Evan Silva

Goal Line Stand

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Silva's Post-Camp Top 150

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Sixth Round

61. Jermichael Finley (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Finley's god-given talent and high-octane offense combine to give him plenty of on-paper fantasy appeal, but it would have been nice to see him light up some preseason games for confidence's sake after a miserable 2011 season. I'd much rather have Graham, Gronk, Hernandez, or Gates. As much as there's a big drop after the first two tight ends, it gets even bigger after the top four. You need to get a good one this year.

62. Vernon Davis (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- Davis is a better player than Finley and could be grouped with the four "elite" tight ends if he played in a more fantasy-friendly passing offense.

63. Reggie Bush (ADP: Early 5th round) -- Bush's Average Draft Position is much too rich for my taste. I don't think he'll come close to last year's workload in Joe Philbin's committee-based running offense. Rookie Lamar Miller intrigues me more and will cost you far less on draft day.

64. Peyton Hillis (ADP: Early 6th round) -- Charles is too good and running too well for the Chiefs to give Hillis more touches, but the more powerful half of Kansas City's Thunder and Lightning backfield is an intriguing flex option. The Chiefs will run a ton, and Hillis will score TDs.

65. DeSean Jackson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Jackson will give you weekly big-play potential, but I don't think his consistency will improve much. He's a WR3 in a field full of them.

66. Michael Turner (ADP: Late 3rd round) -- Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Turner is a "sleeper" to be listed among Friday's final Falcons cuts. He was completely ineffective in three preseason games (18 carries, 49 yards, 2.7 YPC) and is fast losing value to a team that will no longer lean on its run game. Turner is also owed a non-guaranteed $5 million base salary.

67. Kenny Britt (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I'm really liking this ADP on Britt. While he is certain to miss time, Britt will be an every-week starter once the Titans remove his early-season training wheels. And Jake Locker helps Britt because he can throw the football down the field.

68. Ryan Williams (ADP: Late 7th round) -- I like Williams to lead Arizona's backfield in touches. He's better in the passing game than Beanie Wells, and his knee has been healthier for a longer period of time. The fact that Williams avoided setbacks after a patellar tendon rupture is promising. I was also impressed watching him in preseason games. Williams has showed cutting ability and some acceleration, averaging 5.0 yards per carry with a goal-line score in August. The Cards may have to lean on their running game this year due to the NFL's worst pass protection.

69. Miles Austin (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Austin's ADP is reasonable because he can score like a borderline WR1 when healthy. I just don't know whether he's going to be 100 percent this year after missing nearly a month of training camp with recurring hamstring problems.

70. Jonathan Stewart (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Stewart dodged a bullet after going down with an ankle "tweak" in Carolina's third preseason game. I'm not concerned with his durability, but the Panthers' backfield was muddled last year and has become even more so with the addition of Mike Tolbert. I do not consider Stewart an RB2, and wouldn't feel great about him as my flex, either. Of course, he'd be a top-10 weekly running back play if DeAngelo Williams went down.

71. Mark Ingram (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- Ingram interests me as a standard-league RB2/flex because he's looked awfully good in preseason action while retaining a stranglehold on red-zone carries in New Orleans' high-scoring offense. Ingram disappointed a ton of owners last season, keeping the Average Draft Position very low on a legitimate threat for 10-12 rushing TDs.

72. Pierre Garcon (ADP: Early 7th round) -- If preseason and the history of Shanahan offenses are any indication, "X" receiver Garcon will be RG3's first read on virtually every passing play in 2012. Garcon is error prone, but he's also a sleeper to finish top-ten in targets. Considering cost and projected consistency, I'd rather have Garcon as my WR3 than DeSean Jackson.

Seventh Round

73. Ben Tate (ADP: Mid 7th round) -- I love Tate because he's a viable flex play against soft run defenses and a locked-and-loaded RB1 if Arian Foster goes down. I'd start thinking about drafting Tate in the sixth round. He brings much more to the table than your typical "handcuff."

