Flex Appeal
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Something I’ve noticed over the last few years is that most fantasy owners don’t put much thought into the position they should be targeting for their flex slot.
Generally, running back seems like the logical way to go, but with the question marks at the position; and considering the depth at wide receiver and emergence of the tight end position, it’s a discussion worth having.
The issue is that it’s not as cut and dry at it seems. Considering how many teams are in your league, which positions are flex eligible, the number of starting slots for each position, and, of course, the league scoring is key.
Today, I’ll tell you the right positions – and players – you should be targeting in four popular formats.
Note: We’ll assume, for the purpose of this article, that only RB, WR, and TE are Flex eligible. I considered doubling the workload and showing charts for 16-team leagues, but the results are so similar to 12-teamers, that I didn’t bother. Those of you in 14 or 16-team leagues can apply the conclusions found below to your leagues with confidence.
12 teams – Non-PPR – 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
Referring to the most-recent Rotoworld projections, we see the following:
| Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
| RB25 |
160 |
Spiller |
|
WR25 |
143 |
S. Johnson |
|
TE13 |
104 |
Cook |
| RB26 |
159 |
McGahee |
|
WR26 |
142 |
Garcon |
|
TE14 |
103 |
Olsen |
| RB27 |
155 |
Greene |
|
WR27 |
142 |
A. Brown |
|
TE15 |
102 |
Keller |
| RB28 |
152 |
Wells |
|
WR28 |
141 |
D. Jackson |
|
TE16 |
98 |
Celek |
| RB29 |
141 |
Ridley |
|
WR29 |
137 |
T. Smith |
|
TE17 |
91 |
Gresham |
| RB30 |
141 |
Ingram |
|
WR30 |
135 |
Collie |
|
TE18 |
88 |
Daniels |
| RB31 |
139 |
Redman |
|
WR31 |
134 |
Meachem |
|
TE19 |
88 |
Fleener |
| RB32 |
139 |
D. Williams |
|
WR32 |
133 |
D. Moore |
|
TE20 |
86 |
H. Miller |
| RB33 |
135 |
D. Brown |
|
WR33 |
132 |
Wayne |
|
TE21 |
85 |
Lewis |
| RB34 |
123 |
Tate |
|
WR34 |
128 |
Holmes |
|
TE22 |
83 |
Bennett |
| RB35 |
121 |
Green-Ellis |
|
WR35 |
125 |
Britt |
|
TE23 |
79 |
Moeaki |
| RB36 |
120 |
Helu |
|
WR36 |
122 |
Heyward-Bey |
|
TE24 |
77 |
Housler |
What we’re looking for here is the top 12 point totals, as they will make for the best-case flex options. Heading into this draft, you should be leaning towards three running backs in your starting lineup, but it’s not a big deal if you go with what is essentially a WR3. Notice that, although eight running backs make up the top 12 point totals, wideout No. 36 is only 17 points behind RB32 – our lowest-scoring flex play. Backup tight ends are no threat to their counterparts at running back and wide receiver and should never be considered for the flex spot in this format.
Before I move on, it’s important to note that this process will assume that everyone drafting is relatively competent. On occasion, you might find yourself in a league where a top-20 running back or wideout falls to you when you’re selecting a flex. When that happens, compare where you have that player ranked to the projected points shown in the charts you’ll see here today. In our first example, top-20 backs and wideouts are obviously good flex plays, but, our No. 3 overall tight end (138 points) is on the fringe.
