These rankings are likely to differ greatly from fantasy football cheatsheets you find elsewhere on the web and magazine storeshelves. The primary difference is my low quarterback slotting based on VBD (Value Based Drafting). I explained my quarterback take here and here. Rather than lead with another exhausting intro, let's cut to the chase for my latest rankings update.
Editor's Note: For the premier all-purpose fantasy football preparation mechanism on the world wide web, bang this link.
First Round
1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has made 30 starts over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.
2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.
3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 7th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to make McFadden a top-three pick as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries is clear for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.
4. Ray Rice (ADP: 2nd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 running back to emerge in Baltimore. Third-round pick Bernard Pierce can't separate himself from UDFA Bobby Rainey.
5. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him into upper-echelon fantasy value, and he's impressed with improved quickness and burst in August after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of league suspension. The installation of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will make Lynch all the more dangerous, and potentially devastating. OL coach Tom Cable's zone-run scheme showed the ability to take over games last season, and a dual-threat quarterback will increase the efficacy of outside zone runs. Look for Lynch to record a career-high yards-per-carry average this season.
6. Chris Johnson (ADP: 8th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and can say with certainty Johnson still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. I remain concerned that his heart will stay in it as Tennessee's interior offensive line continues to allow constant penetration. He's still a monster talent slated for a monster workload, though, and can be every bit worth the risk in the middle of the first round.
7. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed QB. For "last year's stats" guys: Johnson scored over three more fantasy points per week than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.
8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 12th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.
9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners through three weeks of preseason. Having dropped at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while shedding the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round fantasy grade on S-Jax, but he can be had in the second.
10. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable competitor for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves. Through three exhibition games, J.C. is averaging 5.08 yards a carry and 6.06 yards per touch.
11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 14th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument applies much more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.
12. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.
Second Round
13. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.
14. Julio Jones (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season. Through roughly six preseason quarters, Jones has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown.
15. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the featured runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. F-Jax should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.
16. Matt Forte (ADP: 11th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.
17. Doug Martin (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. The Bucs know it, giving Martin six full possessions as the every-down back in their third preseason game, while Blount played a series. At worst, Martin will open the year as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20-plus times a game. He is way better than Blount. RG Davin Joseph's year-ending knee injury is only a slight concern. While Joseph has a reputation as a mauler, Pro Football Focus graded him 68th out of 78 qualifying guards in run blocking last year.
18. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making him a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard efforts among his last four "real" games and preseason circus grabs in double coverage. Matt Schaub's surgical August instills even more confidence.
19. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.
20. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I think Julio Jones has the best shot at unseating Calvin Johnson for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout season.
21. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly placed passes, and Dalton has shown a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.
22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his late fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.
23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks has resumed practicing in 11-on-11s and will be 100 percent for Week 1.
24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 13th overall) -- Peterson's recovery has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his top-of-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to both meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson isn't going to be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact.
These rankings are likely to differ greatly from fantasy football cheatsheets you find elsewhere on the web and magazine storeshelves. The primary difference is my low quarterback slotting based on VBD (Value Based Drafting). I explained my quarterback take here and here. Rather than lead with another exhausting intro, let's cut to the chase for my latest rankings update.
Editor's Note: For the premier all-purpose fantasy football preparation mechanism on the world wide web, bang this link.
First Round
1. Arian Foster (ADP: 1st overall) -- Foster brings to the table elite talent and versatility, but workload and scheme separate him from McCoy and Rice. Foster has made 30 starts over the past three years, in them averaging 24.9 touches a game. McCoy has a 19.5-touch average across 34 starts. Rice has averaged 22.3 touches per start over those three seasons. The Texans have the run-heaviest offense in football, and their zone-blocking system is a well-oiled machine.
2. LeSean McCoy (ADP: 4th overall) -- McCoy doesn't get the rock quite as often as Rice or McFadden, but he's more efficient with his touches and plays in an offense I think will explode in a post-hype year. McCoy's fantasy running back ranking has improved in each of his three NFL seasons, and he's still just 24 years old. He's the only player I'd briefly consider taking over Foster.
3. Darren McFadden (ADP: 7th overall) -- Though its annual occurrence gives the mirage of a trend, DMC's injury history is rooted in bad luck. In exchange for a shot at the league-winning reward, I'm willing to make McFadden a top-three pick as an insanely talented every-down back whose path to goal-line carries is clear for the first time in his career. McFadden is so good that he could miss two games and still outscore the running back field. He is an awesome player.
