Cleveland @ Cincinnati
For a guy widely regarded as positively as Andy Dalton, he sure hasn't played well in awhile. Dalton's stats in his last ten games: 191-of-338 (56.5 percent) for 2,180 yards (6.45 YPA), eight touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He has three more turnovers on fumbles lost. The overrated Bengals are 3-7 during that span with wins over the Rams, Browns, and Cardinals. Perhaps a Week 2 date with Joe Haden-less Cleveland will spark Dalton temporarily, but he's completely off the fantasy radar. ... If there was one shining light in last Monday night's 44-13 blowout loss to Baltimore, it was the Cincinnati offensive line's performance. The front five not only protected Dalton far better than his four sacks taken suggest, it truly did win its down-to-down battle in the trenches. Capitalizing on consistent push up front, BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaged 5.06 yards per carry in Week 1 -- a personal high for him in Green-Ellis' last 22 games. The Browns have ongoing defensive front-seven problems and surrendered 150 rushing yards on 30 Week 1 carries against the Eagles. The Cleveland offense is also incapable of ball movement at this point, so look for the Bengals to be playing with a lead. Start Green-Ellis in your fantasy league, then sell him high before Week 3.
A little background on Bengals slot man Andrew Hawkins, who caught eight balls for 86 yards at Baltimore: He was a contestant on Michael Irvin's 2009 reality show Fourth & Long, losing out to Jesse Holley. Hawkins stands 5-foot-7, 180 and ran 4.34 with a 38" vertical at the Toledo Rockets' 2008 Pro Day. He had a six-touch, 60-yard game against the Steelers last November. Hawkins made 2010 third-round pick Jordan Shipley expendable in training camp. I'm not sure Hawkins will produce like he did against the Ravens every week, but he's getting open more than Armon Binns and Brandon Tate, and that I would not expect to change. With Jermaine Gresham struggling as much as ever, there is some potential for Hawkins to emerge as Dalton's No. 2 target. In an obviously dumbed-down version, perhaps Hawkins can be the Welker to A.J. Green's Moss. I'd grab him in PPR leagues. ... Green was already an every-week WR1, and now Haden is on suspension. Who's going to stop him? Green is a top-five receiver play in Week 2.
Cleveland's offense is a fantasy owner's worst dream from the quarterback to the would-be pass catchers, to the offensive line. Even running back Trent Richardson showed little acceleration and cutting ability against the Eagles, averaging 2.05 yards per carry on 19 totes. I thought his usage was promising and expect Richardson to improve each week he's further removed from two knee scopes, but for now he's a dicey flex. I want to see Richardson perform better before betting he'll overcome the dreadful situation around him. Despite Richardson's Week 1 struggles, defenses will continue to set out to eliminate Cleveland's run game, daring over-matched Brandon Weeden to beat them. ... I recommended in this space to wholly avoid the Browns' passing game in Week 1, and it paid dividends if you did. Mohamed Massaquoi led the pass-catching corps with 41 yards. Greg Little was targeted four times and caught none. What a nightmare. Start the Bengals' fantasy defense.
Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Browns 7
Kansas City @ Buffalo
The matchup gets easier going from the Jets' defense to the Chiefs', but it'd be nice to actually see Ryan Fitzpatrick play well in a football game before considering using him even in a two-QB league. He gave Brandon Weeden a strong run for NFL's worst quarterback last week, and over his last ten games Fitzpatrick is 216-of-372 (58.1%) for 2,288 yards (6.15 YPA), and a 13:19 TD-to-INT ratio. The Bills have one win and nine losses. ... While Darrelle Revis got the better of Stevie Johnson in their matchup this time around, Johnson's groin injury did not appear to be a Week 1 concern as he played 60-of-63 snaps and caught four balls for 55 yards with a touchdown. A WR2, Johnson should be started with confidence against a Chiefs pass defense that Matt Ryan opened up for 299 yards and three touchdown throws in the opener. ... David Nelson tore his ACL against the Jets and will be replaced primarily by Donald Jones in the slot, with rookie T.J. Graham playing outside. From a fantasy perspective, though, don't be surprised if C.J. Spiller benefits most in box scores going forward. Spiller can play the slot, too.
Speaking of Spiller, no player in the league experienced a greater Week 1 leap in fantasy value than the Bills' versatile new workhorse runner. Multiple reports indicate Fred Jackson will miss at least four weeks with a torn LCL, catapulting Spiller from shaky flex play to RB1. Not only did Spiller almost single-handedly vault Buffalo back into last week's game, he's starting to piece together an impressive resume as a bellcow back. In Spiller's last six games, he's gained 560 yards on 81 carries (6.91 YPC) and caught 23 passes for 197 more yards. He's also scored six all-purpose touchdowns while holding up on 18 touches a game. And he's going to get the ball even more than that now. He needs to be in your lineup every week. ... Keep an eye on TE Scott Chandler. He's oft-used in the red zone -- as we recall from last year -- and Chandler played 92 percent of Buffalo's Week 1 offensive snaps, far more than his 2011 snap rates. He also plays extensively as a slot receiver. Chandler could be another beneficiary of Nelson's ACL injury.
I re-watched Bills-Jets on Wednesday, and if I'm a Bills fan I'm probably already a little concerned about Dave Wannstedt. Fandom or no, I'm green-lighting Buffalo's defense for fantasy matchup purposes. Mark Sanchez had a crystal-clean pocket as Jets receivers ran wide open through the back end. The Bills gave up eight pass plays of 15-plus yards against a Jets offense that's been an NFL laughingstock. Rookie cornerbacks not named Morris Claiborne tend to struggle out of the chute -- often mightily -- and that looks like it'll be the case with Stephon Gilmore. Even coach Chan Gailey admitted post-game that Gilmore played "a little soft." Rookie Stephen Hill was the first to capitalize. It's scary to think what Dwayne Bowe might do to him. ... Dexter McCluster can be a useful slot guy in new Chiefs OC Brian Daboll's offense, but I'd hesitate to consider him a fantasy starter beyond PPR settings. McCluster finished Week 1 with a team-high 10 targets, securing six for 82 yards. He is still sitting on three non-return touchdowns in 28 career games. It's difficult to foresee consistency from McCluster as a situational slot receiver in a running offense.
Jon Baldwin's offseason "buzz" has been exposed as offseason "puffery." He was the Chiefs' No. 4 receiver in Week 1 and was not targeted. ... Steve Breaston looks to be behind McCluster, Bowe, and Tony Moeaki in K.C.'s target pecking order. Drop Breaston if you haven't already. ... Despite a strong first half of the Chiefs' Week 1 game, Matt Cassel remains buried on the fantasy QB2 list. He came back down to Earth in the final two quarters, completing just 11 of his final 21 throws for 135 yards and two interceptions. ... Third-string back Shaun Draughn finished Week 1 with eight touches and a four-yard rushing score, but virtually all of his work came in garbage time with the Chiefs down 40-17. ... Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis remain the only fantasy-viable backs in Kansas City. Charles was not involved in the Week 1 pass game (0 targets), but rushed for 87 yards on 16 carries (5.44 YPC) and played more snaps than Hillis. Hillis is still the favorite for passing-game duties. ... I'll keep a running tally here of Chiefs red-zone involvement between Charles and Hillis. In Week 1, Charles got two red-zone carries. Hillis got one. I think you lock in Charles as an RB1/2 against Buffalo's foundering defense. Hillis remains a viable flex option.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 17
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Joe Flacco put a whipping on Cincinnati's normally stout defense last Monday, operating without a huddle on 21-of-58 snaps. Flacco dominated in the fast-paced, passer-friendly attack, sending a 52-yard strike to Torrey Smith on the first play from scrimmage and quietly putting together his sixth multiple-touchdown effort in Flacco's last seven games. The revised offense bodes well for Flacco's long-range outlook, but may meet its match against Philly's relentless 9-Technique pass rush. The no-huddle sacrifices blockers to get more catchers on the field, and often telegraphs intentions with a pass-first structure. Let's see Baltimore's offense fare well against a formidable foe before declaring Flacco matchup-proof. He does have an attractive one soon on the docket, as the Ravens host the Patriots in Week 3. We'll know to start Flacco if he stays hot this week at The Linc. ... Dennis Pitta recorded a career-high 73 yards and a score on five Week 1 receptions and looks to be a big part of Baltimore's new offensive design. Pitta started over Ed Dickson and played more snaps, lining up primarily as a slot tight end and running down the seam. I wouldn't trust Pitta as a fantasy starter yet, but he can get there if this usage holds up. Including January's two playoff contests, Pitta has at least 40 yards and a touchdown in three of his past four games.
Smith teased with a monster preseason and the long bomb to open last week's win, but he took a backseat thereafter as Pitta, Anquan Boldin, and Ray Rice were Flacco's primary receivers over the middle and inside the numbers. Smith was targeted twice the rest of the way. Philadelphia defends the perimeter better than the middle of the field with edge pressure to support talented outside CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. It might be a good week to sit Smith. ... Eagles rookie nickel CB Brandon Boykin was one of my favorite draft picks in April. He was a stud cover man and special teams playmaker at Georgia. Slightly built (5'9/182), though, Boykin may struggle with Boldin's physicality in the slot. Showing fresh legs in the opener, I like Boldin to lead Baltimore in receiving this week. ... Rice only received 13 touches in the no-huddle's debut, but racked up 93 total yards and two touchdowns. He'll score more if the Ravens generate increased ball movement in the new-look offense. Rice remains locked in as a top-five RB1 play.
