Last season I brought you all the receiving targets from each week and totals as the season went along. And this season? Well, I’ll be doing the same thing!
Targets are sometimes misleading, but on the whole, they are a nice statistic to tell how much confidence the quarterback/coaches have in a receiver.
In our first installment we will look at preseason targets. It’s always difficult to judge how important preseason statistics are. Usually they aren’t important at all, but if we look only at the numbers while the starters were in, we can glean a little something.
A huge thanks to Walter over at Walter Football for compiling these stats.
Arizona Cardinals
John Skelton in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Andre Roberts: 7, Larry Fitzgerald: 6, Todd Heap: 5, Anthony Sherman: 3, Jeff King: 2, Rob Housler: 1, William Powell: 1, Michael Floyd: 1
The Cardinals look to be in the same boat (the one stranded in the desert with vultures hopping around) as they were last year. Skelton has been an improvement over Kevin Kolb as far as targeting Larry Fitzgerald, so that’s the one good thing we can get out of him winning the job (for now).
After that, it’s pretty much a wait and see game until Michael Floyd gets going, which may be next season.
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Julio Jones: 22, Roddy White: 12, Tony Gonzalez: 10, Michael Turner: 7, Harry Douglas: 5, Lousaka Polite: 2, Jacquizz Rodgers: 2, Drew Davis: 1, Mike Cox: 1, Michael Palmer: 1
All the talk of Julio Jones taking over the #1 receiver position was all just completely accurate. Mr. Jones went off in preseason and made us fake footballers salivate at the possibilities. He should lead the team in targets and fantasy points this season, I’m sure the numbers will be closer than 2 to 1, but this trend should hold.
The fact that Michael Turner had seven targets seems like an anomaly to me. It may not be, but he’s just too slow to do as much with the ball in open space as Rodgers is. I think it’s a conspiracy.
Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Torrey Smith: 16, Anquan Boldin: 10, Jacoby Jones: 8, Vonta Leach: 6, LeQuan Williams: 5, Billy Bajema: 5, Ray Rice: 3, Tandon Doss: 3, Ed Dickson: 2, Bobby Rainey: 2, Bernard Pierce: 2
The up-tempo offense the Ravens employed in preseason is evident with the target numbers for the three wide receivers. But of course Torrey Smith looked like the breakout player this summer, and his targets should continue to be high, whereas last season Boldin and Rice beat him out for total targets.
It is yet to be seen how often the Ravens will go up-tempo and air it out, but so far, the news is good for Smith. But Boldin should lose targets to him, no matter what happens. I’m staying away from Ravens’ receivers not named Smith, even with the more pass-friendly offense.
Buffalo Bills
Ryan Fitzpatrick in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Steve Johnson: 20, Scott Chandler: 6, Donald Jones: 6, Fred Jackson: 5, Derek Hagan: 4, C.J. Spiller: 3, David Nelson: 3, Lee Smith: 1
I think Fitzpatrick may prefer Stevie Jay. That leaves us guessing, just like last season, as to how the targets will be distributed after Johnson gets his turn. The Bills have enough passing attempts to give another receiver value, but until someone really steps up, I’m staying away.
Unfortunately we didn’t really get a good look as to how Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be used. Both saw passing targets and both should get time on the field, but how much time is the question. Jackson should remain the lead back and that’s about all we know.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Brandon LaFell: 6, Steve Smith: 5, Greg Olsen: 5, DeAngelo Williams: 4, Seyi Ajirotutu: 4, Jonathan Stewart: 2, Louis Murphy: 2, Mike Tolbert: 2, Ben Hartsock: 1
Steve Smith’s toes were rotting off for some of the preseason, so these numbers aren’t perfect, but there’s no doubt that Brandon LaFell and Greg Olsen will be the second and third options in the passing game.
The departure of Jeremy Shockey leaves a lot of targets for Olsen and if Newton can improve his passing this season, we could even see LaFell get enough targets to be relevant.
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Brandon Marshall: 12, Earl Bennett: 6, Devin Hester: 4, Michael Bush: 3, Alshon Jeffery: 3, Matt Forte: 2, Kellen Davis: 1
I like both Alshon Jeffery and Earl Bennett, but it looks like it might be hard for them to compete with the sheer volume of targets Brandon Marshall will see this season.
