Chet Gresham

Targets and Touches

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Week 6 Target Watch: AFC

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Welcome to the AFC Target Watch for Week 6. You will find targety information to sedate the greatest of target beasts. For your dose of NFC targets, bang it here.


But before we get to that, let’s look at some stats that you will find to be statistical and not very whimsical. Below are the running backs with two or more runs inside the five yard line and how many touchdowns they have from those runs.

Touchdown Percentage Inside the Five

Player Att TDs TD%   Player Att TDs TD%   Player Att TDs TD%
Jorvorskie Lane 2 2 100%   Daniel Thomas 4 2 50%   Shonn Greene 4 1 25%
Michael Bush 4 3 75%   Frank Gore 6 3 50%   BenJarvus Green-Ellis 4 1 25%
Alfred Morris 3 2 67%   Willis McGahee 7 3 43%   Ahmad Bradshaw 4 1 25%
Andre Brown 5 3 60%   Kendall Hunter 3 1 33%   Tashard Choice 2 0 0%
Isaac Redman 2 1 50%   Ray Rice 3 1 33%   Rashad Jennings 2 0 0%
Mark Ingram 2 1 50%   Brandon Bolden 3 1 33%   Reggie Bush 2 0 0%
Joique Bell 2 1 50%   Arian Foster 9 3 33%   Lance Ball 2 0 0%
C.J. Spiller 2 1 50%   Jackie Battle 9 3 33%   Ryan Williams 3 0 0%
Marshawn Lynch 2 1 50%   Adrian Peterson 7 2 29%   Darren McFadden 3 0 0%
Kevin Smith 2 1 50%   Michael Turner 4 1 25%   Bryce Brown 3 0 0%
Ben Tate 2 1 50%   DeAngelo Williams 4 1 25%   Steven Jackson 3 0 0%
Stevan Ridley 4 2 50%   LeSean McCoy 4 1 25%   Doug Martin 4 0 0%

Baltimore Ravens


Anquan Boldin: 5-4-7-12-10 (38), Dennis Pitta: 9-15-7-2-4 (37), Ray Rice: 4-10-5-11-3 (33), Torrey Smith: 3-5-10-10-4 (32), Jacoby Jones: 3-2-4-7-2 (18), Vonta Leach: 3-1-3-2-2 (11), Ed Dickson: 3-4-2-0-1 (10), Tandon Doss: 0-1-0-2-1 (4), Deonte Thompson: 2-0-0-0-0 (2), Bernard Pierce: 0-0-1-0-0 (1)


The Ravens' bout with the Chiefs was a clunker on many fronts, including the target front. Anquan Boldin was the target hog and caught four of 10 targets for 82 yards and it was all downhill from there.


Torrey Smith had four targets and caught three of them, but that isn’t nearly enough. We saw the prior two weeks versus New England and Cleveland that Smith is a playmaker, but you have to get him the ball so he can make plays. He should not be fourth on this target list. I have a feeling the Chiefs game will open the coaching staff’s eyes to how badly they need to get Smith involved.


Ray Rice still gets it done no matter how the game is going, so no need to worry about him.



Buffalo Bills


Steve Johnson: 10-5-11-10-10 (46), Scott Chandler: 6-5-4-8-6 (29), Donald Jones: 7-3-6-3-4 (23), T.J. Graham: dnp-1-5-8-3 (17), C.J. Spiller: 3-3-2-2-1 (11), Tashard Choice: 0-1-5-1-dnp (7), David Nelson: 5-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (5), Fred Jackson: 0-dnp-dnp-3-1 (4), Brad Smith: dnp-1-0-2-1 (4), Dorin Dickerson: 0-0-dnp-2-dnp (2), Corey McIntyre: 0-0-2-0-0 (2), Lee Smith: 1-0-0-0-0 (1)


The Bills were run over in San Francisco and the stats bear witness. It’s not the easiest task to fly cross-country and play the 49ers, so I’m going to give them a pass here. Against lesser defenses, this offense can put up fantasy points, even if they are a bit sporadic.


Stevie Johnson hasn’t topped 61 yards receiving this season, which is disappointing, but he had scored a touchdown in his first three games, which was keeping him relevant. He then faced New England, who always tries their hardest to take away the opponent’s best receiver and then San Francisco, who just steamrolled them. I’ll take this as a momentary lull, but it would be nice to see those yardage numbers shoot up some.


The Bills running backs once again split snaps about equally, with C.J. Spiller handling 24 and Fred Jackson 22. Against lesser opponents, both will have flex appeal, but it will be tough to start them against top run defenses.