74. Rashad Jennings (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Jennings is locked in as Jacksonville's Week 1 starter, although he'll face Minnesota's annually tough run defense and gets the Texans the following week. Jones-Drew figures to end his holdout by then. I've always held Jennings in high regard as a three-down-capable back, but he may need an MJD injury to be more than a flex play.

75. Donald Brown (ADP: Late 5th round) -- Brown is one of the most overdrafted players in 2012 fantasy leagues. He's much more change-of-pace than feature back, and figures to open the season rotating snaps with Vick Ballard and passing-down specialist Mewelde Moore. Avoid.

76. Greg Little (ADP: Mid 10th round)

77. Tony Romo (ADP: Late 6th round) -- Romo's Average Draft Position was screaming toward the fourth round early in training camp, but it's understandably cooled off with so many injuries around him. Jason Witten (spleen) is likely to miss Week 1 and may not be healthy early in the season. Miles Austin's hamstring problems are recurring. The interior of Dallas' offensive line looks worse than last year's, if that's possible. Despite last Saturday night's preseason destruction of the Rams, I wouldn't want Romo as my fantasy starter.

78. Eli Manning (ADP: Mid 5th round)

79. Philip Rivers (ADP: Early 7th round) -- I don't feel good about Rivers at all. His 2011 game tape showed possible signs of decline, and LT Jared Gaither is now tentatively expected to miss regular season action due to ongoing back problems. Rivers is the toughest pocket quarterback in football, but the Chargers' vertical scheme could hit the skids without viable pass protection. Aside from Antonio Gates, it's hard to be upbeat about this passing attack right now.

80. Denarius Moore (ADP: Mid 9th round)

81. Titus Young (ADP: Mid 7th round)

82. Toby Gerhart (ADP: Late 9th round) -- Gerhart isn't an elite talent at running back, but he churns his legs through contact, soaks up blocked yards, and has developed into a strong passing-game contributor. While everyone seems to expect the old Adrian Peterson to return, Gerhart is also an every-down back in waiting behind a starter coming off a devastating knee injury. Gerhart's Average Draft Position ought to be a lot higher than it is right now.

83. Shonn Greene (ADP: Mid 6th round) -- I mentioned the effect of a passing league on fantasy statistics in my last column's introduction. It has deepened the receiver and quarterback fields. At the same time, the passing league has allowed pass-catching running backs to lap early-down plodders, particularly those who don't play in high-scoring offenses. Shonn Greene is precisely the kind of running back to avoid in 2012 fantasy drafts. He doesn't catch passes, plays in a brutal offense, and lacks big-play ability to compensate. You're in trouble if he's your RB2.

84. Peyton Manning (ADP: Early 6th round)

Eighth Round

85. C.J. Spiller (ADP: Mid 8th round) -- I've seen Spiller ranked quite a bit higher than this, and I don't get it. He'll need another F-Jax injury to emerge as more than a weak flex option.

86. Fred Davis (ADP: Early 9th round) -- I usually recommend caution about slow preseason stats for established fantasy commodities, but Davis has been an afterthought in the Washington offense through three preseason games, catching his two targets for 16 yards. I think Pierre Garcon has a chance to be a top-ten receiver in targets, and Kyle Shanahan may run more than he has in years past. Davis can still be a back-end TE1, but I want a difference maker at tight end this season and am willing to invest a high pick.

87. Kyle Rudolph (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Rudolph's ADP is still in the flier-pick range, but he shouldn't be considered a flier anymore. If there is a late-round tight end capable of leaping into the Hernandez/Finley/Davis tier, it's the one in Minnesota. Rudolph should be Ponder's No. 1 red-zone target and No. 2 in the open field, behind Harvin. He's got a leg up on the Jared Cooks of the world as an established, every-down tight end. Rudolph isn't just a passing-down specialist.