LeSean McCoy's matchup appears difficult on paper, but the Terrell Suggs-less Ravens weren't so imposing Monday against Cincinnati. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Peerman touched up Baltimore for 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (5.38 YPC), and McCoy is far more skilled than both. McCoy also has a history of success against elite run defenses. In six 2011 matchups with top-ten rush units, McCoy scored eight touchdowns and averaged a robust 4.49 yards per touch. Start McCoy with confidence. ... Michael Vick threw four interceptions in the Eagles' nail-biting Week 1 win over the Browns, but shook off the early rust after an essentially idle preseason to lead Philadelphia to victory on a game-winning touchdown pass to backup TE Clay Harbor. Baltimore's pass rush was nonexistent for long stretches against the Bengals, giving Andy Dalton ample time to throw. Dalton couldn't capitalize, but Vick can. The matchup is quite a bit less intimidating than "versus Baltimore" normally indicates. I still think Vick is more of a mid-range to low-end QB1 this week with Jeremy Maclin (hip) and DeSean Jackson (hamstring) both banged up.
Brent Celek is worth a look this week for fantasy leaguers desperate at tight end. Celek was targeted eight times in the opener, catching four for 65 yards. While the Eagles aren't going to be able to fire off nearly 100 snaps every game as they did against the Browns, Celek would stand to benefit in the passing attack were Maclin or Jackson either gimpy or inactive. And Celek shouldn't have to block so much against a decreasingly effective Ravens pass rush. ... Maclin owners need to track his progress leading all the way up until game time. His balky hip is cause for concern. After going down in the first half against Cleveland, Maclin managed one catch for 11 yards in the final two quarters. ... Jackson plays flanker in the Eagles' offense, the position most commonly covered by Ravens top CB Lardarius Webb. While Jackson moves around the formation enough that he won't draw Webb on every single snap -- Webb typically sticks to one side -- D-Jax does have a tough on-paper matchup. I'd still start him if Maclin is declared inactive Sunday. Both Maclin and Jackson did return to practice on Friday morning, suggesting they’ll play against Baltimore.
Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Ravens 17
New Orleans @ Carolina
Two defenses' Opening Day efforts were particularly embarrassing. Buffalo was one. The Saints were the other. I discussed in Week 1 Matchups how New Orleans' defensive personnel poorly fits new DC Steve Spagnuolo's scheme. That certainly seemed the case against Washington, as the five hits on Robert Griffin III were largely innocuous and the rookie operated in a mostly-clean pocket. (For RG3's part, he also played with poise in the few instances he felt duress.) Saints top CB Jabari Greer is tentatively due back this week after a lengthy sports hernia absence, but doesn't figure to be 100 percent. Rookie nickel back Corey White and RCB Patrick Robinson were picked on frequently by the Redskins' air raid. After a slow opener in which they were dominated in time of possession (nearly 20:40) by the Bucs, I think the Panthers will bounce back big against a legitimately bad Saints defense, with Cam Newton leading the charge. ... I also think Jonathan Stewart (ankle) was severely missed in the opener. Though he isn't employed as a workhorse, it's important to recall that Stewart led Carolina's 2011 backfield in snaps by a healthy margin and adds a dynamic all-purpose threat, often affecting games even when he's not handling the rock. Stewart and Williams are low-end flex options, but the former's return should spark this offense.
I went back and watched Panthers-Bucs on Tuesday to prep for this column. The Tampa defense did a terrific job of snuffing out read-option plays and basically eliminating the Panthers' vaunted run game. (Carolina led the NFL in per-carry average last year.) While the game eventually got away from the Panthers because they so rarely had the ball, it was evident that OC Rob Chudzinski has big plans for Greg Olsen, possibly to be Carolina's No. 2 receiver. Olsen lined up in the slot with regularity and also ran pass routes from his in-line tight end position. He played 96 percent of the snaps. Had the Panthers held the ball for longer than 22 minutes -- and Olsen not dropped an early catchable pass -- I think we'd be talking about him a lot more coming off a 90- or 100-yard game. Because of where he plays, Olsen will square off Sunday with coverage-liability linebackers Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne. Olsen can have a big day against this defense. ... Though I'm not enamored with his physical skills, Brandon LaFell played 52-of-52 downs in Week 1 and that's promising for his future fantasy outlook. Because this game projects as high scoring, you could do worse than LaFell as a WR3. ... Steve Smith turned 33 in May and he's still playing on springs. He was the best player on the football field in Week 1 and is an every-week WR1/2.
You'll start noticing a trend with Saints games. Just like last week, the Vegas experts project the New Orleans game to be the highest scoring of Sunday's slate (over-under of 51). As noted in this space before, you want to start fantasy players in these kinds of games. The Saints' season didn't get off to an ideal start in a home loss to Washington, but these guys fill up the box score even when they lose and essentially force their opponent to do the same. Jimmy Graham, Drew Brees, Marques Colston (despite a relatively slow game one), and Darren Sproles are money in the bank. Start them every week. With that out of the way, onto the other guys. ... Lance Moore opened with 120 yards and a touchdown on six catches against the Skins, but I think the most fantasy-relevant stat was Moore's 75-percent snap rate. Moore has not always been a 75-percent player; he didn't have a single game of over 42 snaps in 2011 and played 56 last week. Perhaps it was due to a comeback-oriented offense, but it's something to keep an eye on. For this week, Moore's role also may be positively impacted by Devery Henderson's (concussion) unavailability.
Maybe I'm delusional on Mark Ingram. I think my reasons for liking him are logical. He's a gifted player, a talented power back with better versatility than his role in New Orleans suggests. He's the go-to red-zone back in perhaps the NFL's most productive offense. Ingram should be scoring touchdowns. But he played only nine snaps in Week 1 because the Saints fell behind early, and at this point he's killing your fantasy week when he's not hammering in a goal-line score. Is Ingram just a younger, fresher version of 2011 LeGarrette Blount and 2012 Michael Turner? Perhaps. I'm sitting Ingram this week in a mouth-watering matchup. I wonder if I'll regret it. ... Pierre Thomas played 18 snaps against the Skins and got the ball five times. Again, Thomas is a good NFL player. He's terrific in the screen game and soaks up blocked yards. But he's better in real life than fantasy. Thomas is going to need either Sproles or Ingram to get injured to approach viable flex value.
Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Saints 27
1:00PM ET Games
Tampa Bay @ NY Giants
Fantasy owners expressed worry about Hakeem Nicks following a four-catch, 38-yard opener in what had the look of a receiver-friendly battle with rookie CB Morris Claiborne. Not the case. On Tuesday night, I charted all 35 Giants passing plays using All-22 tape. While Nicks did run some seemingly lackadaisical routes, Claiborne's sticky man coverage turned Nicks into almost a complete non-factor. Week 2's matchup is more favorable against Bucs RCB Eric Wright, who surrendered most of Steve Smith's 106 yards on seven Week 1 catches. But the foot remains a situation to monitor. ... Victor Cruz didn't have a sterling opener (three drops, 58 yards) and has quietly played tentatively over the middle since January's playoffs, ducking hits and reacting to footsteps. I still don't think there's any real reason for fantasy concern. Cruz paced the Giants with 11 targets against Dallas and should run circles around 37-year-old safety/slot corner Ronde Barber in passing situations. LCB Aqib Talib will be a tougher test outside, but Cruz plays inside enough to experience plenty of favorable matchups over the course of the game. He is a WR2.
Friday Update: Nicks was withheld from Friday's practice after experiencing continued pain in his foot. While the Giants expect him to play, this problem is becoming increasingly worrisome and may help explain last Wednesday night's inability to separate from Claiborne. The ten-day layoff clearly didn't fix Nicks' foot woes. Fantasy owners need to keep a close eye on this situation leading up to Sunday's kickoff.
I never took Martellus Bennett seriously as a preseason fantasy darling, but found it promising that he lined up in the slot some against Dallas and played all but two of the Giants' offensive snaps. He was clearly New York's No. 3 pass option behind Nicks and Cruz. I don't think Bennett moves as well as some suggest, but he can score in the red zone and will never come off the field between the 20s. He's worth a look as a back-end TE1 and solid starter during forthcoming bye weeks. ... Despite Cam Newton's pedestrian Week 1 stats, I'm not the least bit afraid of Tampa's pass defense. They don't get much pressure and can be exposed in the secondary. Eli Manning isn't an elite fantasy passer, but he won't particularly hurt you as a starter. ... Ahmad Bradshaw was the least impressive of the Giants' offensive weaponry on Opening Day, appearing to have lost a step or two and managing 2.81 yards per carry aside from one well-blocked 33-yard burst. Bradshaw is a viable RB2 against the Bucs, but the Giants will need to turn to first-round pick David Wilson eventually. Despite a costly Week 1 fumble, Wilson should be owned in all leagues.
On LeGarrette Blount's first Week 1 snap at 11:23 in the second quarter, he dove at Panthers rookie DE Frank Alexander's ankles on a blitz pickup attempt, and Alexander deflected Josh Freeman's pass into the air, where it easily could have been picked off. Blount closed out the series but wasn't heard from thereafter, finishing with 10 yards on four touches. He played six snaps and can be dropped in fantasy leagues. ... Doug Martin was the Bucs' most effective skill-position player versus Carolina, racking up 123 yards on 28 touches in an expectedly run-heavy game plan. Martin played 52-of-67 downs (78 percent) and is Tampa's every-down back. He'll square off Sunday with a Giants defense that served up 131 yards on 20 carries (6.55 YPC) to DeMarco Murray last Wednesday. With fast feet, top-notch receiving skills, and an offense designed for him to succeed as the featured player, Martin is locked in as an every-week fantasy starter.
