Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 5 Target Watch: AFC

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Indianapolis Colts


Reggie Wayne: 18-7-15 (40), Donnie Avery: 8-10-9 (27), Coby Fleener: 10-4-2 (16), T.Y. Hilton: dnp-1-8 (9), Kris Adams: 4-3-1 (8), Dwayne Allen: 0-1-6 (7), Mewelde Moore: 1-2-1 (4), Donald Brown: 2-0-1 (3), Vick Ballard: 0-1-0 (1), Austin Collie: dnp-dnp-1 (1), LaVon Brazill: 1-dnp-0 (1)


Trying to figure out who the number two receiver for the Colts is has been a bit of a work in progress. Donnie Avery stepped up with Austin Collie out, but this week it was T.Y. Hilton. So let’s take a look at the snaps to see what we can see.


Avery was on the field for 79 plays, including 53 pass plays to Hilton’s 40 plays, including 34 pass plays. They both had a good chunk of targets, nine and eight respectively, but Hilton had the one big touchdown play.


With Collie out for the season, it pretty much comes down to Avery and Hilton. Hilton showed a lot in preseason, but Avery has proven himself as well this season. If the snaps stay the same, Avery should be the guy to own.


The tight end situation is getting cloudier by the day. Coby Fleener started the season with double digit targets, six receptions and 82 yards. It’s been all downhill from there.  Last week it was Dwayne Allen’s turn for targets and snaps. Allen was on the field for 60 plays, 30 of them passing, to Fleener’s 43, 22 of them passing.


Coming into the season I thought we would see something like this from the get-go, but when we didn’t, I had to assume Fleener was going to be the guy. It may be a knee-jerk reaction, but I like Allen more this preseason and I’m ready to switch them out.


Donald Brown is still the main running back in Colt land, so Vick Ballard’s value remains pretty non-existent. But Brown is not going to give you consistent production in this pass first offense. In the red zone the Colts are nearly the exact opposite of the Texans, passing 70% of the time.



Jacksonville Jaguars


Justin Blackmon: 6-4-5-10 (25), Laurent Robinson: 9-6-1-1 (17), Cecil Shorts: 7-2-2-5 (16), Maurice Jones-Drew: 5-3-2-5 (15), Greg Jones: 2-1-3-4 (10), Mike Thomas: 1-3-3-2 (9), Marcedes Lewis: 5-0-1-3 (9), Montell Owens: 3-0-0-0 (3), Zach Potter: 0-2-0-0 (2), Rashad Jennings: 1-dnp-dnp-1 (2)


There’s always hope it seems, but the hope is fading on the Jaguars 2012 “fantasy passing attack.” Justin Blackmon saw 10 targets, catching six for 48 yards and no touchdowns. If Gabbert had thrown him 20 passes he would have caught 12 for 96 yards! Blackmon will get into the end zone at some point and get people’s waiver wire hopes up, but then it will take him a month or two to get into the end zone again.


Maurice Jones-Drew is your only hope.



Kansas City Chiefs


Dwayne Bowe: 6-15-16-12 (49), Dexter McCluster: 10-5-4-4 (23), Tony Moeaki: 6-4-3-4 (17), Jamaal Charles: 0-4-8-4 (16), Jon Baldwin: 0-6-4-5 (15), Shaun Draughn: 2-2-3-5 (12), Steve Breaston: 4-1-3-1 (9), Peyton Hillis: 3-3-1-dnp (7), Kevin Boss: 2-1-dnp-dnp (3), Cyrus Gray: dnp-dnp-0-1 (1)


Matt Cassel is trying to hold off Brady Quinn. That tells you what you need to know about the Chiefs passing offense right now. The good news is that Dwayne Bowe is averaging over 12 targets a game. That’s probably bad for the Chiefs winning games, but good for fantasy owners who don’t want to guess as to who will get targets.


Jamaal Charles looked like a dumpster fire had relations with a tire fire after his second fumble on the day, but he emerged from the toxic smoke to do what he does, and that is be awesome. He finished the day with 115 total yards and two touchdowns. His target numbers are staying at four or above, and I don’t see any reason they should fall.


The loss of Kevin Boss leaves a door open for Tony Moeaki to make some noise, but he’ll have to yell pretty loud before he is on my team.



Miami Dolphins


Brian Hartline: 8-12-9-19 (48), Davone Bess: 7-6-7-12 (32), Anthony Fasano: 5-3-10-5 (23), Reggie Bush: 6-4-1-1 (12), Anthony Armstrong: 3-dnp-6-0 (9), Daniel Thomas: 3-dnp-2-1 (6), Charles Clay: 1-3-0-1 (5), Legedu Naanee: 2-1-0-2 (5), Jorvorskie Lane: 1-0-1-0 (2)


We all know what Brian Hartline did last week and his 19 targets are just as eye popping as his real numbers. As long as he’s averaging over ten targets a game there’s no reason he won’t have fantasy value the rest of the season, especially with Ryan Tannehill catching up with NFL speed.


Davone Bess had his third 100 yard game in his career. He didn’t hit 100 yards all last season. But of course those numbers were with some pretty lame quarterbacks. Tannehill’s development will dictate if Bess will have any value going forward and I think it’s still too early. Hartline looks like the only receiver I’d want on my team.


Reggie Bush was still feeling some pain in his knee last week, but saw the majority of the time on the field. After him it was a three-headed Dolphin named Jorvorskie Thomas Lamar.  Jorvorskie looks like he’s working on his touchdown vulture dance, which could end up hurting Reggie Bush. Daniel Thomas remains without much skill and Lamar Miller is the back with the highest ceiling, but lowest number of meaningful touches.



New England Patriots


Brandon Lloyd: 8-13-12-7 (40), Wes Welker: 5-11-10-11 (37), Rob Gronkowski: 6-9-3-11 (29), Julian Edelman: 2-6-7-dnp (15), Stevan Ridley: 3-4-1-0 (8), Aaron Hernandez: 7-1-dnp-dnp (8), Danny Woodhead: 0-1-2-2 (5), Deion Branch: dnp-dnp-3-0 (3), Kellen Winslow: dnp-dnp-2-dnp (2), Shane Vereen: dnp-dnp-dnp-2 (2), Daniel Fells: dnp-dnp-0-2 (2), Michael Hoomanawanui: 0-0-1-0 (1), Brandon Bolden: 0-0-0-1 (1)


When the season started all us fantasy pundits were trying to decipher what receivers would get what and hoped that Stevan Ridley would get enough goal line opportunities to stay fantasy relevant. Now we are all just winging it.


Last week there were plenty of fantasy points to go around. The Patriots ended up with three receiving touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns along with 340 yards passing and 247 yards rushing.  That is impressive.


After getting down early Brady and company methodically dismantled the Bills defense in every possible aspect. The three receivers, Welker, Gronkowski and Lloyd are safe bets each week, but Stevan Ridley’s fortunes rest in Bill Belichick’s hands. Ridley was on the field for 34 snaps to Bolden’s 26, Woodhead’s 10 and Vereen’s 8.


His situation is dicey in Belichick’s backfield, but so far Ridley is the only somewhat consistent fantasy option. Until that changes, he’s the only guy I’d feel safe starting.


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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham

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