Final Mock Draft Breakdown
Friday, August 31, 2012
ROUND 661. Daugherty -
Torrey Smith62. Alexander -
Andrew Luck63. Nelson -
Jacob Tamme64. Short -
Kevin Smith65. Boyer -
Jermichael Finley66. Sarris -
DeSean Jackson67. Gleeman -
Reggie Wayne68. Silva -
Antonio Brown69. Bruski -
Vernon Davis70. Nystrom -
Michael Turner71. Pouliot -
Miles Austin72. Vandermark -
Stevie Johnson Notes: Luck went 55 spots ahead of his ADP here, but honestly, it’s not crazy to believe he may produce at a sixth-round level. It was a bit crazy to take him ahead of
Ben Roethlisberger, however, who fell to No. 80. … Torrey may seem like a bit of a reach at No. 61, but it’s in line with his current ADP. … Turner fell two rounds further than he did in the 8/13 mock. I say I still wouldn’t even take him in Round 6. … Mr. Nelson took Tamme well ahead of where he sits in ADP and Rotoworld’s overall rankings, and five rounds before he went in the 8/13 mock. … Wayne and Brown? Both excellent picks.
ROUND 773. Vandermark -
C.J. Spiller74. Pouliot -
Stevan Ridley75. Nystrom -
Shonn Greene76. Bruski -
Kenny Britt77. Silva -
Peyton Hillis78. Gleeman -
Robert Meachem 79. Sarris -
Donald Brown 80. Boyer -
Ben Roethlisberger 81. Short -
Fred Davis82. Nelson -
Beanie Wells83. Alexander -
Mark Ingram84. Daugherty -
BenJarvus Green-Ellis Notes: He’ll need help for it to happen (read: injury or major regression for
Fred Jackson), but Spiller is one of 2012’s true home run picks. I love him in Round 7. … Ridley tightened his grip on No. 1 duties this preseason, and could prove to be a real steal here. … Roethlisberger went in Round 4 of the 8/13 mock, but this is actually in line with his ADP. … A Redskins fan, D.J. could be getting a real bargain with Davis if 2011 — and not his preseason — was the sneak preview for his 2012 production. … Round 7 seems right for Britt. … To be honest, I would have taken BJGE before any of the running backs who went in this round, save for maybe Spiller. Volume runners never go out of roto style.
ROUND 885. Daugherty -
Cedric Benson 86. Alexander -
Robert Griffin III87. Nelson -
Justin Blackmon88. Short -
Greg Little 89. Boyer -
DeAngelo Williams 90. Sarris -
Darrius Heyward-Bey91. Gleeman -
David Wilson92. Silva -
Ryan Williams93. Bruski -
Jay Cutler 94. Nystrom -
Denarius Moore95. Pouliot -
Philip Rivers96. Vandermark -
Ben TateNotes: If Benson has anywhere near the workhorse role he had in Cincy, he’ll be a steal here. … RGIII goes 24 spots after luck. As he should. … One of this year’s “name” sleepers, Wilson goes 15 spots above his ADP, but just five spots above his overall Rotoworld rank. It was the right place to take him. … Moore’s stock has plummeted after he failed to play a snap in the preseason, but he could very easily turn into a monster value at No. 94.
ROUND 997. Vandermark -
Titus Young98. Pouliot -
Tony Gonzalez99. Nystrom -
Santonio Holmes100. Bruski -
Jason Witten101. Silva -
Kendall Wright102. Gleeman -
Kyle Rudolph 103. Sarris -
Jacquizz Rodgers104. Boyer -
Ronnie Hillman 105. Short -
Rashad Jennings106. Nelson -
Michael Bush107. Alexander -
Isaac Redman 108. Daugherty -
Greg Olsen Notes: No. 100 in ADP and No. 103 in Rotoworld’s ranks, Young went in the right spot. … Witten fell well below both his ADP and RW rank, but my guess is that it will prove to be a well-deserved plummet. … Rudolph at No. 102 seems like an absolute heist. Couldn’t believe I had let him slip by when I realized it. … As Chris Wesseling can attest, I once captained the
Isaac Redman train, but it’s beginning to look like he’ll be a severe overdraft at No. 107.
