A Leap of Faith

Remember last year?

Everyone had their own explanation for Chris Johnson's career-worst season. Early on, Titans coaches went so far as to openly blame themselves for not getting him enough carries.

Look closer, and there were early signs of internal concern. C.J. began losing series of playing time to Javon Ringer as early as Week 2. After that game, Mike Munchak and position coach Jim Skipper summoned Johnson for a private meeting. “They just wanted to really know how I was feeling and things like that and I let them know I was good,” Johnson explained at the time. Days later, Munchak said that Johnson "ran hard" in practice, "which was good to see." We'll cover this more in a bit, but Munchak said those things because Johnson wasn't running hard in the games.

Several football analysts suggested Johnson's struggles were due to poor offensive line play, and there is at least a sliver of truth to that. Tennessee's front five struggled to open holes, particularly on the interior. Football Outsiders graded the Titans as the worst run-blocking unit in the league. Pro Football Focus had them 17th, albeit with a severely "negative" grade.

It should be noted that FO graded the Titans' line 31st in run blocking in 2010, and PFF had them dead last. Yet Johnson's stats dipped across the board. His yards-per-carry average dropped from 4.32 two seasons ago to 3.99. In his prime, Johnson was an elusive runner on top of possessing go-the-distance speed. He really shouldn't need dominant run blocking.

In late October, a new theory arose. Titan Insider reported that Johnson's conditioning level was poor when he arrived at team headquarters in early September, following a training-camp holdout. Beat reporter Terry McCormick's story claimed that Johnson's physical fitness "could be a factor" as to his early-season struggles.

Texans linebacker Brian Cushing had a different take. "If you hit him early, I think it kind of deters him a little bit," said Johnson's division rival. NFL Films guru Greg Cosell suggested Johnson had morphed into a "back that shies away from contact," while missing lateral moves and explosion.

It was around that point that Johnson lashed out at his critics and, less directly, his teammates. "Basically, if you are watching the game and you really can’t tell what is going on with the run game, then I would say you really don’t know football," he said. "I wouldn’t say I am the issue."

A week later, Johnson was benched for Ringer in the fourth quarter of the Titans' Week 8 game against Indianapolis. "The Chris Johnson that we’re used to seeing, I don’t know why we’re not seeing him," NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe said after the Colts game. "Usually, when he got one on one, he could make a guy miss and it was going to be electric. Now he’s just curling up in a ball and looking for the softest spot on the field to lay down." Sharpe works for NFL Network's Playbook program, watching All-22 coaches tape. And the eye in the sky tends not to lie.

More theories for Johnson's struggles popped up over the course of the season. Some blamed the lockout. Others a new offensive coordinator. Johnson's conditioning was an oft-broached topic, as was the line play. In November, people around the league were wondering whether the Titans might cut Johnson after the season. He was playing that badly. Some folks legitimately believe Johnson has entered a state of decline.

"Is he a step slower? Yeah, I'm sure he is," said Munchak in January. "I don't know how you would measure that exactly, but I'm sure he has (lost speed)."

As someone who is interested in fantasy football, I find myself almost rooting for Johnson. He is an every-down back, and those don't grow on trees anymore. We also all saw Johnson take the NFL by storm in 2008 and 2009. He was so much fun to watch. I would love to see that again.

And I want to have a feel for whether it might happen.

Remember last year?

Everyone had their own explanation for Chris Johnson's career-worst season. Early on, Titans coaches went so far as to openly blame themselves for not getting him enough carries.

Look closer, and there were early signs of internal concern. C.J. began losing series of playing time to Javon Ringer as early as Week 2. After that game, Mike Munchak and position coach Jim Skipper summoned Johnson for a private meeting. “They just wanted to really know how I was feeling and things like that and I let them know I was good,” Johnson explained at the time. Days later, Munchak said that Johnson "ran hard" in practice, "which was good to see." We'll cover this more in a bit, but Munchak said those things because Johnson wasn't running hard in the games.

Several football analysts suggested Johnson's struggles were due to poor offensive line play, and there is at least a sliver of truth to that. Tennessee's front five struggled to open holes, particularly on the interior. Football Outsiders graded the Titans as the worst run-blocking unit in the league. Pro Football Focus had them 17th, albeit with a severely "negative" grade.

It should be noted that FO graded the Titans' line 31st in run blocking in 2010, and PFF had them dead last. Yet Johnson's stats dipped across the board. His yards-per-carry average dropped from 4.32 two seasons ago to 3.99. In his prime, Johnson was an elusive runner on top of possessing go-the-distance speed. He really shouldn't need dominant run blocking.

In late October, a new theory arose. Titan Insider reported that Johnson's conditioning level was poor when he arrived at team headquarters in early September, following a training-camp holdout. Beat reporter Terry McCormick's story claimed that Johnson's physical fitness "could be a factor" as to his early-season struggles.

Texans linebacker Brian Cushing had a different take. "If you hit him early, I think it kind of deters him a little bit," said Johnson's division rival. NFL Films guru Greg Cosell suggested Johnson had morphed into a "back that shies away from contact," while missing lateral moves and explosion.

It was around that point that Johnson lashed out at his critics and, less directly, his teammates. "Basically, if you are watching the game and you really can’t tell what is going on with the run game, then I would say you really don’t know football," he said. "I wouldn’t say I am the issue."

