Matchups: Ridley Me This

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

I stated in the St. Louis-Detroit rundown that Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback play in the league this week. Cam Newton might have something to say about that. Newton chewed up the Bucs and spit them out last year, in two games accounting for a whopping eight touchdowns (four pass, four rush) and 9.87 yards-per-attempt average. Aside from two promising draft picks and a coaching staff change, I don't see many reasons to believe the Bucs' defense will be able to stop Cam in 2012. Greg Schiano has already admitted they're just hoping to contain him. ... The Bucs under Raheem Morris used Aqib Talib to shadow No. 1 receivers, and he often held his own against Steve Smith. But Tampa Bay paid new RCB Eric Wright enough money (five years, $38 million) this offseason that Schiano's staff may cease the approach. Smith has always run the majority of his perimeter pass patterns against right cornerbacks, and that's Wright's side of the field. Smith could single-handedly take this game over if he matches up with burnable Wright.

Brandon LaFell offers breakout appeal as a newly-anointed every-down receiver in an explosive, vertical passing attack. I thought he looked like a fairly average talent during my offseason game study, though, and am not quite bullish on the third-year wideout. In this particular matchup, LaFell still makes for an adequate WR3. ... Coach Ron Rivera talked up Greg Olsen as being on par with the Grahams and Gronkowskis of the NFL during one training-camp interview. Olsen has never and will never be as red-zone dominant as Gronk, and doesn't create nearly as many mismatch issues as Graham. I like Olsen as a TE2 with mid-range to low-end TE1 upside, but doubt he'll push for elite fantasy production. Look for Olsen to match up often with rookies Mark Barron and Lavonte David in this game. ... We'll know more about Jonathan Stewart's ankle after Friday's practice, but as of this writing he appears unlikely to play. The Bucs have ranked 28th or worse against the run three straight years, and appear poised to again field one of the NFL's most porous defenses up front. DeAngelo Williams will be a shoo-in top-15 running back option if Stewart sits out this game.

Friday Evening Update: Stewart missed a third straight practice Friday. Although he's plenty versed in the offense, players that get in zero practice time rarely play on game day. Look for Mike Tolbert to step in as a powerful change-of-pace option while Williams assumes true feature back duties. The matchup is right and Carolina should score enough points that Williams is now a borderline RB1. Expect no fewer than 17 touches.

Coming off a season in which he took major steps backward, Josh Freeman did nothing to allay fears about his going-forward effectiveness with a thoroughly inefficient August. He completed under 53 percent of his preseason throws and averaged a pathetic 4.8 yards per pass attempt, showing chemistry only with Vincent Jackson in an otherwise uninspiring pass-catching corps. Freeman's inaccuracy was a major 2011 issue, and it looked worse this summer. Tampa beat writers expect Freeman to start slow. It's a safe bet as Schiano leans on a run-first approach. ... The Bucs' offense figures to feature Jackson and Doug Martin while Mike Williams, Dallas Clark, and LeGarrette Blount play complementary, support-type roles. Martin earned the every-down back job by running circles around Blount in camp practices and preseason games. He's a strong RB2 against Carolina's annually weak run defense. Defenses will probably scheme to take away V-Jax this year, but he should be open plenty against a defense similarly vulnerable to the pass.

Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Bucs 17

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ Denver

I don't expect Rashard Mendenhall (knee) to play despite Mike Tomlin's early-week optimism, but I wouldn't invest in Pittsburgh's backfield Sunday night regardless. Isaac Redman is a poor man's Tim Hightower now trying to play through groin, ankle, and hip injuries. Passing-down work will be divvied up amongst Redman, Baron Batch, and rookie scatback Chris Rainey. Early downs figure to be shared by Redman and Jonathan Dwyer. Fantasy owners love to complain about Redskins running backs, but this backfield is arguably more muddled and will become more so once Mendenhall returns. Although he's merely a low-end flex option, my pick would be Dwyer if you're desperate to start a Steelers back in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if Redman owners end up dropping him in a week or two. ... Heath Miller started three preseason games in Todd Haley's new offense and was targeted twice, securing both for 15 yards. Haley has overseen five offenses in his coaching career, and the best line produced by a tight end during that span was Tony Moeaki's 47/556/3 in 2010. Moeaki finished as the No. 20 fantasy tight end. I'm not optimistic about Miller this season.

If the Broncos defend Mike Wallace as they did in January's playoffs, he will match up early and often with shutdown CB Champ Bailey. Wallace found the end zone in that game on a fluky one-yard rushing score, but was limited to three catches for 26 yards on a whopping ten targets. If you want to wait a week to start Wallace after his month-long holdout, now is the time. ... Antonio Brown outproduced Wallace down last season's stretch because he saw friendlier coverage looks, got open more regularly due to superior versatility, and is plenty talented in his own right. Having already mastered Haley's system -- 11 preseason grabs for 204 yards and three TDs -- Brown is the heavy favorite to lead Pittsburgh in receiving Sunday night. I think he's a borderline WR1. ... Ben Roethlisberger was picked as a QB2 in most fantasy drafts and is best viewed in that same light for Week 1. I think he offers more upside than meets the eye over the course of the season, though, particularly if Haley opens things up. Big Ben can be as productive as the playcalling lets him be. ... Emmanuel Sanders would require a Wallace or Brown injury to become a consistent fantasy producer, but he's another factor working in Roethlisberger's fantasy favor. Sanders, in fact, led the Steelers with 81 yards on six catches in the aforementioned playoff game at Denver.

I should have gotten this out of the way before: I think the Steelers will go to Mile High and whip the Broncos in prime time. Pittsburgh will control this game offensively and defensively. Denver lacks up-front protection to repel LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, and Brett Keisel's rush, and nobody runs on a Dick LeBeau defense. A low-scoring projection for Denver's offense can be used effectively as a tiebreaker for fantasy football lineup decisions. ... Willis McGahee has faced the Steelers' 3-4 four times over the past two seasons and managed a pathetic 111 yards with one touchdown on 44 carries (2.52 YPC). I will like McGahee when he plays the San Diego and Oaklands of the AFC West. I'm not starting him against a defense that will eliminate him.

I'm not starting Peyton Manning, either. His final ADP was QB9, suggesting most fantasy owners view him as a back-end QB1. Back-end QB1s are generally bench material versus elite defenses, and that's precisely what Manning will face on Sunday night. I want to see a 36-year-old coming off four neck surgeries play well in a tough matchup before I declare him start-worthy in tough matchups. ... Eric Decker is Denver's top fantasy bet after showing the best preseason chemistry with Manning among Broncos pass catchers. ... Manning attempted 42 passes in August. His target distribution: Decker 7, Lance Ball 7, Demaryius Thomas 7, Brandon Stokley 7, Jacob Tamme 7, Joel Dreessen 6, McGahee 1. ... Ball's heavy first-team involvement is a reminder that he's well out in front of rookie Ronnie Hillman in the battle for snaps behind McGahee. Hillman is also behind Knowshon Moreno. ... I'm a huge believer in Thomas' big-play ability. He is a beast after the catch. I don't think he'll start as fast as Decker, but I'd play Thomas confidently as a WR2/3. ... Stokley and Dreessen's August targets suggest Tamme may have to share the right to be Manning's third passing-game option, behind Thomas and Decker. I wouldn't feel good about Tamme as a TE1 beyond perhaps PPR leagues.

Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Broncos 13

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

If preseason games were any indication -- and in-the-know Baltimore people say they were -- the Ravens are turning to the no-huddle as their base offense. Joe Flacco was terrific in the up-tempo attack this August, completing 71.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick. "Defenses have gotten so complicated," Flacco told SI.com's Peter King. "When you slow it down and get into a huddle before every play, you're playing into their hands, allowing them to dictate the tempo of the game. This way, we take control of the game." Flacco loves the revised offense, and he is capable of starting fast in a favorable Monday night matchup. Cincinnati's defense looks brutal in the back end, with first-rounder Dre Kirkpatrick out after two knee injuries and coverage liability Taylor Mays starting at strong safety. Washed-up veterans Nate Clements and Terence Newman are being counted on for major roles. The Bengals' best defensive back is Leon Hall, and he is coming off a ruptured Achilles'. Expect the Ravens to have lots of passing success in Week 1.