ROUND 10 109. Daugherty -
Brandon LaFell110. Alexander -
Rashard Mendenhall 111. Nelson -
Carson Palmer112. Short -
Roy Helu113. Boyer -
Austin Collie114. Sarris -
Mike Williams115. Gleeman -
Pierre Thomas116. Silva -
Russell Wilson 117. Bruski -
Toby Gerhart118. Nystrom -
Evan Royster119. Pouliot -
Malcom Floyd120. Vandermark -
Jake LockerNotes: The Docktor took Mendenhall a whole 42 spots ahead of his Rotoworld rank, but this is the time in the draft where it’s appropriate to start searching for home runs. Mendenhall will be of little to no value during the season’s first 5-6 weeks, but could be mighty valuable come playoff time. … Helu had fallen far enough. I’m an advocate of steering entirely clear of Mike Shanahan’s backfield, but Helu at 112 is a supremely justifiable pick. … Love the Wilson pick, though it’s true boom or bust. He could be backing up
Matt Flynn by Halloween. … I’ve yet to arrive at the Locker party. There might not be a less accurate quarterback this side of
Tim Tebow.
ROUND 11121. Vandermark -
Jared Cook 122. Pouliot -
Fortyniners Defense123. Nystrom -
Ryan Fitzpatrick 124. Bruski -
Michael Crabtree125. Silva -
Eagles Defense 126. Gleeman -
Brandon Pettigrew127. Sarris -
Kendall Hunter128. Boyer -
Bernard Scott129. Short -
Santana Moss130. Nelson -
Sidney Rice131. Alexander -
Nate Washington 132. Daugherty -
Danny Amendola ROUND 12133. Daugherty -
Brian Hartline134. Alexander -
Anquan Boldin135. Nelson -
Ravens Defense136. Short -
Matt Schaub 137. Boyer -
Joe Flacco138. Sarris -
Lance Moore139. Gleeman -
Steelers Defense140. Silva -
Mikel Leshoure141. Bruski -
Cowboys Defense142. Nystrom -
Randy Moss143. Pouliot -
Braylon Edwards144. Vandermark -
Jermaine Gresham ROUND 13145. Vandermark -
Brian Quick146. Pouliot -
Robert Turbin147. Nystrom -
Brent Celek148. Bruski -
Alex Green149. Silva -
Coby Fleener 150. Gleeman -
Stephen Gostkowski151. Sarris -
Alfred Morris152. Boyer -
Jon Baldwin 153. Short -
Seahawks Defense154. Nelson -
Martellus Bennett 155. Alexander -
Dustin Keller156. Daugherty -
Jonathan DwyerROUND 14 157. Daugherty -
Emmanuel Sanders 158. Alexander -
Chris Rainey159. Nelson -
Isaiah Pead 160. Short -
Alshon Jeffery 161. Boyer -
Jerome Simpson 162. Sarris -
Texans Defense 163. Gleeman -
Christian Ponder 164. Silva -
Sebastian Janikowski 165. Bruski -
Randall Cobb166. Nystrom -
Felix Jones167. Pouliot -
Daniel Thomas168. Vandermark -
LeGarrette Blount
ROUND 15 (In Progress)
169. Vandermark - Bears Defese
170. Pouliot - Mason Crosby
171. Nystrom - Broncos Defense
172. Bruski - Tim Tebow
173. Silva - Michael Floyd
174. Gleeman - Jahvid Best
175. Sarris -
176. Boyer -
177. Short -
178. Nelson -
179. Alexander -
180. Daugherty -
ROUND 16
181. Daugherty -
182. Alexander -
183. Nelson -
184. Short -
185. Boyer -
186. Sarris -
187. Gleeman -
188. Silva -
189. Bruski -
190. Nystrom -
191. Pouliot -
192. Vandermark -
“Expert” mock drafts are quite useful, but they do present a problem: 99.9 percent of the population isn’t drafting in an “experts” league. That is not meant as a knock on “friends leagues,” but an acknowledgment that they trend toward different (and not necessarily worse) draft patterns.
These “experts” leagues Evan, Chris, Adam, Mike and myself compete in? All the sleepers have been woken up by Round 5. Exciting new talents tend to be aggressively overdrafted, while players with even the hint of a question mark can drop like a stone before becoming somebody’s “value pick.”
On the other hand, the average 12-team friends league (of which I participate in many) probably has 3-4 people who really know their stuff, 3-4 who at least downloaded an app or bought a magazine and 3-4 more who only tangentially follow NFL football. The final one or two members are traditionally a brother or friend of a friend whose main quality is a willingness to pay the $25 entry free. In these drafts, the big sleepers typically get monumentally overdrafted, while the second and third tier of roto-community darlings often fall to the teen rounds.