4. Ray Rice (ADP: 2nd overall) -- Rice doesn't have quite the juice Foster, McCoy, and McFadden offer as a sheer running talent. But he is a durable workhorse who quietly may be headed for a career high in snaps considering the failure of a No. 2 running back to emerge in Baltimore. Third-round pick Bernard Pierce can't separate himself from UDFA Bobby Rainey.
5. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Lynch's position and volume lock him into upper-echelon fantasy value, and he's impressed with improved quickness and burst in August after cutting offseason weight. Despite his July DUI, Lynch no longer appears in danger of league suspension. The installation of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson will make Lynch all the more dangerous, and potentially devastating. OL coach Tom Cable's zone-run scheme showed the ability to take over games last season, and a dual-threat quarterback will increase the efficacy of outside zone runs. Look for Lynch to record a career-high yards-per-carry average this season.
6. Chris Johnson (ADP: 8th overall) -- I wrote a late-July column charting Johnson's 2011 snaps and detailing the collection of excuses offered for his career-worst year. I've watched his preseason and can say with certainty Johnson still possesses uncommon elusiveness and burst. I remain concerned that his heart will stay in it as Tennessee's interior offensive line continues to allow constant penetration. He's still a monster talent slated for a monster workload, though, and can be every bit worth the risk in the middle of the first round.
7. Calvin Johnson (ADP: 6th overall) -- Megatron is the only receiver valuable enough to draft in the first round, and that's because he's head and shoulders above the rest. He's the most physically dominant wideout in the game playing in the league's pass-heaviest offense with the NFL's strongest-armed QB. For "last year's stats" guys: Johnson scored over three more fantasy points per week than the No. 2 receiver (Jordy Nelson). Megatron gives you a huge edge.
8. DeMarco Murray (ADP: 12th overall) -- Dallas' interior line is a concern, but Murray lacks any hint of competition for carries and can compensate with pure volume. Assuming he gets good luck and stays healthy, Murray is a darkhorse to lead the league in rushing attempts. The Cowboys' passing game will likely start slow with Jason Witten and Miles Austin nursing injuries. Murray can be the early-season offensive centerpiece, and his passing-game role is sure to rise.
9. Steven Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- I've found Jackson to be among the league's most impressive runners through three weeks of preseason. Having dropped at least ten pounds, S-Jax has displayed improved quickness and speed while shedding the "hop-step" behind the line of scrimmage he bad-habited even in his prime. Jeff Fisher is going to run the ball early and often in St. Louis. I think Jackson may well approach the 379 touches Fisher gave Eddie George in his own age-29 season. I have a first-round fantasy grade on S-Jax, but he can be had in the second.
10. Jamaal Charles (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- The Texans tied the Broncos for the 2011 league lead in rushing attempts. Denver will be a pass-first offense as Peyton Manning replaces Tim Tebow, and Kansas City now may be Houston's most viable competitor for the NFL's run-heaviest team. Workload should not be a major issue for Charles, who has avoided training-camp setbacks following last September's ACL tear while rediscovering pre-injury explosion and moves. Through three exhibition games, J.C. is averaging 5.08 yards a carry and 6.06 yards per touch.
11. Jimmy Graham (ADP: 14th overall) -- The first-round quarterback argument applies much more smoothly to tight ends. For the last-year's-stats crowd, Gronk scored nearly six more points per week than the No. 3 tight end. Graham, who finished second, scored 2.5 more points per week than No. 3. These tight ends tilt weekly scoring in a particular owner's favor and are unto a tier of their own. I like Graham to outscore Gronkowski ever so slightly because he's the clear-cut No. 1 option in his offense and blocks less. They are both late first-round picks.
12. Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Barring injury, Gronkowski and Graham's 2011 catch and yardage totals are reliable barometers as to their 2012 production. Aside from perhaps Gronk's TDs, I don't think there will be dramatic downturn from either of their final-year stats. I think Antonio Gates has an outside chance to approach Gronk and Graham's catches and yards, and Aaron Hernandez, Jermichael Finley, and perhaps Vernon Davis will at least keep you competitive. But Gronk and Graham are weekly matchup tilters and every bit worth top-12 picks.
Second Round
13. Ryan Mathews (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fantasy footballers have every right to be shaken by Mathews' fractured collarbone considering his past durability woes. But the facts of the matter are it was a hard-luck injury, and Mathews is expected to miss no more than two games. Mathews was a top-seven weekly running back scorer with Mike Tolbert in the 2011 picture and won't struggle for top-five per-week statistics with Tolbert gone to Carolina. Commonly available throughout the second round of drafts, Mathews is a value pick anywhere beyond the top 14.