The Bucs pulled off the Week 1 upset of Carolina, but Freeman continued to underwhelm. The Panthers gifted Tampa Bay advantageous coverage looks by "playing sides" in the back end. Top CB Chris Gamble stuck to the left side, mostly squaring off with No. 2 receiver Mike Williams. Vincent Jackson matched up with fifth-round rookie RCB Josh Norman and Freeman failed to capitalize, hooking up with V-Jax just four times for 47 yards. (Jackson did have one drop.) It was good enough to lead the Bucs in receiving, but not good enough for fantasy leaguers. Jackson gets another favorable matchup this week with reeling Giants CB Corey Webster, who got cooked by Kevin Ogletree and Dez Bryant in the NFL opener. Start Jackson as a WR3, but Freeman remains buried at the bottom of QB2s. ... The Bucs' offense lacks a recipe for more than one pass catcher to maintain fantasy relevance with a run-first philosophy and shaky quarterback play. Williams was targeted three times in Week 1 -- fewer than Martin and fullback Erik Lorig -- and secured two for 12 yards. Dallas Clark played only in passing situations (48-percent snap rate) and was targeted just once.
Bonus Stat: Since selecting DT Gerald McCoy with the third overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft, the Buccaneers are 12-8 when McCoy plays. They are 3-10 when McCoy has been inactive.
Score Prediction: Giants 23, Bucs 16
Oakland @ Miami
Reggie Bush was the Dolphins' offensive centerpiece before last week's game against the Texans got out of hand, either handling the rock or being targeted on seven of Miami's first ten snaps. He had 14 touches at halftime. I think the Dolphins can keep this game closer at home against a Raiders team that looked discombobulated on both sides of the ball last Monday night. Bush has three touchdowns in two career meetings with Oakland. Expect him to add to that total and approach 25 touches this week, particularly with Daniel Thomas (concussion) out. Over his last dozen games, Bush has 1,036 yards and six TDs on 190 carries (5.45 YPC) to go with 36 catches for 256 yards. Clearly turning a corner in his career, Bush is averaging 108 all-purpose yards per game during that span and is locked in as an every-week RB2. He is also Miami's best receiver.
The only Dolphins wideout even remotely on the standard-scoring fantasy radar is Brian Hartline, who led Miami with eight Week 1 targets but secured only three for 50 yards. This passing game is sputtering and showing no signs of improvement, as Ryan Tannehill is still working out kinks and rookie right tackle Jonathan Martin is getting destroyed in pass protection. In the opener at Houston, Pro Football Focus charged Martin with four QB hurries allowed in addition to one of Texans LE J.J. Watt's sacks. The Raiders will miss top CB Ronald Bartell for the next 4-6 weeks due to a broken shoulder, but it doesn't mean much for this particular matchup. The Dolphins lack passing-game chops to exploit Bartell's absence. ... Davone Bess can get open in the slot and move the chains on occasion, but continues to exhibit little big-play ability and should never be discussed in the same breath as the Welkers and Harvins. Compared to them, Bess is just a guy.
I could give you a bunch of stats to explain why Miami has a fierce run defense, but none of it matters in fantasy football when Darren McFadden is getting 25-30 touches a game. McFadden led the NFL in Week 1 receptions (13), and his passing-game role should remain voluminous all year. If new Raiders playcaller Greg Knapp is doing anything right, it's using McFadden all over the field. He lined up in the slot and split wide in the opener, as well as in preseason games. If McFadden stays healthy -- a big "if" -- he will push for the NFL rushing lead and pace all running backs in catches. ... Rod Streater was a nice August story, making the Raiders' 53-man roster as an undrafted free agent out of Temple and starting the season opener. Streater is in the big leagues now, and he's exhibiting possession-receiver skills only, lacking explosive route-running ability, and had a fumble and a drop in Week 1 while doing absolutely nothing after the catch. I like Streater, but not for my fantasy team.
Although it often pays to give players returning from lengthy absences a week to "prove" their role and health before starting them in fantasy, Denarius Moore looks intriguing as a high-risk, high-reward WR3. Offenses generally have to throw to move the ball against Miami's defense, which envelopes run games but is one of the league's least imposing against the pass. The Dolphins are one-dimensional in terms of pass rush and easy-to-beat in the back end. Carson Palmer was a checkdown machine last Monday night against San Diego, but finished with respectable stats and projects to be under less duress this week. Moore could have played in the opener if the Raiders hadn't been overly cautious. I think he's close to 100 percent after a string of strong practices and worth a long look in Week 2. ... Darrius Heyward-Bey had an unsettling Week 1, playing fewer snaps than Streater and also seeing fewer targets. He may be scuffling a bit in the new offense. Heyward-Bey could re-instill confidence with a productive game, but for now he's not start-able.
Friday Update: Moore is listed as probable for Week 2. According to the official NFL injury report guidelines, the probable tag means the player is "virtually certain" to be available for his normal game-day role.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Dolphins 17
Houston @ Jacksonville
In four career meetings with the Jaguars, Arian Foster has accumulated 413 yards on 101 carries (4.09 YPC), and five touchdowns. He's caught 11 passes for 50 more yards. While the per-play averages suggest Jacksonville has held Foster in check, it's a reminder that monster workloads carry bellcow backs through tough times. Foster is averaging 28 touches a game in his career against the Jags. ... FOX Sports' Jay Glazer is probably the most reliable NFL reporter on the planet. He reported last Sunday that the Texans plan to increase Ben Tate's usage regardless of Foster's week-to-week health. That may be the case, but Tate is going to have to do better than six yards on five carries for Houston to make good on the plan. Tate is a low-end flex in Week 2. ... Owen Daniels' 87 yards in the opener were his second most in Daniels' last 14 games. Daniels is a good player, but he's not a reliable starting fantasy tight end. He could easily go for 30 yards in Week 2. Daniels was held to 35 yards or fewer 11 times last season, including the playoffs.
Andre Johnson picked up in Week 1 where he left off in the postseason, securing 8-of-10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown and dominating a porous Dolphins secondary. The Jaguars play better pass defense than Miami, but Johnson remains a target monster and has been on a tear of late. Since returning from a hamstring injury late last season, Johnson has at least 97 yards and/or a touchdown in four of his last five games. He's a locked-and-loaded WR1. ... The Houston pass catchers behind Johnson and Daniels aren't on the fantasy radar. Kevin Walter, Keshawn Martin, and Lestar Jean aren't even worth owning outside of Dynasty leagues, for the latter two. ... Matt Schaub continues to play efficiently and keep the Texans' offense moving, but he does little from a fantasy perspective anymore. Schaub has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just five of his last 13 games. Schaub is a game-managing two-quarterback league option and nothing more.
We saw it late in preseason and it's carrying over to real games: The Jaguars have a legit passing attack this season, and that's great news for the fantasy values of their pass catchers. Marcedes Lewis (5/52/1), Laurent Robinson (5/66), and even No. 4 receiver Cecil Shorts (4/74/1) got into the act in Week 1. Justin Blackmon (3/24) was temporarily left behind, but remains the best bet for season-long production. I'd like to see the dust settle before declaring any of the four a worthwhile fantasy start -- particularly against a Texans pass defense that has shut down every offense in its path since last September -- but that time is approaching. With a quick-hitting offense to mask his deficiencies and plenty of arm talent and athleticism, Blaine Gabbert is a new quarterback in '12.
Just like Toby Gerhart in Minnesota, Rashad Jennings' fantasy value took a long walk off a short Week 1 bridge. Jennings hit the skids due to a second-quarter knee injury, but he's probably not going to be seeing substantial doses of carries even when he gets back. Maurice Jones-Drew is the Jaguars' every-down back again, and on Sunday will square off with a Houston defense he touched up for 240 total yards and a touchdown in two 2011 meetings. One week back from his camp-long holdout, Jones-Drew didn't exhibit his usual burst in the opener, and his long speed has been fading for awhile, but his weekly workloads are no longer a concern. Start Jones-Drew as a formidable RB2. Even if the Jags fall behind, he'll play in the passing game to compensate.
Bonus Stat: Texans LE J.J. Watt has 17 tackles, five sacks, six quarterback hits, an interception returned for a touchdown, and four pass breakups in his last three games. Beast.
Score Prediction: Texans 28, Jaguars 17
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
For a guy widely regarded as positively as Andy Dalton, he sure hasn't played well in awhile. Dalton's stats in his last ten games: 191-of-338 (56.5 percent) for 2,180 yards (6.45 YPA), eight touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He has three more turnovers on fumbles lost. The overrated Bengals are 3-7 during that span with wins over the Rams, Browns, and Cardinals. Perhaps a Week 2 date with Joe Haden-less Cleveland will spark Dalton temporarily, but he's completely off the fantasy radar. ... If there was one shining light in last Monday night's 44-13 blowout loss to Baltimore, it was the Cincinnati offensive line's performance. The front five not only protected Dalton far better than his four sacks taken suggest, it truly did win its down-to-down battle in the trenches. Capitalizing on consistent push up front, BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaged 5.06 yards per carry in Week 1 -- a personal high for him in Green-Ellis' last 22 games. The Browns have ongoing defensive front-seven problems and surrendered 150 rushing yards on 30 Week 1 carries against the Eagles. The Cleveland offense is also incapable of ball movement at this point, so look for the Bengals to be playing with a lead. Start Green-Ellis in your fantasy league, then sell him high before Week 3.