Although the new offense could eventually breathe life into TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson, neither is start-able in Week 1 after Pitta missed most of camp with a broken hand, and Dickson a subluxed shoulder. ... Look Torrey Smith's way for Monday night passing-game points. He showed greatly improved intermediate route-running chops in August, creating separation at every level of the defense and along the sideline. In less than three preseason quarters, Smith dressed down the Falcons and Jaguars' first-team defenses for 11 catches and 146 yards. Hall sticks to one side of the field, and the Bengals' other corners lack foot speed to run with Baltimore's emerging No. 1 receiver. ... Anquan Boldin's third straight late-season fade may begin earlier this year going on age 32, but he still has fresh legs in late summer and early fall and is a solid bet for a red-zone touchdown on Monday night. ... Ray Rice has faced the Bengals eight times in his career. He's rung up 681 yards on 139 carries (4.90 YPC) and seven touchdowns while averaging nearly 120 all-purpose yards per game. There's every reason to think Rice is set up for another big effort.

I saw some offseason hype on the 2012 Bengals after last year's team played above its head, at least for the first few games. Let's hit that with a fire extinguisher. Cincinnati started 6-2 against the league's softest first-half schedule before playing like the bad team everyone expected in the final eight weeks. In the last nine, Andy Dalton managed just seven touchdowns and turned the ball over a dozen times, as his talent limitations were exposed facing halfway decent defenses. The Bengals are going to be worse on offense this year. They lost two starting linemen (LG Travelle Wharton, C Kyle Cook) to injured reserve during the preseason, and first-round RG Kevin Zeitler was up and down. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a downgrade from Cedric Benson, lacking any hint of elusiveness or big-play ability. They're also downgrading at No. 2 receiver, going from Jerome Simpson to a rotation of Brandon Tate and Armon Binns. Rookie Mohamed Sanu is buried on the depth chart.

Although Baltimore's defense can't possibly be as good minus difference-making RE/OLB Terrell Suggs (Achilles'), this unit is still capable of shutting down running games and making life difficult against the pass. The only Bengals skill-position player worth a Week 1 fantasy start is A.J. Green, who figures to be a target monster because Cincinnati basically has no one else. Jermaine Gresham missed much of camp with a knee injury, and the issues up front can be easily exposed by Haloti Ngata, Terrence Cody, Arthur Jones, Pernell McPhee, and Paul Kruger. I like the Ravens to manhandle the Bengals in this game. I'm not sure Cincinnati can even make it close.

Score Prediction: Ravens 21, Bengals 10

San Diego @ Oakland

Philip Rivers has an impressive statistical track record over six seasons as an NFL starter, but I wondered aloud this offseason whether we might have seen the best of him, and I continue to worry that may be the case. The indefinite absence of LT Jared Gaither is a major concern, and clearly not one the Chargers prepared for seeing as their fallback plan is undrafted rookie Mike Harris. Norv Turner's offense is vertical in nature, requiring some semblance of sustained pass protection to execute. Recall that Gaither started the final five games of last season after being claimed off waivers in late November. Rivers' stats with Gaither on his blindside: 110-of-163 (67.5 percent) for 1,413 yards (8.67 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and three picks. Rivers' stats pre-Gaither: 256-of-419 (61.1 percent) for 3,211 yards (7.66 YPA), 16:17 TD-to-INT ratio. I'm very concerned about this passing offense. ... Until defenses decide to begin eliminating him with bracket coverage, Antonio Gates should be the one constant in Rivers' 2012 pass-catching corps. Gates has a touchdown in three of his past four meetings with the Raiders. In Week 17 last year, Gates ripped Oakland for 106 yards and a score on five catches. I expect a big game on Monday night.

Robert Meachem showed little chemistry with Rivers in camp and preseason games, finishing August with one catch for seven yards. While Oakland won't field an intimidating pass defense this year, I want to see Meachem put something acceptable in a box score before starting him. ... Malcom Floyd is the stronger bet Monday night if you're dying to start a Chargers wideout. Floyd should spend most of this game in burnable RCB Shawntae Spencer's coverage, and has no "rapport" concerns with his quarterback. ... Ronnie Brown is expected to be San Diego's lead back until Ryan Mathews returns from his fractured collarbone, which figures to happen in Week 2 or 3. San Diego played its starters in the preseason finale, so I went back and watched that game to take notes for this column. The Chargers' first-team offense played 15 snaps, and Brown was in on 14 of them. Jackie Battle -- not Curtis Brinkley -- looked like the No. 2. Brown showed very little as a rusher and receiver, but he should be on the field quite a bit against Oakland and is a legit threat for 20 touches. He's worth flex consideration. ... Eddie Royal annually garners offseason buzz from media types, but he hasn't been a fantasy asset in four seasons. Now the No. 4 option at best in a sputtering passing offense, it's hard to imagine Royal recapturing rookie-year form.

One aspect of Oakland's new offense that Darren McFadden owners will quickly come to enjoy is playcaller Greg Knapp's passion for running the football relentlessly. Among this generation's run-heaviest minds, Knapp's offenses have finished in the league's top five in rushing attempts seven times in his nine years as a coordinator. He worked on Houston's staff last season, and they tied for the NFL lead in carries. San Diego's front seven has improved, but it may not matter when perhaps the league's most gifted runner south of Minnesota is handling the rock 30 times a game. McFadden is the best fantasy bet in both Monday night matchups. ... Aside from Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland's pass game is best left avoided in Week 1. Carson Palmer struggled all preseason in Knapp's new offense. Rod Streater's outlook is dependent on Denarius Moore's (hamstring) availability, and Moore looks like a true game-time decision. Jacoby Ford (foot) almost certainly won't play. Heyward-Bey is the only intriguing receiver gamble. He racked up 130 yards and a touchdown on nine catches against a similar-looking Chargers secondary in Week 17 last year.

Friday Evening Update: Moore put on a show during Friday's practice and now appears set to play Monday night, barring a setback over the next two days. I like this news for the Week 1 outlook of Oakland's offense, as well as my final-score prediction. I'd still play it cautiously with Moore and put him on a "prove-it" week. If he has a big night, great. We'll know to start him next week.

Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Chargers 20

1:00PM ET Games

Indianapolis @ Chicago

When pitting Bears personnel against the Colts' on an offense-versus-defense basis, the one major mismatch that stands out is Chicago's powerful, versatile run game, which should ram the ball down Indy's throat. The Colts lost NT Brandon McKinney (ACL), NT Josh Chapman (knee), and top ILB Pat Angerer (foot) for extended periods in the preseason, and all three were slated to be key cogs in new coach Chuck Pagano's run defense. Keep an eye on Michael Bush's usage while this game is still in doubt, but Matt Forte is an easy top-ten running back play in Week 1. Bush will be Chicago's primary goal-line back, but he's not a flex option until we see him getting a significant piece of the open-field playing-time pie. ... Kellen Davis, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, and rookie Alshon Jeffery are players to monitor in Week 1, but not start in fantasy leagues. We need to learn more about their roles in the passing game. Jeffery, of course, is the most intriguing prospect in the group after a productive preseason. We just don't even know whether he'll start.

A lot of folks have written off the Colts as a pushover opponent. They're going to surprise some people this year. An immediate strength defensively should be Indy's play against the pass. RCB Jerraud Powers and new LCB Vontae Davis form a dynamic corner duo, and OLB Robert Mathis along with RE/OLB Dwight Freeney can still apply pressure to quarterbacks. I think the Bears will struggle if they get too cute and let Jay Cutler try to win this game with his arm. Brandon Marshall is an every-week fantasy starter, but Cutler is a QB2 and his protection issues aren't going away.

Andrew Luck's preseason statistics don't tell the whole story. His movement inside the pocket, persistence keeping his eyes downfield, and overall awareness are already on par with some of the league's elite signal callers. Luck is going to be a really good rookie starter, and strong QB2. From a fantasy perspective, this bodes especially well for Colts pass catchers. Although he's morphing into a late-career possession receiver, Reggie Wayne still runs precise enough routes with crisp enough footwork to get open for 6-8 catches a game. Austin Collie seems like a "risk" coming off his fourth concussion in 21 months, but he will be an every-week fantasy starter once he resumes a full-time role. Based on game tape, I think there's reason to believe Collie is Indy's best wideout whenever he's playing. The Bears field too stingy a pass defense for Luck to be a top-12 quarterback play in Week 1, but Wayne should be started with confidence in PPR leagues. Give Collie a "wait and see" week, then play him next Sunday against the Vikings if he's active.

Friday Evening Update: Collie was limited in practice Friday and is listed as questionable on the injury report. The Colts say he'll be a game-day decision, but it appears he's yet to receive medical clearance. Wayne is the only start-able Colts pass catcher this week.