14. Julio Jones (ADP: Early 2nd round) -- If any receiver can give Calvin Johnson a run for the 2012 fantasy scoring lead, Jones is the NFL's best bet as a freakish talent becoming the featured player in a pass-first, up-tempo offense. Julio is going to shred defenses this season. Through roughly six preseason quarters, Jones has 13 catches for 240 yards and a touchdown.
15. Fred Jackson (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Jackson isn't a "sexy" pick as a 31-year-old running back who plays in Buffalo. But the preseason has shown he remains locked in as the featured runner ahead of C.J. Spiller. Chan Gailey's Pistol Spread offense floods the field with four and five receivers, creating running lanes. F-Jax should be secure as a top-12 fantasy back.
16. Matt Forte (ADP: 11th overall) -- The No. 10 fantasy pick seems rich for a back who never got goal-line carries in the first place, and now threatens to lose precious open-field touches to Michael Bush. The Bears may look to "preserve" Forte a bit after committing big money to him.
17. Doug Martin (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- I've viewed each of Martin and LeGarrette Blount's August snaps, and there is no question that the rookie brings more to the table in every facet of the game. The Bucs know it, giving Martin six full possessions as the every-down back in their third preseason game, while Blount played a series. At worst, Martin will open the year as a 14-18 touch-per-week RB2 in Greg Schiano's run-first, smash-mouth offense. By October, Martin should be handling the ball 20-plus times a game. He is way better than Blount. RG Davin Joseph's year-ending knee injury is only a slight concern. While Joseph has a reputation as a mauler, Pro Football Focus graded him 68th out of 78 qualifying guards in run blocking last year.
18. Andre Johnson (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- This guy was a first-round pick last year. Johnson's 12 missed games over the past two seasons combined with an early-camp groin injury appear to have sunk his Average Draft Position, making him a value pick. He's lost nothing off his fastball, evidenced by three 90-plus yard efforts among his last four "real" games and preseason circus grabs in double coverage. Matt Schaub's surgical August instills even more confidence.
19. Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: Late 2nd round) -- Fitz drafters and keeper-league owners need John Skelton to win Arizona's quarterback job. The Cardinals' signal caller must accomplish two tasks: 1) Stand tall as his pocket inevitably collapses behind a sieve of an offensive line, and 2) Get the ball to Fitzgerald. When Skelton played more extensively in 2011 games, Fitz averaged 94 yards per contest. His per-game average fell to 82 yards with Kevin Kolb under center.
20. Dez Bryant (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I think Julio Jones has the best shot at unseating Calvin Johnson for the receiver fantasy scoring lead. I think Dez is the best bet to challenge for Johnson's receiving touchdown crown. Particularly with Jason Witten (spleen) and Miles Austin (hamstring) nursing worrisome injuries, Bryant is headed for a target-heavy breakout season.
21. A.J. Green (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Andy Dalton's rough preseason is cause for some pause, but Green is dynamic enough to be quarterback-proof. Green can "go get" poorly placed passes, and Dalton has shown a willingness in August to throw it to him up for grabs. Green is a sneaky candidate to lead the league in targets. The Bengals really have no one else.
22. Antonio Gates (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Fantasy owners should wait until the third round to even begin considering Gates in light of his late fourth-round Average Draft Position, but I'm confident he'll meet expectations and then some. Philip Rivers has lost something off his deep ball, and Gates is still capable of dominating underneath. I expect him to lead San Diego in pass targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, and to rank third among fantasy tight ends.
23. Hakeem Nicks (ADP: Early 4th round) -- Even after Victor Cruz's breakout year, Nicks is the Giants' best receiver. I think he's a value pick at his current ADP. His spring foot injury no longer an issue, Nicks has resumed practicing in 11-on-11s and will be 100 percent for Week 1.
24. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 13th overall) -- Peterson's recovery has proceeded smoothly by all accounts, but I remain skeptical that he stands any chance of living up to his top-of-round-two Average Draft Position coming off ACL and MCL tears with damage to both meniscuses. He's someone I'd let another owner draft. Peterson isn't going to be a full-time back early in the season even if he's active for games, and the possibility of setbacks remains as he begins to face contact.
