No Free Fall for Felix
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Wide ReceiversDonnie Avery, Colts - A player with 8+ targets in every game should be owned in more than 15 percent of Yahoo leagues. Avery hasn’t made plays with any kind of consistency, but his 47 targets are in the top-25 among NFL receivers. With
Joe Haden shadowing
Reggie Wayne this week, Avery could be a sneaky matchup play against a defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Stephen Hill, Jets - Returning from a hamstring injury, Hill played just 18 snaps versus the Colts, posting a 3/23/1 line. With another week to get closer to full health, Hill will soon vie with
Jeremy Kerley for the No. 1 receiver role on a team likely to rack up garbage-time production the rest of the way. Hill is a risk/reward fantasy play against a Patriots defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Josh Gordon, Browns - The rookie has shown the ability to sprint past defenders on go routes with a pair of deep touchdowns the past two weeks. The matchup is right this week against a Colts defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, but keep expectations fairly low going forward. Gordon has yet to catch more than three passes in a game and was targeted on just four of
Brandon Weeden’s 29 attempts in Week 6.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Chris Givens, Rams - The speedy rookie has pulled off the rare feat of hauling in a catch of at least 50 yards in three consecutive games. Givens has led Rams receivers in snaps in back-to-back games and offers more play-making ability than fellow starter
Brandon Gibson. While we can't count on a deep touchdown every week, Givens is the Rams receiver with the most fantasy upside until
Danny Amendola (clavicle) returns.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Julian Edelman, Patriots - If the Patriots are following the
Aaron Hernandez pattern, Edelman (hand) should have a chance to play this week versus the Jets after returning to practice last week. He was playing in two-wide sets over
Wes Welker early in the season, though the latter’s streak of four consecutive 100-yard games likely cements his status as the No. 1 receiver. Edelman could pick up extra playing time, however, if
Brandon Lloyd’s shoulder injury causes him to miss time.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Santana Moss, Redskins - The Redskins are making an effort to increase Moss’ role with
Pierre Garcon hindered by a painful toe injury. His upside is low because the Redskins don’t have volume in the passing game, and Moss doesn’t play full-time snaps. As long as Garcon misses game action, though, Moss is the best bet to lead Redskins receivers in production.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Domenik Hixon, Giants - Back to full health, Hixon is locked in as the No. 3 receiver after making a series of tough catches at San Francisco in Week 6. With
Hakeem Nicks clearly playing at less than full strength, Hixon could be the second-most targeted receiver again in an ideal matchup versus a Redskins defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Devery Henderson, Saints - Henderson was coming off his first 100-yard game since Week 2 of the 2011 season as the Saints entered the bye week. Although
Lance Moore’s hamstring should be close to full health, we don’t have a good read on
Jimmy Graham’s ankle sprain. If either player misses practice this week, Henderson has value as a bye-week fill-in versus the Bucs.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week fill-in.
Watch List: Derek Hagan,
Brandon Gibson,
Mario Manningham,
Vincent BrownHold off on Hagan for now.
Darrius Heyward-Bey may have been held without a catch, but he led Raiders receivers in snaps at Atlanta. … I need to see Gibson do it again; he’s never been a playmaker. … Manningham’s Week 6 performance was fluky; the Giants concentrated on taking away
Vernon Davis and
Michael Crabtree, forcing Manningham and
Randy Moss to beat them. … Brown isn’t yet ready to practice and won’t play before Week 9. He’s an option only in deep leagues.
Cut Bait: Greg Little,
Titus Young,
Ramses Barden,
Rueben Randle,
Chaz SchilensArguably the NFL’s least effective starting receiver, Little has been held under 20 yards in four of six games. … Young may be just as bad, topping 20 yards just once all season. … Barden and Randle are afterthoughts in the offense as long as
Hakeem Nicks and
Domenik Hixon are healthy. … Schilens has fallen down the depth chart with
Stephen Hill back in the lineup.
