Turn on Your Hartline
Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Tight EndsGreg Olsen, Panthers - Dropped by impatient owners after a disappointing Week 2, Olsen is owned in roughly half of Yahoo leagues. He’s caught at least six passes in three of four games and has led the Panthers in targets in each of the past two. Olsen’s season has gone exactly expected, picking up extra snaps and targets with
Jeremy Shockey out of the picture. Only four tight ends have caught more than Olsen’s 20 receptions so far. Keep in mind, however, that Olsen has a tough matchup versus the Seahawks before the Week 6 bye.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Scott Chandler, Bills - Chandler is expected to be “fine” after exiting last week’s game with a head injury. Through four games, only
Tony Gonzalez,
Rob Gronkowski,
Vernon Davis, and
Jimmy Graham have more fantasy points. Chandler started out hot last year, as well, before fading in October. Although expectations should be kept low, Chandler does have a shot at double-digit scores as
Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite red-zone target.
Recommendation: Should be owned in touchdown-heavy leagues.
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - Lewis has just nine targets through four games, which is a head-scratcher considering he’s been running more routes and blocking less this season. For desperate owners, it’s worth noting that Lewis draws the Bears, Raiders, and Lions -- three of the six most generous defenses to opposing fantasy tight ends -- in three of the next five weeks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - This is purely a deep league recommendation for those desperate owners with
Jason Witten or
Brandon Pettigrew on bye. Fasano has caught five passes in each of the past two games, totaling 15 targets versus the Jets and Cardinals. He’s due to find the end zone against a Bengals defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Team DefenseVikings - The Vikings were supposed to be in rebuilding mode. Instead they’re tied for the NFC North lead after holding a pair of 2011 playoff teams to 13 points apiece the past two weeks. Minnesota has a home game this week versus a Titans team that has been a trainwreck
through four games.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Rams - The strength of the Rams’ team is the young defensive line.
Chris Long and
Robert Quinn have a home game against a Cardinals offensive line that surrendered eight sacks and 17 QB hurries versus the Dolphins in Week 4.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
“Let it shine wherever you go.” Yes, this week’s column title comes from the 1982 hit song by the Jewish Elvis inspired by the movie E.T. Better trivia: Did you know British reggae group UB40’s 1980s smash Red Red Wine was actually a cover of Neil Diamond’s 1968 hit?
OK, back to football. Can you believe Brian Hartline became the 16th player since the NFL-AFL merger to top the 250-yard receiving mark? Hartline couldn’t believe it himself.
Is he here to stay as a fantasy stud? As Grantland’s Bill Barnwell points out, the other 15 receivers to accomplish the feat went on to meaningful careers -- with one exception. Redskins receiver-returner Anthony Allen’s 255-yard performance represented one-third of his career receiver yards, but that game was marred by replacement players during the 1987 strike.
Hartline may not a dynamic talent, but that has not stopped other players from emerging as volume-based fantasy stars. Hartline now has 100-yard performances in two of the past three weeks. Only Dwayne Bowe and Victor Cruz (49) have more targets this season than Hartline’s 48. His 455 yards lead all NFL receivers.
Hartline isn’t going to be a touchdown monster in Miami’s subpar offense like Miles Austin was after his 250-yard breakout performance three years ago, but the yards and receptions should stay relatively consistent. If I had a need at receiver, I would use the No. 1 waiver priority on Hartline this week.
**If Rashard Mendenhall and Greg Zuerlein are available, be sure to pick them up this week. It’s laughable to suggest, as Peter King did Monday, that Zuerlein has been a more valuable rookie than Robert Griffin III, but the “Legatron” has been a dynamite fantasy kicker. He’s the first kicker in NFL history to drill a pair of kicks of at least 58 yards in the same game.
The rookie from Missouri Western State, also known as “Greg the Leg” and “Young G.Z.” threatens to shatter the record for kicker nicknames.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 5. Full write-ups of each player are below.