A little background on Bengals slot man Andrew Hawkins, who caught eight balls for 86 yards at Baltimore: He was a contestant on Michael Irvin's 2009 reality show Fourth & Long, losing out to Jesse Holley. Hawkins stands 5-foot-7, 180 and ran 4.34 with a 38" vertical at the Toledo Rockets' 2008 Pro Day. He had a six-touch, 60-yard game against the Steelers last November. Hawkins made 2010 third-round pick Jordan Shipley expendable in training camp. I'm not sure Hawkins will produce like he did against the Ravens every week, but he's getting open more than Armon Binns and Brandon Tate, and that I would not expect to change. With Jermaine Gresham struggling as much as ever, there is some potential for Hawkins to emerge as Dalton's No. 2 target. In an obviously dumbed-down version, perhaps Hawkins can be the Welker to A.J. Green's Moss. I'd grab him in PPR leagues. ... Green was already an every-week WR1, and now Haden is on suspension. Who's going to stop him? Green is a top-five receiver play in Week 2.
Cleveland's offense is a fantasy owner's worst dream from the quarterback to the would-be pass catchers, to the offensive line. Even running back Trent Richardson showed little acceleration and cutting ability against the Eagles, averaging 2.05 yards per carry on 19 totes. I thought his usage was promising and expect Richardson to improve each week he's further removed from two knee scopes, but for now he's a dicey flex. I want to see Richardson perform better before betting he'll overcome the dreadful situation around him. Despite Richardson's Week 1 struggles, defenses will continue to set out to eliminate Cleveland's run game, daring over-matched Brandon Weeden to beat them. ... I recommended in this space to wholly avoid the Browns' passing game in Week 1, and it paid dividends if you did. Mohamed Massaquoi led the pass-catching corps with 41 yards. Greg Little was targeted four times and caught none. What a nightmare. Start the Bengals' fantasy defense.
Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Browns 7
Kansas City @ Buffalo
The matchup gets easier going from the Jets' defense to the Chiefs', but it'd be nice to actually see Ryan Fitzpatrick play well in a football game before considering using him even in a two-QB league. He gave Brandon Weeden a strong run for NFL's worst quarterback last week, and over his last ten games Fitzpatrick is 216-of-372 (58.1%) for 2,288 yards (6.15 YPA), and a 13:19 TD-to-INT ratio. The Bills have one win and nine losses. ... While Darrelle Revis got the better of Stevie Johnson in their matchup this time around, Johnson's groin injury did not appear to be a Week 1 concern as he played 60-of-63 snaps and caught four balls for 55 yards with a touchdown. A WR2, Johnson should be started with confidence against a Chiefs pass defense that Matt Ryan opened up for 299 yards and three touchdown throws in the opener. ... David Nelson tore his ACL against the Jets and will be replaced primarily by Donald Jones in the slot, with rookie T.J. Graham playing outside. From a fantasy perspective, though, don't be surprised if C.J. Spiller benefits most in box scores going forward. Spiller can play the slot, too.
Speaking of Spiller, no player in the league experienced a greater Week 1 leap in fantasy value than the Bills' versatile new workhorse runner. Multiple reports indicate Fred Jackson will miss at least four weeks with a torn LCL, catapulting Spiller from shaky flex play to RB1. Not only did Spiller almost single-handedly vault Buffalo back into last week's game, he's starting to piece together an impressive resume as a bellcow back. In Spiller's last six games, he's gained 560 yards on 81 carries (6.91 YPC) and caught 23 passes for 197 more yards. He's also scored six all-purpose touchdowns while holding up on 18 touches a game. And he's going to get the ball even more than that now. He needs to be in your lineup every week. ... Keep an eye on TE Scott Chandler. He's oft-used in the red zone -- as we recall from last year -- and Chandler played 92 percent of Buffalo's Week 1 offensive snaps, far more than his 2011 snap rates. He also plays extensively as a slot receiver. Chandler could be another beneficiary of Nelson's ACL injury.
I re-watched Bills-Jets on Wednesday, and if I'm a Bills fan I'm probably already a little concerned about Dave Wannstedt. Fandom or no, I'm green-lighting Buffalo's defense for fantasy matchup purposes. Mark Sanchez had a crystal-clean pocket as Jets receivers ran wide open through the back end. The Bills gave up eight pass plays of 15-plus yards against a Jets offense that's been an NFL laughingstock. Rookie cornerbacks not named Morris Claiborne tend to struggle out of the chute -- often mightily -- and that looks like it'll be the case with Stephon Gilmore. Even coach Chan Gailey admitted post-game that Gilmore played "a little soft." Rookie Stephen Hill was the first to capitalize. It's scary to think what Dwayne Bowe might do to him. ... Dexter McCluster can be a useful slot guy in new Chiefs OC Brian Daboll's offense, but I'd hesitate to consider him a fantasy starter beyond PPR settings. McCluster finished Week 1 with a team-high 10 targets, securing six for 82 yards. He is still sitting on three non-return touchdowns in 28 career games. It's difficult to foresee consistency from McCluster as a situational slot receiver in a running offense.
Jon Baldwin's offseason "buzz" has been exposed as offseason "puffery." He was the Chiefs' No. 4 receiver in Week 1 and was not targeted. ... Steve Breaston looks to be behind McCluster, Bowe, and Tony Moeaki in K.C.'s target pecking order. Drop Breaston if you haven't already. ... Despite a strong first half of the Chiefs' Week 1 game, Matt Cassel remains buried on the fantasy QB2 list. He came back down to Earth in the final two quarters, completing just 11 of his final 21 throws for 135 yards and two interceptions. ... Third-string back Shaun Draughn finished Week 1 with eight touches and a four-yard rushing score, but virtually all of his work came in garbage time with the Chiefs down 40-17. ... Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis remain the only fantasy-viable backs in Kansas City. Charles was not involved in the Week 1 pass game (0 targets), but rushed for 87 yards on 16 carries (5.44 YPC) and played more snaps than Hillis. Hillis is still the favorite for passing-game duties. ... I'll keep a running tally here of Chiefs red-zone involvement between Charles and Hillis. In Week 1, Charles got two red-zone carries. Hillis got one. I think you lock in Charles as an RB1/2 against Buffalo's foundering defense. Hillis remains a viable flex option.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 17
Baltimore @ Philadelphia
Joe Flacco put a whipping on Cincinnati's normally stout defense last Monday, operating without a huddle on 21-of-58 snaps. Flacco dominated in the fast-paced, passer-friendly attack, sending a 52-yard strike to Torrey Smith on the first play from scrimmage and quietly putting together his sixth multiple-touchdown effort in Flacco's last seven games. The revised offense bodes well for Flacco's long-range outlook, but may meet its match against Philly's relentless 9-Technique pass rush. The no-huddle sacrifices blockers to get more catchers on the field, and often telegraphs intentions with a pass-first structure. Let's see Baltimore's offense fare well against a formidable foe before declaring Flacco matchup-proof. He does have an attractive one soon on the docket, as the Ravens host the Patriots in Week 3. We'll know to start Flacco if he stays hot this week at The Linc. ... Dennis Pitta recorded a career-high 73 yards and a score on five Week 1 receptions and looks to be a big part of Baltimore's new offensive design. Pitta started over Ed Dickson and played more snaps, lining up primarily as a slot tight end and running down the seam. I wouldn't trust Pitta as a fantasy starter yet, but he can get there if this usage holds up. Including January's two playoff contests, Pitta has at least 40 yards and a touchdown in three of his past four games.
Smith teased with a monster preseason and the long bomb to open last week's win, but he took a backseat thereafter as Pitta, Anquan Boldin, and Ray Rice were Flacco's primary receivers over the middle and inside the numbers. Smith was targeted twice the rest of the way. Philadelphia defends the perimeter better than the middle of the field with edge pressure to support talented outside CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. It might be a good week to sit Smith. ... Eagles rookie nickel CB Brandon Boykin was one of my favorite draft picks in April. He was a stud cover man and special teams playmaker at Georgia. Slightly built (5'9/182), though, Boykin may struggle with Boldin's physicality in the slot. Showing fresh legs in the opener, I like Boldin to lead Baltimore in receiving this week. ... Rice only received 13 touches in the no-huddle's debut, but racked up 93 total yards and two touchdowns. He'll score more if the Ravens generate increased ball movement in the new-look offense. Rice remains locked in as a top-five RB1 play.
LeSean McCoy's matchup appears difficult on paper, but the Terrell Suggs-less Ravens weren't so imposing Monday against Cincinnati. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Cedric Peerman touched up Baltimore for 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (5.38 YPC), and McCoy is far more skilled than both. McCoy also has a history of success against elite run defenses. In six 2011 matchups with top-ten rush units, McCoy scored eight touchdowns and averaged a robust 4.49 yards per touch. Start McCoy with confidence. ... Michael Vick threw four interceptions in the Eagles' nail-biting Week 1 win over the Browns, but shook off the early rust after an essentially idle preseason to lead Philadelphia to victory on a game-winning touchdown pass to backup TE Clay Harbor. Baltimore's pass rush was nonexistent for long stretches against the Bengals, giving Andy Dalton ample time to throw. Dalton couldn't capitalize, but Vick can. The matchup is quite a bit less intimidating than "versus Baltimore" normally indicates. I still think Vick is more of a mid-range to low-end QB1 this week with Jeremy Maclin (hip) and DeSean Jackson (hamstring) both banged up.