Which brings us to this somewhat happy medium. All 12 players in this draft are experts/fantasy professionals — just not in football. That is not to say most, if not all, of the participants don’t follow the NFL closely, it's just not their day job. Of the 12, we have eight baseball specialists, two basketball experts, one bossman and one hybrid. A PPR slow draft that will be played out — translation: none of these picks are for show — we’ll be starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF. Passing touchdowns are worth six points. Without further ado.
ROUND 1
1. Brett Vandermark (The Boss) - Arian Foster
2. Matthew Pouliot (MLB) - Ray Rice
3. Thor Nystrom (MLB) - Aaron Rodgers
4. Aaron Bruski (NBA) - LeSean McCoy
5. Drew Silva (MLB) - Darren McFadden
6. Aaron Gleeman (MLB) - Tom Brady
7. Eno Sarris (MLB) - Calvin Johnson
8. Ryan Boyer (MLB) - Chris Johnson
9. D.J. Short (MLB) - Drew Brees
10. Nick Nelson (MLB) - Cam Newton
11. Steve Alexander (NBA) - Julio Jones
12. Patrick Daugherty (NFL/MLB) - Ryan Mathews
Notes: The big surprise is McCoy — Rotoworld’s No. 2 overall player — falling to No. 4. Thor is from the north, however, which should help explain his Rodgers pick. … As has been noted in other places on this website, one of the defining first-round questions this season has been DMC vs. CJwhateverK. Drew didn’t hesitate to take McFadden. … The Brady pick signals one of signature differences between friend and expert leagues — the willingness to take quarterbacks early and often. The run on the QBs started exceptionally early here, however, and I responded in kind in Round 2. … Jones going 11th is an expert-league staple. Well done, Docktor.
ROUND 2
13. Daugherty - Matthew Stafford
14. Alexander - Matt Forte
15. Nelson - DeMarco Murray
16. Short - Maurice Jones-Drew
17. Boyer - Larry Fitzgerald
18. Sarris - Jimmy Graham
19. Gleeman - Steven Jackson
20. Silva - Rob Gronkowski
21. Bruski - Adrian Peterson
22. Nystrom - Jamaal Charles
23. Pouliot - Marshawn Lynch
24. Vandermark - Andre Johnson
Notes: Taking Stafford 13th would have garnered eye rolls in any one of my numerous summer mocks, but after four quarterbacks went off the board in Round 1, there was no way my favorite fantasy player of 2012 was falling to the third round. I made a passion pick, which usually aren’t recommended quite this early, but I still felt good about it … Forte and Murray are both textbook picks, as is letting MJD fall to Round 2. … Steven Jackson going 17th may raise eyebrows, but it’s actually one spot lower than he went in Rotoworld’s most recent experts mock. He’s our No. 15 overall player. … Charles and Peterson falling so far was one ramification of so many signal callers going early. Neither player is typically falling this far in any draft, friend or expert.
ROUND 3
25. Vandermark - Dez Bryant
26. Pouliot - Greg Jennings
27. Nystrom - Wes Welker
28. Bruski - Darren Sproles
29. Silva - Michael Vick
30. Gleeman - Doug Martin
31. Sarris - Trent Richardson
32. Boyer - A.J. Green
33. Short - Hakeem Nicks
34. Nelson - Jordy Nelson
35. Alexander - Roddy White
36. Daugherty - Steve Smith
Notes: I was initially surprised by both the Jennings and Welker selections, but each was in line with the most recent RW expert mock. … Gleeman scooped up Martin just 12 spots ahead of his current ADP. It’s an excellent pick, as Tampa’s No. 1 back has begun to sneak into the second round in expert leagues. … T-Rich a smart value pick by Eno. … Green is an absolutely amazing pick at No. 32. … The Nicks and Nelson selections are both in line with their ADP, but that doesn’t make either any less of a steal at this stage. … Roddy White: 24 picks after Julio. A shockingly common (and logically sound) occurrence for a player who led the NFL in targets last season.
ROUND 4
37. Daugherty - Brandon Lloyd
38. Alexander - Fred Jackson
39. Nelson - Marques Colston
40. Short - Percy Harvin
41. Boyer - Victor Cruz
42. Sarris - Ahmad Bradshaw
43. Gleeman - Brandon Marshall
44. Silva - Demaryius Thomas
45. Bruski - Mike Wallace
46. Nystrom - Antonio Gates
47. Pouliot - Peyton Manning
48. Vandermark - Aaron Hernandez
Notes: I’ve noticed Lloyd beginning to slip a bit from his mid-August peak in both friend and expert leagues, but it’s doubtful he would have escaped the fourth round had I not made him the first pick. … Jackson at No. 38 directly matches his ADP. … Cruz in the fourth round has been a surprisingly common occurrence this summer. I’m beginning to think he’s the Jose Bautista of the NFL: by the time we all accept that he’s “for real” for real, he’ll be working on his third straight monster season. … Marshall, Demaryius and Wallace all hung close to their ADPs. … Peyton went seven spots above his. Peyton lasted until the seventh round in RW’s August 13 mock.