88. Darrius Heyward-Bey (ADP: Late 8th round)

89. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: Mid 8th round)

90. Michael Bush (ADP: Mid 8th round)

91. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP: Mid 4th round) -- The Bengals' 2011 offense preyed on weak early-season defenses before circling the drain against their tough AFC North foes. I think Cincinnati will struggle this year more than most people anticipate, to the extent that they'll often be playing from behind. That would mean more field time for Bernard Scott and third-down back Brian Leonard, and less for the one-dimensional Law Firm. Already short on running talent and completely devoid of big-play ability, Green-Ellis is an obvious "avoid" in 2012 fantasy drafts.

92. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: Mid 9th round)

93. David Wilson (ADP: Early 8th round) -- Wilson has dynamic running ability and it's shown up all preseason, but his Average Draft Position has taken him out of the mix for me. Barring injury to Ahmad Bradshaw, Wilson's upside is changeup back who doesn't play in the passing game. If Bradshaw gets hurt, Wilson would be no more than lead runner in a committee with D.J. Ware. I loved Wilson when I could get him as an RB4/5. I don't want him as my RB3.

94. Beanie Wells (ADP: Early 7th round)

95. Justin Blackmon (ADP: Early 7th round) -- His ADP has skyrocketed. Blackmon is a physical run-after-catch receiver with some Boldinian traits, but I'm hardly sold on Blaine Gabbert and there are many wideouts going later I'd prefer. Kenny Britt, Titus Young, and Denarius Moore have lower ADPs. Each of them is a better bet than Blackmon for sustained WR3 scoring.

96. Andrew Luck (ADP: Early 10th round)

Ninth Round

97. Cedric Benson (ADP: Mid 5th round) -- Benson will open the season as the favorite for carries in Green Bay, but pedestrian talent and questionable scheme fit are working against him. Benson can't pass block or catch, and Packers backs must be able to play in the passing game in order to earn regular playing time. Benson may offer early-season RB2/flex value, but he'll be a liability in PPR leagues while gradually ceding snaps to Alex Green. It's worth noting that in a matter of a week, Benson's ADP has skyrocketed from round seven to five. No thanks.

98. Alfred Morris (ADP: Late 13th round) -- The guy getting carries in D.C. is going to produce, and that's Morris at the moment. He has no burst, though, and lacks talent to be a consistent scorer, let alone keep the job. Morris may prove a flash in the pan, but I still think he's worth a ninth- or tenth-round stab. He'll be a weekly 100-yard threat as long as he's getting the rock.

99. Austin Collie (ADP: Late 12th round) -- Collie's latest concussion understandably sent his ADP back into the gutter just as he was beginning to look like the best receiver value going in drafts. There are no guarantees for a player concussed four times in a 21-month span, but I still like Collie's upside at the price of a WR5. I think he can lead Indy in catches and yards if he gains medical clearance. The Colts have stated publicly that they expect Collie to be ready for Week 1.

100. Sidney Rice (ADP: Early 11th round) -- Rice's improving health means he's back in line to start on Opening Day, and Terrell Owens' release all but confirms it. Braylon Edwards and Golden Tate are competing at split end. Rice was vying with Owens at flanker, and Doug Baldwin is the slot guy. Durability remains a concern, but Rice is an every-week WR3 whenever healthy.

101. Jason Witten (ADP: Early 8th round)

102. Jay Cutler (ADP: Early 8th round)

103. Roy Helu (ADP: Early 10th round) -- Helu's bum Achilles' tendons have sent his fantasy stock spiraling, but I've paid attention to this backfield enough to know unequivocally that Helu is the best runner the Redskins have, in every single area. I'd love him as an RB4/5.

104. Jake Locker (ADP: Early 13th round) -- Locker's accuracy issues aren't going away, but he throws the football with tremendous velocity and can keep the chains moving with his legs. He's got a high ceiling for a last-ditch QB2 pick. The Titans' 2012 offense has exciting potential.

105. Robert Meachem (ADP: Mid 8th round)

106. Michael Crabtree (ADP: Mid 11th round)

107. Jacquizz Rodgers (ADP: Early 9th round)

108. Kendall Wright (ADP: Early 10th round)

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Evan Silva is a senior football editor for Rotoworld.com. He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Evan Silva

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