Donald Brown was a popular mid-round alleged "value" pick, but Brown drafters are likely to end up disappointed. Rookie Vick Ballard's role will grow by the week, and trusted Bruce Arians third-down back Mewelde Moore will cut sizably into Brown's passing-game role. Chicago fielded a top-five run defense in 2011 and returns all front-seven starters. Brown is a low-end flex against the Bears. Be sure to bail on Brown quick if he somehow delivers a strong performance. Brown's own talent limitations and Indianapolis' impending three-back rotation will be drains on his year-long outlook. ... Luck attempted 62 preseason passes. The target breakdown: Wayne 16, T.Y. Hilton 10, Coby Fleener 8, Donnie Avery 7, Collie 6 (in under three quarters), LaVon Brazill 5, Brown 4, Dwayne Allen 3. ... Colts pass catchers behind Wayne and Collie will likely render each other inconsistent and ultimately fantasy insignificant until one emerges. Keep an eye on the pecking order, but there are no Week 1 fantasy starters here beyond the top two.

Score Prediction: Bears 23, Colts 17

Atlanta @ Kansas City

If you read Rotoworld, you've heard a lot about our belief that Atlanta's passing game will join the league's elite this season. Perhaps the Arrowhead Effect will have something to say about it, but the Chiefs' on-paper pass defense looks like a nice place to start. Kansas City's best defender, OLB Tamba Hali, is out on suspension. Top CB Brandon Flowers (heel) missed all of camp and figures to be a bit rusty out of the gate. FS Kendrick Lewis (shoulder) definitely won't play, and top tackler Derrick Johnson (ankle) is less than 100 percent. Matt Ryan's pocket should be clean as the Falcons' offense starts fast. ... The Chiefs have always "played sides" at cornerback during Romeo Crennel's two years as defensive overseer. Flowers plays all of his snaps at left corner, and Stanford Routt is now on the right. Julio Jones runs the majority of routes on Routt's side and has a more favorable matchup than Roddy White. Routt allowed the second most touchdown passes of any cornerback in the NFL last year. Look for a big game from Julio.

White's game has changed since he entered the league. He's gone from one-route burner at 25 to possession receiver turning 31 in November. I still think White can be an every-week WR2, but expect there to be a changing of the guard in Atlanta's receiver pecking order. Jones will be new OC Dirk Koetter's clear No. 1. ... I've gotten a lot of questions about whether Harry Douglas will "break out" in 2012. People have been saying he might for four years. It never happened, and I doubt it will this season. ... Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner finished 2011 with respectable final fantasy stats, but they are fading veterans who will put you at weekly disadvantages if you count on them to start. Turner will lose significant playing time to Jacquizz Rodgers, who is a better fit for Koetter's offense. Turner will kill your week if he doesn't get a goal-line touchdown. Gonzo has been on fumes for two years. An incredibly pass-heavy offense could keep his production afloat somewhat, but at the same time it wouldn't be surprising if Gonzalez lost snaps in the open field.

I liked the design of Kansas City's run game entering camp, and I liked the on-field product even more in August. Jamaal Charles has been setback free and lost no burst or cutting ability after last September's ACL tear. Peyton Hillis' legs are fresh and he may actually see more field time than Charles early in the season as a superior pass blocker and power-running specialist. Charles and Hillis get Week 1 matchup boosts from the absence of Falcons DT Corey Peters (foot), who will be replaced by 2009 first-round bust Peria Jerry. Kansas City may run the football as often as any team in the game, allowing Hillis and Charles both to pile up substantial week-to-week workloads. A borderline RB1, expect Charles to flirt with 14-16 carries against Atlanta and catch 2-4 passes. I'd look for 10-14 rushing attempts from Hillis, with 3-5 receptions. I like Charles as a borderline RB1 and Hillis as a potentially high-scoring flex. The Chiefs are loaded with talent on the offensive line and in the backfield. They have a ground attack capable of legitimately taking over games.

We'll know more about OC Brian Daboll's offensive mindset after Week 1, but I expect the Chiefs to essentially use the pass as a change-of-pace play this year. I think they're copycatting the 2011 Texans, installing a full-blown zone-run scheme with Charles as a lesser version of Arian Foster, Hillis as a rich man's Ben Tate, and Dwayne Bowe as Andre Johnson. Tony Moeaki can be Owen Daniels, and Kevin Boss the Joel Dreessen. While there aren't enough pass attempts to support more than one fantasy-viable receiver in an offense like this, it certainly can benefit a guy like Bowe. Charles, Hillis, and the O-Line command eight defenders in the box, freeing Bowe from double teams and allowing him to beat defensive backs one-on-one with physicality at the catch point, then RAC ability once the ball is secured. Moeaki, Boss, Jon Baldwin, Steve Breaston, and Dexter McCluster will be complementary players vying for scraps in an offense featuring Charles, Hillis, and Bowe.

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Chiefs 24

Philadelphia @ Cleveland

Break down this matchup from top to bottom, and the only factor working in Cleveland's favor is the location of the game. No defense was hit harder by offseason and training camp injuries than the Browns, who will be without NT Phil Taylor (pectoral), WLB Chris Gocong (Achilles'), and promising rookie LB James-Michael Johnson (oblique). Replacing Gocong and Johnson, respectively, will be undrafted free agent L.J. Fort and career special teamer Kaluka Maiava. LeSean McCoy should tag this defense for big-time stats. He might be the best fantasy running back play in the NFL this week. ... The Browns' defensive strength is secondary play, but not to the extent that they can stop one of the league's most lethal passing attacks. Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin should have their way with 33-year-old RCB Sheldon Brown down the left sideline Sunday, using play-action fakes to McCoy to set up vertical connections. Look for DeSean Jackson to spend most of this game in LCB Joe Haden's man coverage, while Jason Avant tries to fight off Dimitri Patterson in the slot.

I like Maclin to lead Philly in receiving by a healthy margin Sunday. He has the best matchup among Eagles pass catchers and is also Vick's most well-rounded receiver. ... Brent Celek was the subject of offseason hype after last year's fast finish, but he's an in-line tight end who does not run consistent pass routes and falls in line fourth or fifth on Philadelphia's passing-game totem pole. Maclin and D-Jax are clearly Nos. 1 and 2. McCoy and Avant each have fair arguments for No. 3. Celek is a better real-life than fantasy player. He's a mid-range TE2, and someone you definitely don't want as your starter. With Jason Peters done for the season and Demetress Bell not panning out, Celek may get stuck helping left tackle King Dunlap block more often than not.

I won't write extensively about the Cleveland passing offense because I wouldn't start any of its members in a fantasy league this week. I do want to discuss the Eagles' fantasy defense. The Browns' first-team offensive line struggled mightily with both interior and edge pressure in the preseason. Rookie RT Mitchell Schwartz and second-year LG Jason Pinkston were the primary culprits, and Brandon Weeden's first instinct was to drift backwards rather than stand tall in the pocket and make a quick decision. Weeden fumbled three times, losing two, in three exhibition games, and committed another turnover on an interception forced into coverage. Weeden's tendency to "drift" away from the pocket is most alarming long term, and something the Eagles surely noticed in the third preseason game, when these same teams squared off. Weeden took three sacks and fumbled twice in less than two quarters. Start Philadelphia's defense in Week 1.

Philly's 9-Technique system in the front four sacrifices running lanes in exchange for lining up defensive ends at advantageous pass-rush angles. It translates to a lot of sacks, but doesn't help in run defense. Unfortunately, we have no clarity in the Browns' Week 1 running game. Rookie Trent Richardson (knee) will likely be active, but rotate with Montario Hardesty on early downs. Look for Brandon Jackson to handle most, if not all of the passing downs. I think Cleveland stands little chance of keeping this game close, and a blowout deficit might lead to Jackson playing the most backfield snaps because the Browns will be in so many obvious passing situations. It's a fantasy headache. As much as I love Richardson's talent and think this is a favorable run-game matchup, I want to see him earn a role in the passing game before I start him as more than a dicey flex.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Browns 3

Washington @ New Orleans

Vegas has tabbed Redskins-Saints with the highest over-under of any Week 1 game (50). I love starting fantasy players in projected shootouts because they tend to lead to more up-tempo, aggressive offense and increased box-score production. That's precisely what we're looking for in fantasy football. ... Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, and Darren Sproles should be locked into lineups. I think Graham will pace all tight ends in fantasy scoring this season. Colston finished as the No. 11 fantasy receiver in 2011 despite missing two games. Secondary play is Washington's defensive weakness, particularly nickel back Cedric Griffin, who is being employed at left cornerback in all sub-packages while DeAngelo Hall drops deep to play free safety. Brees should have all kinds of success throwing Griffin's way. Sproles won't hit double-digit carries every week, but he compensates with heavy usage in the pass game, where per-touch yardage averages are higher anyway. He's an every-week RB2 in all fantasy settings.