Brent Celek is worth a look this week for fantasy leaguers desperate at tight end. Celek was targeted eight times in the opener, catching four for 65 yards. While the Eagles aren't going to be able to fire off nearly 100 snaps every game as they did against the Browns, Celek would stand to benefit in the passing attack were Maclin or Jackson either gimpy or inactive. And Celek shouldn't have to block so much against a decreasingly effective Ravens pass rush. ... Maclin owners need to track his progress leading all the way up until game time. His balky hip is cause for concern. After going down in the first half against Cleveland, Maclin managed one catch for 11 yards in the final two quarters. ... Jackson plays flanker in the Eagles' offense, the position most commonly covered by Ravens top CB Lardarius Webb. While Jackson moves around the formation enough that he won't draw Webb on every single snap -- Webb typically sticks to one side -- D-Jax does have a tough on-paper matchup. I'd still start him if Maclin is declared inactive Sunday. Both Maclin and Jackson did return to practice on Friday morning, suggesting they’ll play against Baltimore.
Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Ravens 17
New Orleans @ Carolina
Two defenses' Opening Day efforts were particularly embarrassing. Buffalo was one. The Saints were the other. I discussed in Week 1 Matchups how New Orleans' defensive personnel poorly fits new DC Steve Spagnuolo's scheme. That certainly seemed the case against Washington, as the five hits on Robert Griffin III were largely innocuous and the rookie operated in a mostly-clean pocket. (For RG3's part, he also played with poise in the few instances he felt duress.) Saints top CB Jabari Greer is tentatively due back this week after a lengthy sports hernia absence, but doesn't figure to be 100 percent. Rookie nickel back Corey White and RCB Patrick Robinson were picked on frequently by the Redskins' air raid. After a slow opener in which they were dominated in time of possession (nearly 20:40) by the Bucs, I think the Panthers will bounce back big against a legitimately bad Saints defense, with Cam Newton leading the charge. ... I also think Jonathan Stewart (ankle) was severely missed in the opener. Though he isn't employed as a workhorse, it's important to recall that Stewart led Carolina's 2011 backfield in snaps by a healthy margin and adds a dynamic all-purpose threat, often affecting games even when he's not handling the rock. Stewart and Williams are low-end flex options, but the former's return should spark this offense.
I went back and watched Panthers-Bucs on Tuesday to prep for this column. The Tampa defense did a terrific job of snuffing out read-option plays and basically eliminating the Panthers' vaunted run game. (Carolina led the NFL in per-carry average last year.) While the game eventually got away from the Panthers because they so rarely had the ball, it was evident that OC Rob Chudzinski has big plans for Greg Olsen, possibly to be Carolina's No. 2 receiver. Olsen lined up in the slot with regularity and also ran pass routes from his in-line tight end position. He played 96 percent of the snaps. Had the Panthers held the ball for longer than 22 minutes -- and Olsen not dropped an early catchable pass -- I think we'd be talking about him a lot more coming off a 90- or 100-yard game. Because of where he plays, Olsen will square off Sunday with coverage-liability linebackers Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne. Olsen can have a big day against this defense. ... Though I'm not enamored with his physical skills, Brandon LaFell played 52-of-52 downs in Week 1 and that's promising for his future fantasy outlook. Because this game projects as high scoring, you could do worse than LaFell as a WR3. ... Steve Smith turned 33 in May and he's still playing on springs. He was the best player on the football field in Week 1 and is an every-week WR1/2.
You'll start noticing a trend with Saints games. Just like last week, the Vegas experts project the New Orleans game to be the highest scoring of Sunday's slate (over-under of 51). As noted in this space before, you want to start fantasy players in these kinds of games. The Saints' season didn't get off to an ideal start in a home loss to Washington, but these guys fill up the box score even when they lose and essentially force their opponent to do the same. Jimmy Graham, Drew Brees, Marques Colston (despite a relatively slow game one), and Darren Sproles are money in the bank. Start them every week. With that out of the way, onto the other guys. ... Lance Moore opened with 120 yards and a touchdown on six catches against the Skins, but I think the most fantasy-relevant stat was Moore's 75-percent snap rate. Moore has not always been a 75-percent player; he didn't have a single game of over 42 snaps in 2011 and played 56 last week. Perhaps it was due to a comeback-oriented offense, but it's something to keep an eye on. For this week, Moore's role also may be positively impacted by Devery Henderson's (concussion) unavailability.
Maybe I'm delusional on Mark Ingram. I think my reasons for liking him are logical. He's a gifted player, a talented power back with better versatility than his role in New Orleans suggests. He's the go-to red-zone back in perhaps the NFL's most productive offense. Ingram should be scoring touchdowns. But he played only nine snaps in Week 1 because the Saints fell behind early, and at this point he's killing your fantasy week when he's not hammering in a goal-line score. Is Ingram just a younger, fresher version of 2011 LeGarrette Blount and 2012 Michael Turner? Perhaps. I'm sitting Ingram this week in a mouth-watering matchup. I wonder if I'll regret it. ... Pierre Thomas played 18 snaps against the Skins and got the ball five times. Again, Thomas is a good NFL player. He's terrific in the screen game and soaks up blocked yards. But he's better in real life than fantasy. Thomas is going to need either Sproles or Ingram to get injured to approach viable flex value.
Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Saints 27
Arizona @ New England
Perhaps once Sunday's games are through Wes Welker will have caught ten balls for 120 yards and two touchdowns and I'll look stupid for saying this. (Wouldn't be a first.) But I do believe there is substance to the notion that Welker is taking a "backseat" in an offense that will feature its two tight ends, Brandon Lloyd, and Stevan Ridley moving forward. Ridley has developed into a more dynamic chain-moving option than Welker, who showed signs of decline late last season, being held to 60 yards or fewer in five of his final six games. His per-game yardage average sank from 120 in the first eight weeks to 70.6 in the last 11, including playoffs. Welker's yards-per-catch average also dipped from 14.5 to 10.4. He didn't score at all in Weeks 7-11, and found pay dirt just twice between November 28 and the February 5 Super Bowl. I still think Welker will catch 90 balls, but question whether he'll exceed standard-scoring WR3 production in Josh McDaniels' offense. He should still be locked into PPR lineups. ... Ridley, to me, is a top-ten running back play until proven otherwise. He's not another BenJarvus Green-Ellis, whose weekly value was totally governed by weekly game plans. Ridley is a legit bellcow runner. Start him against the Cardinals.
Cardinals DLs Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell manhandled the Seahawks' offensive line in Week 1, but they'll have trouble keeping it up against New England's far more talented front five. Tom Brady is an elite QB1. ... I think there is reason for caution on Brandon Lloyd this week, but not because of his final Week 1 stat line. He led the Patriots in targets and would have finished with six catches for 117 yards and a touchdown had Brady not overthrown Lloyd on a would-be 48-yard score after blowing past Titans FS Michael Griffin. I'm a little worried about Lloyd in Week 2 because of Patrick Peterson's coverage. I'd bump Lloyd from borderline WR1 to WR2/3 status this Sunday, but certainly wouldn't be opposed to starting him. ... Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both scored Opening Day touchdowns and are the top-two options in an efficient, high-octane, voluminous passing attack. They are both locked-and-loaded every-week fantasy starters. ... Gronkowski has 23 TDs in his last 23 games. He's off to a Hall-worthy beginning to his career.
The fact that Kevin Kolb led Arizona to a Week 1 win off the bench against Seattle is a nice little short-term plus for a Cardinals organization that was horribly ripped off in last year's trade for a quarterback who doesn't even fit their system. Expect Kolb's success to be short lived. NT Vince Wilfork, impressive rookie RE Chandler Jones, and versatile WLB Dont'a Hightower will shred the Arizona offensive line just as they did Tennessee's in the opener. And we all know how well Kolb reacts to pressure. I'd avoid Kolb even in two-quarterback leagues, chalk up Andre Roberts' 5/54/1 first game as a fluke, and start only Larry Fitzgerald from the Cardinals' passing game.
Although Beanie Wells is back (supposedly) healthy this week, I don't see a lot of reason for Week 2 optimism from the Cardinals' backfield. Ryan Williams was completely ineffective on ten Opening Day touches, managing 26 total yards and losing a fumble. He's a candidate for coach Ken Whisenhunt's doghouse. Wells' health status is day to day even when he's not listed on the weekly injury reports. Wells had 14 yards on seven Week 1 rushing attempts. Unless they are playing the Rams or one of them suffers a game-costing injury, Wells and Williams are not viable fantasy starters for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't even bother with either of them in a flex spot.
Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Cardinals 10
Minnesota @ Indianapolis
On December 24 last year, Adrian Peterson shredded his left ACL and MCL with damage to both meniscuses. 268 days later, "All Day" shocked even the folks who went to every Vikings training camp practice by averaging nearly 5.0 yards a carry and scoring twice against the Jaguars. "I told him: 'I'm not sure you weren't just faking that ACL,'" coach Leslie Frazier joked (sort of) after the win. "He looked pretty good." I went back and watched all of Peterson's 18 touches, and I'd guess he's at around 85 percent of his in-prime self. That's better than all but maybe five NFL backs, of course, and Peterson will only improve each week as he becomes further and further removed from the injury. Indianapolis' run defense was eviscerated by the Bears in Week 1, allowing Matt Forte and Michael Bush to combine for three TDs and 122 yards on 28 carries. Forte and Bush's combined rushing yardage sounds like a reasonable over-under for AP in Week 2. ... Meanwhile, Toby Gerhart has already been reduced to change-of-pace back and fantasy handcuff-only. Gerhart had seven touches on 20 Week 1 snaps, and that'll be about his ceiling moving forward.