It’s good to be Felix. Austrian daredevil skydiver Felix Baumgartner spent Sunday defying death with a 24-mile free fall reaching Mach 1.24, or 833.9 mph. After his balloon reached the top of the world at 128,100 feet, Baumgartner became the first person to break the sound barrier without benefit of a vehicle.
While that Felix made news as our latest standard bearer in the eternal human crusade of curiosity and exploration, the earth-bound Cowboys’ Felix was gutting the once-vaunted Ravens defense for 105 yards and a score on 19 touches.
Jones is just now returning to form after missing the offseason following shoulder surgery. Since failing his conditioning test at the onset of training camp, Jones has been accused of missing his burst and lateral movement, being a step or two slow, and even “running chunky, like he’s carrying something on his back.”
The burst and lateral movement finally made a reappearance on Jones’ 22-yard tackle-breaking touchdown.
Owner/GM Jerry Jones announced Tuesday morning that the ligament damage in DeMarco Murray’s foot will keep him out of this week’s game at Carolina, and there’s concern that it could be a multi-week absence. Felix steps in as a top-15 fantasy option for Week 7 against a defense that has been gashed by the likes of Andre Brown, Pierre Thomas and Michael Turner. Through six weeks, the Panthers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.
As much grief as Jones takes in fantasy circles, it’s worth noting that he’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry through five seasons to go with above-average receiving skills. Although Jones’ injury history leaves him as a week-to-week fantasy asset as opposed to a stable investment, this week’s matchup is such that he merits the No. 1 waiver spot.
On to the players. Here is how I rank the top players at each position as we head into Week 7. Full write-ups of each player are below.
Running Backs
Felix Jones
Alex Green
David Wilson
William Powell
Daryl Richardson
Vick Ballard
Danny Woodhead
Montario Hardesty
Quarterbacks
Matt Hasselbeck
Josh Freeman
Brandon Weeden
Mark Sanchez
John Skelton
Wide Receivers
Donnie Avery
Stephen Hill
Josh Gordon
Chris Givens
Julian Edelman
Santana Moss
Domenik Hixon
Devery Henderson
Tight Ends
Scott Chandler
Dustin Keller
Tony Scheffler
David Thomas
Brandon Myers
Team Defense
Vikings
Patriots
Raiders
Running Backs
Felix Jones, Cowboys - After failing his training-camp conditioning test, Jones finally found his missing burst at Baltimore, totaling 105 yards and a touchdown in relief of an injured DeMarco Murray. Owner/GM Jerry Jones has already ruled out Murray for Week 7, leaving Jones as the starter against a Carolina defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. Should Murray miss closer to a month, Jones would draw the Giants, Falcons and Eagles in subsequent weeks. Our initial Week 7 rankings have Jones as a rock solid RB2 option.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
Alex Green, Packers - Green is owned in just half of Yahoo leagues, ostensibly because a significant percentage of owners believed James Starks would have a bigger role. Green was nearly an every-down back at Houston, and coach Mike McCarthy confirmed that he will remain the feature back moving forward. Green has decent matchups versus the Rams, Jags and Cardinals the next three weeks before the Week 10 bye. There’s borderline RB2 value here with the upside for more in a high-scoring offense.
Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues.