12 teams – Non-PPR – 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
RB25
|
160
|
Spiller
|
|
WR37
|
120
|
Little
|
|
TE13
|
104
|
Cook
|
|
RB26
|
159
|
McGahee
|
|
WR38
|
118
|
Crabtree
|
|
TE14
|
103
|
Olsen
|
|
RB27
|
155
|
Greene
|
|
WR39
|
117
|
Rice
|
|
TE15
|
102
|
Keller
|
|
RB28
|
152
|
Wells
|
|
WR40
|
113
|
S. Moss
|
|
TE16
|
98
|
Celek
|
|
RB29
|
141
|
Ridley
|
|
WR41
|
109
|
M. Williams
|
|
TE17
|
91
|
Gresham
|
|
RB30
|
141
|
Ingram
|
|
WR42
|
108
|
Boldin
|
|
TE18
|
88
|
Daniels
|
|
RB31
|
139
|
Redman
|
|
WR43
|
107
|
Ma. Floyd
|
|
TE19
|
88
|
Fleener
|
|
RB32
|
139
|
D. Williams
|
|
WR44
|
106
|
L. Moore
|
|
TE20
|
86
|
H. Miller
|
|
RB33
|
135
|
D. Brown
|
|
WR45
|
105
|
R. Moss
|
|
TE21
|
85
|
Lewis
|
|
RB34
|
123
|
Tate
|
|
WR46
|
105
|
LaFell
|
|
TE22
|
83
|
Bennett
|
|
RB35
|
121
|
Green-Ellis
|
|
WR47
|
104
|
Washington
|
|
TE23
|
79
|
Moeaki
|
|
RB36
|
120
|
Helu
|
|
WR48
|
103
|
Wright
|
|
TE24
|
77
|
Housler
|
The 2RB/3WR/1TE/1Flex format is quickly gaining popularity. As you see from our chart, deciding on where to go for your flex is very easy in this type of league. Because wide receivers ranked 25-through-36 are now forced into starting lineups, the third dozen set of running backs is now the easy choice for your flex position. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking the impact of that third wide receiver slot. You’ll be playing at a major disadvantage with a wideout or tight end in the flex.
12 teams – PPR – 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
RB25
|
179
|
Greene
|
|
WR25
|
214
|
A. Brown
|
|
TE13
|
163
|
Cook
|
|
RB26
|
176
|
McGahee
|
|
WR26
|
211
|
Collie
|
|
TE14
|
161
|
Keller
|
|
RB27
|
175
|
Turner
|
|
WR27
|
210
|
Garcon
|
|
TE15
|
159
|
Celek
|
|
RB28
|
169
|
D. Brown
|
|
WR28
|
208
|
V. Jackson
|
|
TE16
|
159
|
Olsen
|
|
RB29
|
165
|
Wells
|
|
WR29
|
205
|
D. Jackson
|
|
TE17
|
149
|
Gresham
|
|
RB30
|
164
|
Ingram
|
|
WR30
|
202
|
Wayne
|
|
TE18
|
145
|
Daniels
|
|
RB31
|
160
|
Redman
|
|
WR31
|
194
|
Meachem
|
|
TE19
|
143
|
H. Miller
|
|
RB32
|
154
|
D. Williams
|
|
WR32
|
191
|
T. Smith
|
|
TE20
|
139
|
Fleener
|
|
RB33
|
153
|
Ridley
|
|
WR33
|
190
|
Little
|
|
TE21
|
136
|
Lewis
|
|
RB34
|
148
|
Helu
|
|
WR34
|
189
|
Holmes
|
|
TE22
|
131
|
Bennett
|
|
RB35
|
146
|
P. Thomas
|
|
WR35
|
184
|
D. Moore
|
|
TE23
|
124
|
Moeaki
|
|
RB36
|
146
|
Hillman
|
|
WR36
|
182
|
Crabtree
|
|
TE24
|
119
|
Pitta
|
Next up, we make the switch to PPR leagues. This chart shows the massive boost wide receivers and tight ends see when one point is awarded for each reception. In this format, running backs have a lot less value. In fact, once you get your top two backs (preferably in the first two or three rounds), you don’t have to worry about adding depth for a while. Opposite of what we talked about in our previous example, not going with a wide receiver in your flex in this format puts you at a disadvantage. Notice that tight ends begin to enter the flex conversation when the move is made to PPR.