Frazier underutilized Percy Harvin last season, often leaving him on the sideline in the red zone and for long stretches in the open field. The mistake has been corrected. Harvin played 47-of-59 snaps in Week 1 (80 percent) and racked up 104 total yards on 11 touches. Over his last eight games, Harvin has 90 touches for 827 yards and seven touchdowns. (Not including returns.) Those numbers extrapolate to 160 touches for 1,654 yards and 14 scores over a full season, stats that would've ranked Harvin second among 2011 fantasy receivers, behind only Calvin Johnson. Still think Harvin isn't a WR1? ... Kyle Rudolph played 100 percent of Minnesota's Week 1 snaps and ranked second to Harvin in targets with seven, securing five for 67 yards including a Gronkian 29-yard gain over the top of Jaguars CB Kevin Rutland. The touchdowns will come. Rudolph is a legitimate TE1 against the Colts, whose loss of DE/OLB Dwight Freeney (ankle) may free up Rudolph for more pass routes than blocking assignments. ... No other Vikings pass catchers are worth fantasy roster spots. I did think Christian Ponder was impressive against Jacksonville's underrated pass defense after a slow start to Week 1, completing 17 of his final 20 passes for 238 yards. He's a viable back-end QB2. I'd take him over the likes of Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford, and probably Russell Wilson, too.
The Colts have misled with info regarding Austin Collie's (concussions) availability for consecutive weeks, and I'd be hard pressed to trust him even if he's declared active Sunday at noon. While I'm certain Collie will be a fantasy asset once cleared, I want to see him play a significant on-field role before placing him in my lineup. Collie would have a difficult matchup with Vikings slot CB Antoine Winfield, anyway. Winfield helped hold Justin Blackmon to 24 yards on three catches on Opening Day. ... Colts RT Winston Justice struggled in pass pro before suffering his own concussion in the opener. While Justice is expected to play against Minnesota, he may have his lunch handed to him by LE Brian Robison. Robison was a Week 1 terror against the Jaguars, as Pro Football Focus credited him with six quarterback hurries and three hits, on top of three solo tackles and a pass breakup. Andrew Luck has a bright future, but his supporting cast isn't helping him. Collie's health is unreliable and so is Luck's protection, even to a greater degree.
Falling behind 17-3 in the second quarter led to 45 pass attempts by Luck in Week 1, a number Colts coaches certainly would say is too high. The Bears sat back in their opportunistic Cover 2 and picked him off three times, in addition to reserve DE Corey Wootton's strip-sack. The game flow resulted in abnormally high target counts for Reggie Wayne (18), Coby Fleener (10), and Donnie Avery (8). While Wayne will remain a double-digit target monster going forward -- at least until Collie returns -- I don't think you can count on Fleener and Avery as starters in a game that projects to offer up a more level playing field. This should be a tight one. Start Wayne, but the others need to do it again to enter fantasy lineups. ... Donald Brown powered in from 18 yards out for a Week 1 touchdown against the Bears, but was held under four yards-per on his other eight carries and lost 30 combined snaps to rookie No. 2 runner Vick Ballard and passing-down back Mewelde Moore. Sell Brown now if you find a taker. Minnesota held the Jaguars to 113 scoreless yards on 34 runs (3.32 YPC) on Opening Day and should dominate Indianapolis in the trenches.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Colts 20
Friday Update: Collie was listed as doubtful on Friday's final injury report. Look for another start out of Avery, although I don't think anyone besides Wayne is a strong Week 2 fantasy play on the Indianapolis 53-man roster.
4:05PM ET Games
Washington @ St. Louis
Pierre Garcon teased his mammoth fantasy upside as the featured "X" receiver in Washington's offense by catching four balls for 109 yards and a touchdown in just eight snaps at New Orleans. Unfortunately, he suffered a first-quarter foot injury and will be a game-time decision for Sunday's afternoon matchup with the Rams. Aldrick Robinson was Garcon's fill-in last week, but Leonard Hankerson also has experience at X. I think it's a fantasy situation to avoid due to the late start, lack of clarity, and Garcon's suspect health if he plays. I'd look elsewhere for Week 2 receivers. ... Whereas Fred Davis was a go-to pass catcher in the 2011 Redskins offense, so far Davis has operated as more of a traditional, balanced tight end in the new-look attack. Davis played 76-of-76 Week 1 snaps, but Pro Football Focus charted him with 52 blocking plays and only 24 pass routes. Those metrics might reverse when the Redskins play a game mostly from behind, but they don't figure to do that at the Edward Jones Dome. Davis is not a recommended Week 2 start.
Robert Griffin III was nothing short of terrific in his NFL debut. While he benefited from an anemic Saints pass rush, Griffin also made big-time throws when there was pressure in his face, most notably on the 88-yard touchdown pass to Garcon. Eight of Griffin's nine runs were by design, confirming the Redskins are game planning to put his legs to productive use. Garcon's potential absence is a slight Week 2 fantasy concern, but Robinson's out-of-nowhere 4/52/1 career game suggests they can just plug another guy in and be alright. Griffin is a top-ten quarterback play in Week 2 and I expect him to remain so going forward. ... Alfred Morris is a laboring plodder; a running back who can't run. But he falls forward, has lean and power to his game, and can make a small cut when he needs to. Knowing Shanahan & Son's history, Morris isn't guaranteed the Week 2 feature back role. Shoot, I wrote last week that Evan Royster was the favorite for carries after the Redskins listed him first on the "updated" depth chart. But I'd feel good about Morris' chances of pacing the backfield in workload for a second straight week. Roy Helu is the passing-down back, for now. Royster played three Week 1 snaps and will have to wait his turn.
The Rams breathed a sigh of relief when LT Rodger Saffold practiced this week following last Sunday's scary neck injury. They won't get back C Scott Wells (foot fracture) anytime soon. Wells was perhaps the NFC's best center last year, and St. Louis signed him for $24 million specifically to spark its interior run blocking for Jeff Fisher's ground-based attack. Wells' loss is incredibly discouraging news for Steven Jackson, who looked sharp all August but found no room to run in the opener against Detroit. The fact that Jackson is a workhorse and true every-down back should keep him locked into fantasy lineups as an RB2/flex at worst, but it's difficult to be as optimistic about S-Jax's season-long outlook. ... Lance Kendricks played 42-of-58 Week 1 snaps (72 percent) but was targeted just twice, ranking fifth on the Rams. Kendricks isn't even a viable TE2.
The Week 1 box score shows a touchdown for Brandon Gibson, but Danny Amendola is the lone Rams receiver worth weekly fantasy consideration. And that's only in PPR leagues. Amendola led the corps by playing 90 percent of St. Louis' Week 1 snaps and was targeted a team-high nine times, securing five for 70 yards. Don't bet on 100-yard games or touchdowns from Amendola, but he should rack up receptions all year long. ... Steve Smith (23 snaps), Chris Givens (18), and Brian Quick (3) rounded out the opening-week receiver group for St. Louis. ... The Rams are asking Sam Bradford to manage games this year, and he did so effectively in the opener, avoiding turnovers and converting 68 percent of his 25 throws. Fisher would likely be happy if Bradford enjoyed a 2011 Alex Smith-type year. That would be a promising step for the Rams' organization in the long run, but couldn't equate to much fantasy value. Drop Bradford for higher-upside QB2s.
Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Rams 13
Dallas @ Seattle
Cowboys RCB Morris Claiborne all but eliminated Hakeem Nicks from Week 1 with lockdown man coverage, holding the Giants' split end to 38 yards on four tough catches. Seahawks split end Braylon Edwards may struggle to repeat his own 43-yard opener versus Dallas' impressive first-round pick. Edwards also looks set to share time with Golden Tate, who returns from a knee injury this week ... Cowboys DC Rob Ryan played corner-wideout matchups to perfection against New York, letting Claiborne manhandle Nicks while usual LCB Brandon Carr shadowed Victor Cruz whenever Cruz lined up outside. Look for Carr to mirror Sidney Rice in a tough matchup for Seattle's flanker. ... Russell Wilson didn't show enough at Arizona to be worth considering as any more than a two-QB league option against a Dallas pass defense that may be emerging as a legit shutdown force. Wilson can still be a 2012 fantasy asset, but he'll need better pass protection and to play with more aggressiveness and command. He played like a tentative rookie in the opener.
Cowboys NT Jay Ratliff (ankle) will miss his second straight game. While his absence wasn't fully exposed by a fading Ahmad Bradshaw last Thursday, it's more likely to be by Marshawn Lynch and Seattle's run-centric attack. Even with Ratliff in the lineup for last November's meeting with the Seahawks, Lynch powered his way to 135 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries (5.87 YPC) against these same Cowboys. After dealing with back spasms last week, Lynch proved his health by handling the rock 23 times against the Cardinals. Lynch should also benefit from the return of RG John Moffitt from elbow surgery. Moffitt missed Week 1, and rookie fill-in J.R. Sweezy got tossed around the field by DE/DT Darnell Dockett. ... Zach Miller caught all three of his targets for 40 yards in the opener. Largely a blocker in this offense, Miller has been off the fantasy radar since he was a Raider. ... Doug Baldwin played 67 percent of the Week 1 snaps, but dropped two of his five targets and finished with five yards. The slot receiver might have a good week now and again this season, but will lack consistency as a No. 3/4 passing option in a conservative offense.
Staying with the theme of recalling last year's Seahawks-Cowboys game, I think it's notable that DeMarco Murray touched up a normally stout Seattle front seven for 139 yards on 22 carries (6.32 YPC), adding 47 more yards on four grabs. Murray is averaging a sterling 5.59 yards-per-rushing attempt through 14 NFL games. He a fantasy lineup mainstay. ... Kevin Ogletree's unforeseeable and most-likely-fluky monster Week 1 may ultimately work to the advantage of Dez Bryant by discouraging defenses from sending heavy coverage Bryant's way. The Cowboys now have five ways to beat a defense: Dez, Murray, Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Ogletree. Tony Romo will throw to the open man, and that will be Bryant more often than not if he's avoiding double teams and safety help. Bryant also gets the most favorable matchup of Week 2. Seattle RCB Brandon Browner is physical and makes plays on the ball, but he's stiff in the hips and vulnerable over the top. Bryant can match Browner's physicality and beat him deep with speed.