Marshall should have no trouble being a points-per-receptions stud. But if Jeffery can take over as the full time #2 receiver, he has the opportunity to be valuable, since he should be utilized in the red zone.
Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- A.J. Green: 13, Brandon Tate: 5, Jermaine Gresham: 4, Armon Binns: 4, Donald Lee: 3, Andrew Hawkins: 2, Brian Leonard: 2, BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 1, Colin Cochart: 1, Chris Pressley: 1, Cedric Peerman: 1
Not surprisingly, A.J. Green dominated the targets this preseason. He will be force-fed the ball all season, and with his ability to elevate and make spectacular receptions, he should be able to do well, even while double-covered.
The Bengals kept seven receivers on their 53 man roster and Brandon Tate is listed as their #2. But that is good news for Jermaine Gresham, who should be the #2 target all season.
Cleveland Browns
Brandon Weeden in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Greg Little: 11, Josh Gordon: 8, Brandon Jackson: 5, Mohamed Massaquoi: 4, Jordan Norwood: 3, Travis Benjamin: 3, Owen Marecic: 3, Joshua Cribbs: 2, Montario Hardesty: 2, Evan Moore: 2, Jordan Cameron: 2, Alex Smith: 2
Weeden looks to be better than Colt McCoy. And in a related note, sunburn is better than frostbite. The target hogs were Greg Little and Josh Gordon this preseason and they are the two receivers with the most fantasy potential. It’s good that those two things coincide.
Dallas Cowboys
Tony Romo in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Kevin Ogletree: 6, Dez Bryant: 5, Felix Jones: 4, DeMarco Murray: 4, John Phillips: 4, Jason Witten: 3, Cole Beasley: 3, Dwayne Harris: 2, Jamize Olawale: 1
The glut of injuries to Tony Romo’s receivers skewed the numbers above here so we can’t gain much insight from them. We might be able to say Kevin Ogletree is the preferred #3 receiver, but Dwayne Harris put on a show in their third game, so I’m not touching either with a 10 foot waiver wire.
Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Demaryius Thomas: 8, Brandon Stokley: 8, Eric Decker: 7, Lance Ball: 7, Jacob Tamme: 6, Joel Dreessen: 5, Willis McGahee: 1
Manning looked very much like he will look this season, spreading the ball around well and evenly. The number of targets for Brandon Stokley was interesting and firmly puts him into points-per-reception consideration.
The only thing separating Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas in preseason was the number of looks Decker got in the end zone. If that holds, Decker will be the fantasy winner of the two.
Another tidbit worth considering here are the eight targets for Lance Ball. With Manning mostly looking for short to mid-range passes, the third-down running back could have value in points-per-reception leagues. That looks to be Ball coming into the season, but they would prefer that Ronnie Hillman win out.
Detroit Lions
Matt Stafford in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Calvin Johnson: 12, Brandon Pettigrew: 10, Titus Young: 4, Kevin Smith: 3, Nate Burleson: 3, Mikel Leshoure: 3, Stefan Logan: 2, Tony Scheffler: 2, Patrick Edwards: 1, Keiland Williams: 1
These distribution numbers look about right. Megatron and Brandon Pettigrew are the constants on the team, while the fight for targets between Titus Young and Nate Burleson has a lot at stake for fake footballers.
It seems that Young is and should be the front runner there, but he really needs to run away with the job to be a fantasy asset.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Jordy Nelson: 10, James Jones: 7, Greg Jennings: 5, Tom Crabtree: 3, Randall Cobb: 3, Donald Driver: 3, D.J. Williams: 2, Cedric Benson: 2, Ryan Taylor: 2, James Starks: 1, Alex Green: 1, John Kuhn: 1
Last season we had a lot of fun (i.e. not really) trying to make James Jones startable, but his targets were just too erratic. This season we will likely see a reduction in targets for Donald Driver and then hope one of Jones or Cobb fills the void instead of sharing target duties.
Jordy Nelson isn’t slowing down anytime soon, so just get on board.
Houston Texans
Matt Schaub in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Andre Johnson: 8, Lestar Jean: 5, Owen Daniels: 5, Keshawn Martin: 5, James Casey: 4, Kevin Walter: 3, Arian Foster: 3, Garrett Graham: 3, Justin Forsett: 2, Ben Tate: 1
Well, we know that Andre Johnson is a beast when healthy, so that will continue. But after that, the Texans receivers aren’t the easiest to figure out. It was good to see Lestar Jean step up this preseason, because he does have the skills to be a go to guy, but right now the chances his targets will be there are slim. So he’s going to need an injury to be able to start.
