Evan Silva

Goal Line Stand

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Silva's Pre-Camp Top 150

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Ninth Round

97. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- The second most overvalued back in pre-training camp drafts -- behind Redman -- Green-Ellis is a plodder lacking any hint of big-play ability who won't score anywhere near as consistently as he did in New England's high-powered offense. Although the fantasy field is shallow on running backs, Green-Ellis is a reminder that you still shouldn't "reach" for bottom-feeding talents, just to fill an RB2 spot. Law Firm is a virtual lock to disappoint.

98. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 7th round) -- Going on 34, Wayne has devolved into a late-career possession receiver that defenses are capable of taking out of games with press coverage. He's a poor value at his current ADP and could be out-produced by both Austin Collie and Coby Fleener.

99. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- Spiller's 2011 stretch-run production should earn him a larger piece of the Bills' 2012 running back pie, but he'll likely still need a Fred Jackson injury to be startable in fantasy leagues. The ADP is rich for a low-end flex option needing to catch a break.

100. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Late 11th round) -- Pead's college tape generated comparisons to LeSean McCoy, and he'll be on the field sooner rather than later. 29-year-old Steven Jackson has 348 more carries than any other active player. Pead will be an every-down back if S-Jax goes down.

101. Kevin Smith (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- Smith offers nice value for a running back with an outside shot to lead his team in touches in an offense that generates consistent ball movement. If Jahvid Best suffers a setback or is concussed again, Smith could emerge as an every-week RB2.

102. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Bush may ultimately do more to hurt Matt Forte's fantasy value than establish his own. He's still a rock-solid mid- to late-round fantasy pick who gets an every-down back job if the starter gets injured. Bush's stock could rise if Forte holds out.

103. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Late 13th round) -- Starter Jones-Drew has had knee problems in the recent past and led the NFL in 2011 rushing attempts. I like Jennings' chances of making starts this year. With a 5.37 career YPC average and pass-game skills, we know he can play.

104. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 12th round) -- The Saints use a fairly even three-back rotation, with Thomas second in line for passing-game work behind Sproles, and red-zone carries behind Ingram. Thomas will need one of those guys to get injured again in order to be a flex starter.

105. Shane Vereen (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Stevan Ridley gets a built-in edge because we've seen him run effectively against NFL defenses, but Vereen was the higher-rated prospect out of college and has just as good a chance to lead the Pats' backfield in touches. Don't count on consistent week-to-week rushing production in Foxboro, but Vereen carries strong RB3 potential.

106. Daniel Thomas (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- I'd feel a lot better about Thomas if he had shown more as a rookie. While he did flash early in the season, Thomas ultimately displayed ordinary run skills and struggled in blitz pickup. Rookie Lamar Miller may push him for Miami's No. 2 back job.

107. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- I like him has a sneaky candidate for 80-90 catches, but Tamme is being overvalued in standard settings. Averaging just 9.3 yards per reception in his career, Tamme has been more of a post-up target lacking run-after-catch and big-play ability.

108. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- You won't find many bigger RG3 fans than the writer of this column, but the eighth round is awfully rich for a QB2. I do realize his upside commands a relatively high pick. He's a dual threat, and OC Kyle Shanahan loves to sling it around the yard.

Tenth Round

109. Randy Moss (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Moss is a tough fit in a run-first offense with a weak-armed passer, and his Average Draft Position has risen much higher than anticipated after a hype-filled spring. The 49ers could end up using a receiver rotation. They're that deep at wideout.

110. Ryan Williams (ADP: Early 9th round) -- Williams hasn't shown elite running skills since '09, battling a multitude of lower-leg injuries in 2010 and missing all of his rookie season with a torn patella tendon. While we're assuming his god-given ability is still in there somewhere, Williams is no more than a late-round RB4/5 flier pick with Beanie Wells to overcome for fantasy start-ability.

111. Jay Cutler (ADP: Early 9th round) -- Cutler is comfortably out of the top-dozen quarterbacks -- meaning he's a fantasy backup -- but he's near the top of the QB2s. While Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery's additions should help the offense, Cutler's protection remains a big concern.

112. Ronnie Hillman (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Hillman's college game tape didn't jump off the page, but he's behind an aging starter on the depth chart and entering an offense destined for improvement. If Hillman can pick up the blitz, he'll offer RB2 potential sooner rather than later.

113. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Late 8th round) -- Annually overrated in fantasy circles, Pettigrew has never finished better than 11th in tight end scoring despite playing in an offense that throws more than anyone. If you're trotting out Pettigrew as a non-PPR starter, you're at a disadvantage.

114. Lance Moore (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Moore isn't going to benefit from Robert Meachem's departure because they don't play the same position. The No. 4 option in New Orleans' passing game behind Graham, Colston, and Sproles, Moore is headed for another year of inconsistency.

115. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted) -- I don't get this ADP at all. The Bengals have determined that Scott isn't feature back material, but he's got the best running talent on his team and at the very least is slated for 10-12 touches a game. He'll be worth rostering in all leagues this season.

116. Austin Collie (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Another head scratcher. Collie won't average more than 11 or 12 yards per catch, but he's a legit candidate to lead Indy in receptions and has always been effective in the red zone. He's a WR4/5 with a sneaky high ceiling in both standard and PPR.

117. Jake Locker (ADP: Undrafted) -- Matt Hasselbeck may open the year as the Titans' starter, but he's not going to last long. Locker is blessed with a power arm and running ability that will pad his stats for years to come. Look for Locker to finish as a top-12 quarterback in points per game.

118. Greg Olsen (ADP: Late 13th round) -- Jeremy Shockey's exit can only help Olsen's cause, but he's finished outside the top-15 fantasy tight ends in back-to-back seasons. He's a TE2.

119. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Late 10th round) -- While back-end TE1 numbers are his ceiling, Gresham has some appeal because Cincy lacks a bona fide No. 2 wideout, and he's entering his second year in OC Jay Gruden's system. He's still averaging under ten yards per career catch.

120. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Mid 11th round) -- LaFell isn't a top-notch talent, but he'll be an every-down receiver after coming off the bench last season. He could flirt with back-end WR3 numbers.

Eleventh Round

121. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Undrafted) -- LaMichael James, meanwhile, has a 14th-round ADP. I'd feel better about Hunter if James hadn't been drafted and Brandon Jacobs signed, but I still think the second-year back will receive most of the touches should 29-year-old Frank Gore break down.

122. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Gonzalez's final 2011 stats look okay on paper, but you'll be at a severe weekly disadvantage if he's your TE1. The 36-year-old's fade is imminent. Don’t be surprised if new playcaller Dirk Koetter cuts back a bit on Gonzo’s snaps.

123. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Mid 9th round) -- Blount may open the season sharing time with Doug Martin, but the Bucs didn't trade up in the first round for a committee back. Blount will likely end up as more of a handcuff to Martin, with seventh-rounder Michael Smith nipping at his heels.

124. Coby Fleener (ADP: Mid 12th round) -- Reggie Wayne's decline began two years ago, and Indianapolis has a gaping hole at No. 2 receiver. Austin Collie and Fleener each have equal shots of emerging as Luck's favorite target. Fleener looks like a boom-or-bust late-round fantasy pick.

125. Joe Flacco (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Flacco is being drafted behind QBs like Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Schaub, none of whom can equal his potential. I don't blame anyone for tiring of "waiting" on Flacco, but he's well worth the price of admission in the way-late rounds.

126. Carson Palmer (ADP: Early 11th round) -- While new OC Greg Knapp's run-heavy ways are a concern for pass attempts, Oakland's offense boasts explosive potential with Denarius Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Juron Criner out wide. Palmer is a very attractive QB2.

127. Bernard Pierce (ADP: Undrafted) -- The best bet to emerge as Ray Rice's top backup, this third-round rookie would likely control early-down work in Baltimore if the starter got hurt. Pierce is another young, lottery ticket running back worth handcuffing to Rice and drafting in all leagues.

128. Mike Williams, TB (ADP: Mid 10th round) -- We don't like Williams' chances of rediscovering 2010 form as the now-No. 2 receiver in a run-first offense. Williams is worth a fantasy pick to see how things go early in the season, but don't be surprised if he hits waiver wires after a few weeks.

129. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Late 10th round) -- Rodgers has many proponents, so it's surprising that his ADP remains at reasonable levels. While we're not smitten with his skills as a pure ball carrier, it's hard not to like his receiving game and the fact that Atlanta wants to get him the rock.

130. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Early 9th round) -- Boldin's big-play ability has evaporated going on age 32, and he finished 37th among fantasy wideouts last year. Essentially an undersized tight end at this stage of his career, Boldin will be passed by Torrey Smith as the Ravens' top wideout.

131. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Floyd closed '11 with several big late-season games, but the Chargers confirmed that they don't view him as a top wideout by signing Robert Meachem. He'll be a situational deep threat while Meachem, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Mathews hog the ball.

132. Brian Quick (ADP: Early 11th round) -- No NFL rookie has a better chance to be his team's No. 1 receiver than Quick in St. Louis. While we might shy away in PPR formats, Quick offers intrigue as a WR5 in standard scoring. He's big, can run, and is being counted on for a huge role.

Twelfth Round

133. Kendall Wright (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Wright's role is not yet clear, but he'll offer upside if Kenny Britt's twice-repaired knee acts up. A vertical weapon with Victor Cruzian skills, Wright's fantasy appeal will spike once Jake Locker enters the lineup. We expect that early in the year.