Third Round
25. Cam Newton (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Forget, for a minute, last year's rushing TDs and whether they're "repeatable." Newton is the most physically dominant young player in football, and I think it's only a matter of time (this year or next) before he takes over as the overall fantasy scoring leader and consensus No. 1 pick. Perhaps I'm a year early, but I'll be betting on this player going forward. I like Cam as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, passing Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
26. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 3rd overall) -- Rodgers is the best player in the NFL. I have a third-round fantasy grade on him because he plays a deep position in a passing league where each year numerous passers emerge from the middle- and late-round woodwork to score at "elite" rates. I think Newton, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Vick, Stafford, and Ryan will provide first-tier 2012 production. I'd much rather grab Vick or Ryan while trying for this year's Stafford or Newton later in the draft than blow my early-round wad on a quarterback. It's basic Supply & Demand.
27. Tom Brady (ADP: 5th overall) -- I was asked recently which quarterback I think offers the highest upside at quarterback, which the highest "floor," and which the best combination of upside and floor. My answer to the latter two queries was Brady. I answered Newton to the first.
28. Drew Brees (ADP: 9th overall) -- Seven straight seasons of top-six quarterback stats lock in Brees as an elite producer even without Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks. The additional loss of Sean Payton is not a concern for Brees' fantasy outlook. OC Pete Carmichael returns, and the 2011 offense averaged 36 more yards and over seven more points per game with Carmichael calling plays. Carmichael did so from Week 7 on, after Payton blew out his knee on the sideline.
29. Michael Vick (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Vick's ADP has been torpedoed by a perfect storm of factors. One legion of owners simply does not believe in Vick. Never did. Another legion bought on Vick last season, and came away disappointed. A third legion has watched this year's preseason games. Vick got nicked up in each of the first two weeks, so he obviously can't stay healthy. Aggressive, forward-looking fantasy owners will pounce on Vick in the third or fourth round. He's a weekly difference maker, and he is the No. 1 value pick quarterback in 2012 drafts.
30. Matthew Stafford (ADP: 11th overall) -- I banged the table for Stafford as a value pick in 2011 drafts, and he rewarded "risk" takers with a top-five quarterback season at the cost of a seventh-round pick. Now a full year removed from injury, Stafford's ADP takes him off my radar. Fantasy drafts are a value game, and I'd rather target Vick or Matt Ryan several rounds later.
31. Percy Harvin (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Chris Wesseling recently suggested that the Vikings' 2012 offense could be a sneaky goldmine for fantasy value. My offseason game reviews of Christian Ponder uncovered a better-than-advertised arm, and Harvin was an absolute machine after Ponder took the reins as a rookie, averaging well over 100 yards per game with seven TDs in the final seven weeks. Harvin is being drafted as a WR2, but he's the rare receiver who can score like a WR1 in both PPR and non-PPR formats. Ponder is willing to force feed him the football.
32. Brandon Lloyd (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Patriots' offense will go deep more as Josh McDaniels replaces Bill O'Brien, and Lloyd will benefit from single coverage while defenses key up to stop Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Welker. Lloyd's Average Draft Position has risen with Rotoworld pumping him up, but he's still worth it in the mid to late fourth round. He'll be drafted as a WR2 and score like a WR1. I don't find Lloyd's quiet preseason (three targets, one catch) to be a concern because New England clearly has not taken these exhibition games seriously.
33. Steve Smith (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- Defenses schemed to take away Smith down last season's stretch, but it didn't end well for opponents. Carolina won four of its final six games -- three by blowout -- while playing playoff teams Detroit and Atlanta tough. Teams will have to figure out different ways to defend this offense, which ranked seventh in the NFL in 2011 and looks like a top-five unit for 2012. Smith returns as the featured player in Rob Chudzinski's vertical scheme.
34. Brandon Marshall (ADP: Early 3rd round) -- Hype was heavy on Marshall after a pair of long catches in Chicago's second preseason game, but there are a few things to remember. His value has always been superior in PPR compared to standard because he struggles in the red zone and doesn't go deep. I think Marshall is being a bit overrated in TD- and yard-heavy leagues.
35. Jordy Nelson (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- As alluded to previously, only Calvin Johnson scored more fantasy points among receivers than Nelson in 2011. While Nelson's efficiency stats were seemingly flukily off the charts, I think he has legitimately developed into a top-ten NFL wide receiver and will continue to outscore teammate Greg Jennings. Rodgers shows impressive trust in Nelson by throwing him the ball in up-for-grabs situations. I think he's every bit worth his ADP.
36. Jeremy Maclin (ADP: Late 5th round) -- In another case of fantasy leaguers relying on last year's stats, Maclin is shaping up as one of the premier value picks at receiver. We're quick to forget he had the look of a future All Pro in 2010, before Maclin's 2011 performance was affected by mysterious offseason illness, leading to significant weight loss. Maclin is Vick's best red-zone target, and clearly a more complete wideout than DeSean Jackson. He has a boatload of upside.