ROUND 5
49. Vandermark - Matt Ryan
50. Pouliot - Eli Manning
51. Nystrom - Jeremy Maclin
52. Bruski - Eric Decker
53. Silva - Pierre Garcon
54. Gleeman - Dwayne Bowe
55. Sarris - Tony Romo
56. Boyer - Frank Gore
57. Short - Reggie Bush
58. Nelson - Willis McGahee
59. Alexander - Vincent Jackson
60. Daugherty - Jonathan Stewart
Notes: Simply put, getting Eli after Peyton is an absolute steal. Both brothers go the same baseball expert, Mr. Pouliot. … Most of the last conceivable WR1s flew off the board here, from Maclin to Bowe. Garcon and Decker are both right proper darkhorses. … Gore falls 15 spots further than he did in RW’s 8/13 mock.
ROUND 6
61. Daugherty - Torrey Smith
62. Alexander - Andrew Luck
63. Nelson - Jacob Tamme
64. Short - Kevin Smith
65. Boyer - Jermichael Finley
66. Sarris - DeSean Jackson
67. Gleeman - Reggie Wayne
68. Silva - Antonio Brown
69. Bruski - Vernon Davis
70. Nystrom - Michael Turner
71. Pouliot - Miles Austin
72. Vandermark - Stevie Johnson
Notes: Luck went 55 spots ahead of his ADP here, but honestly, it’s not crazy to believe he may produce at a sixth-round level. It was a bit crazy to take him ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, however, who fell to No. 80. … Torrey may seem like a bit of a reach at No. 61, but it’s in line with his current ADP. … Turner fell two rounds further than he did in the 8/13 mock. I say I still wouldn’t even take him in Round 6. … Mr. Nelson took Tamme well ahead of where he sits in ADP and Rotoworld’s overall rankings, and five rounds before he went in the 8/13 mock. … Wayne and Brown? Both excellent picks.
ROUND 7
73. Vandermark - C.J. Spiller
74. Pouliot - Stevan Ridley
75. Nystrom - Shonn Greene
76. Bruski - Kenny Britt
77. Silva - Peyton Hillis
78. Gleeman - Robert Meachem
79. Sarris - Donald Brown
80. Boyer - Ben Roethlisberger
81. Short - Fred Davis
82. Nelson - Beanie Wells
83. Alexander - Mark Ingram
84. Daugherty - BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Notes: He’ll need help for it to happen (read: injury or major regression for Fred Jackson), but Spiller is one of 2012’s true home run picks. I love him in Round 7. … Ridley tightened his grip on No. 1 duties this preseason, and could prove to be a real steal here. … Roethlisberger went in Round 4 of the 8/13 mock, but this is actually in line with his ADP. … A Redskins fan, D.J. could be getting a real bargain with Davis if 2011 — and not his preseason — was the sneak preview for his 2012 production. … Round 7 seems right for Britt. … To be honest, I would have taken BJGE before any of the running backs who went in this round, save for maybe Spiller. Volume runners never go out of roto style.
ROUND 8
85. Daugherty - Cedric Benson
86. Alexander - Robert Griffin III
87. Nelson - Justin Blackmon
88. Short - Greg Little
89. Boyer - DeAngelo Williams
90. Sarris - Darrius Heyward-Bey
91. Gleeman - David Wilson
92. Silva - Ryan Williams
93. Bruski - Jay Cutler
94. Nystrom - Denarius Moore
95. Pouliot - Philip Rivers
96. Vandermark - Ben Tate
Notes: If Benson has anywhere near the workhorse role he had in Cincy, he’ll be a steal here. … RGIII goes 24 spots after luck. As he should. … One of this year’s “name” sleepers, Wilson goes 15 spots above his ADP, but just five spots above his overall Rotoworld rank. It was the right place to take him. … Moore’s stock has plummeted after he failed to play a snap in the preseason, but he could very easily turn into a monster value at No. 94.