David Wilson, Giants - Wilson continues to flash difference-making explosion on kickoff returns and occasional offensive snaps. Ahmad Bradshaw may be the hottest back in the league at the moment, but he’s also a poor bet to stay healthy coming off the two highest carry totals of his career. Wilson appears to have leap-frogged Andre Brown as the Bradshaw handcuff on the Giants’ roster.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
William Powell, Cardinals - We recommended Powell over tiny scatback La’Rod Stephens-Howling last week, and the former out-rushed the latter 70-22 on a similar number of touches versus the Bills’ tissue-paper thin run defense. While Powell is certainly the back to own in Arizona, the sledding gets considerably tougher at Minnesota’s 11th-ranked run defense in Week 7. Expect Powell’s 5.4 YPC average to plummet in the coming weeks.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Daryl Richardson, Rams - If not for a 44-yard run on the second play from scrimmage, Richardson would have ended up with 32 yards on 10 carries at Miami. We suspect his increased role was game-plan specific as a way to beat the Dolphins’ top-ranked run defense with speed and shiftiness as opposed to Steven Jackson’s brute power. Although Richardson is emerging as one of the league’s more heavily involved backs, he’s not going to be a good bet for double digit touches on a weekly basis as long as Jackson is healthy.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Vick Ballard, Colts - Ballard never had a chance to establish a ground attack as the Week 6 starter because the Colts bailed on the run game after falling behind 14-3 in the second quarter. He and Mewelde Moore ended up splitting snaps equally, as the veteran is trusted as Andrew Luck’s protector in the no-huddle. Ballard has a better shot at 15-18 touches this week in a home game versus the Browns. Our initial rankings have Ballard ranked 28th among fantasy options for Week 7.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Danny Woodhead, Patriots - With either a touchdown or 70+ yards in four consecutive weeks, Woodhead is ranked a surprising 31st in fantasy points. Brandon Bolden’s (knee) status is up in the air for Week 7, which could mean a bigger role for Woodhead in an inviting matchup versus the Jets. He can be plugged in as a flex play in PPR leagues for those owners facing a bye-week crunch.
Recommendation: Worth a look in PPR leagues.
Montario Hardesty, Browns - Hardesty was solid if unspectacular in relief of Trent Richardson, totaling 65 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches versus the Bengals. Richardson’s rib cartilage injury is painful, but he’s tentatively expected to give it a go in a made-to-order matchup with the Colts this week. Richardson owners should think about rostering Hardesty as insurance against a late-week setback.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Watch List: Brandon Bolden, Peyton Hillis, Phillip Tanner, Johnny White, Robert Turbin, Mike Goodson, Cedric Peerman, Baron Batch, Delone Carter
Keep an eye on Bolden’s knee this week. He was outplaying Stevan Ridley early in Week 6 before the injury forced him out in the first half. … Hillis is expected to return after the Week 7 bye, though he’s only borderline roster-worthy with Jamaal Charles playing well. … Tanner is on the radar due to Felix Jones’ injury history. … A fifth-round pick out of North Carolina last season, White is a try-hard, one-cut runner taking Brandon Saine’s spot at the back end of Green Bay’s roster. … Turbin and Goodson are handcuffs. … Peerman is only worth a look in the deepest PPR leagues as the Bengals’ third-down back for Week 7. … Rashard Mendenhall has downplayed his Achilles injury, which means Batch is unlikely to have a major role. … Carter’s carries could increase if Ballard doesn’t show improvement.
Cut Bait: Jahvid Best, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jackie Battle, Kevin Smith, Shaun Draughn, La’Rod Stephens-Howling, Justin Forsett
Best’s upside in a best-case scenario was worth an add last week to see if he gained clearance to play football. Now that he’s faced with a worst-case scenario, he can be thrown back on the pile. … Rodgers’ role isn’t increasing, and it seems the Falcons have lost faith in him as a runner. He’s not a playmaker on the level of Darren Sproles. Quizz can be dropped in shallower leagues. … Battle is a low-upside handcuff. … Smith is buried on the depth chart. … Draughn’s carries will plummet with Hillis due back in Week 8. … LSH has no value. … Forsett is back on the bench with Ben Tate healthy.
Quarterbacks
Matt Hasselbeck, Titans - The Titans are hopeful that Jake Locker’s shoulder will be fine for Week 8, but Hasselbeck will make at least one more start after knocking off the Steelers. With Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick and Philip Rivers all on bye, Hasselbeck isn’t a bad target as a fill-in option versus a Bills defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week fill-in.