Mark Ingram was a 2011 fantasy disappointment, but he operated as the primary red-zone back when New Orleans-first team offense was on the field this preseason. Ingram also returns as the backfield's favorite for rushing attempts. There won't be many weeks when Ingram isn't a worthwhile flex play. He has double-digit touchdown potential. ... Pierre Thomas is a rock-solid NFL player and key cog in New Orleans' three-man backfield, but he's third on the totem pole from a fantasy perspective because Ingram hogs scoring opportunities and Sproles gets most of the catches. Thomas would need an Ingram or Sproles injury to be a fantasy starter. He's more of an RB4 right now. ... Devery Henderson, Chris Ivory, Travaris Cadet, and Joseph Morgan are not worth roster spots in 12-team leagues. ... Lance Moore is an intriguing WR4/5 because his field time may rise this season with Robert Meachem gone. He's still the fourth option in the passing game behind Graham, Colston, and Sproles, meaning Moore is likely destined for inconsistency.

Saints DC Steve Spagnuolo's defensive scheme depends heavily on front-four pressure, which worked great with the Eagles and Giants, and not so well with the Rams. I think it plays right into the Redskins' hands. With RE Will Smith on suspension and the rest of Spags' unit displaying limited pass-rush ability, an otherwise suspect Washington offensive line should be able to keep Robert Griffin III's pocket clean for reasonable stretches in Sunday's opener. In the back end, top Saints CB Jabari Greer missed virtually all of camp after August 2 sports hernia surgery and is just now getting back into the swing of things. I wouldn't go nuts starting RG3 in his NFL debut at an amped-up Superdome, but I'd feel good about Griffin in two-quarterback leagues and Pierre Garcon as a borderline WR2. This game's shootout potential enhances Garcon's fantasy appeal.

Friday Evening Update: In a stunning development, the NFL lost the right to impose suspensions for the Saints' 2009-2011 Bounty Scandal, and Smith will be active against Washington. Keep in mind Smith didn't get in a single practice this week and may start slow, but he's going to play. I might downgrade Griffin's fantasy outlook slightly with this news.

I think there is legitimate reason to worry about Fred Davis' quiet preseason (three games, two targets) because the Redskins have wide receivers this year. They didn't during Davis' breakout 2011 season. The revised offense looks more perimeter and rushing-attack oriented, featuring Garcon outside the numbers while the zone-boot game keeps defenses off balance by way of a dual-threat quarterback. Davis is a back-end TE1 against the Saints, but I think you'll be disappointed if he's your starter all year. I could be wrong. ... Redskins receivers beyond Garcon are fantasy bench material until proven otherwise. Santana Moss has been reduced to part-timer, while Leonard Hankerson and Josh Morgan figure to open the season rotating at the "Z" position. I'm not sure any of them are worth 12-team league roster spots. ... Roy Helu is the best running back the Redskins have, but he's currently listed as a second-stringer between hard-charging plodders Evan Royster (No. 1) and Alfred Morris (3). Royster is the best Week 1 fantasy bet of the bunch. He also presents significant risk with usage governed by the whims of Shanahan & Son.

Score Prediction: Saints 31, Redskins 23

St. Louis @ Detroit

If you want a safe Week 1 winner in your Eliminator League, the Lions are an awfully good choice. At home against a Rams team already short on talent and transitioning systems both offensively and defensively, the Lions ought to grab an early lead and run away with this game. That kind of scenario would bode particularly well for tailback Kevin Smith, who has recovered from his August ankle tweak and is practicing without restrictions. He wasn't even listed on this week's injury report. As long as Smith stays healthy, he should be a comfortable bet for 18-24 weekly touches. ... In 15 career games at Ford Field, Matthew Stafford has accounted for 36 touchdowns. He was especially sharp at home last year, completing over 66 percent of his passes with a 20:7 TD-to-INT ratio. I think Stafford is the premier quarterback play in fantasy football this week. ... Despite playing a "deep" position, Calvin Johnson was the only wide receiver worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts because he's head-and-shoulders above the field. He gives you a huge week-by-week advantage. Johnson's last 17 games inside a dome: 93 catches, 1,505 yards (1,544 all-purpose), and 16 touchdowns. Yeah, Megatron is pretty good.

Also working in Smith's favor is the absence of Rams 325-pound run plugger Michael Brockers due to a high ankle sprain. St. Louis' thin defense had hoped to turn to a rotation of undrafted rookie Matt Conrath and waiver pickup Kellen Heard next to Kendall Langford. Conrath (knee), however, will miss this game as well. Smith is primed for success. ... Titus Young has a fine Week 1 matchup and offers breakout potential over the course of the season, but I'd like to see him locked into a full-time receiver role before counting on Young as more than a dicey WR3. He played under 65 percent of Detroit's 2011 offensive snaps and was held under 60 yards in 12-of-17 games. ... I do like Young better than pedestrian slot man Nate Burleson and slow-footed tight end Brandon Pettigrew. Pettigrew is a worthwhile back-end TE1 in PPR leagues because he plays in an offense that throws so often, but he's never ranked higher than 11th among standard league tight ends. Burleson's role will diminish in favor of Young and rookie Ryan Broyles, beginning perhaps as soon as this week. We'll know more about the usages behind Megatron after Week 1.

We'll keep the Rams breakdown to one paragraph because there is so little fantasy talent on St. Louis' roster. The guys to take seriously are Steven Jackson, who looked terrific all August, and slot-turned-full-time receiver Danny Amendola. Falling behind early could cost S-Jax some open-field attempts, but he's still a good bet for 20-plus touches and will rarely come off the field. Isaiah Pead's preseason struggles (3.08 YPC average) were quietly a plus for Jackson's fantasy value. He really has no competition for carries. ... In the past, Amendola has been strictly a slot guy who enters the game on passing downs. The new coaching staff is using him as an every-down player. In the third preseason game, Amendola played all but one snap with St. Louis' first-team offense, lining up at X and slot receiver while Steve Smith, Brandon Gibson, and tight end Lance Kendricks rotated as the other pass catchers. Amendola is just a WR5 in standard leagues, but offers WR3 appeal in PPR as the heavy favorite to pace his team in receptions. He could easily catch seven or eight balls at Detroit, particularly if the Rams get down big. ... I'm holding out little hope for Sam Bradford as a QB2 this season in a run-heavy offense without a supporting cast. Individually, Bradford's play has been discouraging as well.

Score Prediction: Lions 37, Rams 13

New England @ Tennessee

I chose Stevan Ridley's picture to lead off this column because I think he'll be the breakout star of Week 1. A bruising power back with better speed than you think, Ridley established himself as the lead dog in New England's backfield with a fumble-free preseason, also rushing 34 times for 152 yards (4.47 YPC) and a score. Shane Vereen (foot) will be inactive in Nashville, leaving Ridley to dominate early-down work against a soft Tennessee defense. The Titans ranked 24th against the run last season and remain light in the front seven without a single defensive line starter over 300 pounds. They'll also be missing starting DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee). I think Ridley can rip this unit for 100 yards and a couple of touchdowns. I'd lock him into my fantasy lineup. ... The Titans' defensive strength is against the pass, but they are breaking in a new nickel back this year, and there may be bumps in the road. Tommie Campbell, who plays right cornerback in all sub-packages, got toasted by Braylon Edwards in the preseason and will contend with Brandon Lloyd for the majority of Sunday's game. Despite a quiet August, Lloyd should start fast in a favorable matchup. I expect Lloyd to have a big season.

The Titans' top cover men are RCB/slot cornerback Alterraun Verner and LCB Jason McCourty. Verner figures to square off with Wes Welker plenty, although he's in his first season covering the slot, replacing Cortland Finnegan. Welker may give Verner a rude welcome inside the numbers. ... Ultra-reliable Boston Globe reporter Greg Bedard went on the record this week to predict Aaron Hernandez will pass Rob Gronkowski as Tom Brady's go-to guy in 2012. Gronk should remain a high-scoring red-zone beast, but Hernandez may catch more balls and gain more yards. The Patriots' passing offense is voluminous and efficient enough that all of these guys can get "theirs." In terms of points scored, New England has been a top-10 NFL team in eight straight seasons. They've finished third and first in the last two, respectively. ... Oh yeah. Start Tom Brady.