Fourth Round
37. Aaron Hernandez (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Reports out of Foxboro that Hernandez may emerge as Tom Brady's No. 1 pass option are promising, and there are few tight ends with higher "floors." When you get past Graham, Gronk, and Gates in your draft, Hernandez at the very least keeps you competitive week to week with a high volume of touches and plenty of playmaking ability in a high-scoring offense. If the beat writers' suggestions are correct, Hernandez will do much more than that. Jermichael Finley and Vernon Davis are next in line. Finley's on-field play can be maddeningly inconsistent, and San Francisco's run-first philosophy holds Davis back.
38. Antonio Brown (ADP: Early 5th round) -- The game tape shows Brown to be not as dynamic as Mike Wallace, and certainly not of similar ilk in the minds of opposing defensive coordinators. But we are projecting stats here, not debating the on-field impact of double and triple teams. Wallace's impending return is good news for Brown's fantasy outlook. Wallace will continue to command heavy coverage while Brown guts secondaries inside the numbers. I really like Brown as a WR2 in what may be a more pass-happy Pittsburgh offense than people expect. Brown has showed off his own impressive talent with 11 preseason receptions for 204 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 18.5 yards per catch.
39. Roddy White (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- The fantasy owners still drafting White in the second and third rounds haven't paid enough attention. While White should continue to see a healthy dose of targets in Atlanta's pass-heavy offense, even Roddy himself admits Julio Jones will be the featured player in Dirk Koetter's attack. Jones is a WR1. White is a middling WR2 who doesn't provide enough value to support his lofty late-August ADP.
40. Marques Colston (ADP: Late 4th round) -- Colston missed two games last year and still ranked 11th among fantasy receivers. He was eighth in wideout scoring per game. Those are legitimate WR1 numbers. Though Jimmy Graham has overtaken him as the Saints' top receiver, New Orleans' pass-happy attack allows plenty of volume for two upper-echelon fantasy producers. Be it with PPR or non-PPR settings, I think you're in great shape if you secure Colston as a WR2.
41. Victor Cruz (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- If Cruz has any edge on teammate Nicks, it is superior versatility. Cruz can play X, Z, and slot receiver, running a diverse and full route tree in OC Kevin Gilbride's vertical offense. Nicks primarily sticks to the sideline, securing just about everything thrown his way with body control and massive mitts. I think Nicks will score more like the WR1 this year, but Cruz won't be too far off. He's another terrific WR2 regardless of format.
42. Greg Jennings (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- A precision route runner who moves around the formation more than you might think, Jennings was a top-ten receiver before succumbing to a regular season-ending knee injury after 13 games in 2011. In these rankings, I gave Jordy Nelson the slight edge on Jennings in 2012 projected scoring. But I really think it could go either way.
43. Eric Decker (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Chris Wesseling has banged the table for Decker over Demaryius Thomas since long before camp, and after viewing each of the Broncos' three preseason games, I'm jumping on board. Thomas is still learning to run pass patterns, while Decker already knows how and is getting open at will. I think he can be a target monster this year.
44. Demaryius Thomas (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- I still love Thomas, though. An incredibly tightly wound receiver at 6-foot-3 and over 230 pounds, Thomas refuses to go down on first contact and his rapport with Peyton Manning should grow by the week. Based on physical tools and skill set, it's certainly fair to argue that Thomas offers superior upside to Decker. I think Demaryius' baseline is back-end WR2 stats. He looks to me like a "safe" fifth-round fantasy pick.
45. Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP: Mid 2nd round) -- Jones-Drew is still being drafted as if he's going to be just fine. The history of holdout running backs suggests there's little chance of that, and Rashad Jennings' impressive preseason bodes especially poorly for MJD's odds of seeing a workload remotely resembling last year's. There is a ton of risk in drafting Jones-Drew, and I don't think the possible reward is worth it. While his Average Draft Position has fallen five spots since just last Thursday, I wouldn't even consider taking MJD before the fourth round.
46. Darren Sproles (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- It's still difficult to grasp relying on a standard-league back as an every-week starter when he's not even a lock for 100-plus carries. A very new-wave player, Sproles qualifies because he catches so many passes and is second in line for red-zone work in New Orleans' backfield, essentially rotating there with Mark Ingram. Receptions gain more yards than rushing attempts, anyway, and Sproles has a "floor" of around 6-7 touchdowns.