Josh Freeman, Bucs - Freeman posted the highest YPA (12.6), second-highest passing yards (328) and fourth-highest passer rating (124.7) of his career versus the Chiefs in Week 6. With Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams making plays down the field, Freeman is worth a look as a matchup play against a Saints defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Brandon Weeden, Browns - Weeden has been fantasy’s 12th-ranked quarterback the past three weeks, averaging a healthy 281 yards per game. His long touchdowns to Josh Gordon probably aren’t repeatable on a regular basis, but the matchup is intriguing this week against a banged-up Colts defense playing without pass rusher Robert Mathis.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Mark Sanchez, Jets - Playing the game manager role in a blowout victory, Sanchez managed just 82 yards and a pair of scores versus the Colts. Although he’s always a high risk fantasy play, desperate owners can find solace in the return to health of Dustin Keller and Stephen Hill for a plus matchup against a Patriots defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues as a matchup play.
John Skelton, Cardinals - Although Kevin Kolb’s rib X-rays came back negative, his status is in doubt for this week’s game at Minnesota. After going just 2-of-10 with the game-sealing interception in relief, Skelton is purely a desperation fantasy play in two-quarterback leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in two-quarterback leagues.
Watch List: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
Don’t chase Wilson’s Week 6 fantasy points; his matchup is daunting this week at a hacked off San Francisco defense. … Despite speculation to the contrary, Michael Vick is not getting benched in Philadelphia. Fighting for his job, Andy Reid realizes Vick still gives his team a much better chance to win. Foles is only an option in the deepest of leagues.
Cut Bait: Brady Quinn
Wide Receivers
Donnie Avery, Colts - A player with 8+ targets in every game should be owned in more than 15 percent of Yahoo leagues. Avery hasn’t made plays with any kind of consistency, but his 47 targets are in the top-25 among NFL receivers. With Joe Haden shadowing Reggie Wayne this week, Avery could be a sneaky matchup play against a defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues.
Stephen Hill, Jets - Returning from a hamstring injury, Hill played just 18 snaps versus the Colts, posting a 3/23/1 line. With another week to get closer to full health, Hill will soon vie with Jeremy Kerley for the No. 1 receiver role on a team likely to rack up garbage-time production the rest of the way. Hill is a risk/reward fantasy play against a Patriots defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Josh Gordon, Browns - The rookie has shown the ability to sprint past defenders on go routes with a pair of deep touchdowns the past two weeks. The matchup is right this week against a Colts defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, but keep expectations fairly low going forward. Gordon has yet to catch more than three passes in a game and was targeted on just four of Brandon Weeden’s 29 attempts in Week 6.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Chris Givens, Rams - The speedy rookie has pulled off the rare feat of hauling in a catch of at least 50 yards in three consecutive games. Givens has led Rams receivers in snaps in back-to-back games and offers more play-making ability than fellow starter Brandon Gibson. While we can't count on a deep touchdown every week, Givens is the Rams receiver with the most fantasy upside until Danny Amendola (clavicle) returns.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Julian Edelman, Patriots - If the Patriots are following the Aaron Hernandez pattern, Edelman (hand) should have a chance to play this week versus the Jets after returning to practice last week. He was playing in two-wide sets over Wes Welker early in the season, though the latter’s streak of four consecutive 100-yard games likely cements his status as the No. 1 receiver. Edelman could pick up extra playing time, however, if Brandon Lloyd’s shoulder injury causes him to miss time.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Santana Moss, Redskins - The Redskins are making an effort to increase Moss’ role with Pierre Garcon hindered by a painful toe injury. His upside is low because the Redskins don’t have volume in the passing game, and Moss doesn’t play full-time snaps. As long as Garcon misses game action, though, Moss is the best bet to lead Redskins receivers in production.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Domenik Hixon, Giants - Back to full health, Hixon is locked in as the No. 3 receiver after making a series of tough catches at San Francisco in Week 6. With Hakeem Nicks clearly playing at less than full strength, Hixon could be the second-most targeted receiver again in an ideal matchup versus a Redskins defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper leagues.