The 2012 preseason reminded us of the accuracy issues that caused Jake Locker to be a lightning rod before the 2011 draft. He has an alarming tendency to miss open receivers high, which also happened to be an early-career flaw of Eli Manning's. While ball placement is a red flag on Locker's long-term outlook, it's less concerning in fantasy leagues, where we don't typically get points for completion rate. Locker can drive the ball downfield and rack up valuable rushing yards with his legs. I think he's a definite two-QB league starter in this potential shootout, and someone to consider over back-end QB1s in tougher matchups like Peyton Manning, and perhaps even Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler. Locker has two stud offensive tackles (Michael Roos, David Stewart) to keep his pocket clean, and a playmaking supporting cast even without Kenny Britt for the opener. ... Britt is suspended this week and may be eased into the Week 2 lineup, but I expect him to emerge as an every-week starter no later than Week 5 at Minnesota. The Titans face off with San Diego in Week 2, Detroit in Week 3, and Johnathan Joseph's Texans in Week 4.

Chet Gresham's Target Watch column became a favorite of mine last year, and he led off with a humdinger on Wednesday. Per Chet, Locker's preseason target distribution: Kendall Wright 14, Jared Cook 9, Nate Washington 7, Javon Ringer 4, Craig Stevens 4, Damian Williams 3, Lavelle Hawkins 2, Jamie Harper 1, Chris Johnson 1. ... Johnson's low target count is a reminder that he won't play much in passing situations this season. He's lost the third-down job outright to Ringer due to pathetic pass blocking, which could cost Johnson significant field time when the Titans fall behind. Whereas CJ?K had 28 preseason carries, he didn't have a single catch. Don't be surprised if true matchup guru Bill Belichick attempts to take away Tennessee's running game, daring Locker to beat the Patriots with his erratic arm. ... Wright looks like Locker's go-to receiver and brings to the table more dynamic tools than Washington or slot receiver Williams. The latter two are WR4/5s. Wright is a WR3 option with upside against a New England secondary with much to prove after a miserable 2011 season. ... Cook is a Jermichael Finley-type talent who can really run at 6-foot-5, 248, but I'm in wait-and-see mode on his fantasy value after he let me down last season. Cook needs to raise his snap count by blocking better. He was a part-time tight end last season, playing fewer snaps than blocking specialist Stevens.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 24

Jacksonville @ Minnesota

Jags-Vikes has the second lowest over-under of any Week 1 matchup (39.5), which makes it a reasonable game to avoid when seeking tiebreakers for lineup decisions. Percy Harvin is a locked-and-loaded WR1/2, but no other Vikings pass catchers are surefire fantasy starters. It was clear from the Jaguars' preseason that Justin Blackmon will be the featured player in OC Bob Bratkowski's pass game, but even the impressive rookie isn't more than a WR3. ... Jags defensive coordinator Mel Tucker runs a Tampa 2 system that legitimately shut down vertical passing attacks last season. Jacksonville quietly ranked eighth in the league against the pass. The Vikings can formidably counter Tucker's scheme with a horizontal offense, peppering Harvin with targets in the slot and getting the football to "move" tight end Kyle Rudolph. Christian Ponder probably isn't in line for a big passing day, but Harvin should run circles around Jaguars slot cornerback Aaron Ross and Rudolph is a respectable low-end TE1 fantasy option. The rest of the Vikings should be avoided.

Jaguars top CB Derek Cox will be inactive with a hamstring injury. Cox's absence may improve Minnesota's chances of generating ball movement, but doesn't help any particular Vikings pass catcher because Cox plays outside the numbers. The Vikings' only outside-the-numbers threat is Jerome Simpson, and he's suspended. ... Adrian Peterson (knee) might be active for emergency back duty, but coach Leslie Frazier has vowed to give Peterson only "limited exposure," assuming he sees the field at all. It's hard to imagine starting Peterson in a fantasy league until we know for sure he's at least getting double-digit carries. Look for Toby Gerhart to handle the vast majority of the running back load Sunday. The Jaguars' run defense is above average, but Gerhart should approach 20 touches and get any goal-line opportunities. I like Gerhart as a low-end RB2 or flex. Stud Jaguars SLB Daryl Smith's unavailability due to a groin injury can only help Gerhart's cause.

Indications from the Jaguars' preseason were that "Brat" and Mike Mularkey have gotten Blaine Gabbert to make strides. Gabbert played afraid at Mizzou and as an NFL rookie, crumbling in the face of pressure. Implementing a quick-hitting pass offense that doesn't ask Gabbert to hold onto the ball as blitzers approach, the Jaguars have turned to Blackmon as their go-to guy at Z and slot receiver. Draftniks questioned Blackmon's downfield separation skills coming out of Oklahoma State, but he is a sure-handed monster after the catch. Blackmon is essentially an early-career Anquan Boldin with more speed. And the new offensive design in Jacksonville suits Blackmon's strengths. Blackmon has a tough Opening Day matchup against Vikings RCB Chris Cook and slot CB Antoine Winfield, but there shouldn't be many weeks when he doesn't catch six or more balls. If Gabbert can keep it together, Blackmon could be an absolute PPR stud.

Roddy White was Mularkey's Z receiver in Atlanta, with Michael Jenkins at X. Filling the X role, Laurent Robinson would do well just to mirror Jenkins' career-best line from 2008 (50/777/3). You don't want that on your fantasy team. ... Marcedes Lewis is dead to me as a fantasy player until I see some sustained production. He's stunk in five of his six NFL seasons and was good only in a contract year. ... Mularkey is openly projecting Maurice Jones-Drew as a Week 1 "third-down back." While I suspect MJD will get a few more carries than your run-of-the-mill passing-down specialist, it might not be by much. 10-12 touches against a defense that has ranked top-11 against the run in six straight seasons wouldn't make Jones-Drew very enticing. I'd pretty much write him off as a Week 1 fantasy option. ...Rashad Jennings should receive closer to a full workload, but the fact that he will leave the field in passing situations diminishes his appeal significantly. Jennings may end up running into a brick wall 16-18 times. He's a low-upside flex.

Score Prediction: Vikings 20, Jaguars 17

Buffalo @ NY Jets

The Jets' defense had long had Ryan Fitzpatrick's number until the clubs met late in November of last year. In a hard-fought 28-24 loss, Fitzpatrick sparkled to the tune of 26-for-39 (66.7%), 264 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. The Bills would have won if not for Stevie Johnson's late-game drop of a 40-yard would-be scoring bomb. Like this one, that game was played on the Jets' home turf. While I don't think Fitz will be quite as productive this time around, the Bills' Pistol Spread can be difficult to contain when the quarterback and Johnson find a rhythm. Buffalo floods the field with five receivers constantly, preventing double teams and clearing out running lanes. I was surprised to see Vegas favor the Jets in this game. A low-scoring affair seems likely, but I like the Bills to score more points. ... Look for Fred Jackson to be the offensive focal point as Buffalo upsets Rex Ryan's team. The Jets will likely be without run-plugging NT Sione Pouha (back), and Jackson has clearly retaken his feature back role from C.J. Spiller, if preseason first-team action was any indication. It's easy to forget that F-Jax racked up at least 100 total yards in eight of the Bills' first nine games last season, before succumbing to a fractured fibula. Jackson is healthy now and a top-end RB2.

Spiller hurt his chances of playing a big early-season role with a lost fumble in the third preseason game, and appears to be well behind Jackson in this mythical competition for carries. It's a myth because Jackson is the man. Spiller will need F-Jax to get injured again in order to be a fantasy starter. ... Nicknamed "Revis Beater" for his growing track record of success against the NFL's top corner, Johnson touched up Darrelle Revis for stat lines of 8/75/1 and 3/84/0 last year. Johnson gets open against Revis because Chan Gailey lets him freelance routes and Johnson has some of the NFL's quickest feet. The fact that Johnson is still going against Revis drops him from a WR2 to WR3, but he's certainly start-able. I'm not worried about Johnson's mild groin injury after he produced through it all last season. ... Intense fantasy owners can keep tabs on David Nelson, Donald Jones, Scott Chandler, and T.J. Graham, but all of the Bills' skill guys behind Johnson and F-Jax are role players. Nelson has the best shot at fantasy relevance, and it's still not a good one.

Santonio Holmes has gone 25 consecutive games without 100 yards and has been held to 50 yards or fewer 16 times during that span. It'd be easy to say that Holmes' elite skill level gives him weekly upside, but he hasn't shown it in seemingly forever. He's a WR4/5. ... Shonn Greene's historical success against the Bills can be dismissed now that Buffalo lines up Mario Williams next to interior cloggers Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, forming one of the league's most imposing front fours. Running behind an O-Line that looked worse than ever in preseason action, Greene has a lot to prove to be fantasy viable. I'd balk at starting Greene until he gives me reason to. He never played in the passing game and could lose goal-line work to Tim Tebow. ... Stephen Hill came down with a calf injury in practice this week after playing like a lost rookie all preseason. The second-round pick possesses big-time tools, but is third in line for targets behind Holmes and Dustin Keller and not worth a 12-team league roster spot. ... Keller is dealing with a hamstring injury of his own. He'll play against Buffalo, but the injury may curtail his on-field effectiveness. Avoid. ... I prefer the Bills' defense as a fantasy play over Mark Sanchez, even in two-QB leagues. Sanchez's pass catchers are banged up, and his pass protection is nonexistent.