Wide Receivers
Brian Hartline
James Jones
Domenik Hixon
Andre Roberts
Leonard Hankerson
Davone Bess
Justin Blackmon
Jerome Simpson
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Hasselbeck
Kevin Kolb
Brandon Weeden
Running Backs
Brandon Bolden
LeGarrette Blount
Jackie Battle
Bilal Powell
Lamar Miller
Ronnie Hillman
Joique Bell
William Powell
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen
Scott Chandler
Marcedes Lewis
Anthony Fasano
Team Defense
Rams
Vikings
Wide Receiver
Brian Hartline, Dolphins - Hartline leads the NFL in receiving yards and is just one target away from tying for the league lead. He’s fifth in fantasy points at the quarter-season mark. Hartline isn’t a dynamic enough talent to flirt with double-digit touchdowns, but the volume is going to be there for a 1,000-yard season as Ryan Tannehill’s No. 1 receiver. Pick him up and plug him in as a WR3 the rest of the way. Hartline has an inviting matchup against the Bengals banged-up secondary in Week 5.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
James Jones, Packers - Greg Jennings may shut it down for a week or two after aggravating his groin injury versus the Saints, leaving Jones as the starter opposite Jordy Nelson. Jones flunked his previous starting assignment versus the Bears in Week 2, but has been a top-25 fantasy receiver through four games. Jones is a legit WR3 option versus a Colts secondary that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers thus far.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Domenik Hixon, Giants - Hixon had 11 targets to Ramses Barden’s four versus the Eagles and won the snap-count battle 62-43. The Giants don’t sound confident about Hakeem Nicks’ availability for a dream matchup versus the Browns in Week 5. Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback Joe Haden is suspended for one more week. In the meantime, the Browns secondary has been toasted, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Andre Roberts, Cardinals - Leading all receivers in touchdowns, Roberts is seventh in fantasy points at the quarter-season mark. The Arizona coaches love his work ethic and believe he has similarities to Hines Ward. Roberts isn’t going to keep scoring touchdowns on a weekly basis, but he will have a chance to remain on the WR3 radar with Larry Fitzgerald drawing constant double teams.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Davone Bess, Dolphins - After a mediocre showing in the first two games, Bess has turned 19 targets into 12 receptions and 209 yards the past two weeks. He’s not going to get in the end zone, but it’s reassuring that Ryan Tannehill has progressed enough to put Bess back on the PPR-league radar.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Leonard Hankerson, Redskins - Pierre Garcon returned to his “X” spot, but Hankerson started over Josh Morgan as the “Z” receiver and led the team with 11 targets versus the Bucs. Hank Time went over the middle without fear and separated from defensive backs while gaining RGIII’s trust. He should be locked in as the starter opposite Garcon going forward.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Justin Blackmon, Jaguars - Blackmon caught six passes in Week 4 after combining for just four in his first three games. It’s worth noting the Bengals were playing without both starting cornerbacks, but it’s still encouraging to see Blackmon finally getting open. With Laurent Robinson coming off concussions in back-to-back games, Blackmon should be locked in as the No. 1 receiver for the foreseeable future. Pick him up in deeper leagues if he was dropped after the slow start.
Recommendation: Worth a look if he was dropped.
Jerome Simpson, Vikings - We suspected that OC Bill Musgrave would dial up Simpson early and often in Week 4 to put a vertical threat on tape for opposing defenses. The result was two pass interference penalties and a team-leading 50 yards versus the Lions. This offense will continue to run through Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, leaving Simpson as an inconsistent deep threat.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Watch List: Vincent Brown, Michael Floyd, T.J. Graham, Chaz Schilens
Eligible to return in Week 7, Brown (ankle) is worth a look in deeper leagues. … Floyd quietly racked up eight targets while Andre Roberts blew up. … Fellow rookie Graham also saw eight targets in Week 4. Make him do it again. … Schilens will pick up playing time with Santonio Holmes out of the lineup.