The tight end situation is still a cloudy one, with Daniels, Casey and Graham all showing ability. I would be hard pressed to predict one of them as a fantasy standout this season.
Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Reggie Wayne: 15, T.Y. Hilton: 9, Coby Fleener: 8, Donnie Avery: 7, Austin Collie: 5, LaVon Brazill: 5, Donald Brown: 5, Dwayne Allen: 3, Quan Cosby: 1, Kris Adams: 1, Mewelde Moore: 1, Griff Whalen: 1
Andrew Luck showed enough this preseason to encourage me to grab some Colts’ receivers. With Austin Collie sustaining another concussion we saw Hilton, Brazill and Avery all look good with Luck throwing to them.
Reggie Wayne is the stalwart of the group of course, and with all the questions surrounding the rest of the receivers, makes for a nice, safe play, week in and week out.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Justin Blackmon: 18, Mike Thomas: 14, Laurent Robinson: 13, Marcedes Lewis: 7, Colin Cloherty: 3, Greg Jones: 2, Montell Owens: 2, Zach Miller: 2, Rashad Jennings: 2, Kevin Elliot: 1, Jalen Parmele: 1, Cecil Shorts: 1
Gabbert looked much more decisive this preseason, which should benefit his new go-to receiver, Justin Blackmon. I still don’t trust Gabbert enough to even consider the secondary receivers yet, but Blackmon is talented enough to take an excess of targets and do good things with them.
Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Cassel in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Dexter McCluster: 17, Jonathan Baldwin: 13, Kevin Boss: 6, Jamaal Charles: 6, Tony Moeaki: 6, Shaun Draughn: 5, Steve Breaston: 4, Dwayne Bowe: 4, Jake O'Connell: 1, Peyton Hillis: 1
These numbers are of course skewed by the absence of Dwayne Bowe for most of the preseason, but seeing Dexter McCluster with 17 targets is an eye-opener. If the Chiefs weren’t a run first and second team, I’d be more inclined to jump all over McCluster this year, but it’s going to be difficult for any receiver besides Bowe to be fantasy relevant on a consistent basis.
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Legedu Naanee: 10, Anthony Fasano: 9, Davone Bess: 7, Marlon Moore: 5, Roberto Wallace: 4, Reggie Bush: 3, Charles Clay: 3, B.J. Cunningham: 2, Jeff Fuller: 2, Clyde Gates: 2, Daniel Thomas: 2, Marcus Thigpen: 1, Lamar Miller: 1, Jovorski Lane: 1, Rishard Matthews: 1, Steve Slaton: 1
There’s a problem when Legedu Naanee leads the team in targets, a big problem. Tannehill has ability, but very few targets. Davone Bess is the steadiest receiver in Miami right now and the only one who might have fantasy relevance.
Minnesota Vikings
Christian Ponder in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Kyle Rudolph: 8, Michael Jenkins: 8, Percy Harvin: 6, Jerome Simpson: 4, Matt Asiata: 2, Stephen Burton: 2, Rhett Ellison: 2, Devin Aromashodu: 1, Allen Reisner: 1, Jerome Felton: 1, Toby Gerhart: 1, Lex Hilliard: 1
Ponder has been targeting Rudolph all summer in practice and then in the fake games. There’s no reason to think this connection won’t continue into the season. Be happy if you own him.
Michael Jenkins’ eight targets annoy me a bit, because all last season in this column we watched Percy Harvin get underutilized. I’m not really worried, but if he’s not at least 1 or 2 with Rudolph this season, I’m finding Frazier and giving him a good talking to (maybe I’ll just email).
New England Patriots
Tom Brady in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Aaron Hernandez: 9, Brandon Lloyd: 7, Rob Gronkowski: 6, Stevan Ridley: 3, Danny Woodhead: 2, Deion Branch: 1, Brandon Bolden: 1
Of course I have to once again point out the small sample size, but Aaron Hernandez is one of Brady’s favorite targets and I think we’ll see that even more this season. If he hadn’t been injured for two games last season, he most likely would have been second in targets to Wes Welker.