Score Prediction: Bills 17, Jets 6

Miami @ Houston

The Dolphins played some of the fiercest run defense in football last season and bring back all of their key cogs, including massive NT Paul Soliai and LE Jared Odrick. Their pass defense may struggle mightily, however. GM Jeff Ireland sold off top corner Vontae Davis without a viable in-house replacement (Richard Marshall is a fine nickel, but doesn't qualify) and the Dolphins have just one consistent pass-rush threat (RE Cameron Wake). Opposing quarterbacks should have clean pockets and open receivers when they face Miami this season. Look for Andre Johnson to start fast in Week 1. ... Unfortunately, the remaining elements of Houston's passing attack are severely restricted by the league's run-heaviest offensive mindset. Matt Schaub is a glorified game manager, while Kevin Walter, Lestar Jean, and rookie Keshawn Martin will offer little or no box-score consistency. Rising third-year TE Garrett Graham and fullback/tight end hybrid James Casey, the Texans' version of Aaron Hernandez, will both cut into Owen Daniels' receiving looks.

Keep an eye on Arian Foster's knee after he exited Thursday's practice early with soreness. It's worth recalling that Foster played all of the 2010 season through a torn meniscus and underwent surgery the following February. He's had knee issues before. It seems Foster will be just fine, but check the Rotoworld News Page for updates Friday and Saturday. ... Foster is a matchup-proof fantasy workhorse, but so could be Ben Tate if the starter didn't play. Tate peeled off 135 yards on 27 touches in last year's Week 2 road game against the Dolphins, so there is a track record of individual success in this specific matchup. Other than moving from a 3-4 to 4-3 under new DC Kevin Coyle, the Fins' front seven hasn't changed much from last year. The personnel are basically all the same. If Foster sits out, you just plug Tate into your fantasy lineup, and don't think twice.

Friday Evening Update: Foster failed to practice on Friday and will be a game-time decision Sunday versus Miami. I hope Foster drafters handcuffed him with Tate as they were instructed to. It's possible the Texans will decide they can defeat the starved-for-offense Dolphins without their $43.5 million bellcow back. Foster owners must prepare for their first-round fantasy pick to miss this game. Check Rotoworld on Sunday.

Rarely can we confidently say a team became noticeably less talented in one offseason. We can definitely say it for the Dolphins' passing game. The Legedu Naanee-Davone Bess-Brian Hartline triumvirate is an embarrassment to a passing league, and the right side of the Fins' offensive line threatens to be dominated by opponents on a weekly basis early in the year. The Texans trot out LE J.J. Watt, and pass-rushing menaces Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus as head-to-head foes for shaky rookie RT Jonathan Martin and whomever first-year coach Joe Philbin elects to trot out at right guard. Ryan Tannehill is a long-term keeper, but no Dolphins pass-catching hopeful is worth a fantasy league roster spot, let alone a Week 1 start. ... Miami's inevitable inability to move the ball through the air also bodes poorly for a running game that may skew more toward committee than Reggie Bush drafters hope. 2011 second-round pick Daniel Thomas appeared to be coming around as the preseason wrapped up. The Texans ranked fourth in run defense last season and third against the pass. They return 10-of-11 defensive starters while adding Mercilus to the mix.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Dolphins 3

4:25PM ET Games

Seattle @ Arizona

I know, I know. He's a rookie. He was a third-round pick. He's under 5-foot-11. I am really intrigued by Russell Wilson's fantasy football prospects, not because of a bunch of factors we'd find impossible to prove relevant to the discussion. Wilson is a positive-yards scrambling threat. He spins the football with accuracy and velocity. And he is a natural-born playmaker. I also quietly like his receivers: Braylon Edwards has never struggled to create separation in the vertical passing game, Sidney Rice is healthy, and Doug Baldwin displayed big-play ability and big-time speed in the slot last season. I think Wilson will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback, and I'm starting him in one of my leagues (standard scoring) this week against a Cardinals pass defense that instills no fear aside from CB Patrick Peterson, who struggled at times in coverage as a rookie. ... Rice is a shaky WR3 in his likely matchup with Peterson, but he's right back in the fantasy mix. As a health risk with a rookie quarterback, I might take a wait-and-see approach on his first two games (@ AZ, vs. DAL). If he plays well, I'd trot out Rice the next four straight weeks (vs. GB, @ STL, @ CAR, vs. NE).

Drops and soft play have long been Edwards' biggest drawbacks, but you don't get penalized for either in fantasy football. He's worth a WR5 spot to see what happens. Seattle's offense has exciting potential, and their studly young defense will keep getting them the ball back. Golden Tate will not play Sunday due to a knee injury, so Edwards should be an every-down receiver. ... I think Wilson's first big impact will show up in the running game. Seahawks OL coach Tom Cable's zone-blocking scheme already demonstrated the ability to dominate games in Marshawn Lynch's career year, despite musical chairs all throughout the offensive line. The ZBS will be even more effective with a dual-threat quarterback whose bootleg ability forces front-seven members to stay in containment rather than play aggressively. Outside zone runs and stretch plays to the perimeter are going to be more dangerous than ever in Seattle this season. If Marshawn Lynch's back clears up, I think he's capable of improving on last year's career-best stats. If Robert Turbin starts against the Cardinals, I think you lock him in as an RB2/flex and don't look back.

Friday Evening Update: Lynch was a limited participant in Friday's practice and remains a game-time decision for Week 1. Hopefully Lynch owners were savvy enough to grab Turbin when news of his back spasms broke, because we won't know the starter's availability until about 3PM ET on Sunday. ESPN's John Clayton, who is based in Seattle and reports on the Seahawks best, does expect Lynch to play. If Lynch is active, you start him as an RB1. Check back Sunday afternoon.

The Cardinals' front five cannot pass protect, and it's a reality the coaching staff will simply have to work around. They need to formulate an offensive design that leans heavily on the run game and features Larry Fitzgerald as John Skelton's first read on upwards of 70 percent of pass plays. A formula at all similar to this would render secondary targets Andre Roberts, Early Doucet, and Rob Housler fantasy non-factors, at least until one emerges as a consistent, reliable "No. 2" to Fitz's clear No. 1. I don't think Roberts, Doucet, or Housler is worth a 12-team league roster spot until we see on-field evidence to the contrary. Michael Floyd is being brought along incredibly slowly, playing only in four-receiver packages. Floyd is not on pace for any early-season impact.

While a run-dominated Arizona offense could prop up Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells when they face cupcakes, Seattle's shutdown run defense makes both undesirable Week 1 flex options. The Seahawks ranked fourth in the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed (3.79) last season and return six of their front-seven starters. The Cards plan to use a hot-hand rotation, and both Wells and Williams looked relatively sharp this preseason despite returning from knee injuries. They are timeshare backs in a really difficult matchup. No thanks. ... Arizona understandably struggled mightily to run the ball in its two 2011 matchups with Seattle, so it resorted to targeting Fitzgerald relentlessly. Fitz piled up 26 targets, securing 14 for 213 yards and a touchdown. In the Week 17 meeting, Skelton was the quarterback and connected with Fitzgerald nine times for 149 yards. Fitzgerald quietly averaged 94.1 yards a game when Skelton played more snaps than Kevin Kolb in 2011. Skelton has shaky accuracy and no mobility, but excels at making one read and powering throws to his best receiver.

Friday Evening Update: Wells was added to the injury report Friday with a hamstring ailment, ostensibly suffered on the practice field. While Wells vows to play Sunday, this is more reason to write him off as a Week 1 fantasy option. He's got a ton of factors working against him, and now Beanie may not be 100 percent.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 10

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Little-known stat on Aaron Rodgers: He did not face a single top-ten defense during his MVP 2011 season. When Rodgers finally played a top-11 unit in Week 15, he completed 17-of-35 throws for 235 yards and one touchdown as Green Bay fell to Kansas City 19-14. Rodgers is too good to bet against, but Week 1 fantasy expectations should probably be conservative. The 49ers field the most physical defense in the league. They lack weaknesses on Vic Fangio's side of the ball. ... Cedric Benson showed fresh legs in preseason, but he'll be running into a brick wall against the Niners. San Francisco is good enough up front that it can drop five or six guys into coverage and still shut down a run game. If you're starting Benson, you're gambling on a goal-line score. He won't have much open-field success. ... As good as Benson looked, I still think Alex Green will be the Packers back to own by midseason. He's just such a better fit for what Green Bay does on offense.