12 teams – PPR – 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
| Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
| RB25 |
179 |
Greene |
|
WR37 |
181 |
Britt |
|
TE13 |
163 |
Cook |
| RB26 |
176 |
McGahee |
|
WR38 |
178 |
Heyward-Bey |
|
TE14 |
161 |
Keller |
| RB27 |
175 |
Turner |
|
WR39 |
177 |
S. Moss |
|
TE15 |
159 |
Celek |
| RB28 |
169 |
D. Brown |
|
WR40 |
172 |
Rice |
|
TE16 |
159 |
Olsen |
| RB29 |
165 |
Wells |
|
WR41 |
168 |
Boldin |
|
TE17 |
149 |
Gresham |
| RB30 |
164 |
Ingram |
|
WR42 |
163 |
M. Williams |
|
TE18 |
145 |
Daniels |
| RB31 |
160 |
Redman |
|
WR43 |
160 |
L. Moore |
|
TE19 |
143 |
H. Miller |
| RB32 |
154 |
D. Williams |
|
WR44 |
159 |
Wright |
|
TE20 |
139 |
Fleener |
| RB33 |
153 |
Ridley |
|
WR45 |
157 |
LaFell |
|
TE21 |
136 |
Lewis |
| RB34 |
148 |
Helu |
|
WR46 |
156 |
Bess |
|
TE22 |
131 |
Bennett |
| RB35 |
146 |
P. Thomas |
|
WR47 |
155 |
Washington |
|
TE23 |
124 |
Moeaki |
| RB36 |
146 |
Hillman |
|
WR48 |
153 |
Blackmon |
|
TE24 |
119 |
Pitta |
Moving to PPR leagues that use three wide receivers, we see – like earlier – that running back depth becomes more important. Our chart shows six running backs and six wide receivers as the ideal flex contributors. This is the only format we’ve talked about where you can’t go wrong with a back or wideout in the flex. In fact, this is the tight end position’s best shot at flex consideration, as well. Note that four tight ends outside the top 12 are within four total points of our last flex player. Considering some margin of error, no one could fault you for plugging a player from any of these three positions into your flex in this format.
Something I’ve noticed over the last few years is that most fantasy owners don’t put much thought into the position they should be targeting for their flex slot.
Generally, running back seems like the logical way to go, but with the question marks at the position; and considering the depth at wide receiver and emergence of the tight end position, it’s a discussion worth having.
The issue is that it’s not as cut and dry at it seems. Considering how many teams are in your league, which positions are flex eligible, the number of starting slots for each position, and, of course, the league scoring is key.
Today, I’ll tell you the right positions – and players – you should be targeting in four popular formats.
Note: We’ll assume, for the purpose of this article, that only RB, WR, and TE are Flex eligible. I considered doubling the workload and showing charts for 16-team leagues, but the results are so similar to 12-teamers, that I didn’t bother. Those of you in 14 or 16-team leagues can apply the conclusions found below to your leagues with confidence.
12 teams – Non-PPR – 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
Referring to the most-recent Rotoworld projections, we see the following:
| Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
| RB25 |
160 |
Spiller |
|
WR25 |
143 |
S. Johnson |
|
TE13 |
104 |
Cook |
| RB26 |
159 |
McGahee |
|
WR26 |
142 |
Garcon |
|
TE14 |
103 |
Olsen |
| RB27 |
155 |
Greene |
|
WR27 |
142 |
A. Brown |
|
TE15 |
102 |
Keller |
| RB28 |
152 |
Wells |
|
WR28 |
141 |
D. Jackson |
|
TE16 |
98 |
Celek |
| RB29 |
141 |
Ridley |
|
WR29 |
137 |
T. Smith |
|
TE17 |
91 |
Gresham |
| RB30 |
141 |
Ingram |
|
WR30 |
135 |
Collie |
|
TE18 |
88 |
Daniels |
| RB31 |
139 |
Redman |
|
WR31 |
134 |
Meachem |
|
TE19 |
88 |
Fleener |
| RB32 |
139 |
D. Williams |
|
WR32 |
133 |
D. Moore |
|
TE20 |
86 |
H. Miller |
| RB33 |
135 |
D. Brown |
|
WR33 |
132 |
Wayne |
|
TE21 |
85 |
Lewis |
| RB34 |
123 |
Tate |
|
WR34 |
128 |
Holmes |
|
TE22 |
83 |
Bennett |
| RB35 |
121 |
Green-Ellis |
|
WR35 |
125 |
Britt |
|
TE23 |
79 |
Moeaki |
| RB36 |
120 |
Helu |
|
WR36 |
122 |
Heyward-Bey |
|
TE24 |
77 |
Housler |
What we’re looking for here is the top 12 point totals, as they will make for the best-case flex options. Heading into this draft, you should be leaning towards three running backs in your starting lineup, but it’s not a big deal if you go with what is essentially a WR3. Notice that, although eight running backs make up the top 12 point totals, wideout No. 36 is only 17 points behind RB32 – our lowest-scoring flex play. Backup tight ends are no threat to their counterparts at running back and wide receiver and should never be considered for the flex spot in this format.