Cincinnati Bengals


A.J. Green: 11-12-11-9-13 (56), Andrew Hawkins: 9-3-4-3-13 (32), Jermaine Gresham: 8-5-7-5-6 (31), Armon Binns: 5-5-3-5-6 (24), BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 2-3-1-3-2 (11), Brandon Tate: 2-3-0-0-1 (6), Brian Leonard: 0-0-1-1-2 (4), Orson Charles: 0-0-1-1-0 (2), Chris Pressley: 0-0-0-2-0 (2), Marvin Jones: 0-0-dnp-2-dnp (2)


It looks like Miami’s defense might be more than just their run stoppers. Andy Dalton was picked twice and only threw one touchdown on 43 attempts. His two best receivers, A.J. Green and Andrew Hawkins, both saw 13 targets and Green barely eked out his normal stud-like game, while Hawkins only caught six of the 13.  The good news is that he did target his two best receivers a bunch. We knew that about Green, but Hawkins saw a big bump in targets. Let’s hope that continues.


Bernard Scott came off an injury to just get injured again, but during that window, he shone a light on just how mediocre BenJarvus Green-Ellis is. We keep beating this lame Law Firm, but it’s true that his longest run over his last 26 games is 19 yards. That’s just not what you want from your starting running back or your fake starting running back.



Cleveland Browns


Trent Richardson: 3-5-7-6-7 (28), Greg Little: 4-7-4-10-2 (27), Josh Gordon: 4-3-6-1-8 (22), Ben Watson: 2-1-8-6-3 (20), Jordan Norwood: dnp-dnp-dnp-10-9 (19), Mohamed Massaquoi: 8-7-3-dnp-dnp (18), Chris Ogbonnaya: dnp-6-3-4-4 (17), Jordan Cameron: 1-0-7-6-2 (16), Travis Benjamin: 6-0-4-5-dnp (15), Alex Smith: 1-4-dnp-dnp-dnp (5), Josh Cribbs: 0-2-1-2-0 (5), Brandon Jackson: 4-dnp-dnp-dnp-dnp (4), Owen Marecic: 2-1-0-0-0 (3)


Holy targets Trent Richardson. He is TRich for reals (Target Rich, just nod and I’ll keep moving). His 28 targets leads the team and he’s third in the league for running backs in targets and receptions as well as fourth in receiving yards and that was after getting off to a bit of a slow start.


And even then, he hasn’t been used as much as he could be with Chris Ogbonnaya coming in on a lot of third downs, but that even looks like it will change starting this week. If he is truly on the field for every down, just slot him as a top-five back going forward.


Josh Gordon had a huge game against the Giants and if you were to only look at his targets, yardage and touchdowns, you’d be on your way to picking him up, but unfortunately, he only caught two of his eight targets, which both went for long touchdowns. I say unfortunately because that is a tough stat line to sustain. The good news though, is that you can count on him getting the start again if Mohamed Massaquoi, Travis Benjamin, and Jordan Norwood are out against the Bengals.



Denver Broncos


Demaryius Thomas: 7-11-11-6-11 (46), Eric Decker: 7-8-11-9-8 (43), Jacob Tamme: 5-4-10-6-11 (36), Brandon Stokley: 3-6-6-2-3 (20), Willis McGahee: 1-2-2-6-6 (17), Joel Dreessen: 2-2-5-3-4 (16), Lance Ball: 0-2-3-2-0 (7), Ronnie Hillman: dnp-dnp-1-2-1 (4), Matthew Willis: 1-1-1-dnp-0 (3), Andre Caldwell: dnp-dnp-dnp-1-0 (1), Chris Gronkowski: 0-0-1-0-0 (1)


You can always tell a solid passing attack by the consistency of targets, and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are nothing if not consistent in target land. With Manning throwing them the ball you can feel safe running them out there every week.


The tight end situation is a little riskier. Jacob Tamme saw a ton of targets and caught six for 50 yards, but Joel Dreessen has been getting the touchdowns of late. That can be seen in their red zone targets over the last three weeks. Tamme has one to Dreessen’s four even though Tamme leads in overall targets, 27 to 12.


The running back job is still Willis McGahee’s, even though he had two costly gaffes in the fourth quarter of the New England game. Ronnie Hillman still has a ways to go before he’ll have the trust of John Fox.



Houston Texans


Owen Daniels: 8-9-5-6-5 (33), Andre Johnson: 10-4-4-6-6 (30), Kevin Walter: 2-4-6-3-6 (21), James Casey: 2-4-3-5-5 (19), Arian Foster: 3-7-1-2-4 (17), Keshawn Martin: 1-2-4-3-0 (10), Ben Tate: 3-4-0-2-dnp (9), Garrett Graham: 0-1-4-1-0 (6), Lestar Jean: 2-0-1-dnp-dnp (3)


Andre Johnson has two red zone targets all season, while Arian Foster has been targeted or ran the ball 33 times inside the red zone. That is a bit of a discrepancy. Add that to Johnson dropping some passes this season and I can see why his owners might be a little worried. Is it time to trade him away? I’m never one to trade away talented players at low points, so no, but I’m not going to expect consistently huge numbers going forward.


Owen Daniels has topped 70 yards his last two games and found the end zone in each of his last three. If they aren’t running the ball with Foster as they close in on the end zone, they are most likely throwing it to Daniels. He’s not going to score a touchdown each week, but he has a better chance than a lot of tight ends whose teams don’t get close to the end zone all that often.


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Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
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