-best year, he finished No. 7 in points per game, separated from the top unit by Michael Vick. While there's no question that Eli elevated his play, I don't think he'll produce quite like '11.
Seventh Round
73. Philip Rivers (ADP: Late 6th round) -- While he can still be a productive, top-12 quarterback, Rivers' diminished 2011 velocity and downfield arm power are red flags on his 2012 outlook. Look for Ryan Mathews to take over as the focal point of the Chargers' offense, accompanied by a drop in pass attempts. I prefer Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger as QB1 picks for value.
74. Jason Witten (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Witten is one of the "elite" tight ends I'll be avoiding like the plague this season. His numbers went in the gutter with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin healthy down the 2011 stretch, and Witten returns with little chance of being a weekly difference maker.
75. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Turner's performance and role are in decline entering his age-30 season. Perhaps fewer carries will pay off for Atlanta in December, but it will have a dramatic effect on Turner's fantasy stats. Lacking passing-game chops, Turner will need short-yardage touchdowns to buoy his value. And goal-line opportunities can be unreliable year to year.
76. Reggie Bush (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Bush is coming off the best season of his career, but did much of his damage against a slew of weak defenses and will be handled differently by the Dolphins' new coaching staff. I wouldn't dare take him in the top four rounds of a fantasy draft.
77. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Bradshaw's current Average Draft Position is alarmingly high for a running back who isn't even the most talented ball carrier on his own team. Bradshaw would be a brutal use of an early fantasy pick with first-rounder David Wilson lurking.
78. Willis McGahee (ADP: Early 6th round) -- McGahee is getting up there in years, but there was plenty of juice left in his legs down the 2011 stretch. He had some legitimately explosive runs. While McGahee's current ADP is reaching, it could fall as Ronnie Hillman's stock rises in camp.
79. Fred Davis (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Davis' ADP isn't problematic, but keep in mind that he benefited from Washington's weak wideout play last year, and the Skins addressed that. Davis tied for fifth among tight ends in 2011 weekly scoring, but he was seven points per week behind Gronkowski, and more than four behind Graham. You're not in great shape if Davis is your starter.
80. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- I like that Meachem is getting a chance to become an every-down receiver, but he's in a large cluster of back-end WR3s and probably won't help you in PPR. I have him a little higher here than his "tier" might warrant because he does offer upside.
81. Donald Brown (ADP: Early 7th round) -- While there's plenty to dislike about Brown's game, he's likely to prove the Colts' best backfield option, leading the team in touches. Job security and scheme fit are question marks, but he has some big-play ability and makes for an intriguing RB3.
82. Greg Little (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Trent Richardson will be the centerpiece of the Browns' offense, but Little falls in line as No. 2. With a quarterback now capable of connecting outside the numbers, the Browns' top wideout has breakout appeal and will continue to be oft-targeted.
83. Ben Tate (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Tate's Average Draft Position is skewed by protective Arian Foster owners reaching to insure the No. 1 pick. That's fine, but pounce if you're in a draft where the Foster owner is caught sleeping. Tate is a solid RB3 and will be an RB1 if Foster gets injured.
84. James Starks (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Purely a pedestrian talent, Starks is still slated for a big role in a high-scoring offense -- and that counts for plenty. Rotoworld is internally split on Starks, but there's a reasonable argument that he's worth a higher pick than I'd be willing to make him.
Eighth Round
85. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Late 8th round) -- Stafford was my recommended QB value in 2011 drafts, and Big Ben takes his place this year. While Todd Haley earned a run-first reputation in K.C., the truth is he's consistently played to his offense's strengths. The 2012 Steelers look an awful lot like Haley's 2008 Cardinals team, with Isaac Redman (Tim Hightower) at tailback, and Wallace (Fitz), Brown (Boldin), and Emmanuel Sanders (Steve Breaston) out wide. In a pass-heavy, shotgun-based offense, Kurt Warner finished as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback that year.
86. David Wilson (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Flip on a game or two of Wilson's at Virginia Tech, and I guarantee you'll be impressed. In a slow year for surefire running back producers, it's picks like Wilson who could get you over the top. He'll blow by Ahmad Bradshaw sooner rather than later.
87. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Early 9th round) -- New Jets OC Tony Sparano intends to run a smash-mouth offense that takes vertical shots in the rare instances it drops back to pass. Holmes theoretically fits the new scheme, and his miserable 2011 season has favorably torpedoed his ADP. You won't find many borderline WR3/4 types who can bring more talent to the table.
88. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- The 49ers have added three receivers who will all command playing time, and Vernon Davis' role seems likely to increase in Jim Harbaugh's second year. Crabtree finished as the No. 33 fantasy receiver in 2011, and that's roughly his 2012 ceiling.
89. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Greene underwhelms in terms of versatility and talent, and his top-55 ADP suggests fantasy owners are still hoping Greene rediscovers 2009 playoff form. It's not happening. Greene's volume could keep him afloat as a very back-end RB2, but he offers nothing resembling upside and may have suspect job security. We'd encourage you to aim higher.
90. Isaac Redman (ADP: Late 4th round) -- With just over two weeks left before camp, Redman takes the cake as the most overvalued running back according to early ADP. Read more about Redman in my Draft Guide column. If you draft him and he starts out well, be sure to quickly sell him high.
91. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 9th round) -- After breaking down some of Heyward-Bey's 2011 games, I wondered whether his lack of physicality as a receiver would 1) Obstruct his long-term development, and 2) Fit the Raiders' new West Coast scheme. DHB remains an explosive, improving player, and he's a value pick as a WR4/flex option at his current Average Draft Position.
92. Sidney Rice (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Along with Jahvid Best, Rice is as big of a skill-position injury risk as there is in football, following double offseason shoulder surgeries and three concussions in an 11-month span. He's still worth an eighth-round fantasy stab as a No. 1 receiver on a team that has upgraded at quarterback. Rice can give you WR2/3 production when he's on the field.
93. Felix Jones (ADP: Early 11th round) -- In a standard draft, your starting lineup has been filled by round eight and you're seeking high-upside depth. Jones is a talented backup in an explosive offense behind a starter with lots of injury history. He's an every-week RB2 if Murray goes down.
94. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Young needs to make a move up the Lions' pass-game pecking order, but he certainly has tools to do so. While he may be a season away from WR3 reliability, Young is destined for some big 2012 games as his snaps and targets inevitably climb.
95. Santana Moss (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- Though Leonard Hankerson put some interesting things on 2011 tape and Josh Morgan was brought aboard this offseason, we like a rejuvenated Moss' odds of winning a starting job. As a slot receiver and flanker, Moss could push for 75-80 catches.
96. Mark Ingram (ADP: Late 8th round) -- Ingram would seemingly be a potential post-hype year value pick, but his fantasy "ceiling" isn't much different from his 2011 pre-injury production. And he's coming off a second knee surgery in three years. He has the look of an up-and-down RB3.
Ninth Round
97. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- The second most overvalued back in pre-training camp drafts -- behind Redman -- Green-Ellis is a plodder lacking any hint of big-play ability who won't score anywhere near as consistently as he did in New England's high-powered offense. Although the fantasy field is shallow on running backs, Green-Ellis is a reminder that you still shouldn't "reach" for bottom-feeding talents, just to fill an RB2 spot. Law Firm is a virtual lock to disappoint.
98. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Going on 34, Wayne has devolved into a late-career possession receiver that defenses are capable of taking out of games with press coverage. He's a poor value at his current ADP and could be out-produced by both Austin Collie and Coby Fleener.
99. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- Spiller's 2011 stretch-run production should earn him a larger piece of the Bills' 2012 running back pie, but he'll likely still need a Fred Jackson injury to be startable in fantasy leagues. The ADP is rich for a low-end flex option needing to catch a break.
100. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Late 11th round) -- Pead's college tape generated comparisons to LeSean McCoy, and he'll be on the field sooner rather than later. 29-year-old Steven Jackson has 348 more carries than any other active player. Pead will be an every-down back if S-Jax goes down.
101. Kevin Smith (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- Smith offers nice value for a running back with an outside shot to lead his team in touches in an offense that generates consistent ball movement. If Jahvid Best suffers a setback or is concussed again, Smith could emerge as an every-week RB2.
102. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Bush may ultimately do more to hurt Matt Forte's fantasy value than establish his own. He's still a rock-solid mid- to late-round fantasy pick who gets an every-down back job if the starter gets injured. Bush's stock could rise if Forte holds out.
103. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Late 13th round) -- Starter Jones-Drew has had knee problems in the recent past and led the NFL in 2011 rushing attempts. I like Jennings' chances of making starts this year. With a 5.37 career YPC average and pass-game skills, we know he can play.
104. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 12th round) -- The Saints use a fairly even three-back rotation, with Thomas second in line for passing-game work behind Sproles, and red-zone carries behind Ingram. Thomas will need one of those guys to get injured again in order to be a flex starter.
105. Shane Vereen (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Stevan Ridley gets a built-in edge because we've seen him run effectively against NFL defenses, but Vereen was the higher-rated prospect out of college and has just as good a chance to lead the Pats' backfield in touches. Don't count on consistent week-to-week rushing production in Foxboro, but Vereen carries strong RB3 potential.
106. Daniel Thomas (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- I'd feel a lot better about Thomas if he had shown more as a rookie. While he did flash early in the season, Thomas ultimately displayed ordinary run skills and struggled in blitz pickup. Rookie Lamar Miller may push him for Miami's No. 2 back job.
107. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- I like him has a sneaky candidate for 80-90 catches, but Tamme is being overvalued in standard settings. Averaging just 9.3 yards per reception in his career, Tamme has been more of a post-up target lacking run-after-catch and big-play ability.
108. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- You won't find many bigger RG3 fans than the writer of this column, but the eighth round is awfully rich for a QB2. I do realize his upside commands a relatively high pick. He's a dual threat, and OC Kyle Shanahan loves to sling it around the yard.
Tenth Round
109. Randy Moss (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Moss is a tough fit in a run-first offense with a weak-armed passer, and his Average Draft Position has risen much higher than anticipated after a hype-filled spring. The 49ers could end up using a receiver rotation. They're that deep at wideout.
110. Ryan Williams (ADP: Early 9th round) -- Williams hasn't shown elite running skills since '09, battling a multitude of lower-leg injuries in 2010 and missing all of his rookie season with a torn patella tendon. While we're assuming his god-given ability is still in there somewhere, Williams is no more than a late-round RB4/5 flier pick with Beanie Wells to overcome for fantasy start-ability.
111. Jay Cutler (ADP: Early 9th round) -- Cutler is comfortably out of the top-dozen quarterbacks -- meaning he's a fantasy backup -- but he's near the top of the QB2s. While Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery's additions should help the offense, Cutler's protection remains a big concern.
112. Ronnie Hillman (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Hillman's college game tape didn't jump off the page, but he's behind an aging starter on the depth chart and entering an offense destined for improvement. If Hillman can pick up the blitz, he'll offer RB2 potential sooner rather than later.
113. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Late 8th round) -- Annually overrated in fantasy circles, Pettigrew has never finished better than 11th in tight end scoring despite playing in an offense that throws more than anyone. If you're trotting out Pettigrew as a non-PPR starter, you're at a disadvantage.
114. Lance Moore (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Moore isn't going to benefit from Robert Meachem's departure because they don't play the same position. The No. 4 option in New Orleans' passing game behind Graham, Colston, and Sproles, Moore is headed for another year of inconsistency.
115. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted) -- I don't get this ADP at all. The Bengals have determined that Scott isn't feature back material, but he's got the best running talent on his team and at the very least is slated for 10-12 touches a game. He'll be worth rostering in all leagues this season.
116. Austin Collie (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Another head scratcher. Collie won't average more than 11 or 12 yards per catch, but he's a legit candidate to lead Indy in receptions and has always been effective in the red zone. He's a WR4/5 with a sneaky high ceiling in both standard and PPR.
117. Jake Locker (ADP: Undrafted) -- Matt Hasselbeck may open the year as the Titans' starter, but he's not going to last long. Locker is blessed with a power arm and running ability that will pad his stats for years to come. Look for Locker to finish as a top-12 quarterback in points per game.
118. Greg Olsen (ADP: Late 13th round) -- Jeremy Shockey's exit can only help Olsen's cause, but he's finished outside the top-15 fantasy tight ends in back-to-back seasons. He's a TE2.
119. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Late 10th round) -- While back-end TE1 numbers are his ceiling, Gresham has some appeal because Cincy lacks a bona fide No. 2 wideout, and he's entering his second year in OC Jay Gruden's system. He's still averaging under ten yards per career catch.
120. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Mid 11th round) -- LaFell isn't a top-notch talent, but he'll be an every-down receiver after coming off the bench last season. He could flirt with back-end WR3 numbers.
Eleventh Round
121. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Undrafted) -- LaMichael James, meanwhile, has a 14th-round ADP. I'd feel better about Hunter if James hadn't been drafted and Brandon Jacobs signed, but I still think the second-year back will receive most of the touches should 29-year-old Frank Gore break down.
122. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Gonzalez's final 2011 stats look okay on paper, but you'll be at a severe weekly disadvantage if he's your TE1. The 36-year-old's fade is imminent. Don’t be surprised if new playcaller Dirk Koetter cuts back a bit on Gonzo’s snaps.
123. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Blount may open the season sharing time with Doug Martin, but the Bucs didn't trade up in the first round for a committee back. Blount will likely end up as more of a handcuff to Martin, with seventh-rounder Michael Smith nipping at his heels.
124. Coby Fleener (ADP: Mid 12th round) -- Reggie Wayne's decline began two years ago, and Indianapolis has a gaping hole at No. 2 receiver. Austin Collie and Fleener each have equal shots of emerging as Luck's favorite target. Fleener looks like a boom-or-bust late-round fantasy pick.
125. Joe Flacco (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Flacco is being drafted behind QBs like Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Schaub, none of whom can equal his potential. I don't blame anyone for tiring of "waiting" on Flacco, but he's well worth the price of admission in the way-late rounds.
126. Carson Palmer (ADP: Early 11th round) -- While new OC Greg Knapp's run-heavy ways are a concern for pass attempts, Oakland's offense boasts explosive potential with Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Juron Criner out wide. Palmer is a very attractive QB2.
127. Bernard Pierce (ADP: Undrafted) -- The best bet to emerge as Ray Rice's top backup, this third-round rookie would likely control early-down work in Baltimore if the starter got hurt. Pierce is another young, lottery ticket running back worth handcuffing to Rice and drafting in all leagues.
128. Mike Williams, TB (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- We don't like Williams' chances of rediscovering 2010 form as the now-No. 2 receiver in a run-first offense. Williams is worth a fantasy pick to see how things go early in the season, but don't be surprised if he hits waiver wires after a few weeks.
129. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Late 10th round) -- Rodgers has many proponents, so it's surprising that his ADP remains at reasonable levels. While we're not smitten with his skills as a pure ball carrier, it's hard not to like his receiving game and the fact that Atlanta wants to get him the rock.
130. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Early 9th round) -- Boldin's big-play ability has evaporated going on age 32, and he finished 37th among fantasy wideouts last year. Essentially an undersized tight end at this stage of his career, Boldin will be passed by Torrey Smith as the Ravens' top wideout.
131. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Floyd closed '11 with several big late-season games, but the Chargers confirmed that they don't view him as a top wideout by signing Robert Meachem. He'll be a situational deep threat while Meachem, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Mathews hog the ball.
132. Brian Quick (ADP: Early 11th round) -- No NFL rookie has a better chance to be his team's No. 1 receiver than Quick in St. Louis. While we might shy away in PPR formats, Quick offers intrigue as a WR5 in standard scoring. He's big, can run, and is being counted on for a huge role.
Twelfth Round
133. Kendall Wright (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Wright's role is not yet clear, but he'll offer upside if Kenny Britt's twice-repaired knee acts up. A vertical weapon with Victor Cruzian skills, Wright's fantasy appeal will spike once Jake Locker enters the lineup. We expect that early in the year.
134. Brian Hartline (ADP: Undrafted) -- Inconsistency and quarterback musical chairs seem inevitable in Miami, but Hartline is the one Dolphins wide receiver worth a long look on draft day. There is some thinking that Hartline could be ex-Packers OC Joe Philbin's new Jordy Nelson.
135. Nate Washington (ADP: Early 12th round) -- Fantasy owners are smartly not chasing his 2011 stats. Washington's role will diminish with the addition of Wright and return of Kenny Britt.
136. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- James Starks is too pedestrian to be locked into a feature back role, and Green ran 4.53 at 6-foot, 225 before tearing his ACL last October. Now healthy, Green could push Starks in camp. He's a multi-talented back with tools for the passing game.
137. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Early 12th round) -- Chan Gailey loves to throw the football, and Fitz is capable of high-end QB2 stats if he could put it all together. He's been a fast starter who fades.
138. Owen Daniels (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- I rarely draft a TE2, but Daniels might be the best value in this year's crop. Andre Johnson is no longer a picture of durability, and the Texans lack a strong No. 2 wide receiver. Daniels isn't the fantasy starter he once was, but he's a terrific backup.
139. Dustin Keller (ADP: Undrafted) -- Keller is entering a contract year, and he'll probably need a change of scenery to realize his fantasy potential. He could still be a worthwhile bye-week TE2.
140. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Undrafted) -- Sanders should beat out Jerricho Cotchery for the Steelers' slot receiver job. If Haley's offense is as passing-based as it should be, Sanders could flirt with WR3 final stats and something better if Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown were injured.
141. Randall Cobb (ADP: Undrafted) -- I alluded to this in my Re-Watching piece; Cobb's 2012 "floor" should be last year's Donald Driver production (WR5). His ceiling is far higher, particularly if Jordy Nelson, Driver, or James Jones gets injured. Cobb is an ideal late-round flier wideout pick.
142. Leonard Hankerson (ADP: Undrafted) -- Hankerson needs his surgically repaired hip to heal and things to break right, but he's late-round flier worthy because he's got starting-caliber talent. The Redskins love throwing the ball, and their passing game could take off with RG3 at the helm.
143. Michael Floyd (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Floyd was a nice draft pick for the Cardinals, but he will struggle mightily for fantasy consistency as a No. 2 receiver with unreliable quarterback play.
144. Danny Amendola (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Amendola has been a PPR asset before, but the new Rams regime is installing a run-first offense while making no guarantees on using him as an every-down receiver. Amendola has never provided much in the way of yards or touchdowns.
Thirteenth Round
145. Josh Freeman (ADP: Late 11th round) -- Freeman figures to play better than he did last year, but new coach Greg Schiano's run-based offense will almost certainly keep him off the QB1 radar.
146. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted) -- He's still starving for weapons outside the numbers, but Ponder's arm talent and athleticism provide reasons for optimism. Matt Flynn, Alex Smith, and Sam Bradford are all being drafted, and Ponder is a more desirable QB2 than any of the above.
147. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Owners taking Schaub in the single-digit rounds must not be able to separate him from Houston's pass-heavy years. The Texans have transitioned into the NFL's run-happiest offense, and that's a backbreaking development for a fantasy quarterback.
148. Jared Cook (ADP: Mid 12th round) -- Just don't draft him to be your starter. Cook is long on athletic gifts and upside, but the Titans have shown no commitment to playing and involving him on a regular basis. TE2s aren't always worth fantasy picks, but Cook is among the better ones.
149. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Undrafted) -- Likely to be a hot early-season waiver wire pickup, this 2011 second-round pick flashed Gronkian tools as a rookie. Rudolph will be much more involved in Minnesota's passing game, possibly as Christian Ponder's No. 2 target behind Percy Harvin.
150. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Julio Jones and A.J. Green's rookie success may be playing a role in Blackmon's surprisingly high ADP. Let's get this straight: Blackmon isn't nearly as good a prospect as Green or Jones, and he's entering the NFL's worst passing game.
Not in my Top 150: Peyton Hillis (ADP: Mid 7th round), Mikel Leshoure (Late 8th round), Rashard Mendenhall (Early 11th round), Andy Dalton (Early 11th round), Tim Hightower (Mid 11th round), Vincent Brown (Mid 11th round), Laurent Robinson (Late 11th round), Chad Ochocinco (Early 12th round), Mike Goodson (Mid 12th round), Andrew Luck (Late 12th round), Alshon Jeffery (Late 12th round), Jonathan Baldwin (Late 12th round), Brent Celek (Early 13th round), Mario Manningham (Mid 13th round), Matt Flynn (Mid 13th round), Cedric Benson (Mid 13th round).