A week later, Johnson was benched for Ringer in the fourth quarter of the Titans' Week 8 game against Indianapolis. "The Chris Johnson that we’re used to seeing, I don’t know why we’re not seeing him," NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe said after the Colts game. "Usually, when he got one on one, he could make a guy miss and it was going to be electric. Now he’s just curling up in a ball and looking for the softest spot on the field to lay down." Sharpe works for NFL Network's Playbook program, watching All-22 coaches tape. And the eye in the sky tends not to lie.

More theories for Johnson's struggles popped up over the course of the season. Some blamed the lockout. Others a new offensive coordinator. Johnson's conditioning was an oft-broached topic, as was the line play. In November, people around the league were wondering whether the Titans might cut Johnson after the season. He was playing that badly. Some folks legitimately believe Johnson has entered a state of decline.

"Is he a step slower? Yeah, I'm sure he is," said Munchak in January. "I don't know how you would measure that exactly, but I'm sure he has (lost speed)."

As someone who is interested in fantasy football, I find myself almost rooting for Johnson. He is an every-down back, and those don't grow on trees anymore. We also all saw Johnson take the NFL by storm in 2008 and 2009. He was so much fun to watch. I would love to see that again.

And I want to have a feel for whether it might happen.

I already wrote up two of Johnson's 2011 games for previous Re-Watching pieces. Links to those less comprehensive reviews can be found here and here. To form a stronger opinion, I picked five more: Week 9 versus Cincinnati (18 touches), Week 12 versus Tampa Bay (24 touches), Week 13 at Buffalo (24 touches), Week 15 at Indianapolis (23 touches), and Week 17 at Houston (19).

Keep in mind that three of the five games could be described as favorable matchups. Tampa Bay finished dead last in the NFL in run defense. Buffalo was 28th, and Indy 29th. Cincy and Houston had top-ten run defenses. The Bucs and Bills games were Johnson's best box scores of the year.

On the O-Line Woes

I charted 90 carries in the five games. Defenses got backfield penetration on 36 occasions, a high total (40 percent) and confirmation that Tennessee's offensive line didn't execute enough as a run-blocking unit. The old Chris Johnson excelled at making the initial defender miss, though, and turning negative runs into long ones. 2011 Johnson rarely made the first man miss. And I don't think it was because he couldn't anymore. I think it was because he didn't care to.

Pathetic Pass Blocking

One concern rarely broached is Johnson's pass blocking. He doesn't need to be a sensational blocker if he's posing a dynamic running and receiving threat, but Johnson's blitz-pickup efficacy can affect his playing time. And it also provides a solid clue as to whether his heart was in it on a down-to-down basis. I found Johnson's pass blocking to be thoroughly pathetic in the five games.

Charting 31 opportunities, I credited Johnson with a measly six effective pass blocks. 13 times, Johnson appeared to take a pass-blocking stance but did not make contact with an oncoming defender. This occurred either because he had no interest in blocking, or a defender did not race directly at him. I charted Johnson with 12 unsuccessful pass blocks, meaning he did identify a blitzer but did not block him. Johnson's poor blocking contributed to three sacks in the five games.

The Titans knew Johnson was blocking poorly and consistently pulled him for Javon Ringer on passing downs. Ringer is barely a replacement-level talent as a ball carrier and receiver. I'm not sure he's going to last much longer in the league. But Ringer is a far better pass blocker than Johnson. OC Chris Palmer has extensive background in the run-and-shoot, and increasingly used four- and five-wide sets down the stretch last season. Tennessee is going to throw the ball an awful lot more in 2012, and it will need its tailback to be able to block. Or at least to be willing.

Running out of Bounds

I harkened back to Cosell's in-season comments calling Johnson an "avoid-contact runner" when viewing him run out of bounds in the five games, rather than turn upfield for additional yards. The tendency was especially evident in the Bengals and Bucs games. Johnson didn't want to get hit, so he'd use the sideline as a safe haven on plays to the perimeter. This goes hand in hand with the undeniable fact that Johnson refused to finish runs in 2011. It was a problem all year long.

What made Johnson so special during his first three NFL seasons was his ability to combine electrifying long speed and cuts with instinctive, fearless inside running and physicality at the end of runs. Johnson is 5-foot-11 and about 200 pounds. Coming out of East Carolina, many teams graded him as a future change-of-pace back. The long speed was great, but he took the league by storm because he was so good between the tackles, created space for himself regularly, and packed legitimate pop. He suddenly morphed into the league's least physical back in 2011.

Will Johnson Turn it Around?

Like Randy Moss after he was traded out of Oakland, and even Michael Vick when he got out of prison, Johnson has plenty of juice left in his tank. His 2011 problems had to do with effort. I can say this with supreme confidence after witnessing nearly all of his games between last year's in-season observations and subsequent offseason reviews. There certainly were flashes of it against the Bills and Bucs. Johnson still cuts on a dime and can outrace defensive backs when he feels up for it. Whether he turns his career back around and has a rebound season is entirely up to him.

Johnson's improved offseason commitment level has been widely billed as a promising sign -- an indication that he wants "it" again. Perhaps that is the case, or perhaps he'll revert to his on-field shell after the first big hit. As far as predictive analysis goes, spring puff pieces are hit or miss. Johnson was the subject of many.

The fact that Johnson quit last season -- in my opinion -- makes him a fantasy player I will likely look to avoid in 2012. You're just not going to find many running backs who can match his potential workload and god-given talent. Undoubtedly, it's an enticing combination.

But I think that, because Johnson showed the frightening capacity to flip his own off-switch, drafting him for your fantasy football team this year requires a leap of faith.