ROUND 9
97. Vandermark - Titus Young
98. Pouliot - Tony Gonzalez
99. Nystrom - Santonio Holmes
100. Bruski - Jason Witten
101. Silva - Kendall Wright
102. Gleeman - Kyle Rudolph
103. Sarris - Jacquizz Rodgers
104. Boyer - Ronnie Hillman
105. Short - Rashad Jennings
106. Nelson - Michael Bush
107. Alexander - Isaac Redman
108. Daugherty - Greg Olsen
Notes: No. 100 in ADP and No. 103 in Rotoworld’s ranks, Young went in the right spot. … Witten fell well below both his ADP and RW rank, but my guess is that it will prove to be a well-deserved plummet. … Rudolph at No. 102 seems like an absolute heist. Couldn’t believe I had let him slip by when I realized it. … As Chris Wesseling can attest, I once captained the Isaac Redman train, but it’s beginning to look like he’ll be a severe overdraft at No. 107.
ROUND 10
109. Daugherty - Brandon LaFell
110. Alexander - Rashard Mendenhall
111. Nelson - Carson Palmer
112. Short - Roy Helu
113. Boyer - Austin Collie
114. Sarris - Mike Williams
115. Gleeman - Pierre Thomas
116. Silva - Russell Wilson
117. Bruski - Toby Gerhart
118. Nystrom - Evan Royster
119. Pouliot - Malcom Floyd
120. Vandermark - Jake Locker
Notes: The Docktor took Mendenhall a whole 42 spots ahead of his Rotoworld rank, but this is the time in the draft where it’s appropriate to start searching for home runs. Mendenhall will be of little to no value during the season’s first 5-6 weeks, but could be mighty valuable come playoff time. … Helu had fallen far enough. I’m an advocate of steering entirely clear of Mike Shanahan’s backfield, but Helu at 112 is a supremely justifiable pick. … Love the Wilson pick, though it’s true boom or bust. He could be backing up Matt Flynn by Halloween. … I’ve yet to arrive at the Locker party. There might not be a less accurate quarterback this side of Tim Tebow.
ROUND 11
121. Vandermark - Jared Cook
122. Pouliot - Fortyniners Defense
123. Nystrom - Ryan Fitzpatrick
124. Bruski - Michael Crabtree
125. Silva - Eagles Defense
126. Gleeman - Brandon Pettigrew
127. Sarris - Kendall Hunter
128. Boyer - Bernard Scott
129. Short - Santana Moss
130. Nelson - Sidney Rice
131. Alexander - Nate Washington
132. Daugherty - Danny Amendola
ROUND 12
133. Daugherty - Brian Hartline
134. Alexander - Anquan Boldin
135. Nelson - Ravens Defense
136. Short - Matt Schaub
137. Boyer - Joe Flacco
138. Sarris - Lance Moore
139. Gleeman - Steelers Defense
140. Silva - Mikel Leshoure
141. Bruski - Cowboys Defense
142. Nystrom - Randy Moss
143. Pouliot - Braylon Edwards
144. Vandermark - Jermaine Gresham
ROUND 13
145. Vandermark - Brian Quick
146. Pouliot - Robert Turbin
147. Nystrom - Brent Celek
148. Bruski - Alex Green
149. Silva - Coby Fleener
150. Gleeman - Stephen Gostkowski
151. Sarris - Alfred Morris
152. Boyer - Jon Baldwin
153. Short - Seahawks Defense
154. Nelson - Martellus Bennett
155. Alexander - Dustin Keller
156. Daugherty - Jonathan Dwyer
ROUND 14
157. Daugherty - Emmanuel Sanders
158. Alexander - Chris Rainey
159. Nelson - Isaiah Pead
160. Short - Alshon Jeffery
161. Boyer - Jerome Simpson
162. Sarris - Texans Defense
163. Gleeman - Christian Ponder
164. Silva - Sebastian Janikowski
165. Bruski - Randall Cobb
166. Nystrom - Felix Jones
167. Pouliot - Daniel Thomas
168. Vandermark - LeGarrette Blount
ROUND 15 (In Progress)
169. Vandermark - Bears Defese
170. Pouliot - Mason Crosby
171. Nystrom - Broncos Defense
172. Bruski - Tim Tebow
173. Silva - Michael Floyd
174. Gleeman - Jahvid Best
175. Sarris -
176. Boyer -
177. Short -
178. Nelson -
179. Alexander -
180. Daugherty -
ROUND 16
181. Daugherty -
182. Alexander -
183. Nelson -
184. Short -
185. Boyer -
186. Sarris -
187. Gleeman -
188. Silva -
189. Bruski -
190. Nystrom -
191. Pouliot -
192. Vandermark -