Evan Silva

Goal Line Stand

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Silva's Pre-Camp Top 150

Tuesday, July 10, 2012



Sixth Round

61. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 8th round) -- You'll find many different opinions on Garcon, but one thing I can say with certainty: The Redskins will want to get him the rock early and often. Playing the "X" receiver position occupied by Andre Johnson in Kyle Shanahan's last offense and Brandon Marshall in Mike's, Garcon will be Robert Griffin III's featured, go-to receiver in a pass-first attack.

62. Peyton Manning (ADP: Early 6th round) -- My 2012 mindset on Manning is that his addition in Denver bodes well for Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Jacob Tamme, but perhaps less so for himself. I don't think he'll rack up pass attempts like he did for so many years in Indianapolis, and his health after four neck surgeries remains a question mark. I probably wouldn't draft him.

63. Beanie Wells (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- If you're drafting Wells around his current ADP, you're basically betting that Ryan Williams won't rediscover pre-patellar tear form and Wells' own knee will recover smoothly. I tend to like those odds. Williams hasn't been productive or healthy since 2009 -- his freshman year in college. In standard settings, Wells is an attractive mid-round RB2.

64. Matt Ryan (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- Ryan doesn't possess the god-given ability of Matthew Stafford, but his situation entering the season is somewhat similar to Stafford's at this time last year. Folks are down on Ryan after a relatively disappointing season, but post-hype appeal is strong with a new OC intent on opening up Atlanta's offense. Ryan has a 35-TD campaign in him.

65. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Johnson is taken relatively early by risk-averse drafters because he's viewed as a safe pick. While his role as a clear No. 1 offensive option is enticing, the receiver depth this year makes Johnson a value at no earlier than round six.

66. Denarius Moore (ADP: Late 7th round) -- In a standard league, Moore offers just as much production potential as the aforementioned Stevie Johnson, who finished last season with just over 1,000 yards and seven TDs. Moore is capable of that, and he can be had two rounds later.

67. Torrey Smith (ADP: Early 7th round) -- Smith is in the ballpark of Johnson and Moore, with a ceiling of around 1,100 yards and 6-8 TDs -- assuming everyone stays healthy. It's more evidence that you can wait until the late sixth or seventh round to grab a WR3 with a WR2 stat projection.

68. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Gerhart soaks up blocked yards and excels in the passing game. The Vikings have also hinted that he'll start over Adrian Peterson to open the year. Peterson will be prone to setbacks after rushing his recovery from two knee ligament tears, in addition to meniscus damage. Gerhart is a safe bet to outscore his ADP -- perhaps significantly.

69. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Williams has lost some burst since his 2008 career year, but he's still playing at a high enough level with a consistent enough role to provide low-end RB2/flex scoring. He'd also become a borderline RB1 if Jonathan Stewart went down.

70. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Many fantasy owners were discouraged by V-Jax's lack of week-to-week consistency in San Diego. He's now entering a run-first offense with worse quarterback play and fewer supporting cast weapons to distract defensive attention. I would avoid.

71. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I did a late-June Re-Watching piece on Ridley and came away smitten with his violent inside running. He's going to be a big upgrade on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Foxboro. The Law Firm leaves behind 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and Ridley is the Patriots' best option to replace him. He's an RB3 who will score like an RB2.

72. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- There was a clear-cut first-tier of QBs last season, with Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Newton, and Stafford comprising the elite group at the top. In Manning's career-best year, he finished No. 7 in points per game, separated from the top unit by Michael Vick. While there's no question that Eli elevated his play, I don't think he'll produce quite like '11.

Seventh Round

73. Philip Rivers (ADP: Late 6th round) -- While he can still be a productive, top-12 quarterback, Rivers' diminished 2011 velocity and downfield arm power are red flags on his 2012 outlook. Look for Ryan Mathews to take over as the focal point of the Chargers' offense, accompanied by a drop in pass attempts. I prefer Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger as QB1 picks for value.

74. Jason Witten (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Witten is one of the "elite" tight ends I'll be avoiding like the plague this season. His numbers went in the gutter with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin healthy down the 2011 stretch, and Witten returns with little chance of being a weekly difference maker.

75. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Turner's performance and role are in decline entering his age-30 season. Perhaps fewer carries will pay off for Atlanta in December, but it will have a dramatic effect on Turner's fantasy stats. Lacking passing-game chops, Turner will need short-yardage touchdowns to buoy his value. And goal-line opportunities can be unreliable year to year.

76. Reggie Bush (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Bush is coming off the best season of his career, but did much of his damage against a slew of weak defenses and will be handled differently by the Dolphins' new coaching staff. I wouldn't dare take him in the top four rounds of a fantasy draft.

77. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Bradshaw's current Average Draft Position is alarmingly high for a running back who isn't even the most talented ball carrier on his own team. Bradshaw would be a brutal use of an early fantasy pick with first-rounder David Wilson lurking.

78. Willis McGahee (ADP: Early 6th round) -- McGahee is getting up there in years, but there was plenty of juice left in his legs down the 2011 stretch. He had some legitimately explosive runs. While McGahee's current ADP is reaching, it could fall as Ronnie Hillman's stock rises in camp.