Packers receivers move around the formation so much that it's difficult to say which corners Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, and Donald Driver will face the most in Week 1. I think you simply start Nelson, Jennings, and Jermichael Finley with confidence. Nelson and Jennings are too good not to, and Finley possesses talent to undress a defense if his head is on straight. ... Randall Cobb's time is coming, but he's a WR5 in fantasy leagues at the moment. Cobb is expected to open the season competing for Green Bay's No. 4 receiver job with Driver while returning kickoffs.

Rotoworld was adamant about avoiding Frank Gore in 2012 fantasy drafts, in large part because his pass-game role is evaporating and he'll eventually lose goal-line work to 260-pound hammer back Brandon Jacobs. If you still drafted Gore, now is the time to start him. Jacobs (knee) will miss Week 1, and Gore is squaring off with a Green Bay defense that went soft in 2011 and is now trying to work around an ankle injury to NT B.J. Raji. Gore's schedule is favorable in Weeks 1 (at Lambeau) and 2 (versus Lions), then gets awfully tough quickly. It wouldn't be a bad idea to ride him the first two games, then sell Gore high if he starts fast. Kendall Hunter is capable of emerging as the best back in San Francisco by midyear. ... Coach Jim Harbaugh has made it clear that the 49ers do not intend to pass more in 2012, despite offseason additions of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and A.J. Jenkins. The 49ers want to pass more efficiently. Jenkins figures to be an early-season game-day scratch after a quiet August, while Moss and Manningham will rotate in a run-based offense. Green Bay's pass defense is hardly a shutdown unit, but Niners receivers beyond Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree are Week 1 bench material.

Whereas Manningham and Moss' fantasy outlooks are adversely affected by usage, Crabtree's is impacted by a difficult matchup. As a Z receiver in base packages and slot receiver on passing downs, Crabtree will take on LCB Tramon Williams and SS/slot CB Charles Woodson for a heavy majority of Sunday's snaps. Crabtree runs crisp slant routes and can get in front of the Packers' top DBs for 5-6 catches and 60-70 yards, but it's not going to be easy. He's a low-end WR3. ... Almost by process of elimination, I like Davis to pace San Francisco in Week 1 receiving, and perhaps explode for a monster game. Davis admitted this offseason that he didn't understand Harbaugh's offense for much of last season. Davis finally caught on in December, and promptly reeled off 28 catches for 536 yards and five touchdowns in the final five games. Davis will push Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski for No. 1 fantasy tight end if he keeps that pace in 2012.

Score Prediction: Packers 17, 49ers 14

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

I stated in the St. Louis-Detroit rundown that Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback play in the league this week. Cam Newton might have something to say about that. Newton chewed up the Bucs and spit them out last year, in two games accounting for a whopping eight touchdowns (four pass, four rush) and 9.87 yards-per-attempt average. Aside from two promising draft picks and a coaching staff change, I don't see many reasons to believe the Bucs' defense will be able to stop Cam in 2012. Greg Schiano has already admitted they're just hoping to contain him. ... The Bucs under Raheem Morris used Aqib Talib to shadow No. 1 receivers, and he often held his own against Steve Smith. But Tampa Bay paid new RCB Eric Wright enough money (five years, $38 million) this offseason that Schiano's staff may cease the approach. Smith has always run the majority of his perimeter pass patterns against right cornerbacks, and that's Wright's side of the field. Smith could single-handedly take this game over if he matches up with burnable Wright.

Brandon LaFell offers breakout appeal as a newly-anointed every-down receiver in an explosive, vertical passing attack. I thought he looked like a fairly average talent during my offseason game study, though, and am not quite bullish on the third-year wideout. In this particular matchup, LaFell still makes for an adequate WR3. ... Coach Ron Rivera talked up Greg Olsen as being on par with the Grahams and Gronkowskis of the NFL during one training-camp interview. Olsen has never and will never be as red-zone dominant as Gronk, and doesn't create nearly as many mismatch issues as Graham. I like Olsen as a TE2 with mid-range to low-end TE1 upside, but doubt he'll push for elite fantasy production. Look for Olsen to match up often with rookies Mark Barron and Lavonte David in this game. ... We'll know more about Jonathan Stewart's ankle after Friday's practice, but as of this writing he appears unlikely to play. The Bucs have ranked 28th or worse against the run three straight years, and appear poised to again field one of the NFL's most porous defenses up front. DeAngelo Williams will be a shoo-in top-15 running back option if Stewart sits out this game.

Friday Evening Update: Stewart missed a third straight practice Friday. Although he's plenty versed in the offense, players that get in zero practice time rarely play on game day. Look for Mike Tolbert to step in as a powerful change-of-pace option while Williams assumes true feature back duties. The matchup is right and Carolina should score enough points that Williams is now a borderline RB1. Expect no fewer than 17 touches.

Coming off a season in which he took major steps backward, Josh Freeman did nothing to allay fears about his going-forward effectiveness with a thoroughly inefficient August. He completed under 53 percent of his preseason throws and averaged a pathetic 4.8 yards per pass attempt, showing chemistry only with Vincent Jackson in an otherwise uninspiring pass-catching corps. Freeman's inaccuracy was a major 2011 issue, and it looked worse this summer. Tampa beat writers expect Freeman to start slow. It's a safe bet as Schiano leans on a run-first approach. ... The Bucs' offense figures to feature Jackson and Doug Martin while Mike Williams, Dallas Clark, and LeGarrette Blount play complementary, support-type roles. Martin earned the every-down back job by running circles around Blount in camp practices and preseason games. He's a strong RB2 against Carolina's annually weak run defense. Defenses will probably scheme to take away V-Jax this year, but he should be open plenty against a defense similarly vulnerable to the pass.

Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Bucs 17

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh @ Denver

I don't expect Rashard Mendenhall (knee) to play despite Mike Tomlin's early-week optimism, but I wouldn't invest in Pittsburgh's backfield Sunday night regardless. Isaac Redman is a poor man's Tim Hightower now trying to play through groin, ankle, and hip injuries. Passing-down work will be divvied up amongst Redman, Baron Batch, and rookie scatback Chris Rainey. Early downs figure to be shared by Redman and Jonathan Dwyer. Fantasy owners love to complain about Redskins running backs, but this backfield is arguably more muddled and will become more so once Mendenhall returns. Although he's merely a low-end flex option, my pick would be Dwyer if you're desperate to start a Steelers back in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if Redman owners end up dropping him in a week or two. ... Heath Miller started three preseason games in Todd Haley's new offense and was targeted twice, securing both for 15 yards. Haley has overseen five offenses in his coaching career, and the best line produced by a tight end during that span was Tony Moeaki's 47/556/3 in 2010. Moeaki finished as the No. 20 fantasy tight end. I'm not optimistic about Miller this season.

If the Broncos defend Mike Wallace as they did in January's playoffs, he will match up early and often with shutdown CB Champ Bailey. Wallace found the end zone in that game on a fluky one-yard rushing score, but was limited to three catches for 26 yards on a whopping ten targets. If you want to wait a week to start Wallace after his month-long holdout, now is the time. ... Antonio Brown outproduced Wallace down last season's stretch because he saw friendlier coverage looks, got open more regularly due to superior versatility, and is plenty talented in his own right. Having already mastered Haley's system -- 11 preseason grabs for 204 yards and three TDs -- Brown is the heavy favorite to lead Pittsburgh in receiving Sunday night. I think he's a borderline WR1. ... Ben Roethlisberger was picked as a QB2 in most fantasy drafts and is best viewed in that same light for Week 1. I think he offers more upside than meets the eye over the course of the season, though, particularly if Haley opens things up. Big Ben can be as productive as the playcalling lets him be. ... Emmanuel Sanders would require a Wallace or Brown injury to become a consistent fantasy producer, but he's another factor working in Roethlisberger's fantasy favor. Sanders, in fact, led the Steelers with 81 yards on six catches in the aforementioned playoff game at Denver.

I should have gotten this out of the way before: I think the Steelers will go to Mile High and whip the Broncos in prime time. Pittsburgh will control this game offensively and defensively. Denver lacks up-front protection to repel LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, and Brett Keisel's rush, and nobody runs on a Dick LeBeau defense. A low-scoring projection for Denver's offense can be used effectively as a tiebreaker for fantasy football lineup decisions. ... Willis McGahee has faced the Steelers' 3-4 four times over the past two seasons and managed a pathetic 111 yards with one touchdown on 44 carries (2.52 YPC). I will like McGahee when he plays the San Diego and Oaklands of the AFC West. I'm not starting him against a defense that will eliminate him.