Cut Bait: Dexter McCluster, Golden Tate
McCluster has just 66 yards in three games since his 82-yard performance in the opener. He’s losing looks to Jon Baldwin. … Tate was a one-game wonder, as suspected.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills - Still unowned in more than half of Yahoo leagues, Fitzpatrick leads the NFL in touchdown passes and is fifth in fantasy points at the quarter-season mark. He’s on pace for 48 touchdowns, 28 interceptions and just over 3,700 passing yards. Just beware that the annual late-season swoon could arrive early with daunting matchups versus the 49ers, Cardinals and Texans in three of the next four games.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Matt Hasselbeck, Titans - Jake Locker won’t play this week and could miss several games with a twice-dislocated left shoulder. Hasselbeck has severe arm strength limitations at this point in his career, precluding QB1 consideration even with the Titans added weaponry this season. He’s only an option in deeper leagues heading into a Week 5 matchup versus an improved Vikings defense.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins - How about that Tannehill-to-Hartline connection? Willing to throw Hartline open, Tannehill shattered Dan Marino’s single-game passing yardage by a rookie. Tannehill can make all throws, moves well in the pocket, and is willing to take shots down the field. Although he tossed a pair of sloppy interceptions, it’s impressive that Tannehill moved the offense up and down the field against one of the NFL’s top defenses. As with all rookie quarterbacks, inconsistency should be expected.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Kevin Kolb, Cardinals - Coming off his second 300-yard game and first three-touchdown effort with the Cardinals, Kolb is 11th among quarterbacks in fantasy points over the past three weeks. The offensive line remains a red flag, but Kolb has the receivers to maintain value in deeper leagues. As long as he keeps churning out wins versus the Rams, Bills, and Vikings, his job is secure.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Brandon Weeden, Browns - The rookie’s arm is legit, but his two 300-yard outings in four weeks are a bit misleading. He still struggles mightily versus the pressure, and neither the Bengals nor the Ravens were able to get in his face. Weeden’s numbers have been padded in comeback mode. He can be picked up in deeper leagues, but know that he’s a faceplant waiting to happen most weeks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Cut Bait: Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez
Wilson’s preseason success hasn’t carried over. He’s essentially been Tebow West through four games. … What was the preseason over/under on Tebow replacing Sanchez? The Jets offense is a dumpster fire, as expected. Sanchez can’t be trusted with Santonio Holmes out of the lineup.
Running Backs
Brandon Bolden, Patriots - A week after vulturing a goal-line series from Stevan Ridley, Bolden touched the ball 17 times for 148 yards versus the Bills. His previous high was five carries versus the Titans in garbage time. In other words, Bolden’s increased role came out of the blue. This is New England, so Bolden’s role will depend on game plan, matchups, momentum and the whims of Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. He’s worth adding in 12-team leagues, but it’s clear that he’s behind Stevan Ridley on the depth chart. The Pats won’t rush 40 times for 250 yards again the rest of the season.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers - Blount had his biggest role of the season in Week 4, taking over as the clear red-zone back in power situations. Rookie Doug Martin is the better all-around player, but Blount has shown more play-making ability in two straight games. There’s a chance that his role could grow at Martin’s expense.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Jackie Battle, Chargers - The takeaway from last week’s game wasn’t that Battle started and scored two touchdowns. Ryan Mathews will soon be back in the driver’s seat because there’s a chasm of difference in talent between the two backs. The Chargers made their point to Mathews, and signs out of San Diego suggest he will resume lead-back duties versus the Saints this week. The upshot is that Battle could be here to stay as the red-zone back, as the Bolts want to use Mathews in lower-level situations. Battle’s only value is in touchdown-heavy leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in touchdown-heavy leagues.