Returning from a month-long hamstring injury, Austin needed a half to get his legs underneath him against the Giants. Sitting on one catch for nine yards at the break, Austin took over on one fourth-quarter drive, capping it with a 34-yard touchdown on a sluggo route after aligning at split end. He whipped Justin Tryon on the play. Austin still does some of his finest work in the slot and will square off Sunday with 32-year-old Marcus Trufant. Consider Austin a rock-solid WR2/3. ... I feel much better about Romo's fantasy prospects now that his weaponry is getting healthy and Ogletree emerged as a viable option. Dallas has the makings of one of football's most explosive offenses. While talented, the Seahawks' defense has not yet established itself as an intimidating unit from a pass-game perspective. Romo is a mid-range QB1 play. ... Jason Witten is the one Cowboys pass catcher I'd avoid in Week 2. Witten (spleen) should round gradually back into form, but he spent most of Week 1 on the line blocking and saw just three targets. He dropped one, and caught the other two for short gains near the line of scrimmage. Witten is a TE2 at the moment. I’d start guys like Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, and Greg Olsen over him.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Seahawks 14
4:25PM ET Games
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
Last Sunday's perfect storm of no pressure and bad coverage by Buffalo's secondary miraged the Jets as a passable offense -- for a week at least. The Bills' inability to collapse the pocket was pathetic against an average-at-best New York offensive line. Mark Sanchez didn't take a single sack or quarterback hit, unless you include contact after throws were made. I think it's safe to say the jury remains very much out on the Jets' passing offense. Its mettle will be tested by a Steelers team that led the league in pass defense last season and gets back FS Ryan Clark this week. ... Chris Wesseling's takeaways after watching tape of Shonn Greene's 27/94/1 opener: "Not impressed despite solid fantasy outing. Fumbled twice, left yards on field. TD came deep in garbage time. Turner-esque." Greene is an ideal sell-high candidate. Move him before Sunday's kickoff. ... Dustin Keller isn't recovered from his preseason hamstring strain. He played on a snap count against the Bills and was targeted once. Particularly after experiencing a setback on the practice field this week, I’d consider dropping Keller for healthier options in more reliable passing attacks.
Friday Update: Keller has been ruled out for Week 2.
I did some game watching on Stephen Hill at Georgia Tech ahead of April's draft. He looked like the best player on the field at times, and the worst at others. He definitely looked like the Jets' best skill-position player against overwhelmed rookie CB Stephon Gilmore in Week 1. Hill can run by coverage and make plays on seemingly uncatchable throws. While I'm hesitant to crown Hill despite the impressive 5/89/2 line, he has a favorable Week 2 matchup with Steelers LCB Keenan Lewis, whom Peyton Manning picked on relentlessly last Sunday. Hill is a boom-or-bust fantasy play. ... Santonio Holmes has a more difficult draw in RCB Ike Taylor, who may shadow the Jets' $45 million receiver all over the field. Pittsburgh won't let the player it traded away for a fifth-round pick amid Steel City groans beat them on their home turf. Keep Holmes plastered to your bench.
Pittsburgh went three-wide on 52 of its 71 snaps in Week 1, vaulting Emmanuel Sanders to the status of "regular" as he tied Antonio Brown for team highs in targets (8) and catches (4). Sanders is an intriguing gambling man's WR3 this week. Whereas Brown and Mike Wallace will contend with New York's impenetrable outside corners, Sanders will work the slot against liability nickel back Kyle Wilson. Sanders is a sleeper to lead the Steelers in Week 2 receiving. ... If the opener was any indication, the Steelers will indeed be a pass-first team under new playcaller Todd Haley. Only 25 of their 71 plays were designed runs in a matchup with Denver that went down to the wire. Jonathan Dwyer is the guy to use if you're willing to roll dice on a Steelers back, but he's just a flex option. Isaac Redman looks so worthless in the ball-carrying department that he should be dropped in standard leagues. Rookie Chris Rainey got three Week 1 touches, gaining four yards. Baron Batch had one carry. Rashard Mendenhall (knee) isn't due back until Week 4 at soonest.
Heavier reliance on passing may bode well for Ben Roethlisberger's 2012 fantasy outlook, but the pass-pro problems aren't going away. First-round pick David DeCastro is shelved until at least midseason, and second-rounder Mike Adams gets eviscerated every time he takes the field. While it isn't QB1-caliber production, I do think it's worth noting for won-loss prognosticators that Roethlisberger has had a fair amount of past success against Rex Ryan. In nine career meetings with defenses overseen by the Jets' coach and former Ravens coordinator, Big Ben has a 6-3 record, completing 152-of-278 passes (54.7 percent) for 1,848 yards (6.65 YPA), 12 touchdown passes, and eight interceptions. In light of Ryan's dominant defensive track record, they're decent stats all things considered. ... We'll know by Saturday whether Darrelle Revis ("mild" concussion) will play. Let's assume he does. I'd think Ryan sticks Antonio Brown on Revis Island with Antonio Cromartie shadowing Mike Wallace because those are the most reasonable skill-set matchups. Wallace is a deep-ball specialist, or at least viewed as such, and Cromartie is a long corner who can really run. Brown is more versatile. Revis has shown an ability to track receivers on all portions of the field, from Wes Welker inside the numbers to Andre Johnson outside. Wallace is the superior Week 2 fantasy play.
Friday Update: And with the release of Friday's injury report, everything has changed. The Jets ruled out Revis for Sunday's game, and he will not make the trip to Pittsburgh. The Jets figure to keep Cromartie on Wallace while turning to Wilson and Ellis Lankster to stay with Brown. Brown now looks like the best bet for production in Pittsburgh's passing attack. Be sure to start Brown in Week 2.
Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Jets 7
Tennessee @ San Diego
Jake Locker's accuracy woes were a much bigger issue in preseason than they have been in real games. Locker still hasn't played an extended stretch with a viable running game, and through six career appearances has averaged nearly 8.0 yards per pass attempt with six all-purpose TDs and two turnovers. Cleared to play after last week's non-throwing shoulder injury, Locker is a strong two-quarterback league option in sunny San Diego. The Chargers lack an imposing pass defense, so Locker should be considered by risk-taking QB1 streamers, as well. ... Game watchers are aware of the factors that worked against Chris Johnson in Week 1. He was bottled up for three yards or worse on 9-of-11 Week 1 carries, including two for no gain and three negative runs. C.J. received two rushing attempts after halftime as the Titans trailed 21-3 at the break. Johnson's talent remains, but Tennessee's offensive line is seemingly incapable of preventing penetration and Johnson has been all too willing to go down on first contact behind the line of scrimmage. Falling behind early also didn't help, but Johnson looks destined for another roller-coaster year.
Jared Cook's relatively quiet opener saw him catch 4-of-6 targets for 64 yards, but his usage was promising. Cook played 60-of-65 snaps (92 percent), more than any other Titans non-lineman and an individual career high for Cook. He's a virtual lock to reach TE1 fantasy production if this keeps up. Grab Cook quickly if he is on your waiver wire. His breakout game can come as soon as this week. ... In his return from suspension and three knee surgeries, Kenny Britt is scheduled for 15-25 snaps against the Bolts, which equates to something between 25 and 40 percent of the plays. While Britt possesses talent to produce through adverse situations, I'm putting him on a wait-and-see week in fantasy football. He's never caught a pass from Locker beyond the practice field, and has rarely even done that. Britt remains on track to be a fantasy asset sooner rather than later. ... One of Kendall Wright and Nate Washington is likely to have a productive Week 2 game, but your guess is as good as mine as to which receiver it'll be. They'll both play a heavy majority of snaps and have favorable matchups. Neither stood out as a particularly superior player in the opener.
Friday Update: Washington did not practice all week due to a leg injury and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Tennessean beat writer Jim Wyatt suggested he could be "limited" if he's active against San Diego. While Britt will remain on a "pitch count," this could be the opening Cook and Wright need for breakthrough games. They're certainly the two favorites for Locker's Week 2 pass targets.
Ryan Mathews' increased practice work is promising and so is the fact that he stands an outside chance to face the Titans. But I own Mathews in a number of leagues and will be starting Alfred Morris instead. While the matchup is favorable, my best guess is Mathews will initially be on a pitch count, before recapturing full-time duties in his second game back. It's early in the year and there haven't been many NFL injuries yet. Most fantasy owners can afford to exercise caution. With only Ronnie Brown (done) and Curtis Brinkley (ineffective) behind him, Mathews can't be reliably handcuffed in a game with a late start. The Chargers host Atlanta next week. ... Robert Meachem beat Raiders CB Ronald Bartell for a 46-yard bomb in Week 1, but I found his overall usage unsettling. Eddie Royal played first in the rotation, as Meachem finished with just 36 snaps (61 percent) and two targets. Royal was also targeted twice and was a 37-percent player. Royal can be waived in standard leagues. Meachem is a WR4 until we see him produce and play more.
Friday Update: Mathews is listed as questionable on the injury report, but is now not expected to play. Expect Brinkley and Brown to struggle for a second straight week while San Diego leans on its passing game to move the chains. Mathews’ Week 2 unavailability is good news for Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates.