Before I move on, it’s important to note that this process will assume that everyone drafting is relatively competent. On occasion, you might find yourself in a league where a top-20 running back or wideout falls to you when you’re selecting a flex. When that happens, compare where you have that player ranked to the projected points shown in the charts you’ll see here today. In our first example, top-20 backs and wideouts are obviously good flex plays, but, our No. 3 overall tight end (138 points) is on the fringe.
12 teams – Non-PPR – 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
RB25
|
160
|
Spiller
|
|
WR37
|
120
|
Little
|
|
TE13
|
104
|
Cook
|
|
RB26
|
159
|
McGahee
|
|
WR38
|
118
|
Crabtree
|
|
TE14
|
103
|
Olsen
|
|
RB27
|
155
|
Greene
|
|
WR39
|
117
|
Rice
|
|
TE15
|
102
|
Keller
|
|
RB28
|
152
|
Wells
|
|
WR40
|
113
|
S. Moss
|
|
TE16
|
98
|
Celek
|
|
RB29
|
141
|
Ridley
|
|
WR41
|
109
|
M. Williams
|
|
TE17
|
91
|
Gresham
|
|
RB30
|
141
|
Ingram
|
|
WR42
|
108
|
Boldin
|
|
TE18
|
88
|
Daniels
|
|
RB31
|
139
|
Redman
|
|
WR43
|
107
|
Ma. Floyd
|
|
TE19
|
88
|
Fleener
|
|
RB32
|
139
|
D. Williams
|
|
WR44
|
106
|
L. Moore
|
|
TE20
|
86
|
H. Miller
|
|
RB33
|
135
|
D. Brown
|
|
WR45
|
105
|
R. Moss
|
|
TE21
|
85
|
Lewis
|
|
RB34
|
123
|
Tate
|
|
WR46
|
105
|
LaFell
|
|
TE22
|
83
|
Bennett
|
|
RB35
|
121
|
Green-Ellis
|
|
WR47
|
104
|
Washington
|
|
TE23
|
79
|
Moeaki
|
|
RB36
|
120
|
Helu
|
|
WR48
|
103
|
Wright
|
|
TE24
|
77
|
Housler
|
The 2RB/3WR/1TE/1Flex format is quickly gaining popularity. As you see from our chart, deciding on where to go for your flex is very easy in this type of league. Because wide receivers ranked 25-through-36 are now forced into starting lineups, the third dozen set of running backs is now the easy choice for your flex position. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking the impact of that third wide receiver slot. You’ll be playing at a major disadvantage with a wideout or tight end in the flex.