Devery Henderson, Saints - Henderson was coming off his first 100-yard game since Week 2 of the 2011 season as the Saints entered the bye week. Although Lance Moore’s hamstring should be close to full health, we don’t have a good read on Jimmy Graham’s ankle sprain. If either player misses practice this week, Henderson has value as a bye-week fill-in versus the Bucs.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week fill-in.
Watch List: Derek Hagan, Brandon Gibson, Mario Manningham, Vincent Brown
Hold off on Hagan for now. Darrius Heyward-Bey may have been held without a catch, but he led Raiders receivers in snaps at Atlanta. … I need to see Gibson do it again; he’s never been a playmaker. … Manningham’s Week 6 performance was fluky; the Giants concentrated on taking away Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, forcing Manningham and Randy Moss to beat them. … Brown isn’t yet ready to practice and won’t play before Week 9. He’s an option only in deep leagues.
Cut Bait: Greg Little, Titus Young, Ramses Barden, Rueben Randle, Chaz Schilens
Arguably the NFL’s least effective starting receiver, Little has been held under 20 yards in four of six games. … Young may be just as bad, topping 20 yards just once all season. … Barden and Randle are afterthoughts in the offense as long as Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon are healthy. … Schilens has fallen down the depth chart with Stephen Hill back in the lineup.
Tight Ends
Scott Chandler, Bills - Coming off his worst game of the season and now in the midst of a two-game touchdown drought, Chandler is due to find the end zone. The matchup is right this week against a Titans defense that has been torched by tight ends, surrendering the most fantasy points to the position.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a matchup play.
Dustin Keller, Jets - In a blowout victory that saw Mark Sanchez throw for just 82 yards, Keller managed just one catch in his first action since Week 1. The good news is that Keller was on the field for 90 percent of the passing plays and 75 percent of overall snaps. Arguably the most talented pass catcher on the Jets roster, Keller is worth consideration in Week 7 versus a Patriots defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.
Tony Scheffler, Lions - Scheffler torched the Eagles for 81 yards last week -- his highest total since 2009 -- and could have added a long touchdown had Matthew Stafford not overthrown him. Finally over an early-season calf injury, Scheffler appears to have bypassed Titus Young in the passing-game pecking order. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues as a bye-week fill-in against the Bears’ Cover 2 defense that often leaves the middle of the field open for tight ends.
Recommendation: Worth a look as a bye-week fill-in.
Brandon Myers, Raiders - Myers is coming off a season-high seven targets as Carson Palmer’s check-down option of choice at Atlanta. While he’s bettered the 50-yard mark in four of five games, Myers’ fantasy value has been overly dependent on two-minute drills. He’s yet to find the end zone and doesn’t make plays after the catch.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues.
David Thomas, Saints - Thomas could see an increase in snaps and targets if Jimmy Graham’s sprained ankle knocks him out of this week’s game versus the Bucs. Thomas is a low-upside fantasy option, however. Graham owners would do better to pick up one of the tight ends higher on this list.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues.
Hold Off: Joel Dreessen
Don’t run out and pick up Dreessen based on his six-catch performance at San Diego. The Broncos are on bye in Week 7, and Dreessen and Jacob Tamme typically alternate good games.
Team Defense
Vikings - Gashed by sensational rookie Robert Griffin III, the Vikes head home to find a tasty matchup with a Cardinals offense that has allowed 22 sacks the past three weeks. Even with the 38 points allowed to the Redskins, Minnesota remains a top-10 NFL defense.
Patriots - The Pats defense has been an opportunistic one, leading the NFL with 10 fumble recoveries. After a tough loss in Seattle, they return home to host a Jets offense that is dysfunctional more often than not. Shonn Greene isn’t going to run on Vince Wilfork’s defensive front.
Raiders - Coming off three interceptions of Matt Ryan, the Raiders return to Oakland to host Blaine Gabbert. The Jags are last in the league at 13.0 points per game, and the Raiders dominated the line of scrimmage in Atlanta.
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Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with
Rotoworld and his third year contributing to
NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter
@ChrisWesseling.
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Chris Wesseling