Patrick Daugherty

Draft Analysis

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Final Mock Draft Breakdown

Friday, August 31, 2012

“Expert” mock drafts are quite useful, but they do present a problem: 99.9 percent of the population isn’t drafting in an “experts” league. That is not meant as a knock on “friends leagues,” but an acknowledgment that they trend toward different (and not necessarily worse) draft patterns.

These “experts” leagues Evan, Chris, Adam, Mike and myself compete in? All the sleepers have been woken up by Round 5. Exciting new talents tend to be aggressively overdrafted, while players with even the hint of a question mark can drop like a stone before becoming somebody’s “value pick.”      

On the other hand, the average 12-team friends league (of which I participate in many) probably has 3-4 people who really know their stuff, 3-4 who at least downloaded an app or bought a magazine and 3-4 more who only tangentially follow NFL football. The final one or two members are traditionally a brother or friend of a friend whose main quality is a willingness to pay the $25 entry free. In these drafts, the big sleepers typically get monumentally overdrafted, while the second and third tier of roto-community darlings often fall to the teen rounds.

Which brings us to this somewhat happy medium. All 12 players in this draft are experts/fantasy professionals — just not in football. That is not to say most, if not all, of the participants don’t follow the NFL closely, it's just not their day job. Of the 12, we have eight baseball specialists, two basketball experts, one bossman and one hybrid. A PPR slow draft that will be played out — translation: none of these picks are for show — we’ll be starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF. Passing touchdowns are worth six points. Without further ado.    

1. Brett Vandermark (The Boss) - Arian Foster
2. Matthew Pouliot (MLB)  - Ray Rice
3. Thor Nystrom (MLB) - Aaron Rodgers
4. Aaron Bruski (NBA) - LeSean McCoy
5. Drew Silva (MLB) - Darren McFadden
6. Aaron Gleeman (MLB) - Tom Brady
7. Eno Sarris (MLB) - Calvin Johnson
8. Ryan Boyer (MLB) - Chris Johnson
9. D.J. Short (MLB) - Drew Brees
10. Nick Nelson (MLB) - Cam Newton
11. Steve Alexander (NBA) -  Julio Jones
12. Patrick Daugherty (NFL/MLB) - Ryan Mathews

Notes: The big surprise is McCoy — Rotoworld’s No. 2 overall player — falling to No. 4. Thor is from the north, however, which should help explain his Rodgers pick. … As has been noted in other places on this website, one of the defining first-round questions this season has been DMC vs. CJwhateverK. Drew didn’t hesitate to take McFadden. … The Brady pick signals one of signature differences between friend and expert leagues — the willingness to take quarterbacks early and often. The run on the QBs started exceptionally early here, however, and I responded in kind in Round 2. … Jones going 11th is an expert-league staple. Well done, Docktor.  

13. Daugherty - Matthew Stafford
14. Alexander - Matt Forte
15. Nelson - DeMarco Murray
16. Short - Maurice Jones-Drew
17. Boyer - Larry Fitzgerald
18. Sarris - Jimmy Graham
19. Gleeman - Steven Jackson
20. Silva - Rob Gronkowski
21. Bruski - Adrian Peterson
22. Nystrom - Jamaal Charles
23. Pouliot - Marshawn Lynch
24. Vandermark - Andre Johnson

Notes: Taking Stafford 13th would have garnered eye rolls in any one of my numerous summer mocks, but after four quarterbacks went off the board in Round 1, there was no way my favorite fantasy player of 2012 was falling to the third round. I made a passion pick, which usually aren’t recommended quite this early, but I still felt good about it … Forte and Murray are both textbook picks, as is letting MJD fall to Round 2. … Steven Jackson going 17th may raise eyebrows, but it’s actually one spot lower than he went in Rotoworld’s most recent experts mock. He’s our No. 15 overall player. … Charles and Peterson falling so far was one ramification of so many signal callers going early. Neither player is typically falling this far in any draft, friend or expert.      

25. Vandermark - Dez Bryant
26. Pouliot - Greg Jennings
27. Nystrom - Wes Welker
28. Bruski - Darren Sproles
29. Silva - Michael Vick
30. Gleeman - Doug Martin
31. Sarris - Trent Richardson
32. Boyer - A.J. Green
33. Short - Hakeem Nicks
34. Nelson - Jordy Nelson
35. Alexander - Roddy White
36. Daugherty - Steve Smith

Notes: I was initially surprised by both the Jennings and Welker selections, but each was in line with the most recent RW expert mock. … Gleeman scooped up Martin just 12 spots ahead of his current ADP. It’s an excellent pick, as Tampa’s No. 1 back has begun to sneak into the second round in expert leagues. … T-Rich a smart value pick by Eno. … Green is an absolutely amazing pick at No. 32. … The Nicks and Nelson selections are both in line with their ADP, but that doesn’t make either any less of a steal at this stage. … Roddy White: 24 picks after Julio. A shockingly common (and logically sound) occurrence for a player who led the NFL in targets last season.         

37. Daugherty - Brandon Lloyd
38. Alexander - Fred Jackson
39. Nelson - Marques Colston
40. Short - Percy Harvin
41. Boyer - Victor Cruz
42. Sarris - Ahmad Bradshaw
43. Gleeman - Brandon Marshall
44. Silva - Demaryius Thomas
45. Bruski - Mike Wallace
46. Nystrom - Antonio Gates
47. Pouliot - Peyton Manning
48. Vandermark - Aaron Hernandez

Notes: I’ve noticed Lloyd beginning to slip a bit from his mid-August peak in both friend and expert leagues, but it’s doubtful he would have escaped the fourth round had I not made him the first pick. … Jackson at No. 38 directly matches his ADP. … Cruz in the fourth round has been a surprisingly common occurrence this summer. I’m beginning to think he’s the Jose Bautista of the NFL: by the time we all accept that he’s “for real” for real, he’ll be working on his third straight monster season. … Marshall, Demaryius and Wallace all hung close to their ADPs. … Peyton went seven spots above his. Peyton lasted until the seventh round in RW’s August 13 mock.        

49. Vandermark - Matt Ryan
50. Pouliot - Eli Manning
51. Nystrom - Jeremy Maclin
52. Bruski - Eric Decker
53. Silva - Pierre Garcon
54. Gleeman - Dwayne Bowe
55. Sarris - Tony Romo
56. Boyer - Frank Gore
57. Short - Reggie Bush
58. Nelson - Willis McGahee
59. Alexander - Vincent Jackson
60. Daugherty - Jonathan Stewart

Notes: Simply put, getting Eli after Peyton is an absolute steal. Both brothers go the same baseball expert, Mr. Pouliot. … Most of the last conceivable WR1s flew off the board here, from Maclin to Bowe. Garcon and Decker are both right proper darkhorses. … Gore falls 15 spots further than he did in RW’s 8/13 mock.   

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Patrick Daugherty is a football and baseball writer for He can be found on Twitter .
Email :Patrick Daugherty

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