Malcom Floyd led the Chargers' wideout corps with an 86-percent Week 1 snap rate, also pacing the group in targets (6) and yards (66) while scoring a second-quarter TD from six yards out. Look for Meachem to square off with consistent Titans LCB Jason McCourty while Floyd contends with RCB Alterraun Verner. Neither has a plus matchup, but I continue to prefer Floyd of the two. ... Philip Rivers and his offensive line looked better than I expected against Oakland, and the Titans' pass rush is even less imposing than the Raiders'. Rivers is a low-end QB1, but I was skeptical he'd even get there this year after looking at his 2011 performance. ... Tennessee's pass defense got shredded for 12 catches, 129 yards, and two touchdowns by New England tight ends in the opener. Antonio Gates isn't quite as good as Gronk or Hernandez, but he's about as close as the rest of the NFL can get. Keep an eye on Gates' rib injury, but I fully expect him to start Sunday.
Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Titans 23
Sunday Night Football
Detroit @ San Francisco
While San Francisco's offensive philosophy is run-based and will continue to be regardless of forthcoming box scores, Jim Harbaugh has gotten Alex Smith to the point where he's on the QB2 radar simply because he's so efficient. Harbaugh has developed Smith into a precise, confident, reliable passer who capitalizes on advantageous situations where the defense is frequently on its heels to protect against the run game. Up front, the 49ers blow opponents off the football with a powerful, smash-mouth mentality. Smith has not been intercepted since November of 2011, in between posting an 11:0 TD-to-INT ratio across eight games with two more scores on the ground. Don't expect Smith to leap into top-12 quarterback production, but he is a better player than we thought he'd be and it was more evident than ever in San Francisco's Week 1 win over Green Bay. Despite talent limitations, Smith is panning out as an effective real-life quarterback. He's not Trent Dilfer. ... Vernon Davis found Week 1 pay dirt and now has six touchdowns over his last six games, on top of 31 grabs for 579 yards. It's a 96.5 yards-per-game average. He's a top-six TE1.
Friday Update: The Lions will be without FS Louis Delmas (doubtful, knee), in addition to top CBs Chris Houston (doubtful, ankle) and Bill Bentley (out, concussion) against the 49ers. While the matchup boost does not vault Smith into the QB1 realm, it helps his chances in two-quarterback leagues and also improves the Week 2 outlook for San Francisco's passing game as a whole.
Randy Moss' Week 1 box score looks serviceable (4/47/1), but there are warning signs. He played 21-of-62 snaps (33.9 percent) -- fewer than Mario Manningham -- and caught his 14-yard score on a blown coverage. I wonder if Harbaugh will use Moss as a package-type player, operating in the red zone and on specified playcalls between the 20s. He could be a headache WR3 going forward, scoring touchdowns but killing you in weeks you play him and he doesn't. ... Manningham isn't roster-worthy in 12-team leagues despite playing eight more Week 1 snaps than Moss. He's currently a rotational player with skills limited enough that Mario would require full complements of snaps to be fantasy viable in a run-first attack. ... Michael Crabtree is a volume possession receiver with more value in PPR leagues than non. The Lions do not present a difficult pass-defense matchup, but Crabtree is just a WR3. ... If the 49ers are going to keep manhandling defensive front sevens as they did in the opener against Green Bay, it may not matter that Frank Gore has lost a step. Keep starting Gore until he begins showing signs of slowing down.
The 49ers and Lions squared off in October last year and Calvin Johnson tagged San Francisco for 113 yards on seven catches. The Niners might accept a stat line like that again as long as they keep Megatron from punishing them with multiple touchdowns. Gore also had 141 yards and a score on just 15 carries in that game, while Kendall Hunter added 33 more on eight runs. The Lions made stopping Steven Jackson their defensive focus in Week 1 against the Rams and figure to do the same in this game. ... Scoop up Titus Young if he was dropped in your league after a quiet opener. I wouldn't start Young on Sunday night, but he will be an asset in the weeks ahead. He started in a three-wide set against St. Louis, and looked ticketed for heavy snaps before head-butting Rams CB Janoris Jenkins and getting benched early in the third quarter. ... Nate Burleson (6/69) and Brandon Pettigrew (5/77) picked up the slack with Young out. Burleson is a WR5 lacking playmaking ability. Pettigrew's value remains limited to PPR leagues. Both of their stats will regress once Young resumes playing more.
While San Francisco is not an easy matchup for opposing skill-position players, Matthew Stafford owners can take solace in the fact that he'll likely be firing off pass attempts early and often. The Niners' shutdown run defense forces offenses to resort to the air, and the Lions are already the NFL's pass-happiest team. Chalk up Stafford's three-pick first half against the Rams as a bump in the road. Stafford gathered himself to complete 15-of-24 second-half passes for 182 yards and a touchdown, avoiding picks and leading his team to a come-from-behind victory. ... Kevin Smith isn't going to have Week 2 rushing success -- no one does against the 49ers -- but he's different from Week 1 Niners opponent Cedric Benson in that Smith plays in the passing game. He can buoy his weekly workloads and statistics with catches and receiving yards. Smith is just a flex play in standard leagues, but he should stay in PPR lineups. Smith was targeted six times in the opener, catching four for 29 yards and a touchdown. He also gets goal-line carries, which can be another week-saving quality.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27, Lions 20
Monday Night Football
Denver @ Atlanta
The 51-point over-under on Broncos-Falcons is tied for the highest of Week 2, and it's a sensible projection. Vegas has regained full confidence in Peyton Manning, who stands to benefit from Atlanta's year-ending loss of top cornerback Brent Grimes (Achilles'). Although Manning has lost something off his fastball, he still controls the game in the pre-snap phase, dictating favorable matchups even before plays start, and gets rid of the ball quickly enough to compensate for pass-protection leakage. He's also armed with one big-time, playmaking receiver (Demaryius Thomas) and a slippery, precision route runner (Eric Decker). Perhaps Manning will fade as his age-36 season moves along, but I'm starting him as an elite QB1 against the shorthanded Falcons. ... Due to this game's high-scoring projection, indoor environment, and battle of two high-octane, up-tempo offenses, both Thomas and Decker are top-18 fantasy receiver plays. Decker got all the preseason hype, but Thomas got just as many Week 1 targets and more than doubled Decker's box-score production. Look for Thomas to dominate Falcons RCB Dunta Robinson on Monday night. Decker will draw more of LCB Asante Samuel in coverage. I like Thomas' matchup better.
Willis McGahee has never been a passing-game weapon and Manning's offenses are historically pass heavy. So I found it promising that McGahee played 41-of-59 (69 percent) Week 1 snaps while Knowshon Moreno (16) and Lance Ball (2) were mixed in relatively sparingly. McGahee had little rushing success against Pittsburgh's stout defense, but should find more room Monday night against an Atlanta group that surrendered 152 yards and two TDs on 33 Week 1 carries (4.61 YPC) against the Chiefs. McGahee has early-season juice in his 31-year-old legs and is a solid bet for a touchdown. He's a quality RB2/flex. ... In the opener at least, Jacob Tamme appeared to be Manning's clear No. 3 pass option while Brandon Stokley and Joel Dreessen battled for scraps at the bottom of the totem pole. Tamme finished with five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown, securing each of the balls thrown his way and playing 49-of-59 snaps. I'm not bullish on Tamme as a season-long TE1, but he played well in the first game and this offense can support three fantasy-relevant pass catchers. He can be a top-12 fantasy tight end if he stays in front of Stokley and Dreessen.
Julio Jones has now played at least 40 snaps in 13 NFL games, and in them he's combined for 64 receptions, 1,158 yards, and ten TDs while averaging 17.7 yards per catch. In fantasy scoring per game, those numbers would extrapolate to third among 2011 receivers, behind only Calvin Johnson and Kenny Britt. If the Broncos "play sides" at cornerback as they did in last Sunday's win over Pittsburgh, Jones will avoid LCB Champ Bailey's coverage for most of this game, instead facing RCB Tracy Porter. Roddy White would match up more with Denver's shutdown cornerback. I like Julio to lead Atlanta in receiving for a second straight week. ... Matt Ryan attacked Chiefs fill-in LCB Jacques Reeves with relentless success in the opener. While Ryan won't have quite as weak an opposing corner to abuse on Monday night, Grimes' loss could actually end up working in his quarterback's fantasy favor. The Falcons will not be able to halt opposing passing games nearly as effectively in the post-Grimes era, and over their next five games square off with Peyton, Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, and Carson Palmer before a Week 7 bye. They're not going against Andy Dalton and Brandon Weeden. Ryan may have to keep slinging it "to keep up."
This same Denver defense surrendered four catches for 50 yards and a touchdown to Steelers TE Heath Miller in Week 1 on a slow night for Pittsburgh's pass game. Tony Gonzalez reasserted himself as the Falcons' No. 3 receiving option by ranking third on the team in Week 1 targets (6), catches (5), and yards (53), also scoring on a seven-yard throw from Ryan. Gonzo will offer low-end TE1 appeal propped up by Atlanta's more aggressive new plan of attack. He's staying well ahead of Harry Douglas in the competition for leftovers behind Jones and White. ... Read our post-game recap blurb on Michael Turner (done by Wess) for all you need to know about the 30-year-old's Week 1 performance and outlook going forward. It's not and isn't going to be pretty. ... Jacquizz Rodgers remains a role player, seeing about 7-12 touches per game and perhaps in need of a Turner injury to be start-able in fantasy leagues. See if Rodgers' role grows on Monday night against an opponent who will be more competitive than the Chiefs were in Week 1. The Falcons are going to need to make backfield changes because Turner is slowing down the team.
Score Prediction: Falcons 30, Broncos 28