It’s also a good sign that Stevan Ridley saw three passing targets. If he can stay on the field on more passing downs, his stock rises a ton.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Pierre Thomas: 10, Jimmy Graham: 10, Devery Henderson: 8, Marques Colston: 5, Lance Moore: 5, Darren Sproles: 2, Joseph Morgan: 2, Travaris Cadet: 2, Jed Collins: 1, Mark Ingram: 1
With Darren Sproles held out for most of preseason, the numbers are skewed in Pierre Thomas’ favor. Add to that Drew Brees’ tendency to throw to every Saints player at least once, and it’s hard to get a good read here, except to say that Jimmy Graham will once again lead the team in targets.
New York Giants
Eli Manning in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Victor Cruz: 19, Ramses Barden: 9, Martellus Bennett: 6, Rueben Randle: 4, Hakeem Nicks: 2, Jerrel Jernigan: 2, Domenik Hixon: 2, D.J. Ware: 2, David Wilson: 2, Bear Pascoe: 1, Henry Hynoski: 1, Ahmad Bradshaw: 1
Hakeem Nicks’ foot injury just amplified how important Victor Cruz is to this team. He was by far the main target for Manning and even though Nicks will be right up there this season, you have to like Cruz’s stability.
After those two, the targets get a little iffier. It looks like the third receiver hasn’t quite stepped up yet and Martellus Bennett has yet to stand out. There are enough targets in New York to support a third fantasy receiver if one does arise. Keep your eyes open.
New York Jets
Mark Sanchez in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Patrick Turner: 7, Stephen Hill: 7, Shonn Greene: 6, Santonio Holmes: 4, Jordan White: 3, Dustin Keller: 3, John Conner: 2, Josh Baker: 2, Dedrick Epps: 1, Jeff Cumberland: 1
Run very far away.
And then look back (Tebow will keep you from turning into a pillar of salt) and hope that Santonio Holmes steps up his game and Sanchez targets him early and often every single game.
Sanchez loves to target Dustin Keller, so there’s always some possibility there, but I’d like to see Holmes with the ball more often. He’s the only true playmaker on the team.
Oakland Raiders
Carson Palmer in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Rod Streater: 17, Brandon Myers: 9, Darrius Heyward-Bey: 8, Jacoby Ford: 5, Darren McFadden: 5, Richard Gordon: 3, Taiwan Jones: 3, Eddie McGee: 3, Mike Goodson: 2, David Ausberry: 1, Marcel Reece: 1
Being an Oakland Raider receiver is risky business. The chances of you being injured or mauled by a cougar are much higher than if you, say, are a receiver on a different team (unless it’s San Diego). So the 17 targets for Streater was helped by Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford being hurt, but it did help the undrafted rookie establish himself as a capable player, with fantasy upside.
The best fantasy player on the team, Darren McFadden, didn’t see a ton of action in the preseason, but did manage five targets from Palmer in the passing game. That’s nothing to scoff at, and really, scoffing is just so out right now.
Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Clay Harbor: 2, DeSean Jackson: 2, Damaris Johnson: 1, Jason Avant: 1, LeSean McCoy: 1
Vick really didn’t play enough for these numbers to mean anything. Jeremy Maclin should be the target leader this season, with Desean Jackson and Brent Celek next in line.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Antonio Brown: 12, Emmanuel Sanders: 7, Chris Rainey: 5, Jerricho Cotchery: 4, David Johnson: 2, Leonard Pope: 2, Jonathan Dwyer: 2, Heath Miller: 2, Isaac Redman: 2
With Mike Wallace gone much longer than his allotted 60 minutes, Antonio Brown stood and delivered (and also ran and jumped and caught, etc…). He has the edge on targets going into the season and there’s a decent chance he keeps the edge all season.
At this point Wallace and Brown (sorry Gromit) are the only two receivers worth owning in fantasy. The amount of time speedster Chris Rainey was on the field and targeted was intriguing, but his touches will be extremely limited.
San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Malcom Floyd: 7, Ronnie Brown: 6, Antonio Gates: 6, Michael Spurlock: 3, Robert Meachem: 3, Le'Ron McClain: 2, Vincent Brown: 1, Randy McMichael: 1
As long as Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd can stay on the field, they’ll be the favorite targets for Rivers. Of course keeping Charger receivers healthy is a fool’s errand, but it is what it is.