47. Dwayne Bowe (ADP: Late 5th round)
48. Wes Welker (ADP: Mid 3rd round)
Fifth Round
49. Matt Ryan (ADP: Early 4th round)
50. Trent Richardson (ADP: Mid 3rd round) -- Throw out for a moment the fact that Richardson's knee problems are recurring. His absence from most of training camp and the entire preseason almost certainly removes Richardson from passing-down consideration, and there are no guarantees on his early-season, early-down workload, either. I love Richardson's ability and think his offensive line is capable of plowing big holes, but I don't think he's going to get the ball more than 16 times a game. He's an early fifth-round fantasy pick to me. A dicey, limited RB2.
51. Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP: Early 4th round)
52. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round)
53. Mike Wallace (ADP: Late 4th round) -- I love Wallace's talent. I think he is better than Antonio Brown. But after missing Todd Haley's offensive install by holding out of OTAs and the first month of camp, Wallace has just two weeks to learn Haley's system on the fly. My concern is Wallace will open the year as a clear-out receiver, running deep patterns to take coverage while Brown racks up stats underneath. I'm worried Wallace will be very inconsistent. I hope I'm wrong.
54. Vernon Davis (ADP: Mid 6th round)
55. Vincent Jackson (ADP: Early 6th round)
56. Kevin Smith (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Smith's Saturday night ankle injury is a reminder that durability is an ongoing concern. But he is a terrific fit for the Lions' passing-based offense and will play heavy doses of snaps so long as he's healthy. I'd take Smith in the late fifth or sixth round and feel good about him as my RB2. I'm really not worried about Mikel Leshoure.
57. Willis McGahee (ADP: Early 5th round)
58. Frank Gore (ADP: Early 4th round) -- I'd rather take Kendall Hunter in the 12th round. Gore's passing-game role has evaporated in Jim Harbaugh's offense (17 catches in '11), and he's slated to lose goal-line work to Brandon Jacobs while Hunter and LaMichael James steal open-field snaps. I think Gore has a shot at RB2 value for the season's first month and a half, but expect his field time to dwindle down the stretch with Hunter eventually taking over as lead back.
59. Stevan Ridley (ADP: Late 6th round) -- I must not have been the only one watching the Patriots' third preseason game Saturday night against the Bucs. Ridley's ADP has since leaped from the mid-seventh round into the late sixth. Ridley dominated first-team work with the Tom Brady group, piling up 16 carries for 87 yards (5.4 YPC) and multiple red-zone chances, including a goal-line score. He also caught three passes. Meanwhile, Shane Vereen exited with a foot injury. Ridley's week-to-week consistency may sting some during the season as the Patriots adapt their rushing attack to account for opponents based on game plans, but I think Ridley is going to score a lot of touchdowns and be much more effective than BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the same early-down plowhorse role. Ridley's violent, decisive running style is very easy to like.
60. Stevie Johnson (ADP: Early 6th round)
Sixth Round
61. Reggie Wayne (ADP: Late 6th round)
62. Torrey Smith (ADP: Late 6th round)
63. Reggie Bush (ADP: Late 4th round)
64. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I'm not adjusting Stewart's ranking, for now, but keep an eye on his ankle injury from Sunday night. He left on a cart and looks questionable for Week 1.
65. Peyton Hillis (ADP: Late 5th round)
66. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round)
67. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round)
68. Kenny Britt (ADP: Late 7th round)
69. Ryan Williams (ADP: Late 7th round)
70. Miles Austin (ADP: Late 6th round)
71. Mark Ingram (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Ingram interests me as a standard-league RB2/flex because he's looked awfully good in preseason action while retaining a stranglehold on red-zone carries in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Ingram disappointed a ton of owners last season, keeping the Average Draft Position very low on a legitimate threat for 10-12 rushing TDs.
72. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 7th round)
Seventh Round
73. Ben Tate (ADP: Early 7th round)
74. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Early 8th round)
75. Donald Brown (ADP: Mid 5th round)
76. Greg Little (ADP: Early 10th round)
77. Tony Romo (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Romo's Average Draft Position was screaming toward the fourth round early in training camp, but it's understandably cooled off with so many injuries around him. Jason Witten (spleen) is likely to miss Week 1 and may not be healthy early in the season. Miles Austin's hamstring problems are recurring. The interior of Dallas' offensive line looks worse than last year's, if that's possible. Despite Saturday night's preseason destruction of the Rams, I wouldn't want Romo as my fantasy starter.
78. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 5th round)
79. Philip Rivers (ADP: Early 7th round)
80. Denarius Moore (ADP: Mid 9th round)
81. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 7th round)
82. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Late 9th round)
83. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I mentioned the effect of a passing league on fantasy statistics in my last column's introduction. It has deepened the receiver and quarterback fields. At the same time, the passing league has allowed pass-catching running backs to lap early-down plodders, particularly those who don't play in high-scoring offenses. Shonn Greene is precisely the kind of running back to avoid in 2012 fantasy drafts. He doesn't catch passes, plays in a brutal offense, and lacks big-play ability to compensate. You're in trouble if he's your RB2.
84. Peyton Manning (ADP: Mid 6th round)
Eighth Round
85. Fred Davis (ADP: Late 8th round) -- I usually recommend caution about slow preseason stats for established fantasy commodities, but Davis has been an afterthought in the Washington offense through three preseason, catching two targets for 16 yards. I think Pierre Garcon has a chance to be a top-ten receiver in targets, and Kyle Shanahan may run more than he has in years past. Davis can still be a mid to late TE1, but I want a difference maker at tight end this season and am willing to invest a high pick.
86. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Early 8th round)
87. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- Rudolph's ADP is still in the flier-pick range, but he shouldn't be considered a flier anymore. If there is a late-round tight end capable of leaping into the Hernandez/Finley/Davis tier, it's the one in Minnesota. Rudolph should be Ponder's No. 1 red-zone target and No. 2 in the open field, behind Harvin. He's got a leg up on the Jared Cooks of the world as an established, every-down tight end. Rudolph isn't just a passing-down specialist.
88. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 8th round)
89. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Late 8th round)
90. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round)
91. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Late 4th round) -- The Bengals' 2011 offense preyed on weak early-season defenses before circling the drain against their tough AFC North foes. I think Cincinnati will struggle this year more than most people anticipate, to the extent that they'll often be playing from behind. That would mean more field time for Bernard Scott and third-down back Brian Leonard, and less for the one-dimensional Law Firm. Already short on running talent and completely devoid of big-play ability, Green-Ellis is an obvious "avoid" in 2012 drafts.
92. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Mid 9th round)
93. David Wilson (ADP: Mid 8th round)
94. Beanie Wells (ADP: Early 7th round)
95. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Mid 7th round)
96. Andrew Luck (ADP: Early 10th round)
Ninth Round
97. Cedric Benson (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Benson will open the season as the favorite for carries in Green Bay's backfield, but pedestrian talent and questionable scheme fit are working against him. Benson can't pass block or catch to save his life, and Packers backs must be able to play in the passing game in order to earn regular playing time. Benson may offer early-season RB3/flex value, but he'll be a liability in PPR leagues while gradually ceding snaps to Alex Green. It's worth noting that in a matter of five days, Benson's ADP has skyrocketed from the seventh round into the fifth. No thanks.
98. Alfred Morris (ADP: Undrafted)
99. Jason Witten (ADP: Early 8th round)
100. Jay Cutler (ADP: Late 7th round)
101. Roy Helu (ADP: Late 9th round)
102. Jake Locker (ADP: Early 13th round)
103. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 8th round)
104. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 11th round)
105. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Early 9th round)
106. Kendall Wright (ADP: Mid 10th round)
107. Evan Royster (ADP: Early 11th round)
108. Robert Griffin III (ADP: Late 8th round)
Tenth Round
109. Brandon LaFell (ADP: Late 10th round) -- LaFell and Legedu Naanee rotated as Carolina's No. 2 receiver in 2011, combining for a final stat line of 80/1,080/4. LaFell now has the job all to himself. While LaFell is unlikely to repeat those statistics on his own, he does offer intriguing breakout appeal in the Panthers' aggressive, vertical offense. He's an ideal WR4 pick.
110. Austin Collie (ADP: Mid 12th round) -- Collie's latest concussion understandably sent his ADP back down the drain just as he was beginning to look like the best receiver value going in drafts. There are no guarantees for a player concussed four times in a 21-month span, but I still like Collie's upside at the price of a WR5. I think he can lead Indy in catches and yards if he gains medical clearance. To date, there are no indications that Collie will be shut down.
111. Kendall Hunter (ADP: Late 11th round)
112. Isaiah Pead (ADP: Mid 13th round)
113. Malcom Floyd (ADP: Mid 8th round)
114. Carson Palmer (ADP: Mid 11th round)
115. Jacob Tamme (ADP: Early 8th round)
116. Nate Washington (ADP: Early 9th round)
117. Greg Olsen (ADP: Mid 11th round)
118. Randall Cobb (ADP: Late 10th round)
119. Tony Gonzalez (ADP: Late 9th round)
120. Anquan Boldin (ADP: Late 8th round)
Eleventh Round
121. Joe Flacco (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Flacco is capable of a breakout season if arch-conservative playcaller Cam Cameron continues his use of the no-huddle offense when the real games start. In Atlanta last year, we saw coach Mike Smith put brakes on the Falcons' intent to use the no-huddle after a prolific preseason. Smith has relented this year, but will Cameron?