134. Brian Hartline (ADP: Undrafted) -- Inconsistency and quarterback musical chairs seem inevitable in Miami, but Hartline is the one Dolphins wide receiver worth a long look on draft day. There is some thinking that Hartline could be ex-Packers OC Joe Philbin's new Jordy Nelson.

135. Nate Washington (ADP: Early 12th round) -- Fantasy owners are smartly not chasing his 2011 stats. Washington's role will diminish with the addition of Wright and return of Kenny Britt.

136. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- James Starks is too pedestrian to be locked into a feature back role, and Green ran 4.53 at 6-foot, 225 before tearing his ACL last October. Now healthy, Green could push Starks in camp. He's a multi-talented back with tools for the passing game.

137. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Early 12th round) -- Chan Gailey loves to throw the football, and Fitz is capable of high-end QB2 stats if he could put it all together. He's been a fast starter who fades.

138. Owen Daniels (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- I rarely draft a TE2, but Daniels might be the best value in this year's crop. Andre Johnson is no longer a picture of durability, and the Texans lack a strong No. 2 wide receiver. Daniels isn't the fantasy starter he once was, but he's a terrific backup.

139. Dustin Keller (ADP: Undrafted) -- Keller is entering a contract year, and he'll probably need a change of scenery to realize his fantasy potential. He could still be a worthwhile bye-week TE2.

140. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Undrafted) -- Sanders should beat out Jerricho Cotchery for the Steelers' slot receiver job. If Haley's offense is as passing-based as it should be, Sanders could flirt with WR3 final stats and something better if Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown were injured.

141. Randall Cobb (ADP: Undrafted) -- I alluded to this in my Re-Watching piece; Cobb's 2012 "floor" should be last year's Donald Driver production (WR5). His ceiling is far higher, particularly if Jordy Nelson, Driver, or James Jones gets injured. Cobb is an ideal late-round flier wideout pick.

142. Leonard Hankerson (ADP: Undrafted) -- Hankerson needs his surgically repaired hip to heal and things to break right, but he's late-round flier worthy because he's got starting-caliber talent. The Redskins love throwing the ball, and their passing game could take off with RG3 at the helm.

143. Michael Floyd (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Floyd was a nice draft pick for the Cardinals, but he will struggle mightily for fantasy consistency as a No. 2 receiver with unreliable quarterback play.

144. Danny Amendola (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Amendola has been a PPR asset before, but the new Rams regime is installing a run-first offense while making no guarantees on using him as an every-down receiver. Amendola has never provided much in the way of yards or touchdowns.

Thirteenth Round

145. Josh Freeman (ADP: Late 11th round) -- Freeman figures to play better than he did last year, but new coach Greg Schiano's run-based offense will almost certainly keep him off the QB1 radar.

146. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted) -- He's still starving for weapons outside the numbers, but Ponder's arm talent and athleticism provide reasons for optimism. Matt Flynn, Alex Smith, and Sam Bradford are all being drafted, and Ponder is a more desirable QB2 than any of the above.

147. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Owners taking Schaub in the single-digit rounds must not be able to separate him from Houston's pass-heavy years. The Texans have transitioned into the NFL's run-happiest offense, and that's a backbreaking development for a fantasy quarterback.

148. Jared Cook (ADP: Mid 12th round) -- Just don't draft him to be your starter. Cook is long on athletic gifts and upside, but the Titans have shown no commitment to playing and involving him on a regular basis. TE2s aren't always worth fantasy picks, but Cook is among the better ones.

149. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Undrafted) -- Likely to be a hot early-season waiver wire pickup, this 2011 second-round pick flashed Gronkian tools as a rookie. Rudolph will be much more involved in Minnesota's passing game, possibly as Christian Ponder's No. 2 target behind Percy Harvin.

150. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Julio Jones and A.J. Green's rookie success may be playing a role in Blackmon's surprisingly high ADP. Let's get this straight: Blackmon isn't nearly as good a prospect as Green or Jones, and he's entering the NFL's worst passing game.

Not in my Top 150: Peyton Hillis (ADP: Mid 7th round), Mikel Leshoure (Late 8th round), Rashard Mendenhall (Early 11th round), Andy Dalton (Early 11th round), Tim Hightower (Mid 11th round), Vincent Brown (Mid 11th round), Laurent Robinson (Late 11th round), Chad Ochocinco (Early 12th round), Mike Goodson (Mid 12th round), Andrew Luck (Late 12th round), Alshon Jeffery (Late 12th round), Jonathan Baldwin (Late 12th round), Brent Celek (Early 13th round), Mario Manningham (Mid 13th round), Matt Flynn (Mid 13th round), Cedric Benson (Mid 13th round).

Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
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