As you can see, Ronnie Brown was the favorite receiving running back and I believe that will continue while Ryan Mathews is out. And when Mathews come back, just sit back and watch the receptions pour in.
San Francisco 49ers
Alex Smith in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Michael Crabtree: 6, Kendall Hunter: 3, Randy Moss: 3, Vernon Davis: 2, Anthony Dixon: 1, Demarcus Dobbs: 1, Ted Ginn: 1, Mario Manningham: 1, Brett Swain: 1
Vernon Davis was the only known fantasy playmaker in the receiving game coming into the season, while Michael Crabtree was the low ceiling target guy. They brought Randy Moss in to help stretch the field, but we’ve yet to see it in preseason. Moss is listed as the #2 receiver, so we should at least get a chance to see how hard he tries.
Look for Kendall Hunter to take over the majority of the passing targets at running back and maybe more as the season progresses.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Terrell Owens: 4, Anthony McCoy: 4, Sidney Rice: 4, Golden Tate: 4, Kellen Winslow: 4, Braylon Edwards: 3, Charly Martin: 2, Vai Taua: 2, Sean McGrath: 1, Deon Butler: 1, Kregg Lumpkin: 1, Ben Obomanu: 1, Michael Robinson: 1, Zach Miller: 1
I am a card carrying member of the Russell Wilson fan club and I’m hoping his receivers step it up and quick. Throughout the preseason he distributed the ball well and moved the offense, even with second rate receivers. Two of his top targeted receivers have been cut!
There is some good news with Sidney Rice finally healthy enough to play. He most likely will be Wilson’s number one receiver until he gets hurt again. After that, we have to hope Baldwin or Tate or Miller step up.
St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Steve Smith: 13, Danny Amendola: 10, Lance Kendricks: 7, Austin Pettis: 5, Daryl Richardson: 5, Brandon Gibson: 3, Mike McNeil: 3, Isaiah Pead: 1, Mike Hoomanawanui: 1, Ovie Mughelli: 1, Matthew Mulligan: 1, Steven Jackson: 1
It looks like Bradford will continue to throw short to mid-range passes and focus on his possession receivers. Both Smith and Amendola have some value in points-per-receptions leagues going into the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Mike Williams: 8, Vincent Jackson: 8, Doug Martin: 4, Preston Parker: 4, Dallas Clark: 3, Danny Noble: 2, LeGarrette Blount: 1, Zack Pianalto: 1, Luke Stocker: 1
Josh Freeman was not on target this preseason, but he did give his targets to the three best Bucs players. If all goes as planned these numbers look like the perfect split for us fake footballers.
Mike Williams should be the underneath/goal line receiver, Vincent Jackson the medium/deep threat and Doug Martin the outlet receiver. I like Martin the most, but if Freeman can get back on target, Jackson and Williams will have value in the NFC South.
Tennessee Titans
Jake Locker in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Kendall Wright: 14, Jared Cook: 9, Nate Washington: 7, Javon Ringer: 4, Craig Stevens: 4, Darius Reynaud: 4, Damian Williams: 3, Lavelle Hawkins: 2, Jamie Harper: 1, Chris Johnson: 1
Of course this is without Kenny Britt, but the news is good for rookie Kendall Wright. Besides playing well, he was Locker’s favorite receiver. If he can outplay Nate Washington in the first couple games, he might become a must start. But if he’s sharing targets with Washington and Cook, once Britt comes back, he’ll have a hard time staying consistent.
Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin III in at quarterback, the targets looked like so -- Pierre Garcon: 14, Leonard Hankerson: 5, Santana Moss: 3, Niles Paul: 2, Fred Davis: 2, Chris Cooley: 1, Tim Hightower: 1, Josh Morgan: 1, Alfred Morris: 1, Dorson Boyce: 1.
These numbers jibe with what most of us noticed, that Pierre Garcon was RGIII’s go to receiver. But the numbers after that are tough to parse. Josh Morgan is listed as the #2 receiver, but we’ll most likely see him and Leonard Hankerson splitting time, while Santana Moss sees less time on the field as the slot receiver.
The lack of targets for Fred Davis is a little troubling, but this is a small sample size. It seems inevitable that Davis and Garcon will win the target battle as the season goes on.