122. Sidney Rice (ADP: Mid 11th round)
123. Russell Wilson (ADP: Late 13th round -- I caught Wilson's start against Kansas City on review Sunday and have now watched all his August snaps. He plays with controlled urgency, doing everything on the football field fast and keeping defenses off balance with devastating play fakes on top of dangerous athleticism. Wilson is an accurate thrower, largely unbothered by pressure. I believe he'll be a quality rookie starter who's even better in fantasy than real life.
124. Lance Moore (ADP: Early 10th round)
125. Isaac Redman (ADP: Late 7th round)
126. LeGarrette Blount (ADP: Early 10th round)
127. Jared Cook (ADP: Mid 12th round)
128. Randy Moss (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Moss still has enough straight-line speed to threaten defenses vertically on occasion, but he's a poor fit for weak-armed Alex Smith in a run-heavy offense. News that Moss may only play 20-25 snaps per game, rotating with Mario Manningham, could lead to maddening inconsistency. I wouldn't want him on my fantasy roster.
129. Santonio Holmes (ADP: Mid 10th round)
130. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP: Mid 8th round)
131. Alex Green (ADP: Undrafted) -- An October ACL tear should make most leery of Green's chances at significant 2012 fantasy impact, but he's clearly bypassed James Starks and has a leg up on Cedric Benson from the standpoint that Green excels in the passing game. The Packers are a passing team. It's not crazy to think the lead back job can be Green's by midyear.
132. Mike Williams (ADP: Late 10th round) -- I'd feel a lot better about Williams if I felt better about the Buccaneers' passing game. Vincent Jackson should be able to get his stats, but Josh Freeman's struggles have continued while learning new OC Mike Sullivan's offense. The Bucs will be a run-heavy team featuring Doug Martin and V-Jax. Williams may be an afterthought.
Twelfth Round
133. Pierre Thomas (ADP: Late 11th round)
134. Bernard Scott (ADP: Undrafted)
135. Davone Bess (ADP: Undrafted)
136. Christian Ponder (ADP: Undrafted)
137. Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP: Late 12th round)
138. Jermaine Gresham (ADP: Early 11th round)
139. Matt Schaub (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Don't let the hot preseason trick you. While it's good news for the value of Andre Johnson, Schaub's fantasy ceiling is severely limited by the Texans' run-heavy ways. You want no part of him as a fantasy starter, and there are better QB2s.
140. Alshon Jeffery (ADP: Mid 11th round)
141. Braylon Edwards (ADP: Undrafted)
142. Danny Amendola (ADP: Late 9th round)
143. Josh Freeman (ADP: Early 12th round)
144. Lamar Miller (ADP: Undrafted)
Thirteenth Round
133. Felix Jones (ADP: Mid 13th round) -- Jones secured his roster spot with a solid showing in the third preseason game (eight touches, 57 yards), but he's been all but deleted from the first-team offense. He's a dicey handcuff for entrenched every-down back DeMarco Murray.
145. Vick Ballard (ADP: Undrafted)
147. Robert Turbin (ADP: Mid 13th round)
148. Owen Daniels (ADP: Early 13th round)
149. Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: Early 14th round) -- Sanders would have been a lot more intriguing had Mike Wallace held out into the regular season. With Wallace caving, Sanders will return to the slot in Todd Haley's offense, operating as a part-time player. He's still a worthy WR5 who could ascend to every-week WR3 production if Wallace or Antonio Brown were to get injured.
150. Mikel Leshoure (ADP: Mid 10th round)
Left out of Top 150: Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman, Patriots RB Shane Vereen, Rams WRs Brian Quick and Steve Smith, Colts TE Coby Fleener, Steelers RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Dwyer, Bengals QB Andy Dalton, Jaguars WR Laurent Robinson, Packers RB James Starks, Redskins WRs Leonard Hankerson and Santana Moss, Jets TE Dustin Keller, Raiders RBs Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones, Vikings WR Jerome Simpson, Ravens RB Bernard Pierce, Redskins RB Tim Hightower, Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin, Eagles TE Brent Celek, 49ers WR Mario Manningham, Dolphins RB Daniel Thomas, Chiefs WR Jon Baldwin, Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Colts WR LaVon Brazill, Dolphins WR Brian Hartline, Cardinals WR Michael Floyd.