12 teams – PPR – 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
Pos
|
Pts
|
Player
|
|
RB25
|
179
|
Greene
|
|
WR25
|
214
|
A. Brown
|
|
TE13
|
163
|
Cook
|
|
RB26
|
176
|
McGahee
|
|
WR26
|
211
|
Collie
|
|
TE14
|
161
|
Keller
|
|
RB27
|
175
|
Turner
|
|
WR27
|
210
|
Garcon
|
|
TE15
|
159
|
Celek
|
|
RB28
|
169
|
D. Brown
|
|
WR28
|
208
|
V. Jackson
|
|
TE16
|
159
|
Olsen
|
|
RB29
|
165
|
Wells
|
|
WR29
|
205
|
D. Jackson
|
|
TE17
|
149
|
Gresham
|
|
RB30
|
164
|
Ingram
|
|
WR30
|
202
|
Wayne
|
|
TE18
|
145
|
Daniels
|
|
RB31
|
160
|
Redman
|
|
WR31
|
194
|
Meachem
|
|
TE19
|
143
|
H. Miller
|
|
RB32
|
154
|
D. Williams
|
|
WR32
|
191
|
T. Smith
|
|
TE20
|
139
|
Fleener
|
|
RB33
|
153
|
Ridley
|
|
WR33
|
190
|
Little
|
|
TE21
|
136
|
Lewis
|
|
RB34
|
148
|
Helu
|
|
WR34
|
189
|
Holmes
|
|
TE22
|
131
|
Bennett
|
|
RB35
|
146
|
P. Thomas
|
|
WR35
|
184
|
D. Moore
|
|
TE23
|
124
|
Moeaki
|
|
RB36
|
146
|
Hillman
|
|
WR36
|
182
|
Crabtree
|
|
TE24
|
119
|
Pitta
|
Next up, we make the switch to PPR leagues. This chart shows the massive boost wide receivers and tight ends see when one point is awarded for each reception. In this format, running backs have a lot less value. In fact, once you get your top two backs (preferably in the first two or three rounds), you don’t have to worry about adding depth for a while. Opposite of what we talked about in our previous example, not going with a wide receiver in your flex in this format puts you at a disadvantage. Notice that tight ends begin to enter the flex conversation when the move is made to PPR.
12 teams – PPR – 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
| Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
|
Pos |
Pts |
Player |
| RB25 |
179 |
Greene |
|
WR37 |
181 |
Britt |
|
TE13 |
163 |
Cook |
| RB26 |
176 |
McGahee |
|
WR38 |
178 |
Heyward-Bey |
|
TE14 |
161 |
Keller |
| RB27 |
175 |
Turner |
|
WR39 |
177 |
S. Moss |
|
TE15 |
159 |
Celek |
| RB28 |
169 |
D. Brown |
|
WR40 |
172 |
Rice |
|
TE16 |
159 |
Olsen |
| RB29 |
165 |
Wells |
|
WR41 |
168 |
Boldin |
|
TE17 |
149 |
Gresham |
| RB30 |
164 |
Ingram |
|
WR42 |
163 |
M. Williams |
|
TE18 |
145 |
Daniels |
| RB31 |
160 |
Redman |
|
WR43 |
160 |
L. Moore |
|
TE19 |
143 |
H. Miller |
| RB32 |
154 |
D. Williams |
|
WR44 |
159 |
Wright |
|
TE20 |
139 |
Fleener |
| RB33 |
153 |
Ridley |
|
WR45 |
157 |
LaFell |
|
TE21 |
136 |
Lewis |
| RB34 |
148 |
Helu |
|
WR46 |
156 |
Bess |
|
TE22 |
131 |
Bennett |
| RB35 |
146 |
P. Thomas |
|
WR47 |
155 |
Washington |
|
TE23 |
124 |
Moeaki |
| RB36 |
146 |
Hillman |
|
WR48 |
153 |
Blackmon |
|
TE24 |
119 |
Pitta |
Moving to PPR leagues that use three wide receivers, we see – like earlier – that running back depth becomes more important. Our chart shows six running backs and six wide receivers as the ideal flex contributors. This is the only format we’ve talked about where you can’t go wrong with a back or wideout in the flex. In fact, this is the tight end position’s best shot at flex consideration, as well. Note that four tight ends outside the top 12 are within four total points of our last flex player. Considering some margin of error, no one could fault you for plugging a player from any of these three positions into your flex in this format.
Mike Clay is a football writer for Rotoworld.com and the Founder/Managing Editor of Pro Football Focus Fantasy. He can be found
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Mike Clay