I'm not starting Peyton Manning, either. His final ADP was QB9, suggesting most fantasy owners view him as a back-end QB1. Back-end QB1s are generally bench material versus elite defenses, and that's precisely what Manning will face on Sunday night. I want to see a 36-year-old coming off four neck surgeries play well in a tough matchup before I declare him start-worthy in tough matchups. ... Eric Decker is Denver's top fantasy bet after showing the best preseason chemistry with Manning among Broncos pass catchers. ... Manning attempted 42 passes in August. His target distribution: Decker 7, Lance Ball 7, Demaryius Thomas 7, Brandon Stokley 7, Jacob Tamme 7, Joel Dreessen 6, McGahee 1. ... Ball's heavy first-team involvement is a reminder that he's well out in front of rookie Ronnie Hillman in the battle for snaps behind McGahee. Hillman is also behind Knowshon Moreno. ... I'm a huge believer in Thomas' big-play ability. He is a beast after the catch. I don't think he'll start as fast as Decker, but I'd play Thomas confidently as a WR2/3. ... Stokley and Dreessen's August targets suggest Tamme may have to share the right to be Manning's third passing-game option, behind Thomas and Decker. I wouldn't feel good about Tamme as a TE1 beyond perhaps PPR leagues.

Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Broncos 13

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

If preseason games were any indication -- and in-the-know Baltimore people say they were -- the Ravens are turning to the no-huddle as their base offense. Joe Flacco was terrific in the up-tempo attack this August, completing 71.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and one pick. "Defenses have gotten so complicated," Flacco told SI.com's Peter King. "When you slow it down and get into a huddle before every play, you're playing into their hands, allowing them to dictate the tempo of the game. This way, we take control of the game." Flacco loves the revised offense, and he is capable of starting fast in a favorable Monday night matchup. Cincinnati's defense looks brutal in the back end, with first-rounder Dre Kirkpatrick out after two knee injuries and coverage liability Taylor Mays starting at strong safety. Washed-up veterans Nate Clements and Terence Newman are being counted on for major roles. The Bengals' best defensive back is Leon Hall, and he is coming off a ruptured Achilles'. Expect the Ravens to have lots of passing success in Week 1.

Although the new offense could eventually breathe life into TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson, neither is start-able in Week 1 after Pitta missed most of camp with a broken hand, and Dickson a subluxed shoulder. ... Look Torrey Smith's way for Monday night passing-game points. He showed greatly improved intermediate route-running chops in August, creating separation at every level of the defense and along the sideline. In less than three preseason quarters, Smith dressed down the Falcons and Jaguars' first-team defenses for 11 catches and 146 yards. Hall sticks to one side of the field, and the Bengals' other corners lack foot speed to run with Baltimore's emerging No. 1 receiver. ... Anquan Boldin's third straight late-season fade may begin earlier this year going on age 32, but he still has fresh legs in late summer and early fall and is a solid bet for a red-zone touchdown on Monday night. ... Ray Rice has faced the Bengals eight times in his career. He's rung up 681 yards on 139 carries (4.90 YPC) and seven touchdowns while averaging nearly 120 all-purpose yards per game. There's every reason to think Rice is set up for another big effort.

I saw some offseason hype on the 2012 Bengals after last year's team played above its head, at least for the first few games. Let's hit that with a fire extinguisher. Cincinnati started 6-2 against the league's softest first-half schedule before playing like the bad team everyone expected in the final eight weeks. In the last nine, Andy Dalton managed just seven touchdowns and turned the ball over a dozen times, as his talent limitations were exposed facing halfway decent defenses. The Bengals are going to be worse on offense this year. They lost two starting linemen (LG Travelle Wharton, C Kyle Cook) to injured reserve during the preseason, and first-round RG Kevin Zeitler was up and down. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a downgrade from Cedric Benson, lacking any hint of elusiveness or big-play ability. They're also downgrading at No. 2 receiver, going from Jerome Simpson to a rotation of Brandon Tate and Armon Binns. Rookie Mohamed Sanu is buried on the depth chart.

Although Baltimore's defense can't possibly be as good minus difference-making RE/OLB Terrell Suggs (Achilles'), this unit is still capable of shutting down running games and making life difficult against the pass. The only Bengals skill-position player worth a Week 1 fantasy start is A.J. Green, who figures to be a target monster because Cincinnati basically has no one else. Jermaine Gresham missed much of camp with a knee injury, and the issues up front can be easily exposed by Haloti Ngata, Terrence Cody, Arthur Jones, Pernell McPhee, and Paul Kruger. I like the Ravens to manhandle the Bengals in this game. I'm not sure Cincinnati can even make it close.

Score Prediction: Ravens 21, Bengals 10

San Diego @ Oakland

Philip Rivers has an impressive statistical track record over six seasons as an NFL starter, but I wondered aloud this offseason whether we might have seen the best of him, and I continue to worry that may be the case. The indefinite absence of LT Jared Gaither is a major concern, and clearly not one the Chargers prepared for seeing as their fallback plan is undrafted rookie Mike Harris. Norv Turner's offense is vertical in nature, requiring some semblance of sustained pass protection to execute. Recall that Gaither started the final five games of last season after being claimed off waivers in late November. Rivers' stats with Gaither on his blindside: 110-of-163 (67.5 percent) for 1,413 yards (8.67 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and three picks. Rivers' stats pre-Gaither: 256-of-419 (61.1 percent) for 3,211 yards (7.66 YPA), 16:17 TD-to-INT ratio. I'm very concerned about this passing offense. ... Until defenses decide to begin eliminating him with bracket coverage, Antonio Gates should be the one constant in Rivers' 2012 pass-catching corps. Gates has a touchdown in three of his past four meetings with the Raiders. In Week 17 last year, Gates ripped Oakland for 106 yards and a score on five catches. I expect a big game on Monday night.

Robert Meachem showed little chemistry with Rivers in camp and preseason games, finishing August with one catch for seven yards. While Oakland won't field an intimidating pass defense this year, I want to see Meachem put something acceptable in a box score before starting him. ... Malcom Floyd is the stronger bet Monday night if you're dying to start a Chargers wideout. Floyd should spend most of this game in burnable RCB Shawntae Spencer's coverage, and has no "rapport" concerns with his quarterback. ... Ronnie Brown is expected to be San Diego's lead back until Ryan Mathews returns from his fractured collarbone, which figures to happen in Week 2 or 3. San Diego played its starters in the preseason finale, so I went back and watched that game to take notes for this column. The Chargers' first-team offense played 15 snaps, and Brown was in on 14 of them. Jackie Battle -- not Curtis Brinkley -- looked like the No. 2. Brown showed very little as a rusher and receiver, but he should be on the field quite a bit against Oakland and is a legit threat for 20 touches. He's worth flex consideration. ... Eddie Royal annually garners offseason buzz from media types, but he hasn't been a fantasy asset in four seasons. Now the No. 4 option at best in a sputtering passing offense, it's hard to imagine Royal recapturing rookie-year form.

One aspect of Oakland's new offense that Darren McFadden owners will quickly come to enjoy is playcaller Greg Knapp's passion for running the football relentlessly. Among this generation's run-heaviest minds, Knapp's offenses have finished in the league's top five in rushing attempts seven times in his nine years as a coordinator. He worked on Houston's staff last season, and they tied for the NFL lead in carries. San Diego's front seven has improved, but it may not matter when perhaps the league's most gifted runner south of Minnesota is handling the rock 30 times a game. McFadden is the best fantasy bet in both Monday night matchups. ... Aside from Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland's pass game is best left avoided in Week 1. Carson Palmer struggled all preseason in Knapp's new offense. Rod Streater's outlook is dependent on Denarius Moore's (hamstring) availability, and Moore looks like a true game-time decision. Jacoby Ford (foot) almost certainly won't play. Heyward-Bey is the only intriguing receiver gamble. He racked up 130 yards and a touchdown on nine catches against a similar-looking Chargers secondary in Week 17 last year.

Friday Evening Update: Moore put on a show during Friday's practice and now appears set to play Monday night, barring a setback over the next two days. I like this news for the Week 1 outlook of Oakland's offense, as well as my final-score prediction. I'd still play it cautiously with Moore and put him on a "prove-it" week. If he has a big night, great. We'll know to start him next week.

Score Prediction: Raiders 23, Chargers 20