Bilal Powell, Jets - Playing from behind, Powell was on the field for 32 snaps compared to Shonn Greene’s 18 in Week 4. The Jets were already struggling to move the ball, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry on first down. With Santonio Holmes (foot), their biggest offensive playmaker out, Powell and Greene will see more stacked boxes going forward. Powell is worthy of a roster spot to see if his role continues to grow, but he shouldn’t be near starting lineups at this point.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins - Coach Joe Philbin indicated that his No. 2 back will decided by game plan going forward. Miller is more talented than Daniel Thomas but still struggles in pass protection. Neither back will have value unless Reggie Bush misses extended action with an injury. Bush appeared to emerge from Week 4 with his knee in good shape.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Joique Bell, Lions - The Lions like Bell in the “game-closer” four-minute role as well as the no-huddle, two-minute drill back. Don’t be misled by his 72 yards on six receptions in Week 4, though. The Vikings sat back in prevent defense, allowing Matthew Stafford to dump off to Bell while taking away the receivers downfield. Bell has a bye in Week 5.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper PPR leagues.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos - The rookie picked up extra carries in a blowout victory, showing a better burst than his 3.1 YPC would indicate. Lance Ball still played more snaps, however, and the two would likely form a committee along with Knowshon Moreno if Willis McGahee goes down with an injury.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
William Powell, Cardinals - The NFL’s preseason rushing leader actually played more snaps than Ryan Williams in Week 4, taking over in the no-huddle offense. Powell could stumble onto PPR-league value if things break right with Beanie Wells (turf toe) out of the lineup, but it’s more likely that he sees just a handful of touches per game as Williams’ backup.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Watch List: Jahvid Best, Bernard Pierce
The Lions have yet to announce that Best has been cleared for contact, but the tentative expectation is that he will be available when eligible in Week 8. … Pierce is Ray Rice’s clear handcuff entering the bye-week gauntlet.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen, Panthers - Dropped by impatient owners after a disappointing Week 2, Olsen is owned in roughly half of Yahoo leagues. He’s caught at least six passes in three of four games and has led the Panthers in targets in each of the past two. Olsen’s season has gone exactly expected, picking up extra snaps and targets with Jeremy Shockey out of the picture. Only four tight ends have caught more than Olsen’s 20 receptions so far. Keep in mind, however, that Olsen has a tough matchup versus the Seahawks before the Week 6 bye.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Scott Chandler, Bills - Chandler is expected to be “fine” after exiting last week’s game with a head injury. Through four games, only Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Vernon Davis, and Jimmy Graham have more fantasy points. Chandler started out hot last year, as well, before fading in October. Although expectations should be kept low, Chandler does have a shot at double-digit scores as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s favorite red-zone target.
Recommendation: Should be owned in touchdown-heavy leagues.
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - Lewis has just nine targets through four games, which is a head-scratcher considering he’s been running more routes and blocking less this season. For desperate owners, it’s worth noting that Lewis draws the Bears, Raiders, and Lions -- three of the six most generous defenses to opposing fantasy tight ends -- in three of the next five weeks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Anthony Fasano, Dolphins - This is purely a deep league recommendation for those desperate owners with Jason Witten or Brandon Pettigrew on bye. Fasano has caught five passes in each of the past two games, totaling 15 targets versus the Jets and Cardinals. He’s due to find the end zone against a Bengals defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Team Defense
Vikings - The Vikings were supposed to be in rebuilding mode. Instead they’re tied for the NFC North lead after holding a pair of 2011 playoff teams to 13 points apiece the past two weeks. Minnesota has a home game this week versus a Titans team that has been a trainwreck
through four games.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Rams - The strength of the Rams’ team is the young defensive line. Chris Long and Robert Quinn have a home game against a Cardinals offensive line that surrendered eight sacks and 17 QB hurries versus the Dolphins in Week 4.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with
Rotoworld and his third year contributing to
NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter
@ChrisWesseling.
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Chris Wesseling