79. Fred Davis (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Davis' ADP isn't problematic, but keep in mind that he benefited from Washington's weak wideout play last year, and the Skins addressed that. Davis tied for fifth among tight ends in 2011 weekly scoring, but he was seven points per week behind Gronkowski, and more than four behind Graham. You're not in great shape if Davis is your starter.

80. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- I like that Meachem is getting a chance to become an every-down receiver, but he's in a large cluster of back-end WR3s and probably won't help you in PPR. I have him a little higher here than his "tier" might warrant because he does offer upside.

81. Donald Brown (ADP: Early 7th round) -- While there's plenty to dislike about Brown's game, he's likely to prove the Colts' best backfield option, leading the team in touches. Job security and scheme fit are question marks, but he has some big-play ability and makes for an intriguing RB3.

82. Greg Little (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Trent Richardson will be the centerpiece of the Browns' offense, but Little falls in line as No. 2. With a quarterback now capable of connecting outside the numbers, the Browns' top wideout has breakout appeal and will continue to be oft-targeted.

83. Ben Tate (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Tate's Average Draft Position is skewed by protective Arian Foster owners reaching to insure the No. 1 pick. That's fine, but pounce if you're in a draft where the Foster owner is caught sleeping. Tate is a solid RB3 and will be an RB1 if Foster gets injured.

84. James Starks (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Purely a pedestrian talent, Starks is still slated for a big role in a high-scoring offense -- and that counts for plenty. Rotoworld is internally split on Starks, but there's a reasonable argument that he's worth a higher pick than I'd be willing to make him.

Eighth Round

85. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Late 8th round) -- Stafford was my recommended QB value in 2011 drafts, and Big Ben takes his place this year. While Todd Haley earned a run-first reputation in K.C., the truth is he's consistently played to his offense's strengths. The 2012 Steelers look an awful lot like Haley's 2008 Cardinals team, with Isaac Redman (Tim Hightower) at tailback, and Wallace (Fitz), Brown (Boldin), and Emmanuel Sanders (Steve Breaston) out wide. In a pass-heavy, shotgun-based offense, Kurt Warner finished as the No. 4 fantasy quarterback that year.

86. David Wilson (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Flip on a game or two of Wilson's at Virginia Tech, and I guarantee you'll be impressed. In a slow year for surefire running back producers, it's picks like Wilson who could get you over the top. He'll blow by Ahmad Bradshaw sooner rather than later.

87. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Early 9th round) -- New Jets OC Tony Sparano intends to run a smash-mouth offense that takes vertical shots in the rare instances it drops back to pass. Holmes theoretically fits the new scheme, and his miserable 2011 season has favorably torpedoed his ADP. You won't find many borderline WR3/4 types who can bring more talent to the table.

88. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- The 49ers have added three receivers who will all command playing time, and Vernon Davis' role seems likely to increase in Jim Harbaugh's second year. Crabtree finished as the No. 33 fantasy receiver in 2011, and that's roughly his 2012 ceiling.

89. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Greene underwhelms in terms of versatility and talent, and his top-55 ADP suggests fantasy owners are still hoping Greene rediscovers 2009 playoff form. It's not happening. Greene's volume could keep him afloat as a very back-end RB2, but he offers nothing resembling upside and may have suspect job security. We'd encourage you to aim higher.

90. Isaac Redman (ADP: Late 4th round) -- With just over two weeks left before camp, Redman takes the cake as the most overvalued running back according to early ADP. Read more about Redman in my Draft Guide column. If you draft him and he starts out well, be sure to quickly sell him high.

91. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 9th round) -- After breaking down some of Heyward-Bey's 2011 games, I wondered whether his lack of physicality as a receiver would 1) Obstruct his long-term development, and 2) Fit the Raiders' new West Coast scheme. DHB remains an explosive, improving player, and he's a value pick as a WR4/flex option at his current Average Draft Position.

92. Sidney Rice (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Along with Jahvid Best, Rice is as big of a skill-position injury risk as there is in football, following double offseason shoulder surgeries and three concussions in an 11-month span. He's still worth an eighth-round fantasy stab as a No. 1 receiver on a team that has upgraded at quarterback. Rice can give you WR2/3 production when he's on the field.

93. Felix Jones (ADP: Early 11th round) -- In a standard draft, your starting lineup has been filled by round eight and you're seeking high-upside depth. Jones is a talented backup in an explosive offense behind a starter with lots of injury history. He's an every-week RB2 if Murray goes down.

94. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Young needs to make a move up the Lions' pass-game pecking order, but he certainly has tools to do so. While he may be a season away from WR3 reliability, Young is destined for some big 2012 games as his snaps and targets inevitably climb.

95. Santana Moss (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- Though Leonard Hankerson put some interesting things on 2011 tape and Josh Morgan was brought aboard this offseason, we like a rejuvenated Moss' odds of winning a starting job. As a slot receiver and flanker, Moss could push for 75-80 catches.

96. Mark Ingram (ADP: Late 8th round) -- Ingram would seemingly be a potential post-hype year value pick, but his fantasy "ceiling" isn't much different from his 2011 pre-injury production. And he's coming off a second knee surgery in three years. He has the look of an up-and-down RB3.


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Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Evan Silva



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